Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 8 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2019, Arsenal 1 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         8   24  +14       5.96    97.18     1.53    89.65     7.49    56.41    59.87    94.50    98.73    99.68    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          8   16  +18      -3.85    10.76     0.79    86.14     7.01    72.62    38.40    89.95    97.26    99.16    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   15   +2       1.70    66.63    -1.71    65.78     8.60    17.06     0.47     3.96    24.75    45.66    76.27     0.04R    0.00  
Leicester         8   14   +7       2.98    78.79     7.23    60.94     8.49    15.30     0.11     1.17    10.67    24.46    56.77     0.16R    0.01  
Chelsea           8   14   +4      -0.35    45.87    -1.36    67.40     8.36    23.59     0.64     5.54    32.31    54.48    82.64     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   14   +0       3.16    80.12     0.24    50.93     8.18    -7.86     0.00     0.06     0.97     3.11    13.69     2.80R    0.26  
Burnley           8   12   +2       2.12    71.78     3.80    46.07     8.07   -10.45     0.00     0.01     0.26     0.98     5.29     8.55R    1.23  
West_Ham          8   12   +0       1.29    63.39     0.66    48.99     8.25    -8.57     0.00     0.03     0.60     2.10     9.73     4.96R    0.55  
Tottenham         8   11   +2      -3.31    18.07    -3.14    66.22     8.32    24.46     0.47     4.11    26.97    48.88    79.33     0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth       8   11   +0       1.51    66.44     3.27    47.79     8.43    -9.86     0.00     0.03     0.46     1.60     8.26     7.02R    1.08  
Wolverhampton     8   10   +0       0.29    53.90     2.40    49.78     8.30    -2.78     0.00     0.04     0.69     2.44    11.60     4.21R    0.53  
Man_Utd           8    9   +1      -4.17    14.70    -2.24    58.49     8.25    13.46     0.04     0.60     5.92    15.86    44.94     0.32R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd         8    9   +0       0.41    55.95     3.76    41.91     8.29   -13.82     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.30     2.23    20.84R    4.44  
Brighton          8    9   -2       0.79    60.13     2.95    40.37     7.79   -17.22     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.10     1.10    25.31R    5.30  
Aston_Villa       8    8   +1      -1.06    40.66     4.66    39.21     8.37   -18.27     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.17     1.20    31.94R    8.68  
Newcastle         8    8   -8      -0.76    43.09    -4.28    42.80     7.96   -18.05     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.25     2.04    17.48R    2.98  
Southampton       8    7   -7      -0.84    42.76    -1.78    39.92     8.05   -22.55     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.11     1.02    29.17R    7.13  
Everton           8    7   -7      -3.75    16.36    -6.41    44.48     8.23   -13.92     0.00     0.01     0.18     0.62     3.72    13.11R    2.27  
Norwich           8    6  -11      -0.33    48.08    -0.73    33.12     8.28   -39.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.22    63.07R   29.40  
Watford           8    3  -16      -4.85     7.60    -9.65    31.43     7.77   -39.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    70.98R   36.12  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bristol_City 1 0 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       11   22   +8       2.86    72.56     1.63    83.74     9.64    29.37    33.43    51.85    85.30    62.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +7       6.47    91.80     6.31    74.59     9.51    13.83     7.18    16.55    54.04    24.75P    0.16R    0.01  
Preston         11   21  +11       3.40    76.23     7.18    75.67     9.82    20.89    10.47    21.35    59.77    31.05P    0.13R    0.01  
Swansea         11   21   +7       3.68    78.36     3.67    75.40     9.53    16.51     8.80    19.23    58.05    28.83P    0.11R    0.01  
Leeds_United    11   20   +8       2.47    69.86     4.44    77.60     9.54    22.25    13.11    26.76    67.14    38.37P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_City    11   20   +5       3.96    80.07     3.56    72.86     9.66    12.17     5.64    13.20    47.22    20.83P    0.29R    0.01  
Fulham          11   19  +10       0.30    51.90     4.60    75.69    10.26    23.25    11.30    22.81    59.82    33.22P    0.19R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed       11   19   +7       2.17    67.70     4.36    68.97     9.57     9.91     2.66     6.79    32.08    12.75P    0.69R    0.04  
QPR             11   19   -1       5.53    88.12     1.72    60.25     9.49   -12.45     0.27     1.00     8.37     2.16P    6.95R    1.14  
Charlton        11   18   +3       3.57    77.60     3.88    62.55     9.85    -1.98     0.68     1.97    13.62     4.25P    4.46R    0.65  
Cardiff         11   16   +0      -0.40    47.03    -1.89    67.75    10.02     5.57     2.24     5.86    28.50    11.67P    1.39R    0.18  
Birmingham      11   16   -3       2.59    71.99    -0.64    59.95     9.48    -9.01     0.27     0.87     7.96     2.25P    7.15R    1.13  
Derby           11   15   +0      -1.82    35.41    -2.58    68.61     9.66     8.32     2.33     6.44    30.70    12.79P    0.98R    0.10  
Blackburn       11   14   -2      -0.43    47.16    -0.73    59.05     9.59    -6.70     0.23     0.79     7.13     2.08P    8.54R    1.62  
Millwall        11   14   -4       1.29    62.28    -0.59    56.49     9.17   -11.53     0.08     0.30     3.77     0.96P   12.64R    2.47  
Hull            11   13   -2      -2.10    33.47    -1.89    58.25     9.70    -6.98     0.21     0.75     6.58     1.96P    9.94R    1.96  
Brentford       11   12   +0      -3.95    20.21    -1.33    64.29     9.61     6.33     0.85     2.53    17.57     6.40P    2.72R    0.37  
Luton           11   11   -5      -2.36    31.91    -2.04    52.85    10.01   -15.42     0.07     0.21     2.60     0.67P   24.73R    7.03  
Wigan           11   11   -7      -1.89    34.88    -3.81    53.18     9.15   -15.24     0.01     0.09     1.72     0.37P   21.36R    4.94  
Middlesbrough   11   10   -5      -5.89     9.97    -6.31    58.90     9.34    -3.12     0.16     0.60     6.50     2.18P    7.69R    1.36  
Huddersfield    11    8   -6      -4.93    14.15    -2.80    47.98     9.38   -17.31     0.00     0.02     0.57     0.13P   41.12R   14.26  
Reading         11    8   -6      -3.55    21.80    -0.55    47.72     9.15   -18.54     0.00     0.02     0.42     0.10P   42.11R   14.67  
Barnsley        11    6  -14      -5.36    11.26    -8.24    43.40     9.47   -30.67     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.03P   62.10R   31.64  
Stoke           11    5  -11      -7.95     3.05    -7.95    47.15     9.28   -19.43     0.00     0.02     0.40     0.13P   44.49R   16.36  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 7 October 2019, Bolton 0 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              11   27  +16       7.19    94.47     8.83    87.60     9.28    39.51    57.09    74.85    95.43    80.97P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              12   23   +8       5.13    85.18     5.94    64.39     8.87     3.57     0.87     3.02    21.71     6.36P    0.97R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town       11   20   +6       2.73    72.00     2.68    70.22     9.28    13.40     3.38    10.38    45.16    18.22P    0.22R    0.00  
Blackpool            12   20   +3       2.39    68.54     1.28    64.93     8.76     4.63     0.81     3.11    23.15     7.35P    0.82R    0.00  
Coventry             11   20   +2       4.64    84.26     1.69    65.30     9.06     2.11     1.06     3.56    24.45     7.66P    0.97R    0.00  
Sunderland           11   19   +2      -0.19    47.77    -4.35    76.97     9.01    22.01    11.19    29.40    73.37    42.81P    0.04R    0.00  
Peterborough         11   18  +11      -0.58    44.90     5.33    74.12     9.26    28.69     7.61    21.06    63.46    32.83P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       11   18   +2       2.24    68.58     0.88    62.90     8.91     1.33     0.52     2.10    17.20     4.98P    1.59R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           12   16   +7      -1.64    37.26     5.29    64.54     9.07    13.92     0.89     3.38    23.79     8.16P    1.09R    0.00  
Doncaster            10   16   +3       0.44    53.82     0.20    69.48     9.42    13.46     2.77     9.40    42.08    17.42P    0.35R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         12   16   +0       0.85    57.63     2.11    56.36     9.03    -5.96     0.08     0.38     5.64     1.36P    7.57R    0.12  
Shrewsbury           11   16   -3       1.14    60.15    -2.78    59.84     8.87    -4.95     0.19     0.88     9.87     2.60P    3.34R    0.03  
Rotherham            10   15   +7      -1.81    34.09     2.14    71.15    10.00    21.80     5.46    14.73    50.87    25.02P    0.38R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        10   15   +5       0.10    51.36     3.27    70.38     9.35    18.34     3.63    11.26    46.98    20.23P    0.25R    0.00  
Gillingham           11   13   +3      -2.35    31.20     2.68    57.58     9.26     1.16     0.15     0.61     7.64     2.07P    6.49R    0.05  
Portsmouth            9   12   +1      -2.46    27.71    -2.39    70.22     9.77    16.79     4.28    11.75    46.18    21.39P    0.37R    0.00  
MK_Dons              11   12   -6      -0.95    43.08    -2.47    49.22     9.22   -19.50     0.01     0.07     1.25     0.23P   27.47R    1.01  
Accrington_Stanley   11   11   -5      -1.92    34.90    -1.50    49.39     8.82   -16.81     0.00     0.03     1.04     0.19P   25.15R    0.77  
Rochdale             11   10   -8      -1.88    35.24    -2.35    45.91     8.78   -24.61     0.00     0.01     0.39     0.07P   40.72R    1.93  
Tranmere             11    9   -6      -1.97    33.85     1.39    42.79     9.08   -25.39     0.00     0.02     0.21     0.04P   54.49R    4.04  
AFC_Wimbledon        12    6   -9      -6.71     6.13    -2.84    41.61     8.54   -21.97     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.02P   58.98R    4.59  
Southend             11    4  -16      -8.06     2.90   -10.81    39.08     8.81   -34.61     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   70.82R    9.18  
Bolton               10   -8  -23      -4.22    13.71   -14.23    23.63     8.78   -46.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.87R   78.26  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bradford 2 1 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Forest_Green     12   24   +8       5.40    86.58     4.79    76.23     9.23    16.45    14.59    39.15    71.78    47.45P    0.02R    0.00  
Exeter           12   23   +6       3.51    76.23     1.54    75.78     9.32    15.21    13.94    37.16    69.50    45.69P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County   12   23   +6       6.36    90.32     5.48    72.46     9.15    10.62     7.21    23.90    56.10    30.97P    0.08R    0.02  
Crewe            12   23   +5       5.83    88.04     3.87    72.16     9.41     8.87     7.21    23.61    54.64    30.33P    0.10R    0.03  
Cheltenham       12   22  +10       4.20    79.69     8.05    70.69     9.37    13.21     5.81    20.02    49.62    26.64P    0.13R    0.03  
Bradford         12   21   +6       1.31    60.07     1.25    78.97     9.56    22.99    24.07    51.85    80.21    60.36P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon          12   20   +4       1.99    65.62     1.64    71.05     9.47    10.69     5.97    20.98    50.64    28.30P    0.16R    0.04  
Colchester       12   19   +5       0.35    53.02     1.77    71.35     9.21    13.67     6.24    21.42    52.57    29.80P    0.09R    0.02  
Grimsby          12   18   +5       2.39    69.33     5.94    62.47     9.23     2.39     0.88     4.50    18.68     7.38P    1.64R    0.40  
Port_Vale        12   17   -1       2.15    67.98     1.07    58.46     9.10    -8.01     0.27     1.67     9.07     3.01P    4.01R    1.17  
Cambridge_Utd    12   16   +3       1.45    63.00     5.51    59.62     9.08    -0.85     0.36     2.24    11.54     4.15P    3.04R    0.94  
Plymouth         12   16   +2      -3.18    26.72    -2.16    71.53     9.83    15.46     7.72    24.05    53.71    32.92P    0.24R    0.06  
Crawley_Town     12   16   +0       1.04    59.12     2.34    57.83     9.25    -7.29     0.27     1.65     8.70     2.95P    4.99R    1.68  
Northampton      12   15   +1      -2.39    31.68    -0.44    63.18     9.40     3.47     1.16     5.58    21.25     9.49P    1.46R    0.47  
Walsall          12   15   -6      -2.01    34.83    -7.02    64.30     9.57    -1.61     1.45     6.53    24.02    11.18P    1.29R    0.35  
Macclesfield     12   14   -1       0.78    57.80     3.61    49.69     8.75   -16.80     0.01     0.12     1.30     0.33P   20.76R    8.74  
Salford_City     12   14   -5       1.73    65.65     1.70    46.38     8.98   -27.60     0.00     0.05     0.63     0.12P   35.97R   18.10  
Carlisle         12   14   -6      -1.62    37.76    -4.77    60.60     9.37    -6.02     0.50     3.01    13.54     5.34P    2.97R    0.97  
Mansfield        12   13   -3      -5.93    11.26    -6.67    64.73     9.25     4.66     1.44     7.01    26.08    12.55P    0.93R    0.27  
Leyton_Orient    12   13   -5      -0.20    49.61    -0.01    48.88     9.12   -21.42     0.01     0.12     1.24     0.33P   25.13R   11.88  
Oldham           12   11   -4      -5.52    13.07    -4.16    61.11     9.41     1.33     0.60     3.52    15.68     6.70P    2.43R    0.79  
Scunthorpe       12    7   -8     -10.39     1.49    -9.36    56.98     9.83    -2.95     0.30     1.78     8.67     3.75P    7.02R    2.71  
Morecambe        12    7  -12      -5.60    10.83    -6.09    41.85     8.73   -30.03     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.03P   56.00R   35.70  
Stevenage        12    5  -10      -9.87     1.33    -7.88    46.90     9.07   -16.45     0.00     0.06     0.68     0.22P   31.50R   15.62  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 8 October 2019, AFC_Fylde 1 3 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax            16   32  +12       8.88    94.00    10.10    76.66     8.34    17.34    10.20    61.04    21.20P    0.06R    0.00  
Bromley            16   32   +7       8.08    91.41     4.11    76.61     8.66    12.06    10.71    59.31    20.57P    0.13R    0.00  
Yeovil             16   31  +11       2.30    64.53     0.81    85.71     8.71    31.46    47.78    90.21    61.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Barrow             16   28   +9       4.01    75.47     6.04    71.75     8.55    12.82     4.03    38.84    11.69P    0.59R    0.01  
Woking             16   26   +6       4.81    78.82     7.20    65.83     8.98     4.08     1.19    17.57     4.45P    3.77R    0.13  
Torquay            16   25   +5       3.80    73.37     6.47    63.37     9.12     0.07     0.84    12.13     3.03P    6.73R    0.33  
Notts_County       16   24   +7      -4.03    24.38    -2.24    77.78     8.77    26.21    14.59    67.19    33.42P    0.12R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     16   24   +7      -1.35    40.80     1.94    71.94     8.65    17.08     4.49    40.67    14.29P    0.60R    0.01  
Barnet             16   24   +3       0.78    55.72     1.00    69.60     8.47     9.61     2.14    29.01     8.63P    1.11R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red          16   24   +1       2.03    64.25     0.89    65.83     8.43     2.11     0.82    15.74     3.84P    3.05R    0.10  
Dover_Athletic     16   24   -2       1.97    63.47    -2.12    64.16     8.56    -3.90     0.60    11.72     2.86P    4.98R    0.20  
Harrogate_Town     16   23   +2      -0.96    43.77    -1.05    66.93     8.57     6.01     1.31    19.94     5.62P    2.30R    0.07  
Eastleigh          16   23   -1       2.00    64.29     0.61    63.65     8.50    -1.79     0.49    10.66     2.38P    5.35R    0.24  
Boreham_Wood       16   21   +4      -1.19    42.28     3.71    61.92     8.47     3.69     0.35     8.01     1.94P    7.33R    0.38  
Hartlepool         15   20   -3       0.40    53.56    -1.48    59.65     8.65    -7.58     0.15     4.97     1.08P   13.21R    0.87  
Maidenhead         16   18   +1      -1.39    41.29     4.81    53.63     8.25    -7.31     0.02     0.96     0.17P   31.59R    3.39  
Aldershot          16   18   -3      -1.05    43.48     1.01    53.34     8.17   -11.23     0.02     0.83     0.14P   33.61R    3.42  
Stockport          15   18   -9       2.98    71.94    -0.16    49.08     8.69   -26.58     0.01     0.43     0.07P   56.62R   11.36  
Sutton_United      16   16   -4      -4.63    21.06    -2.12    54.43     8.49    -7.93     0.03     1.45     0.33P   29.03R    3.06  
Wrexham            16   16   -5      -6.75    11.81    -6.28    58.81     8.44    -2.31     0.11     3.99     1.04P   13.88R    0.96  
AFC_Fylde          16   16  -12      -6.64    12.48   -12.82    58.27     8.63   -10.57     0.09     3.43     0.90P   17.00R    1.34  
Chesterfield       16   15   -7      -7.27    10.61    -7.42    55.09     8.47    -8.83     0.04     1.65     0.47P   26.26R    2.83  
Chorley            16   12  -15      -2.35    34.90    -3.25    38.26     7.99   -38.07     0.00     0.01     0.01P   91.92R   61.65  
Ebbsfleet_United   16   10  -14      -9.29     4.69    -9.75    49.72     8.53   -16.46     0.00     0.25     0.05P   50.76R    9.61