Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 8 November 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 8 November 2019, Norwich 0 2 Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        11   31  +16       7.02    96.84     0.80    90.18     6.84    53.58    60.01    94.84    99.09    99.88    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         11   25  +24      -2.43    23.15     0.62    86.83     6.67    68.65    38.08    89.76    97.71    99.55    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        11   23  +19       5.12    86.86    14.86    69.77     7.79    34.18     0.76     6.14    38.16    67.26    91.81     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea          11   23   +8       2.50    70.20    -0.54    71.01     7.71    25.56     1.04     7.74    43.81    70.83    93.03     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          11   17   +1      -1.34    38.40    -3.94    60.84     7.90    11.33     0.05     0.58     7.46    20.21    58.87     0.09R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        11   16   +4       2.86    73.81     6.97    48.02     7.72    -4.21     0.00     0.01     0.17     1.02     7.81     4.37R    0.40  
Bournemouth      11   16   +1       1.92    66.87     3.16    48.44     7.66    -8.01     0.00     0.01     0.24     1.11     8.04     3.98R    0.31  
Brighton         11   15   +0       2.28    70.63     4.17    42.54     7.22   -14.82     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14     1.62    14.44R    1.61  
Crystal_Palace   11   15   -4       1.87    67.03    -0.82    48.81     7.60    -9.79     0.00     0.00     0.23     1.11     8.14     3.84R    0.28  
Man_Utd          11   13   +2      -4.91    14.65    -2.23    57.73     7.62    13.30     0.01     0.18     2.99    10.56    43.11     0.22R    0.01  
Tottenham        11   13   +1      -5.83     9.29    -4.72    62.25     7.79    20.02     0.05     0.73     9.67    26.06    67.10     0.04R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    11   13   +0      -0.59    45.61     2.65    48.78     7.68    -2.35     0.00     0.01     0.22     1.09     8.81     3.48R    0.33  
West_Ham         11   13   -3      -1.50    37.65    -1.71    43.84     7.60   -14.76     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.34     2.80    11.95R    1.52  
Burnley          11   12   -4      -0.20    49.60     0.76    41.31     7.43   -17.68     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     1.26    20.13R    2.98  
Newcastle        11   12   -8      -0.06    50.76    -3.18    44.24     7.46   -15.49     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.19     2.54    11.14R    1.17  
Aston_Villa      11   11   -2      -0.64    45.58     5.09    39.87     7.79   -16.67     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.11     1.13    26.74R    4.90  
Everton          11   11   -6      -3.96    19.58    -5.56    45.06     7.59   -11.70     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.40     3.68     9.30R    1.16  
Watford          12    8  -15      -4.20    17.89    -7.18    33.95     7.06   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    58.26R   17.61  
Southampton      11    8  -17      -1.00    42.44    -5.84    36.26     7.45   -32.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.19    46.48R   12.76  
Norwich          12    7  -17      -2.69    27.88    -3.36    27.96     6.91   -46.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.55R   54.97  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 4 November 2019, Stoke 0 2 West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       15   30  +11       3.44    72.93     1.60    84.04     8.82    28.80    40.03    59.73    89.75    68.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         15   28  +12       4.25    77.48     7.16    75.84     8.87    19.84    11.08    24.05    64.78    34.28P    0.06R    0.00  
Leeds_United    15   28  +11       3.57    73.74     5.33    79.67     8.56    24.45    19.80    39.00    80.00    51.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         15   28   +6       4.88    80.73     2.21    74.88     8.69    12.53     8.45    19.32    59.87    29.31P    0.07R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   14   25   +6       5.17    83.18     4.98    72.36     8.84    11.20     4.99    12.54    48.90    20.75P    0.26R    0.02  
Bristol_City    15   25   +3       3.18    71.60     1.19    69.62     8.77     6.05     2.92     7.78    36.23    14.32P    0.54R    0.03  
Sheff_Wed       15   24   +7       1.76    62.38     4.40    68.24     8.52     9.66     1.96     5.61    31.14    11.48P    0.58R    0.05  
Fulham          15   23   +6      -0.77    44.76     1.15    69.28     9.06    11.52     3.05     8.43    36.70    15.87P    0.71R    0.07  
QPR             15   23   -4       5.35    83.63     1.03    58.81     8.56   -15.40     0.11     0.48     5.86     1.30P    9.02R    1.41  
Charlton        15   22   +4       2.42    67.11     5.43    63.37     8.83     2.58     0.62     2.02    15.39     4.83P    3.20R    0.35  
Hull            15   22   +3       0.49    53.73     1.70    65.09     8.80     3.39     0.93     3.08    20.39     6.84P    2.08R    0.20  
Birmingham      15   22   -4       3.56    74.84    -0.93    60.90     8.49    -9.28     0.21     0.79     8.55     2.16P    5.34R    0.70  
Brentford       15   21   +5      -2.02    36.22     1.34    68.76     8.76    12.81     2.50     6.98    33.79    14.21P    0.66R    0.05  
Cardiff         15   21   +1      -1.42    40.52    -1.71    67.02     9.05     6.24     1.74     5.05    27.39    10.95P    1.37R    0.15  
Derby           15   21   -2      -1.27    41.40    -4.53    66.96     8.70     3.12     1.38     4.17    25.76     9.58P    1.09R    0.12  
Blackburn       15   18   -3      -1.47    40.34    -0.98    57.52     8.70    -7.73     0.10     0.38     4.78     1.36P   11.45R    2.16  
Millwall        15   18   -4       0.17    52.19    -0.03    56.08     8.45   -10.31     0.05     0.21     3.08     0.75P   14.07R    2.57  
Huddersfield    15   16   -4      -2.52    33.16    -1.07    52.80     8.53   -11.75     0.01     0.09     1.54     0.39P   24.34R    5.66  
Reading         14   15   -4      -0.91    44.12     1.07    52.32     8.57   -13.77     0.02     0.07     1.25     0.29P   27.08R    7.09  
Wigan           15   15   -8      -2.42    33.38    -3.56    52.98     8.40   -14.27     0.02     0.07     1.25     0.30P   24.42R    5.67  
Luton           15   14   -5      -4.32    23.15    -1.06    52.22     8.98   -12.45     0.01     0.08     1.66     0.40P   28.08R    7.65  
Middlesbrough   15   12   -8      -8.49     5.39    -8.23    54.35     8.29    -7.40     0.01     0.07     1.77     0.55P   17.75R    3.74  
Barnsley        15    9  -15      -6.69    10.35    -7.33    43.19     8.65   -28.14     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.03P   67.97R   36.70  
Stoke           15    8  -14      -9.10     3.40    -9.19    45.03     8.25   -21.71     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   59.85R   25.63  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 November 2019, Portsmouth 4 1 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Ipswich              15   33  +15       6.86    89.24     6.73    83.77     8.25    31.58    45.19    64.26    92.13    71.89P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              16   33  +11       9.47    95.25     8.61    71.19     7.91    10.63     4.08    10.66    45.46    16.45P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         17   28  +16      -1.38    40.40     6.21    74.10     7.86    30.88     8.50    20.65    63.98    32.34P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           16   26  +14       1.24    58.50     9.71    71.79     8.12    25.52     5.73    13.81    52.13    22.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       15   26   +8       2.07    64.40     2.94    69.78     8.30    14.10     3.35     8.98    40.81    16.14P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry             16   26   +2       3.41    72.81     1.06    63.44     7.82     0.98     0.43     1.62    14.28     4.06P    0.12R    0.00  
Sunderland           15   25   +6      -1.78    36.84    -3.84    75.38     8.15    22.14    10.77    24.71    67.50    38.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            16   25   +3       1.88    62.99     1.22    64.63     7.79     4.99     0.60     2.14    17.93     5.43P    0.09R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       16   25   +0       2.54    67.73    -0.90    61.36     7.85    -2.90     0.22     0.92     9.37     2.47P    0.32R    0.00  
Rotherham            15   24  +11      -0.92    43.13     4.25    74.63     8.54    27.88    10.73    23.93    64.72    35.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           16   24   -2       2.48    67.61    -1.78    61.26     7.76    -3.22     0.17     0.73     8.85     2.32P    0.30R    0.00  
Doncaster            14   23   +8       0.20    51.15     2.57    72.27     8.41    20.68     5.99    15.16    53.20    25.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Portsmouth           15   21   +4      -3.96    23.19    -2.91    67.57     8.32    14.19     1.92     5.83    31.46    13.03P    0.07R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        14   20   +3      -0.52    46.38     1.08    67.92     8.46    13.32     2.29     6.37    33.05    12.93P    0.05R    0.00  
Rochdale             17   19   -8      -0.54    47.37    -1.43    48.05     7.44   -21.59     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P   12.61R    0.43  
Gillingham           16   18   +0      -2.93    30.70     1.56    55.78     7.97    -1.35     0.03     0.16     2.84     0.65P    2.06R    0.04  
Lincoln_City         16   18   -3      -1.10    43.29     1.39    53.50     8.10    -7.27     0.01     0.07     1.64     0.35P    3.88R    0.12  
Tranmere             15   16   -8       0.95    58.66     1.63    45.67     8.02   -24.70     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   22.59R    1.24  
Accrington_Stanley   16   15   -9      -2.82    31.57    -2.59    47.23     7.72   -18.92     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.03P   15.11R    0.79  
AFC_Wimbledon        16   13   -6      -5.23    16.85    -0.16    45.67     7.72   -14.57     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   19.86R    1.27  
MK_Dons              16   13  -12      -4.75    20.01    -5.58    41.68     7.75   -27.39     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   40.32R    3.84  
Southend             17    5  -31     -10.58     1.64   -17.15    30.06     7.20   -53.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.41R   40.38  
Bolton               13   -2  -22      -1.77    37.16   -12.64    28.08     8.18   -41.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.17R   51.90  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 November 2019, Bradford 2 0 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Forest_Green     16   31  +10       6.17    85.85     5.72    77.73     8.41    18.30    17.62    45.90    79.71    54.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Bradford         16   30   +9       2.58    66.54     0.92    80.87     8.66    23.50    30.59    61.34    87.84    69.36P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          17   30   +8       3.68    73.13     3.56    74.83     8.32    15.58    10.23    32.70    69.64    42.01P    0.01R    0.01  
Crewe            16   30   +8       6.33    85.94     5.42    73.94     8.49    12.09     8.65    28.71    64.72    36.26P    0.01R    0.01  
Exeter           17   29   +3       3.43    71.69    -0.37    73.47     8.23    10.01     7.08    26.01    62.63    35.27P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       15   28  +13       5.30    82.70     9.90    73.15     8.70    16.93     8.11    27.41    62.33    35.13P    0.01R    0.01  
Newport_County   16   27   +4       4.71    79.82     3.20    68.84     8.23     5.45     2.46    11.91    40.46    18.05P    0.05R    0.05  
Colchester       17   26   +6      -0.48    46.79     1.37    70.77     8.24    13.47     4.29    17.99    51.93    27.23P    0.01R    0.01  
Northampton      17   25   +4      -0.42    47.50     0.84    66.95     8.23     7.32     1.60     8.66    33.37    14.73P    0.07R    0.07  
Port_Vale        17   25   +0       3.74    74.54     2.68    61.44     8.00    -4.41     0.31     2.04    12.58     4.08P    0.51R    0.51  
Salford_City     17   24   -4       5.88    84.51     4.15    54.17     7.96   -18.95     0.04     0.29     2.58     0.65P    4.77R    4.77  
Cambridge_Utd    17   23   +5       1.17    58.71     6.86    60.80     8.04     2.59     0.28     1.91    12.14     3.98P    0.62R    0.62  
Plymouth         16   23   +4      -2.79    32.17    -1.88    72.21     8.77    16.08     7.12    24.49    58.58    34.75P    0.03R    0.03  
Mansfield        17   20   +1      -7.60    10.03    -5.46    65.32     8.34     9.19     1.18     6.59    27.85    13.22P    0.19R    0.19  
Macclesfield     16   20   -3       2.61    69.22     3.56    51.82     7.99   -16.63     0.01     0.14     1.42     0.34P    8.18R    8.18  
Leyton_Orient    17   20   -4       0.60    54.99     2.12    52.06     8.23   -15.96     0.01     0.15     1.74     0.46P    8.14R    8.14  
Crawley_Town     17   20   -5       0.47    54.29     0.95    55.29     8.14   -12.14     0.04     0.34     3.51     0.90P    3.95R    3.95  
Grimsby          15   19   +0       0.31    53.09     2.43    56.79     8.37    -6.55     0.07     0.77     5.81     1.69P    2.65R    2.65  
Carlisle         17   18  -11      -3.39    28.77    -7.89    55.44     8.22   -14.59     0.03     0.39     3.57     1.08P    4.01R    4.01  
Oldham           17   16   -8      -6.84    12.20    -7.26    56.37     8.27    -7.04     0.05     0.56     4.77     1.58P    2.97R    2.97  
Scunthorpe       17   15   -4     -10.86     3.78    -7.84    58.62     8.65     1.73     0.19     1.45     9.48     3.94P    1.98R    1.98  
Walsall          17   15  -13      -6.74    12.94   -10.93    53.79     8.38   -13.96     0.02     0.21     2.62     0.80P    6.23R    6.23  
Stevenage        17   13   -9      -8.38     7.01    -6.45    49.63     8.10   -13.05     0.00     0.04     0.68     0.20P   12.55R   12.55  
Morecambe        17   13  -14      -4.77    20.20    -5.62    42.92     7.72   -28.94     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.02P   43.07R   43.07  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 November 2019, Hartlepool 0 1 Solihull_Moors; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Bromley            20   36  +10       5.53    79.16     5.47    75.62     7.88    15.78    10.91    58.61    21.00P    0.03R    0.00  
Yeovil             19   35  +11       1.25    56.90    -0.50    82.57     8.11    26.71    39.71    85.66    54.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Halifax            20   35   +4       8.30    90.10     4.84    70.67     7.50     4.23     2.85    31.83     8.09P    0.13R    0.00  
Barrow             19   34  +10       5.45    80.07     6.38    73.41     7.95    13.48     7.14    47.73    15.90P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            20   34   +8       6.47    82.32     8.29    70.48     8.10     8.79     3.86    33.46     9.29P    0.36R    0.01  
Solihull_Moors     20   33   +9       0.94    55.49     2.19    74.51     7.73    17.58     8.36    54.27    20.49P    0.04R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     20   32   +3       2.15    62.91    -0.53    70.62     7.75     7.24     3.43    33.16    10.10P    0.25R    0.00  
Notts_County       20   31  +12      -5.07    22.09    -1.08    78.35     7.74    29.57    19.82    73.87    40.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking             20   31   +4       5.33    78.39     6.81    65.05     8.01     1.43     0.88    13.82     3.33P    1.88R    0.05  
Barnet             20   28   +1      -0.81    45.58    -1.13    65.97     7.62     4.45     0.79    15.21     4.21P    1.12R    0.04  
Eastleigh          20   28   -1       1.51    59.68     0.63    62.81     7.66    -2.36     0.34     7.58     1.63P    3.05R    0.09  
Dover_Athletic     19   28   -1       1.34    58.74    -1.81    63.64     7.88    -3.28     0.62     9.93     2.59P    2.70R    0.07  
Hartlepool         20   27   +0       0.28    52.26     1.18    61.51     7.73    -1.88     0.21     5.88     1.28P    4.53R    0.17  
Dag_&_Red          19   27   -1       1.60    60.48    -0.08    64.12     7.82    -0.82     0.49    10.65     2.57P    2.55R    0.06  
Boreham_Wood       20   26   +4      -1.40    42.06     4.04    61.91     7.65     4.47     0.26     6.75     1.65P    3.57R    0.11  
Maidenhead         20   25   +1       0.53    54.12     5.30    56.12     7.44    -5.69     0.03     1.20     0.24P   14.07R    0.83  
Stockport          19   25   -9       5.33    80.80     1.06    53.12     7.77   -22.64     0.00     0.63     0.08P   29.41R    2.66  
Chesterfield       19   22   -5      -4.60    24.07    -5.74    59.56     7.88    -4.37     0.13     4.04     1.02P    7.83R    0.38  
Aldershot          20   22   -5      -1.48    41.96     0.40    51.85     7.30   -13.09     0.00     0.26     0.06P   31.75R    2.70  
AFC_Fylde          19   21  -10      -6.38    16.31   -11.84    59.58     8.00    -7.83     0.14     4.04     1.11P    8.40R    0.45  
Wrexham            20   19   -7      -8.65     8.88    -7.52    55.26     7.45    -5.84     0.02     0.84     0.20P   16.54R    1.23  
Ebbsfleet_United   20   17  -10      -9.16     7.95    -7.77    51.98     7.79   -11.41     0.00     0.40     0.10P   31.76R    3.38  
Sutton_United      19   16   -7      -7.90     9.85    -3.94    49.53     7.73   -12.19     0.00     0.19     0.06P   43.66R    5.62  
Chorley            20   13  -21      -3.85    27.39    -4.64    34.86     7.03   -42.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.28R   82.17