Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 3 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 30 September 2019, Man_Utd 1 1 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         7   21  +13       5.24    96.01     2.00    89.07     7.66    58.20    42.21    91.53    97.95    99.37    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          7   16  +20      -1.47    28.16     4.11    90.56     6.78    83.07    56.47    95.68    99.15    99.79    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         7   14   +8       3.47    83.69     6.64    60.94     8.67    13.67     0.07     0.88     9.39    22.71    55.33     0.16R    0.02  
Arsenal           7   12   +1       0.81    58.39    -1.49    65.27     8.77    18.08     0.25     2.42    20.76    41.80    73.41     0.03R    0.00  
West_Ham          7   12   +1       2.78    77.86     1.89    51.60     8.50    -5.92     0.00     0.05     1.19     3.96    16.11     2.29R    0.24  
Tottenham         7   11   +5      -1.77    29.09    -0.04    69.88     8.45    31.43     0.76     6.67    42.46    64.98    88.68     0.00R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   11   +1      -1.15    37.15    -3.02    64.47     8.60    18.09     0.18     1.86    18.05    37.74    71.03     0.05R    0.00  
Bournemouth       7   11   +1       2.19    73.48     3.01    48.45     8.60   -11.21     0.00     0.03     0.55     1.94     9.51     5.92R    0.93  
Crystal_Palace    7   11   -1       1.42    66.44    -0.83    48.55     8.41   -10.37     0.00     0.02     0.44     1.78     8.95     5.03R    0.74  
Man_Utd           7    9   +2      -2.89    21.92    -1.42    60.94     8.50    16.20     0.06     0.84     9.31    22.81    56.00     0.15R    0.01  
Burnley           7    9   +1       0.65    58.25     3.16    44.34     8.24   -12.37     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.56     3.65    11.61R    2.21  
Sheff_Utd         7    8   +0       0.62    59.10     3.66    42.45     8.60   -14.61     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.41     2.64    18.45R    4.55  
Wolverhampton     7    7   -2      -1.93    29.98    -1.03    44.71     8.33   -11.62     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.49     3.76    11.54R    2.06  
Southampton       7    7   -4      -0.13    50.33     0.09    42.03     8.32   -18.58     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.28     2.05    19.28R    4.43  
Everton           7    7   -6      -2.80    21.75    -5.99    46.10     8.45   -13.06     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.98     5.68     8.77R    1.53  
Brighton          7    6   -5      -0.99    39.32     0.03    36.72     7.87   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.42    40.44R   12.08  
Norwich           7    6   -7       0.51    58.13     1.97    38.01     8.79   -29.34     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.16     1.10    37.47R   12.94  
Aston_Villa       7    5   -3      -2.20    27.41     1.65    35.10     8.40   -27.05     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.41    49.20R   19.68  
Newcastle         7    5   -9      -2.47    23.26    -5.15    40.48     8.20   -20.55     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.15     1.27    24.19R    5.63  
Watford           7    2  -16      -4.53     7.19    -9.23    32.01     8.06   -40.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    65.42R   32.94  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 2 October 2019, Barnsley 2 2 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Swansea         10   21   +8       5.27    87.99     5.00    77.97     9.78    19.17    14.29    27.64    67.74    37.80P    0.06R    0.00  
Leeds_United    10   20   +9       3.87    80.57     5.50    79.99     9.68    24.66    19.42    35.47    75.61    46.75P    0.03R    0.00  
West_Brom       10   19   +6       1.79    65.05     0.60    81.02     9.97    25.29    23.27    40.41    77.81    51.45P    0.03R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   10   19   +6       5.06    87.21     5.60    72.71     9.82    12.58     5.48    12.73    47.03    20.43P    0.32R    0.02  
Fulham          10   18  +10       1.05    58.52     5.20    77.20    10.36    24.84    14.69    27.76    65.24    38.31P    0.12R    0.02  
Preston         10   18   +7       2.93    74.13     5.00    72.67     9.97    14.79     6.33    13.83    46.90    21.52P    0.35R    0.03  
Bristol_City    10   17   +4       2.77    73.50     3.21    71.40     9.93    11.37     4.80    11.14    41.53    18.23P    0.50R    0.05  
Charlton        10   17   +3       3.72    79.53     3.48    62.45    10.11    -2.52     0.83     2.25    14.06     4.66P    4.29R    0.67  
Sheff_Wed       10   16   +6       0.93    58.35     3.94    67.31     9.75     8.92     1.99     5.17    27.01    10.32P    1.20R    0.09  
Cardiff         10   16   +2       0.40    53.49    -0.78    69.35    10.30     7.92     3.64     8.56    34.52    15.24P    1.03R    0.13  
QPR             10   16   -3       4.34    83.95     0.28    57.06     9.59   -16.36     0.17     0.51     4.88     1.16P   11.48R    2.13  
Blackburn       10   14   +0       0.71    56.98     0.76    61.72     9.82    -2.47     0.54     1.64    11.93     3.74P    4.97R    0.77  
Hull            10   13   +1      -1.03    41.70     0.62    61.75     9.97    -0.46     0.60     1.82    12.76     4.16P    5.13R    0.85  
Birmingham      10   13   -4       1.03    60.54    -1.56    57.39     9.55   -11.09     0.15     0.50     5.08     1.37P   10.83R    1.96  
Brentford       10   12   +1      -2.80    26.44    -0.66    65.86     9.88     7.70     1.45     4.00    22.74     8.90P    1.88R    0.22  
Derby           10   12   -2      -2.64    28.17    -3.37    66.64     9.96     5.79     1.72     4.57    24.94     9.78P    1.70R    0.19  
Luton           10   11   -3      -1.70    36.44    -1.23    54.65    10.32   -12.73     0.16     0.48     4.29     1.29P   18.50R    4.53  
Millwall        10   11   -5      -0.40    47.68    -1.71    53.31     9.25   -14.47     0.04     0.16     1.92     0.48P   19.67R    4.28  
Wigan           10   11   -6      -0.96    42.37    -3.49    54.51     9.48   -14.28     0.05     0.20     2.72     0.69P   17.20R    3.78  
Middlesbrough   10   10   -4      -4.61    14.76    -5.42    60.95     9.47    -1.11     0.36     1.08     9.56     3.35P    4.88R    0.76  
Reading         10    8   -5      -2.67    27.60    -0.34    48.74     9.41   -18.04     0.01     0.03     0.70     0.14P   36.19R   11.51  
Barnsley        10    6  -10      -5.13    11.72    -6.23    46.55     9.91   -23.18     0.01     0.04     0.65     0.17P   46.43R   18.31  
Huddersfield    10    5   -9      -6.01     7.23    -5.07    43.99     9.58   -23.59     0.00     0.01     0.22     0.04P   56.13R   24.90  
Stoke           10    2  -12      -9.78     0.47    -9.31    43.81     9.34   -22.75     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.03P   57.07R   24.78  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Bristol_Rovers 1 0 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              10   24  +15       5.83    91.19     8.18    85.71     9.57    38.15    46.02    66.15    92.78    74.23P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              11   22   +8       5.51    87.93     5.88    64.69     9.07     3.62     0.97     3.29    22.89     6.62P    0.92R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town       10   20   +7       3.81    80.28     3.27    72.22     9.47    15.46     5.59    14.34    53.32    23.39P    0.16R    0.00  
Coventry             10   20   +6       5.10    87.79     4.28    67.76     9.30     7.73     2.15     6.33    34.19    11.84P    0.52R    0.00  
Sunderland           10   19   +4       0.94    57.56    -2.75    80.02     9.35    26.83    20.21    41.09    81.85    53.85P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool            11   19   +3       2.94    73.66     1.54    66.14     8.95     5.88     1.29     4.08    27.60     8.99P    0.65R    0.01  
Bristol_Rovers       11   18   +2       2.17    67.92     0.76    62.82     8.96     1.27     0.52     1.85    16.84     4.87P    1.85R    0.01  
Peterborough         10   17  +11       0.05    50.26     5.78    74.96     9.54    29.22     9.38    22.82    66.13    34.94P    0.07R    0.00  
Doncaster             9   16   +4       1.72    65.36     1.07    71.96     9.63    16.15     5.27    13.76    52.50    23.58P    0.21R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           11   15   +7      -1.16    40.70     5.42    65.15     9.30    14.33     1.17     3.82    26.43     8.94P    1.16R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         11   13   -2      -0.53    46.57     0.54    53.21     9.36   -10.53     0.07     0.23     3.23     0.74P   15.34R    0.42  
Shrewsbury           10   13   -4      -0.24    48.35    -3.41    57.56     9.12    -6.92     0.10     0.54     6.86     1.82P    6.23R    0.08  
Rotherham             9   12   +3      -2.35    28.66    -0.16    66.93    10.34    13.53     2.65     7.41    34.38    14.67P    1.31R    0.01  
Burton_Albion         9   12   +2      -1.04    40.79     0.98    67.20     9.60    12.96     1.93     6.22    33.80    13.43P    0.86R    0.01  
MK_Dons              10   12   -3      -0.35    48.00    -0.70    52.46     9.70   -13.26     0.04     0.20     3.24     0.74P   18.50R    0.63  
Gillingham           10   10   +1      -3.24    23.52     1.84    56.16     9.57    -0.42     0.11     0.50     6.42     1.69P    9.64R    0.17  
Accrington_Stanley   10   10   -5      -1.57    37.06    -1.61    49.62     9.12   -16.84     0.02     0.06     1.23     0.25P   26.16R    0.95  
Rochdale             10   10   -7      -0.74    44.83    -1.84    47.37     9.00   -23.05     0.00     0.01     0.63     0.12P   35.66R    1.60  
Portsmouth            8    9   +0      -4.02    14.71    -3.26    67.34    10.06    13.71     2.52     7.28    35.16    15.17P    1.14R    0.02  
Tranmere             10    9   -5      -0.84    43.90     2.05    44.08     9.33   -24.77     0.00     0.01     0.37     0.08P   49.79R    3.33  
Southend             10    4  -14      -7.30     3.77    -9.91    40.58     9.05   -32.17     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.03P   65.22R    7.27  
AFC_Wimbledon        11    3  -10      -8.00     1.99    -3.42    39.94     8.66   -22.71     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P   66.76R    6.74  
Bolton                9   -9  -23      -4.13    12.40   -14.53    23.43     9.06   -48.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.81R   78.73  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Carlisle 1 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter           11   22   +6       3.96    80.01     1.65    76.11     9.64    15.28    15.56    38.68    68.79    46.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe            11   22   +5       6.19    90.43     3.83    72.31     9.62     8.53     7.78    24.28    53.56    30.45P    0.09R    0.02  
Cheltenham       11   21  +10       4.51    82.66     7.94    70.55     9.54    12.50     5.68    19.70    47.86    25.88P    0.13R    0.02  
Forest_Green     11   21   +6       4.42    83.01     3.71    74.17     9.40    13.91    10.51    30.69    62.07    38.24P    0.03R    0.01  
Swindon          11   20   +5       2.89    72.79     1.99    72.53     9.61    11.91     8.33    25.52    55.47    32.77P    0.08R    0.02  
Newport_County   11   20   +5       5.10    86.75     5.00    70.72     9.30     9.46     5.17    18.45    47.67    24.84P    0.13R    0.03  
Grimsby          11   18   +6       3.43    77.36     6.53    64.14     9.35     3.78     1.29     6.33    23.14     9.67P    0.80R    0.20  
Bradford         11   18   +5       0.05    50.36     0.82    77.70     9.92    22.47    21.32    46.28    74.88    55.09P    0.04R    0.01  
Colchester       11   16   +3      -0.62    45.16     0.67    69.40     9.36    11.27     4.33    16.09    42.75    23.32P    0.19R    0.05  
Crawley_Town     11   16   +2       1.83    65.47     3.40    59.49     9.47    -4.69     0.53     2.59    11.36     4.32P    3.12R    0.90  
Cambridge_Utd    11   15   +3       1.96    67.53     5.63    60.35     9.34    -0.10     0.48     2.79    12.91     4.94P    2.48R    0.71  
Plymouth         11   15   +2      -2.62    29.52    -1.89    72.29    10.06    16.01     9.20    26.28    55.31    34.96P    0.19R    0.04  
Northampton      11   15   +2      -0.82    43.61     0.84    66.51     9.68     7.40     2.59    10.61    32.28    15.89P    0.56R    0.15  
Walsall          11   15   -3      -0.83    43.62    -4.23    68.84     9.86     5.89     4.16    15.13    40.27    22.22P    0.36R    0.09  
Port_Vale        11   14   -3       0.94    59.34    -0.37    55.95     9.21   -11.13     0.14     0.94     5.43     1.83P    6.30R    2.05  
Carlisle         11   14   -5      -0.64    45.56    -4.33    62.14     9.60    -4.76     0.87     4.33    17.38     7.43P    1.84R    0.49  
Macclesfield     11   13   -1       0.99    60.30     3.34    49.70     8.90   -17.13     0.01     0.14     1.25     0.29P   18.62R    7.56  
Salford_City     11   11   -8       0.32    54.90    -0.87    41.66     8.90   -35.76     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.04P   54.10R   33.13  
Mansfield        11   10   -4      -7.34     5.46    -7.36    62.88     9.45     3.50     1.00     5.11    19.68     9.50P    1.32R    0.39  
Oldham           11   10   -4      -5.03    14.07    -3.96    61.58     9.64     1.55     0.74     4.00    16.85     7.34P    2.14R    0.71  
Leyton_Orient    11   10   -6      -1.97    34.72    -1.15    45.45     9.37   -25.62     0.00     0.08     0.64     0.17P   36.10R   18.43  
Morecambe        11    7  -10      -4.72    14.29    -4.89    43.90     9.06   -26.78     0.00     0.02     0.29     0.06P   42.36R   22.89  
Scunthorpe       11    6   -8     -10.04     1.53    -9.46    56.89    10.17    -3.58     0.30     1.86     8.91     3.95P    7.06R    2.72  
Stevenage        11    5   -8      -9.14     1.60    -6.82    48.54     9.19   -13.91     0.01     0.10     1.10     0.33P   21.94R    9.38  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 October 2019, AFC_Fylde 0 4 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Bromley            14   29   +7       7.69    92.03     3.91    76.40     9.14    12.17     9.88    57.31    19.48P    0.22R    0.00  
Halifax            14   28  +11       8.31    94.04    10.15    76.64     8.84    18.17     9.90    59.64    20.72P    0.14R    0.00  
Yeovil             14   28  +10       3.03    70.60     1.34    86.76     9.15    32.41    50.03    90.63    63.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking             14   25   +8       5.63    84.05     7.82    67.70     9.60     6.37     2.35    23.96     6.61P    3.08R    0.14  
Barnet             14   23   +4       2.49    68.06     1.96    72.07     8.91    11.72     3.94    39.38    12.54P    0.69R    0.01  
Dag_&_Red          14   23   +3       2.99    71.05     1.70    67.82     8.94     4.47     1.53    22.48     5.94P    2.21R    0.08  
Dover_Athletic     14   23   +2       2.67    68.73     0.25    67.68     9.05     2.98     1.78    22.22     6.14P    2.52R    0.06  
Barrow             14   22   +6       1.37    60.26     3.88    67.06     8.98     7.74     1.48    20.99     5.87P    2.64R    0.08  
Solihull_Moors     14   21   +6      -1.22    40.88     1.42    71.93     9.06    16.46     4.38    40.00    14.37P    0.78R    0.01  
Notts_County       14   20   +5      -4.14    22.55    -2.59    76.70     9.40    24.45    12.02    60.78    29.16P    0.27R    0.00  
Torquay            14   19   +2       1.39    60.57     4.71    57.71     9.49    -6.59     0.24     4.62     1.08P   20.18R    2.05  
Harrogate_Town     14   19   +0      -1.66    38.16    -2.19    65.26     9.08     3.38     0.99    15.61     4.20P    4.44R    0.18  
Boreham_Wood       14   18   +5      -1.86    37.10     4.01    61.70     8.93     4.79     0.35     8.67     2.31P    8.48R    0.42  
Maidenhead         14   18   +3       0.55    55.09     5.63    56.56     8.78    -5.00     0.07     2.80     0.55P   21.43R    1.64  
Eastleigh          14   17   -3      -0.68    45.99    -0.55    59.53     8.85    -5.12     0.14     5.04     1.04P   13.61R    1.05  
Hartlepool         14   17   -4      -1.10    42.76    -2.31    56.58     8.77   -10.74     0.08     2.54     0.53P   22.44R    1.92  
Stockport          14   17   -9       2.93    72.15    -0.64    48.72     9.10   -28.21     0.02     0.48     0.09P   57.54R   12.17  
AFC_Fylde          14   16   -9      -4.50    20.38   -10.88    62.95     9.15    -4.57     0.48    10.31     2.84P    7.92R    0.44  
Sutton_United      14   15   -2      -3.44    26.21    -0.90    57.24     8.93    -4.46     0.08     3.48     0.77P   19.56R    1.56  
Wrexham            14   14   -5      -5.86    13.63    -6.09    59.84     8.88    -1.89     0.20     5.48     1.40P   12.45R    0.94  
Aldershot          14   14   -7      -1.43    40.52    -1.61    50.49     8.55   -17.62     0.01     0.44     0.08P   47.67R    7.48  
Chesterfield       14   12   -8      -7.32     8.54    -8.14    54.25     8.93   -10.74     0.04     1.49     0.35P   30.63R    3.71  
Ebbsfleet_United   14   10  -10      -7.52     7.54    -7.36    54.47     9.04    -9.29     0.03     1.66     0.36P   29.99R    3.94  
Chorley            14   10  -15      -2.17    35.28    -3.51    37.78     8.58   -40.86     0.00     0.01     0.00P   91.10R   62.10