Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 28 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Aston_Villa 2 2 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         7   21  +13       5.22    96.14     2.10    89.26     7.58    58.29    43.02    92.00    98.23    99.53    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          7   16  +20      -1.51    27.80     4.11    90.50     6.85    82.49    55.59    95.50    99.16    99.82    99.98     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham          7   12   +1       2.76    77.67     1.89    51.53     8.57    -5.98     0.00     0.05     1.20     3.96    17.08     2.67R    0.25  
Tottenham         7   11   +5      -1.76    29.21     0.01    69.98     8.46    31.57     0.77     6.45    43.12    66.65    89.53     0.00R    0.00  
Leicester         6   11   +3       2.91    81.72     3.23    57.41     8.79     5.47     0.02     0.35     4.68    12.92    40.01     0.63R    0.05  
Chelsea           7   11   +1      -1.25    35.96    -3.15    64.67     8.61    18.33     0.20     1.99    18.98    39.56    73.53     0.06R    0.00  
Bournemouth       7   11   +1       2.18    73.31     2.97    48.28     8.62   -11.42     0.00     0.04     0.56     2.06     9.77     6.42R    1.06  
Arsenal           6   11   +1       1.01    62.18    -1.76    65.19     8.98    17.26     0.27     2.42    21.01    42.34    73.84     0.08R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace    7   11   -1       1.43    66.47    -0.80    48.66     8.45   -10.13     0.00     0.02     0.46     1.93     9.91     5.27R    0.80  
Burnley           7    9   +1       0.62    58.11     3.14    44.23     8.31   -12.39     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.66     4.20    12.57R    2.27  
Man_Utd           6    8   +2      -2.29    25.42    -1.07    61.70     8.80    16.84     0.12     1.15    11.77    27.33    61.43     0.14R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         7    8   +0       0.60    58.93     3.66    42.18     8.51   -14.94     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.43     2.74    19.55R    4.67  
Wolverhampton     7    7   -2      -1.98    29.88    -1.15    44.66     8.32   -11.56     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.60     4.15    11.98R    2.29  
Southampton       7    7   -4      -0.15    50.11     0.04    42.05     8.26   -18.26     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.29     2.25    19.73R    4.47  
Everton           7    7   -6      -2.75    21.98    -5.89    45.98     8.40   -13.11     0.00     0.01     0.21     1.09     5.92     9.39R    1.54  
Brighton          7    6   -5      -0.90    40.60     0.08    36.63     7.88   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.39    41.92R   12.98  
Norwich           7    6   -7       0.61    59.68     2.04    37.99     8.79   -29.23     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.20     1.21    38.41R   12.90  
Aston_Villa       7    5   -3      -2.18    27.99     1.60    35.11     8.33   -26.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.35    50.05R   20.30  
Newcastle         6    5   -4      -2.04    26.38    -1.73    43.42     8.54   -12.71     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.57     3.61    15.31R    3.03  
Watford           7    2  -16      -4.48     7.54    -9.30    32.09     8.08   -39.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13    65.81R   33.37  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Blackburn 1 2 Luton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom        9   19   +7       2.92    75.26     1.20    83.22    10.28    27.61    32.49    50.05    83.08    60.14P    0.02R    0.00  
Swansea          9   18   +7       4.02    82.85     4.56    76.07     9.96    17.82    10.82    22.46    61.11    32.16P    0.13R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest    9   18   +6       5.49    90.33     5.73    73.14    10.08    12.48     6.45    15.00    49.22    22.58P    0.43R    0.03  
Leeds_United     9   17   +8       2.51    72.06     4.87    78.03    10.03    23.19    15.49    29.79    68.80    41.06P    0.08R    0.00  
Preston          9   17   +7       3.28    77.90     4.95    72.86    10.21    14.51     6.66    15.13    48.60    23.12P    0.40R    0.03  
Charlton         9   17   +4       4.81    87.12     4.08    64.27    10.28    -0.75     1.42     3.65    19.13     6.74P    3.56R    0.47  
Sheff_Wed        9   16   +7       2.12    69.04     4.69    69.57    10.12    11.08     3.63     8.97    35.89    15.36P    0.94R    0.09  
Bristol_City     9   16   +4       3.03    75.99     3.08    71.78    10.24    11.38     5.41    12.61    44.15    20.10P    0.61R    0.05  
QPR              9   16   +0       4.88    87.49     2.05    59.51     9.96   -11.66     0.32     1.07     8.60     2.24P    8.51R    1.39  
Fulham           9   15   +7       0.29    52.61     3.50    73.83    10.83    19.13     9.11    19.09    52.86    28.69P    0.53R    0.05  
Blackburn        9   13   +0       0.98    59.83     0.63    62.10    10.08    -2.44     0.75     2.07    13.77     4.42P    5.43R    0.82  
Cardiff          9   13   -1      -0.31    47.35    -2.45    66.12    10.57     2.58     2.18     5.54    25.09    10.50P    2.65R    0.36  
Birmingham       9   13   -3       2.19    70.92    -0.85    59.41     9.86    -9.22     0.32     1.00     8.38     2.45P    8.52R    1.44  
Derby            9   11   -2      -2.21    30.43    -3.27    67.45    10.12     6.52     2.27     6.05    28.51    12.17P    1.69R    0.17  
Hull             9   10   +0      -2.58    27.59    -0.22    59.49    10.19    -2.55     0.50     1.28     9.62     3.13P    8.66R    1.56  
Luton            9   10   -3      -1.17    40.28    -0.95    55.31    10.56   -12.36     0.21     0.66     5.14     1.60P   18.20R    4.50  
Millwall         9   10   -5      -0.20    49.31    -1.96    53.41     9.55   -14.98     0.05     0.15     2.26     0.54P   21.48R    4.75  
Middlesbrough    9    9   -4      -4.20    15.45    -5.35    61.29     9.74    -1.09     0.53     1.54    11.37     4.07P    5.31R    0.81  
Brentford        8    8   -1      -3.50    18.93    -1.85    64.07    10.31     4.86     1.28     3.50    19.07     7.54P    3.59R    0.56  
Reading          9    8   -2      -2.08    31.72     1.36    51.28     9.72   -12.98     0.03     0.13     1.65     0.42P   28.32R    7.42  
Wigan            9    8   -7      -2.42    28.63    -4.23    52.39     9.70   -16.12     0.04     0.14     2.04     0.48P   24.85R    6.41  
Barnsley         8    5   -8      -4.10    14.44    -5.34    48.61    10.25   -20.29     0.02     0.09     1.13     0.32P   39.69R   13.90  
Huddersfield     9    2  -10      -7.62     1.90    -5.92    41.22     9.80   -26.47     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.04P   68.30R   37.34  
Stoke            9    2  -11      -8.43     1.10    -8.30    46.29     9.66   -20.24     0.00     0.03     0.42     0.12P   48.10R   17.83  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Bristol_Rovers 1 0 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich              10   24  +15       5.79    90.95     8.14    85.71     9.69    38.13    46.14    66.06    92.37    74.11P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              11   22   +8       5.53    88.00     5.93    64.56     9.11     3.41     1.07     3.21    22.54     6.51P    1.06R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town       10   20   +7       3.77    80.29     3.19    72.26     9.42    15.57     5.50    14.30    53.33    23.42P    0.14R    0.00  
Coventry             10   20   +6       4.99    87.34     4.10    68.12     9.30     8.33     2.30     6.47    35.60    12.10P    0.55R    0.00  
Sunderland           10   19   +4       0.96    57.71    -2.74    80.08     9.31    26.83    20.27    41.48    82.01    54.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool            11   19   +3       3.01    73.80     1.63    66.03     9.02     5.67     1.20     3.92    27.29     8.93P    0.69R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       11   18   +2       2.17    68.21     0.76    62.82     9.00     1.28     0.50     1.88    16.96     4.84P    1.81R    0.02  
Peterborough         10   17  +11       0.05    50.10     5.78    74.78     9.46    28.96     9.01    22.19    65.37    34.08P    0.07R    0.00  
Doncaster             9   16   +4       1.76    65.82     1.12    71.88     9.70    16.05     5.17    13.90    52.15    23.70P    0.30R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           11   15   +7      -1.21    40.02     5.37    65.30     9.31    14.53     1.25     3.92    27.07     9.46P    1.18R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         11   13   -2      -0.48    47.11     0.58    53.11     9.30   -10.63     0.06     0.23     3.22     0.81P   15.35R    0.35  
Shrewsbury           10   13   -4      -0.30    47.94    -3.45    57.65     9.16    -6.86     0.13     0.55     7.15     1.90P    6.37R    0.08  
Rotherham             9   12   +3      -2.37    28.74    -0.16    66.97    10.45    13.61     2.64     7.60    34.61    14.77P    1.41R    0.02  
Burton_Albion         9   12   +2      -0.97    41.17     1.07    67.15     9.63    12.87     2.02     6.18    33.51    13.13P    0.82R    0.00  
MK_Dons              10   12   -3      -0.32    47.85    -0.63    52.20     9.56   -13.70     0.04     0.18     2.86     0.62P   18.81R    0.55  
Gillingham           10   10   +1      -3.27    23.43     1.79    56.19     9.46    -0.42     0.10     0.49     6.19     1.69P    9.21R    0.15  
Accrington_Stanley   10   10   -5      -1.54    37.44    -1.55    49.45     9.13   -17.15     0.01     0.05     1.21     0.22P   26.66R    0.97  
Rochdale             10   10   -7      -0.81    43.86    -1.96    47.66     9.05   -22.56     0.00     0.02     0.64     0.10P   34.35R    1.51  
Portsmouth            8    9   +0      -4.03    14.89    -3.27    67.40    10.08    13.81     2.61     7.32    35.36    15.11P    1.04R    0.00  
Tranmere             10    9   -5      -0.88    43.30     1.96    44.20     9.42   -24.50     0.00     0.03     0.42     0.08P   49.64R    3.14  
Southend             10    4  -14      -7.30     3.71    -9.91    40.60     9.09   -32.15     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   65.14R    7.18  
AFC_Wimbledon        11    3  -10      -7.93     2.02    -3.30    39.81     8.69   -22.91     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   67.53R    6.94  
Bolton                9   -9  -23      -4.08    12.84   -14.44    23.38     9.02   -48.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.85R   79.06  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Carlisle 1 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter           11   22   +6       3.99    80.18     1.69    76.07     9.48    15.18    14.77    37.95    68.78    45.94P    0.03R    0.00  
Crewe            11   22   +5       6.18    90.42     3.82    72.28     9.66     8.48     7.65    24.23    53.88    30.59P    0.12R    0.02  
Cheltenham       11   21  +10       4.66    83.36     8.15    70.30     9.66    12.11     5.71    19.13    46.86    25.05P    0.14R    0.02  
Forest_Green     11   21   +6       4.42    83.16     3.70    74.15     9.41    13.89    10.29    30.32    61.92    38.13P    0.06R    0.01  
Swindon          11   20   +5       2.94    73.31     2.05    72.37     9.59    11.74     7.94    24.82    54.55    31.98P    0.09R    0.02  
Newport_County   11   20   +5       5.02    86.06     4.90    70.86     9.38     9.67     5.44    19.35    48.04    25.79P    0.11R    0.01  
Grimsby          11   18   +6       3.47    77.60     6.59    63.98     9.39     3.56     1.34     6.14    22.49     9.43P    0.89R    0.20  
Bradford         11   18   +5      -0.07    49.31     0.62    78.03    10.00    23.03    22.17    47.53    75.56    56.12P    0.04R    0.01  
Colchester       11   16   +3      -0.66    44.48     0.61    69.40     9.59    11.25     4.83    16.50    42.99    23.61P    0.23R    0.04  
Crawley_Town     11   16   +2       1.81    65.53     3.38    59.46     9.37    -4.77     0.40     2.33    11.28     4.11P    2.99R    0.84  
Cambridge_Utd    11   15   +3       1.97    67.62     5.68    60.45     9.31    -0.05     0.46     2.88    13.15     4.93P    2.33R    0.64  
Plymouth         11   15   +2      -2.63    29.14    -1.91    72.36     9.96    16.12     9.08    26.52    55.82    35.34P    0.17R    0.03  
Northampton      11   15   +2      -0.80    43.93     0.90    66.48     9.55     7.39     2.48    10.04    31.84    15.45P    0.52R    0.15  
Walsall          11   15   -3      -0.84    43.55    -4.27    68.87     9.84     5.93     4.06    15.16    40.47    22.24P    0.41R    0.11  
Port_Vale        11   14   -3       1.03    60.23    -0.24    55.88     9.12   -11.27     0.13     0.88     5.32     1.73P    6.25R    2.07  
Carlisle         11   14   -5      -0.64    45.37    -4.33    62.18     9.62    -4.72     0.83     4.37    17.42     7.30P    1.97R    0.54  
Macclesfield     11   13   -1       0.93    59.45     3.27    49.76     8.98   -17.02     0.02     0.16     1.32     0.35P   18.46R    7.68  
Salford_City     11   11   -8       0.30    54.74    -0.90    41.76     8.96   -35.59     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.03P   53.52R   32.25  
Mansfield        11   10   -4      -7.41     5.50    -7.46    63.05     9.47     3.72     1.16     5.45    20.40     9.95P    1.23R    0.38  
Oldham           11   10   -4      -5.02    14.01    -4.00    61.70     9.65     1.71     0.83     4.14    16.94     7.36P    2.10R    0.64  
Leyton_Orient    11   10   -6      -1.96    34.80    -1.17    45.30     9.32   -25.85     0.00     0.09     0.58     0.16P   36.38R   18.79  
Morecambe        11    7  -10      -4.72    14.24    -4.86    43.76     9.05   -26.96     0.00     0.02     0.24     0.08P   42.95R   23.05  
Scunthorpe       11    6   -8     -10.02     1.51    -9.37    56.88    10.17    -3.63     0.39     1.90     8.91     4.02P    6.80R    2.69  
Stevenage        11    5   -8      -9.18     1.62    -6.86    48.54     9.27   -13.93     0.00     0.09     1.07     0.31P   22.20R    9.81  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 September 2019, Barnet 0 0 Solihull_Moors; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Bromley            14   29   +7       7.78    92.29     4.05    76.38     9.17    12.17    10.25    58.15    20.13P    0.20R    0.00  
Halifax            14   28  +11       8.36    94.05    10.19    76.64     8.88    18.13    10.48    60.72    21.40P    0.12R    0.00  
Yeovil             14   28  +10       2.93    69.92     1.17    86.73     9.17    32.37    50.79    91.03    64.22P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking             14   25   +8       5.60    83.96     7.72    67.89     9.58     6.61     2.59    25.26     7.28P    3.00R    0.11  
Dag_&_Red          14   23   +3       2.95    70.79     1.66    67.87     8.85     4.54     1.68    23.31     6.29P    2.26R    0.05  
Dover_Athletic     14   23   +2       2.63    68.72     0.19    67.54     8.97     2.82     1.75    22.63     6.25P    2.52R    0.13  
Barrow             14   22   +6       1.39    60.24     3.89    67.11     8.97     7.77     1.61    21.78     6.02P    2.54R    0.09  
Notts_County       14   20   +5      -4.11    22.59    -2.53    76.74     9.32    24.54    12.11    62.03    29.60P    0.25R    0.00  
Barnet             13   20   +0       1.59    62.55    -0.99    68.36     9.09     4.80     1.87    25.50     7.37P    2.07R    0.08  
Torquay            14   19   +2       1.44    60.67     4.74    57.45     9.51    -7.04     0.23     4.62     1.00P   21.29R    2.25  
Harrogate_Town     14   19   +0      -1.62    38.70    -2.12    65.32     9.07     3.44     1.06    16.43     4.58P    4.56R    0.21  
Boreham_Wood       14   18   +5      -1.90    36.74     3.95    61.75     8.90     4.85     0.42     8.96     2.16P    8.45R    0.44  
Solihull_Moors     13   18   +4      -2.36    32.42     0.16    69.55     9.24    13.37     2.91    31.53    10.70P    1.76R    0.06  
Maidenhead         14   18   +3       0.50    54.63     5.57    56.49     8.72    -5.15     0.08     2.75     0.50P   21.70R    1.74  
Eastleigh          14   17   -3      -0.77    45.25    -0.67    59.69     9.00    -4.93     0.18     5.76     1.27P   13.84R    1.00  
Hartlepool         14   17   -4      -1.01    43.30    -2.21    56.76     8.80   -10.48     0.08     2.85     0.64P   21.94R    1.84  
Stockport          14   17   -9       3.04    72.79    -0.52    48.58     8.89   -28.29     0.01     0.45     0.08P   58.58R   12.07  
AFC_Fylde          13   16   -5      -3.87    23.32    -8.05    66.41     9.46     2.67     1.32    20.37     6.32P    4.17R    0.18  
Sutton_United      14   15   -2      -3.42    26.28    -0.86    57.17     8.90    -4.56     0.11     3.32     0.79P   20.06R    1.71  
Wrexham            13   14   -3      -5.09    15.95    -4.92    61.91     9.03     1.23     0.41     8.97     2.61P    8.74R    0.49  
Aldershot          14   14   -7      -1.33    41.15    -1.50    50.34     8.46   -17.83     0.01     0.43     0.07P   48.48R    7.75  
Chesterfield       14   12   -8      -7.38     8.44    -8.22    54.06     8.96   -10.99     0.03     1.57     0.37P   31.75R    4.01  
Ebbsfleet_United   14   10  -10      -7.44     7.66    -7.26    54.41     9.04    -9.41     0.03     1.58     0.34P   30.45R    3.97  
Chorley            14   10  -15      -2.14    35.25    -3.45    37.88     8.51   -40.64     0.00     0.01     0.00    91.26R   61.81