Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 1 October 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 30 September 2019, Man_Utd 1 1 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         7   21  +13       5.24    96.12     2.04    89.07     7.65    58.04    42.67    91.75    97.93    99.40    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          7   16  +20      -1.43    28.80     4.22    90.35     6.86    82.52    55.87    95.16    99.03    99.74    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         7   14   +8       3.51    83.97     6.71    60.78     8.63    13.41     0.07     0.86     9.03    22.15    54.94     0.17R    0.01  
Arsenal           7   12   +1       0.78    58.12    -1.51    65.38     8.84    18.28     0.30     2.60    20.94    42.13    73.77     0.05R    0.00  
West_Ham          7   12   +1       2.70    77.11     1.77    51.76     8.47    -5.65     0.00     0.06     1.19     3.94    16.47     2.28R    0.24  
Tottenham         7   11   +5      -1.77    29.13    -0.06    70.02     8.47    31.78     0.87     6.79    43.01    65.74    88.80     0.00R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   11   +1      -1.22    36.63    -3.15    64.68     8.54    18.53     0.18     2.03    18.85    38.73    72.30     0.04R    0.00  
Bournemouth       7   11   +1       2.17    73.39     2.97    48.45     8.59   -11.14     0.00     0.02     0.55     1.96     9.57     5.75R    0.89  
Crystal_Palace    7   11   -1       1.39    66.11    -0.88    48.61     8.27   -10.29     0.00     0.02     0.40     1.66     8.69     4.83R    0.69  
Man_Utd           7    9   +2      -2.80    22.59    -1.27    60.55     8.41    15.56     0.04     0.69     8.32    21.30    54.56     0.18R    0.02  
Burnley           7    9   +1       0.68    58.71     3.19    44.24     8.27   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.60     3.66    12.10R    2.25  
Sheff_Utd         7    8   +0       0.69    59.81     3.76    42.19     8.50   -14.98     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.34     2.32    19.28R    4.69  
Wolverhampton     7    7   -2      -1.96    30.06    -1.09    44.65     8.30   -11.64     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.56     3.79    11.56R    2.05  
Southampton       7    7   -4      -0.20    49.43    -0.02    42.18     8.26   -18.19     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.34     2.14    18.71R    4.07  
Everton           7    7   -6      -2.78    21.93    -5.99    46.21     8.40   -12.83     0.00     0.00     0.27     1.05     5.70     8.64R    1.50  
Brighton          7    6   -5      -0.93    40.00     0.11    36.62     7.85   -23.97     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.39    40.88R   12.54  
Norwich           7    6   -7       0.53    58.31     1.98    37.96     8.84   -29.46     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.15     1.11    37.76R   12.87  
Aston_Villa       7    5   -3      -2.23    27.16     1.60    35.22     8.36   -26.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.39    48.81R   19.49  
Newcastle         7    5   -9      -2.48    23.38    -5.16    40.55     8.21   -20.42     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.13     1.38    23.78R    5.56  
Watford           7    2  -16      -4.54     7.20    -9.23    32.03     8.14   -40.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11    65.18R   33.13  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 October 2019, Blackburn 1 1 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    10   20   +9       3.89    80.55     5.51    80.12     9.82    24.86    20.36    36.69    75.54    47.74P    0.03R    0.00  
West_Brom       10   19   +6       1.81    65.09     0.65    81.02    10.02    25.26    24.03    40.96    77.77    51.86P    0.04R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   10   19   +6       5.05    87.06     5.61    72.84     9.85    12.67     5.97    13.50    47.23    21.08P    0.29R    0.01  
Fulham          10   18  +10       1.04    58.74     5.17    76.95    10.37    24.45    14.07    26.72    64.34    37.35P    0.13R    0.02  
Preston         10   18   +7       3.01    74.97     5.10    72.57    10.05    14.65     6.29    13.89    46.83    21.64P    0.40R    0.05  
Swansea          9   18   +7       3.96    82.56     4.47    76.41    10.04    18.25    11.59    23.70    61.77    33.55P    0.12R    0.02  
Charlton         9   17   +4       4.84    87.04     4.14    64.07    10.33    -1.07     1.33     3.36    18.20     6.34P    3.52R    0.45  
Sheff_Wed       10   16   +6       0.91    58.07     3.94    67.37     9.81     8.96     2.22     5.70    27.45    10.62P    1.20R    0.12  
Bristol_City     9   16   +4       3.11    76.63     3.20    71.55    10.27    11.10     5.37    11.96    42.49    18.91P    0.65R    0.06  
QPR              9   16   +0       4.81    87.34     1.89    59.64     9.98   -11.47     0.38     1.15     8.71     2.38P    7.92R    1.24  
Blackburn       10   14   +0       0.64    56.33     0.62    61.82     9.80    -2.31     0.52     1.65    12.06     3.84P    4.84R    0.74  
Hull            10   13   +1      -1.21    40.19     0.35    62.01     9.93    -0.03     0.66     1.88    13.10     4.39P    4.88R    0.77  
Cardiff          9   13   -1      -0.26    47.64    -2.38    66.12    10.50     2.64     2.17     5.24    24.26    10.15P    2.50R    0.32  
Birmingham      10   13   -4       1.03    60.46    -1.56    57.46     9.56   -10.93     0.15     0.50     5.14     1.38P   10.62R    1.77  
Brentford        9   11   +1      -2.38    28.92    -0.57    66.67    10.16     8.28     1.99     5.18    25.97    10.68P    1.88R    0.23  
Derby            9   11   -2      -2.13    31.18    -3.17    67.38    10.22     6.38     2.28     5.81    28.14    11.72P    1.66R    0.19  
Wigan           10   11   -6      -0.95    42.50    -3.50    54.58     9.42   -14.17     0.06     0.20     2.66     0.70P   16.80R    3.38  
Luton            9   10   -3      -1.17    40.31    -0.97    55.16    10.66   -12.68     0.18     0.64     4.97     1.50P   18.52R    4.44  
Middlesbrough   10   10   -4      -4.57    14.67    -5.38    60.66     9.44    -1.46     0.32     1.00     9.26     3.14P    5.19R    0.77  
Millwall         9   10   -5      -0.17    49.77    -1.93    53.36     9.50   -15.04     0.03     0.17     2.18     0.52P   20.81R    4.22  
Reading         10    8   -5      -2.75    27.02    -0.48    48.84     9.44   -17.87     0.01     0.05     0.72     0.16P   36.57R   10.47  
Barnsley         9    5  -10      -4.93    10.97    -6.55    46.42    10.10   -23.73     0.01     0.04     0.67     0.21P   47.45R   18.02  
Huddersfield     9    2  -10      -7.58     1.79    -5.86    41.12     9.89   -26.67     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P   67.48R   35.92  
Stoke            9    2  -11      -8.42     1.08    -8.29    46.36     9.67   -20.08     0.01     0.02     0.38     0.10P   46.50R   16.79  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Bristol_Rovers 1 0 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              10   24  +15       5.80    90.91     8.16    85.66     9.63    38.15    45.83    66.00    92.60    74.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Wycombe              11   22   +8       5.49    87.91     5.90    64.48     9.08     3.29     0.98     3.16    22.28     6.53P    1.10R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       10   20   +7       3.77    80.03     3.20    72.32     9.52    15.61     5.76    14.62    53.96    23.73P    0.19R    0.00  
Coventry             10   20   +6       5.01    87.27     4.10    68.06     9.26     8.20     2.22     6.54    35.29    12.25P    0.45R    0.00  
Sunderland           10   19   +4       0.98    58.10    -2.72    80.13     9.33    26.95    20.46    41.73    82.03    54.85P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool            11   19   +3       2.97    73.86     1.58    66.12     9.01     5.79     1.32     4.22    27.60     8.97P    0.70R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       11   18   +2       2.24    68.64     0.87    62.63     8.96     0.99     0.54     1.80    16.29     4.65P    1.86R    0.01  
Peterborough         10   17  +11       0.13    50.94     5.92    74.66     9.44    28.70     8.82    21.65    64.97    33.56P    0.05R    0.00  
Doncaster             9   16   +4       1.76    65.94     1.13    71.85     9.66    15.98     5.13    13.72    52.21    23.27P    0.20R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           11   15   +7      -1.17    40.62     5.44    65.11     9.35    14.26     1.25     4.01    26.20     9.05P    1.19R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         11   13   -2      -0.52    46.80     0.55    53.23     9.43   -10.46     0.05     0.22     3.29     0.80P   15.41R    0.34  
Shrewsbury           10   13   -4      -0.20    48.78    -3.35    57.58     9.19    -6.88     0.10     0.53     6.92     1.72P    6.55R    0.10  
Rotherham             9   12   +3      -2.35    28.40    -0.14    66.92    10.33    13.50     2.64     7.27    34.16    14.69P    1.34R    0.01  
Burton_Albion         9   12   +2      -1.04    40.84     0.98    67.36     9.60    13.19     2.23     6.42    34.33    13.42P    0.79R    0.01  
MK_Dons              10   12   -3      -0.41    47.31    -0.77    52.51     9.61   -13.15     0.05     0.23     3.16     0.80P   18.15R    0.55  
Gillingham           10   10   +1      -3.22    23.64     1.89    55.90     9.44    -0.85     0.09     0.44     5.82     1.52P    9.97R    0.14  
Accrington_Stanley   10   10   -5      -1.59    36.98    -1.61    49.67     9.14   -16.80     0.02     0.05     1.31     0.25P   26.06R    0.94  
Rochdale             10   10   -7      -0.77    44.16    -1.87    47.59     9.07   -22.73     0.00     0.02     0.75     0.12P   34.81R    1.47  
Portsmouth            8    9   +0      -4.08    14.35    -3.34    67.56     9.98    14.16     2.50     7.34    36.26    15.64P    0.99R    0.01  
Tranmere             10    9   -5      -0.92    42.94     1.86    44.28     9.37   -24.39     0.01     0.02     0.46     0.08P   49.17R    3.23  
Southend             10    4  -14      -7.33     3.63    -9.96    40.73     8.95   -31.98     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   65.21R    6.67  
AFC_Wimbledon        11    3  -10      -7.93     2.00    -3.30    39.72     8.69   -23.10     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   67.85R    7.00  
Bolton                9   -9  -23      -4.10    12.65   -14.51    23.17     9.06   -48.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.94R   79.51  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Carlisle 1 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter           11   22   +6       3.99    80.08     1.69    76.00     9.54    15.09    14.92    37.47    68.83    45.50P    0.03R    0.01  
Crewe            11   22   +5       6.22    90.49     3.87    72.23     9.64     8.36     7.73    23.93    53.38    30.19P    0.12R    0.02  
Cheltenham       11   21  +10       4.62    83.36     8.10    70.42     9.54    12.35     5.61    19.39    47.21    25.40P    0.13R    0.03  
Forest_Green     11   21   +6       4.41    82.92     3.70    74.21     9.48    13.95    10.78    30.88    62.10    38.67P    0.04R    0.00  
Swindon          11   20   +5       2.94    73.19     2.02    72.50     9.56    11.91     8.34    25.30    55.32    32.74P    0.08R    0.03  
Newport_County   11   20   +5       5.08    86.39     4.97    70.73     9.40     9.52     5.36    19.19    47.72    25.36P    0.15R    0.04  
Grimsby          11   18   +6       3.45    77.70     6.59    64.02     9.37     3.64     1.34     6.18    22.65     9.47P    0.91R    0.23  
Bradford         11   18   +5       0.04    49.85     0.79    77.74     9.86    22.59    20.99    46.56    75.07    55.19P    0.02R    0.01  
Colchester       11   16   +3      -0.59    45.32     0.71    69.30     9.39    11.10     4.20    15.89    42.84    23.18P    0.20R    0.04  
Crawley_Town     11   16   +2       1.77    65.25     3.33    59.52     9.41    -4.64     0.46     2.50    11.41     4.17P    2.97R    0.87  
Cambridge_Utd    11   15   +3       1.97    67.64     5.64    60.37     9.33    -0.14     0.57     2.82    13.17     4.96P    2.35R    0.67  
Plymouth         11   15   +2      -2.64    29.43    -1.91    72.25    10.17    16.02     9.44    26.66    55.19    35.14P    0.22R    0.06  
Northampton      11   15   +2      -0.87    43.13     0.81    66.44     9.61     7.34     2.51    10.39    31.46    15.57P    0.60R    0.15  
Walsall          11   15   -3      -0.94    42.54    -4.38    69.06     9.80     6.19     4.39    15.50    40.95    22.72P    0.36R    0.09  
Port_Vale        11   14   -3       0.96    59.54    -0.33    56.00     9.17   -11.07     0.14     0.94     5.45     1.77P    6.11R    2.02  
Carlisle         11   14   -5      -0.63    45.63    -4.32    62.24     9.61    -4.61     0.93     4.51    17.73     7.38P    1.83R    0.49  
Macclesfield     11   13   -1       0.97    59.82     3.31    49.61     8.93   -17.23     0.01     0.13     1.24     0.32P   18.83R    7.87  
Salford_City     11   11   -8       0.34    54.91    -0.83    41.70     8.98   -35.75     0.00     0.02     0.16     0.05P   53.94R   32.63  
Mansfield        11   10   -4      -7.38     5.44    -7.43    63.12     9.49     3.84     1.19     5.55    20.94    10.24P    1.16R    0.33  
Oldham           11   10   -4      -5.02    14.04    -3.94    61.48     9.64     1.39     0.70     4.06    16.31     7.38P    2.19R    0.69  
Leyton_Orient    11   10   -6      -1.99    34.65    -1.19    45.43     9.40   -25.64     0.00     0.09     0.62     0.19P   36.30R   18.59  
Morecambe        11    7  -10      -4.72    14.28    -4.90    43.84     9.02   -26.88     0.00     0.02     0.27     0.07P   42.65R   22.81  
Scunthorpe       11    6   -8      -9.99     1.51    -9.40    56.96    10.12    -3.51     0.35     1.89     8.90     3.95P    6.58R    2.52  
Stevenage        11    5   -8      -9.20     1.60    -6.89    48.57     9.25   -13.83     0.02     0.12     1.08     0.37P   22.22R    9.78  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 October 2019, AFC_Fylde 0 4 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Bromley            14   29   +7       7.75    92.05     4.01    76.32     9.14    12.03     9.76    56.79    19.28P    0.23R    0.00  
Halifax            14   28  +11       8.39    94.05    10.24    76.50     8.85    17.92     9.59    59.04    20.00P    0.12R    0.00  
Yeovil             14   28  +10       2.92    69.98     1.13    86.88     9.10    32.63    50.80    90.76    64.14P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking             14   25   +8       5.73    84.46     7.91    67.51     9.57     6.05     2.26    23.38     6.68P    3.06R    0.14  
Barnet             14   23   +4       2.44    67.72     1.92    72.04     8.90    11.71     3.95    38.83    12.44P    0.63R    0.02  
Dag_&_Red          14   23   +3       2.98    71.14     1.71    67.81     8.86     4.46     1.46    22.19     5.72P    2.24R    0.06  
Dover_Athletic     14   23   +2       2.63    68.68     0.22    67.74     9.06     3.09     1.78    22.44     6.06P    2.54R    0.10  
Barrow             14   22   +6       1.47    61.25     4.01    66.95     9.03     7.50     1.43    20.67     5.59P    2.79R    0.07  
Solihull_Moors     14   21   +6      -1.28    40.43     1.34    72.04     9.05    16.66     4.35    40.56    14.20P    0.73R    0.02  
Notts_County       14   20   +5      -4.24    21.91    -2.73    77.02     9.34    24.89    12.01    62.45    29.86P    0.22R    0.00  
Torquay            14   19   +2       1.39    60.71     4.70    57.71     9.62    -6.63     0.25     4.74     1.17P   20.46R    2.15  
Harrogate_Town     14   19   +0      -1.66    38.27    -2.17    65.18     9.10     3.24     0.89    15.50     4.23P    4.57R    0.20  
Boreham_Wood       14   18   +5      -2.03    35.77     3.80    61.94     8.87     5.12     0.38     8.85     2.29P    7.86R    0.40  
Maidenhead         14   18   +3       0.51    54.70     5.55    56.73     8.82    -4.79     0.08     2.94     0.55P   20.59R    1.74  
Eastleigh          14   17   -3      -0.65    46.08    -0.51    59.55     8.95    -5.06     0.16     5.17     1.14P   13.71R    1.10  
Hartlepool         14   17   -4      -1.13    42.68    -2.34    56.63     8.90   -10.76     0.09     2.77     0.60P   22.40R    1.96  
Stockport          14   17   -9       3.02    72.81    -0.55    48.54     8.92   -28.37     0.01     0.42     0.08P   58.10R   12.39  
AFC_Fylde          14   16   -9      -4.50    20.33   -10.86    62.88     9.13    -4.68     0.45    10.21     2.86P    7.86R    0.49  
Sutton_United      14   15   -2      -3.39    26.73    -0.80    57.22     8.94    -4.51     0.10     3.26     0.84P   19.68R    1.64  
Wrexham            14   14   -5      -5.93    13.12    -6.17    59.99     8.87    -1.66     0.15     5.60     1.47P   11.77R    0.84  
Aldershot          14   14   -7      -1.35    40.80    -1.52    50.28     8.52   -17.95     0.00     0.35     0.06P   48.25R    7.91  
Chesterfield       14   12   -8      -7.33     8.58    -8.14    54.26     9.00   -10.72     0.04     1.57     0.37P   30.80R    3.71  
Ebbsfleet_United   14   10  -10      -7.42     7.68    -7.21    54.28     9.02    -9.53     0.03     1.50     0.36P   30.55R    3.79  
Chorley            14   10  -15      -2.20    34.92    -3.55    37.92     8.57   -40.65     0.00     0.01     0.00P   90.83R   61.27