Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 15 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2019, Arsenal 1 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         8   24  +14       6.00    97.26     1.58    89.52     7.48    56.26    60.05    94.40    98.80    99.66    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          8   16  +18      -3.81    11.14     0.88    86.02     7.06    72.40    38.19    89.94    97.31    99.15    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   15   +2       1.66    66.37    -1.74    65.78     8.60    17.09     0.48     4.06    24.81    45.86    76.03     0.03R    0.00  
Leicester         8   14   +7       2.99    79.00     7.25    60.82     8.47    15.11     0.09     1.25    10.31    23.93    56.06     0.18R    0.01  
Chelsea           8   14   +4      -0.30    46.67    -1.30    67.33     8.44    23.46     0.66     5.51    32.42    54.11    82.15     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   14   +0       3.07    79.25     0.08    51.27     8.23    -7.28     0.00     0.07     1.11     3.53    14.49     2.64R    0.25  
Burnley           8   12   +2       2.13    72.03     3.83    46.10     8.09   -10.44     0.00     0.01     0.25     0.96     5.38     8.69R    1.17  
West_Ham          8   12   +0       1.31    63.58     0.68    49.05     8.26    -8.47     0.00     0.02     0.63     2.21    10.23     4.71R    0.55  
Tottenham         8   11   +2      -3.28    18.37    -3.07    66.08     8.35    24.33     0.49     4.03    26.47    48.45    79.01     0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth       8   11   +0       1.48    66.34     3.21    47.79     8.36    -9.76     0.00     0.03     0.44     1.66     8.03     6.86R    1.04  
Wolverhampton     8   10   +0       0.34    54.45     2.49    49.70     8.34    -2.99     0.00     0.02     0.76     2.53    11.35     4.19R    0.50  
Man_Utd           8    9   +1      -4.20    14.67    -2.27    58.62     8.30    13.68     0.05     0.67     6.26    16.31    45.85     0.38R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd         8    9   +0       0.40    55.88     3.78    41.88     8.28   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.34     2.21    21.14R    4.41  
Brighton          8    9   -2       0.80    60.32     2.96    40.40     7.90   -17.26     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.14     1.18    25.65R    5.46  
Aston_Villa       8    8   +1      -1.08    40.52     4.63    39.30     8.37   -18.11     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.14     1.20    31.86R    8.53  
Newcastle         8    8   -8      -0.78    42.75    -4.30    42.75     8.02   -18.12     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.31     2.14    18.12R    3.24  
Southampton       8    7   -7      -0.82    42.88    -1.78    39.86     8.03   -22.60     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.97    29.26R    7.23  
Everton           8    7   -7      -3.73    16.30    -6.40    44.38     8.16   -14.15     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.57     3.52    13.10R    2.40  
Norwich           8    6  -11      -0.35    47.99    -0.79    33.36     8.24   -39.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.25    61.90R   28.48  
Watford           8    3  -16      -4.89     7.58    -9.71    31.38     7.79   -39.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.06    71.29R   36.70  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bristol_City 1 0 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       11   22   +8       2.92    72.98     1.77    83.55     9.69    29.06    32.88    51.35    84.91    61.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +7       6.44    91.62     6.27    74.60     9.56    13.87     7.22    16.54    54.15    25.10P    0.13R    0.01  
Preston         11   21  +11       3.49    76.80     7.28    75.52     9.77    20.74    10.03    20.95    59.27    30.28P    0.15R    0.02  
Swansea         11   21   +7       3.72    78.48     3.73    75.29     9.60    16.32     8.82    19.01    57.66    28.72P    0.13R    0.01  
Leeds_United    11   20   +8       2.48    69.77     4.46    77.43     9.56    22.04    12.81    26.27    66.83    37.68P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_City    11   20   +5       3.90    79.42     3.49    72.87     9.67    12.14     5.93    13.40    47.45    21.28P    0.28R    0.02  
Fulham          11   19  +10       0.28    51.80     4.54    75.93    10.30    23.57    11.91    23.85    60.75    34.48P    0.19R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed       11   19   +7       2.14    67.27     4.29    69.09     9.52    10.03     2.77     7.02    32.46    12.84P    0.67R    0.05  
QPR             11   19   -1       5.62    88.55     1.88    60.04     9.46   -12.81     0.26     0.92     8.23     1.98P    7.26R    1.24  
Charlton        11   18   +3       3.55    77.53     3.86    62.53     9.83    -2.03     0.66     2.00    13.71     4.31P    4.58R    0.73  
Cardiff         11   16   +0      -0.46    46.25    -2.01    67.89    10.04     5.83     2.38     6.17    29.09    12.08P    1.41R    0.18  
Birmingham      11   16   -3       2.61    72.09    -0.61    59.82     9.43    -9.19     0.25     0.81     7.52     1.98P    7.27R    1.15  
Derby           11   15   +0      -1.82    35.16    -2.60    68.60     9.66     8.30     2.43     6.32    30.96    12.99P    0.98R    0.11  
Blackburn       11   14   -2      -0.48    46.69    -0.82    59.22     9.45    -6.42     0.21     0.77     7.31     2.04P    7.95R    1.38  
Millwall        11   14   -4       1.32    62.57    -0.54    56.35     9.14   -11.67     0.06     0.22     3.50     0.87P   12.78R    2.55  
Hull            11   13   -2      -2.13    33.15    -1.93    58.44     9.68    -6.69     0.21     0.73     6.69     1.96P    9.59R    1.96  
Brentford       11   12   +0      -3.96    19.92    -1.35    64.14     9.57     6.15     0.87     2.59    17.15     6.38P    2.86R    0.39  
Luton           11   11   -5      -2.31    32.44    -1.93    52.87     9.89   -15.41     0.06     0.24     2.46     0.69P   24.23R    6.63  
Wigan           11   11   -7      -1.93    34.61    -3.87    53.27     9.23   -15.08     0.03     0.11     1.76     0.42P   21.64R    5.19  
Middlesbrough   11   10   -5      -5.97     9.59    -6.40    59.01     9.27    -2.95     0.19     0.65     6.53     2.18P    7.56R    1.29  
Huddersfield    11    8   -6      -4.94    13.85    -2.82    48.08     9.39   -17.13     0.01     0.04     0.60     0.17P   40.93R   13.98  
Reading         11    8   -6      -3.51    22.27    -0.50    47.74     9.16   -18.52     0.00     0.02     0.45     0.09P   42.06R   14.68  
Barnsley        11    6  -14      -5.33    11.39    -8.22    43.26     9.41   -30.86     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P   62.71R   32.09  
Stoke           11    5  -11      -7.94     3.08    -7.96    47.30     9.33   -19.32     0.01     0.02     0.41     0.09P   44.57R   16.32  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 13 October 2019, Coventry 0 1 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              11   27  +16       7.33    94.75     9.08    87.60     9.26    39.41    56.08    74.60    95.74    80.86P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              12   23   +8       5.13    85.01     5.89    64.36     8.81     3.55     0.76     2.68    21.99     5.95P    1.01R    0.00  
Peterborough         12   21  +13       0.25    51.46     6.04    75.49     9.03    30.10     9.33    24.93    69.82    37.06P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       12   21   +3       3.46    76.06     1.29    64.19     8.70     2.03     0.66     2.47    20.54     5.88P    1.08R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       11   20   +6       2.66    71.54     2.56    70.29     9.24    13.52     3.26    10.48    46.19    18.53P    0.25R    0.00  
Blackpool            13   20   +2       1.17    59.41     0.46    62.92     8.47     2.62     0.40     1.59    16.74     4.70P    1.37R    0.01  
Coventry             12   20   +1       3.12    74.43     0.42    62.40     8.73    -1.13     0.42     1.57    15.43     4.12P    1.86R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           13   19  +10      -0.81    43.71     7.04    67.38     8.79    19.00     1.66     5.63    34.70    12.51P    0.49R    0.00  
Sunderland           11   19   +2      -0.14    48.30    -4.25    77.18     9.03    22.33    11.50    29.73    74.34    43.54P    0.02R    0.00  
Rotherham            11   18   +8      -0.38    46.57     2.85    73.56     9.72    24.12     7.91    19.95    60.99    31.58P    0.16R    0.00  
Doncaster            11   16   +0      -0.28    47.90    -1.72    66.97     9.19     8.64     1.49     5.34    32.19    11.66P    0.78R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         13   16   -2       0.30    53.23     1.50    54.93     8.81    -7.72     0.04     0.21     3.80     0.86P   10.84R    0.14  
Shrewsbury           11   16   -3       1.23    60.90    -2.66    59.57     8.82    -5.35     0.14     0.74     9.57     2.50P    3.90R    0.04  
Burton_Albion        10   15   +5       0.14    51.62     3.33    70.43     9.36    18.45     3.57    11.26    47.82    20.73P    0.31R    0.00  
Gillingham           12   14   +3      -2.39    31.44     3.17    58.05     8.99     2.74     0.14     0.68     8.07     2.20P    5.87R    0.05  
Portsmouth           10   13   +1      -3.27    22.51    -2.98    68.51     9.43    14.60     2.63     8.05    39.43    16.83P    0.58R    0.00  
Rochdale             12   13   -7      -0.64    46.00    -2.01    47.80     8.58   -22.89     0.00     0.02     0.56     0.10P   34.27R    1.15  
Tranmere             12   12   -5      -0.09    51.02     2.58    46.23     8.90   -21.07     0.00     0.02     0.48     0.08P   41.34R    1.76  
MK_Dons              12   12   -7      -1.77    36.77    -2.73    47.99     8.94   -20.10     0.01     0.03     0.86     0.18P   33.74R    1.25  
Accrington_Stanley   12   11   -6      -2.87    28.66    -1.89    47.54     8.56   -18.48     0.00     0.01     0.51     0.11P   34.18R    1.15  
AFC_Wimbledon        13    9   -6      -5.55    12.39    -0.55    44.89     8.36   -16.43     0.00     0.01     0.22     0.03P   45.27R    1.95  
Southend             12    4  -19      -9.03     2.00   -13.03    35.67     8.49   -41.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   84.60R   15.98  
Bolton               10   -8  -23      -4.27    13.58   -14.39    23.76     8.84   -46.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.03R   76.51  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2019, Carlisle 2 4 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Crewe            13   26   +7       7.09    91.24     5.38    74.76     9.28    12.18    10.98    32.66    66.09    39.64P    0.06R    0.01  
Exeter           13   26   +7       4.97    83.34     2.30    77.43     9.12    16.25    16.84    44.05    76.59    52.40P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford         13   24   +7       2.10    65.20     0.99    80.42     9.36    23.72    28.14    57.41    84.57    65.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     13   24   +7       4.23    79.69     4.07    74.39     9.06    14.81     9.90    31.38    65.60    39.99P    0.05R    0.02  
Newport_County   12   23   +6       6.28    90.11     5.36    72.42     9.12    10.46     6.73    23.19    56.74    30.31P    0.11R    0.01  
Cheltenham       12   22  +10       4.31    80.36     8.21    70.71     9.27    13.23     5.42    19.62    50.47    26.52P    0.18R    0.03  
Swindon          13   21   +4       1.57    62.21     1.57    70.78     9.16    10.84     5.09    19.24    50.32    26.93P    0.18R    0.05  
Colchester       13   19   +4      -1.09    41.46     0.67    69.12     9.05    11.39     3.62    14.96    43.44    22.55P    0.31R    0.07  
Crawley_Town     13   19   +1       2.72    70.67     3.44    60.30     9.06    -5.22     0.43     2.55    12.73     4.42P    3.47R    1.09  
Grimsby          13   18   +4       1.32    61.14     5.46    60.52     8.91     0.36     0.38     2.58    13.51     4.76P    2.82R    0.78  
Plymouth         13   17   +2      -3.58    24.96    -2.19    71.19     9.58    15.50     6.61    22.30    53.27    31.69P    0.27R    0.08  
Macclesfield     13   17   +0       2.21    68.12     4.35    51.90     8.61   -15.25     0.03     0.27     1.90     0.54P   17.12R    6.79  
Port_Vale        13   17   -2       1.00    58.91     0.40    56.47     8.80   -10.23     0.10     0.87     5.94     1.84P    7.18R    2.45  
Salford_City     13   17   -4       3.19    74.37     2.41    48.94     8.82   -25.15     0.02     0.12     1.13     0.29P   29.59R   13.26  
Mansfield        13   16   +2      -5.59    13.69    -3.60    68.80     9.12    13.25     3.52    14.81    42.94    23.54P    0.31R    0.07  
Cambridge_Utd    13   16   +2       0.14    52.13     4.60    57.80     8.78    -2.44     0.15     1.11     8.06     2.47P    5.27R    1.76  
Leyton_Orient    13   16   -3       1.22    60.34     1.76    52.07     9.11   -17.33     0.03     0.32     2.66     0.70P   18.26R    7.51  
Northampton      13   15   -2      -3.06    27.86    -2.35    60.69     9.16    -1.22     0.50     2.97    14.29     5.69P    3.14R    0.87  
Walsall          13   15   -8      -2.98    28.81    -8.42    61.37     9.33    -5.94     0.57     3.36    15.66     6.55P    3.09R    1.03  
Carlisle         13   14   -8      -2.56    31.77    -5.99    58.44     9.26    -9.42     0.21     1.67     9.48     3.37P    5.75R    1.96  
Oldham           13   11   -9      -5.82    12.60    -7.44    57.93     9.21    -6.54     0.17     1.33     8.75     3.14P    6.27R    2.16  
Scunthorpe       13   10   -5      -9.65     3.08    -7.75    60.06     9.63     2.22     0.53     3.13    14.70     6.67P    4.30R    1.46  
Stevenage        13    8   -9      -8.48     3.96    -7.16    49.10     8.92   -14.80     0.01     0.11     1.10     0.35P   26.85R   12.42  
Morecambe        13    7  -13      -6.40     8.60    -6.08    40.88     8.60   -30.68     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   65.38R   46.12  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 October 2019, Wrexham 0 1 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax            17   32  +10       7.88    90.96     8.61    74.22     8.17    13.81     7.41    49.80    16.32P    0.17R    0.00  
Bromley            17   32   +6       7.08    87.55     3.75    75.15     8.49    10.85     9.55    53.71    18.53P    0.20R    0.00  
Yeovil             17   31  +10       0.98    55.78    -0.06    83.06     8.48    28.42    38.04    85.43    53.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Barrow             16   28   +9       4.16    76.14     6.25    71.51     8.58    12.50     4.91    38.05    11.85P    0.62R    0.01  
Notts_County       17   27   +9      -3.26    29.12    -1.52    79.33     8.53    27.92    22.31    74.17    40.54P    0.05R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     17   27   +8      -0.28    48.14     2.09    73.64     8.37    18.15     7.16    48.81    18.39P    0.25R    0.01  
Woking             17   27   +6       4.59    76.80     7.47    65.90     8.78     4.62     1.52    17.65     4.61P    3.55R    0.13  
Harrogate_Town     17   26   +3       0.70    54.87     0.05    69.65     8.46     8.68     2.90    29.83     9.12P    1.06R    0.03  
Torquay            17   25   +3       3.21    69.86     5.75    62.20     8.81    -1.44     0.57     9.29     2.23P    8.55R    0.50  
Barnet             17   25   +3       0.28    52.09     0.81    68.51     8.18     8.53     1.89    24.61     7.28P    1.26R    0.04  
Boreham_Wood       17   24   +6       0.14    51.57     5.17    64.73     8.27     7.40     0.82    13.50     3.52P    3.66R    0.11  
Dag_&_Red          16   24   +1       2.02    63.83     0.92    65.90     8.47     2.24     1.18    16.50     4.36P    3.39R    0.11  
Eastleigh          17   24   -1       1.42    60.16     0.26    62.42     8.30    -3.05     0.33     8.23     1.86P    7.08R    0.29  
Dover_Athletic     16   24   -2       1.94    63.26    -2.13    64.20     8.57    -3.69     0.87    12.22     3.13P    5.17R    0.21  
Hartlepool         17   23   -1       0.15    51.72    -0.23    60.04     8.27    -5.36     0.19     4.99     1.21P   11.36R    0.58  
Maidenhead         17   21   +2       0.08    51.53     5.51    55.85     8.16    -5.39     0.04     1.85     0.38P   23.32R    1.86  
Stockport          16   21   -8       4.51    79.02     0.60    51.66     8.55   -24.08     0.01     0.74     0.11P   45.37R    6.92  
Chesterfield       17   18   -6      -5.78    17.13    -6.67    57.31     8.29    -6.93     0.10     2.60     0.71P   18.59R    1.64  
Aldershot          17   18   -6      -1.72    39.44    -0.93    50.70     7.84   -16.16     0.01     0.30     0.07P   47.21R    6.44  
Sutton_United      16   16   -4      -4.69    20.68    -2.21    54.71     8.43    -7.54     0.03     1.49     0.37P   28.45R    2.90  
Wrexham            17   16   -6      -7.89     8.98    -7.04    56.80     8.19    -4.19     0.04     2.20     0.59P   19.44R    1.59  
AFC_Fylde          16   16  -12      -6.74    12.41   -12.97    58.34     8.75   -10.49     0.14     3.89     1.04P   17.71R    1.48  
Chorley            17   13  -15      -2.36    35.48    -2.97    38.85     7.91   -36.08     0.00     0.01     0.00P   91.50R   60.21  
Ebbsfleet_United   17   10  -15     -10.50     3.21   -10.50    47.52     8.28   -18.70     0.00     0.13     0.04P   62.02R   14.94