Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 11 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2019, Arsenal 1 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         8   24  +14       5.99    97.18     1.57    89.59     7.46    56.26    60.30    94.51    98.77    99.67    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          8   16  +18      -3.82    11.20     0.89    86.03     6.98    72.28    38.05    90.44    97.55    99.18    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   15   +2       1.70    66.46    -1.71    65.71     8.58    17.00     0.43     3.90    24.45    45.48    76.01     0.04R    0.00  
Leicester         8   14   +7       2.99    78.88     7.23    60.89     8.44    15.23     0.10     1.06    10.55    24.05    56.62     0.17R    0.01  
Chelsea           8   14   +4      -0.39    45.68    -1.40    67.39     8.30    23.52     0.56     5.35    32.35    54.56    82.64     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   14   +0       3.14    79.74     0.17    51.03     8.22    -7.66     0.00     0.06     1.02     3.17    13.87     2.84R    0.30  
Burnley           8   12   +2       2.11    71.75     3.80    46.10     8.05   -10.34     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.95     5.19     8.85R    1.19  
West_Ham          8   12   +0       1.26    62.90     0.65    49.03     8.32    -8.42     0.00     0.03     0.64     2.32    10.17     4.85R    0.60  
Tottenham         8   11   +2      -3.23    18.86    -3.00    65.98     8.41    24.12     0.48     3.92    26.29    48.04    78.25     0.03R    0.00  
Bournemouth       8   11   +0       1.46    65.95     3.15    48.00     8.44    -9.40     0.00     0.04     0.52     1.82     8.48     6.79R    0.98  
Wolverhampton     8   10   +0       0.38    54.93     2.57    49.57     8.33    -3.13     0.00     0.02     0.67     2.43    11.15     4.37R    0.55  
Man_Utd           8    9   +1      -4.21    14.53    -2.29    58.63     8.37    13.70     0.06     0.65     6.51    16.53    45.81     0.36R    0.04  
Sheff_Utd         8    9   +0       0.40    55.85     3.76    42.02     8.24   -13.71     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.36     2.13    20.32R    4.14  
Brighton          8    9   -2       0.82    60.59     2.97    40.34     7.83   -17.32     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     1.17    25.85R    5.42  
Aston_Villa       8    8   +1      -1.11    40.21     4.60    39.34     8.36   -18.08     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.20     1.31    31.49R    8.37  
Newcastle         8    8   -8      -0.79    42.78    -4.35    42.71     8.03   -18.13     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.28     2.09    17.93R    3.26  
Southampton       8    7   -7      -0.80    43.16    -1.74    39.87     8.08   -22.52     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.15     1.08    29.30R    7.21  
Everton           8    7   -7      -3.79    16.07    -6.47    44.53     8.26   -13.89     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.68     3.83    13.12R    2.16  
Norwich           8    6  -11      -0.34    47.98    -0.75    33.30     8.24   -39.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.23    62.42R   28.50  
Watford           8    3  -16      -4.86     7.75    -9.64    31.31     7.88   -39.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    71.24R   37.29  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bristol_City 1 0 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       11   22   +8       2.87    72.41     1.65    83.70     9.71    29.28    33.35    51.76    85.21    61.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +7       6.49    91.78     6.33    74.62     9.58    13.89     7.22    16.80    54.77    25.19P    0.16R    0.02  
Preston         11   21  +11       3.49    77.01     7.28    75.55     9.83    20.80    10.21    21.27    59.32    30.50P    0.14R    0.01  
Swansea         11   21   +7       3.70    78.72     3.69    75.37     9.58    16.44     8.87    19.18    58.05    28.97P    0.12R    0.01  
Leeds_United    11   20   +8       2.43    69.55     4.39    77.72     9.52    22.48    13.16    27.12    68.14    39.04P    0.06R    0.01  
Bristol_City    11   20   +5       3.93    79.71     3.51    72.76     9.70    12.01     5.71    12.99    46.99    20.80P    0.35R    0.03  
Fulham          11   19  +10       0.28    51.69     4.56    75.77    10.18    23.34    11.36    22.87    60.01    33.68P    0.21R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed       11   19   +7       2.14    67.47     4.31    69.02     9.61    10.04     2.72     7.00    32.40    12.84P    0.72R    0.06  
QPR             11   19   -1       5.57    88.22     1.82    60.12     9.51   -12.71     0.29     0.92     8.33     2.08P    7.13R    1.23  
Charlton        11   18   +3       3.58    77.63     3.89    62.59     9.78    -1.97     0.66     1.90    13.60     4.23P    4.37R    0.62  
Cardiff         11   16   +0      -0.42    46.72    -1.93    67.77    10.05     5.62     2.38     6.15    28.87    11.86P    1.48R    0.17  
Birmingham      11   16   -3       2.54    71.72    -0.71    60.07     9.36    -8.79     0.27     0.81     7.73     2.01P    6.98R    1.10  
Derby           11   15   +0      -1.79    35.82    -2.54    68.35     9.64     7.92     2.20     6.02    30.16    12.40P    1.08R    0.10  
Blackburn       11   14   -2      -0.47    46.81    -0.79    59.05     9.51    -6.62     0.17     0.71     7.07     2.05P    8.30R    1.62  
Millwall        11   14   -4       1.36    62.98    -0.50    56.45     9.11   -11.52     0.06     0.23     3.49     0.82P   12.53R    2.43  
Hull            11   13   -2      -2.11    33.24    -1.89    58.31     9.69    -6.94     0.24     0.74     6.54     1.91P    9.79R    1.87  
Brentford       11   12   +0      -3.93    20.17    -1.31    64.07     9.59     6.00     0.80     2.44    16.93     6.24P    2.95R    0.41  
Luton           11   11   -5      -2.40    31.50    -2.06    53.12     9.91   -15.07     0.07     0.21     2.69     0.77P   23.47R    6.40  
Wigan           11   11   -7      -1.92    34.53    -3.87    53.21     9.18   -15.20     0.03     0.13     1.67     0.43P   21.69R    5.15  
Middlesbrough   11   10   -5      -5.92     9.88    -6.35    58.96     9.27    -3.00     0.23     0.67     6.46     2.09P    7.46R    1.30  
Huddersfield    11    8   -6      -4.91    14.12    -2.78    47.88     9.42   -17.44     0.00     0.03     0.62     0.16P   41.75R   14.60  
Reading         11    8   -6      -3.54    21.88    -0.50    47.67     9.19   -18.59     0.00     0.02     0.43     0.09P   42.85R   15.16  
Barnsley        11    6  -14      -5.38    11.23    -8.26    43.41     9.49   -30.65     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.04P   61.99R   31.51  
Stoke           11    5  -11      -7.94     3.10    -7.94    47.24     9.22   -19.31     0.01     0.02     0.34     0.10P   44.41R   16.17  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 7 October 2019, Bolton 0 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              11   27  +16       7.19    94.39     8.84    87.73     9.31    39.67    57.11    75.28    95.53    81.31P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              12   23   +8       5.17    85.09     5.99    64.27     8.82     3.41     0.74     2.81    21.35     5.94P    0.94R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       11   20   +6       2.66    71.40     2.55    70.39     9.21    13.70     3.47    10.70    46.17    18.74P    0.20R    0.00  
Blackpool            12   20   +3       2.40    68.88     1.30    64.90     8.71     4.60     0.89     3.21    22.98     7.43P    0.75R    0.00  
Coventry             11   20   +2       4.69    84.69     1.71    65.19     8.98     1.88     0.88     3.28    24.00     6.99P    0.88R    0.01  
Sunderland           11   19   +2      -0.21    47.65    -4.39    77.10     9.06    22.24    11.63    30.04    73.57    43.34P    0.03R    0.00  
Peterborough         11   18  +11      -0.48    45.59     5.45    73.88     9.29    28.21     7.17    20.03    62.56    31.47P    0.07R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       11   18   +2       2.27    68.95     0.91    62.82     8.98     1.28     0.51     2.01    17.13     5.10P    1.54R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           12   16   +7      -1.65    37.34     5.27    64.52     9.08    13.92     0.91     3.26    23.82     7.87P    1.14R    0.00  
Doncaster            10   16   +3       0.47    54.13     0.30    69.39     9.45    13.31     2.86     9.21    42.12    17.42P    0.43R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         12   16   +0       0.84    57.45     2.11    56.45     9.18    -5.81     0.11     0.43     5.80     1.44P    7.93R    0.12  
Shrewsbury           11   16   -3       1.27    61.56    -2.59    59.51     8.85    -5.43     0.16     0.81     9.42     2.43P    3.48R    0.04  
Rotherham            10   15   +7      -1.83    33.91     2.14    71.11    10.06    21.76     5.36    14.49    50.53    24.88P    0.33R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        10   15   +5       0.06    50.89     3.21    70.46     9.39    18.47     3.63    11.36    47.00    20.54P    0.27R    0.01  
Gillingham           11   13   +3      -2.37    31.01     2.64    57.67     9.21     1.31     0.16     0.66     7.89     2.21P    6.15R    0.07  
Portsmouth            9   12   +1      -2.53    27.09    -2.47    70.42     9.82    17.15     4.38    12.31    47.18    22.28P    0.38R    0.00  
MK_Dons              11   12   -6      -0.97    42.89    -2.49    49.22     9.26   -19.53     0.01     0.05     1.24     0.27P   27.64R    1.08  
Accrington_Stanley   11   11   -5      -1.91    35.01    -1.52    49.38     8.80   -16.80     0.01     0.03     0.97     0.19P   25.48R    0.76  
Rochdale             11   10   -8      -1.93    34.94    -2.46    46.14     8.89   -24.27     0.00     0.02     0.40     0.07P   39.78R    1.98  
Tranmere             11    9   -6      -1.90    34.66     1.53    42.73     9.12   -25.58     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.04P   54.79R    4.22  
AFC_Wimbledon        12    6   -9      -6.78     6.01    -2.89    41.62     8.50   -21.95     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   59.14R    4.50  
Southend             11    4  -16      -8.11     2.80   -10.86    39.13     8.80   -34.60     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P   70.76R    9.04  
Bolton               10   -8  -23      -4.25    13.90   -14.28    23.61     8.79   -46.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.87R   78.19  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bradford 2 1 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Forest_Green     12   24   +8       5.34    86.40     4.70    76.46     9.31    16.83    15.14    39.93    72.12    48.04P    0.02R    0.00  
Exeter           12   23   +6       3.52    76.19     1.56    75.74     9.29    15.24    13.48    36.76    69.57    45.29P    0.02R    0.01  
Newport_County   12   23   +6       6.37    90.54     5.49    72.42     9.16    10.59     6.77    23.61    56.39    30.97P    0.06R    0.02  
Crewe            12   23   +5       5.87    88.19     3.91    72.01     9.42     8.64     6.93    22.85    54.16    29.38P    0.12R    0.02  
Cheltenham       12   22  +10       4.26    80.19     8.11    70.52     9.33    12.99     5.46    19.38    48.77    25.65P    0.17R    0.03  
Bradford         12   21   +6       1.17    58.74     1.04    79.36     9.68    23.55    25.85    53.27    80.92    61.58P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon          12   20   +4       1.98    65.64     1.62    71.09     9.49    10.77     6.02    20.90    50.88    28.32P    0.10R    0.02  
Colchester       12   19   +5       0.30    52.42     1.71    71.56     9.33    13.95     6.55    22.62    53.48    30.84P    0.10R    0.02  
Grimsby          12   18   +5       2.43    69.83     6.03    62.32     9.19     2.16     0.72     4.28    18.18     7.10P    1.63R    0.46  
Port_Vale        12   17   -1       2.18    68.14     1.11    58.38     9.09    -8.16     0.27     1.61     8.74     2.99P    4.18R    1.32  
Cambridge_Utd    12   16   +3       1.43    62.74     5.47    59.73     9.11    -0.57     0.34     2.29    11.91     4.28P    2.90R    0.90  
Plymouth         12   16   +2      -3.19    26.39    -2.17    71.40     9.78    15.25     7.20    23.37    53.01    32.60P    0.22R    0.06  
Crawley_Town     12   16   +0       1.07    59.38     2.35    57.75     9.18    -7.39     0.25     1.47     8.14     2.80P    4.95R    1.66  
Northampton      12   15   +1      -2.46    31.31    -0.51    63.25     9.37     3.62     1.06     5.44    21.41     9.30P    1.41R    0.38  
Walsall          12   15   -6      -1.92    35.42    -6.89    64.05     9.67    -1.97     1.28     6.56    23.52    11.09P    1.47R    0.44  
Macclesfield     12   14   -1       0.76    57.60     3.57    49.72     8.70   -16.77     0.01     0.12     1.23     0.31P   20.36R    8.50  
Salford_City     12   14   -5       1.74    65.45     1.72    46.23     9.01   -27.91     0.01     0.05     0.67     0.17P   36.46R   18.29  
Carlisle         12   14   -6      -1.68    37.54    -4.85    60.84     9.47    -5.68     0.50     3.17    14.58     5.81P    2.98R    0.94  
Mansfield        12   13   -3      -5.92    11.24    -6.69    64.71     9.21     4.66     1.33     6.95    25.75    12.40P    0.86R    0.26  
Leyton_Orient    12   13   -5      -0.20    49.70    -0.04    48.93     9.26   -21.38     0.01     0.17     1.36     0.34P   25.38R   11.96  
Oldham           12   11   -4      -5.49    13.17    -4.08    61.13     9.39     1.37     0.54     3.45    15.76     6.74P    2.59R    0.83  
Scunthorpe       12    7   -8     -10.36     1.69    -9.32    56.87     9.87    -3.09     0.28     1.68     8.65     3.77P    7.11R    2.72  
Morecambe        12    7  -12      -5.52    11.38    -5.96    41.63     8.75   -30.49     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   56.66R   36.26  
Stevenage        12    5  -10      -9.89     1.40    -7.88    47.08     9.08   -16.21     0.01     0.06     0.67     0.23P   30.24R   14.91  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 9 October 2019, Stockport 2 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax            16   32  +12       8.85    94.08    10.07    76.64     8.44    17.35    10.30    60.94    21.35P    0.08R    0.00  
Bromley            16   32   +7       8.12    91.42     4.20    76.37     8.74    11.63    10.32    58.43    19.99P    0.16R    0.00  
Yeovil             16   31  +11       2.27    64.52     0.73    85.84     8.68    31.68    48.46    90.63    62.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Barrow             16   28   +9       4.12    75.71     6.18    71.73     8.59    12.83     4.05    38.60    11.40P    0.57R    0.01  
Woking             16   26   +6       4.64    78.03     6.97    66.15     8.96     4.51     1.30    18.56     4.86P    3.64R    0.12  
Torquay            16   25   +5       3.76    72.98     6.44    63.35     9.12     0.07     0.80    12.38     2.94P    7.19R    0.44  
Notts_County       16   24   +7      -3.89    25.20    -2.04    77.64     8.74    25.99    14.00    66.94    32.58P    0.10R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     16   24   +7      -1.44    40.01     1.76    72.26     8.66    17.50     4.72    42.20    14.99P    0.55R    0.00  
Barnet             16   24   +3       0.79    55.63     1.03    69.46     8.46     9.43     2.15    28.62     8.39P    1.19R    0.03  
Dag_&_Red          16   24   +1       2.00    63.70     0.84    65.88     8.45     2.18     0.85    16.09     4.19P    3.16R    0.10  
Dover_Athletic     16   24   -2       1.94    63.29    -2.19    64.06     8.48    -3.98     0.58    11.48     2.61P    5.08R    0.22  
Harrogate_Town     16   23   +2      -0.94    43.61    -1.02    66.99     8.65     6.06     1.34    20.34     5.73P    2.57R    0.10  
Eastleigh          16   23   -1       2.20    65.28     0.88    63.49     8.54    -2.06     0.47    10.69     2.43P    5.77R    0.29  
Boreham_Wood       16   21   +4      -1.20    42.33     3.66    62.07     8.47     3.90     0.33     8.44     2.13P    7.29R    0.34  
Stockport          16   21   -8       4.38    78.40     0.44    51.60     8.50   -24.19     0.02     0.71     0.11P   45.12R    6.90  
Hartlepool         16   20   -4      -0.70    45.88    -2.06    57.22     8.40   -10.19     0.05     2.48     0.48P   19.96R    1.68  
Maidenhead         16   18   +1      -1.40    41.18     4.79    53.53     8.23    -7.47     0.02     0.97     0.17P   32.87R    3.70  
Aldershot          16   18   -3      -0.98    44.15     1.10    53.29     8.17   -11.33     0.01     0.84     0.16P   34.28R    3.89  
Sutton_United      16   16   -4      -4.65    20.87    -2.13    54.34     8.42    -8.08     0.02     1.39     0.39P   29.68R    3.05  
Wrexham            16   16   -5      -6.69    12.03    -6.20    58.87     8.40    -2.29     0.09     3.92     1.06P   13.84R    1.21  
AFC_Fylde          16   16  -12      -6.67    12.81   -12.90    58.29     8.66   -10.50     0.09     3.55     0.88P   17.44R    1.48  
Chesterfield       16   15   -7      -7.23    10.89    -7.33    54.85     8.48    -9.20     0.03     1.48     0.38P   27.82R    3.36  
Chorley            16   12  -15      -2.44    34.08    -3.38    38.45     8.06   -37.74     0.00     0.00     0.00P   91.44R   63.05  
Ebbsfleet_United   16   10  -14      -9.33     4.32    -9.85    49.94     8.49   -16.09     0.00     0.32     0.06P   50.20R   10.02