Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 4 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 30 September 2019, Man_Utd 1 1 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         7   21  +13       5.24    96.11     2.03    89.08     7.58    58.16    41.81    91.82    98.12    99.49    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          7   16  +20      -1.50    27.86     4.04    90.59     6.83    83.24    56.91    95.56    99.21    99.81    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         7   14   +8       3.49    83.79     6.65    60.98     8.66    13.72     0.08     0.87     9.43    22.69    55.44     0.16R    0.02  
Arsenal           7   12   +1       0.80    58.32    -1.49    65.19     8.76    17.91     0.28     2.33    20.38    41.04    73.22     0.04R    0.00  
West_Ham          7   12   +1       2.79    77.71     1.88    51.57     8.45    -6.02     0.01     0.04     1.18     3.87    15.79     2.35R    0.25  
Tottenham         7   11   +5      -1.74    29.49    -0.01    69.88     8.41    31.44     0.73     6.53    42.27    65.13    88.62     0.00R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   11   +1      -1.21    36.54    -3.11    64.70     8.54    18.55     0.15     2.03    18.80    38.72    72.07     0.05R    0.01  
Bournemouth       7   11   +1       2.19    73.66     3.04    48.53     8.66   -11.10     0.00     0.02     0.58     2.13     9.65     5.70R    0.90  
Crystal_Palace    7   11   -1       1.37    65.70    -0.90    48.62     8.38   -10.28     0.00     0.01     0.44     1.71     9.03     4.96R    0.67  
Man_Utd           7    9   +2      -2.87    22.07    -1.38    60.83     8.48    16.03     0.04     0.77     8.91    22.17    55.40     0.17R    0.02  
Burnley           7    9   +1       0.66    58.45     3.18    44.26     8.20   -12.52     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.56     3.54    11.63R    2.12  
Sheff_Utd         7    8   +0       0.60    58.84     3.61    42.53     8.59   -14.49     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.43     2.76    18.28R    4.42  
Wolverhampton     7    7   -2      -1.95    29.66    -1.06    44.67     8.33   -11.69     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.55     3.76    11.61R    2.22  
Southampton       7    7   -4      -0.14    50.32     0.07    42.05     8.25   -18.47     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.26     1.94    19.05R    4.53  
Everton           7    7   -6      -2.79    21.91    -5.96    46.08     8.43   -13.04     0.00     0.01     0.25     1.05     5.73     8.86R    1.49  
Brighton          7    6   -5      -0.97    39.74     0.08    36.52     7.81   -24.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.34    41.30R   12.41  
Norwich           7    6   -7       0.58    59.21     2.05    37.94     8.79   -29.44     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.18     1.10    37.47R   12.97  
Aston_Villa       7    5   -3      -2.21    27.46     1.62    35.06     8.35   -27.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.37    49.49R   19.73  
Newcastle         7    5   -9      -2.46    23.40    -5.14    40.47     8.18   -20.58     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14     1.17    24.03R    5.68  
Watford           7    2  -16      -4.52     7.13    -9.22    32.08     8.10   -40.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13    64.86R   32.56  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 4 October 2019, Birmingham 2 1 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Swansea         10   21   +8       5.34    88.31     5.09    77.91     9.77    19.12    13.87    27.20    67.65    37.42P    0.05R    0.00  
Leeds_United    10   20   +9       3.89    80.52     5.49    79.84     9.78    24.44    19.14    35.28    74.86    46.22P    0.02R    0.00  
West_Brom       10   19   +6       1.85    65.62     0.70    81.01     9.95    25.23    23.40    40.37    77.71    51.40P    0.03R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   10   19   +6       5.07    87.36     5.66    72.62     9.84    12.33     5.44    12.87    46.58    20.30P    0.37R    0.04  
Fulham          10   18  +10       1.11    59.04     5.24    77.03    10.49    24.58    14.53    27.41    64.58    38.05P    0.14R    0.01  
Preston         10   18   +7       2.96    74.35     5.07    72.67    10.07    14.81     6.44    14.06    47.13    21.81P    0.39R    0.03  
Bristol_City    10   17   +4       2.79    73.32     3.24    71.49     9.93    11.55     4.86    11.22    42.45    18.72P    0.55R    0.07  
Charlton        10   17   +3       3.86    80.78     3.66    61.98     9.99    -3.16     0.69     1.92    13.03     4.14P    4.83R    0.69  
Sheff_Wed       10   16   +6       0.89    58.07     3.89    67.49     9.75     9.16     2.22     5.66    27.69    10.90P    1.09R    0.14  
Cardiff         10   16   +2       0.36    53.04    -0.86    69.61    10.13     8.30     3.80     8.66    34.94    15.58P    0.92R    0.10  
QPR             10   16   -3       4.30    83.61     0.24    57.13     9.58   -16.35     0.12     0.47     4.96     1.17P   11.60R    2.08  
Birmingham      11   16   -3       2.53    71.61    -0.75    59.79     9.40    -9.04     0.23     0.82     7.63     2.04P    6.56R    0.88  
Blackburn       10   14   +0       0.68    56.90     0.70    61.79     9.76    -2.35     0.53     1.60    11.98     3.79P    4.80R    0.71  
Hull            10   13   +1      -1.14    40.49     0.45    62.05     9.96     0.01     0.76     1.96    13.24     4.33P    4.64R    0.69  
Brentford       10   12   +1      -2.81    26.78    -0.64    65.81     9.94     7.57     1.70     4.15    22.78     8.96P    2.00R    0.25  
Derby           10   12   -2      -2.73    27.23    -3.50    66.84     9.94     6.15     1.84     4.83    25.72    10.17P    1.57R    0.18  
Luton           10   11   -3      -1.71    36.55    -1.25    54.70    10.32   -12.73     0.13     0.47     4.29     1.28P   18.85R    4.71  
Millwall        10   11   -5      -0.46    46.97    -1.78    53.47     9.25   -14.27     0.03     0.11     2.01     0.46P   19.32R    4.32  
Wigan           10   11   -6      -0.92    42.54    -3.47    54.47     9.35   -14.30     0.05     0.18     2.49     0.68P   17.00R    3.70  
Middlesbrough   11   10   -5      -5.85     9.91    -6.25    58.93     9.30    -3.05     0.20     0.67     6.60     2.22P    6.93R    1.17  
Reading         10    8   -5      -2.68    27.49    -0.36    48.71     9.49   -18.10     0.02     0.04     0.76     0.14P   36.99R   11.59  
Barnsley        10    6  -10      -5.08    11.55    -6.19    46.33     9.68   -23.49     0.00     0.02     0.50     0.12P   47.63R   18.64  
Huddersfield    10    5   -9      -6.00     7.32    -5.06    43.96     9.58   -23.71     0.00     0.01     0.26     0.06P   56.86R   25.04  
Stoke           10    2  -12      -9.81     0.51    -9.35    43.84     9.35   -22.67     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P   56.85R   24.95  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Bristol_Rovers 1 0 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              10   24  +15       5.81    91.18     8.18    85.68     9.56    38.10    46.10    66.06    92.75    74.19P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              11   22   +8       5.50    88.21     5.86    64.59     9.10     3.49     1.06     3.28    22.69     6.59P    1.03R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town       10   20   +7       3.81    80.69     3.26    72.22     9.42    15.45     5.58    14.20    53.47    23.22P    0.12R    0.00  
Coventry             10   20   +6       4.99    87.33     4.11    68.10     9.32     8.31     2.38     6.79    35.22    12.60P    0.50R    0.00  
Sunderland           10   19   +4       0.97    57.98    -2.74    80.24     9.25    27.12    20.77    42.03    82.69    55.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool            11   19   +3       3.04    74.21     1.68    65.93     9.01     5.51     1.22     4.05    26.80     8.80P    0.66R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       11   18   +2       2.14    68.14     0.74    62.76     8.98     1.20     0.54     1.86    16.67     4.80P    1.81R    0.01  
Peterborough         10   17  +11       0.03    50.01     5.76    74.96     9.47    29.24     9.13    22.79    66.03    35.01P    0.08R    0.00  
Doncaster             9   16   +4       1.82    66.26     1.21    71.64     9.50    15.62     4.78    12.94    51.13    22.50P    0.21R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           11   15   +7      -1.21    40.20     5.36    65.19     9.31    14.42     1.12     3.71    26.47     8.90P    1.17R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         11   13   -2      -0.49    46.93     0.59    53.08     9.36   -10.72     0.05     0.21     3.06     0.72P   15.67R    0.42  
Shrewsbury           10   13   -4      -0.32    47.70    -3.50    57.70     9.17    -6.71     0.11     0.60     7.31     1.89P    6.34R    0.10  
Rotherham             9   12   +3      -2.35    28.55    -0.13    66.86    10.23    13.44     2.45     7.03    33.97    14.18P    1.36R    0.01  
Burton_Albion         9   12   +2      -1.03    40.86     1.00    67.22     9.59    12.93     1.98     6.16    33.66    13.23P    0.85R    0.00  
MK_Dons              10   12   -3      -0.40    47.37    -0.75    52.40     9.64   -13.33     0.05     0.22     3.16     0.72P   18.31R    0.54  
Gillingham           10   10   +1      -3.17    23.93     1.92    55.96     9.49    -0.83     0.10     0.48     5.89     1.51P    9.72R    0.18  
Accrington_Stanley   10   10   -5      -1.57    36.89    -1.61    49.56     9.15   -16.93     0.01     0.06     1.18     0.21P   26.29R    0.93  
Rochdale             10   10   -7      -0.75    44.43    -1.84    47.53     9.00   -22.73     0.01     0.03     0.66     0.12P   34.80R    1.51  
Portsmouth            8    9   +0      -4.10    14.24    -3.38    67.70     9.98    14.32     2.59     7.50    36.65    15.64P    0.97R    0.00  
Tranmere             10    9   -5      -0.86    43.56     1.93    44.26     9.41   -24.41     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.06P   49.10R    3.13  
Southend             10    4  -14      -7.31     3.57    -9.94    40.56     9.04   -32.20     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   65.35R    7.19  
AFC_Wimbledon        11    3  -10      -7.92     1.95    -3.25    39.73     8.71   -23.02     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   67.61R    7.05  
Bolton                9   -9  -23      -4.09    12.69   -14.47    23.36     8.96   -48.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.05R   78.92  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Carlisle 1 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter           11   22   +6       3.98    80.17     1.70    76.09     9.51    15.24    15.09    38.12    69.03    46.26P    0.02R    0.00  
Crewe            11   22   +5       6.19    90.48     3.85    72.18     9.68     8.30     7.81    23.70    53.03    29.95P    0.12R    0.03  
Cheltenham       11   21  +10       4.57    83.25     8.01    70.40     9.62    12.30     5.80    19.54    47.33    25.50P    0.17R    0.03  
Forest_Green     11   21   +6       4.39    82.86     3.66    74.21     9.41    13.96    10.82    30.76    62.09    38.59P    0.05R    0.01  
Swindon          11   20   +5       2.85    72.70     1.90    72.64     9.68    12.10     8.60    26.03    55.82    33.19P    0.08R    0.01  
Newport_County   11   20   +5       5.05    86.25     4.95    70.81     9.47     9.59     5.72    19.47    47.96    25.81P    0.13R    0.02  
Grimsby          11   18   +6       3.41    77.15     6.50    64.11     9.43     3.72     1.38     6.37    23.36     9.72P    0.91R    0.22  
Bradford         11   18   +5       0.12    50.96     0.92    77.43     9.87    22.15    20.17    45.22    74.06    54.02P    0.03R    0.01  
Colchester       11   16   +3      -0.68    44.52     0.61    69.38     9.49    11.28     4.55    16.20    42.93    23.25P    0.23R    0.06  
Crawley_Town     11   16   +2       1.76    65.23     3.33    59.58     9.46    -4.58     0.49     2.69    11.64     4.43P    2.96R    0.92  
Cambridge_Utd    11   15   +3       1.93    67.43     5.57    60.53     9.30     0.17     0.56     2.94    13.21     4.89P    2.25R    0.62  
Plymouth         11   15   +2      -2.60    29.59    -1.84    72.26    10.03    15.94     9.05    26.27    55.30    35.10P    0.19R    0.03  
Northampton      11   15   +2      -0.89    42.89     0.77    66.46     9.68     7.36     2.68    10.63    31.85    15.96P    0.55R    0.15  
Walsall          11   15   -3      -0.81    43.68    -4.22    68.77     9.85     5.79     4.17    15.18    39.87    21.89P    0.36R    0.09  
Port_Vale        11   14   -3       1.01    59.85    -0.26    55.91     9.19   -11.16     0.14     0.91     5.38     1.79P    6.38R    2.05  
Carlisle         11   14   -5      -0.62    45.80    -4.31    62.21     9.68    -4.69     0.86     4.51    17.78     7.46P    1.94R    0.55  
Macclesfield     11   13   -1       0.96    59.74     3.29    49.77     8.93   -16.99     0.02     0.11     1.38     0.32P   18.25R    7.47  
Salford_City     11   11   -8       0.31    54.70    -0.87    41.83     8.96   -35.56     0.00     0.02     0.21     0.04P   53.41R   32.02  
Mansfield        11   10   -4      -7.36     5.65    -7.42    63.09     9.45     3.73     1.02     5.21    20.49     9.86P    1.26R    0.33  
Oldham           11   10   -4      -4.99    14.51    -3.92    61.43     9.61     1.38     0.70     3.92    16.29     7.29P    2.30R    0.70  
Leyton_Orient    11   10   -6      -1.96    34.48    -1.16    45.45     9.38   -25.55     0.01     0.07     0.59     0.16P   36.14R   18.79  
Morecambe        11    7  -10      -4.64    14.68    -4.73    43.57     9.02   -27.26     0.00     0.03     0.26     0.07P   43.89R   23.84  
Scunthorpe       11    6   -8     -10.05     1.46    -9.45    57.02    10.18    -3.43     0.35     1.99     9.11     4.13P    6.81R    2.55  
Stevenage        11    5   -8      -9.16     1.70    -6.87    48.66     9.21   -13.78     0.01     0.12     1.04     0.32P   21.58R    9.48  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 October 2019, AFC_Fylde 0 4 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Bromley            14   29   +7       7.73    92.11     3.98    76.41     9.10    12.15    10.10    57.36    19.51P    0.23R    0.00  
Halifax            14   28  +11       8.37    94.09    10.23    76.57     8.89    18.02     9.71    58.99    20.34P    0.14R    0.00  
Yeovil             14   28  +10       2.96    70.25     1.20    86.80     9.09    32.48    50.14    90.91    63.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking             14   25   +8       5.56    83.68     7.66    67.87     9.52     6.55     2.38    24.09     7.01P    2.77R    0.09  
Barnet             14   23   +4       2.49    67.84     1.96    72.08     8.90    11.76     3.95    38.90    12.40P    0.68R    0.01  
Dag_&_Red          14   23   +3       2.99    71.02     1.73    67.75     8.86     4.38     1.49    21.90     5.83P    2.29R    0.07  
Dover_Athletic     14   23   +2       2.65    68.83     0.23    67.70     9.01     3.09     1.84    22.18     6.15P    2.47R    0.09  
Barrow             14   22   +6       1.38    60.24     3.87    67.21     9.00     7.94     1.57    21.33     5.81P    2.56R    0.08  
Solihull_Moors     14   21   +6      -1.26    40.74     1.35    71.85     9.10    16.36     4.21    39.62    13.84P    0.82R    0.02  
Notts_County       14   20   +5      -4.24    21.85    -2.74    76.93     9.32    24.78    11.97    61.93    29.58P    0.28R    0.00  
Torquay            14   19   +2       1.46    61.07     4.82    57.64     9.61    -6.75     0.23     4.72     1.11P   20.55R    2.13  
Harrogate_Town     14   19   +0      -1.60    38.88    -2.08    65.16     9.15     3.16     0.93    15.68     4.32P    4.73R    0.18  
Boreham_Wood       14   18   +5      -1.92    36.64     3.93    61.70     8.87     4.84     0.40     8.50     2.20P    8.36R    0.41  
Maidenhead         14   18   +3       0.50    54.70     5.55    56.65     8.84    -4.91     0.07     2.86     0.55P   20.99R    1.77  
Eastleigh          14   17   -3      -0.62    46.16    -0.48    59.50     8.92    -5.19     0.17     5.19     1.11P   13.75R    0.96  
Hartlepool         14   17   -4      -1.12    42.64    -2.36    56.65     8.85   -10.62     0.07     2.77     0.58P   22.09R    1.97  
Stockport          14   17   -9       3.00    72.62    -0.54    48.52     8.92   -28.44     0.01     0.40     0.07P   58.31R   11.98  
AFC_Fylde          14   16   -9      -4.61    19.88   -11.04    63.05     9.13    -4.35     0.45    10.58     3.00P    7.50R    0.39  
Sutton_United      14   15   -2      -3.38    26.83    -0.81    57.26     8.92    -4.48     0.08     3.21     0.78P   19.35R    1.58  
Wrexham            14   14   -5      -5.89    13.26    -6.09    59.82     8.85    -1.91     0.15     5.38     1.37P   12.38R    0.86  
Aldershot          14   14   -7      -1.33    41.03    -1.49    50.36     8.53   -17.86     0.01     0.39     0.08P   48.17R    7.45  
Chesterfield       14   12   -8      -7.40     8.23    -8.25    54.38     8.92   -10.48     0.04     1.56     0.36P   29.87R    3.56  
Ebbsfleet_United   14   10  -10      -7.43     7.76    -7.24    54.42     9.06    -9.40     0.03     1.53     0.34P   30.02R    3.69  
Chorley            14   10  -15      -2.10    35.99    -3.39    37.59     8.53   -41.12     0.00     0.01     0.00    91.67R   62.71