Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 9 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2019, Arsenal 1 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         8   24  +14       5.98    97.24     1.53    89.60     7.49    56.37    60.18    94.62    98.71    99.65    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          8   16  +18      -3.83    11.03     0.88    86.07     7.01    72.46    38.04    90.13    97.48    99.26    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   15   +2       1.67    66.38    -1.76    65.76     8.56    17.06     0.44     3.93    24.87    45.17    75.98     0.03R    0.00  
Leicester         8   14   +7       3.01    78.95     7.27    60.91     8.52    15.26     0.13     1.15    10.51    24.28    56.28     0.17R    0.01  
Chelsea           8   14   +4      -0.40    45.21    -1.40    67.58     8.29    23.85     0.71     5.48    33.09    55.41    83.27     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   14   +0       3.16    80.25     0.20    51.07     8.23    -7.59     0.00     0.05     0.98     3.21    13.87     2.88R    0.31  
Burnley           8   12   +2       2.17    72.35     3.90    45.99     8.09   -10.55     0.00     0.02     0.26     0.91     5.22     8.85R    1.28  
West_Ham          8   12   +0       1.30    63.54     0.71    48.91     8.27    -8.73     0.00     0.02     0.61     2.10     9.63     5.02R    0.59  
Tottenham         8   11   +2      -3.23    18.88    -2.98    65.84     8.43    23.90     0.43     3.90    25.74    47.38    77.79     0.03R    0.00  
Bournemouth       8   11   +0       1.50    66.24     3.18    48.01     8.41    -9.47     0.00     0.02     0.50     1.79     8.61     6.57R    0.96  
Wolverhampton     8   10   +0       0.36    54.83     2.50    49.74     8.37    -2.86     0.00     0.04     0.68     2.53    11.58     4.29R    0.49  
Man_Utd           8    9   +1      -4.22    14.45    -2.31    58.65     8.28    13.74     0.06     0.64     6.20    16.51    45.89     0.31R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd         8    9   +0       0.33    55.10     3.65    42.19     8.33   -13.38     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.34     2.37    19.87R    4.18  
Brighton          8    9   -2       0.85    60.85     3.03    40.01     7.80   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.14     1.02    26.84R    5.68  
Aston_Villa       8    8   +1      -1.06    40.81     4.65    39.24     8.40   -18.33     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.18     1.38    32.07R    8.45  
Newcastle         8    8   -8      -0.72    43.79    -4.23    42.51     7.97   -18.46     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.27     1.91    18.26R    3.16  
Southampton       8    7   -7      -0.83    42.78    -1.79    39.88     8.05   -22.51     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.16     1.06    28.96R    7.19  
Everton           8    7   -7      -3.79    16.11    -6.49    44.70     8.24   -13.60     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.67     3.90    12.52R    2.19  
Norwich           8    6  -11      -0.38    47.62    -0.81    33.33     8.27   -39.63     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.26    62.10R   28.58  
Watford           8    3  -16      -4.90     7.37    -9.72    31.33     7.82   -39.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08    71.23R   36.92  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bristol_City 1 0 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       11   22   +8       2.91    72.84     1.75    83.63     9.67    29.23    33.23    51.70    85.30    61.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +7       6.47    91.67     6.29    74.59     9.53    13.80     7.31    16.54    54.61    25.01P    0.14R    0.01  
Preston         11   21  +11       3.40    76.32     7.20    75.60     9.87    20.82    10.55    21.72    59.65    31.11P    0.14R    0.01  
Swansea         11   21   +7       3.72    78.77     3.73    75.27     9.57    16.27     8.69    19.05    57.78    28.84P    0.10R    0.01  
Leeds_United    11   20   +8       2.50    69.80     4.47    77.37     9.52    21.99    12.52    25.88    66.55    37.60P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_City    11   20   +5       4.00    80.16     3.63    72.67     9.75    11.90     5.76    13.27    46.82    21.17P    0.35R    0.02  
Fulham          11   19  +10       0.28    51.80     4.56    75.82    10.20    23.42    11.58    23.23    60.52    33.96P    0.17R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       11   19   +7       2.17    67.92     4.38    69.05     9.53    10.01     2.70     6.91    32.58    12.80P    0.80R    0.07  
QPR             11   19   -1       5.56    88.25     1.78    60.07     9.43   -12.72     0.33     1.01     8.22     2.09P    6.94R    1.16  
Charlton        11   18   +3       3.54    77.50     3.84    62.47     9.80    -2.13     0.71     1.95    13.47     4.21P    4.39R    0.65  
Cardiff         11   16   +0      -0.31    47.66    -1.75    67.57     9.97     5.37     2.30     6.02    28.05    11.65P    1.56R    0.20  
Birmingham      11   16   -3       2.63    72.25    -0.59    59.81     9.40    -9.18     0.27     0.89     7.60     2.13P    7.32R    1.18  
Derby           11   15   +0      -1.80    35.37    -2.58    68.56     9.64     8.24     2.33     6.29    30.85    12.67P    0.96R    0.07  
Blackburn       11   14   -2      -0.44    46.93    -0.75    59.09     9.55    -6.59     0.25     0.79     7.21     2.01P    8.57R    1.55  
Millwall        11   14   -4       1.30    62.33    -0.57    56.52     9.18   -11.48     0.05     0.28     3.76     0.94P   12.83R    2.51  
Hull            11   13   -2      -2.11    33.25    -1.94    58.39     9.68    -6.82     0.22     0.75     6.64     1.91P    9.91R    1.97  
Brentford       11   12   +0      -3.92    20.26    -1.27    64.07     9.60     6.04     0.88     2.57    17.14     6.35P    3.00R    0.43  
Luton           11   11   -5      -2.46    31.35    -2.17    53.23    10.00   -14.85     0.09     0.28     2.85     0.83P   23.63R    6.42  
Wigan           11   11   -7      -1.90    34.89    -3.82    53.16     9.16   -15.24     0.02     0.09     1.72     0.40P   21.66R    5.21  
Middlesbrough   11   10   -5      -6.00     9.48    -6.45    59.21     9.31    -2.66     0.18     0.67     6.99     2.29P    7.38R    1.31  
Huddersfield    11    8   -6      -4.98    13.87    -2.88    48.18     9.35   -17.01     0.01     0.03     0.56     0.14P   40.63R   13.96  
Reading         11    8   -6      -3.64    21.25    -0.68    48.05     9.24   -18.10     0.01     0.04     0.53     0.13P   41.52R   14.33  
Barnsley        11    6  -14      -5.31    11.54    -8.18    43.07     9.45   -31.19     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   63.79R   32.90  
Stoke           11    5  -11      -7.96     2.97    -7.99    47.39     9.26   -19.13     0.00     0.02     0.43     0.11P   44.15R   16.03  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 7 October 2019, Bolton 0 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              11   27  +16       7.20    94.43     8.87    87.66     9.31    39.59    56.89    74.98    95.52    81.00P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              12   23   +8       5.20    85.72     6.02    64.15     8.85     3.16     0.78     2.80    20.95     5.84P    0.95R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       11   20   +6       2.65    71.41     2.56    70.26     9.19    13.53     3.46    10.51    45.08    18.36P    0.23R    0.00  
Blackpool            12   20   +3       2.44    69.09     1.34    64.86     8.77     4.55     0.78     3.02    23.15     7.28P    0.79R    0.00  
Coventry             11   20   +2       4.59    84.04     1.62    65.52     9.03     2.40     1.07     3.72    25.06     7.69P    0.88R    0.00  
Sunderland           11   19   +2      -0.23    47.53    -4.45    77.18     9.10    22.42    11.92    30.37    73.60    43.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough         11   18  +11      -0.49    45.64     5.44    73.93     9.27    28.34     7.40    20.25    62.61    31.79P    0.08R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       11   18   +2       2.21    68.50     0.87    62.87     8.96     1.34     0.54     2.09    17.07     5.16P    1.64R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           12   16   +7      -1.64    37.61     5.25    64.72     9.08    14.21     0.93     3.57    24.59     8.44P    1.11R    0.00  
Doncaster            10   16   +3       0.39    53.27     0.13    69.64     9.34    13.71     2.95     9.46    43.07    17.98P    0.33R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         12   16   +0       0.90    58.05     2.21    56.39     9.14    -6.00     0.10     0.45     5.68     1.45P    7.71R    0.15  
Shrewsbury           11   16   -3       1.18    60.84    -2.71    59.57     8.85    -5.33     0.17     0.80     9.29     2.50P    3.48R    0.04  
Rotherham            10   15   +7      -1.83    33.72     2.11    71.19     9.96    21.92     5.33    14.47    50.68    24.69P    0.35R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        10   15   +5       0.01    50.39     3.14    70.59     9.33    18.74     3.68    11.59    47.94    21.11P    0.26R    0.00  
Gillingham           11   13   +3      -2.34    31.15     2.66    57.73     9.20     1.43     0.15     0.71     7.69     2.07P    5.85R    0.06  
Portsmouth            9   12   +1      -2.43    27.84    -2.29    70.02     9.71    16.44     3.82    11.10    45.20    20.62P    0.41R    0.00  
MK_Dons              11   12   -6      -0.91    43.39    -2.41    49.10     9.20   -19.79     0.01     0.04     1.14     0.21P   27.75R    1.21  
Accrington_Stanley   11   11   -5      -1.86    35.50    -1.43    49.09     8.91   -17.37     0.01     0.04     0.98     0.18P   26.45R    0.99  
Rochdale             11   10   -8      -1.89    35.00    -2.42    46.09     8.80   -24.39     0.00     0.01     0.42     0.06P   39.20R    1.88  
Tranmere             11    9   -6      -1.81    35.38     1.67    42.48     8.98   -25.99     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.02P   55.67R    4.34  
AFC_Wimbledon        12    6   -9      -6.74     6.08    -2.85    41.63     8.54   -21.95     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   58.50R    4.77  
Southend             11    4  -16      -8.12     2.75   -10.89    39.11     8.78   -34.61     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   70.58R    9.22  
Bolton               10   -8  -23      -4.35    13.34   -14.44    23.92     8.84   -46.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.78R   77.31  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bradford 2 1 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Forest_Green     12   24   +8       5.41    86.57     4.84    76.23     9.22    16.50    14.49    39.00    71.38    47.15P    0.02R    0.00  
Exeter           12   23   +6       3.52    76.10     1.56    75.85     9.24    15.35    13.77    37.25    70.06    45.65P    0.02R    0.01  
Newport_County   12   23   +6       6.28    90.25     5.38    72.67     9.15    10.97     7.41    24.51    57.44    31.81P    0.06R    0.02  
Crewe            12   23   +5       5.88    88.29     3.93    71.91     9.47     8.48     6.72    22.64    53.26    29.08P    0.11R    0.02  
Cheltenham       12   22  +10       4.31    80.63     8.21    70.26     9.29    12.65     5.26    18.76    47.39    24.96P    0.13R    0.02  
Bradford         12   21   +6       1.12    58.59     1.01    79.38     9.64    23.63    25.63    53.63    81.17    62.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon          12   20   +4       1.97    65.67     1.64    71.20     9.40    10.96     6.04    20.98    51.38    28.73P    0.16R    0.03  
Colchester       12   19   +5       0.31    52.69     1.70    71.45     9.36    13.85     6.41    22.19    53.03    30.53P    0.08R    0.01  
Grimsby          12   18   +5       2.43    69.73     6.03    62.42     9.17     2.28     0.74     4.27    18.44     7.05P    1.50R    0.37  
Port_Vale        12   17   -1       2.17    68.32     1.09    58.38     8.95    -8.15     0.17     1.41     8.45     2.70P    3.99R    1.19  
Cambridge_Utd    12   16   +3       1.47    63.06     5.53    59.74     9.15    -0.63     0.41     2.48    11.77     4.35P    2.99R    0.90  
Plymouth         12   16   +2      -3.11    27.06    -2.04    71.34     9.90    15.13     7.42    23.35    53.09    32.33P    0.24R    0.05  
Crawley_Town     12   16   +0       1.07    59.53     2.38    57.65     9.21    -7.57     0.24     1.47     8.35     2.79P    5.12R    1.78  
Northampton      12   15   +1      -2.50    30.69    -0.59    63.58     9.45     4.03     1.23     5.93    22.67     9.97P    1.30R    0.37  
Walsall          12   15   -6      -1.98    34.95    -7.00    64.22     9.52    -1.72     1.27     6.33    23.58    10.80P    1.32R    0.36  
Macclesfield     12   14   -1       0.66    56.92     3.44    49.92     8.76   -16.46     0.02     0.18     1.37     0.37P   19.98R    8.18  
Salford_City     12   14   -5       1.73    65.47     1.66    46.22     8.92   -27.88     0.00     0.05     0.57     0.11P   36.13R   18.09  
Carlisle         12   14   -6      -1.68    37.61    -4.86    60.80     9.39    -5.72     0.51     3.10    14.17     5.65P    2.76R    0.86  
Mansfield        12   13   -3      -6.03    10.80    -6.84    64.98     9.17     5.03     1.48     7.26    26.32    12.97P    0.77R    0.18  
Leyton_Orient    12   13   -5      -0.12    50.51     0.08    48.69     9.19   -21.70     0.03     0.17     1.28     0.38P   25.89R   12.18  
Oldham           12   11   -4      -5.49    13.04    -4.13    60.98     9.40     1.19     0.52     3.25    15.27     6.47P    2.78R    0.90  
Scunthorpe       12    7   -8     -10.34     1.57    -9.32    56.89     9.90    -3.10     0.24     1.68     8.82     3.87P    7.18R    2.73  
Morecambe        12    7  -12      -5.48    11.47    -5.92    41.56     8.71   -30.61     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.01P   56.65R   36.39  
Stevenage        12    5  -10      -9.78     1.42    -7.75    46.89     9.09   -16.49     0.01     0.07     0.66     0.21P   30.81R   15.37  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 9 October 2019, Stockport 2 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax            16   32  +12       8.90    94.01    10.10    76.66     8.43    17.32    10.03    61.17    21.03P    0.09R    0.00  
Bromley            16   32   +7       8.05    91.38     4.07    76.48     8.72    11.82    10.65    59.14    20.48P    0.15R    0.00  
Yeovil             16   31  +11       2.32    64.92     0.82    85.72     8.64    31.44    47.94    90.61    62.19P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             16   28   +9       4.05    75.44     6.07    71.75     8.58    12.83     4.11    38.94    11.91P    0.55R    0.01  
Woking             16   26   +6       4.90    79.19     7.35    65.58     9.01     3.66     1.18    17.00     4.37P    4.36R    0.18  
Torquay            16   25   +5       3.73    73.12     6.38    63.41     9.03     0.18     0.83    12.08     2.94P    6.78R    0.40  
Notts_County       16   24   +7      -3.94    25.05    -2.10    77.84     8.81    26.28    14.84    67.92    33.61P    0.13R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     16   24   +7      -1.38    40.65     1.88    71.95     8.62    17.10     4.32    40.77    14.05P    0.60R    0.01  
Barnet             16   24   +3       0.85    56.00     1.09    69.42     8.42     9.36     2.05    28.53     8.33P    1.10R    0.03  
Dag_&_Red          16   24   +1       2.07    64.26     0.91    65.86     8.50     2.12     0.75    16.08     4.01P    3.43R    0.11  
Dover_Athletic     16   24   -2       1.92    63.48    -2.18    64.06     8.56    -3.91     0.60    11.70     2.72P    5.31R    0.19  
Harrogate_Town     16   23   +2      -1.03    43.18    -1.13    67.16     8.62     6.31     1.52    20.84     6.19P    2.50R    0.07  
Eastleigh          16   23   -1       2.14    65.00     0.84    63.40     8.51    -2.20     0.45    10.35     2.37P    5.98R    0.27  
Boreham_Wood       16   21   +4      -1.27    42.01     3.54    62.12     8.48     3.98     0.34     8.54     2.03P    7.35R    0.40  
Stockport          16   21   -8       4.37    78.22     0.44    51.72     8.56   -24.04     0.02     0.82     0.13P   44.94R    6.95  
Hartlepool         16   20   -4      -0.68    46.15    -2.00    57.24     8.36   -10.19     0.06     2.67     0.50P   19.76R    1.52  
Maidenhead         16   18   +1      -1.48    40.70     4.69    53.69     8.28    -7.22     0.01     1.07     0.19P   32.49R    3.59  
Aldershot          16   18   -3      -1.07    43.54     0.99    53.44     8.17   -11.08     0.01     0.92     0.18P   34.03R    3.64  
Sutton_United      16   16   -4      -4.72    20.54    -2.22    54.60     8.39    -7.69     0.02     1.43     0.31P   28.61R    3.05  
Wrexham            16   16   -5      -6.66    12.17    -6.21    58.84     8.35    -2.31     0.12     3.75     1.03P   14.11R    1.03  
AFC_Fylde          16   16  -12      -6.69    12.62   -12.90    58.26     8.67   -10.63     0.10     3.75     0.93P   17.55R    1.50  
Chesterfield       16   15   -7      -7.30    10.58    -7.45    55.09     8.50    -8.80     0.04     1.59     0.43P   27.27R    3.10  
Chorley            16   12  -15      -2.30    35.34    -3.16    38.23     8.02   -38.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.16R   64.07  
Ebbsfleet_United   16   10  -14      -9.29     4.58    -9.80    49.87     8.56   -16.24     0.00     0.31     0.08P   50.76R    9.86