Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 30 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 30 September 2019, Man_Utd 1 1 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         7   21  +13       5.24    96.12     2.04    89.02     7.66    57.93    42.24    91.53    97.97    99.42    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          7   16  +20      -1.47    28.33     4.14    90.48     6.82    82.99    56.30    95.53    99.15    99.77    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         7   14   +8       3.52    84.16     6.69    60.87     8.58    13.60     0.08     0.89     9.02    22.27    55.15     0.16R    0.01  
Arsenal           7   12   +1       0.80    58.28    -1.49    65.19     8.81    18.06     0.28     2.49    20.79    41.23    73.17     0.06R    0.00  
West_Ham          7   12   +1       2.79    77.94     1.90    51.64     8.48    -5.95     0.00     0.05     1.23     3.87    16.05     2.35R    0.23  
Tottenham         7   11   +5      -1.77    28.91    -0.05    69.82     8.51    31.44     0.81     6.65    41.88    64.77    88.30     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   11   +1      -1.20    36.76    -3.11    64.70     8.61    18.50     0.21     2.07    19.00    38.79    71.85     0.03R    0.00  
Bournemouth       7   11   +1       2.20    73.71     3.04    48.51     8.65   -11.02     0.00     0.03     0.64     2.11     9.71     5.87R    0.95  
Crystal_Palace    7   11   -1       1.36    65.78    -0.90    48.62     8.40   -10.31     0.00     0.02     0.50     1.85     8.85     5.06R    0.70  
Man_Utd           7    9   +2      -2.88    22.03    -1.39    60.82     8.50    16.03     0.08     0.73     9.10    22.62    55.82     0.14R    0.02  
Burnley           7    9   +1       0.64    58.14     3.14    44.26     8.24   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.53     3.64    11.95R    2.24  
Sheff_Utd         7    8   +0       0.66    59.53     3.71    42.29     8.55   -14.86     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.41     2.62    18.92R    4.55  
Wolverhampton     7    7   -2      -1.95    29.68    -1.09    44.66     8.36   -11.62     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.61     3.85    11.76R    2.25  
Southampton       7    7   -4      -0.14    50.24     0.06    42.11     8.28   -18.37     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.30     2.11    18.96R    4.42  
Everton           7    7   -6      -2.79    21.86    -5.99    46.27     8.40   -12.84     0.00     0.00     0.25     1.09     5.80     8.60R    1.39  
Brighton          7    6   -5      -1.00    39.04     0.03    36.78     7.87   -23.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.43    40.03R   12.11  
Norwich           7    6   -7       0.58    59.12     2.04    37.79     8.74   -29.81     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.15     0.94    37.87R   13.34  
Aston_Villa       7    5   -3      -2.19    27.78     1.67    35.05     8.41   -27.12     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.37    49.43R   19.95  
Newcastle         7    5   -9      -2.48    23.12    -5.17    40.53     8.16   -20.45     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.15     1.32    23.86R    5.40  
Watford           7    2  -16      -4.54     7.11    -9.28    32.16     8.11   -39.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13    64.94R   32.43  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 September 2019, Barnsley 1 3 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom        9   19   +7       2.92    75.10     1.19    83.00    10.24    27.29    31.62    49.03    82.42    58.98P    0.02R    0.00  
Swansea          9   18   +7       4.02    82.96     4.55    76.26    10.05    18.06    11.30    23.18    61.15    33.05P    0.12R    0.01  
Nott'm_Forest    9   18   +6       5.37    89.83     5.57    73.26    10.14    12.71     6.66    15.12    49.28    22.82P    0.38R    0.04  
Leeds_United     9   17   +8       2.46    71.76     4.79    77.92     9.99    23.08    15.22    29.08    68.11    40.18P    0.07R    0.01  
Preston          9   17   +7       3.33    78.24     5.05    72.81    10.33    14.50     6.72    15.13    48.10    23.17P    0.51R    0.05  
Charlton         9   17   +4       4.89    87.35     4.20    64.13    10.28    -0.97     1.33     3.54    18.24     6.51P    3.30R    0.48  
Sheff_Wed        9   16   +7       2.08    68.73     4.63    69.41    10.19    10.90     3.73     8.98    35.28    15.13P    0.88R    0.09  
Bristol_City     9   16   +4       3.04    76.04     3.08    71.74    10.29    11.38     5.55    12.58    43.56    19.80P    0.61R    0.06  
QPR              9   16   +0       4.86    87.71     2.00    59.64     9.86   -11.43     0.33     1.07     8.51     2.26P    7.96R    1.27  
Fulham           9   15   +7       0.36    53.25     3.60    73.49    10.76    18.57     8.68    18.13    51.32    27.41P    0.56R    0.07  
Blackburn        9   13   +0       1.05    60.48     0.71    61.94    10.11    -2.79     0.72     2.03    13.23     4.37P    5.34R    0.86  
Cardiff          9   13   -1      -0.41    46.70    -2.59    66.47    10.59     3.10     2.39     6.05    25.67    11.08P    2.40R    0.31  
Birmingham       9   13   -3       2.21    71.04    -0.78    59.22     9.80    -9.47     0.30     0.89     7.63     2.10P    8.27R    1.44  
Brentford        9   11   +1      -2.32    29.44    -0.51    66.52    10.01     8.05     1.82     4.98    25.36    10.33P    1.84R    0.22  
Derby            9   11   -2      -2.10    31.62    -3.08    67.36    10.25     6.31     2.20     5.87    28.05    11.69P    1.81R    0.18  
Hull             9   10   +0      -2.56    27.94    -0.23    59.79    10.24    -2.15     0.54     1.53    10.01     3.46P    7.98R    1.57  
Luton            9   10   -3      -1.24    39.73    -1.03    55.43    10.63   -12.22     0.18     0.63     5.29     1.58P   17.86R    4.25  
Millwall         9   10   -5      -0.17    49.84    -1.90    53.31     9.50   -15.13     0.06     0.19     2.19     0.59P   21.29R    4.56  
Middlesbrough    9    9   -4      -4.29    15.19    -5.48    61.80     9.74    -0.43     0.57     1.71    12.03     4.43P    4.73R    0.67  
Reading          9    8   -2      -2.10    31.15     1.37    51.30     9.70   -13.05     0.02     0.09     1.71     0.39P   27.52R    7.26  
Wigan            9    8   -7      -2.47    28.12    -4.29    52.36     9.67   -16.14     0.03     0.15     1.79     0.46P   24.29R    5.86  
Barnsley         9    5  -10      -4.93    11.07    -6.53    46.22     9.98   -24.09     0.01     0.02     0.47     0.10P   48.77R   19.04  
Huddersfield     9    2  -10      -7.66     1.81    -5.99    41.44     9.80   -26.20     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   67.06R   34.99  
Stoke            9    2  -11      -8.45     0.97    -8.33    46.55     9.65   -19.87     0.00     0.01     0.42     0.09P   46.43R   16.73  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Bristol_Rovers 1 0 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              10   24  +15       5.80    91.14     8.16    85.72     9.61    38.13    45.88    66.19    92.76    74.29P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              11   22   +8       5.48    88.03     5.86    64.66     9.13     3.56     1.01     3.34    22.95     6.76P    1.07R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town       10   20   +7       3.85    80.66     3.31    72.08     9.44    15.25     5.50    14.14    52.79    22.93P    0.17R    0.00  
Coventry             10   20   +6       5.05    87.59     4.20    67.90     9.24     8.01     2.16     6.28    34.61    12.16P    0.54R    0.00  
Sunderland           10   19   +4       1.05    58.61    -2.59    79.94     9.28    26.64    19.66    40.60    81.99    53.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool            11   19   +3       3.02    73.92     1.65    65.95     8.94     5.57     1.28     4.01    26.73     8.71P    0.67R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       11   18   +2       2.11    67.47     0.67    62.90     9.01     1.38     0.58     2.01    17.09     4.99P    1.73R    0.01  
Peterborough         10   17  +11       0.07    50.61     5.81    74.92     9.60    29.17     9.60    22.73    65.96    34.70P    0.10R    0.00  
Doncaster             9   16   +4       1.70    65.25     1.05    72.02     9.74    16.19     5.46    14.30    52.78    24.06P    0.27R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           11   15   +7      -1.20    39.96     5.38    65.17     9.28    14.36     1.15     3.78    26.52     9.05P    1.17R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         11   13   -2      -0.45    47.36     0.65    53.10     9.39   -10.64     0.06     0.20     3.23     0.81P   15.79R    0.41  
Shrewsbury           10   13   -4      -0.21    48.86    -3.34    57.51     9.18    -7.06     0.17     0.59     6.90     1.79P    6.83R    0.10  
Rotherham             9   12   +3      -2.40    28.27    -0.24    67.10    10.32    13.80     2.87     7.49    35.01    14.98P    1.29R    0.01  
Burton_Albion         9   12   +2      -0.99    41.31     1.04    67.15     9.68    12.77     1.98     6.34    33.86    13.35P    0.86R    0.01  
MK_Dons              10   12   -3      -0.44    46.80    -0.83    52.58     9.57   -13.07     0.04     0.22     3.15     0.73P   17.94R    0.44  
Gillingham           10   10   +1      -3.18    23.87     1.92    55.88     9.52    -0.91     0.08     0.43     5.89     1.53P   10.23R    0.17  
Accrington_Stanley   10   10   -5      -1.56    37.15    -1.59    49.76     9.15   -16.62     0.02     0.06     1.24     0.26P   25.85R    0.97  
Rochdale             10   10   -7      -0.82    43.91    -1.93    47.54     9.12   -22.74     0.00     0.03     0.73     0.12P   35.24R    1.54  
Portsmouth            8    9   +0      -4.06    14.58    -3.31    67.39     9.97    13.83     2.51     7.24    35.27    15.13P    1.04R    0.01  
Tranmere             10    9   -5      -0.91    43.13     1.85    44.40     9.26   -24.15     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.07P   48.38R    2.92  
Southend             10    4  -14      -7.34     3.62    -9.96    40.79     9.08   -31.84     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   65.22R    6.73  
AFC_Wimbledon        11    3  -10      -8.00     1.99    -3.41    39.81     8.70   -22.88     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   67.58R    6.92  
Bolton                9   -9  -23      -4.05    12.92   -14.35    23.09     9.08   -48.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.02R   79.75  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Carlisle 1 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter           11   22   +6       3.93    79.51     1.61    76.15     9.62    15.29    15.38    38.60    69.25    46.77P    0.02R    0.00  
Crewe            11   22   +5       6.16    90.08     3.78    72.43     9.67     8.65     7.91    24.70    54.25    30.94P    0.10R    0.02  
Cheltenham       11   21  +10       4.52    82.82     7.94    70.59     9.54    12.56     5.89    19.53    47.90    25.60P    0.13R    0.03  
Forest_Green     11   21   +6       4.45    83.05     3.75    73.99     9.41    13.64    10.20    29.82    61.71    37.68P    0.04R    0.00  
Swindon          11   20   +5       2.86    72.66     1.93    72.72     9.63    12.28     8.58    26.03    56.20    33.34P    0.10R    0.03  
Newport_County   11   20   +5       5.05    86.32     4.95    70.64     9.40     9.39     5.32    18.62    47.04    24.99P    0.16R    0.04  
Grimsby          11   18   +6       3.45    77.77     6.58    64.12     9.34     3.78     1.36     6.20    23.02     9.59P    0.90R    0.20  
Bradford         11   18   +5       0.07    50.63     0.83    77.61     9.90    22.33    20.63    45.72    74.57    54.59P    0.04R    0.01  
Colchester       11   16   +3      -0.63    44.82     0.67    69.36     9.47    11.18     4.41    16.28    42.40    23.12P    0.20R    0.04  
Crawley_Town     11   16   +2       1.81    65.50     3.37    59.47     9.43    -4.75     0.52     2.51    11.37     4.22P    3.06R    0.84  
Cambridge_Utd    11   15   +3       1.98    67.66     5.66    60.36     9.22    -0.09     0.47     2.75    12.85     4.76P    2.27R    0.64  
Plymouth         11   15   +2      -2.66    29.17    -1.93    72.34    10.15    16.12     9.24    26.69    55.72    35.45P    0.19R    0.04  
Northampton      11   15   +2      -0.89    43.01     0.80    66.44     9.65     7.35     2.48    10.22    31.91    15.57P    0.64R    0.17  
Walsall          11   15   -3      -0.85    43.44    -4.28    68.96     9.88     6.01     4.34    15.58    40.48    22.60P    0.43R    0.11  
Port_Vale        11   14   -3       1.04    60.20    -0.25    55.74     9.15   -11.47     0.13     0.88     5.11     1.75P    6.30R    2.17  
Carlisle         11   14   -5      -0.61    45.67    -4.30    62.17     9.57    -4.79     0.86     4.33    17.33     7.26P    1.85R    0.52  
Macclesfield     11   13   -1       0.94    59.75     3.30    49.68     8.88   -17.12     0.02     0.11     1.24     0.33P   18.49R    7.59  
Salford_City     11   11   -8       0.31    54.89    -0.89    41.75     8.97   -35.57     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.02P   53.92R   32.48  
Mansfield        11   10   -4      -7.33     5.62    -7.36    62.83     9.47     3.42     1.04     5.09    19.85     9.39P    1.39R    0.40  
Oldham           11   10   -4      -5.04    14.39    -3.97    61.69     9.67     1.71     0.85     4.16    16.88     7.39P    2.16R    0.66  
Leyton_Orient    11   10   -6      -1.92    34.79    -1.11    45.30     9.31   -25.83     0.00     0.06     0.47     0.13P   36.51R   19.04  
Morecambe        11    7  -10      -4.62    14.79    -4.78    43.88     8.97   -26.77     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.03P   42.23R   22.61  
Scunthorpe       11    6   -8     -10.08     1.40    -9.48    57.03    10.10    -3.37     0.36     1.99     8.98     4.15P    6.40R    2.45  
Stevenage        11    5   -8      -9.16     1.66    -6.83    48.51     9.27   -13.96     0.01     0.11     1.05     0.32P   22.48R    9.88  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Barnet 0 0 Solihull_Moors; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Bromley            14   29   +7       7.90    92.56     4.24    76.20     9.11    11.88    10.03    57.23    19.73P    0.19R    0.00  
Halifax            14   28  +11       8.34    94.09    10.16    76.71     8.87    18.25    10.51    61.15    21.40P    0.12R    0.00  
Yeovil             14   28  +10       2.94    69.88     1.17    86.72     9.15    32.36    50.97    91.10    64.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking             14   25   +8       5.58    83.61     7.69    68.01     9.61     6.75     2.63    25.97     7.46P    2.99R    0.12  
Dag_&_Red          14   23   +3       3.00    71.38     1.73    67.72     8.91     4.30     1.60    22.96     6.10P    2.22R    0.03  
Dover_Athletic     14   23   +2       2.68    69.05     0.28    67.51     8.98     2.77     1.76    22.40     5.87P    2.57R    0.07  
Barrow             14   22   +6       1.45    60.94     3.97    67.06     9.02     7.73     1.51    21.85     5.99P    2.76R    0.09  
Notts_County       14   20   +5      -4.17    22.20    -2.60    76.83     9.25    24.65    12.20    62.60    30.12P    0.24R    0.00  
Barnet             13   20   +0       1.67    63.11    -0.91    68.12     9.01     4.44     1.82    24.45     6.87P    2.16R    0.08  
Torquay            14   19   +2       1.33    60.26     4.59    57.58     9.55    -6.82     0.21     4.88     1.19P   20.97R    2.11  
Harrogate_Town     14   19   +0      -1.70    38.09    -2.26    65.42     9.12     3.62     1.12    16.88     4.98P    4.65R    0.16  
Boreham_Wood       14   18   +5      -1.87    36.87     4.00    61.76     8.89     4.90     0.42     9.05     2.35P    8.38R    0.42  
Solihull_Moors     13   18   +4      -2.28    33.04     0.28    69.30     9.29    12.95     2.76    30.52    10.00P    1.91R    0.06  
Maidenhead         14   18   +3       0.47    54.27     5.54    56.58     8.69    -5.00     0.08     2.81     0.57P   21.69R    1.62  
Eastleigh          14   17   -3      -0.80    44.96    -0.72    59.77     8.90    -4.72     0.19     5.58     1.35P   13.59R    0.96  
Hartlepool         14   17   -4      -1.07    43.11    -2.30    56.82     8.85   -10.38     0.09     2.84     0.64P   22.07R    1.80  
Stockport          14   17   -9       3.04    72.99    -0.48    48.63     8.96   -28.22     0.01     0.47     0.07P   58.36R   12.21  
AFC_Fylde          13   16   -5      -3.88    22.85    -8.08    66.57     9.40     2.95     1.50    20.82     6.58P    4.02R    0.18  
Sutton_United      14   15   -2      -3.37    26.99    -0.80    57.12     8.91    -4.64     0.10     3.39     0.78P   20.16R    1.68  
Wrexham            13   14   -3      -5.08    16.08    -4.91    61.87     9.06     1.13     0.40     9.11     2.61P    8.73R    0.57  
Aldershot          14   14   -7      -1.31    41.18    -1.49    50.25     8.45   -17.95     0.00     0.41     0.08P   49.09R    7.71  
Chesterfield       14   12   -8      -7.45     8.30    -8.32    54.15     8.97   -10.82     0.05     1.68     0.44P   31.14R    3.96  
Ebbsfleet_United   14   10  -10      -7.55     7.40    -7.42    54.46     9.08    -9.28     0.03     1.84     0.47P   30.49R    3.90  
Chorley            14   10  -15      -2.08    35.75    -3.39    37.72     8.46   -40.87     0.00     0.01     0.00P   91.51R   62.25