Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 10 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2019, Arsenal 1 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         8   24  +14       5.93    97.17     1.46    89.78     7.46    56.72    60.92    94.83    98.83    99.67    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          8   16  +18      -3.83    10.93     0.90    86.03     7.01    72.34    37.39    90.05    97.32    99.23    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   15   +2       1.67    66.30    -1.73    65.72     8.54    17.00     0.40     3.93    24.29    44.99    75.68     0.02R    0.00  
Leicester         8   14   +7       2.96    78.77     7.22    60.91     8.55    15.29     0.13     1.31    10.70    24.62    56.26     0.19R    0.01  
Chelsea           8   14   +4      -0.32    46.37    -1.32    67.39     8.36    23.50     0.67     5.24    32.39    54.18    82.50     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   14   +0       3.14    79.64     0.17    50.99     8.23    -7.79     0.00     0.07     0.97     3.24    13.89     2.92R    0.31  
Burnley           8   12   +2       2.13    71.66     3.82    46.15     8.11   -10.31     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.97     5.47     8.79R    1.17  
West_Ham          8   12   +0       1.26    62.90     0.66    48.97     8.30    -8.59     0.00     0.02     0.64     2.23    10.20     4.95R    0.59  
Tottenham         8   11   +2      -3.27    18.44    -3.07    66.13     8.39    24.34     0.45     3.92    26.71    48.49    78.79     0.04R    0.00  
Bournemouth       8   11   +0       1.54    66.64     3.24    47.72     8.46    -9.93     0.00     0.02     0.50     1.76     8.05     7.07R    1.08  
Wolverhampton     8   10   +0       0.37    55.02     2.56    49.61     8.31    -3.12     0.00     0.02     0.66     2.36    11.12     4.35R    0.49  
Man_Utd           8    9   +1      -4.20    14.72    -2.29    58.62     8.33    13.66     0.04     0.55     6.36    16.55    46.18     0.37R    0.03  
Sheff_Utd         8    9   +0       0.41    55.91     3.81    41.86     8.27   -13.94     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.32     2.18    21.08R    4.36  
Brighton          8    9   -2       0.81    60.55     2.96    40.39     7.85   -17.20     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.13     1.15    25.57R    5.49  
Aston_Villa       8    8   +1      -1.06    40.53     4.68    39.22     8.36   -18.27     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.14     1.19    31.81R    8.44  
Newcastle         8    8   -8      -0.75    43.45    -4.28    42.81     8.00   -18.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.30     2.17    17.56R    3.05  
Southampton       8    7   -7      -0.82    42.97    -1.81    39.90     8.03   -22.49     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.11     1.06    28.96R    7.33  
Everton           8    7   -7      -3.80    16.16    -6.51    44.60     8.29   -13.76     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.67     3.95    13.01R    2.22  
Norwich           8    6  -11      -0.37    47.62    -0.79    33.33     8.29   -39.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.20    62.01R   28.26  
Watford           8    3  -16      -4.87     7.67    -9.69    31.30     7.86   -39.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    71.30R   37.17  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bristol_City 1 0 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       11   22   +8       2.84    72.35     1.61    83.70     9.65    29.25    33.09    51.86    85.49    61.77P    0.02R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +7       6.49    91.69     6.31    74.69     9.51    14.03     7.33    16.59    54.59    25.11P    0.14R    0.01  
Preston         11   21  +11       3.41    76.27     7.19    75.77     9.84    21.09    10.49    21.51    60.20    31.00P    0.18R    0.01  
Swansea         11   21   +7       3.69    78.32     3.68    75.45     9.59    16.59     9.12    19.58    57.73    29.42P    0.13R    0.01  
Leeds_United    11   20   +8       2.47    69.60     4.43    77.67     9.50    22.36    13.10    26.54    67.60    38.00P    0.06R    0.01  
Bristol_City    11   20   +5       3.91    79.78     3.51    72.93     9.65    12.28     5.74    13.53    47.63    21.48P    0.30R    0.02  
Fulham          11   19  +10       0.27    51.90     4.55    75.89    10.18    23.56    11.42    23.14    60.60    33.96P    0.18R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       11   19   +7       2.14    67.64     4.32    69.09     9.53    10.10     2.62     6.93    32.68    12.84P    0.71R    0.07  
QPR             11   19   -1       5.57    88.38     1.80    60.01     9.47   -12.85     0.25     0.90     8.04     1.95P    7.08R    1.21  
Charlton        11   18   +3       3.46    77.15     3.74    62.70     9.85    -1.73     0.65     1.94    13.91     4.43P    4.45R    0.69  
Cardiff         11   16   +0      -0.27    47.89    -1.70    67.30    10.02     4.89     2.09     5.60    27.12    11.01P    1.68R    0.22  
Birmingham      11   16   -3       2.55    71.69    -0.71    60.09     9.35    -8.76     0.27     0.82     7.75     2.04P    6.74R    1.06  
Derby           11   15   +0      -1.86    34.79    -2.64    68.77     9.57     8.52     2.42     6.29    31.25    12.91P    0.85R    0.08  
Blackburn       11   14   -2      -0.44    47.19    -0.73    58.89     9.48    -6.88     0.21     0.66     6.80     1.83P    8.49R    1.52  
Millwall        11   14   -4       1.40    63.23    -0.44    56.23     9.10   -11.85     0.06     0.25     3.47     0.81P   12.71R    2.55  
Hull            11   13   -2      -2.09    33.68    -1.87    58.11     9.64    -7.28     0.17     0.63     6.21     1.84P   10.25R    1.92  
Brentford       11   12   +0      -3.89    20.48    -1.22    63.99     9.49     5.94     0.68     2.31    16.42     6.00P    2.70R    0.38  
Luton           11   11   -5      -2.32    32.27    -1.95    52.85     9.98   -15.52     0.06     0.18     2.47     0.65P   24.67R    6.91  
Wigan           11   11   -7      -1.92    34.63    -3.87    53.21     9.22   -15.14     0.04     0.12     1.71     0.40P   21.60R    5.20  
Middlesbrough   11   10   -5      -5.98     9.40    -6.45    59.17     9.25    -2.74     0.18     0.56     6.64     2.19P    7.20R    1.24  
Huddersfield    11    8   -6      -4.98    14.07    -2.88    48.02     9.40   -17.29     0.00     0.04     0.63     0.16P   40.86R   14.07  
Reading         11    8   -6      -3.57    21.42    -0.55    47.76     9.19   -18.55     0.01     0.02     0.48     0.07P   42.45R   14.66  
Barnsley        11    6  -14      -5.35    11.43    -8.23    43.36     9.44   -30.74     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.04P   62.11R   31.83  
Stoke           11    5  -11      -7.91     3.19    -7.89    47.27     9.27   -19.28     0.00     0.02     0.41     0.10P   44.44R   16.32  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 7 October 2019, Bolton 0 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              11   27  +16       7.17    94.39     8.80    87.75     9.19    39.73    57.40    75.82    95.70    81.86P    0.00R    0.00  
Wycombe              12   23   +8       5.11    85.03     5.93    64.36     8.90     3.56     0.81     2.99    21.85     6.19P    0.88R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       11   20   +6       2.66    71.47     2.56    70.30     9.14    13.57     3.21    10.29    45.41    18.38P    0.18R    0.00  
Blackpool            12   20   +3       2.38    68.66     1.26    65.02     8.78     4.79     0.82     3.15    23.33     7.26P    0.75R    0.00  
Coventry             11   20   +2       4.63    84.50     1.67    65.30     9.09     2.12     1.03     3.59    24.52     7.42P    0.98R    0.00  
Sunderland           11   19   +2      -0.21    47.65    -4.43    77.11     9.05    22.27    11.59    29.85    73.56    43.55P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough         11   18  +11      -0.49    45.46     5.46    73.95     9.31    28.34     7.55    20.56    62.62    31.83P    0.10R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       11   18   +2       2.18    68.08     0.80    63.04     9.02     1.58     0.59     2.20    17.57     5.24P    1.62R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           12   16   +7      -1.63    37.14     5.30    64.64     9.02    14.05     0.97     3.35    24.11     8.06P    1.05R    0.00  
Doncaster            10   16   +3       0.42    53.59     0.22    69.36     9.38    13.24     2.73     8.83    41.65    16.99P    0.40R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         12   16   +0       0.78    57.22     2.00    56.52     9.11    -5.70     0.12     0.49     5.74     1.46P    7.44R    0.12  
Shrewsbury           11   16   -3       1.17    60.54    -2.75    59.72     8.91    -5.10     0.19     0.89     9.91     2.54P    3.41R    0.04  
Rotherham            10   15   +7      -1.74    34.53     2.25    70.85    10.00    21.39     5.12    14.19    49.46    24.14P    0.38R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        10   15   +5       0.03    50.48     3.16    70.47     9.37    18.54     3.68    11.56    47.50    21.13P    0.25R    0.00  
Gillingham           11   13   +3      -2.37    31.03     2.64    57.76     9.25     1.45     0.15     0.67     8.07     2.14P    5.96R    0.08  
Portsmouth            9   12   +1      -2.49    27.29    -2.42    70.15     9.74    16.69     4.01    11.44    46.11    21.23P    0.39R    0.00  
MK_Dons              11   12   -6      -0.94    43.23    -2.44    49.33     9.20   -19.39     0.01     0.07     1.25     0.25P   26.65R    1.01  
Accrington_Stanley   11   11   -5      -1.92    34.91    -1.54    49.41     8.91   -16.76     0.02     0.05     1.00     0.22P   25.35R    0.86  
Rochdale             11   10   -8      -1.82    35.85    -2.25    45.72     8.77   -24.93     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.07P   40.98R    2.11  
Tranmere             11    9   -6      -1.89    34.64     1.58    42.54     9.07   -25.84     0.00     0.01     0.18     0.03P   54.92R    4.48  
AFC_Wimbledon        12    6   -9      -6.71     6.27    -2.84    41.51     8.49   -22.09     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   59.11R    4.58  
Southend             11    4  -16      -7.98     2.91   -10.68    38.93     8.76   -34.84     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   71.35R    9.16  
Bolton               10   -8  -23      -4.23    13.85   -14.29    23.74     8.76   -46.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.83R   77.54  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bradford 2 1 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Forest_Green     12   24   +8       5.35    86.22     4.73    76.35     9.27    16.65    14.64    39.09    71.84    47.32P    0.02R    0.01  
Exeter           12   23   +6       3.53    76.25     1.57    75.91     9.25    15.40    13.64    37.36    70.08    46.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Newport_County   12   23   +6       6.31    90.23     5.40    72.71     9.14    10.92     7.37    24.26    57.06    31.72P    0.07R    0.01  
Crewe            12   23   +5       5.82    87.75     3.84    72.19     9.38     8.92     6.98    23.55    54.69    30.09P    0.12R    0.03  
Cheltenham       12   22  +10       4.32    80.68     8.21    70.35     9.35    12.75     5.22    18.90    47.75    25.40P    0.17R    0.03  
Bradford         12   21   +6       1.15    58.65     1.07    79.33     9.62    23.55    25.22    53.04    81.11    61.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon          12   20   +4       1.88    64.98     1.50    71.24     9.44    11.01     6.13    21.03    51.31    28.28P    0.12R    0.02  
Colchester       12   19   +5       0.36    53.22     1.78    71.39     9.30    13.69     6.41    21.92    52.42    30.02P    0.11R    0.02  
Grimsby          12   18   +5       2.43    69.69     6.03    62.39     9.24     2.29     0.81     4.44    18.48     7.35P    1.57R    0.44  
Port_Vale        12   17   -1       2.17    68.22     1.07    58.41     9.07    -8.09     0.28     1.62     8.86     3.00P    4.00R    1.27  
Cambridge_Utd    12   16   +3       1.48    63.15     5.55    59.52     9.15    -0.95     0.30     2.10    11.53     4.07P    3.28R    1.03  
Plymouth         12   16   +2      -3.20    26.57    -2.18    71.53     9.84    15.44     7.60    23.78    53.51    32.79P    0.22R    0.04  
Crawley_Town     12   16   +0       1.07    59.59     2.39    57.70     9.25    -7.51     0.24     1.59     8.34     2.87P    5.13R    1.78  
Northampton      12   15   +1      -2.46    31.21    -0.54    63.28     9.33     3.64     1.07     5.48    21.38     9.28P    1.30R    0.35  
Walsall          12   15   -6      -2.02    34.41    -7.03    64.31     9.53    -1.55     1.33     6.44    23.75    10.93P    1.29R    0.37  
Macclesfield     12   14   -1       0.79    58.06     3.60    49.59     8.77   -17.01     0.02     0.13     1.30     0.30P   20.88R    8.91  
Salford_City     12   14   -5       1.74    65.42     1.71    46.29     8.95   -27.74     0.01     0.06     0.61     0.14P   35.84R   17.90  
Carlisle         12   14   -6      -1.63    37.68    -4.78    60.71     9.41    -5.83     0.49     2.99    13.92     5.48P    2.90R    0.93  
Mansfield        12   13   -3      -5.97    11.27    -6.75    64.73     9.26     4.74     1.40     6.95    25.70    12.49P    0.87R    0.26  
Leyton_Orient    12   13   -5      -0.20    49.75     0.02    48.75     9.24   -21.68     0.01     0.15     1.25     0.34P   25.51R   12.23  
Oldham           12   11   -4      -5.56    12.94    -4.19    61.15     9.40     1.41     0.54     3.36    15.71     6.65P    2.53R    0.81  
Scunthorpe       12    7   -8     -10.28     1.78    -9.24    56.78     9.94    -3.26     0.29     1.69     8.61     3.69P    7.33R    2.89  
Morecambe        12    7  -12      -5.50    11.47    -5.93    41.76     8.79   -30.27     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.04P   55.63R   35.45  
Stevenage        12    5  -10      -9.83     1.30    -7.82    46.85     9.09   -16.52     0.00     0.06     0.68     0.18P   31.09R   15.23  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 9 October 2019, Stockport 2 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax            16   32  +12       8.87    94.17    10.05    76.72     8.41    17.41    10.73    61.40    21.65P    0.09R    0.00  
Bromley            16   32   +7       8.02    91.33     4.06    76.58     8.68    11.95    10.60    59.35    20.47P    0.13R    0.00  
Yeovil             16   31  +11       2.40    65.07     0.97    85.63     8.67    31.31    47.38    90.28    61.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Barrow             16   28   +9       4.06    75.39     6.02    71.87     8.55    13.03     4.07    39.34    11.78P    0.56R    0.01  
Woking             16   26   +6       4.77    78.66     7.16    65.83     9.05     4.09     1.36    17.85     4.56P    4.05R    0.14  
Torquay            16   25   +5       3.73    73.07     6.40    63.42     9.03     0.16     0.71    12.11     2.94P    6.94R    0.42  
Notts_County       16   24   +7      -3.96    24.95    -2.14    77.77     8.80    26.21    14.63    67.51    33.21P    0.10R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     16   24   +7      -1.39    40.49     1.87    71.98     8.62    17.13     4.42    40.83    14.27P    0.61R    0.02  
Barnet             16   24   +3       0.84    56.09     1.07    69.46     8.45     9.45     2.13    28.61     8.54P    1.16R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red          16   24   +1       2.03    64.30     0.88    65.73     8.42     1.95     0.78    15.70     3.70P    3.33R    0.11  
Dover_Athletic     16   24   -2       1.97    63.47    -2.11    63.95     8.55    -4.16     0.62    11.52     2.70P    5.45R    0.23  
Harrogate_Town     16   23   +2      -0.95    43.88    -1.00    67.00     8.67     6.09     1.44    20.50     5.90P    2.56R    0.09  
Eastleigh          16   23   -1       2.11    64.67     0.78    63.55     8.46    -1.96     0.47    10.62     2.50P    5.52R    0.24  
Boreham_Wood       16   21   +4      -1.25    42.12     3.59    62.07     8.53     3.92     0.35     8.52     2.15P    7.48R    0.37  
Stockport          16   21   -8       4.33    78.31     0.29    51.77     8.38   -23.82     0.01     0.69     0.10P   44.25R    6.47  
Hartlepool         16   20   -4      -0.66    46.32    -2.00    57.26     8.40   -10.16     0.06     2.63     0.54P   19.91R    1.52  
Maidenhead         16   18   +1      -1.42    41.10     4.77    53.61     8.26    -7.36     0.02     0.96     0.19P   32.48R    3.65  
Aldershot          16   18   -3      -0.99    44.01     1.12    53.31     8.11   -11.26     0.01     0.83     0.17P   34.33R    3.54  
Sutton_United      16   16   -4      -4.71    20.48    -2.21    54.49     8.39    -7.83     0.02     1.26     0.29P   28.88R    3.13  
Wrexham            16   16   -5      -6.66    12.16    -6.14    58.66     8.45    -2.54     0.09     3.87     0.98P   14.60R    1.06  
AFC_Fylde          16   16  -12      -6.77    12.22   -13.00    58.31     8.67   -10.51     0.10     3.66     0.98P   17.44R    1.46  
Chesterfield       16   15   -7      -7.21    10.85    -7.34    55.12     8.53    -8.88     0.02     1.65     0.41P   27.12R    3.16  
Chorley            16   12  -15      -2.33    34.92    -3.26    38.29     8.03   -38.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    92.09R   64.33  
Ebbsfleet_United   16   10  -14      -9.33     4.60    -9.82    49.89     8.46   -16.19     0.00     0.29     0.08P   50.92R    9.99