Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 6 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2019, Arsenal 1 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         8   24  +14       6.01    97.31     1.64    89.45     7.55    56.05    59.69    94.24    98.66    99.64    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          8   16  +18      -3.84    10.98     0.86    86.05     7.01    72.42    38.50    90.19    97.44    99.22    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   15   +2       1.71    66.80    -1.65    65.73     8.53    16.95     0.46     3.97    24.84    45.61    76.05     0.04R    0.00  
Leicester         8   14   +7       2.95    78.59     7.18    60.89     8.56    15.27     0.10     1.29    10.52    24.34    56.46     0.17R    0.01  
Chelsea           8   14   +4      -0.38    45.54    -1.41    67.37     8.39    23.58     0.71     5.60    32.55    54.62    82.53     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   14   +0       3.16    80.06     0.20    51.00     8.28    -7.66     0.00     0.07     1.03     3.27    13.94     2.97R    0.32  
Burnley           8   12   +2       2.09    71.49     3.74    46.25     8.14   -10.13     0.00     0.01     0.33     1.02     5.60     8.75R    1.22  
West_Ham          8   12   +0       1.29    63.33     0.70    48.93     8.32    -8.64     0.00     0.04     0.64     2.14     9.89     5.11R    0.61  
Tottenham         8   11   +2      -3.26    18.77    -3.03    65.94     8.34    24.05     0.47     3.90    25.99    47.92    78.56     0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth       8   11   +0       1.48    66.04     3.18    47.93     8.42    -9.62     0.00     0.03     0.54     1.84     8.53     6.76R    0.99  
Wolverhampton     8   10   +0       0.36    54.89     2.52    49.79     8.31    -2.86     0.00     0.03     0.66     2.48    11.58     4.11R    0.50  
Man_Utd           8    9   +1      -4.17    14.75    -2.24    58.48     8.33    13.49     0.06     0.62     6.37    16.22    45.07     0.34R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd         8    9   +0       0.40    55.85     3.77    41.92     8.31   -13.83     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.31     2.24    21.06R    4.46  
Brighton          8    9   -2       0.83    60.60     2.96    40.28     7.86   -17.37     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     1.12    25.97R    5.61  
Aston_Villa       8    8   +1      -1.12    40.06     4.57    39.41     8.38   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.18     1.32    31.30R    8.20  
Newcastle         8    8   -8      -0.77    42.96    -4.32    42.70     8.01   -18.14     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.29     2.03    18.19R    3.25  
Southampton       8    7   -7      -0.77    43.50    -1.71    39.77     8.04   -22.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10     1.06    29.86R    7.48  
Everton           8    7   -7      -3.76    16.23    -6.46    44.60     8.18   -13.79     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.65     3.80    12.55R    2.19  
Norwich           8    6  -11      -0.35    48.01    -0.75    33.36     8.25   -39.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.24    62.18R   28.27  
Watford           8    3  -16      -4.90     7.30    -9.74    31.45     7.88   -39.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07    70.58R   36.86  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bristol_City 1 0 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       11   22   +8       2.87    72.45     1.71    83.59     9.67    29.18    33.22    51.65    85.28    61.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +7       6.44    91.52     6.30    74.57     9.57    13.82     7.37    16.89    54.54    25.31P    0.18R    0.01  
Preston         11   21  +11       3.53    77.10     7.40    75.43     9.84    20.58    10.10    21.02    58.83    30.28P    0.13R    0.01  
Swansea         11   21   +7       3.70    78.30     3.69    75.24     9.62    16.26     8.78    19.12    57.53    28.95P    0.16R    0.02  
Leeds_United    11   20   +8       2.48    69.87     4.41    77.58     9.56    22.20    13.12    26.70    67.23    38.29P    0.08R    0.00  
Bristol_City    11   20   +5       4.00    80.15     3.64    72.64     9.63    11.83     5.59    13.09    46.60    20.76P    0.29R    0.02  
Fulham          11   19  +10       0.29    51.96     4.55    75.84    10.21    23.50    11.50    23.33    60.46    33.93P    0.21R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed       11   19   +7       2.14    67.59     4.30    69.17     9.50    10.24     2.82     7.03    33.16    13.05P    0.67R    0.06  
QPR             11   19   -1       5.66    88.63     1.95    59.96     9.48   -12.93     0.29     1.00     8.04     2.13P    7.29R    1.20  
Charlton        11   18   +3       3.63    78.07     3.97    62.45     9.89    -2.19     0.70     1.96    13.65     4.26P    4.62R    0.71  
Cardiff         11   16   +0      -0.32    47.70    -1.80    67.40    10.11     5.08     2.23     5.92    27.65    11.38P    1.69R    0.24  
Birmingham      11   16   -3       2.61    72.27    -0.60    59.81     9.36    -9.15     0.24     0.77     7.41     2.03P    7.27R    1.18  
Derby           11   15   +0      -1.82    35.41    -2.61    68.62     9.62     8.28     2.31     6.25    31.21    12.84P    0.97R    0.09  
Blackburn       11   14   -2      -0.52    46.64    -0.87    59.21     9.59    -6.46     0.26     0.81     7.57     2.19P    8.32R    1.56  
Millwall        11   14   -4       1.29    62.22    -0.58    56.49     9.19   -11.47     0.07     0.29     3.77     0.90P   12.70R    2.66  
Hull            11   13   -2      -2.13    33.10    -1.96    58.54     9.68    -6.60     0.22     0.75     6.92     2.09P    9.41R    1.85  
Brentford       11   12   +0      -3.99    19.91    -1.39    64.27     9.51     6.29     0.86     2.44    17.46     6.36P    2.71R    0.35  
Luton           11   11   -5      -2.38    31.69    -2.04    53.14     9.99   -15.03     0.08     0.23     2.72     0.72P   23.89R    6.60  
Wigan           11   11   -7      -1.98    34.04    -3.93    53.31     9.16   -15.00     0.03     0.10     1.81     0.45P   21.50R    5.07  
Middlesbrough   11   10   -5      -5.97     9.57    -6.41    59.05     9.24    -2.92     0.19     0.61     6.49     2.08P    7.53R    1.32  
Huddersfield    11    8   -6      -4.93    14.29    -2.81    48.09     9.41   -17.19     0.01     0.03     0.65     0.13P   41.37R   14.11  
Reading         11    8   -6      -3.59    21.55    -0.59    47.89     9.21   -18.24     0.00     0.01     0.50     0.09P   41.81R   14.66  
Barnsley        11    6  -14      -5.38    11.33    -8.32    43.28     9.44   -30.82     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.03P   62.90R   32.01  
Stoke           11    5  -11      -7.97     3.11    -7.99    47.26     9.17   -19.27     0.00     0.01     0.37     0.10P   44.30R   16.25  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 3 2 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              11   27  +16       7.19    94.50     8.83    87.67     9.31    39.67    56.63    74.80    95.35    81.10P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              12   23   +8       5.21    85.33     6.04    64.15     8.86     3.19     0.72     2.72    20.49     5.81P    0.98R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       11   20   +6       2.69    71.79     2.58    70.31     9.27    13.60     3.32    10.59    45.29    18.68P    0.23R    0.00  
Coventry             11   20   +2       4.56    84.06     1.58    65.45     9.03     2.30     1.05     3.76    24.18     7.51P    0.86R    0.00  
Blackpool            11   19   +3       2.94    73.36     1.53    65.93     9.03     5.52     1.24     4.24    26.90     9.09P    0.73R    0.01  
Sunderland           11   19   +2      -0.21    47.32    -4.41    77.15     9.13    22.37    11.80    29.98    73.24    43.31P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough         11   18  +11      -0.51    45.51     5.45    73.88     9.28    28.28     7.18    19.82    62.14    31.33P    0.09R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       11   18   +2       2.27    68.68     0.94    62.83     8.98     1.26     0.51     2.04    16.79     4.93P    1.66R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           12   16   +7      -1.71    36.98     5.15    64.78     9.12    14.32     1.00     3.61    24.41     8.36P    1.15R    0.01  
Doncaster            10   16   +3       0.42    53.40     0.19    69.54     9.40    13.59     3.03     9.15    42.18    17.17P    0.38R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         12   16   +0       0.82    57.44     2.12    56.64     9.13    -5.56     0.11     0.44     5.85     1.46P    7.36R    0.09  
Shrewsbury           11   16   -3       1.18    60.57    -2.71    59.78     8.87    -5.08     0.19     0.82     9.59     2.58P    3.16R    0.03  
Rotherham            10   15   +7      -1.83    33.70     2.09    71.21    10.05    21.94     5.54    14.64    50.33    24.67P    0.38R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        10   15   +5       0.01    50.38     3.13    70.51     9.34    18.59     3.54    11.28    47.19    20.31P    0.28R    0.00  
Gillingham           11   13   +3      -2.38    30.70     2.59    57.82     9.29     1.44     0.14     0.69     8.14     2.21P    5.92R    0.07  
Portsmouth            9   12   +1      -2.45    27.57    -2.38    70.07     9.76    16.55     3.95    11.31    44.99    20.89P    0.41R    0.00  
MK_Dons              11   12   -6      -0.99    42.62    -2.50    49.38     9.22   -19.31     0.02     0.05     1.26     0.28P   26.65R    0.98  
Accrington_Stanley   11   11   -5      -1.91    34.94    -1.54    49.41     8.89   -16.80     0.01     0.04     1.02     0.18P   25.34R    0.85  
Rochdale             11   10   -8      -1.90    35.16    -2.41    45.97     8.76   -24.56     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.06P   40.00R    1.95  
Tranmere             11    9   -6      -1.88    34.78     1.56    42.62     9.00   -25.75     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P   55.08R    3.97  
AFC_Wimbledon        12    6   -9      -6.70     6.35    -2.79    41.40     8.57   -22.25     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   59.78R    4.79  
Southend             11    4  -16      -8.03     2.90   -10.71    38.92     8.75   -34.97     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   71.60R    8.77  
Bolton                9   -9  -23      -4.07    12.76   -14.33    23.31     8.98   -48.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.94R   78.47  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Bradford 2 1 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Forest_Green     12   24   +8       5.42    86.69     4.84    76.26     9.28    16.48    14.73    39.30    71.63    47.59P    0.02R    0.00  
Exeter           12   23   +6       3.58    76.67     1.64    75.65     9.29    15.11    13.11    36.66    69.04    45.15P    0.02R    0.00  
Newport_County   12   23   +6       6.32    90.23     5.40    72.47     9.09    10.66     6.88    23.74    56.49    30.99P    0.07R    0.01  
Crewe            12   23   +5       5.86    88.02     3.93    72.08     9.47     8.71     7.11    23.37    54.22    30.00P    0.12R    0.03  
Cheltenham       12   22  +10       4.30    80.33     8.21    70.28     9.34    12.66     5.18    18.64    47.66    24.88P    0.16R    0.02  
Bradford         12   21   +6       1.13    58.40     0.99    79.42     9.64    23.61    25.85    53.50    81.21    61.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon          12   20   +4       1.97    65.49     1.61    71.16     9.39    10.91     6.00    20.79    51.07    28.17P    0.15R    0.05  
Colchester       12   19   +5       0.23    52.03     1.61    71.68     9.29    14.09     6.86    22.57    54.06    31.06P    0.13R    0.03  
Grimsby          12   18   +5       2.45    70.05     6.06    62.28     9.20     2.14     0.84     4.42    18.04     7.26P    1.53R    0.43  
Port_Vale        12   17   -1       2.23    68.39     1.19    58.18     8.96    -8.43     0.19     1.41     8.11     2.68P    4.15R    1.21  
Cambridge_Utd    12   16   +3       1.48    63.03     5.55    59.58     9.11    -0.86     0.30     2.17    11.54     3.91P    3.17R    0.97  
Plymouth         12   16   +2      -3.17    26.53    -2.14    71.48     9.78    15.38     7.33    23.72    53.50    32.60P    0.26R    0.07  
Crawley_Town     12   16   +0       1.08    59.31     2.37    57.69     9.27    -7.58     0.25     1.56     8.44     2.87P    5.28R    1.77  
Northampton      12   15   +1      -2.44    31.39    -0.50    63.44     9.37     3.84     1.05     5.60    22.11     9.55P    1.32R    0.37  
Walsall          12   15   -6      -2.04    34.40    -7.07    64.42     9.60    -1.39     1.33     6.80    24.55    11.47P    1.33R    0.40  
Macclesfield     12   14   -1       0.78    58.09     3.59    49.78     8.68   -16.70     0.02     0.14     1.21     0.29P   20.39R    8.35  
Salford_City     12   14   -5       1.73    65.42     1.68    46.34     8.97   -27.66     0.01     0.08     0.63     0.16P   36.04R   18.14  
Carlisle         12   14   -6      -1.62    37.92    -4.76    60.62     9.38    -6.00     0.50     2.93    13.85     5.43P    2.82R    0.91  
Mansfield        12   13   -3      -6.00    10.74    -6.81    64.85     9.25     4.90     1.55     7.19    26.19    13.01P    0.93R    0.28  
Leyton_Orient    12   13   -5      -0.20    49.81    -0.03    48.82     9.21   -21.57     0.02     0.15     1.25     0.33P   25.69R   12.12  
Oldham           12   11   -4      -5.51    13.16    -4.12    61.06     9.45     1.30     0.58     3.51    15.79     6.71P    2.65R    0.83  
Scunthorpe       12    7   -8     -10.27     1.76    -9.22    56.80     9.83    -3.21     0.32     1.69     8.55     3.72P    7.24R    2.71  
Morecambe        12    7  -12      -5.62    10.95    -6.14    41.91     8.82   -30.01     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.04P   55.46R   35.78  
Stevenage        12    5  -10      -9.85     1.33    -7.86    46.99     9.09   -16.37     0.00     0.06     0.72     0.23P   31.06R   15.52  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 October 2019, Boreham_Wood 1 0 Solihull_Moors; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax            15   31  +12       9.65    95.94    10.68    78.16     8.64    18.94    15.80    67.21    26.83P    0.06R    0.00  
Bromley            15   29   +6       6.54    87.34     3.26    74.24     8.86     9.89     8.35    48.89    16.39P    0.33R    0.01  
Yeovil             15   28   +9       1.53    60.06     0.18    83.96     8.91    29.15    41.68    86.12    56.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking             15   26   +8       5.22    81.18     7.69    67.56     9.29     6.69     2.66    23.40     6.92P    2.71R    0.09  
Barrow             15   25   +7       2.95    69.86     4.81    69.21     8.81     9.48     3.01    28.51     8.65P    1.37R    0.03  
Barnet             15   24   +4       2.00    64.18     1.81    71.55     8.69    11.48     4.47    37.70    12.57P    0.63R    0.01  
Dag_&_Red          15   24   +3       2.68    68.57     1.77    67.52     8.68     4.57     1.75    21.72     6.02P    2.07R    0.05  
Dover_Athletic     15   24   +2       2.53    67.68     0.65    67.65     8.75     3.55     2.00    22.32     6.32P    2.05R    0.05  
Torquay            15   22   +3       2.92    69.69     5.53    60.10     9.23    -4.25     0.45     6.88     1.72P   13.06R    1.02  
Harrogate_Town     15   22   +2      -0.52    46.58    -0.93    67.42     8.80     6.18     1.91    22.07     6.74P    2.21R    0.07  
Boreham_Wood       15   21   +6      -0.49    47.01     4.63    64.09     8.69     7.00     0.96    13.14     3.66P    4.60R    0.16  
Notts_County       15   21   +5      -4.69    20.84    -2.81    75.93     9.05    23.76    12.41    59.36    29.04P    0.28R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     15   21   +5      -2.37    33.77     0.77    69.87     8.79    14.44     3.32    31.96    10.99P    1.20R    0.02  
Eastleigh          15   20   -2       0.92    57.27     0.38    61.57     8.63    -3.47     0.35     7.39     1.69P    8.59R    0.51  
Hartlepool         15   20   -3       0.59    54.69    -1.23    59.47     8.67    -7.79     0.21     4.97     1.19P   13.60R    0.85  
Maidenhead         15   18   +2      -0.48    47.34     5.07    55.05     8.46    -6.17     0.04     1.66     0.30P   25.69R    2.36  
Stockport          15   18   -9       2.84    70.84    -0.47    48.94     8.79   -26.77     0.01     0.40     0.07P   56.16R   11.02  
Sutton_United      15   16   -2      -3.96    23.96    -1.15    56.01     8.66    -5.60     0.08     2.46     0.59P   22.57R    1.84  
AFC_Fylde          15   16  -10      -5.76    15.40   -11.64    60.85     8.90    -6.69     0.28     6.92     1.91P   10.99R    0.77  
Wrexham            15   15   -5      -6.21    12.98    -6.04    59.42     8.70    -1.96     0.23     4.95     1.41P   12.66R    0.96  
Aldershot          15   15   -7      -1.85    37.69    -1.84    49.59     8.27   -18.20     0.01     0.28     0.06P   51.64R    8.10  
Chesterfield       15   12   -9      -8.53     6.32    -8.94    52.44     8.74   -12.32     0.01     0.89     0.21P   37.65R    5.33  
Chorley            15   11  -15      -2.47    33.57    -3.70    37.91     8.22   -39.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.77R   61.41  
Ebbsfleet_United   15   10  -12      -8.29     6.14    -8.49    52.35     8.73   -12.41     0.02     0.79     0.19P   38.12R    5.33