Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 27 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2019, Arsenal 3 2 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         6   18  +12       4.39    94.09     2.25    88.79     7.90    59.66    44.13    91.02    97.76    99.35    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          6   13  +18      -2.14    19.64     3.86    89.73     7.14    81.62    54.16    94.16    98.75    99.70    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         6   11   +3       2.88    81.33     3.23    57.29     8.88     5.30     0.04     0.48     4.85    13.25    39.89     0.70R    0.08  
Arsenal           6   11   +1       1.03    62.20    -1.67    65.60     9.06    18.01     0.36     3.41    23.11    45.25    75.51     0.07R    0.01  
West_Ham          6   11   +1       3.05    82.68     1.73    51.51     8.80    -6.58     0.00     0.08     1.41     4.47    18.03     3.26R    0.45  
Bournemouth       6   10   +1       2.64    79.36     3.09    49.10     8.92   -10.56     0.00     0.06     0.87     2.87    12.26     6.18R    1.09  
Tottenham         6    8   +4      -2.53    20.45     0.43    69.77     8.64    32.98     0.98     7.36    43.13    66.21    88.93     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd           6    8   +2      -2.33    24.91    -1.13    61.43     8.83    16.30     0.12     1.28    11.50    27.12    60.00     0.17R    0.02  
Burnley           6    8   +1       0.97    63.40     3.10    44.46     8.49   -12.49     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.80     4.68    13.51R    2.91  
Sheff_Utd         6    8   +1       1.20    66.01     3.35    42.47     8.86   -16.21     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.58     3.37    20.95R    5.48  
Chelsea           6    8   -1      -1.92    28.44    -3.67    63.56     8.84    17.07     0.19     2.08    17.12    35.49    69.06     0.11R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace    6    8   -3       0.45    56.77    -1.78    46.81     8.68   -12.59     0.00     0.03     0.33     1.39     7.51     9.16R    1.75  
Southampton       6    7   -3       0.41    56.72    -0.39    42.15     8.49   -19.55     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.41     2.76    20.99R    5.32  
Everton           6    7   -4      -2.25    25.50    -5.51    46.62     8.72   -12.48     0.00     0.02     0.38     1.49     7.59     9.53R    1.71  
Brighton          6    6   -3      -0.43    45.78     0.58    37.48     8.19   -23.06     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.72    39.73R   12.70  
Norwich           6    6   -5       1.34    68.67     3.04    39.58     9.20   -26.97     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.36     2.13    33.46R   11.67  
Newcastle         6    5   -4      -1.96    27.43    -1.61    43.64     8.46   -12.39     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.57     3.76    15.40R    3.32  
Aston_Villa       6    4   -3      -1.77    30.46     1.61    35.58     8.61   -26.32     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.58    49.21R   20.67  
Wolverhampton     6    4   -4      -2.98    18.62    -2.17    42.63     8.59   -14.46     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.48     3.04    19.07R    4.84  
Watford           6    2  -14      -3.74    10.28    -8.33    33.85     8.41   -37.29     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.28    58.51R   27.97  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 27 September 2019, Fulham 2 0 Wigan; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Nott'm_Forest    9   18   +6       5.54    90.68     5.81    72.96    10.05    12.41     6.01    14.04    48.34    21.73P    0.38R    0.02  
Leeds_United     8   17   +9       3.90    83.77     5.89    80.50    10.17    25.91    22.19    38.85    76.29    49.39P    0.04R    0.00  
Swansea          8   17   +7       4.86    89.14     5.25    77.50    10.24    19.43    14.25    27.18    65.83    37.37P    0.12R    0.00  
Preston          8   16   +7       3.76    82.73     5.15    73.29    10.35    14.73     7.51    16.24    49.79    24.17P    0.41R    0.03  
West_Brom        8   16   +5       1.94    68.14     0.19    80.86    10.44    24.53    24.27    40.71    76.52    51.38P    0.08R    0.00  
QPR              8   16   +2       5.57    92.06     2.86    61.41    10.23    -8.89     0.65     1.94    12.42     3.73P    6.12R    0.97  
Fulham           9   15   +7       0.31    52.63     3.52    73.37    10.63    18.44     8.18    17.42    51.05    26.82P    0.45R    0.05  
Bristol_City     8   15   +4       3.47    80.71     3.12    71.80    10.35    10.93     5.70    12.79    43.81    20.01P    0.63R    0.05  
Charlton         8   14   +3       3.26    79.33     3.19    61.20    10.48    -3.90     0.82     2.08    12.80     4.10P    6.59R    1.04  
Sheff_Wed        8   13   +4       0.82    58.27     2.19    65.50    10.15     4.73     1.55     4.16    22.54     8.45P    2.32R    0.29  
Blackburn        8   13   +1       2.47    73.81     1.75    64.48    10.26     0.14     1.22     3.44    19.18     6.77P    3.38R    0.51  
Birmingham       8   13   -2       3.06    78.69    -0.62    60.88    10.08    -7.76     0.51     1.54    10.69     3.37P    6.80R    1.06  
Cardiff          8   12   -1       0.05    50.61    -2.52    66.72    10.59     3.01     2.42     6.01    26.38    11.06P    2.29R    0.26  
Hull             8    9   +0      -2.18    29.65    -0.24    59.89    10.44    -2.37     0.50     1.54    10.63     3.61P    8.22R    1.50  
Middlesbrough    8    9   -1      -3.21    20.43    -2.85    64.90     9.88     5.09     1.23     3.49    20.12     8.17P    2.44R    0.34  
Millwall         8    9   -5       0.14    53.20    -1.99    53.85     9.71   -14.70     0.04     0.16     2.74     0.61P   20.22R    4.69  
Brentford        8    8   -1      -3.44    19.14    -1.73    64.01    10.24     4.91     1.21     3.34    18.75     7.34P    3.47R    0.49  
Derby            8    8   -3      -3.34    20.45    -3.59    65.71    10.24     5.41     1.58     4.34    23.36     9.58P    2.59R    0.33  
Wigan            9    8   -7      -2.37    28.65    -4.14    52.64     9.69   -15.62     0.03     0.11     2.05     0.50P   23.75R    5.79  
Reading          8    7   -2      -2.19    29.20     0.67    50.94     9.92   -14.11     0.03     0.13     1.73     0.45P   29.43R    8.19  
Luton            8    7   -4      -2.77    25.16    -1.98    52.42    10.77   -15.46     0.09     0.35     3.26     0.95P   26.71R    7.63  
Barnsley         8    5   -8      -4.15    14.06    -5.47    48.55    10.23   -20.25     0.03     0.09     1.13     0.30P   39.26R   13.61  
Stoke            9    2  -11      -8.48     0.98    -8.41    46.38     9.63   -19.97     0.01     0.02     0.45     0.10P   47.30R   17.55  
Huddersfield     8    1  -10      -7.34     1.20    -6.04    41.41     9.93   -26.66     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   67.01R   35.58  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 27 September 2019, Blackpool 2 1 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich               9   21  +12       5.51    90.70     7.37    83.80     9.82    34.71    40.19    60.33    89.92    69.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry              9   19   +6       5.41    90.44     4.19    68.50     9.47     8.35     3.06     8.29    39.04    14.44P    0.62R    0.01  
Wycombe              10   19   +5       4.28    83.11     3.48    61.00     9.20    -2.71     0.52     1.64    14.18     3.69P    3.65R    0.03  
Blackpool            11   19   +3       2.97    73.75     1.58    66.31     8.99     6.08     1.53     4.73    29.79    10.12P    0.80R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        9   17   +4       2.53    72.90     0.85    68.64     9.59     9.46     3.39     8.80    39.94    15.59P    0.62R    0.01  
Sunderland            9   16   +3       0.11    50.42    -2.57    79.60     9.50    27.82    21.79    42.04    81.76    54.73P    0.03R    0.00  
Doncaster             8   15   +4       2.05    69.35     1.02    71.83     9.91    15.44     6.41    15.37    53.62    25.02P    0.32R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       10   15   +1       0.68    56.47     0.03    60.41     9.22    -1.04     0.40     1.45    13.02     3.80P    4.16R    0.06  
Peterborough          9   14  +10      -0.76    43.05     6.16    74.14     9.71    29.60     9.71    22.60    64.23    34.27P    0.13R    0.00  
Shrewsbury            9   13   -1       0.66    57.05    -1.09    60.93     9.37    -0.99     0.47     1.72    14.27     4.34P    3.94R    0.05  
Lincoln_City         11   13   -2      -0.51    46.75     0.59    52.86     9.34   -11.12     0.06     0.21     3.21     0.72P   18.39R    0.56  
Oxford_Utd           10   12   +4      -1.99    33.15     3.73    62.50     9.56     9.64     0.85     2.73    19.77     6.47P    3.02R    0.02  
Rotherham             8   12   +4      -1.18    37.80     0.49    69.52    10.70    16.56     5.56    12.94    45.42    21.63P    1.04R    0.01  
Burton_Albion         9   12   +2      -0.93    41.90     1.17    67.40     9.59    13.27     2.49     7.12    36.14    14.49P    1.00R    0.01  
MK_Dons               9   12   -2       0.25    53.26    -1.06    52.83     9.84   -14.12     0.08     0.31     3.86     0.93P   19.92R    0.63  
Gillingham            9   10   +4      -2.61    27.04     3.61    58.26     9.72     3.65     0.28     1.03    10.51     3.00P    7.62R    0.12  
Rochdale              9   10   -4       0.21    53.66     0.47    50.87     9.42   -16.61     0.02     0.13     2.14     0.41P   24.96R    0.86  
Tranmere              9    9   -2      -0.65    45.34     2.84    46.04     9.58   -20.63     0.01     0.02     0.76     0.14P   44.32R    2.56  
Accrington_Stanley    9    7   -6      -3.16    22.39    -2.55    46.89     9.38   -20.08     0.00     0.05     0.78     0.14P   40.60R    2.30  
Portsmouth            7    6   -1      -4.78     9.30    -2.84    67.41    10.19    15.64     3.16     8.50    37.27    16.76P    1.33R    0.01  
Southend              9    4  -13      -5.97     6.39    -8.96    43.14     9.34   -29.52     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.04P   57.01R    5.05  
AFC_Wimbledon        10    3   -9      -7.41     2.31    -3.80    40.14     8.85   -23.62     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   68.57R    7.48  
Bolton                8   -9  -22      -3.55    15.43   -14.73    23.64     9.16   -49.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.93R   80.23  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2019, Bradford 3 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter           10   22   +8       5.27    88.52     3.61    79.17     9.58    19.61    22.51    50.48    79.67    58.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe            10   21   +5       6.50    92.71     3.75    72.42     9.91     8.06     7.63    24.53    54.60    30.73P    0.12R    0.02  
Cheltenham       10   20  +10       5.16    87.35     8.37    71.02     9.77    12.52     5.95    21.11    50.18    27.41P    0.19R    0.04  
Swindon          10   20   +7       4.09    82.10     3.71    75.32     9.81    15.95    12.73    35.00    66.63    43.01P    0.06R    0.01  
Forest_Green     10   18   +2       3.78    80.71     1.10    70.74     9.62     7.41     5.27    18.91    48.04    25.77P    0.20R    0.05  
Bradford         10   17   +5       0.44    53.49     0.81    78.20    10.14    22.64    20.98    47.40    76.42    56.23P    0.04R    0.00  
Newport_County   10   17   +3       3.61    79.77     3.18    67.49     9.52     5.18     2.66    11.14    35.10    16.52P    0.47R    0.12  
Crawley_Town     10   16   +3       2.85    74.20     3.89    61.27     9.58    -2.95     0.67     3.80    15.77     6.09P    2.32R    0.73  
Grimsby          10   15   +4       1.93    67.59     4.70    60.60     9.42    -0.84     0.52     3.09    14.20     5.24P    2.71R    0.76  
Colchester       10   15   +3      -0.02    50.29     1.01    70.29     9.69    11.96     5.11    18.55    47.54    26.49P    0.26R    0.06  
Cambridge_Utd    10   14   +3       2.26    70.84     5.58    60.48     9.44    -0.51     0.44     2.88    13.78     4.95P    2.94R    0.92  
Northampton      10   14   +2      -0.22    48.63     1.21    67.24     9.91     7.97     3.10    12.17    35.41    17.71P    0.63R    0.20  
Port_Vale        10   13   -3       1.44    64.48    -0.28    56.08     9.23   -11.20     0.12     0.94     5.62     1.83P    7.25R    2.58  
Plymouth         10   12   +1      -4.01    19.24    -2.54    70.08    10.32    14.18     6.16    20.16    47.39    28.40P    0.40R    0.12  
Macclesfield     10   12   -1       0.99    60.55     2.89    49.56     9.03   -17.85     0.02     0.14     1.35     0.32P   21.21R    9.22  
Walsall          10   12   -4      -2.22    31.21    -4.90    66.37     9.98     3.76     2.32    10.20    31.78    16.24P    0.96R    0.30  
Salford_City     10   11   -4       0.56    56.90     1.28    44.71     9.22   -28.52     0.01     0.05     0.49     0.12P   42.06R   23.30  
Carlisle         10   11   -6      -1.95    33.64    -4.81    60.03     9.86    -6.57     0.48     2.98    13.53     5.38P    3.87R    1.39  
Mansfield        10   10   -3      -6.09     8.22    -6.57    64.81     9.66     5.19     1.65     7.78    26.83    13.39P    1.04R    0.30  
Oldham           10   10   -3      -3.94    18.96    -3.33    63.64     9.84     3.52     1.28     6.29    23.18    10.82P    1.55R    0.51  
Leyton_Orient    10    9   -6      -1.59    36.98    -1.25    46.14     9.65   -24.51     0.02     0.12     0.93     0.29P   36.00R   19.32  
Morecambe        10    6  -10      -4.50    13.98    -5.14    43.88     9.24   -27.25     0.00     0.03     0.35     0.07P   44.96R   26.34  
Scunthorpe       10    5   -8      -9.73     1.29    -9.55    56.96    10.43    -4.16     0.35     2.08     9.71     4.32P    7.82R    3.20  
Stevenage        10    4   -8      -8.71     1.47    -6.73    49.12     9.44   -13.60     0.02     0.17     1.50     0.48P   22.94R   10.51  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 September 2019, AFC_Fylde 3 2 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Bromley            13   29   +9       8.43    94.74     4.88    77.94     9.39    14.43    15.68    63.51    25.81P    0.19R    0.00  
Halifax            13   25   +9       6.96    91.21     8.56    74.10     9.11    14.85     7.48    48.71    16.54P    0.45R    0.01  
Woking             13   25   +9       6.71    89.25     8.36    70.04     9.82     8.78     4.54    32.67    10.39P    2.01R    0.05  
Yeovil             13   25   +8       2.22    65.86     0.61    84.70     9.47    29.86    42.96    86.09    57.22P    0.03R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     13   23   +4       3.61    75.53     1.60    69.83     9.26     6.13     3.60    30.53     9.30P    1.65R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red          13   22   +3       3.61    75.71     2.10    69.51     9.14     6.43     2.83    29.39     8.30P    1.72R    0.06  
Barrow             13   19   +4       0.41    53.58     2.87    64.87     9.21     4.85     1.11    15.83     4.32P    5.12R    0.20  
Barnet             12   19   +0       1.84    64.69    -1.14    68.67     9.38     4.67     2.71    26.64     8.43P    2.48R    0.11  
Maidenhead         13   18   +5       1.34    61.13     6.77    58.23     9.07    -2.67     0.17     4.80     1.05P   17.73R    1.33  
Solihull_Moors     12   17   +4      -2.15    33.19    -0.05    69.88     9.55    13.36     3.91    32.72    11.71P    1.94R    0.07  
Notts_County       13   17   +3      -5.04    17.12    -3.50    74.58     9.66    21.77     9.69    52.46    24.49P    0.65R    0.02  
Stockport          13   17   -5       3.17    73.92     1.42    52.56     9.46   -20.05     0.05     1.52     0.30P   41.02R    6.04  
Torquay            13   16   -2       1.13    59.76     2.85    53.03     9.66   -15.56     0.11     1.90     0.48P   38.56R    6.35  
Harrogate_Town     13   16   -2      -2.74    30.36    -3.33    63.08     9.34     0.49     0.80    11.69     3.35P    7.99R    0.38  
AFC_Fylde          12   16   -3      -3.11    26.83    -7.10    68.64     9.65     6.01     2.92    27.51     9.44P    2.90R    0.11  
Eastleigh          13   16   -3      -0.25    48.94    -0.42    60.23     9.21    -4.68     0.32     6.80     1.65P   13.30R    0.96  
Hartlepool         13   16   -4      -0.74    44.91    -2.33    56.80     9.04   -11.04     0.09     3.03     0.69P   22.92R    1.98  
Boreham_Wood       13   15   +4      -3.39    26.15     3.20    59.71     9.09     3.21     0.30     6.28     1.70P   13.27R    0.87  
Sutton_United      13   15   +0      -2.72    30.14     0.12    59.25     9.18    -1.53     0.24     5.84     1.46P   14.94R    1.10  
Aldershot          13   14   -6      -0.42    47.73    -1.15    51.86     8.76   -16.70     0.01     0.76     0.15P   42.45R    5.97  
Wrexham            12   11   -4      -6.36     9.36    -5.39    60.33     9.27     0.25     0.35     7.20     2.10P   12.64R    1.03  
Ebbsfleet_United   13   10   -9      -6.45    10.25    -6.78    56.01     9.27    -8.05     0.09     2.76     0.73P   25.80R    2.91  
Chesterfield       13    9   -9      -8.57     4.50    -8.56    52.62     9.24   -11.74     0.03     1.34     0.37P   38.62R    5.72  
Chorley            13    9  -15      -2.09    35.06    -3.57    37.28     8.87   -43.08     0.00     0.01     0.00P   91.64R   64.70