Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 14 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2019, Arsenal 1 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         8   24  +14       5.93    97.14     1.50    89.65     7.47    56.45    59.61    94.72    98.80    99.70    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          8   16  +18      -3.86    10.69     0.77    86.29     6.97    72.86    38.72    90.64    97.63    99.31    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   15   +2       1.71    66.90    -1.66    65.55     8.58    16.66     0.43     3.60    23.97    44.65    75.31     0.05R    0.00  
Leicester         8   14   +7       2.94    78.61     7.17    60.96     8.53    15.35     0.11     1.17    10.79    24.85    56.73     0.17R    0.01  
Chelsea           8   14   +4      -0.25    46.92    -1.20    67.18     8.44    23.16     0.64     5.36    31.71    53.58    81.88     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   14   +0       3.15    80.08     0.18    51.04     8.28    -7.68     0.00     0.07     1.00     3.32    14.11     2.93R    0.31  
Burnley           8   12   +2       2.15    72.32     3.86    46.02     8.03   -10.55     0.00     0.01     0.22     0.86     5.37     8.74R    1.27  
West_Ham          8   12   +0       1.28    63.29     0.68    48.97     8.28    -8.64     0.00     0.03     0.65     2.23     9.91     4.92R    0.58  
Tottenham         8   11   +2      -3.29    18.22    -3.07    66.31     8.33    24.63     0.44     3.87    27.81    49.89    79.83     0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth       8   11   +0       1.52    66.50     3.25    47.83     8.52    -9.78     0.00     0.02     0.50     1.78     8.71     7.29R    1.10  
Wolverhampton     8   10   +0       0.28    53.89     2.43    49.82     8.30    -2.74     0.00     0.03     0.70     2.51    11.56     4.00R    0.45  
Man_Utd           8    9   +1      -4.15    14.94    -2.21    58.39     8.27    13.29     0.04     0.48     5.83    15.52    44.42     0.32R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd         8    9   +0       0.39    55.73     3.72    42.10     8.32   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.38     2.30    20.37R    4.27  
Brighton          8    9   -2       0.76    59.69     2.91    40.31     7.85   -17.37     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.15     1.24    25.85R    5.62  
Aston_Villa       8    8   +1      -1.08    40.31     4.62    39.24     8.36   -18.21     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.15     1.27    31.90R    8.34  
Newcastle         8    8   -8      -0.73    43.41    -4.26    42.71     7.98   -18.18     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.27     2.04    17.97R    2.99  
Southampton       8    7   -7      -0.82    42.86    -1.77    39.88     8.07   -22.53     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.14     1.06    29.19R    7.22  
Everton           8    7   -7      -3.76    16.05    -6.47    44.55     8.22   -13.80     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.68     4.02    12.75R    2.11  
Norwich           8    6  -11      -0.39    47.49    -0.85    33.55     8.32   -39.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.27    61.11R   27.47  
Watford           8    3  -16      -4.85     7.65    -9.61    31.12     7.80   -40.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    72.40R   38.24  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bristol_City 1 0 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       11   22   +8       2.90    72.88     1.71    83.61     9.67    29.17    33.24    51.49    85.17    61.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +7       6.41    91.57     6.19    74.69     9.49    13.99     7.27    16.72    55.00    25.34P    0.14R    0.01  
Preston         11   21  +11       3.49    76.69     7.31    75.54     9.86    20.76    10.20    21.33    59.23    30.70P    0.11R    0.01  
Swansea         11   21   +7       3.71    78.44     3.71    75.31     9.60    16.36     9.09    19.26    57.55    29.02P    0.16R    0.01  
Leeds_United    11   20   +8       2.43    69.56     4.39    77.69     9.51    22.42    13.37    27.09    68.08    38.82P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_City    11   20   +5       3.94    79.73     3.53    72.90     9.64    12.22     5.63    13.30    47.53    21.11P    0.31R    0.04  
Fulham          11   19  +10       0.40    52.98     4.76    75.62    10.12    23.09    10.94    22.37    59.53    33.00P    0.20R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       11   19   +7       2.17    67.98     4.37    68.90     9.50     9.90     2.70     6.91    31.92    12.57P    0.74R    0.06  
QPR             11   19   -1       5.53    87.97     1.72    60.19     9.46   -12.60     0.28     0.98     8.37     2.13P    6.98R    1.12  
Charlton        11   18   +3       3.57    77.70     3.87    62.59     9.71    -1.96     0.66     1.93    13.52     4.29P    4.26R    0.59  
Cardiff         11   16   +0      -0.36    47.37    -1.85    67.65    10.04     5.48     2.31     6.02    28.23    11.75P    1.48R    0.19  
Birmingham      11   16   -3       2.61    72.34    -0.58    59.77     9.35    -9.26     0.25     0.74     7.24     1.86P    7.17R    1.25  
Derby           11   15   +0      -1.78    35.46    -2.56    68.52     9.65     8.12     2.34     6.34    30.83    12.53P    1.00R    0.09  
Blackburn       11   14   -2      -0.48    46.95    -0.81    59.13     9.57    -6.57     0.24     0.84     7.28     2.21P    8.20R    1.48  
Millwall        11   14   -4       1.40    63.36    -0.42    56.18     9.12   -11.93     0.07     0.26     3.42     0.81P   13.35R    2.56  
Hull            11   13   -2      -2.17    32.92    -1.99    58.48     9.66    -6.62     0.23     0.70     6.85     2.13P    9.56R    1.83  
Brentford       11   12   +0      -3.97    20.10    -1.36    64.30     9.54     6.35     0.90     2.62    17.44     6.47P    2.68R    0.36  
Luton           11   11   -5      -2.43    31.51    -2.12    53.17     9.95   -14.97     0.06     0.21     2.71     0.67P   23.49R    6.46  
Wigan           11   11   -7      -1.95    34.49    -3.94    53.18     9.18   -15.18     0.03     0.12     1.76     0.43P   21.39R    5.08  
Middlesbrough   11   10   -5      -6.03     9.37    -6.47    59.23     9.26    -2.65     0.18     0.69     6.73     2.28P    7.18R    1.26  
Huddersfield    11    8   -6      -4.90    14.19    -2.77    47.89     9.48   -17.41     0.02     0.05     0.66     0.17P   41.64R   14.75  
Reading         11    8   -6      -3.54    21.86    -0.55    47.80     9.22   -18.42     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.10P   42.08R   14.42  
Barnsley        11    6  -14      -5.39    11.26    -8.30    43.33     9.46   -30.72     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.02P   62.42R   32.27  
Stoke           11    5  -11      -7.88     3.19    -7.86    47.08     9.18   -19.60     0.01     0.01     0.34     0.10P   45.41R   16.15  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 13 October 2019, Coventry 0 1 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              11   27  +16       7.22    94.56     8.92    87.83     9.22    39.85    57.06    75.63    95.99    81.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Wycombe              12   23   +8       5.17    85.24     5.98    64.24     8.87     3.38     0.76     2.77    21.42     5.96P    1.16R    0.00  
Peterborough         12   21  +13       0.34    52.18     6.18    75.31     9.05    29.84     8.95    23.84    68.89    35.95P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       12   21   +3       3.42    76.02     1.24    64.30     8.76     2.19     0.68     2.68    21.06     6.14P    1.03R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       11   20   +6       2.66    71.43     2.56    70.23     9.17    13.49     3.10    10.10    45.68    18.13P    0.24R    0.00  
Blackpool            13   20   +2       1.12    58.99     0.41    62.97     8.50     2.76     0.36     1.64    16.71     4.94P    1.36R    0.00  
Coventry             12   20   +1       3.09    74.21     0.39    62.39     8.82    -1.13     0.42     1.65    15.67     4.41P    2.02R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           13   19  +10      -0.80    44.06     7.07    67.30     8.79    18.92     1.55     5.54    34.15    12.26P    0.50R    0.00  
Sunderland           11   19   +2      -0.15    48.28    -4.28    77.28     9.02    22.51    11.60    30.07    74.70    43.98P    0.02R    0.00  
Rotherham            11   18   +8      -0.38    46.59     2.83    73.48     9.72    23.97     7.65    19.55    60.57    30.99P    0.17R    0.00  
Doncaster            11   16   +0      -0.29    47.87    -1.75    67.02     9.21     8.78     1.45     5.22    32.24    11.58P    0.77R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         13   16   -2       0.26    53.26     1.44    55.08     8.83    -7.56     0.04     0.25     4.05     0.94P   10.13R    0.11  
Shrewsbury           11   16   -3       1.22    61.11    -2.70    59.75     8.84    -5.08     0.16     0.86    10.06     2.64P    3.54R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        10   15   +5       0.06    50.88     3.20    70.74     9.25    18.89     3.63    11.45    48.99    21.07P    0.24R    0.00  
Gillingham           12   14   +3      -2.38    31.70     3.14    58.08     8.96     2.74     0.16     0.63     7.86     2.06P    5.70R    0.04  
Portsmouth           10   13   +1      -3.22    22.95    -2.92    68.49     9.49    14.56     2.42     8.06    39.41    16.85P    0.66R    0.00  
Rochdale             12   13   -7      -0.55    46.73    -1.85    47.62     8.64   -23.31     0.00     0.02     0.58     0.11P   34.66R    1.20  
Tranmere             12   12   -5      -0.02    51.52     2.69    45.91     8.88   -21.60     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.07P   42.62R    1.74  
MK_Dons              12   12   -7      -1.86    36.02    -2.88    48.11     8.97   -19.78     0.01     0.03     0.82     0.15P   33.07R    1.18  
Accrington_Stanley   12   11   -6      -2.99    27.64    -2.03    47.69     8.60   -18.23     0.00     0.01     0.58     0.12P   33.39R    1.05  
AFC_Wimbledon        13    9   -6      -5.49    12.72    -0.49    44.78     8.38   -16.56     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   45.77R    1.96  
Southend             12    4  -19      -9.03     1.89   -13.03    35.60     8.40   -41.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   84.66R   15.26  
Bolton               10   -8  -23      -4.14    14.47   -14.14    23.48     8.79   -47.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.25R   77.43  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2019, Carlisle 2 4 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Crewe            13   26   +7       7.01    90.96     5.25    74.92     9.24    12.49    11.07    32.97    66.77    40.08P    0.06R    0.01  
Exeter           13   26   +7       4.87    82.93     2.16    77.69     9.04    16.63    17.38    44.64    77.26    53.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Bradford         13   24   +7       2.07    64.84     0.96    80.51     9.30    23.82    28.57    57.75    85.06    65.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green     13   24   +7       4.24    79.58     4.09    74.30     9.04    14.65     9.72    30.85    65.22    39.32P    0.04R    0.00  
Newport_County   12   23   +6       6.40    90.33     5.53    72.26     9.20    10.28     6.58    23.44    55.86    30.68P    0.13R    0.02  
Cheltenham       12   22  +10       4.35    80.62     8.27    70.47     9.30    12.89     5.16    19.04    49.55    25.55P    0.20R    0.05  
Swindon          13   21   +4       1.62    62.48     1.65    70.59     9.14    10.58     4.60    18.62    49.38    26.13P    0.22R    0.04  
Colchester       13   19   +4      -1.04    41.91     0.73    68.99     9.01    11.23     3.46    14.60    43.07    22.24P    0.29R    0.07  
Crawley_Town     13   19   +1       2.77    71.03     3.51    60.25     9.10    -5.32     0.43     2.46    12.84     4.44P    3.58R    1.07  
Grimsby          13   18   +4       1.25    60.37     5.34    60.63     8.93     0.53     0.41     2.58    13.72     4.82P    2.78R    0.76  
Plymouth         13   17   +2      -3.64    24.73    -2.27    71.28     9.55    15.65     6.70    22.62    53.58    31.89P    0.27R    0.05  
Macclesfield     13   17   +0       2.29    68.92     4.47    51.73     8.55   -15.58     0.03     0.20     1.86     0.43P   17.16R    6.64  
Port_Vale        13   17   -2       1.01    58.78     0.42    56.59     8.86   -10.04     0.09     0.89     6.16     1.90P    7.26R    2.41  
Salford_City     13   17   -4       3.24    74.69     2.53    48.86     8.78   -25.28     0.02     0.12     1.12     0.28P   29.59R   13.39  
Mansfield        13   16   +2      -5.62    13.84    -3.66    68.95     9.12    13.45     3.56    15.06    43.68    24.01P    0.33R    0.08  
Cambridge_Utd    13   16   +2       0.10    51.85     4.56    57.78     8.88    -2.45     0.15     1.27     8.17     2.56P    5.28R    1.86  
Leyton_Orient    13   16   -3       1.15    59.99     1.63    52.28     9.09   -17.03     0.04     0.41     2.81     0.80P   17.56R    7.31  
Northampton      13   15   -2      -3.16    27.31    -2.50    60.85     9.21    -1.00     0.51     3.03    14.84     5.93P    3.05R    0.88  
Walsall          13   15   -8      -3.04    28.25    -8.48    61.42     9.34    -5.81     0.55     3.42    15.67     6.68P    3.17R    0.98  
Carlisle         13   14   -8      -2.67    30.60    -6.16    58.56     9.20    -9.22     0.23     1.50     9.48     3.22P    5.59R    1.95  
Oldham           13   11   -9      -5.67    13.27    -7.20    57.65     9.23    -6.93     0.16     1.31     8.32     3.11P    6.68R    2.32  
Scunthorpe       13   10   -5      -9.67     3.09    -7.79    60.09     9.59     2.24     0.56     3.17    14.50     6.75P    4.34R    1.42  
Stevenage        13    8   -9      -8.37     4.13    -7.00    49.03     8.85   -14.91     0.00     0.06     0.99     0.29P   26.79R   12.34  
Morecambe        13    7  -13      -6.37     8.62    -6.02    40.79     8.60   -30.88     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.01P   65.60R   46.34  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2019, Aldershot 0 3 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax            17   32  +10       7.90    90.88     8.67    74.23     8.23    13.85     7.29    50.14    16.05P    0.20R    0.00  
Bromley            17   32   +6       7.06    87.58     3.71    75.10     8.54    10.82     9.49    53.06    18.24P    0.20R    0.00  
Yeovil             17   31  +10       0.89    55.16    -0.19    83.15     8.39    28.53    38.59    85.85    54.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Barrow             16   28   +9       4.01    75.29     6.02    71.91     8.59    13.08     5.37    39.89    12.92P    0.53R    0.01  
Notts_County       17   27   +9      -3.21    29.48    -1.46    79.33     8.45    27.91    21.79    74.06    40.33P    0.03R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     17   27   +8      -0.22    48.36     2.22    73.66     8.35    18.16     7.04    48.76    18.46P    0.25R    0.00  
Woking             17   27   +6       4.59    76.95     7.43    65.88     8.78     4.61     1.33    17.42     4.61P    3.65R    0.14  
Harrogate_Town     17   26   +3       0.73    54.95     0.10    69.75     8.44     8.79     2.88    29.98     9.00P    1.03R    0.02  
Torquay            17   25   +3       3.37    70.69     6.01    61.95     8.85    -1.88     0.57     8.95     2.16P    8.74R    0.58  
Barnet             17   25   +3       0.20    51.54     0.72    68.54     8.20     8.62     1.93    24.72     7.24P    1.22R    0.03  
Boreham_Wood       17   24   +6       0.02    50.43     4.99    64.81     8.27     7.52     0.87    13.59     3.58P    3.57R    0.13  
Dag_&_Red          16   24   +1       2.09    64.42     0.98    65.81     8.47     2.04     1.11    15.91     4.16P    3.24R    0.10  
Eastleigh          17   24   -1       1.50    60.65     0.35    62.24     8.33    -3.31     0.39     7.87     1.86P    7.25R    0.30  
Dover_Athletic     16   24   -2       1.93    63.25    -2.13    64.08     8.48    -3.90     0.80    11.63     2.99P    5.10R    0.18  
Hartlepool         17   23   -1       0.18    51.89    -0.19    60.11     8.25    -5.27     0.18     4.94     1.05P   10.88R    0.65  
Maidenhead         17   21   +2       0.14    51.78     5.63    55.80     8.14    -5.51     0.06     1.70     0.30P   22.86R    1.93  
Stockport          16   21   -8       4.42    78.84     0.44    51.80     8.48   -23.83     0.03     0.72     0.12P   43.87R    6.83  
Aldershot          17   18   -6      -1.69    39.87    -0.90    50.55     7.88   -16.31     0.00     0.32     0.05P   47.88R    6.76  
Sutton_United      16   16   -4      -4.65    21.00    -2.13    54.52     8.42    -7.74     0.02     1.38     0.27P   28.59R    3.11  
Wrexham            16   16   -5      -6.62    12.23    -6.10    58.85     8.38    -2.30     0.11     3.85     0.99P   14.10R    1.10  
AFC_Fylde          16   16  -12      -6.77    12.37   -13.04    58.25     8.62   -10.62     0.11     3.54     0.93P   17.30R    1.47  
Chesterfield       16   15   -7      -7.26    10.78    -7.45    55.00     8.52    -8.97     0.04     1.60     0.39P   27.28R    3.25  
Chorley            17   13  -15      -2.45    34.79    -3.09    39.08     7.82   -35.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.08R   58.68  
Ebbsfleet_United   17   10  -15     -10.53     3.19   -10.56    47.62     8.26   -18.55     0.00     0.12     0.03P   61.16R   14.72