Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 7 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2019, Arsenal 1 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         8   24  +14       5.96    97.19     1.55    89.65     7.51    56.43    60.40    94.44    98.69    99.62    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          8   16  +18      -3.80    11.18     0.93    86.03     6.99    72.35    37.75    90.17    97.34    99.13    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   15   +2       1.70    66.61    -1.68    65.69     8.58    16.87     0.49     3.96    24.71    45.19    75.59     0.04R    0.01  
Leicester         8   14   +7       2.97    78.85     7.20    61.01     8.54    15.43     0.13     1.32    10.79    24.70    57.43     0.16R    0.01  
Chelsea           8   14   +4      -0.28    46.77    -1.26    67.28     8.44    23.31     0.71     5.40    31.88    53.97    82.04     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   14   +0       3.13    79.81     0.15    51.13     8.33    -7.52     0.01     0.08     1.11     3.61    14.61     2.91R    0.29  
Burnley           8   12   +2       2.15    72.20     3.84    46.02     7.99   -10.51     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.90     5.03     8.67R    1.19  
West_Ham          8   12   +0       1.30    63.34     0.71    48.96     8.26    -8.59     0.01     0.03     0.69     2.15     9.73     4.80R    0.57  
Tottenham         8   11   +2      -3.26    18.36    -3.07    66.12     8.42    24.33     0.48     3.94    27.02    48.90    78.62     0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth       8   11   +0       1.48    66.13     3.16    47.89     8.48    -9.65     0.00     0.03     0.51     1.77     8.45     6.97R    1.10  
Wolverhampton     8   10   +0       0.30    54.26     2.44    49.74     8.38    -2.86     0.00     0.03     0.73     2.51    11.70     4.18R    0.50  
Man_Utd           8    9   +1      -4.16    15.03    -2.22    58.43     8.32    13.34     0.03     0.58     5.94    15.81    44.86     0.39R    0.04  
Sheff_Utd         8    9   +0       0.34    55.13     3.67    42.12     8.38   -13.52     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.39     2.36    20.72R    4.33  
Brighton          8    9   -2       0.77    59.79     2.89    40.43     7.83   -17.16     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.14     1.18    25.35R    5.23  
Aston_Villa       8    8   +1      -1.13    40.08     4.57    39.35     8.37   -17.97     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.16     1.24    31.56R    8.37  
Newcastle         8    8   -8      -0.73    43.59    -4.26    42.65     8.01   -18.24     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.28     2.15    18.17R    3.15  
Southampton       8    7   -7      -0.80    43.20    -1.77    39.86     8.06   -22.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     1.04    29.43R    7.36  
Everton           8    7   -7      -3.75    16.55    -6.40    44.37     8.24   -14.14     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.63     3.79    13.28R    2.29  
Norwich           8    6  -11      -0.34    48.20    -0.74    33.23     8.27   -39.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.22    62.39R   29.13  
Watford           8    3  -16      -4.88     7.36    -9.72    31.40     7.82   -39.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    70.96R   36.44  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bristol_City 1 0 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       11   22   +8       2.90    72.68     1.73    83.52     9.77    28.94    32.88    51.05    84.77    61.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +7       6.55    91.95     6.41    74.59     9.59    13.82     7.39    16.81    54.16    25.09P    0.17R    0.01  
Preston         11   21  +11       3.40    76.09     7.19    75.76     9.84    21.08    10.71    21.76    60.04    31.11P    0.15R    0.01  
Swansea         11   21   +7       3.75    78.57     3.76    75.29     9.49    16.29     8.54    18.91    57.62    28.55P    0.13R    0.01  
Leeds_United    11   20   +8       2.44    69.40     4.38    77.79     9.49    22.55    13.24    27.19    68.27    38.64P    0.06R    0.00  
Bristol_City    11   20   +5       3.94    79.94     3.52    72.94     9.60    12.31     5.85    13.28    47.51    21.30P    0.31R    0.02  
Fulham          11   19  +10       0.28    51.86     4.55    75.75    10.17    23.32    11.27    22.83    59.91    33.48P    0.19R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       11   19   +7       2.15    67.64     4.32    69.10     9.49    10.11     2.75     6.98    32.47    12.89P    0.67R    0.06  
QPR             11   19   -1       5.55    88.16     1.75    60.09     9.50   -12.69     0.26     0.97     8.30     2.11P    6.96R    1.18  
Charlton        11   18   +3       3.55    77.67     3.88    62.65     9.80    -1.81     0.69     2.09    13.73     4.43P    4.33R    0.56  
Cardiff         11   16   +0      -0.37    47.26    -1.88    67.60    10.03     5.38     2.27     5.92    28.26    11.78P    1.50R    0.18  
Birmingham      11   16   -3       2.55    71.77    -0.68    59.95     9.37    -9.01     0.22     0.84     7.69     2.10P    7.03R    1.13  
Derby           11   15   +0      -1.78    35.57    -2.51    68.49     9.58     8.13     2.18     5.95    30.53    12.45P    0.97R    0.10  
Blackburn       11   14   -2      -0.45    46.91    -0.76    58.98     9.54    -6.79     0.23     0.81     7.06     2.06P    8.66R    1.55  
Millwall        11   14   -4       1.34    62.45    -0.53    56.31     9.09   -11.76     0.08     0.24     3.34     0.79P   12.94R    2.44  
Hull            11   13   -2      -2.09    33.38    -1.90    58.24     9.62    -7.00     0.23     0.71     6.38     1.87P    9.90R    1.95  
Brentford       11   12   +0      -3.91    20.33    -1.27    64.13     9.55     6.11     0.88     2.50    16.96     6.35P    2.76R    0.42  
Luton           11   11   -5      -2.36    32.05    -2.00    52.97     9.96   -15.29     0.05     0.23     2.53     0.73P   24.16R    6.79  
Wigan           11   11   -7      -1.93    34.41    -3.88    53.21     9.25   -15.14     0.03     0.10     1.79     0.43P   21.84R    5.29  
Middlesbrough   11   10   -5      -5.97     9.50    -6.40    59.14     9.34    -2.75     0.22     0.74     7.03     2.42P    7.47R    1.27  
Huddersfield    11    8   -6      -4.92    14.16    -2.79    47.87     9.50   -17.49     0.02     0.05     0.65     0.16P   41.72R   14.90  
Reading         11    8   -6      -3.52    21.88    -0.51    47.58     9.13   -18.71     0.00     0.02     0.39     0.10P   42.73R   14.86  
Barnsley        11    6  -14      -5.44    10.95    -8.36    43.51     9.46   -30.48     0.00     0.01     0.18     0.02P   61.45R   31.22  
Stoke           11    5  -11      -7.98     3.05    -8.03    47.35     9.27   -19.11     0.00     0.02     0.42     0.11P   43.91R   16.02  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 7 October 2019, Bolton 0 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              11   27  +16       7.21    94.54     8.88    87.69     9.28    39.66    56.96    75.16    95.51    81.19P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              12   23   +8       5.17    85.54     5.98    64.33     8.84     3.46     0.71     2.76    21.42     5.85P    0.92R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       11   20   +6       2.72    71.83     2.65    70.25     9.16    13.53     3.15    10.26    45.09    18.16P    0.16R    0.00  
Blackpool            12   20   +3       2.40    68.78     1.29    64.84     8.72     4.54     0.83     3.14    22.52     7.18P    0.75R    0.01  
Coventry             11   20   +2       4.63    84.30     1.62    65.43     9.05     2.31     1.12     3.80    24.89     7.91P    0.91R    0.00  
Sunderland           11   19   +2      -0.20    47.76    -4.39    77.19     9.01    22.38    11.89    30.32    73.77    43.73P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough         11   18  +11      -0.55    44.95     5.38    74.13     9.34    28.65     7.70    21.20    63.18    32.73P    0.07R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       11   18   +2       2.29    68.93     0.96    62.72     8.95     1.08     0.55     2.00    16.57     4.90P    1.61R    0.02  
Oxford_Utd           12   16   +7      -1.66    37.00     5.24    64.59     9.13    14.04     0.95     3.37    24.21     8.13P    1.18R    0.01  
Doncaster            10   16   +3       0.44    53.92     0.24    69.54     9.38    13.55     2.82     9.11    42.59    17.42P    0.40R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         12   16   +0       0.85    57.61     2.13    56.27     9.07    -6.14     0.09     0.38     5.46     1.28P    8.10R    0.09  
Shrewsbury           11   16   -3       1.19    60.79    -2.67    59.70     8.89    -5.21     0.21     0.90     9.81     2.56P    3.37R    0.03  
Rotherham            10   15   +7      -1.74    34.42     2.25    70.99     9.94    21.51     5.21    14.07    50.11    24.48P    0.39R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        10   15   +5       0.06    50.87     3.20    70.47     9.35    18.54     3.69    11.21    47.32    20.58P    0.28R    0.00  
Gillingham           11   13   +3      -2.39    30.92     2.61    57.72     9.23     1.34     0.15     0.72     7.83     2.10P    6.18R    0.07  
Portsmouth            9   12   +1      -2.49    27.23    -2.42    70.29     9.68    16.90     3.94    11.46    46.68    21.21P    0.43R    0.00  
MK_Dons              11   12   -6      -1.03    42.52    -2.62    49.36     9.27   -19.36     0.02     0.08     1.35     0.28P   27.14R    0.99  
Accrington_Stanley   11   11   -5      -1.85    35.66    -1.42    49.17     8.83   -17.17     0.01     0.03     0.96     0.19P   26.07R    0.88  
Rochdale             11   10   -8      -1.92    34.90    -2.43    46.04     8.85   -24.40     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.07P   40.05R    1.90  
Tranmere             11    9   -6      -1.92    34.59     1.53    42.70     9.13   -25.72     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P   54.29R    4.23  
AFC_Wimbledon        12    6   -9      -6.84     5.93    -3.01    41.76     8.54   -21.65     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   58.09R    4.52  
Southend             11    4  -16      -8.04     2.77   -10.73    38.90     8.76   -34.96     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   71.58R    9.25  
Bolton               10   -8  -23      -4.23    13.75   -14.26    23.57     8.73   -46.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.00R   78.00  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bradford 2 1 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Forest_Green     12   24   +8       5.40    86.47     4.77    76.40     9.28    16.68    14.64    39.71    72.04    47.97P    0.02R    0.00  
Exeter           12   23   +6       3.48    75.76     1.50    75.79     9.30    15.33    13.42    36.92    69.54    45.60P    0.02R    0.00  
Newport_County   12   23   +6       6.27    90.10     5.36    72.72     9.17    11.02     7.46    24.96    57.16    32.13P    0.10R    0.02  
Crewe            12   23   +5       5.80    87.81     3.84    72.09     9.49     8.75     7.03    23.27    54.23    29.70P    0.15R    0.03  
Cheltenham       12   22  +10       4.33    80.63     8.21    70.33     9.29    12.73     5.17    18.79    47.93    25.06P    0.14R    0.04  
Bradford         12   21   +6       1.20    58.99     1.09    79.19     9.74    23.35    25.34    52.34    80.56    60.79P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon          12   20   +4       1.96    65.38     1.62    71.06     9.48    10.75     6.00    20.69    50.74    27.96P    0.17R    0.05  
Colchester       12   19   +5       0.32    52.77     1.73    71.51     9.24    13.87     6.54    21.98    53.02    30.38P    0.09R    0.02  
Grimsby          12   18   +5       2.47    70.11     6.07    62.29     9.12     2.10     0.69     4.09    17.85     7.00P    1.54R    0.40  
Port_Vale        12   17   -1       2.19    68.56     1.13    58.35     9.02    -8.20     0.21     1.48     8.58     2.79P    4.13R    1.25  
Cambridge_Utd    12   16   +3       1.44    62.91     5.50    59.68     9.14    -0.70     0.35     2.36    11.80     4.25P    2.99R    0.92  
Plymouth         12   16   +2      -3.23    26.17    -2.23    71.66     9.74    15.63     7.61    24.12    54.15    33.35P    0.22R    0.05  
Crawley_Town     12   16   +0       1.11    59.94     2.43    57.63     9.25    -7.66     0.26     1.51     8.12     2.71P    5.12R    1.77  
Northampton      12   15   +1      -2.44    31.32    -0.50    63.32     9.42     3.69     1.18     5.57    21.97     9.58P    1.40R    0.39  
Walsall          12   15   -6      -2.03    34.58    -7.07    64.36     9.54    -1.50     1.45     6.79    24.17    11.36P    1.20R    0.31  
Macclesfield     12   14   -1       0.78    58.01     3.61    49.77     8.75   -16.79     0.01     0.12     1.34     0.31P   20.62R    8.55  
Salford_City     12   14   -5       1.70    65.11     1.67    46.31     9.00   -27.76     0.00     0.07     0.60     0.16P   35.95R   18.03  
Carlisle         12   14   -6      -1.57    38.23    -4.72    60.55     9.40    -6.09     0.46     2.93    13.74     5.41P    3.00R    0.98  
Mansfield        12   13   -3      -6.01    11.04    -6.75    64.88     9.26     4.91     1.42     7.31    26.53    12.96P    0.87R    0.23  
Leyton_Orient    12   13   -5      -0.21    49.50    -0.05    48.94     9.25   -21.35     0.01     0.16     1.35     0.37P   25.12R   11.77  
Oldham           12   11   -4      -5.50    13.05    -4.12    60.96     9.37     1.16     0.50     3.13    15.11     6.33P    2.68R    0.86  
Scunthorpe       12    7   -8     -10.32     1.73    -9.30    56.85     9.86    -3.14     0.25     1.60     8.64     3.56P    7.21R    2.79  
Morecambe        12    7  -12      -5.53    11.42    -5.96    41.69     8.80   -30.44     0.00     0.02     0.13     0.04P   56.43R   36.42  
Stevenage        12    5  -10      -9.84     1.34    -7.83    46.96     9.06   -16.36     0.01     0.07     0.68     0.24P   30.82R   15.11  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Boreham_Wood 1 0 Solihull_Moors; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax            15   31  +12       9.67    96.01    10.72    78.19     8.60    18.98    15.89    67.59    27.08P    0.05R    0.00  
Bromley            15   29   +6       6.47    87.24     3.13    74.27     8.85     9.95     8.15    48.73    16.67P    0.32R    0.00  
Yeovil             15   28   +9       1.56    60.44     0.22    83.85     8.93    28.93    41.19    85.83    55.83P    0.02R    0.00  
Woking             15   26   +8       5.27    81.72     7.81    67.48     9.19     6.55     2.53    22.95     6.86P    2.69R    0.08  
Barrow             15   25   +7       2.96    70.01     4.84    69.25     8.79     9.55     3.02    28.81     8.49P    1.27R    0.03  
Barnet             15   24   +4       2.12    65.23     1.95    71.51     8.66    11.42     4.53    37.44    12.40P    0.63R    0.01  
Dag_&_Red          15   24   +3       2.68    68.60     1.79    67.46     8.64     4.46     1.68    21.09     5.83P    2.13R    0.05  
Dover_Athletic     15   24   +2       2.56    67.79     0.72    67.52     8.84     3.36     1.99    21.85     6.28P    2.29R    0.04  
Torquay            15   22   +3       2.75    68.38     5.27    60.35     9.26    -3.88     0.47     7.34     1.75P   12.62R    0.89  
Harrogate_Town     15   22   +2      -0.59    46.35    -1.03    67.50     8.83     6.30     2.02    22.51     6.75P    2.44R    0.05  
Boreham_Wood       15   21   +6      -0.37    47.79     4.81    64.01     8.75     6.81     0.93    12.97     3.68P    4.86R    0.21  
Notts_County       15   21   +5      -4.85    19.76    -3.04    76.13     9.08    24.13    12.93    59.99    29.69P    0.25R    0.01  
Solihull_Moors     15   21   +5      -2.38    33.58     0.78    69.96     8.82    14.50     3.44    32.56    11.26P    1.17R    0.03  
Eastleigh          15   20   -2       0.87    57.00     0.30    61.72     8.65    -3.28     0.36     7.69     1.74P    8.32R    0.46  
Hartlepool         15   20   -3       0.63    55.20    -1.18    59.31     8.59    -8.04     0.19     4.47     1.01P   13.67R    0.78  
Maidenhead         15   18   +2      -0.42    47.88     5.17    54.98     8.51    -6.31     0.05     1.70     0.38P   26.05R    2.25  
Stockport          15   18   -9       2.94    71.75    -0.28    48.81     8.69   -26.98     0.01     0.41     0.04P   57.03R   10.98  
Sutton_United      15   16   -2      -4.05    23.49    -1.24    56.11     8.63    -5.44     0.06     2.28     0.53P   22.24R    1.90  
AFC_Fylde          15   16  -10      -5.83    15.09   -11.76    60.95     8.91    -6.55     0.32     6.90     1.93P   10.65R    0.70  
Wrexham            15   15   -5      -6.18    12.87    -6.03    59.41     8.66    -1.97     0.19     5.00     1.34P   12.55R    0.87  
Aldershot          15   15   -7      -1.92    37.10    -1.95    49.65     8.24   -18.07     0.01     0.26     0.04P   51.24R    7.83  
Chesterfield       15   12   -9      -8.48     6.22    -8.84    52.27     8.66   -12.61     0.02     0.83     0.20P   38.23R    5.24  
Chorley            15   11  -15      -2.40    34.07    -3.58    37.73     8.17   -39.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.20R   62.19  
Ebbsfleet_United   15   10  -12      -8.33     5.96    -8.57    52.53     8.77   -12.09     0.02     0.79     0.21P   37.07R    5.39