Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 16 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2019, Arsenal 1 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         8   24  +14       6.01    97.32     1.63    89.47     7.54    56.03    59.50    94.34    98.71    99.63    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          8   16  +18      -3.84    10.87     0.80    86.19     6.97    72.70    38.70    90.54    97.58    99.27    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   15   +2       1.71    66.96    -1.68    65.72     8.60    16.93     0.51     4.05    24.91    45.19    76.07     0.04R    0.00  
Leicester         8   14   +7       2.95    78.51     7.16    60.90     8.52    15.26     0.10     1.30    10.67    24.49    56.77     0.19R    0.02  
Chelsea           8   14   +4      -0.36    45.84    -1.39    67.25     8.39    23.33     0.70     5.25    31.99    53.82    82.07     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   14   +0       3.14    80.01     0.18    51.07     8.18    -7.60     0.01     0.06     1.02     3.42    13.95     2.78R    0.26  
Burnley           8   12   +2       2.06    71.30     3.70    46.29     8.04   -10.14     0.00     0.01     0.26     0.96     5.41     8.36R    1.16  
West_Ham          8   12   +0       1.27    63.17     0.68    49.02     8.31    -8.52     0.00     0.03     0.64     2.18    10.02     5.01R    0.52  
Tottenham         8   11   +2      -3.26    18.45    -3.05    66.07     8.35    24.19     0.44     3.80    26.60    48.95    78.92     0.03R    0.00  
Bournemouth       8   11   +0       1.51    66.64     3.22    47.78     8.42    -9.81     0.00     0.01     0.48     1.66     8.05     7.11R    1.16  
Wolverhampton     8   10   +0       0.36    54.76     2.53    49.70     8.37    -2.93     0.01     0.05     0.74     2.63    11.73     4.30R    0.53  
Man_Utd           8    9   +1      -4.17    14.77    -2.24    58.47     8.30    13.43     0.04     0.53     5.97    16.05    45.21     0.32R    0.03  
Sheff_Utd         8    9   +0       0.37    55.49     3.72    42.04     8.32   -13.64     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.36     2.23    20.43R    4.34  
Brighton          8    9   -2       0.81    60.17     3.01    40.23     7.86   -17.46     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.13     1.14    26.44R    5.67  
Aston_Villa       8    8   +1      -1.07    40.61     4.65    39.31     8.35   -18.09     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.15     1.24    31.90R    8.53  
Newcastle         8    8   -8      -0.77    42.98    -4.29    42.71     8.02   -18.15     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.31     2.10    17.88R    3.10  
Southampton       8    7   -7      -0.79    43.13    -1.75    39.85     8.09   -22.62     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     1.07    29.39R    7.31  
Everton           8    7   -7      -3.77    16.34    -6.45    44.60     8.18   -13.76     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.64     3.81    12.72R    2.19  
Norwich           8    6  -11      -0.35    47.95    -0.74    33.33     8.30   -39.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.25    62.05R   28.46  
Watford           8    3  -16      -4.87     7.46    -9.67    31.39     7.83   -39.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    71.05R   36.73  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bristol_City 1 0 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       11   22   +8       2.88    72.59     1.68    83.51     9.71    29.02    32.81    51.23    84.74    61.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +7       6.41    91.35     6.21    74.91     9.58    14.32     7.79    17.52    55.66    26.08P    0.16R    0.01  
Preston         11   21  +11       3.45    76.68     7.28    75.67     9.79    20.97    10.43    21.61    59.80    30.90P    0.13R    0.01  
Swansea         11   21   +7       3.68    78.01     3.67    75.41     9.58    16.49     8.87    19.31    58.30    29.23P    0.12R    0.02  
Leeds_United    11   20   +8       2.49    69.65     4.46    77.65     9.57    22.39    13.45    27.17    67.63    38.53P    0.06R    0.00  
Bristol_City    11   20   +5       4.05    80.51     3.69    72.53     9.61    11.63     5.39    12.41    46.14    20.06P    0.30R    0.03  
Fulham          11   19  +10       0.35    52.46     4.66    75.70    10.17    23.26    10.98    22.74    59.97    33.38P    0.21R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       11   19   +7       2.17    67.99     4.36    69.03     9.52     9.99     2.73     6.89    32.26    12.92P    0.70R    0.07  
QPR             11   19   -1       5.56    88.21     1.83    60.00     9.45   -12.85     0.31     0.98     8.18     2.03P    6.95R    1.23  
Charlton        11   18   +3       3.57    77.48     3.90    62.66     9.79    -1.84     0.63     1.89    13.69     4.10P    4.36R    0.68  
Cardiff         11   16   +0      -0.33    47.75    -1.81    67.46     9.98     5.19     2.27     5.78    27.56    11.29P    1.51R    0.20  
Birmingham      11   16   -3       2.57    71.76    -0.66    60.00     9.40    -8.95     0.28     0.91     7.73     2.17P    7.00R    1.05  
Derby           11   15   +0      -1.82    35.37    -2.60    68.56     9.62     8.22     2.33     6.25    30.80    12.81P    1.01R    0.08  
Blackburn       11   14   -2      -0.46    46.90    -0.80    59.06     9.44    -6.63     0.20     0.67     7.11     1.92P    8.16R    1.45  
Millwall        11   14   -4       1.35    62.88    -0.53    56.25     9.15   -11.81     0.07     0.24     3.47     0.86P   13.33R    2.74  
Hull            11   13   -2      -2.12    33.23    -1.92    58.27     9.59    -6.95     0.24     0.69     6.41     1.85P    9.75R    1.89  
Brentford       11   12   +0      -4.02    19.82    -1.42    64.37     9.58     6.48     0.90     2.62    18.02     6.82P    2.74R    0.41  
Luton           11   11   -5      -2.33    32.17    -1.95    52.76     9.99   -15.63     0.06     0.25     2.54     0.74P   24.74R    7.00  
Wigan           11   11   -7      -1.97    34.10    -3.93    53.39     9.26   -14.96     0.02     0.10     1.92     0.42P   21.51R    4.97  
Middlesbrough   11   10   -5      -6.04     9.10    -6.47    59.15     9.21    -2.77     0.21     0.67     6.48     2.24P    7.22R    1.24  
Huddersfield    11    8   -6      -4.97    13.79    -2.87    48.06     9.41   -17.21     0.01     0.03     0.59     0.15P   40.96R   14.29  
Reading         11    8   -6      -3.54    21.87    -0.49    47.67     9.14   -18.58     0.01     0.03     0.46     0.10P   43.00R   15.05  
Barnsley        11    6  -14      -5.39    11.21    -8.30    43.45     9.53   -30.58     0.00     0.01     0.18     0.04P   61.93R   31.43  
Stoke           11    5  -11      -7.95     3.10    -7.97    47.33     9.27   -19.21     0.01     0.01     0.36     0.08P   44.12R   16.15  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 13 October 2019, Coventry 0 1 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              11   27  +16       7.19    94.45     8.88    87.89     9.26    39.95    57.42    75.64    95.90    81.70P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              12   23   +8       5.16    85.46     5.96    64.17     8.79     3.22     0.78     2.68    21.09     5.84P    1.12R    0.01  
Peterborough         12   21  +13       0.30    52.10     6.12    75.25     8.99    29.68     8.52    23.76    68.93    35.99P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       12   21   +3       3.52    76.78     1.35    64.26     8.74     2.08     0.67     2.56    20.82     5.99P    1.03R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town       11   20   +6       2.67    71.47     2.56    70.28     9.24    13.53     3.06    10.24    46.00    18.50P    0.25R    0.00  
Blackpool            13   20   +2       1.19    59.42     0.53    62.81     8.45     2.51     0.38     1.55    16.19     4.54P    1.32R    0.01  
Coventry             12   20   +1       3.00    73.53     0.27    62.51     8.82    -0.92     0.44     1.70    15.98     4.44P    1.92R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           13   19  +10      -0.84    43.57     6.97    67.46     8.81    19.13     1.57     5.72    34.99    12.50P    0.46R    0.00  
Sunderland           11   19   +2      -0.18    48.05    -4.30    77.31     9.00    22.49    11.50    30.20    74.75    43.90P    0.02R    0.00  
Rotherham            11   18   +8      -0.38    46.34     2.83    73.49     9.77    24.01     7.71    19.54    60.79    31.24P    0.20R    0.01  
Doncaster            11   16   +0      -0.26    48.38    -1.68    66.87     9.12     8.48     1.35     4.84    31.62    11.23P    0.80R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         13   16   -2       0.34    53.66     1.58    54.92     8.81    -7.81     0.05     0.21     3.79     0.84P   10.67R    0.13  
Shrewsbury           11   16   -3       1.19    60.89    -2.72    59.74     8.91    -5.04     0.20     0.83    10.25     2.62P    3.69R    0.04  
Burton_Albion        10   15   +5       0.09    51.12     3.25    70.70     9.43    18.91     3.64    11.69    48.88    21.34P    0.31R    0.00  
Gillingham           12   14   +3      -2.35    31.88     3.25    57.80     9.02     2.32     0.14     0.66     7.76     2.05P    6.07R    0.05  
Portsmouth           10   13   +1      -3.25    22.79    -2.96    68.58     9.44    14.71     2.57     8.08    39.64    16.74P    0.64R    0.00  
Rochdale             12   13   -7      -0.57    46.56    -1.90    47.59     8.60   -23.32     0.00     0.02     0.51     0.08P   34.56R    1.20  
Tranmere             12   12   -5      -0.07    51.20     2.60    46.09     8.88   -21.23     0.00     0.03     0.44     0.09P   41.98R    1.70  
MK_Dons              12   12   -7      -1.82    36.37    -2.81    48.12     8.95   -19.80     0.01     0.04     0.87     0.20P   32.99R    1.01  
Accrington_Stanley   12   11   -6      -2.97    27.50    -2.05    47.77     8.59   -18.09     0.00     0.02     0.58     0.10P   33.07R    1.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        13    9   -6      -5.47    12.77    -0.41    44.73     8.40   -16.67     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P   46.22R    2.06  
Southend             12    4  -19      -9.08     1.89   -13.15    35.80     8.45   -41.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    84.29R   15.30  
Bolton               10   -8  -23      -4.16    14.00   -14.17    23.55     8.68   -46.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.33R   77.45  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2019, Carlisle 2 4 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Crewe            13   26   +7       7.06    91.17     5.35    74.75     9.32    12.21    10.89    32.44    65.72    39.45P    0.04R    0.01  
Exeter           13   26   +7       4.91    83.06     2.21    77.66     9.06    16.59    17.25    44.38    77.32    52.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Bradford         13   24   +7       2.11    65.29     1.01    80.21     9.41    23.42    27.40    56.53    84.35    65.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     13   24   +7       4.20    79.48     4.02    74.62     9.09    15.06    10.36    32.20    66.23    40.69P    0.05R    0.01  
Newport_County   12   23   +6       6.33    90.30     5.41    72.36     9.27    10.44     6.92    23.68    56.58    30.95P    0.14R    0.03  
Cheltenham       12   22  +10       4.33    80.67     8.25    70.64     9.31    13.07     5.20    19.44    50.29    26.02P    0.20R    0.04  
Swindon          13   21   +4       1.56    62.04     1.57    70.72     9.23    10.76     4.91    19.11    50.21    26.84P    0.23R    0.03  
Colchester       13   19   +4      -1.13    41.66     0.61    69.10     9.02    11.40     3.60    14.70    43.23    22.23P    0.29R    0.05  
Crawley_Town     13   19   +1       2.73    70.73     3.47    60.33     8.98    -5.20     0.41     2.44    12.41     4.24P    3.41R    1.10  
Grimsby          13   18   +4       1.32    60.96     5.45    60.64     8.97     0.55     0.40     2.73    14.03     4.97P    2.78R    0.81  
Plymouth         13   17   +2      -3.60    25.10    -2.20    71.34     9.62    15.70     6.82    22.63    53.80    32.27P    0.27R    0.06  
Macclesfield     13   17   +0       2.23    68.42     4.34    51.95     8.64   -15.26     0.02     0.22     2.02     0.49P   17.05R    6.47  
Port_Vale        13   17   -2       1.01    58.92     0.42    56.53     8.87   -10.10     0.13     0.86     6.08     1.72P    7.45R    2.39  
Salford_City     13   17   -4       3.17    74.37     2.38    48.95     8.73   -25.12     0.02     0.13     1.13     0.28P   29.16R   13.03  
Mansfield        13   16   +2      -5.66    13.22    -3.72    68.97     9.10    13.46     3.61    15.03    43.94    24.20P    0.31R    0.05  
Cambridge_Utd    13   16   +2       0.18    52.62     4.71    57.58     8.82    -2.72     0.14     1.22     7.78     2.47P    5.52R    1.75  
Leyton_Orient    13   16   -3       1.14    59.73     1.61    52.41     9.13   -16.87     0.05     0.40     2.88     0.83P   17.44R    7.22  
Northampton      13   15   -2      -3.07    27.90    -2.35    60.66     9.07    -1.28     0.46     2.64    13.88     5.34P    3.09R    0.90  
Walsall          13   15   -8      -2.99    28.60    -8.41    61.21     9.29    -6.15     0.51     3.17    15.35     6.16P    3.25R    0.97  
Carlisle         13   14   -8      -2.51    31.78    -5.90    58.26     9.14    -9.73     0.17     1.44     8.85     3.01P    5.99R    2.05  
Oldham           13   11   -9      -5.73    12.97    -7.32    57.71     9.17    -6.79     0.16     1.35     8.17     3.02P    6.46R    2.29  
Scunthorpe       13   10   -5      -9.69     3.02    -7.83    60.03     9.65     2.23     0.55     3.15    14.58     6.68P    4.42R    1.54  
Stevenage        13    8   -9      -8.43     3.99    -7.12    49.16     8.90   -14.75     0.00     0.10     1.08     0.34P   26.61R   12.22  
Morecambe        13    7  -13      -6.35     8.90    -5.96    40.75     8.59   -30.91     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   65.84R   46.98  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 October 2019, Wrexham 0 1 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax            17   32  +10       7.89    90.87     8.61    74.23     8.16    13.84     7.15    50.00    16.05P    0.16R    0.01  
Bromley            17   32   +6       6.95    87.18     3.54    75.31     8.44    11.09     9.47    54.10    18.58P    0.16R    0.00  
Yeovil             17   31  +10       0.90    55.49    -0.16    83.07     8.50    28.45    38.15    85.34    53.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Barrow             16   28   +9       4.10    75.94     6.13    71.61     8.62    12.63     4.93    38.38    12.15P    0.65R    0.01  
Notts_County       17   27   +9      -3.27    29.02    -1.56    79.44     8.49    28.08    22.37    74.43    40.78P    0.06R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     17   27   +8      -0.14    49.02     2.32    73.62     8.40    18.07     7.06    48.30    18.19P    0.26R    0.00  
Woking             17   27   +6       4.53    76.60     7.37    65.89     8.85     4.58     1.50    17.81     4.73P    3.57R    0.14  
Harrogate_Town     17   26   +3       0.73    55.15     0.10    69.68     8.43     8.69     2.81    29.55     8.95P    1.07R    0.02  
Torquay            17   25   +3       3.32    70.26     5.93    62.11     8.85    -1.60     0.61     9.14     2.31P    8.59R    0.56  
Barnet             17   25   +3       0.23    51.79     0.76    68.57     8.30     8.65     2.00    25.26     7.59P    1.35R    0.03  
Boreham_Wood       17   24   +6       0.05    50.74     5.06    64.81     8.32     7.53     0.93    13.91     3.55P    3.61R    0.10  
Dag_&_Red          16   24   +1       2.06    64.29     0.92    66.01     8.51     2.32     1.16    16.44     4.36P    3.24R    0.11  
Eastleigh          17   24   -1       1.51    60.66     0.38    62.27     8.22    -3.29     0.35     7.44     1.68P    6.96R    0.28  
Dover_Athletic     16   24   -2       1.95    63.40    -2.09    64.18     8.63    -3.79     0.92    12.30     3.14P    5.13R    0.23  
Hartlepool         17   23   -1       0.14    51.65    -0.29    60.18     8.22    -5.17     0.21     4.87     1.13P   10.89R    0.59  
Maidenhead         17   21   +2       0.05    51.31     5.51    55.90     8.14    -5.28     0.05     1.85     0.33P   22.78R    1.76  
Stockport          16   21   -8       4.50    78.91     0.55    51.60     8.52   -24.15     0.02     0.76     0.13P   45.45R    6.91  
Chesterfield       17   18   -6      -5.75    17.26    -6.61    57.24     8.34    -7.03     0.07     2.51     0.66P   19.03R    1.72  
Aldershot          17   18   -6      -1.68    39.43    -0.90    50.58     7.88   -16.27     0.00     0.31     0.06P   48.11R    6.65  
Sutton_United      16   16   -4      -4.65    20.91    -2.09    54.60     8.43    -7.67     0.04     1.43     0.34P   28.62R    2.99  
Wrexham            17   16   -6      -7.81     9.32    -6.91    56.70     8.21    -4.37     0.05     2.06     0.55P   19.67R    1.67  
AFC_Fylde          16   16  -12      -6.81    12.14   -13.10    58.27     8.72   -10.57     0.13     3.69     0.96P   17.76R    1.45  
Chorley            17   13  -15      -2.32    35.54    -2.91    38.78     7.89   -36.11     0.00     0.00     0.00P   91.61R   60.18  
Ebbsfleet_United   17   10  -15     -10.52     3.27   -10.56    47.60     8.35   -18.60     0.00     0.12     0.02P   61.26R   14.60