Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 18 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2019, Arsenal 1 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         8   24  +14       5.95    97.24     1.55    89.61     7.49    56.26    59.67    94.51    98.75    99.68    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          8   16  +18      -3.86    10.57     0.79    86.21     7.05    72.84    38.55    90.18    97.49    99.23    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   15   +2       1.66    66.38    -1.78    65.89     8.56    17.24     0.48     4.07    25.23    45.77    76.69     0.02R    0.00  
Leicester         8   14   +7       2.92    78.37     7.15    61.09     8.55    15.53     0.10     1.27    10.89    25.12    57.47     0.19R    0.01  
Chelsea           8   14   +4      -0.28    46.45    -1.25    67.18     8.39    23.16     0.66     5.19    31.28    53.29    81.76     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   14   +0       3.13    79.79     0.16    51.00     8.20    -7.73     0.01     0.06     1.01     3.23    13.80     2.78R    0.25  
Burnley           8   12   +2       2.16    72.25     3.87    46.08     7.98   -10.46     0.00     0.01     0.23     0.91     5.17     8.28R    1.12  
West_Ham          8   12   +0       1.33    63.60     0.75    48.90     8.31    -8.69     0.00     0.03     0.69     2.21     9.87     5.15R    0.61  
Tottenham         8   11   +2      -3.27    18.43    -3.02    66.10     8.36    24.26     0.47     3.99    26.81    48.85    78.98     0.03R    0.00  
Bournemouth       8   11   +0       1.48    66.32     3.20    47.99     8.33    -9.46     0.00     0.02     0.49     1.70     8.21     6.48R    1.03  
Wolverhampton     8   10   +0       0.36    54.82     2.52    49.59     8.35    -3.09     0.00     0.04     0.69     2.41    11.45     4.33R    0.58  
Man_Utd           8    9   +1      -4.20    14.78    -2.27    58.50     8.34    13.50     0.05     0.61     6.06    16.03    45.10     0.36R    0.04  
Sheff_Utd         8    9   +0       0.42    56.09     3.79    41.95     8.33   -13.80     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.31     2.17    20.98R    4.56  
Brighton          8    9   -2       0.77    59.99     2.89    40.43     7.79   -17.14     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.12     1.07    25.21R    5.32  
Aston_Villa       8    8   +1      -1.09    40.29     4.62    39.31     8.34   -18.07     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     1.21    31.69R    8.38  
Newcastle         8    8   -8      -0.74    43.47    -4.27    42.69     7.98   -18.18     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.25     2.04    17.86R    3.12  
Southampton       8    7   -7      -0.80    43.32    -1.74    39.82     8.03   -22.69     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.13     0.97    29.46R    7.21  
Everton           8    7   -7      -3.75    16.32    -6.41    44.45     8.23   -14.02     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.61     3.80    13.18R    2.31  
Norwich           8    6  -11      -0.36    48.10    -0.83    33.23     8.26   -39.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.25    62.91R   29.04  
Watford           8    3  -16      -4.90     7.49    -9.72    31.37     7.82   -39.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06    71.05R   36.42  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 18 October 2019, Cardiff 1 1 Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       11   22   +8       2.85    72.26     1.63    83.64     9.70    29.18    33.67    51.91    85.36    62.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +7       6.41    91.37     6.21    74.71     9.56    14.04     7.56    17.05    55.02    25.56P    0.18R    0.01  
Preston         11   21  +11       3.47    76.83     7.28    75.58     9.77    20.82    10.34    21.30    59.69    30.77P    0.14R    0.01  
Swansea         11   21   +7       3.69    78.49     3.69    75.38     9.52    16.45     8.91    19.28    58.56    29.15P    0.12R    0.01  
Leeds_United    11   20   +8       2.52    69.92     4.47    77.67     9.57    22.38    13.33    27.41    68.14    38.83P    0.07R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       12   20   +7       1.93    65.36     4.54    68.95     9.25    10.49     2.43     6.50    31.96    12.38P    0.61R    0.05  
Bristol_City    11   20   +5       3.92    79.89     3.49    72.79     9.65    12.07     5.66    13.24    47.17    21.16P    0.29R    0.03  
Fulham          11   19  +10       0.31    52.08     4.60    75.88    10.06    23.52    11.42    23.22    60.99    34.04P    0.15R    0.01  
QPR             11   19   -1       5.65    88.48     1.94    59.95     9.44   -12.99     0.27     0.94     7.91     2.04P    7.22R    1.19  
Charlton        11   18   +3       3.56    77.45     3.87    62.65     9.88    -1.86     0.70     2.11    14.18     4.51P    4.65R    0.67  
Cardiff         12   17   +0      -0.88    43.27    -2.09    66.95     9.73     4.94     1.67     4.81    25.53    10.08P    1.49R    0.20  
Birmingham      11   16   -3       2.61    72.05    -0.65    59.85     9.38    -9.11     0.22     0.84     7.71     2.04P    7.13R    1.19  
Derby           11   15   +0      -1.75    35.94    -2.49    68.37     9.63     7.93     2.19     6.08    30.44    12.50P    1.03R    0.09  
Blackburn       11   14   -2      -0.47    46.93    -0.80    59.03     9.55    -6.66     0.22     0.77     7.40     2.07P    8.44R    1.60  
Millwall        11   14   -4       1.35    62.82    -0.47    56.35     9.10   -11.67     0.07     0.27     3.50     0.81P   12.82R    2.45  
Hull            11   13   -2      -2.07    33.84    -1.86    58.34     9.64    -6.84     0.21     0.71     6.61     1.97P    9.62R    1.97  
Brentford       11   12   +0      -3.89    20.34    -1.27    64.03     9.58     5.99     0.82     2.46    17.30     6.26P    2.95R    0.43  
Luton           11   11   -5      -2.38    31.66    -2.06    53.02     9.98   -15.25     0.07     0.26     2.65     0.73P   24.09R    6.65  
Wigan           11   11   -7      -2.04    33.55    -4.03    53.48     9.21   -14.75     0.02     0.11     1.87     0.47P   20.91R    5.04  
Middlesbrough   11   10   -5      -5.88    10.01    -6.28    58.87     9.30    -3.17     0.20     0.66     6.36     2.18P    7.92R    1.47  
Huddersfield    11    8   -6      -4.96    13.90    -2.87    48.03     9.33   -17.17     0.00     0.02     0.59     0.12P   40.95R   14.23  
Reading         11    8   -6      -3.55    21.62    -0.54    47.78     9.15   -18.44     0.00     0.03     0.49     0.13P   42.32R   14.62  
Barnsley        11    6  -14      -5.42    10.90    -8.33    43.51     9.50   -30.51     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.05P   61.95R   31.75  
Stoke           11    5  -11      -7.98     3.06    -8.00    47.20     9.18   -19.41     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.08P   44.92R   16.33  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 18 October 2019, Lincoln_City 0 0 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              11   27  +16       7.23    94.33     8.96    87.60     9.26    39.43    56.38    74.80    95.72    80.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Wycombe              12   23   +8       5.20    85.49     6.00    64.23     8.87     3.38     0.76     2.81    21.64     6.02P    1.01R    0.01  
Peterborough         12   21  +13       0.32    52.34     6.14    75.22     9.02    29.68     8.88    24.03    68.64    36.07P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       12   21   +3       3.40    76.01     1.18    64.50     8.69     2.53     0.73     2.70    21.82     6.40P    0.95R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       11   20   +6       2.72    72.03     2.67    70.09     9.14    13.20     3.14     9.91    45.55    17.83P    0.25R    0.00  
Blackpool            13   20   +2       1.15    59.25     0.44    62.97     8.47     2.73     0.41     1.74    16.88     5.00P    1.30R    0.00  
Coventry             12   20   +1       3.11    74.36     0.45    62.35     8.76    -1.22     0.38     1.58    15.57     4.30P    1.92R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           13   19  +10      -0.83    43.91     7.01    67.46     8.82    19.17     1.69     5.91    35.55    12.94P    0.49R    0.00  
Sunderland           11   19   +2      -0.13    48.50    -4.21    77.15     9.08    22.20    11.83    29.89    74.38    43.68P    0.03R    0.00  
Rotherham            11   18   +8      -0.39    46.48     2.85    73.51     9.75    23.99     7.84    20.04    60.83    31.77P    0.16R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         14   17   -2      -0.04    50.77     1.48    54.26     8.52    -8.07     0.03     0.18     2.87     0.68P   10.79R    0.16  
Shrewsbury           12   17   -3       0.97    58.54    -2.54    59.42     8.66    -4.90     0.13     0.68     9.14     2.37P    3.54R    0.03  
Doncaster            11   16   +0      -0.22    48.30    -1.64    66.75     9.13     8.36     1.34     4.89    31.61    10.94P    0.74R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        10   15   +5       0.12    51.43     3.29    70.58     9.36    18.66     3.73    11.74    48.54    21.21P    0.29R    0.00  
Gillingham           12   14   +3      -2.43    31.18     3.07    58.13     8.92     2.88     0.13     0.63     8.04     2.10P    5.43R    0.02  
Portsmouth           10   13   +1      -3.27    22.77    -2.98    68.65     9.50    14.74     2.58     8.40    40.79    17.31P    0.58R    0.00  
Tranmere             13   13   -5      -0.57    46.89     2.38    45.06     8.56   -22.12     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.06P   45.44R    1.95  
Rochdale             12   13   -7      -0.57    46.42    -1.91    47.53     8.56   -23.47     0.00     0.01     0.50     0.07P   34.44R    1.24  
MK_Dons              12   12   -7      -1.79    36.60    -2.76    48.02     9.00   -19.94     0.01     0.03     0.83     0.17P   32.93R    1.29  
Accrington_Stanley   12   11   -6      -3.03    26.94    -2.17    47.92     8.60   -17.85     0.00     0.02     0.60     0.11P   31.65R    0.98  
AFC_Wimbledon        13    9   -6      -5.49    12.59    -0.50    44.84     8.37   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   44.81R    1.99  
Southend             13    5  -19      -9.28     2.29   -12.91    35.72     8.14   -40.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   85.11R   14.94  
Bolton               10   -8  -23      -4.23    13.63   -14.31    23.72     8.79   -46.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.09R   77.38  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2019, Carlisle 2 4 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Crewe            13   26   +7       7.02    91.03     5.25    74.94     9.18    12.50    11.14    32.88    67.15    40.11P    0.05R    0.01  
Exeter           13   26   +7       4.93    83.28     2.20    77.70     9.03    16.65    17.59    44.84    77.39    53.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Bradford         13   24   +7       2.17    65.49     1.10    80.10     9.43    23.27    27.14    56.20    84.04    64.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green     13   24   +7       4.20    79.42     4.00    74.53     9.11    14.96    10.34    31.71    65.87    40.28P    0.04R    0.00  
Newport_County   12   23   +6       6.37    90.33     5.49    72.32     9.18    10.35     6.76    23.85    56.12    30.78P    0.13R    0.03  
Cheltenham       12   22  +10       4.44    81.04     8.42    70.28     9.30    12.56     5.09    18.66    48.27    24.84P    0.18R    0.05  
Swindon          13   21   +4       1.54    61.98     1.53    70.68     9.21    10.66     5.07    19.04    49.83    26.50P    0.21R    0.06  
Colchester       13   19   +4      -1.06    42.05     0.73    68.89     9.07    11.16     3.45    14.56    42.94    22.34P    0.31R    0.08  
Crawley_Town     13   19   +1       2.68    70.31     3.36    60.50     9.09    -4.89     0.44     2.74    13.46     4.76P    3.33R    1.00  
Grimsby          13   18   +4       1.23    60.27     5.31    60.70     8.95     0.65     0.43     2.73    14.03     4.97P    2.70R    0.78  
Plymouth         13   17   +2      -3.63    24.98    -2.25    71.21     9.52    15.50     6.56    22.53    53.71    32.09P    0.26R    0.07  
Macclesfield     13   17   +0       2.26    68.55     4.37    52.01     8.71   -15.17     0.04     0.27     2.29     0.58P   17.01R    6.52  
Port_Vale        13   17   -2       0.98    58.61     0.39    56.71     8.84    -9.89     0.12     0.94     6.17     1.94P    7.01R    2.30  
Salford_City     13   17   -4       3.15    74.07     2.32    49.08     8.84   -24.86     0.03     0.14     1.21     0.30P   28.88R   12.69  
Mansfield        13   16   +2      -5.65    13.61    -3.69    68.94     9.11    13.45     3.69    15.04    43.73    23.79P    0.31R    0.06  
Cambridge_Utd    13   16   +2       0.20    52.75     4.71    57.59     8.84    -2.73     0.16     1.20     7.74     2.49P    5.61R    1.84  
Leyton_Orient    13   16   -3       1.20    60.34     1.73    52.16     9.11   -17.21     0.04     0.35     2.74     0.81P   18.14R    7.66  
Northampton      13   15   -2      -3.06    27.81    -2.32    60.62     9.16    -1.36     0.43     2.92    14.31     5.59P    3.18R    0.99  
Walsall          13   15   -8      -2.98    28.64    -8.42    61.41     9.32    -5.82     0.52     3.30    15.65     6.58P    3.08R    0.98  
Carlisle         13   14   -8      -2.62    31.17    -6.07    58.54     9.20    -9.28     0.24     1.51     9.47     3.22P    5.77R    2.03  
Oldham           13   11   -9      -5.75    12.80    -7.26    57.68     9.19    -6.88     0.16     1.31     8.21     3.03P    6.73R    2.31  
Scunthorpe       13   10   -5      -9.64     3.35    -7.72    59.93     9.68     2.04     0.55     3.18    14.37     6.65P    4.62R    1.60  
Stevenage        13    8   -9      -8.44     4.00    -7.10    49.05     8.90   -14.86     0.01     0.11     1.22     0.38P   26.95R   12.46  
Morecambe        13    7  -13      -6.40     8.62    -6.06    40.85     8.59   -30.80     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   65.48R   46.48  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 October 2019, Wrexham 0 1 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax            17   32  +10       7.90    90.89     8.63    74.23     8.18    13.85     7.18    49.95    16.05P    0.18R    0.00  
Bromley            17   32   +6       7.11    87.31     3.78    75.01     8.53    10.66     9.16    52.82    18.00P    0.19R    0.00  
Yeovil             17   31  +10       1.03    56.25     0.01    83.04     8.54    28.34    38.44    84.96    53.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Barrow             16   28   +9       4.09    75.84     6.11    71.83     8.66    12.93     5.25    39.41    12.63P    0.61R    0.01  
Notts_County       17   27   +9      -3.27    29.24    -1.53    79.27     8.49    27.82    21.97    73.92    40.34P    0.04R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     17   27   +8      -0.17    48.56     2.25    73.66     8.42    18.15     7.25    48.85    18.53P    0.31R    0.00  
Woking             17   27   +6       4.49    76.64     7.31    65.97     8.67     4.75     1.42    17.63     4.73P    3.34R    0.10  
Harrogate_Town     17   26   +3       0.70    54.68     0.07    69.70     8.52     8.75     3.00    30.03     9.31P    1.08R    0.01  
Torquay            17   25   +3       3.31    70.71     5.93    62.14     8.82    -1.59     0.65     9.35     2.29P    8.53R    0.53  
Barnet             17   25   +3       0.17    51.68     0.69    68.63     8.19     8.72     1.91    24.88     7.60P    1.19R    0.04  
Boreham_Wood       17   24   +6       0.05    50.59     5.04    64.92     8.29     7.67     0.84    14.00     3.57P    3.49R    0.11  
Dag_&_Red          16   24   +1       2.07    64.39     0.96    65.91     8.48     2.20     1.20    16.32     4.28P    3.33R    0.12  
Eastleigh          17   24   -1       1.43    59.89     0.25    62.35     8.24    -3.14     0.36     7.97     1.90P    6.98R    0.29  
Dover_Athletic     16   24   -2       1.94    63.45    -2.13    64.21     8.61    -3.73     0.83    12.39     3.12P    5.26R    0.21  
Hartlepool         17   23   -1       0.27    52.18    -0.06    59.95     8.22    -5.52     0.16     4.83     1.06P   11.29R    0.67  
Maidenhead         17   21   +2      -0.01    50.89     5.46    55.88     8.14    -5.36     0.02     1.81     0.34P   23.12R    1.84  
Stockport          16   21   -8       4.42    78.74     0.42    51.82     8.56   -23.79     0.02     0.85     0.16P   44.26R    6.89  
Chesterfield       17   18   -6      -5.77    17.25    -6.67    57.26     8.27    -7.00     0.09     2.53     0.63P   18.68R    1.64  
Aldershot          17   18   -6      -1.67    39.58    -0.87    50.58     7.79   -16.26     0.00     0.26     0.05P   47.99R    6.65  
Sutton_United      16   16   -4      -4.59    21.22    -2.06    54.44     8.44    -7.95     0.03     1.39     0.28P   29.37R    3.20  
Wrexham            17   16   -6      -7.81     9.23    -6.91    56.74     8.20    -4.30     0.06     2.12     0.57P   19.59R    1.71  
AFC_Fylde          16   16  -12      -6.68    12.52   -12.88    58.12     8.73   -10.82     0.14     3.65     0.96P   18.16R    1.56  
Chorley            17   13  -15      -2.53    34.04    -3.22    39.05     7.81   -35.65     0.00     0.01     0.00P   91.18R   59.26  
Ebbsfleet_United   17   10  -15     -10.53     3.21   -10.58    47.50     8.33   -18.73     0.00     0.08     0.01P   61.79R   15.14