Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 29 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 September 2019, Leicester 5 0 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         7   21  +13       5.23    96.09     1.97    89.06     7.61    58.08    42.20    91.49    97.81    99.40    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          7   16  +20      -1.45    28.48     4.09    90.53     6.80    83.19    56.34    95.42    99.11    99.78    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         7   14   +8       3.50    83.94     6.68    60.97     8.64    13.72     0.09     0.95     9.10    22.08    54.87     0.15R    0.01  
West_Ham          7   12   +1       2.76    77.66     1.89    51.61     8.48    -5.91     0.01     0.04     1.09     3.75    15.78     2.43R    0.24  
Tottenham         7   11   +5      -1.79    28.92    -0.09    69.88     8.48    31.55     0.80     6.54    41.25    64.41    88.19     0.00R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   11   +1      -1.16    36.99    -3.08    64.80     8.58    18.67     0.19     1.99    18.75    38.31    72.09     0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth       7   11   +1       2.16    73.45     2.97    48.63     8.63   -10.97     0.00     0.01     0.61     2.05     9.57     5.66R    0.95  
Arsenal           6   11   +1       0.92    60.98    -1.92    65.08     9.06    17.22     0.28     2.44    20.30    40.18    71.65     0.07R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    7   11   -1       1.42    66.45    -0.82    48.56     8.37   -10.37     0.00     0.02     0.44     1.69     8.57     4.95R    0.76  
Burnley           7    9   +1       0.66    58.39     3.18    44.32     8.21   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.52     3.59    11.73R    2.07  
Man_Utd           6    8   +2      -2.20    26.29    -0.95    61.58     8.73    16.68     0.10     1.06    10.85    25.22    58.55     0.18R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd         7    8   +0       0.63    59.21     3.70    42.27     8.52   -15.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.37     2.48    18.88R    4.36  
Wolverhampton     7    7   -2      -1.94    30.01    -1.06    44.69     8.31   -11.64     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.55     3.64    11.41R    2.10  
Southampton       7    7   -4      -0.14    50.19     0.08    42.11     8.26   -18.48     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.29     2.04    18.88R    4.31  
Everton           7    7   -6      -2.81    21.51    -6.02    46.27     8.54   -12.79     0.00     0.01     0.23     1.07     6.03     8.82R    1.53  
Brighton          7    6   -5      -1.00    39.24     0.03    36.78     7.88   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.31    40.31R   11.96  
Norwich           7    6   -7       0.54    58.48     2.03    38.00     8.84   -29.56     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.15     1.02    37.46R   13.14  
Aston_Villa       7    5   -3      -2.23    27.23     1.62    35.03     8.42   -27.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.41    49.55R   20.10  
Newcastle         7    5   -9      -2.47    23.35    -5.10    40.41     8.15   -20.71     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.12     1.17    24.33R    5.54  
Watford           7    2  -16      -4.53     7.30    -9.22    32.06     8.15   -40.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    65.16R   32.90  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 September 2019, Barnsley 1 3 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom        9   19   +7       2.89    74.60     1.13    83.15    10.24    27.57    31.96    49.54    82.37    59.25P    0.02R    0.00  
Swansea          9   18   +7       3.92    82.10     4.42    76.50     9.99    18.44    11.73    23.70    61.85    33.62P    0.10R    0.01  
Nott'm_Forest    9   18   +6       5.45    90.18     5.69    73.05    10.09    12.45     6.06    14.36    48.34    21.83P    0.42R    0.03  
Leeds_United     9   17   +8       2.46    71.84     4.80    78.01    10.01    23.20    15.10    29.39    68.15    40.43P    0.06R    0.01  
Preston          9   17   +7       3.33    78.06     5.00    73.01    10.34    14.80     7.15    15.52    48.48    23.50P    0.42R    0.03  
Charlton         9   17   +4       4.85    87.30     4.14    64.14    10.24    -0.98     1.19     3.34    17.90     6.32P    3.35R    0.45  
Sheff_Wed        9   16   +7       2.11    68.74     4.66    69.37    10.09    10.84     3.48     8.52    34.95    14.74P    0.88R    0.09  
Bristol_City     9   16   +4       2.96    75.47     3.01    71.91    10.23    11.60     5.62    12.66    43.96    20.11P    0.60R    0.05  
QPR              9   16   +0       4.94    87.90     2.09    59.57     9.91   -11.58     0.35     1.08     8.64     2.30P    7.81R    1.17  
Fulham           9   15   +7       0.29    52.40     3.52    73.66    10.80    18.85     8.74    18.46    51.88    27.92P    0.47R    0.04  
Blackburn        9   13   +0       1.04    60.53     0.69    61.99    10.11    -2.68     0.66     2.09    13.31     4.42P    5.17R    0.78  
Cardiff          9   13   -1      -0.34    46.95    -2.50    66.22    10.59     2.80     2.24     5.47    24.97    10.45P    2.51R    0.31  
Birmingham       9   13   -3       2.18    70.89    -0.83    59.32     9.84    -9.34     0.28     0.91     7.75     2.19P    8.35R    1.39  
Brentford        9   11   +1      -2.37    29.23    -0.55    66.54    10.14     8.08     1.90     5.12    25.60    10.33P    1.98R    0.27  
Derby            9   11   -2      -2.08    31.68    -3.09    67.27    10.20     6.17     2.12     5.57    27.37    11.39P    1.78R    0.19  
Hull             9   10   +0      -2.57    27.91    -0.24    59.85    10.35    -2.00     0.54     1.52    10.19     3.46P    7.98R    1.49  
Luton            9   10   -3      -1.23    39.91    -1.02    55.39    10.65   -12.31     0.19     0.65     5.27     1.60P   17.91R    4.12  
Millwall         9   10   -5      -0.25    48.97    -2.00    53.47     9.54   -14.91     0.06     0.20     2.29     0.59P   20.52R    4.42  
Middlesbrough    9    9   -4      -4.25    15.20    -5.41    61.66     9.77    -0.64     0.53     1.57    12.00     4.33P    4.75R    0.66  
Reading          9    8   -2      -2.09    31.54     1.38    51.19     9.75   -13.23     0.03     0.10     1.60     0.39P   27.76R    7.11  
Wigan            9    8   -7      -2.45    28.62    -4.26    52.41     9.69   -16.08     0.04     0.18     1.94     0.49P   23.92R    5.80  
Barnsley         9    5  -10      -4.98    10.90    -6.60    46.39    10.01   -23.82     0.01     0.04     0.63     0.16P   47.87R   18.13  
Huddersfield     9    2  -10      -7.55     1.82    -5.79    40.99     9.88   -27.01     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.05P   68.34R   36.65  
Stoke            9    2  -11      -8.39     1.07    -8.23    46.31     9.71   -20.24     0.00     0.02     0.43     0.12P   47.03R   16.79  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Bristol_Rovers 1 0 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              10   24  +15       5.76    90.88     8.09    85.90     9.57    38.43    46.76    66.73    92.94    74.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Wycombe              11   22   +8       5.49    87.91     5.91    64.58     9.07     3.44     0.91     3.06    22.72     6.51P    1.05R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       10   20   +7       3.82    80.53     3.25    72.07     9.48    15.22     5.46    13.80    52.70    22.78P    0.13R    0.00  
Coventry             10   20   +6       5.04    87.46     4.14    68.12     9.36     8.29     2.18     6.71    35.47    12.44P    0.49R    0.00  
Sunderland           10   19   +4       1.01    58.23    -2.65    79.96     9.32    26.68    19.42    40.67    81.68    53.50P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool            11   19   +3       3.02    73.98     1.65    65.90     8.96     5.52     1.14     3.80    26.57     8.69P    0.77R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       11   18   +2       2.13    67.87     0.71    62.81     8.96     1.28     0.52     1.86    16.87     4.82P    1.67R    0.01  
Peterborough         10   17  +11       0.02    49.92     5.74    75.00     9.47    29.32     9.08    22.66    66.29    34.79P    0.04R    0.00  
Doncaster             9   16   +4       1.72    65.22     1.08    72.01     9.68    16.22     5.46    14.07    52.53    23.86P    0.22R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           11   15   +7      -1.15    40.67     5.43    65.09     9.34    14.24     1.18     3.86    26.16     9.03P    1.27R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         11   13   -2      -0.45    46.98     0.68    52.85     9.38   -11.06     0.05     0.24     3.03     0.72P   16.20R    0.42  
Shrewsbury           10   13   -4      -0.24    48.63    -3.39    57.48     9.11    -7.09     0.10     0.48     6.66     1.64P    6.49R    0.09  
Rotherham             9   12   +3      -2.43    27.92    -0.27    67.24    10.39    13.99     2.94     7.86    35.27    15.29P    1.19R    0.00  
Burton_Albion         9   12   +2      -0.96    41.48     1.11    67.08     9.66    12.74     1.98     6.10    33.60    12.91P    0.84R    0.01  
MK_Dons              10   12   -3      -0.38    47.66    -0.76    52.49     9.65   -13.17     0.04     0.20     3.20     0.75P   18.16R    0.48  
Gillingham           10   10   +1      -3.24    23.58     1.86    56.00     9.46    -0.70     0.10     0.42     5.83     1.55P    9.60R    0.17  
Accrington_Stanley   10   10   -5      -1.56    37.33    -1.59    49.42     9.09   -17.17     0.00     0.05     1.11     0.22P   26.57R    0.91  
Rochdale             10   10   -7      -0.82    43.84    -1.94    47.68     9.16   -22.55     0.01     0.01     0.75     0.14P   34.39R    1.57  
Portsmouth            8    9   +0      -4.09    14.50    -3.33    67.54    10.12    14.06     2.66     7.40    36.04    15.43P    1.11R    0.01  
Tranmere             10    9   -5      -0.87    43.45     1.96    44.37     9.47   -24.30     0.00     0.02     0.44     0.07P   48.91R    3.07  
Southend             10    4  -14      -7.30     3.89    -9.90    40.58     9.01   -32.18     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   65.52R    6.99  
AFC_Wimbledon        11    3  -10      -7.94     2.07    -3.29    39.81     8.75   -22.95     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   67.24R    7.15  
Bolton                9   -9  -23      -4.09    12.90   -14.48    23.28     8.96   -48.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.12R   79.12  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Carlisle 1 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter           11   22   +6       3.92    79.94     1.61    76.20     9.51    15.33    15.30    38.60    69.19    46.65P    0.02R    0.00  
Crewe            11   22   +5       6.13    90.24     3.74    72.45     9.64     8.75     8.04    24.80    54.23    30.95P    0.11R    0.01  
Cheltenham       11   21  +10       4.58    83.04     8.06    70.42     9.60    12.28     5.59    19.42    47.27    25.39P    0.15R    0.02  
Forest_Green     11   21   +6       4.40    82.86     3.68    74.22     9.50    13.97    10.90    30.67    62.17    38.46P    0.03R    0.00  
Swindon          11   20   +5       2.90    72.89     1.99    72.54     9.59    11.91     8.29    25.23    55.51    32.67P    0.10R    0.03  
Newport_County   11   20   +5       5.09    86.52     4.99    70.77     9.41     9.56     5.37    19.26    47.98    25.67P    0.15R    0.02  
Grimsby          11   18   +6       3.38    77.29     6.47    64.21     9.40     3.87     1.35     6.45    23.43     9.75P    0.86R    0.20  
Bradford         11   18   +5       0.08    50.43     0.83    77.69     9.92    22.55    21.00    46.14    74.88    55.06P    0.03R    0.00  
Colchester       11   16   +3      -0.59    45.22     0.70    69.36     9.46    11.19     4.32    16.09    42.82    23.24P    0.20R    0.04  
Crawley_Town     11   16   +2       1.84    65.90     3.40    59.37     9.38    -4.92     0.45     2.52    10.82     4.15P    3.11R    0.89  
Cambridge_Utd    11   15   +3       1.96    67.58     5.63    60.34     9.30    -0.14     0.47     2.88    12.80     4.78P    2.38R    0.65  
Plymouth         11   15   +2      -2.62    29.49    -1.88    72.28    10.05    16.01     9.16    26.16    55.20    35.12P    0.15R    0.02  
Northampton      11   15   +2      -0.91    42.92     0.75    66.56     9.70     7.49     2.74    10.64    32.36    16.01P    0.57R    0.16  
Walsall          11   15   -3      -0.84    43.34    -4.24    68.70     9.76     5.70     3.95    14.51    39.50    21.33P    0.44R    0.12  
Port_Vale        11   14   -3       0.91    58.99    -0.40    56.21     9.13   -10.77     0.12     0.91     5.60     1.75P    5.75R    1.93  
Carlisle         11   14   -5      -0.60    45.78    -4.27    62.05     9.62    -4.89     0.78     4.19    17.11     7.06P    2.01R    0.63  
Macclesfield     11   13   -1       0.94    59.67     3.29    49.68     8.88   -17.10     0.01     0.14     1.19     0.30P   18.60R    7.61  
Salford_City     11   11   -8       0.39    55.33    -0.81    41.63     8.93   -35.71     0.00     0.02     0.18     0.05P   54.26R   32.76  
Mansfield        11   10   -4      -7.33     5.61    -7.36    62.83     9.51     3.41     1.02     5.18    19.91     9.58P    1.41R    0.47  
Oldham           11   10   -4      -5.04    14.11    -3.99    61.68     9.66     1.71     0.79     4.11    17.22     7.53P    2.08R    0.60  
Leyton_Orient    11   10   -6      -1.93    34.76    -1.11    45.46     9.40   -25.64     0.00     0.07     0.61     0.17P   35.83R   18.22  
Morecambe        11    7  -10      -4.64    14.71    -4.77    43.63     8.98   -27.13     0.00     0.02     0.23     0.05P   43.19R   23.41  
Scunthorpe       11    6   -8     -10.03     1.50    -9.47    56.88    10.10    -3.58     0.34     1.87     8.68     3.89P    6.75R    2.53  
Stevenage        11    5   -8      -9.17     1.66    -6.85    48.56     9.25   -13.83     0.02     0.11     1.11     0.38P   21.83R    9.67  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Barnet 0 0 Solihull_Moors; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Bromley            14   29   +7       7.83    92.37     4.11    76.37     9.17    12.09    10.35    57.84    20.04P    0.22R    0.00  
Halifax            14   28  +11       8.36    94.22    10.22    76.50     8.83    17.94     9.87    60.39    20.58P    0.13R    0.00  
Yeovil             14   28  +10       2.91    69.84     1.13    86.87     9.13    32.58    51.58    91.24    64.93P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking             14   25   +8       5.65    84.22     7.80    67.81     9.51     6.51     2.43    24.91     7.07P    2.96R    0.10  
Dag_&_Red          14   23   +3       2.98    71.31     1.70    67.79     8.87     4.44     1.66    23.04     6.24P    2.22R    0.05  
Dover_Athletic     14   23   +2       2.70    69.16     0.28    67.56     9.05     2.86     1.74    22.63     6.15P    2.58R    0.12  
Barrow             14   22   +6       1.46    60.70     3.98    67.02     8.95     7.64     1.32    21.85     5.80P    2.62R    0.09  
Notts_County       14   20   +5      -4.13    22.51    -2.57    76.85     9.32    24.66    12.40    62.69    30.16P    0.27R    0.01  
Barnet             13   20   +0       1.62    62.70    -0.95    68.23     9.06     4.63     1.93    25.00     7.21P    2.28R    0.08  
Torquay            14   19   +2       1.43    60.73     4.75    57.42     9.55    -7.11     0.23     4.73     1.10P   21.40R    2.34  
Harrogate_Town     14   19   +0      -1.56    39.39    -2.03    65.10     9.07     3.10     0.99    16.24     4.49P    4.84R    0.21  
Boreham_Wood       14   18   +5      -2.02    36.17     3.80    62.02     8.86     5.23     0.45     9.12     2.41P    7.90R    0.40  
Solihull_Moors     13   18   +4      -2.33    32.50     0.18    69.39     9.33    13.12     2.72    31.17    10.48P    1.93R    0.05  
Maidenhead         14   18   +3       0.45    54.42     5.50    56.63     8.72    -4.97     0.07     2.92     0.60P   21.46R    1.59  
Eastleigh          14   17   -3      -0.77    45.06    -0.69    59.65     8.92    -4.97     0.18     5.49     1.18P   13.81R    0.98  
Hartlepool         14   17   -4      -1.05    42.98    -2.23    56.82     8.76   -10.40     0.08     2.83     0.58P   21.73R    1.83  
Stockport          14   17   -9       3.00    72.37    -0.51    48.71     9.00   -28.10     0.01     0.46     0.08P   57.91R   11.89  
AFC_Fylde          13   16   -5      -3.92    22.67    -8.12    66.48     9.43     2.83     1.40    20.47     6.50P    4.32R    0.18  
Sutton_United      14   15   -2      -3.44    26.25    -0.89    57.20     8.91    -4.43     0.09     3.42     0.78P   20.04R    1.53  
Wrexham            13   14   -3      -5.14    15.67    -5.01    62.12     9.04     1.42     0.42     9.74     2.75P    8.39R    0.47  
Aldershot          14   14   -7      -1.35    40.92    -1.51    50.35     8.49   -17.87     0.01     0.43     0.09P   48.79R    7.61  
Chesterfield       14   12   -8      -7.40     8.40    -8.31    54.20     9.01   -10.77     0.05     1.67     0.41P   31.39R    3.88  
Ebbsfleet_United   14   10  -10      -7.47     7.75    -7.29    54.30     9.03    -9.47     0.03     1.72     0.38P   30.92R    3.89  
Chorley            14   10  -15      -2.07    35.91    -3.35    37.66     8.38   -40.96     0.00     0.01     0.00    91.90R   62.71