Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 15 November 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 November 2019, Liverpool 3 1 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        12   34  +18       8.32    98.25     2.02    92.55     6.55    57.76    76.74    97.05    99.49    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        12   26  +21       6.20    90.53    16.02    71.74     7.54    36.91     0.99     9.31    44.75    77.01    95.45     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          12   26  +10       3.42    76.21     0.39    72.48     7.46    27.58     1.18    10.02    47.45    77.42    95.80     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         12   25  +22      -3.66    16.49    -1.21    84.77     6.46    65.43    21.06    82.68    95.63    99.15    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        12   17   +4       2.90    73.79     7.60    48.83     7.52    -2.37     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.93     8.94     3.18R    0.31  
Arsenal          12   17   -1      -2.04    33.60    -4.77    58.99     7.67     8.49     0.01     0.29     3.39    12.02    49.77     0.15R    0.00  
Man_Utd          12   16   +4      -4.22    19.42    -1.60    59.01     7.42    14.96     0.00     0.22     3.17    11.91    51.30     0.11R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    12   16   +1       0.56    55.43     2.99    50.30     7.48    -1.56     0.00     0.01     0.27     1.36    11.89     1.83R    0.14  
Bournemouth      12   16   +0       0.94    58.50     2.78    46.54     7.37   -10.19     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.44     5.07     5.51R    0.51  
Burnley          12   15   -1       0.94    58.99     2.98    43.89     7.22   -13.24     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     2.30    10.46R    1.08  
Brighton         12   15   -2       1.63    65.01     3.42    41.57     7.04   -16.49     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     1.12    16.80R    2.00  
Crystal_Palace   12   15   -6       1.22    61.70    -1.69    47.92     7.42   -11.06     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.56     6.32     4.40R    0.34  
Newcastle        12   15   -7       1.31    62.40    -2.45    46.06     7.24   -14.17     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.30     3.86     6.43R    0.57  
Tottenham        12   14   +1      -6.71     7.27    -5.45    60.70     7.62    18.27     0.01     0.40     5.38    18.12    61.06     0.08R    0.01  
Everton          12   14   -5      -2.61    30.18    -5.02    46.50     7.35   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.50     4.88     5.56R    0.52  
West_Ham         12   13   -6      -2.29    32.18    -3.82    41.62     7.28   -19.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10     1.34    17.92R    2.46  
Aston_Villa      12   11   -3      -1.60    37.66     4.84    38.62     7.59   -17.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.70    31.27R    6.57  
Watford          12    8  -15      -4.27    17.24    -7.28    33.96     7.06   -32.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    58.35R   17.35  
Southampton      12    8  -18      -2.01    33.72    -6.18    34.84     7.14   -34.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13    53.71R   16.11  
Norwich          12    7  -17      -2.84    26.85    -3.56    28.31     7.02   -45.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    84.24R   52.03  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 November 2019, Cardiff 0 1 Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       16   33  +12       4.77    79.68     2.14    85.54     8.51    29.56    42.64    62.74    92.17    71.54P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         16   31  +14       5.10    80.94     7.95    77.64     8.70    22.20    12.58    27.09    70.69    37.89P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    16   31  +12       4.72    79.10     5.60    80.68     8.37    24.59    19.15    39.24    82.22    51.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         16   29   +6       4.60    78.63     2.33    74.71     8.47    12.82     6.14    15.59    57.47    25.74P    0.07R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   15   28   +7       6.51    87.90     5.51    73.91     8.63    12.12     5.09    13.62    53.52    22.39P    0.10R    0.00  
Bristol_City    16   28   +4       4.66    78.98     1.96    72.01     8.49     8.26     3.67     9.64    44.06    17.05P    0.18R    0.01  
Fulham          16   26   +7       0.46    52.84     1.58    71.39     8.82    13.26     3.68     9.93    43.14    18.68P    0.23R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed       16   25   +7       1.09    57.91     3.99    67.87     8.41     9.59     1.33     4.15    27.58     9.65P    0.54R    0.05  
Brentford       16   24   +8      -1.33    41.10     2.99    71.70     8.51    17.82     3.51     9.77    45.21    19.78P    0.16R    0.01  
QPR             16   24   -4       4.94    80.79     0.98    58.69     8.37   -15.09     0.10     0.35     4.75     1.01P    8.00R    1.18  
Charlton        16   22   +3       1.29    59.42     4.83    62.03     8.65     1.54     0.27     0.96    10.72     3.03P    3.66R    0.38  
Hull            16   22   +2      -0.58    46.40     1.22    63.60     8.55     2.37     0.39     1.45    14.07     4.26P    2.43R    0.31  
Birmingham      16   22   -5       2.44    67.50    -1.64    59.23     8.32   -10.64     0.07     0.36     5.08     1.27P    6.92R    0.81  
Cardiff         16   21   +0      -2.71    32.72    -2.60    64.63     8.79     3.74     0.65     2.26    17.71     6.40P    1.91R    0.23  
Millwall        16   21   -3       1.60    61.89     0.65    58.06     8.30    -8.77     0.05     0.23     4.06     0.89P    8.62R    1.32  
Derby           16   21   -3      -2.44    33.86    -5.29    65.43     8.52     1.93     0.58     2.16    18.57     6.49P    1.48R    0.13  
Reading         15   18   -1       0.04    51.31     3.00    55.06     8.50    -9.05     0.04     0.16     2.38     0.63P   15.89R    3.28  
Blackburn       16   18   -4      -2.42    34.33    -1.35    56.89     8.45    -7.56     0.03     0.19     3.38     0.86P   11.28R    1.94  
Huddersfield    16   16   -6      -3.06    30.25    -1.80    51.37     8.37   -13.86     0.00     0.03     0.78     0.19P   28.34R    6.64  
Wigan           16   15  -11      -2.95    30.24    -5.31    50.38     8.08   -19.19     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.07P   33.52R    8.08  
Luton           16   14   -8      -4.86    20.62    -2.72    49.53     8.59   -17.70     0.00     0.01     0.54     0.13P   37.57R   10.58  
Middlesbrough   16   13   -8      -8.85     5.30    -8.23    54.04     8.10    -7.39     0.01     0.06     1.25     0.33P   17.35R    3.24  
Stoke           16   11  -12      -7.81     7.49    -7.53    47.93     8.23   -18.02     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.03P   44.04R   13.54  
Barnsley        16    9  -17      -7.53     8.19    -8.24    40.55     8.26   -32.55     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    77.68R   48.25  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 November 2019, Portsmouth 4 1 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Ipswich              15   33  +15       6.77    88.78     6.58    84.02     8.35    31.98    46.13    65.08    92.24    72.54P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              16   33  +11       9.44    95.24     8.55    71.27     8.02    10.65     4.22    10.88    46.38    16.77P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         17   28  +16      -1.31    41.01     6.32    74.07     7.89    30.82     8.34    20.46    63.77    32.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           16   26  +14       1.26    58.68     9.68    71.83     8.14    25.55     5.67    14.06    52.05    23.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       15   26   +8       2.05    64.28     2.91    69.83     8.30    14.16     3.12     8.97    41.07    16.24P    0.02R    0.00  
Coventry             16   26   +2       3.44    73.25     1.13    63.31     7.89     0.79     0.43     1.61    13.88     3.87P    0.14R    0.00  
Sunderland           15   25   +6      -1.75    36.86    -3.77    75.31     8.23    22.05    10.55    24.43    67.05    37.73P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            16   25   +3       1.91    63.14     1.27    64.48     7.86     4.83     0.59     2.14    17.93     5.32P    0.11R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       16   25   +0       2.55    67.78    -0.90    61.32     7.81    -2.96     0.25     0.85     9.28     2.26P    0.37R    0.00  
Rotherham            15   24  +11      -0.92    43.53     4.27    74.54     8.54    27.77    10.33    23.57    64.76    35.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           16   24   -2       2.45    67.21    -1.84    61.35     7.71    -3.10     0.18     0.71     9.00     2.26P    0.22R    0.00  
Doncaster            14   23   +8       0.20    51.30     2.58    72.08     8.50    20.41     6.00    14.88    52.73    25.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Portsmouth           15   21   +4      -3.98    23.21    -2.91    67.53     8.31    14.09     1.98     5.69    31.59    12.86P    0.06R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        14   20   +3      -0.47    46.82     1.14    67.93     8.48    13.35     2.15     6.43    33.17    12.97P    0.06R    0.00  
Rochdale             17   19   -8      -0.62    46.87    -1.57    48.25     7.48   -21.24     0.00     0.01     0.25     0.04P   12.01R    0.38  
Gillingham           16   18   +0      -2.90    31.19     1.61    55.81     8.01    -1.30     0.04     0.15     2.89     0.71P    2.15R    0.04  
Lincoln_City         16   18   -3      -1.08    43.53     1.39    53.38     8.12    -7.42     0.02     0.08     1.54     0.36P    4.09R    0.13  
Tranmere             15   16   -8       0.93    58.66     1.69    45.68     8.08   -24.77     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.03P   22.56R    1.30  
Accrington_Stanley   16   15   -9      -2.75    32.01    -2.47    47.23     7.67   -18.95     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   15.32R    0.74  
AFC_Wimbledon        16   13   -6      -5.17    17.23    -0.06    45.61     7.73   -14.68     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   20.25R    1.20  
MK_Dons              16   13  -12      -4.71    19.85    -5.51    41.70     7.73   -27.44     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   40.21R    3.73  
Southend             17    5  -31     -10.64     1.69   -17.30    30.10     7.19   -53.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.16R   40.97  
Bolton               13   -2  -22      -1.85    36.31   -12.78    28.24     8.16   -41.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.23R   51.50  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 November 2019, Bradford 2 0 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Forest_Green     16   31  +10       6.04    85.47     5.54    77.94     8.41    18.61    17.77    46.86    80.51    55.19P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         16   30   +9       2.60    66.67     0.97    80.80     8.68    23.43    30.04    60.40    87.70    68.44P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon          17   30   +8       3.59    72.58     3.44    75.03     8.31    15.89    10.34    33.20    70.27    42.65P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            16   30   +8       6.24    85.70     5.30    74.06     8.51    12.36     8.61    29.04    65.28    36.88P    0.01R    0.01  
Exeter           17   29   +3       3.29    70.86    -0.58    73.59     8.25    10.22     7.35    26.31    63.20    35.61P    0.01R    0.01  
Cheltenham       15   28  +13       5.32    82.68     9.90    73.22     8.69    16.98     8.13    27.42    62.37    35.10P    0.01R    0.01  
Newport_County   16   27   +4       4.76    79.79     3.25    68.91     8.36     5.51     2.74    11.98    40.79    18.28P    0.06R    0.06  
Colchester       17   26   +6      -0.36    47.54     1.51    70.64     8.27    13.28     4.29    17.40    50.78    26.41P    0.02R    0.02  
Northampton      17   25   +4      -0.36    47.86     0.95    66.90     8.34     7.20     1.63     8.70    33.34    14.73P    0.10R    0.10  
Port_Vale        17   25   +0       3.72    74.27     2.64    61.46     8.04    -4.38     0.32     2.03    12.66     4.09P    0.51R    0.51  
Salford_City     17   24   -4       5.90    84.40     4.18    54.12     8.03   -19.04     0.02     0.25     2.49     0.57P    4.97R    4.97  
Cambridge_Utd    17   23   +5       1.26    59.15     6.99    60.66     8.07     2.37     0.24     1.82    11.81     3.90P    0.67R    0.67  
Plymouth         16   23   +4      -2.87    31.40    -1.96    72.34     8.75    16.28     7.01    24.39    59.22    35.02P    0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        17   20   +1      -7.52    10.26    -5.34    65.18     8.28     8.94     1.09     6.28    26.89    12.57P    0.18R    0.18  
Macclesfield     16   20   -3       2.67    69.63     3.73    51.64     7.98   -16.97     0.01     0.11     1.31     0.26P    8.36R    8.36  
Leyton_Orient    17   20   -4       0.46    54.32     1.92    52.23     8.21   -15.68     0.01     0.19     1.80     0.46P    7.88R    7.88  
Crawley_Town     17   20   -5       0.42    54.00     0.91    55.30     8.12   -12.08     0.04     0.32     3.33     0.82P    3.99R    3.99  
Grimsby          15   19   +0       0.38    53.90     2.53    56.61     8.35    -6.89     0.09     0.67     5.40     1.56P    2.72R    2.72  
Carlisle         17   18  -11      -3.42    28.51    -7.95    55.58     8.28   -14.42     0.04     0.45     3.83     1.19P    3.92R    3.92  
Oldham           17   16   -8      -6.87    12.16    -7.24    56.38     8.30    -7.07     0.04     0.53     4.82     1.62P    3.14R    3.14  
Scunthorpe       17   15   -4     -10.77     3.70    -7.67    58.45     8.57     1.42     0.17     1.36     8.88     3.65P    1.88R    1.88  
Walsall          17   15  -13      -6.76    12.99   -10.95    53.96     8.28   -13.78     0.02     0.24     2.61     0.83P    5.59R    5.59  
Stevenage        17   13   -9      -8.38     6.89    -6.43    49.40     7.99   -13.38     0.00     0.04     0.65     0.16P   13.05R   13.05  
Morecambe        17   13  -14      -4.73    20.41    -5.63    43.01     7.72   -28.79     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   42.92R   42.92  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 November 2019, Stockport 1 0 Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Bromley            20   36  +10       5.57    79.61     5.58    75.42     7.90    15.49    10.73    58.30    21.14P    0.04R    0.00  
Yeovil             19   35  +11       1.18    56.65    -0.62    82.53     8.08    26.64    39.89    85.85    55.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Halifax            20   35   +4       8.24    90.01     4.71    70.70     7.51     4.31     2.87    32.40     8.14P    0.17R    0.00  
Barrow             19   34  +10       5.47    80.18     6.37    73.45     7.89    13.55     7.22    48.23    16.13P    0.07R    0.00  
Torquay            20   34   +8       6.34    81.82     8.12    70.67     8.17     9.07     4.43    34.89    10.09P    0.38R    0.01  
Solihull_Moors     20   33   +9       1.00    56.04     2.24    74.39     7.64    17.44     8.18    53.94    20.54P    0.05R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     20   32   +3       2.27    63.54    -0.35    70.48     7.82     7.03     3.21    33.11     9.88P    0.30R    0.00  
Notts_County       20   31  +12      -4.95    22.71    -0.91    78.21     7.71    29.34    19.75    73.56    39.67P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking             20   31   +4       5.18    77.74     6.59    65.28     7.98     1.73     0.96    14.58     3.49P    1.88R    0.05  
Barnet             20   28   +1      -0.76    45.86    -1.07    65.75     7.62     4.20     0.79    14.87     3.95P    1.20R    0.04  
Eastleigh          20   28   -1       1.62    60.24     0.82    62.73     7.64    -2.51     0.31     7.77     1.76P    3.38R    0.08  
Dover_Athletic     19   28   -1       1.37    58.69    -1.82    63.64     7.84    -3.26     0.56     9.95     2.45P    2.83R    0.08  
Stockport          20   28   -8       6.66    84.70     1.41    55.67     7.66   -20.01     0.03     1.31     0.22P   19.16R    1.21  
Hartlepool         20   27   +0       0.39    52.96     1.31    61.52     7.67    -1.87     0.22     6.08     1.36P    4.82R    0.17  
Dag_&_Red          20   27   -2       0.24    52.02    -1.11    62.16     7.60    -2.62     0.26     6.58     1.55P    3.84R    0.12  
Boreham_Wood       20   26   +4      -1.53    41.26     3.86    62.09     7.63     4.72     0.27     7.18     1.65P    3.59R    0.12  
Maidenhead         20   25   +1       0.76    55.59     5.68    55.78     7.42    -6.22     0.01     1.17     0.20P   16.03R    0.94  
Chesterfield       19   22   -5      -4.46    24.74    -5.59    59.61     7.91    -4.32     0.15     4.11     1.04P    8.16R    0.53  
Aldershot          20   22   -5      -1.53    41.59     0.32    51.97     7.26   -12.86     0.00     0.29     0.05P   32.32R    2.57  
AFC_Fylde          19   21  -10      -6.45    15.87   -11.88    59.66     7.98    -7.72     0.14     4.20     1.15P    8.58R    0.42  
Wrexham            20   19   -7      -8.71     8.73    -7.65    55.48     7.55    -5.53     0.02     1.09     0.30P   16.88R    1.22  
Ebbsfleet_United   20   17  -10      -9.14     7.93    -7.70    51.82     7.69   -11.61     0.00     0.36     0.08P   33.38R    3.18  
Sutton_United      19   16   -7      -7.82    10.17    -3.80    49.33     7.73   -12.43     0.00     0.19     0.03P   46.06R    6.00  
Chorley            20   13  -21      -3.76    27.83    -4.49    34.79     7.02   -42.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.88R   83.25