Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 13 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2019, Arsenal 1 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         8   24  +14       5.95    97.22     1.51    89.66     7.48    56.48    60.33    94.68    98.74    99.65    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          8   16  +18      -3.83    10.93     0.88    86.04     7.01    72.43    37.94    90.04    97.47    99.24    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   15   +2       1.70    66.80    -1.64    65.59     8.64    16.72     0.44     3.91    24.69    45.01    75.45     0.06R    0.01  
Leicester         8   14   +7       3.01    79.11     7.29    60.75     8.53    14.99     0.09     1.16    10.35    24.07    55.86     0.18R    0.01  
Chelsea           8   14   +4      -0.39    45.70    -1.41    67.42     8.45    23.56     0.69     5.54    32.81    54.70    82.53     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   14   +0       3.15    79.89     0.18    51.06     8.21    -7.64     0.00     0.07     1.10     3.47    14.14     2.87R    0.24  
Burnley           8   12   +2       2.14    72.00     3.82    46.14     8.08   -10.31     0.00     0.01     0.22     0.89     5.28     8.72R    1.22  
West_Ham          8   12   +0       1.23    62.89     0.62    49.16     8.31    -8.26     0.00     0.02     0.74     2.34    10.50     4.78R    0.55  
Tottenham         8   11   +2      -3.22    18.81    -2.98    66.01     8.33    24.11     0.44     3.83    26.13    48.58    79.02     0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth       8   11   +0       1.50    66.30     3.20    47.86     8.44    -9.67     0.00     0.02     0.48     1.83     8.51     6.90R    1.03  
Wolverhampton     8   10   +0       0.34    54.67     2.48    49.66     8.24    -2.97     0.00     0.03     0.63     2.30    11.29     4.05R    0.51  
Man_Utd           8    9   +1      -4.15    14.87    -2.24    58.52     8.27    13.47     0.06     0.69     6.23    16.17    45.44     0.35R    0.03  
Sheff_Utd         8    9   +0       0.40    55.69     3.79    41.89     8.29   -13.92     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.33     2.26    20.85R    4.44  
Brighton          8    9   -2       0.77    59.71     2.91    40.46     7.86   -17.15     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.15     1.19    25.46R    5.37  
Aston_Villa       8    8   +1      -1.11    40.42     4.57    39.37     8.31   -17.94     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.14     1.19    31.42R    8.27  
Newcastle         8    8   -8      -0.82    42.52    -4.37    42.78     8.00   -18.04     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.27     2.11    17.59R    3.08  
Southampton       8    7   -7      -0.80    43.13    -1.78    39.91     8.07   -22.50     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.15     1.09    29.19R    7.10  
Everton           8    7   -7      -3.79    16.16    -6.48    44.55     8.24   -13.83     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.66     3.98    13.04R    2.22  
Norwich           8    6  -11      -0.32    48.43    -0.75    33.29     8.23   -39.54     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.22    62.63R   28.49  
Watford           8    3  -16      -4.82     7.82    -9.60    31.21     7.79   -39.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    71.85R   37.42  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bristol_City 1 0 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       11   22   +8       2.84    72.49     1.64    83.74     9.71    29.36    33.65    51.95    85.42    62.30P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +7       6.40    91.53     6.21    74.75     9.55    14.10     7.36    16.80    54.98    25.32P    0.17R    0.01  
Preston         11   21  +11       3.39    76.15     7.17    75.69     9.86    21.02    10.34    21.64    59.87    31.16P    0.16R    0.01  
Swansea         11   21   +7       3.69    78.28     3.70    75.38     9.50    16.47     8.61    19.07    58.17    28.85P    0.12R    0.01  
Leeds_United    11   20   +8       2.47    69.49     4.43    77.54     9.58    22.15    13.11    26.69    67.09    38.09P    0.08R    0.01  
Bristol_City    11   20   +5       3.90    79.43     3.48    72.83     9.64    12.11     5.61    13.03    47.04    20.91P    0.29R    0.03  
Fulham          11   19  +10       0.36    52.61     4.66    75.77    10.14    23.34    11.31    22.95    60.29    33.70P    0.21R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       11   19   +7       2.12    67.54     4.29    69.15     9.50    10.20     2.70     6.92    32.91    12.94P    0.70R    0.08  
QPR             11   19   -1       5.62    88.42     1.88    59.95     9.50   -12.95     0.29     0.97     7.96     2.08P    7.38R    1.20  
Charlton        11   18   +3       3.58    77.56     3.92    62.52     9.83    -2.06     0.70     1.98    13.54     4.18P    4.41R    0.62  
Cardiff         11   16   +0      -0.41    46.75    -1.91    67.75     9.97     5.62     2.21     5.91    28.66    11.57P    1.50R    0.22  
Birmingham      11   16   -3       2.60    72.03    -0.60    59.77     9.33    -9.27     0.23     0.76     7.37     1.98P    7.21R    1.19  
Derby           11   15   +0      -1.78    35.53    -2.56    68.48     9.68     8.15     2.36     6.27    30.55    12.59P    1.02R    0.12  
Blackburn       11   14   -2      -0.47    46.61    -0.81    59.11     9.49    -6.55     0.20     0.77     7.10     2.01P    8.28R    1.53  
Millwall        11   14   -4       1.35    62.91    -0.52    56.41     9.07   -11.62     0.06     0.26     3.53     0.84P   12.52R    2.27  
Hull            11   13   -2      -2.10    33.54    -1.90    58.38     9.64    -6.80     0.21     0.71     6.38     1.85P    9.61R    1.95  
Brentford       11   12   +0      -3.88    20.51    -1.24    63.91     9.55     5.83     0.82     2.33    16.62     6.07P    2.99R    0.44  
Luton           11   11   -5      -2.32    32.34    -1.91    52.73     9.95   -15.68     0.05     0.22     2.51     0.66P   25.01R    6.97  
Wigan           11   11   -7      -1.92    34.53    -3.84    53.22     9.23   -15.18     0.03     0.11     1.84     0.42P   21.60R    5.41  
Middlesbrough   11   10   -5      -5.92     9.56    -6.33    58.96     9.28    -3.03     0.14     0.59     6.49     2.15P    7.80R    1.23  
Huddersfield    11    8   -6      -4.98    13.72    -2.90    48.18     9.48   -16.94     0.01     0.03     0.66     0.15P   40.62R   13.95  
Reading         11    8   -6      -3.61    21.28    -0.65    47.99     9.26   -18.11     0.00     0.02     0.48     0.09P   41.34R   14.47  
Barnsley        11    6  -14      -5.39    11.38    -8.28    43.40     9.49   -30.70     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P   62.04R   31.82  
Stoke           11    5  -11      -7.92     3.21    -7.91    47.16     9.22   -19.46     0.00     0.01     0.37     0.08P   44.93R   16.45  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 13 October 2019, Coventry 0 1 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              11   27  +16       7.28    94.73     9.01    87.63     9.23    39.56    56.18    74.89    95.71    81.05P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              12   23   +8       5.12    85.14     5.88    64.27     8.82     3.39     0.74     2.80    21.56     6.04P    1.03R    0.00  
Peterborough         12   21  +13       0.27    51.67     6.09    75.41     9.01    29.97     9.04    24.52    69.40    36.59P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       12   21   +3       3.43    76.04     1.27    64.34     8.74     2.23     0.70     2.64    21.20     6.14P    1.03R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town       11   20   +6       2.70    71.51     2.64    70.15     9.19    13.32     3.08     9.80    45.49    17.76P    0.26R    0.00  
Blackpool            13   20   +2       1.09    58.62     0.36    63.07     8.50     2.89     0.45     1.73    17.14     4.93P    1.39R    0.00  
Coventry             12   20   +1       3.07    74.12     0.38    62.34     8.77    -1.21     0.39     1.63    15.42     4.27P    1.97R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           13   19  +10      -0.66    45.07     7.25    67.10     8.86    18.55     1.50     5.32    33.55    11.98P    0.54R    0.00  
Sunderland           11   19   +2      -0.20    47.84    -4.38    77.36     9.09    22.62    11.98    30.52    74.89    44.16P    0.02R    0.00  
Rotherham            11   18   +8      -0.38    46.70     2.83    73.61     9.68    24.21     7.77    19.82    61.08    31.46P    0.13R    0.00  
Doncaster            11   16   +0      -0.29    47.66    -1.74    67.01     9.23     8.74     1.50     5.33    32.50    11.77P    0.78R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         13   16   -2       0.24    52.88     1.40    55.19     8.85    -7.42     0.05     0.28     4.15     0.99P   10.04R    0.12  
Shrewsbury           11   16   -3       1.19    60.75    -2.74    59.67     8.87    -5.14     0.16     0.77     9.95     2.63P    3.71R    0.03  
Burton_Albion        10   15   +5       0.09    51.13     3.27    70.59     9.32    18.71     3.69    11.32    48.54    20.95P    0.26R    0.00  
Gillingham           12   14   +3      -2.39    31.61     3.14    58.02     8.98     2.61     0.13     0.60     7.88     2.14P    5.91R    0.06  
Portsmouth           10   13   +1      -3.19    23.39    -2.83    68.40     9.44    14.41     2.62     7.95    38.93    16.68P    0.57R    0.00  
Rochdale             12   13   -7      -0.63    45.98    -2.00    47.80     8.53   -22.99     0.00     0.01     0.56     0.09P   33.77R    1.04  
Tranmere             12   12   -5      -0.04    51.43     2.64    45.95     8.89   -21.50     0.01     0.01     0.42     0.07P   42.70R    1.85  
MK_Dons              12   12   -7      -1.84    36.30    -2.83    48.21     8.96   -19.67     0.00     0.02     0.87     0.15P   32.48R    1.20  
Accrington_Stanley   12   11   -6      -2.86    28.70    -1.92    47.49     8.57   -18.51     0.00     0.02     0.51     0.09P   33.90R    1.19  
AFC_Wimbledon        13    9   -6      -5.45    12.85    -0.42    44.69     8.44   -16.66     0.00     0.01     0.23     0.05P   46.43R    2.07  
Southend             12    4  -19      -9.00     1.89   -13.02    35.68     8.35   -41.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   84.84R   15.31  
Bolton               10   -8  -23      -4.22    13.95   -14.29    23.64     8.74   -46.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.20R   77.11  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2019, Carlisle 2 4 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Crewe            13   26   +7       7.09    91.25     5.37    74.70     9.27    12.14    10.62    32.48    65.82    39.70P    0.05R    0.01  
Exeter           13   26   +7       4.87    82.97     2.17    77.76     8.98    16.72    17.64    44.95    77.57    53.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Bradford         13   24   +7       2.12    65.28     1.01    80.36     9.43    23.65    28.25    57.39    84.35    65.55P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     13   24   +7       4.24    79.67     4.06    74.38     9.01    14.79     9.65    30.84    65.55    39.65P    0.04R    0.01  
Newport_County   12   23   +6       6.25    90.11     5.31    72.57     9.18    10.68     6.95    24.28    57.52    31.63P    0.08R    0.02  
Cheltenham       12   22  +10       4.36    80.69     8.28    70.41     9.31    12.76     5.14    18.98    49.14    25.39P    0.23R    0.06  
Swindon          13   21   +4       1.57    62.07     1.59    70.68     9.17    10.67     4.98    18.96    49.75    26.50P    0.21R    0.03  
Colchester       13   19   +4      -1.18    40.91     0.54    69.21     9.03    11.53     3.71    15.28    44.12    23.02P    0.25R    0.06  
Crawley_Town     13   19   +1       2.65    70.27     3.32    60.47     9.06    -4.87     0.48     2.54    13.13     4.47P    3.26R    0.98  
Grimsby          13   18   +4       1.25    60.41     5.34    60.80     8.97     0.77     0.41     2.69    14.22     5.11P    2.65R    0.76  
Plymouth         13   17   +2      -3.56    25.10    -2.16    71.07     9.59    15.30     6.45    21.87    52.68    31.23P    0.26R    0.07  
Macclesfield     13   17   +0       2.24    68.24     4.39    52.04     8.70   -15.08     0.03     0.29     2.17     0.64P   16.82R    6.42  
Port_Vale        13   17   -2       1.02    58.93     0.45    56.55     8.82   -10.09     0.12     0.94     6.09     1.89P    7.04R    2.36  
Salford_City     13   17   -4       3.21    74.41     2.47    48.79     8.76   -25.43     0.01     0.11     1.09     0.26P   29.78R   13.34  
Mansfield        13   16   +2      -5.59    13.71    -3.61    68.83     9.09    13.30     3.48    14.65    43.18    23.49P    0.32R    0.07  
Cambridge_Utd    13   16   +2       0.21    52.69     4.73    57.56     8.82    -2.79     0.15     1.15     7.65     2.34P    5.39R    1.75  
Leyton_Orient    13   16   -3       1.18    60.09     1.70    52.29     9.25   -17.05     0.05     0.41     2.95     0.88P   18.06R    7.56  
Northampton      13   15   -2      -3.07    27.72    -2.35    60.67     9.07    -1.25     0.40     2.72    14.07     5.39P    3.04R    0.97  
Walsall          13   15   -8      -3.01    28.49    -8.44    61.45     9.35    -5.78     0.57     3.32    15.88     6.51P    3.12R    0.93  
Carlisle         13   14   -8      -2.55    31.47    -5.98    58.36     9.15    -9.55     0.21     1.55     9.03     3.09P    5.89R    1.99  
Oldham           13   11   -9      -5.70    13.12    -7.23    57.66     9.18    -6.91     0.17     1.25     8.22     2.93P    6.56R    2.25  
Scunthorpe       13   10   -5      -9.70     3.17    -7.83    60.08     9.66     2.26     0.52     3.24    14.68     6.69P    4.49R    1.49  
Stevenage        13    8   -9      -8.40     4.03    -7.05    49.04     8.90   -14.93     0.01     0.10     1.07     0.33P   27.03R   12.25  
Morecambe        13    7  -13      -6.39     8.61    -6.06    40.76     8.56   -30.84     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   65.43R   46.63  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2019, Aldershot 0 3 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax            17   32  +10       7.96    91.02     8.76    74.12     8.25    13.69     7.27    49.07    15.90P    0.17R    0.00  
Bromley            17   32   +6       7.02    87.24     3.67    75.10     8.51    10.80     9.35    52.81    18.12P    0.22R    0.01  
Yeovil             17   31  +10       0.92    55.33    -0.15    83.09     8.50    28.48    37.97    85.52    53.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Barrow             16   28   +9       4.01    75.23     5.97    71.83     8.66    12.95     5.33    39.43    12.70P    0.59R    0.01  
Notts_County       17   27   +9      -3.35    28.47    -1.68    79.50     8.44    28.23    22.57    74.90    41.32P    0.04R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     17   27   +8      -0.18    48.68     2.26    73.66     8.37    18.15     6.93    48.67    18.32P    0.29R    0.00  
Woking             17   27   +6       4.74    77.51     7.70    65.65     8.80     4.22     1.40    16.97     4.41P    3.77R    0.14  
Harrogate_Town     17   26   +3       0.76    55.30     0.13    69.72     8.45     8.74     2.89    29.84     9.05P    1.08R    0.02  
Torquay            17   25   +3       3.47    71.37     6.16    61.79     8.87    -2.08     0.56     8.80     2.05P    9.12R    0.64  
Barnet             17   25   +3       0.13    51.16     0.60    68.64     8.20     8.76     2.03    25.07     7.48P    1.20R    0.02  
Boreham_Wood       17   24   +6       0.09    51.21     5.11    64.76     8.31     7.41     0.83    13.62     3.60P    3.55R    0.12  
Dag_&_Red          16   24   +1       1.99    63.82     0.84    66.01     8.50     2.36     1.06    16.66     4.33P    3.28R    0.11  
Eastleigh          17   24   -1       1.50    60.43     0.34    62.34     8.32    -3.19     0.37     8.09     1.79P    6.87R    0.32  
Dover_Athletic     16   24   -2       1.94    63.48    -2.15    64.28     8.53    -3.61     0.82    12.17     3.02P    4.89R    0.19  
Hartlepool         17   23   -1       0.16    51.65    -0.22    60.01     8.16    -5.44     0.18     4.77     1.03P   10.83R    0.62  
Maidenhead         17   21   +2       0.05    51.00     5.53    55.94     8.15    -5.29     0.04     1.89     0.38P   22.16R    1.74  
Stockport          16   21   -8       4.41    78.66     0.39    51.88     8.58   -23.69     0.03     0.83     0.14P   44.04R    6.65  
Aldershot          17   18   -6      -1.73    39.49    -0.96    50.65     7.87   -16.19     0.01     0.30     0.07P   47.17R    6.63  
Sutton_United      16   16   -4      -4.51    21.30    -1.92    54.43     8.44    -7.93     0.05     1.42     0.32P   29.30R    3.15  
Wrexham            16   16   -5      -6.59    12.18    -6.07    58.66     8.45    -2.60     0.14     3.82     1.06P   14.64R    1.10  
AFC_Fylde          16   16  -12      -6.75    12.33   -12.96    58.12     8.69   -10.82     0.11     3.48     0.89P   17.80R    1.50  
Chesterfield       16   15   -7      -7.42    10.22    -7.65    55.23     8.56    -8.63     0.07     1.74     0.49P   26.50R    3.14  
Chorley            17   13  -15      -2.42    34.76    -3.08    39.01     7.81   -35.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.26R   59.16  
Ebbsfleet_United   17   10  -15     -10.57     3.14   -10.62    47.62     8.30   -18.58     0.00     0.15     0.02P   61.20R   14.74