Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 25 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 25 October 2019, Southampton 0 9 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         9   25  +14       5.28    93.57     1.33    88.61     7.33    54.80    53.03    93.44    98.31    99.56    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        10   20  +17       3.90    81.71    13.52    67.53     8.06    31.07     0.58     4.92    31.49    55.16    84.61     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City          9   19  +20      -3.17    16.30     1.51    87.08     6.80    72.92    45.35    91.98    98.12    99.51    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           9   17   +5       0.66    55.95    -1.21    68.00     8.13    22.61     0.62     5.25    32.99    55.97    84.68     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal           9   15   +1       0.19    51.46    -2.79    63.10     8.33    13.72     0.18     1.83    15.02    31.46    65.96     0.06R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    9   14   -2       2.72    75.96    -0.19    50.39     8.06    -8.14     0.00     0.05     0.69     2.56    11.67     3.03R    0.32  
Tottenham         9   12   +2      -4.40    12.82    -4.31    63.74     8.22    20.59     0.21     2.00    16.59    34.93    70.39     0.04R    0.00  
Burnley           9   12   +1       1.27    63.39     3.68    45.11     7.88   -10.58     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.49     3.84     9.70R    1.53  
Sheff_Utd         9   12   +1       2.14    71.49     4.84    44.70     8.07   -10.52     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.56     3.68    11.37R    1.97  
Bournemouth       9   12   +0       0.73    57.65     2.53    46.27     8.07   -11.07     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.93     5.39     8.13R    1.26  
West_Ham          9   12   -2       0.34    54.22    -0.58    47.06     8.07   -11.26     0.00     0.02     0.28     1.09     6.24     6.84R    0.93  
Aston_Villa       9   11   +2       0.23    53.42     4.99    40.76     8.14   -17.39     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.25     1.55    24.54R    5.95  
Wolverhampton     9   11   +0      -0.26    48.35     2.14    48.63     8.12    -3.84     0.00     0.02     0.34     1.57     8.73     4.74R    0.63  
Man_Utd           9   10   +1      -4.32    15.36    -1.89    58.58     8.06    14.00     0.03     0.46     5.31    14.74    44.86     0.23R    0.02  
Everton           9   10   -5      -2.55    27.15    -5.07    46.74     8.07   -10.71     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.98     5.84     7.40R    1.12  
Brighton          9    9   -3      -0.34    48.12     2.20    38.64     7.58   -18.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.61    31.47R    7.80  
Newcastle         9    8   -9      -1.35    37.33    -4.25    42.36     7.82   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.16     1.61    17.41R    3.42  
Southampton      10    8  -16      -0.61    46.32    -7.34    35.38     7.43   -37.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.14    51.27R   18.25  
Norwich           9    7  -11      -0.33    48.91    -0.56    33.75     7.92   -36.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    59.21R   26.23  
Watford           9    4  -16      -4.52    10.77    -8.57    32.64     7.77   -36.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07    64.54R   30.56  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 23 October 2019, Bristol_City 2 1 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       13   26   +9       3.30    73.72     1.36    83.40     9.18    27.67    38.71    57.57    87.83    66.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    13   24   +9       3.25    73.62     4.74    78.42     9.05    22.61    17.62    34.80    74.81    46.22P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       13   23   +8       3.14    73.03     4.97    70.53     9.02    11.45     4.27    10.49    41.18    17.75P    0.40R    0.02  
Bristol_City    13   23   +3       4.34    80.02     1.76    71.31     9.16     7.44     5.04    11.93    44.01    19.24P    0.40R    0.05  
QPR             13   23   +0       6.63    89.80     2.61    61.93     9.04   -10.74     0.51     1.70    12.16     3.33P    5.20R    0.79  
Preston         13   22  +10       1.68    62.73     6.23    72.67     9.33    18.00     7.04    16.38    51.69    25.28P    0.29R    0.02  
Fulham          13   22   +9       0.32    51.83     3.14    73.76     9.67    18.87     9.27    20.38    56.15    30.43P    0.27R    0.03  
Nott'm_Forest   13   22   +5       3.78    76.97     4.34    70.20     8.97     9.39     3.51     9.27    39.63    16.18P    0.47R    0.03  
Swansea         13   22   +4       2.26    66.93     1.17    71.01     9.10     9.59     4.52    11.07    43.39    19.20P    0.46R    0.04  
Charlton        13   21   +5       3.49    74.98     5.40    65.01     9.37     3.27     1.43     3.76    21.66     7.53P    2.82R    0.39  
Birmingham      13   19   -3       3.21    74.64    -0.22    60.57     8.91    -8.22     0.34     1.06     9.16     2.57P    6.70R    1.05  
Brentford       13   18   +4      -1.67    37.35     1.23    69.21     9.21    12.79     3.43     8.65    37.12    16.19P    0.86R    0.10  
Cardiff         13   18   +0      -1.23    41.22    -2.03    66.25     9.54     4.41     1.94     5.33    26.07    10.71P    2.16R    0.31  
Derby           13   18   -2      -1.37    39.70    -4.27    66.73     9.18     3.13     1.65     4.90    26.34    10.53P    1.75R    0.19  
Hull            13   16   -2      -1.89    36.57    -1.93    58.59     9.20    -6.86     0.27     0.88     7.29     2.25P   10.52R    2.17  
Blackburn       13   15   -3      -2.18    34.05    -1.75    56.78     9.13    -8.41     0.11     0.45     5.07     1.44P   14.32R    3.27  
Millwall        13   15   -5       0.23    53.02    -0.51    55.09     8.75   -12.25     0.05     0.19     2.81     0.70P   18.09R    4.19  
Luton           13   14   -3      -2.22    34.39    -0.06    55.80     9.51    -9.08     0.15     0.55     4.83     1.42P   17.62R    4.34  
Wigan           13   14   -7      -1.19    41.51    -3.33    54.32     8.71   -13.71     0.03     0.15     2.21     0.52P   20.54R    5.01  
Reading         13   12   -5      -2.18    34.24     0.59    50.19     8.79   -15.51     0.01     0.05     0.88     0.19P   36.09R   11.77  
Middlesbrough   13   11   -6      -7.35     6.77    -7.00    56.80     8.74    -4.48     0.08     0.34     4.24     1.43P   12.29R    2.54  
Huddersfield    13   10   -6      -5.39    13.90    -2.46    47.99     8.97   -16.17     0.01     0.03     0.64     0.14P   45.98R   17.32  
Stoke           13    8  -10      -7.50     5.95    -6.80    48.97     8.87   -15.98     0.01     0.04     0.64     0.18P   41.26R   14.79  
Barnsley        13    8  -14      -5.49    13.36    -7.18    44.73     9.05   -27.21     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.05P   61.48R   31.57  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 23 October 2019, Coventry 2 1 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Peterborough         14   27  +18       1.89    63.37     8.37    79.42     8.46    36.43    22.94    41.41    82.33    52.68P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich              13   27  +12       4.98    83.49     5.81    81.12     8.81    29.58    28.77    47.61    85.28    58.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Wycombe              14   27   +9       6.51    89.06     7.03    66.96     8.38     6.78     1.52     4.33    27.70     8.11P    0.28R    0.00  
Coventry             14   24   +2       4.08    78.45     0.89    63.78     8.29     0.10     0.59     1.89    16.31     4.57P    0.89R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       13   23   +8       2.44    68.19     3.86    71.62     8.74    17.29     5.15    12.31    49.47    20.64P    0.10R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           14   22  +11       0.93    56.73     8.21    70.30     8.59    22.17     3.84     9.85    44.59    17.77P    0.12R    0.00  
Doncaster            13   22   +8       0.78    55.67     2.90    73.14     8.63    21.44     6.87    15.82    57.25    26.39P    0.08R    0.00  
Sunderland           13   22   +6      -1.35    38.99    -2.66    77.44     8.45    26.27    15.02    30.72    75.09    44.85P    0.02R    0.00  
Rotherham            13   21   +9      -0.32    47.39     3.52    74.07     9.13    25.52     9.68    20.51    61.70    31.85P    0.09R    0.00  
Blackpool            14   21   +2       0.60    54.97     0.25    62.28     8.18     2.33     0.39     1.24    12.54     3.62P    1.30R    0.01  
Bristol_Rovers       14   21   -1       1.36    60.88    -1.73    59.23     8.18    -5.27     0.13     0.51     6.63     1.53P    3.07R    0.01  
Rochdale             14   19   -3       1.73    63.39     0.60    52.71     8.14   -15.91     0.02     0.06     1.33     0.28P   14.03R    0.13  
Burton_Albion        12   18   +3       0.31    52.71     1.20    68.48     8.92    13.07     2.70     7.10    35.57    13.77P    0.30R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           13   18   -3       0.38    53.62    -2.97    58.40     8.39    -5.89     0.11     0.42     6.02     1.46P    4.01R    0.02  
Lincoln_City         15   17   -3      -0.73    45.56     1.46    53.64     8.33    -7.71     0.01     0.07     1.89     0.34P   11.65R    0.13  
Portsmouth           12   16   +1      -3.58    22.62    -3.79    67.48     8.90    12.54     2.20     5.92    31.70    12.89P    0.41R    0.00  
Gillingham           14   15   +2      -3.89    23.32     2.55    55.94     8.52     1.16     0.05     0.23     3.72     0.89P    7.66R    0.05  
Accrington_Stanley   14   14   -8      -1.57    39.30    -2.04    49.27     8.19   -17.91     0.00     0.01     0.45     0.06P   25.94R    0.48  
MK_Dons              14   13   -9      -2.91    29.66    -3.96    45.41     8.29   -23.08     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.02P   44.10R    1.55  
Tranmere             14   13  -10      -0.40    48.50     0.23    42.53     8.09   -29.28     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   59.05R    2.93  
AFC_Wimbledon        15   12   -6      -4.71    18.67     0.18    46.52     8.01   -14.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   36.31R    1.00  
Southend             14    5  -25      -9.17     2.68   -16.15    32.69     7.82   -50.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.54R   24.65  
Bolton               12   -5  -23      -3.56    21.71   -13.77    25.04     8.28   -45.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.03R   69.03  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 22 October 2019, Bradford 1 2 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Crewe            15   30   +9       7.66    91.36     6.38    76.64     8.73    15.15    14.72    40.62    74.93    48.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Cheltenham       14   28  +14       6.54    88.45    10.67    74.98     8.91    18.70    12.12    34.71    69.07    42.06P    0.03R    0.00  
Forest_Green     15   28   +9       4.68    80.15     4.94    75.59     8.59    16.63    12.46    36.32    71.69    45.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Bradford         15   27   +7       1.76    61.54     0.14    78.46     9.01    20.42    21.66    49.72    80.81    58.90P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County   14   27   +7       7.10    90.86     5.72    73.44     8.74    11.11     7.91    26.61    61.96    34.30P    0.05R    0.01  
Exeter           15   26   +1       3.39    72.72    -2.08    71.87     8.62     6.15     5.61    20.89    54.55    29.29P    0.10R    0.01  
Swindon          15   24   +3       1.92    63.52     0.75    70.41     8.76     8.81     4.32    17.15    48.93    24.81P    0.17R    0.03  
Plymouth         15   23   +8      -2.56    32.51     0.40    75.90     9.04    23.62    15.07    39.88    73.25    50.43P    0.04R    0.01  
Northampton      15   21   +2      -0.95    43.57    -0.11    65.00     8.65     4.28     1.28     6.48    26.16    11.20P    0.90R    0.22  
Port_Vale        15   21   -1       2.42    67.88     1.62    59.11     8.44    -7.18     0.20     1.48     9.07     2.80P    3.86R    1.16  
Cambridge_Utd    15   20   +6       0.59    54.84     7.38    60.75     8.56     3.90     0.41     2.43    13.62     4.79P    2.70R    0.84  
Colchester       15   20   +3      -2.85    30.19    -0.38    65.99     8.58     8.42     1.64     7.69    30.43    13.77P    0.62R    0.14  
Crawley_Town     15   20   +0       1.87    63.91     3.83    59.59     8.60    -4.55     0.23     1.76    10.53     3.49P    3.75R    1.25  
Macclesfield     15   20   -2       3.56    75.31     3.97    52.77     8.21   -16.33     0.02     0.19     2.02     0.50P   15.50R    5.76  
Salford_City     15   20   -5       4.54    80.57     3.14    51.03     8.32   -22.95     0.01     0.13     1.36     0.29P   22.14R    9.19  
Grimsby          15   19   +0       0.21    52.45     2.31    56.48     8.39    -7.03     0.09     0.65     5.45     1.62P    6.87R    2.27  
Leyton_Orient    15   19   -3       1.93    64.73     2.59    54.18     8.75   -14.60     0.06     0.51     3.71     1.06P   13.30R    5.35  
Mansfield        15   17   +1      -7.58     8.62    -5.05    65.47     8.71     9.83     1.42     7.30    29.05    14.00P    0.76R    0.20  
Walsall          15   15  -11      -4.86    19.28   -10.23    57.25     8.76   -10.89     0.10     0.88     6.64     2.31P    7.20R    2.56  
Oldham           15   14   -8      -6.14    13.10    -7.28    57.33     8.76    -6.74     0.13     1.00     7.00     2.51P    6.80R    2.36  
Carlisle         15   14  -12      -4.08    23.50    -8.07    54.43     8.70   -15.23     0.05     0.42     3.51     1.08P   12.80R    4.97  
Scunthorpe       15   13   -4      -9.71     4.22    -7.24    61.02     9.10     4.31     0.49     3.16    15.68     7.09P    3.30R    1.12  
Morecambe        15   10  -14      -5.34    15.21    -5.99    42.02     8.16   -30.18     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   63.71R   44.66  
Stevenage        15    9  -10      -9.65     3.14    -7.39    47.42     8.46   -15.64     0.01     0.04     0.50     0.15P   35.39R   17.87  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 October 2019, Wrexham 0 1 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax            17   32  +10       7.99    91.18     8.75    74.11     8.14    13.67     7.09    49.36    15.82P    0.15R    0.00  
Bromley            17   32   +6       7.14    87.75     3.83    75.06     8.42    10.76     9.01    53.33    17.68P    0.21R    0.00  
Yeovil             17   31  +10       0.88    54.86    -0.20    83.16     8.48    28.61    38.92    85.75    54.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Barrow             16   28   +9       4.11    75.76     6.17    71.63     8.59    12.62     4.91    38.85    12.17P    0.65R    0.01  
Notts_County       17   27   +9      -3.35    28.74    -1.65    79.49     8.49    28.17    22.58    74.97    41.21P    0.05R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     17   27   +8      -0.11    49.18     2.35    73.50     8.35    17.92     6.69    48.14    17.87P    0.26R    0.00  
Woking             17   27   +6       4.57    76.86     7.40    65.90     8.75     4.61     1.51    17.54     4.76P    3.54R    0.15  
Harrogate_Town     17   26   +3       0.79    55.37     0.21    69.60     8.47     8.55     2.87    29.74     9.19P    1.08R    0.04  
Torquay            17   25   +3       3.49    71.61     6.19    61.74     8.76    -2.18     0.51     8.47     1.97P    8.96R    0.55  
Barnet             17   25   +3       0.12    51.30     0.61    68.69     8.23     8.83     2.09    25.54     7.72P    1.14R    0.02  
Boreham_Wood       17   24   +6       0.05    50.75     5.02    64.83     8.29     7.53     0.92    14.06     3.60P    3.60R    0.09  
Dag_&_Red          16   24   +1       1.99    63.84     0.85    65.98     8.44     2.36     1.13    16.37     4.45P    3.30R    0.10  
Eastleigh          17   24   -1       1.36    59.57     0.11    62.54     8.27    -2.87     0.41     8.50     1.96P    6.60R    0.27  
Dover_Athletic     16   24   -2       1.92    63.08    -2.17    64.24     8.50    -3.58     0.80    12.00     2.97P    5.09R    0.24  
Hartlepool         17   23   -1       0.07    51.15    -0.37    60.17     8.22    -5.23     0.23     5.04     1.14P   10.97R    0.63  
Maidenhead         17   21   +2       0.16    51.99     5.66    55.73     8.08    -5.54     0.03     1.59     0.30P   23.42R    1.91  
Stockport          16   21   -8       4.47    78.83     0.51    51.66     8.45   -24.05     0.02     0.74     0.11P   45.37R    7.02  
Chesterfield       17   18   -6      -5.73    17.07    -6.55    57.20     8.30    -7.09     0.08     2.50     0.62P   18.92R    1.70  
Aldershot          17   18   -6      -1.76    39.33    -0.96    50.69     7.91   -16.16     0.00     0.27     0.05P   47.71R    6.76  
Sutton_United      16   16   -4      -4.60    21.13    -2.09    54.65     8.46    -7.65     0.04     1.45     0.32P   28.75R    3.17  
Wrexham            17   16   -6      -7.86     8.78    -6.98    56.70     8.14    -4.34     0.05     2.03     0.54P   19.66R    1.61  
AFC_Fylde          16   16  -12      -6.74    12.59   -12.98    58.20     8.66   -10.71     0.11     3.67     1.00P   17.95R    1.49  
Chorley            17   13  -15      -2.45    34.74    -3.09    39.02     7.86   -35.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.17R   59.55  
Ebbsfleet_United   17   10  -15     -10.57     3.08   -10.63    47.64     8.26   -18.52     0.00     0.10     0.02P   61.43R   14.71