Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 2 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 30 September 2019, Man_Utd 1 1 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         7   21  +13       5.22    96.11     1.98    89.11     7.63    58.20    42.20    91.78    98.09    99.49    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          7   16  +20      -1.46    28.26     4.13    90.53     6.85    83.16    56.34    95.40    99.12    99.78    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         7   14   +8       3.48    83.94     6.64    60.96     8.59    13.72     0.05     0.82     9.00    22.47    55.52     0.17R    0.01  
Arsenal           7   12   +1       0.83    58.77    -1.44    65.31     8.78    18.18     0.28     2.58    20.63    41.92    73.35     0.05R    0.00  
West_Ham          7   12   +1       2.77    77.57     1.89    51.59     8.50    -5.95     0.01     0.05     1.20     3.89    15.90     2.28R    0.24  
Tottenham         7   11   +5      -1.77    29.24    -0.08    70.00     8.46    31.73     0.84     6.64    42.94    65.48    88.59     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   11   +1      -1.19    36.72    -3.10    64.60     8.60    18.32     0.20     1.87    18.37    38.05    71.90     0.06R    0.01  
Bournemouth       7   11   +1       2.16    73.12     2.95    48.51     8.62   -11.12     0.00     0.02     0.58     2.02     9.57     5.72R    0.92  
Crystal_Palace    7   11   -1       1.37    65.72    -0.88    48.53     8.46   -10.46     0.00     0.02     0.50     1.79     9.04     5.20R    0.76  
Man_Utd           7    9   +2      -2.84    22.20    -1.34    60.76     8.49    15.85     0.08     0.81     8.85    21.83    55.11     0.17R    0.02  
Burnley           7    9   +1       0.63    57.93     3.11    44.34     8.20   -12.42     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.54     3.53    11.69R    2.14  
Sheff_Utd         7    8   +0       0.67    59.71     3.77    42.15     8.57   -15.17     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.39     2.56    19.32R    4.93  
Wolverhampton     7    7   -2      -1.93    30.20    -1.01    44.56     8.36   -11.83     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.55     3.77    11.97R    2.20  
Southampton       7    7   -4      -0.11    50.48     0.11    42.06     8.29   -18.49     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.28     2.12    18.82R    4.52  
Everton           7    7   -6      -2.76    22.11    -5.93    46.14     8.51   -13.02     0.00     0.00     0.24     1.15     5.75     9.20R    1.61  
Brighton          7    6   -5      -0.97    39.69     0.09    36.72     7.86   -23.96     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.39    40.32R   12.14  
Norwich           7    6   -7       0.55    58.68     2.01    38.03     8.81   -29.37     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.17     1.07    37.34R   12.81  
Aston_Villa       7    5   -3      -2.22    27.42     1.61    35.07     8.35   -27.09     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.43    49.35R   19.94  
Newcastle         7    5   -9      -2.49    23.12    -5.17    40.68     8.14   -20.29     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14     1.35    23.38R    5.31  
Watford           7    2  -16      -4.58     7.32    -9.32    32.10     8.07   -39.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    64.96R   32.46  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 2 October 2019, Barnsley 2 2 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Swansea         10   21   +8       5.28    88.20     5.01    77.90     9.76    19.10    14.01    27.54    67.55    37.58P    0.05R    0.00  
Leeds_United    10   20   +9       3.93    80.98     5.56    79.77     9.67    24.35    18.94    34.85    74.67    45.78P    0.04R    0.00  
West_Brom       10   19   +6       1.77    65.05     0.57    81.18     9.99    25.49    24.25    41.00    77.99    52.01P    0.03R    0.01  
Nott'm_Forest   10   19   +6       5.06    87.29     5.64    72.54     9.79    12.27     5.44    12.59    46.16    20.03P    0.29R    0.03  
Fulham          10   18  +10       1.08    58.93     5.25    77.20    10.39    24.85    14.70    27.78    65.19    38.63P    0.13R    0.01  
Preston         10   18   +7       3.05    75.13     5.18    72.34     9.99    14.36     6.02    13.25    45.99    20.83P    0.41R    0.03  
Bristol_City    10   17   +4       2.80    73.43     3.26    71.35    10.00    11.35     4.74    11.19    41.84    18.40P    0.54R    0.05  
Charlton        10   17   +3       3.79    80.07     3.58    62.01    10.09    -3.14     0.71     2.05    13.19     4.26P    4.93R    0.77  
Sheff_Wed       10   16   +6       0.83    57.26     3.80    67.70     9.82     9.48     2.24     5.87    28.51    11.14P    1.08R    0.11  
Cardiff         10   16   +2       0.44    53.88    -0.77    69.41    10.26     8.04     3.69     8.60    34.82    15.46P    0.96R    0.10  
QPR             10   16   -3       4.36    84.11     0.35    56.96     9.61   -16.62     0.16     0.53     4.96     1.14P   11.85R    2.25  
Blackburn       10   14   +0       0.77    57.70     0.82    61.62     9.80    -2.58     0.53     1.58    11.81     3.64P    4.92R    0.77  
Hull            10   13   +1      -1.12    40.64     0.46    62.11    10.02     0.13     0.65     2.06    13.67     4.60P    4.57R    0.77  
Birmingham      10   13   -4       0.99    59.95    -1.60    57.31     9.51   -11.19     0.15     0.47     5.01     1.32P   10.73R    1.92  
Brentford       10   12   +1      -2.80    26.83    -0.66    65.74     9.82     7.50     1.40     3.86    22.34     8.63P    1.91R    0.24  
Derby           10   12   -2      -2.70    27.83    -3.44    66.77     9.95     5.95     1.79     4.71    25.43    10.15P    1.62R    0.17  
Luton           10   11   -3      -1.71    36.19    -1.24    54.79    10.32   -12.56     0.14     0.47     4.24     1.22P   18.31R    4.60  
Millwall        10   11   -5      -0.39    47.88    -1.71    53.27     9.28   -14.53     0.03     0.13     1.95     0.50P   20.03R    4.77  
Wigan           10   11   -6      -0.98    42.19    -3.53    54.49     9.44   -14.27     0.04     0.21     2.69     0.68P   17.26R    3.81  
Middlesbrough   10   10   -4      -4.67    14.31    -5.52    61.15     9.42    -0.78     0.33     1.16    10.15     3.58P    4.61R    0.74  
Reading         10    8   -5      -2.64    27.65    -0.30    48.82     9.45   -17.96     0.01     0.06     0.76     0.18P   36.12R   11.49  
Barnsley        10    6  -10      -5.07    11.97    -6.18    46.38     9.79   -23.42     0.00     0.03     0.58     0.15P   47.54R   18.63  
Huddersfield    10    5   -9      -6.01     7.22    -5.08    44.10     9.61   -23.43     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.07P   56.05R   24.54  
Stoke           10    2  -12      -9.86     0.50    -9.45    44.04     9.34   -22.38     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P   56.02R   24.21  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Bristol_Rovers 1 0 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              10   24  +15       5.79    90.91     8.13    85.90     9.60    38.33    46.76    66.74    92.90    74.61P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              11   22   +8       5.50    87.96     5.90    64.55     9.05     3.44     0.93     3.06    22.41     6.41P    0.99R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       10   20   +7       3.81    80.37     3.24    72.11     9.45    15.33     5.45    14.05    52.89    22.75P    0.13R    0.00  
Coventry             10   20   +6       5.00    87.29     4.11    68.06     9.32     8.24     2.26     6.60    35.11    12.31P    0.47R    0.00  
Sunderland           10   19   +4       1.00    58.05    -2.69    80.10     9.26    26.92    19.89    41.30    82.35    54.49P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool            11   19   +3       3.04    74.13     1.67    65.88     8.96     5.45     1.14     3.73    26.40     8.38P    0.77R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       11   18   +2       2.14    67.92     0.74    62.72     8.96     1.17     0.50     1.88    16.33     4.71P    1.68R    0.01  
Peterborough         10   17  +11       0.05    50.01     5.79    74.92     9.50    29.11     9.06    22.34    66.10    34.77P    0.07R    0.00  
Doncaster             9   16   +4       1.76    65.94     1.12    71.92     9.67    16.09     5.13    13.59    52.22    23.39P    0.25R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           11   15   +7      -1.25    39.76     5.28    65.38     9.31    14.71     1.24     4.03    27.22     9.25P    1.16R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         11   13   -2      -0.43    47.24     0.71    52.89     9.29   -10.96     0.04     0.17     2.84     0.64P   15.93R    0.39  
Shrewsbury           10   13   -4      -0.21    48.83    -3.36    57.50     9.17    -7.05     0.13     0.54     7.12     1.77P    6.49R    0.10  
Rotherham             9   12   +3      -2.35    28.85    -0.15    66.93    10.35    13.53     2.59     7.31    34.08    14.58P    1.35R    0.01  
Burton_Albion         9   12   +2      -1.07    40.49     0.94    67.44     9.60    13.34     2.13     6.55    34.32    13.56P    0.75R    0.01  
MK_Dons              10   12   -3      -0.41    47.50    -0.77    52.50     9.69   -13.18     0.05     0.21     3.28     0.80P   18.29R    0.51  
Gillingham           10   10   +1      -3.21    23.68     1.91    56.01     9.51    -0.72     0.11     0.41     5.89     1.58P    9.71R    0.16  
Accrington_Stanley   10   10   -5      -1.56    37.25    -1.60    49.54     9.07   -16.99     0.01     0.05     1.21     0.25P   25.99R    0.87  
Rochdale             10   10   -7      -0.83    44.14    -1.92    47.56     9.10   -22.83     0.00     0.02     0.75     0.14P   34.72R    1.49  
Portsmouth            8    9   +0      -4.06    14.60    -3.32    67.53    10.06    14.02     2.58     7.40    36.04    15.54P    1.01R    0.01  
Tranmere             10    9   -5      -0.85    43.60     2.00    44.23     9.35   -24.48     0.00     0.02     0.40     0.07P   49.06R    3.11  
Southend             10    4  -14      -7.26     3.76    -9.85    40.35     9.04   -32.55     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   66.26R    7.26  
AFC_Wimbledon        11    3  -10      -7.98     2.01    -3.34    39.85     8.73   -22.87     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   66.89R    6.93  
Bolton                9   -9  -23      -4.12    12.69   -14.51    23.41     8.89   -48.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.01R   79.13  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Carlisle 1 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter           11   22   +6       3.96    80.26     1.65    76.13     9.46    15.32    14.98    38.32    69.27    46.25P    0.03R    0.01  
Crewe            11   22   +5       6.17    90.28     3.82    72.33     9.66     8.55     7.82    24.39    54.13    30.63P    0.10R    0.02  
Cheltenham       11   21  +10       4.65    83.40     8.14    70.26     9.45    12.10     5.38    18.56    46.34    24.62P    0.12R    0.03  
Forest_Green     11   21   +6       4.52    83.69     3.81    74.00     9.41    13.66    10.36    29.98    61.11    37.82P    0.03R    0.00  
Swindon          11   20   +5       2.85    72.72     1.91    72.68     9.54    12.15     8.58    25.93    55.96    33.35P    0.06R    0.01  
Newport_County   11   20   +5       5.06    86.24     4.94    70.72     9.40     9.47     5.47    18.93    47.51    25.40P    0.14R    0.03  
Grimsby          11   18   +6       3.39    77.36     6.49    64.16     9.40     3.85     1.39     6.37    23.35     9.72P    0.85R    0.20  
Bradford         11   18   +5      -0.01    49.66     0.70    77.97     9.85    22.92    21.79    47.66    75.83    56.40P    0.02R    0.01  
Colchester       11   16   +3      -0.61    44.83     0.67    69.35     9.42    11.20     4.21    15.68    42.96    23.02P    0.22R    0.05  
Crawley_Town     11   16   +2       1.81    65.39     3.37    59.48     9.47    -4.76     0.47     2.63    11.35     4.28P    3.02R    0.98  
Cambridge_Utd    11   15   +3       2.06    68.50     5.78    60.13     9.23    -0.46     0.44     2.53    12.18     4.47P    2.45R    0.73  
Plymouth         11   15   +2      -2.63    29.20    -1.88    72.25    10.07    15.92     9.09    26.36    55.24    34.93P    0.18R    0.04  
Northampton      11   15   +2      -0.85    43.42     0.83    66.53     9.67     7.35     2.63    10.65    32.21    16.06P    0.64R    0.19  
Walsall          11   15   -3      -0.93    42.79    -4.38    69.18     9.75     6.30     4.23    15.52    41.43    22.76P    0.33R    0.08  
Port_Vale        11   14   -3       1.02    59.78    -0.27    55.72     9.14   -11.44     0.10     0.77     5.05     1.54P    6.33R    1.99  
Carlisle         11   14   -5      -0.63    45.47    -4.33    62.27     9.61    -4.58     0.90     4.54    17.73     7.49P    1.85R    0.52  
Macclesfield     11   13   -1       0.94    59.73     3.27    49.81     8.89   -16.91     0.02     0.15     1.27     0.32P   18.37R    7.44  
Salford_City     11   11   -8       0.29    54.55    -0.92    41.74     8.91   -35.55     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.04P   54.13R   32.39  
Mansfield        11   10   -4      -7.34     5.74    -7.34    62.79     9.45     3.35     1.08     5.06    19.59     9.39P    1.30R    0.33  
Oldham           11   10   -4      -5.05    13.96    -3.96    61.55     9.59     1.55     0.73     3.93    16.50     7.16P    2.18R    0.68  
Leyton_Orient    11   10   -6      -1.96    34.72    -1.19    45.40     9.38   -25.67     0.01     0.07     0.60     0.15P   36.24R   18.65  
Morecambe        11    7  -10      -4.71    14.27    -4.85    43.82     9.09   -26.85     0.00     0.02     0.26     0.05P   42.64R   23.22  
Scunthorpe       11    6   -8      -9.99     1.52    -9.39    56.85    10.09    -3.63     0.31     1.82     8.81     3.79P    6.63R    2.58  
Stevenage        11    5   -8      -9.18     1.58    -6.88    48.56     9.25   -13.83     0.01     0.12     1.15     0.36P   22.13R    9.83  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 October 2019, AFC_Fylde 0 4 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Bromley            14   29   +7       7.68    92.08     3.89    76.50     9.17    12.32    10.28    57.38    20.13P    0.17R    0.00  
Halifax            14   28  +11       8.37    94.03    10.19    76.56     8.87    18.02     9.75    59.19    20.35P    0.13R    0.00  
Yeovil             14   28  +10       2.94    69.86     1.18    86.82     9.17    32.46    50.09    90.66    63.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking             14   25   +8       5.54    83.55     7.64    67.81     9.54     6.55     2.25    24.28     6.82P    2.90R    0.11  
Barnet             14   23   +4       2.40    67.57     1.87    72.18     8.87    11.89     4.04    39.52    12.60P    0.59R    0.03  
Dag_&_Red          14   23   +3       2.97    71.33     1.68    67.81     8.90     4.50     1.54    22.06     5.85P    2.14R    0.05  
Dover_Athletic     14   23   +2       2.76    69.48     0.41    67.38     9.00     2.58     1.59    21.17     5.62P    2.63R    0.07  
Barrow             14   22   +6       1.47    60.76     4.00    66.94     9.03     7.57     1.41    20.63     5.49P    2.69R    0.05  
Solihull_Moors     14   21   +6      -1.22    41.16     1.39    72.01     9.07    16.61     4.38    40.31    13.93P    0.80R    0.01  
Notts_County       14   20   +5      -4.25    21.68    -2.72    77.07     9.24    24.92    11.99    62.65    29.97P    0.24R    0.00  
Torquay            14   19   +2       1.57    61.76     4.94    57.44     9.47    -6.99     0.18     4.33     0.92P   21.09R    2.08  
Harrogate_Town     14   19   +0      -1.65    38.40    -2.18    65.19     9.04     3.29     0.92    15.39     4.23P    4.43R    0.19  
Boreham_Wood       14   18   +5      -2.04    35.88     3.80    61.88     8.92     5.02     0.41     8.91     2.21P    8.12R    0.41  
Maidenhead         14   18   +3       0.58    55.17     5.66    56.48     8.74    -5.16     0.07     2.68     0.47P   21.44R    1.70  
Eastleigh          14   17   -3      -0.65    46.07    -0.50    59.58     8.96    -5.05     0.17     5.25     1.16P   13.78R    1.04  
Hartlepool         14   17   -4      -1.16    42.34    -2.38    56.74     8.84   -10.56     0.10     2.79     0.59P   21.91R    1.90  
Stockport          14   17   -9       3.04    73.03    -0.46    48.42     8.95   -28.65     0.00     0.42     0.05P   58.65R   12.63  
AFC_Fylde          14   16   -9      -4.44    20.86   -10.76    62.84     9.16    -4.76     0.48     9.96     2.72P    8.11R    0.48  
Sutton_United      14   15   -2      -3.40    26.79    -0.85    57.25     8.92    -4.42     0.07     3.29     0.76P   19.46R    1.63  
Wrexham            14   14   -5      -5.88    13.31    -6.12    59.89     8.86    -1.79     0.19     5.51     1.55P   12.16R    0.82  
Aldershot          14   14   -7      -1.49    39.64    -1.76    50.61     8.58   -17.40     0.01     0.49     0.08P   47.09R    7.41  
Chesterfield       14   12   -8      -7.34     8.44    -8.19    54.30     8.98   -10.61     0.03     1.51     0.39P   30.34R    3.57  
Ebbsfleet_United   14   10  -10      -7.47     7.61    -7.30    54.41     9.03    -9.38     0.04     1.60     0.37P   30.00R    3.78  
Chorley            14   10  -15      -2.12    35.55    -3.41    37.72     8.53   -40.96     0.00     0.01     0.00P   91.12R   62.03