Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 17 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2019, Arsenal 1 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         8   24  +14       5.99    97.24     1.61    89.56     7.48    56.23    60.12    94.41    98.67    99.65    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          8   16  +18      -3.80    11.34     0.93    85.97     7.01    72.23    38.04    89.99    97.38    99.21    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   15   +2       1.71    66.59    -1.68    65.69     8.63    16.89     0.50     4.03    24.56    45.19    75.78     0.05R    0.00  
Leicester         8   14   +7       2.96    78.58     7.18    60.95     8.54    15.33     0.10     1.30    10.60    24.45    56.80     0.17R    0.01  
Chelsea           8   14   +4      -0.34    46.01    -1.32    67.45     8.37    23.63     0.72     5.62    32.78    54.66    82.75     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   14   +0       3.10    79.80     0.11    51.19     8.18    -7.41     0.01     0.06     1.04     3.40    13.99     2.77R    0.24  
Burnley           8   12   +2       2.10    71.49     3.76    46.14     8.10   -10.28     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.96     5.35     8.81R    1.24  
West_Ham          8   12   +0       1.21    62.46     0.56    49.05     8.23    -8.43     0.00     0.01     0.63     2.15     9.88     4.59R    0.54  
Tottenham         8   11   +2      -3.28    18.23    -3.07    66.06     8.33    24.17     0.48     3.95    26.32    48.38    79.01     0.03R    0.00  
Bournemouth       8   11   +0       1.49    66.10     3.17    47.85     8.50    -9.69     0.00     0.02     0.54     1.79     8.44     7.04R    0.94  
Wolverhampton     8   10   +0       0.39    55.09     2.56    49.54     8.34    -3.11     0.00     0.05     0.73     2.47    11.14     4.23R    0.57  
Man_Utd           8    9   +1      -4.19    14.83    -2.24    58.52     8.24    13.57     0.04     0.54     6.11    15.94    45.32     0.31R    0.04  
Sheff_Utd         8    9   +0       0.34    55.23     3.65    42.14     8.31   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.41     2.29    20.16R    4.07  
Brighton          8    9   -2       0.76    59.73     2.88    40.43     7.88   -17.15     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14     1.10    25.59R    5.39  
Aston_Villa       8    8   +1      -1.04    41.24     4.71    39.19     8.42   -18.36     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.17     1.21    32.35R    8.86  
Newcastle         8    8   -8      -0.77    43.07    -4.33    42.81     7.98   -17.98     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.23     2.14    17.47R    2.93  
Southampton       8    7   -7      -0.76    43.54    -1.70    39.79     8.04   -22.74     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.95    29.64R    7.49  
Everton           8    7   -7      -3.71    16.64    -6.37    44.33     8.25   -14.16     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.66     3.63    13.51R    2.36  
Norwich           8    6  -11      -0.34    48.27    -0.77    33.45     8.27   -39.39     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.25    61.45R   27.79  
Watford           8    3  -16      -4.85     7.88    -9.65    31.23     7.82   -39.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    71.82R   37.55  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bristol_City 1 0 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       11   22   +8       2.83    72.18     1.64    83.77     9.70    29.40    33.97    52.05    85.29    61.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +7       6.47    91.65     6.30    74.45     9.49    13.66     7.02    16.39    53.83    24.64P    0.19R    0.01  
Preston         11   21  +11       3.44    76.95     7.25    75.66     9.83    20.95    10.38    21.62    59.75    30.97P    0.16R    0.01  
Swansea         11   21   +7       3.73    78.58     3.74    75.30     9.63    16.31     8.96    19.23    57.40    28.71P    0.14R    0.01  
Leeds_United    11   20   +8       2.49    70.06     4.45    77.43     9.53    22.06    12.73    26.20    66.78    37.63P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_City    11   20   +5       3.93    80.03     3.52    72.79     9.64    12.04     5.66    13.24    47.33    21.21P    0.32R    0.04  
Fulham          11   19  +10       0.33    52.32     4.61    75.68    10.17    23.24    11.14    22.75    60.10    33.38P    0.18R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       11   19   +7       2.18    67.83     4.35    69.10     9.52    10.11     2.83     7.16    32.92    13.09P    0.69R    0.06  
QPR             11   19   -1       5.58    88.17     1.84    60.10     9.44   -12.72     0.28     0.92     8.30     2.02P    7.06R    1.13  
Charlton        11   18   +3       3.54    77.51     3.85    62.59     9.81    -1.97     0.62     1.98    13.82     4.35P    4.40R    0.59  
Cardiff         11   16   +0      -0.38    47.32    -1.90    67.70     9.96     5.56     2.22     5.93    28.50    11.71P    1.51R    0.19  
Birmingham      11   16   -3       2.60    72.08    -0.62    59.86     9.37    -9.12     0.26     0.85     7.62     2.15P    7.09R    1.17  
Derby           11   15   +0      -1.81    35.24    -2.60    68.54     9.61     8.22     2.24     6.23    30.94    12.82P    0.94R    0.12  
Blackburn       11   14   -2      -0.43    47.26    -0.73    59.02     9.54    -6.70     0.19     0.71     7.07     1.98P    8.65R    1.65  
Millwall        11   14   -4       1.29    62.45    -0.59    56.49     9.09   -11.47     0.06     0.24     3.61     0.89P   12.60R    2.42  
Hull            11   13   -2      -2.09    33.63    -1.90    58.29     9.71    -6.91     0.25     0.77     6.56     2.01P   10.03R    2.05  
Brentford       11   12   +0      -3.91    20.36    -1.30    64.16     9.64     6.13     0.91     2.66    17.28     6.56P    2.90R    0.45  
Luton           11   11   -5      -2.37    31.65    -2.03    53.14     9.90   -15.04     0.05     0.23     2.67     0.74P   23.69R    6.35  
Wigan           11   11   -7      -1.89    34.77    -3.82    53.14     9.17   -15.30     0.03     0.11     1.74     0.42P   21.81R    5.24  
Middlesbrough   11   10   -5      -5.96     9.89    -6.36    59.14     9.36    -2.80     0.20     0.67     6.86     2.40P    7.41R    1.40  
Huddersfield    11    8   -6      -5.04    13.75    -2.94    48.25     9.45   -16.94     0.01     0.03     0.66     0.16P   40.43R   13.62  
Reading         11    8   -6      -3.56    21.67    -0.54    47.82     9.19   -18.37     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.07P   42.18R   14.68  
Barnsley        11    6  -14      -5.41    11.14    -8.30    43.29     9.53   -30.88     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P   62.38R   32.33  
Stoke           11    5  -11      -7.94     3.03    -7.92    47.13     9.22   -19.47     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.09P   45.18R   16.48  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 13 October 2019, Coventry 0 1 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              11   27  +16       7.19    94.47     8.90    87.76     9.28    39.72    56.43    75.14    95.83    81.44P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              12   23   +8       5.13    85.11     5.91    64.37     8.85     3.57     0.74     2.78    22.11     6.06P    1.07R    0.00  
Peterborough         12   21  +13       0.24    51.59     6.01    75.46     8.95    30.14     9.20    24.56    70.02    37.11P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       12   21   +3       3.38    75.68     1.17    64.44     8.75     2.34     0.74     2.76    21.55     6.45P    0.95R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       11   20   +6       2.67    71.37     2.58    70.31     9.19    13.57     3.17    10.23    46.05    18.16P    0.21R    0.00  
Blackpool            13   20   +2       1.22    59.75     0.54    62.86     8.48     2.63     0.38     1.64    16.68     4.65P    1.40R    0.01  
Coventry             12   20   +1       3.04    73.80     0.33    62.41     8.73    -1.15     0.42     1.65    15.25     4.21P    1.88R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           13   19  +10      -0.82    43.70     7.04    67.42     8.82    19.06     1.65     5.78    34.96    12.40P    0.45R    0.00  
Sunderland           11   19   +2      -0.12    48.49    -4.22    77.17     9.06    22.30    11.60    29.75    74.54    43.42P    0.02R    0.00  
Rotherham            11   18   +8      -0.35    46.97     2.88    73.47     9.74    23.95     7.76    19.87    60.61    31.54P    0.17R    0.00  
Doncaster            11   16   +0      -0.22    48.44    -1.61    66.80     9.17     8.42     1.39     5.06    31.61    11.33P    0.86R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         13   16   -2       0.30    53.47     1.51    54.99     8.80    -7.66     0.05     0.23     3.81     0.85P   10.58R    0.14  
Shrewsbury           11   16   -3       1.28    61.40    -2.60    59.51     8.81    -5.43     0.18     0.79     9.44     2.47P    3.85R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        10   15   +5       0.15    51.44     3.32    70.39     9.29    18.39     3.46    11.02    47.47    20.43P    0.27R    0.00  
Gillingham           12   14   +3      -2.42    31.49     3.13    58.08     9.01     2.71     0.14     0.68     8.27     2.31P    5.83R    0.06  
Portsmouth           10   13   +1      -3.25    22.98    -2.96    68.41     9.49    14.44     2.67     7.99    39.27    16.68P    0.66R    0.00  
Rochdale             12   13   -7      -0.67    45.83    -2.08    47.93     8.51   -22.75     0.00     0.02     0.57     0.10P   33.31R    1.08  
Tranmere             12   12   -5       0.05    52.05     2.83    45.76     8.89   -21.78     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.07P   43.34R    1.95  
MK_Dons              12   12   -7      -1.89    35.83    -2.92    48.06     8.90   -19.87     0.01     0.03     0.82     0.17P   33.27R    1.26  
Accrington_Stanley   12   11   -6      -2.88    28.28    -1.90    47.62     8.54   -18.38     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.08P   33.93R    1.04  
AFC_Wimbledon        13    9   -6      -5.47    12.69    -0.42    44.86     8.37   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   45.27R    2.03  
Southend             12    4  -19      -9.05     1.84   -13.11    35.81     8.39   -41.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   84.38R   15.17  
Bolton               10   -8  -23      -4.24    13.70   -14.33    23.65     8.73   -46.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.24R   77.22  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2019, Carlisle 2 4 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Crewe            13   26   +7       7.06    91.20     5.32    74.76     9.26    12.23    10.87    32.70    66.13    39.74P    0.04R    0.01  
Exeter           13   26   +7       4.90    82.99     2.22    77.63     9.08    16.54    17.63    44.61    77.14    53.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Bradford         13   24   +7       2.10    65.09     1.03    80.20     9.37    23.35    27.53    57.09    84.34    65.14P    0.02R    0.01  
Forest_Green     13   24   +7       4.22    79.58     4.04    74.51     9.00    14.97    10.11    31.86    66.24    40.54P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County   12   23   +6       6.30    90.31     5.39    72.26     9.11    10.31     6.60    23.13    56.33    30.52P    0.12R    0.02  
Cheltenham       12   22  +10       4.37    80.55     8.33    70.57     9.35    13.01     5.33    19.50    49.80    26.05P    0.22R    0.05  
Swindon          13   21   +4       1.55    61.87     1.57    70.66     9.23    10.70     5.16    19.29    49.79    26.81P    0.21R    0.03  
Colchester       13   19   +4      -1.12    41.51     0.63    69.06     9.09    11.35     3.80    15.07    43.56    22.70P    0.32R    0.10  
Crawley_Town     13   19   +1       2.67    70.36     3.39    60.44     8.99    -5.00     0.45     2.62    12.86     4.50P    3.11R    0.96  
Grimsby          13   18   +4       1.28    60.77     5.38    60.69     8.98     0.60     0.45     2.78    14.08     5.08P    2.68R    0.77  
Plymouth         13   17   +2      -3.44    25.89    -1.98    70.90     9.45    15.03     6.04    21.29    52.18    30.56P    0.27R    0.07  
Macclesfield     13   17   +0       2.27    68.48     4.38    51.93     8.55   -15.22     0.03     0.21     2.00     0.49P   16.92R    6.53  
Port_Vale        13   17   -2       1.05    59.03     0.48    56.53     8.90   -10.13     0.14     0.93     6.20     1.90P    7.46R    2.44  
Salford_City     13   17   -4       3.13    73.85     2.30    49.14     8.84   -24.81     0.01     0.12     1.24     0.31P   29.05R   13.12  
Mansfield        13   16   +2      -5.60    13.80    -3.64    68.89     9.10    13.34     3.65    14.86    43.47    23.93P    0.33R    0.08  
Cambridge_Utd    13   16   +2       0.17    52.53     4.68    57.60     8.88    -2.77     0.17     1.19     7.82     2.48P    5.66R    1.89  
Leyton_Orient    13   16   -3       1.05    59.33     1.50    52.48     9.16   -16.71     0.06     0.40     3.09     0.90P   17.50R    7.27  
Northampton      13   15   -2      -3.10    27.61    -2.40    60.79     9.11    -1.10     0.49     3.01    14.47     5.59P    3.05R    0.88  
Walsall          13   15   -8      -2.98    28.89    -8.41    61.38     9.28    -5.87     0.59     3.32    15.70     6.43P    3.10R    0.92  
Carlisle         13   14   -8      -2.65    30.94    -6.14    58.64     9.16    -9.14     0.20     1.64     9.74     3.34P    5.63R    1.86  
Oldham           13   11   -9      -5.65    13.28    -7.18    57.49     9.24    -7.17     0.18     1.25     8.15     2.97P    7.04R    2.53  
Scunthorpe       13   10   -5      -9.64     3.14    -7.73    59.87     9.66     1.91     0.48     3.02    14.35     6.61P    4.71R    1.62  
Stevenage        13    8   -9      -8.42     4.08    -7.09    49.18     8.93   -14.73     0.01     0.12     1.25     0.39P   26.78R   12.25  
Morecambe        13    7  -13      -6.37     8.68    -6.04    40.89     8.52   -30.69     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   65.73R   46.56  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 October 2019, Wrexham 0 1 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax            17   32  +10       7.92    91.01     8.65    74.21     8.19    13.81     7.08    49.87    15.98P    0.17R    0.00  
Bromley            17   32   +6       7.13    87.59     3.81    75.08     8.46    10.75     9.10    53.05    17.89P    0.18R    0.00  
Yeovil             17   31  +10       0.92    55.22    -0.17    83.08     8.52    28.46    38.52    85.30    53.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Barrow             16   28   +9       4.08    75.72     6.09    71.66     8.61    12.68     5.04    38.73    12.43P    0.56R    0.01  
Notts_County       17   27   +9      -3.35    28.84    -1.64    79.43     8.48    28.10    22.38    74.67    40.87P    0.05R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     17   27   +8      -0.09    49.31     2.39    73.49     8.42    17.95     6.86    48.03    18.16P    0.30R    0.00  
Woking             17   27   +6       4.56    76.91     7.42    65.87     8.78     4.58     1.57    17.68     4.82P    3.59R    0.11  
Harrogate_Town     17   26   +3       0.72    54.83     0.08    69.72     8.45     8.74     3.03    29.90     9.16P    1.17R    0.04  
Torquay            17   25   +3       3.23    70.00     5.80    62.21     8.88    -1.42     0.68     9.57     2.28P    8.46R    0.51  
Barnet             17   25   +3       0.29    52.40     0.82    68.53     8.27     8.60     2.09    25.00     7.47P    1.31R    0.03  
Boreham_Wood       17   24   +6       0.04    50.48     5.03    64.74     8.29     7.44     0.77    13.63     3.59P    3.67R    0.12  
Dag_&_Red          16   24   +1       2.07    64.41     0.94    65.98     8.44     2.29     1.13    16.49     4.33P    3.19R    0.12  
Eastleigh          17   24   -1       1.38    59.58     0.13    62.48     8.28    -2.94     0.44     8.30     1.93P    6.77R    0.31  
Dover_Athletic     16   24   -2       1.92    63.32    -2.15    64.18     8.61    -3.77     0.75    12.33     3.02P    5.31R    0.20  
Hartlepool         17   23   -1       0.11    51.24    -0.27    60.10     8.27    -5.30     0.20     5.05     1.14P   11.27R    0.63  
Maidenhead         17   21   +2       0.08    51.59     5.57    55.86     8.09    -5.41     0.05     1.75     0.35P   22.73R    1.76  
Stockport          16   21   -8       4.53    79.55     0.59    51.64     8.51   -24.11     0.01     0.76     0.11P   45.37R    6.95  
Chesterfield       17   18   -6      -5.81    17.07    -6.71    57.32     8.29    -6.94     0.06     2.55     0.70P   18.72R    1.62  
Aldershot          17   18   -6      -1.65    39.73    -0.86    50.61     7.91   -16.24     0.00     0.28     0.07P   47.82R    6.77  
Sutton_United      16   16   -4      -4.56    21.32    -2.02    54.53     8.42    -7.74     0.04     1.38     0.34P   29.10R    3.18  
Wrexham            17   16   -6      -7.88     8.89    -6.99    56.73     8.13    -4.32     0.04     1.90     0.49P   19.58R    1.51  
AFC_Fylde          16   16  -12      -6.68    12.54   -12.87    58.15     8.76   -10.75     0.15     3.67     0.96P   18.12R    1.57  
Chorley            17   13  -15      -2.40    35.07    -3.04    38.94     7.82   -35.92     0.00     0.01     0.00P   91.41R   59.74  
Ebbsfleet_United   17   10  -15     -10.56     3.13   -10.60    47.63     8.35   -18.54     0.00     0.12     0.03P   61.13R   14.81