Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 12 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2019, Arsenal 1 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         8   24  +14       5.97    97.16     1.60    89.54     7.54    56.22    59.69    94.47    98.65    99.61    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          8   16  +18      -3.81    10.97     0.88    86.09     7.05    72.51    38.60    90.11    97.45    99.17    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   15   +2       1.71    66.60    -1.68    65.69     8.57    16.89     0.46     4.06    24.61    45.56    75.75     0.04R    0.00  
Leicester         8   14   +7       3.00    79.15     7.25    60.72     8.54    14.99     0.09     1.22    10.24    24.00    55.74     0.20R    0.02  
Chelsea           8   14   +4      -0.33    46.08    -1.32    67.25     8.37    23.29     0.65     5.34    32.11    53.86    82.07     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   14   +0       3.11    79.78     0.13    51.15     8.22    -7.49     0.00     0.07     1.01     3.27    14.23     2.85R    0.26  
Burnley           8   12   +2       2.06    71.33     3.72    46.18     8.09   -10.21     0.00     0.01     0.22     0.91     5.50     8.59R    1.17  
West_Ham          8   12   +0       1.27    63.20     0.68    49.04     8.31    -8.48     0.00     0.03     0.69     2.35    10.34     4.94R    0.58  
Tottenham         8   11   +2      -3.23    18.84    -3.00    66.05     8.36    24.20     0.47     3.98    26.92    48.50    78.93     0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth       8   11   +0       1.50    66.41     3.21    47.73     8.44    -9.90     0.00     0.03     0.42     1.65     8.13     7.18R    1.12  
Wolverhampton     8   10   +0       0.35    54.63     2.48    49.80     8.34    -2.77     0.00     0.05     0.73     2.60    11.68     4.20R    0.48  
Man_Utd           8    9   +1      -4.23    14.59    -2.32    58.64     8.29    13.71     0.03     0.60     6.52    16.76    45.79     0.31R    0.03  
Sheff_Utd         8    9   +0       0.35    55.57     3.67    42.15     8.30   -13.46     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.33     2.34    20.35R    4.11  
Brighton          8    9   -2       0.76    59.69     2.92    40.47     7.85   -17.14     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.15     1.20    25.28R    5.28  
Aston_Villa       8    8   +1      -1.05    41.05     4.70    39.19     8.36   -18.33     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.14     1.12    32.20R    8.88  
Newcastle         8    8   -8      -0.76    43.16    -4.29    42.66     8.02   -18.20     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.30     2.07    18.03R    3.23  
Southampton       8    7   -7      -0.76    43.72    -1.68    39.74     8.08   -22.79     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.97    29.62R    7.76  
Everton           8    7   -7      -3.75    16.55    -6.44    44.49     8.27   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.70     4.00    13.01R    2.40  
Norwich           8    6  -11      -0.35    47.91    -0.81    33.38     8.15   -39.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.19    62.04R   27.95  
Watford           8    3  -16      -4.88     7.52    -9.71    31.38     7.86   -39.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08    71.12R   36.76  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bristol_City 1 0 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       11   22   +8       2.89    72.87     1.69    83.65     9.63    29.25    33.45    51.70    85.36    61.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +7       6.49    91.71     6.34    74.53     9.60    13.71     7.19    16.85    54.31    25.28P    0.18R    0.01  
Preston         11   21  +11       3.43    76.22     7.23    75.59     9.88    20.89    10.39    21.54    59.42    30.90P    0.12R    0.01  
Swansea         11   21   +7       3.73    78.62     3.72    75.35     9.59    16.41     8.95    19.24    57.96    29.06P    0.14R    0.01  
Leeds_United    11   20   +8       2.45    69.47     4.39    77.67     9.52    22.39    13.03    26.65    67.81    38.17P    0.03R    0.01  
Bristol_City    11   20   +5       3.96    80.23     3.60    72.76     9.58    12.05     5.53    12.96    47.05    20.77P    0.29R    0.03  
Fulham          11   19  +10       0.36    52.60     4.66    75.65    10.15    23.20    11.09    22.58    59.81    33.25P    0.17R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       11   19   +7       2.17    67.91     4.38    68.97     9.51     9.96     2.64     6.77    32.43    12.62P    0.71R    0.07  
QPR             11   19   -1       5.55    88.12     1.77    60.15     9.44   -12.57     0.29     0.91     8.19     2.07P    6.97R    1.12  
Charlton        11   18   +3       3.58    78.10     3.92    62.42     9.84    -2.19     0.72     2.02    13.43     4.23P    4.50R    0.65  
Cardiff         11   16   +0      -0.40    46.87    -1.90    67.63     9.97     5.42     2.27     5.96    28.28    11.72P    1.52R    0.20  
Birmingham      11   16   -3       2.62    72.07    -0.60    59.79     9.46    -9.21     0.30     0.95     7.67     2.14P    7.33R    1.29  
Derby           11   15   +0      -1.85    34.92    -2.64    68.66     9.56     8.33     2.38     6.30    31.07    12.92P    0.93R    0.08  
Blackburn       11   14   -2      -0.46    46.90    -0.81    59.10     9.51    -6.58     0.23     0.78     7.13     2.08P    8.42R    1.70  
Millwall        11   14   -4       1.35    62.96    -0.48    56.34     9.13   -11.74     0.08     0.28     3.50     0.92P   12.93R    2.52  
Hull            11   13   -2      -2.13    33.11    -1.95    58.35     9.65    -6.88     0.24     0.77     6.61     2.04P    9.86R    1.90  
Brentford       11   12   +0      -3.93    20.39    -1.31    64.08     9.59     6.08     0.91     2.62    17.26     6.45P    2.87R    0.34  
Luton           11   11   -5      -2.32    32.42    -1.95    52.80     9.95   -15.59     0.04     0.21     2.48     0.70P   25.09R    7.12  
Wigan           11   11   -7      -1.93    34.37    -3.88    53.29     9.19   -15.05     0.04     0.14     1.85     0.47P   21.45R    5.15  
Middlesbrough   11   10   -5      -6.01     9.43    -6.48    59.17     9.28    -2.74     0.21     0.70     6.64     2.27P    7.45R    1.32  
Huddersfield    11    8   -6      -5.00    14.01    -2.92    48.30     9.55   -16.84     0.01     0.04     0.73     0.20P   40.34R   13.92  
Reading         11    8   -6      -3.58    21.63    -0.58    47.85     9.15   -18.33     0.00     0.02     0.48     0.10P   42.15R   14.19  
Barnsley        11    6  -14      -5.33    11.66    -8.20    43.32     9.53   -30.78     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.03P   62.35R   32.38  
Stoke           11    5  -11      -7.98     3.12    -8.03    47.36     9.25   -19.16     0.00     0.02     0.40     0.10P   44.17R   15.97  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2019, Blackpool 1 2 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              11   27  +16       7.16    94.56     8.79    87.85     9.13    39.86    56.74    75.44    95.86    81.55P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              12   23   +8       5.16    85.38     5.97    64.25     8.89     3.35     0.73     2.86    21.30     5.88P    1.04R    0.00  
Peterborough         12   21  +13       0.17    50.84     5.89    75.57     8.92    30.36     8.89    24.48    69.53    36.81P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       12   21   +3       3.45    76.10     1.25    64.31     8.75     2.14     0.65     2.61    20.76     6.23P    0.89R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       11   20   +6       2.69    71.74     2.58    70.22     9.14    13.42     3.05     9.75    44.61    17.69P    0.21R    0.00  
Blackpool            13   20   +2       1.16    59.15     0.49    63.05     8.35     2.90     0.39     1.53    16.12     4.50P    1.11R    0.00  
Coventry             11   20   +2       4.65    84.56     1.68    65.16     8.98     1.90     0.96     3.28    23.58     7.10P    1.02R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           13   19  +10      -0.73    44.18     7.13    67.30     8.81    18.90     1.59     5.38    33.96    12.13P    0.42R    0.00  
Sunderland           11   19   +2      -0.13    48.26    -4.25    77.26     9.11    22.58    11.80    29.91    73.93    43.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham            11   18   +8      -0.34    46.87     2.88    73.39     9.71    23.81     7.44    19.20    59.55    30.64P    0.13R    0.00  
Doncaster            11   16   +0      -0.23    48.25    -1.66    66.87     9.16     8.56     1.40     5.04    30.98    11.11P    0.68R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         13   16   -2       0.19    52.37     1.33    55.28     8.87    -7.21     0.06     0.24     4.02     0.96P    9.36R    0.15  
Shrewsbury           11   16   -3       1.24    61.27    -2.65    59.55     8.84    -5.37     0.17     0.75     9.44     2.43P    3.40R    0.03  
Burton_Albion        10   15   +5       0.10    51.26     3.26    70.45     9.32    18.51     3.44    10.83    47.17    20.20P    0.25R    0.00  
Gillingham           12   14   +3      -2.38    31.49     3.16    57.94     9.05     2.50     0.14     0.64     7.82     2.20P    5.62R    0.05  
Portsmouth           10   13   +1      -3.29    22.54    -3.00    68.57     9.46    14.66     2.54     8.01    39.07    16.51P    0.53R    0.00  
Rochdale             12   13   -7      -0.61    46.12    -1.93    47.70     8.56   -23.24     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.10P   32.86R    1.13  
MK_Dons              12   12   -7      -1.81    36.33    -2.77    48.06     8.91   -19.93     0.00     0.02     0.77     0.14P   31.69R    1.09  
Accrington_Stanley   12   11   -6      -2.96    27.86    -2.01    47.84     8.59   -18.03     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.10P   31.12R    0.98  
AFC_Wimbledon        13    9   -6      -5.51    12.84    -0.46    44.93     8.36   -16.34     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.04P   43.25R    1.85  
Tranmere             11    9   -6      -1.83    35.41     1.64    42.79     9.11   -25.41     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P   54.98R    3.77  
Southend             12    4  -19      -9.01     1.90   -12.99    35.82     8.43   -41.24     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   83.36R   14.65  
Bolton               10   -8  -23      -4.22    13.81   -14.31    23.61     8.71   -46.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.04R   76.28  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2019, Carlisle 2 4 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Crewe            13   26   +7       7.06    91.22     5.35    74.87     9.20    12.36    10.82    32.75    66.92    40.08P    0.05R    0.01  
Exeter           13   26   +7       4.82    82.54     2.07    77.83     9.01    16.83    17.82    45.31    77.80    53.98P    0.01R    0.00  
Bradford         13   24   +7       2.08    65.05     0.98    80.35     9.30    23.61    27.80    57.49    84.84    65.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     13   24   +7       4.24    79.82     4.08    74.37     9.09    14.73    10.08    31.22    65.34    39.76P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County   12   23   +6       6.33    90.17     5.42    72.44     9.13    10.50     6.67    23.35    56.64    30.51P    0.11R    0.03  
Cheltenham       12   22  +10       4.32    80.46     8.25    70.54     9.30    12.95     5.28    19.28    49.58    25.99P    0.17R    0.04  
Swindon          13   21   +4       1.58    62.18     1.58    70.73     9.24    10.78     5.15    19.25    50.24    26.82P    0.22R    0.05  
Colchester       13   19   +4      -1.07    41.98     0.70    69.08     9.06    11.29     3.61    14.86    43.48    22.39P    0.28R    0.07  
Crawley_Town     13   19   +1       2.65    70.08     3.34    60.41     9.03    -5.04     0.44     2.58    13.01     4.48P    3.33R    1.00  
Grimsby          13   18   +4       1.31    60.93     5.38    60.64     8.97     0.57     0.43     2.78    13.96     5.05P    2.75R    0.73  
Plymouth         13   17   +2      -3.60    24.96    -2.22    71.12     9.45    15.33     6.17    21.59    52.90    31.01P    0.23R    0.05  
Macclesfield     13   17   +0       2.23    68.23     4.36    51.93     8.55   -15.23     0.02     0.21     2.02     0.48P   16.79R    6.43  
Port_Vale        13   17   -2       1.03    59.09     0.44    56.60     8.79    -9.99     0.13     0.88     5.76     1.84P    7.15R    2.33  
Salford_City     13   17   -4       3.20    74.53     2.46    48.85     8.79   -25.24     0.03     0.11     1.07     0.23P   29.80R   13.20  
Mansfield        13   16   +2      -5.61    13.74    -3.65    68.81     9.15    13.29     3.47    14.64    42.93    23.50P    0.35R    0.07  
Cambridge_Utd    13   16   +2       0.13    52.06     4.59    57.83     8.91    -2.42     0.15     1.21     8.31     2.64P    5.47R    1.78  
Leyton_Orient    13   16   -3       1.16    60.09     1.65    52.34     9.12   -16.93     0.05     0.37     2.80     0.82P   17.65R    7.17  
Northampton      13   15   -2      -3.07    27.82    -2.38    60.76     9.13    -1.14     0.46     2.85    14.38     5.62P    3.15R    0.95  
Walsall          13   15   -8      -2.99    28.78    -8.43    61.31     9.28    -5.98     0.56     3.25    15.37     6.36P    3.05R    0.91  
Carlisle         13   14   -8      -2.58    31.47    -6.01    58.37     9.19    -9.50     0.24     1.60     9.11     3.20P    5.93R    2.05  
Oldham           13   11   -9      -5.67    13.04    -7.20    57.66     9.19    -6.89     0.16     1.31     8.03     2.96P    6.58R    2.15  
Scunthorpe       13   10   -5      -9.59     3.28    -7.66    59.80     9.70     1.85     0.47     2.99    14.24     6.34P    4.79R    1.61  
Stevenage        13    8   -9      -8.47     3.89    -7.16    49.23     8.91   -14.65     0.01     0.09     1.16     0.34P   26.17R   12.22  
Morecambe        13    7  -13      -6.34     8.95    -5.95    40.69     8.64   -31.08     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   65.94R   47.15  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2019, Aldershot 0 3 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax            17   32  +10       7.92    90.89     8.67    74.18     8.21    13.75     7.44    49.75    16.14P    0.20R    0.00  
Bromley            17   32   +6       7.02    87.42     3.62    75.24     8.48    10.98     9.47    54.13    18.33P    0.19R    0.00  
Yeovil             17   31  +10       0.92    55.41    -0.13    83.12     8.42    28.48    38.63    85.67    54.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Barrow             16   28   +9       4.07    75.67     6.14    71.69     8.57    12.73     4.90    38.43    12.28P    0.60R    0.01  
Notts_County       17   27   +9      -3.22    29.48    -1.46    79.21     8.44    27.74    21.57    73.74    40.21P    0.05R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     17   27   +8      -0.17    48.92     2.25    73.58     8.44    18.05     7.21    48.35    18.43P    0.32R    0.01  
Woking             17   27   +6       4.39    75.80     7.14    66.24     8.80     5.09     1.62    18.63     4.92P    3.26R    0.11  
Harrogate_Town     17   26   +3       0.82    55.46     0.24    69.58     8.44     8.54     2.86    29.20     8.94P    1.09R    0.02  
Torquay            17   25   +3       3.23    70.02     5.82    62.12     8.81    -1.60     0.64     9.25     2.24P    8.25R    0.56  
Barnet             17   25   +3       0.31    52.43     0.84    68.47     8.29     8.49     1.98    24.95     7.41P    1.28R    0.03  
Boreham_Wood       17   24   +6       0.06    51.01     5.08    64.79     8.27     7.52     0.86    13.45     3.56P    3.57R    0.12  
Dag_&_Red          16   24   +1       2.02    64.08     0.86    65.91     8.53     2.23     1.15    16.39     4.27P    3.33R    0.12  
Eastleigh          17   24   -1       1.56    60.70     0.44    62.20     8.22    -3.40     0.33     7.54     1.75P    7.07R    0.27  
Dover_Athletic     16   24   -2       1.97    63.56    -2.06    64.11     8.59    -3.88     0.79    12.07     3.04P    5.35R    0.19  
Hartlepool         17   23   -1       0.22    52.03    -0.16    59.99     8.20    -5.44     0.16     4.83     1.08P   10.97R    0.62  
Maidenhead         17   21   +2       0.05    51.21     5.51    55.83     8.13    -5.42     0.03     1.79     0.32P   23.05R    1.76  
Stockport          16   21   -8       4.51    79.04     0.56    51.61     8.56   -24.13     0.02     0.70     0.12P   45.30R    7.08  
Aldershot          17   18   -6      -1.75    39.24    -1.00    50.76     7.92   -16.01     0.01     0.32     0.06P   46.76R    6.47  
Sutton_United      16   16   -4      -4.75    20.53    -2.30    54.71     8.42    -7.46     0.03     1.42     0.33P   28.12R    2.90  
Wrexham            16   16   -5      -6.70    11.93    -6.23    58.96     8.44    -2.16     0.15     4.00     1.13P   13.62R    1.02  
AFC_Fylde          16   16  -12      -6.79    12.18   -13.04    58.27     8.67   -10.55     0.12     3.67     0.92P   17.36R    1.37  
Chesterfield       16   15   -7      -7.27    10.68    -7.42    55.10     8.47    -8.82     0.04     1.61     0.38P   26.86R    3.09  
Chorley            17   13  -15      -2.37    35.07    -3.02    38.95     7.80   -35.90     0.00     0.00     0.00P   91.41R   59.02  
Ebbsfleet_United   17   10  -15     -10.43     3.26   -10.36    47.48     8.27   -18.82     0.00     0.12     0.03P   61.96R   15.20