Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 26 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2019, Arsenal 3 2 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         6   18  +12       4.38    94.08     2.25    88.80     7.87    59.67    44.04    91.15    97.82    99.34    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          6   13  +18      -2.13    19.83     3.90    89.76     7.14    81.65    54.18    94.35    98.78    99.69    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         6   11   +3       2.89    81.43     3.22    57.38     8.85     5.43     0.02     0.48     4.98    13.56    39.99     0.65R    0.08  
Arsenal           6   11   +1       1.05    62.94    -1.62    65.41     9.02    17.56     0.39     3.18    22.45    44.04    74.67     0.08R    0.00  
West_Ham          6   11   +1       3.01    82.25     1.67    51.66     8.75    -6.34     0.00     0.10     1.41     4.57    18.07     2.99R    0.37  
Bournemouth       6   10   +1       2.69    79.75     3.16    48.98     8.91   -10.72     0.00     0.04     0.83     2.92    12.10     6.28R    1.08  
Tottenham         6    8   +4      -2.55    20.51     0.41    69.74     8.70    32.94     1.02     7.55    43.37    66.22    88.65     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           6    8   +2      -2.37    24.52    -1.18    61.50     8.77    16.48     0.11     1.13    11.48    27.03    60.80     0.18R    0.01  
Burnley           6    8   +1       0.95    63.22     3.08    44.36     8.47   -12.58     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.65     4.47    13.52R    2.73  
Sheff_Utd         6    8   +1       1.20    65.85     3.39    42.46     8.83   -16.34     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.55     3.28    20.79R    5.46  
Chelsea           6    8   -1      -1.96    28.36    -3.70    63.71     8.90    17.30     0.22     1.97    17.34    36.29    69.45     0.12R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace    6    8   -3       0.47    57.06    -1.74    46.72     8.69   -12.77     0.00     0.01     0.34     1.39     7.22     9.43R    1.85  
Southampton       6    7   -3       0.40    56.29    -0.39    42.10     8.48   -19.72     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.41     2.76    21.08R    5.34  
Everton           6    7   -4      -2.36    24.61    -5.68    47.03     8.73   -11.81     0.00     0.02     0.49     1.74     8.02     8.70R    1.60  
Brighton          6    6   -3      -0.43    45.75     0.59    37.40     8.09   -23.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.76    39.99R   12.48  
Norwich           6    6   -5       1.37    68.86     3.05    39.66     9.25   -26.76     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.36     2.22    33.08R   11.38  
Newcastle         6    5   -4      -1.98    27.06    -1.63    43.46     8.51   -12.69     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.59     3.73    15.72R    3.45  
Aston_Villa       6    4   -3      -1.71    31.30     1.67    35.59     8.72   -26.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.63    49.00R   20.81  
Wolverhampton     6    4   -4      -2.97    18.75    -2.14    42.69     8.65   -14.27     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.47     2.96    18.96R    4.85  
Watford           6    2  -14      -3.69    10.73    -8.28    33.68     8.38   -37.52     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.28    59.42R   28.49  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2019, West_Brom 4 2 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     8   17   +9       3.92    84.00     5.93    80.56    10.15    26.03    23.22    40.31    77.39    50.89P    0.04R    0.00  
Swansea          8   17   +7       4.80    89.01     5.14    77.71    10.19    19.72    14.84    28.90    67.98    39.11P    0.13R    0.01  
Preston          8   16   +7       3.81    82.93     5.19    73.34    10.32    14.76     7.81    16.80    51.42    25.07P    0.47R    0.05  
West_Brom        8   16   +5       1.86    67.24     0.07    80.82    10.35    24.46    24.68    41.32    77.31    52.24P    0.05R    0.00  
QPR              8   16   +2       5.55    91.86     2.79    61.65    10.20    -8.50     0.67     2.06    13.13     3.90P    6.11R    0.88  
Nott'm_Forest    8   15   +5       4.14    85.72     5.11    70.79    10.24    10.69     4.36    10.63    41.27    17.59P    0.80R    0.08  
Bristol_City     8   15   +4       3.49    81.08     3.16    71.88    10.33    11.06     5.94    13.25    45.30    20.64P    0.66R    0.06  
Charlton         8   14   +3       3.21    79.22     3.14    61.48    10.38    -3.41     0.80     2.25    13.41     4.47P    6.45R    1.07  
Sheff_Wed        8   13   +4       0.86    58.60     2.25    65.15    10.12     4.26     1.58     4.18    22.31     8.32P    2.71R    0.30  
Blackburn        8   13   +1       2.44    73.31     1.73    64.43    10.27     0.10     1.33     3.65    20.16     7.02P    3.82R    0.56  
Birmingham       8   13   -2       3.12    79.36    -0.53    60.72     9.94    -8.02     0.48     1.45    10.57     3.12P    7.08R    1.14  
Fulham           8   12   +5      -0.63    43.95     2.56    71.18    11.07    15.67     6.58    14.36    43.96    22.77P    1.11R    0.13  
Cardiff          8   12   -1       0.09    51.32    -2.48    66.57    10.77     2.86     2.68     6.34    27.30    11.71P    2.72R    0.36  
Hull             8    9   +0      -2.18    29.60    -0.23    60.09    10.37    -1.95     0.58     1.72    11.40     3.90P    8.35R    1.68  
Middlesbrough    8    9   -1      -3.12    21.20    -2.75    64.52     9.85     4.58     1.06     3.25    19.68     7.79P    2.83R    0.33  
Millwall         8    9   -5       0.11    52.56    -2.04    53.91     9.67   -14.63     0.09     0.27     2.81     0.72P   20.77R    4.90  
Brentford        8    8   -1      -3.47    18.96    -1.81    64.28    10.26     5.31     1.35     3.69    20.14     8.03P    3.61R    0.57  
Derby            8    8   -3      -3.30    20.54    -3.51    65.63    10.29     5.34     1.65     4.62    23.85     9.86P    2.83R    0.39  
Wigan            8    8   -5      -1.61    35.07    -3.08    54.28     9.87   -13.30     0.11     0.32     3.36     0.90P   19.95R    4.42  
Reading          8    7   -2      -2.16    29.39     0.70    50.68     9.87   -14.43     0.04     0.15     1.69     0.42P   31.17R    8.79  
Luton            8    7   -4      -2.75    25.51    -1.93    52.21    10.85   -15.70     0.10     0.35     3.37     0.98P   28.34R    8.38  
Barnsley         8    5   -8      -4.20    13.92    -5.57    48.59    10.30   -20.16     0.02     0.09     1.20     0.31P   40.54R   14.53  
Stoke            8    2  -10      -7.31     1.76    -7.76    48.14     9.81   -18.10     0.01     0.03     0.78     0.19P   41.16R   14.01  
Huddersfield     8    1  -10      -7.38     1.20    -6.08    41.39     9.99   -26.64     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.04P   68.31R   37.35  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 1 3 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich               9   21  +12       5.48    90.53     7.31    84.05     9.81    35.08    41.25    61.22    90.51    69.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry              9   19   +6       5.46    90.79     4.26    68.36     9.47     8.11     2.98     8.16    38.73    14.01P    0.66R    0.00  
Wycombe              10   19   +5       4.37    83.89     3.65    61.02     9.22    -2.67     0.52     1.75    14.49     3.85P    3.55R    0.03  
Fleetwood_Town        9   17   +4       2.57    73.02     0.90    68.60     9.64     9.41     3.35     9.03    39.99    15.91P    0.62R    0.00  
Sunderland            9   16   +3       0.14    50.78    -2.52    79.33     9.42    27.37    20.83    40.87    81.16    53.77P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool            10   16   +2       1.92    66.92     1.43    64.67     9.16     5.10     1.06     3.53    24.65     8.06P    1.46R    0.01  
Doncaster             8   15   +4       2.00    68.68     0.93    72.24     9.94    16.13     6.95    16.58    55.03    26.33P    0.33R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       10   15   +1       0.70    56.70     0.02    60.43     9.20    -1.01     0.43     1.39    13.06     3.80P    3.99R    0.05  
Peterborough          9   14  +10      -0.76    42.79     6.15    74.13     9.72    29.54     9.67    22.53    64.67    34.27P    0.16R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         10   13   -1       0.28    53.33     0.70    54.20     9.58   -10.01     0.12     0.44     4.72     1.22P   15.26R    0.39  
Shrewsbury            9   13   -1       0.73    57.63    -0.97    60.83     9.37    -1.16     0.46     1.65    14.22     4.13P    4.05R    0.03  
Oxford_Utd           10   12   +4      -2.02    32.92     3.67    62.56     9.55     9.70     0.80     2.67    20.02     6.46P    2.97R    0.03  
Rotherham             8   12   +4      -1.19    37.74     0.50    69.55    10.73    16.64     5.59    13.12    45.95    21.97P    1.05R    0.01  
Burton_Albion         9   12   +2      -0.94    41.93     1.15    67.26     9.58    13.08     2.40     6.79    35.85    14.13P    0.99R    0.01  
MK_Dons               9   12   -2       0.25    53.10    -1.05    52.76     9.81   -14.26     0.06     0.30     3.83     0.94P   19.99R    0.70  
Gillingham            9   10   +4      -2.66    26.65     3.54    58.30     9.74     3.71     0.30     1.09    10.80     3.18P    7.55R    0.13  
Rochdale              9   10   -4       0.18    53.20     0.40    50.94     9.37   -16.46     0.02     0.09     2.04     0.38P   24.92R    0.99  
Tranmere              9    9   -2      -0.59    45.83     2.95    45.90     9.59   -20.78     0.01     0.03     0.78     0.13P   44.97R    2.71  
Accrington_Stanley    9    7   -6      -3.21    22.19    -2.59    46.88     9.35   -20.10     0.01     0.05     0.84     0.16P   40.38R    2.32  
Portsmouth            7    6   -1      -4.88     8.85    -2.99    67.57    10.21    15.92     3.20     8.70    38.28    17.36P    1.37R    0.02  
Southend              9    4  -13      -5.95     6.44    -8.92    42.91     9.40   -29.96     0.01     0.01     0.28     0.06P   58.33R    5.56  
AFC_Wimbledon        10    3   -9      -7.37     2.40    -3.75    39.98     8.86   -23.90     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   69.51R    7.89  
Bolton                8   -9  -22      -3.55    15.46   -14.77    23.83     9.23   -49.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.85R   79.12  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2019, Bradford 3 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter           10   22   +8       5.29    88.60     3.63    79.26     9.63    19.70    22.72    50.87    79.80    58.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe            10   21   +5       6.48    92.67     3.75    72.47     9.89     8.09     7.85    24.84    54.73    30.98P    0.14R    0.04  
Cheltenham       10   20  +10       5.10    87.14     8.27    71.07     9.78    12.63     6.12    21.11    50.36    27.26P    0.19R    0.04  
Swindon          10   20   +7       4.14    82.46     3.76    75.33     9.86    16.01    13.10    35.52    66.53    43.25P    0.05R    0.02  
Forest_Green     10   18   +2       3.85    80.90     1.17    70.64     9.66     7.23     4.92    18.69    47.68    25.64P    0.23R    0.05  
Bradford         10   17   +5       0.55    54.32     0.96    77.90    10.10    22.22    20.37    46.24    75.68    55.29P    0.02R    0.01  
Newport_County   10   17   +3       3.53    79.31     3.07    67.48     9.66     5.26     2.82    11.63    35.27    16.85P    0.53R    0.12  
Crawley_Town     10   16   +3       2.85    74.32     3.88    61.26     9.56    -2.91     0.67     3.63    15.92     5.93P    2.51R    0.79  
Grimsby          10   15   +4       1.84    66.89     4.59    60.68     9.48    -0.71     0.56     3.20    14.35     5.40P    2.55R    0.69  
Colchester       10   15   +3      -0.07    49.64     0.94    70.43     9.64    12.15     5.14    18.96    47.72    26.56P    0.18R    0.06  
Cambridge_Utd    10   14   +3       2.21    70.28     5.51    60.66     9.43    -0.17     0.55     3.13    14.10     5.26P    2.77R    0.85  
Northampton      10   14   +2      -0.15    49.17     1.30    66.95     9.83     7.51     2.72    11.30    34.48    17.07P    0.72R    0.22  
Port_Vale        10   13   -3       1.42    63.94    -0.30    56.24     9.27   -11.00     0.13     1.00     5.93     1.95P    7.16R    2.56  
Plymouth         10   12   +1      -3.97    19.57    -2.46    70.00    10.36    14.01     6.08    19.89    47.35    28.26P    0.49R    0.15  
Macclesfield     10   12   -1       1.03    61.06     2.91    49.48     9.06   -17.98     0.02     0.16     1.39     0.34P   21.27R    9.44  
Walsall          10   12   -4      -2.17    31.91    -4.85    66.11     9.95     3.42     2.32     9.73    30.87    15.68P    0.87R    0.27  
Salford_City     10   11   -4       0.57    57.02     1.29    44.74     9.29   -28.44     0.01     0.05     0.52     0.12P   42.04R   23.29  
Carlisle         10   11   -6      -2.02    33.00    -4.90    60.19     9.93    -6.36     0.60     3.24    14.01     5.73P    3.75R    1.30  
Mansfield        10   10   -3      -6.17     7.92    -6.64    65.04     9.71     5.49     1.64     8.03    27.47    13.91P    1.07R    0.27  
Oldham           10   10   -3      -3.95    18.81    -3.39    63.69     9.88     3.56     1.30     6.44    23.54    10.86P    1.67R    0.51  
Leyton_Orient    10    9   -6      -1.58    37.11    -1.24    46.10     9.57   -24.63     0.01     0.10     0.82     0.24P   35.97R   19.45  
Morecambe        10    6  -10      -4.52    13.74    -5.17    43.96     9.16   -27.01     0.00     0.02     0.34     0.07P   44.62R   25.69  
Scunthorpe       10    5   -8      -9.71     1.19    -9.51    57.01    10.32    -4.11     0.33     2.08     9.74     4.24P    7.79R    3.12  
Stevenage        10    4   -8      -8.63     1.48    -6.58    48.88     9.40   -13.97     0.01     0.13     1.41     0.40P   23.42R   11.05  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 September 2019, AFC_Fylde 3 2 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Bromley            13   29   +9       8.40    94.59     4.85    78.08     9.36    14.63    15.80    64.43    26.04P    0.14R    0.00  
Halifax            13   25   +9       7.05    91.55     8.68    73.81     9.09    14.41     7.00    47.17    15.54P    0.50R    0.02  
Woking             13   25   +9       6.68    89.08     8.30    70.05     9.90     8.82     4.49    32.84    10.54P    2.03R    0.05  
Yeovil             13   25   +8       2.14    65.25     0.51    84.96     9.41    30.17    44.08    86.82    58.31P    0.02R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     13   23   +4       3.60    75.44     1.59    69.72     9.24     6.07     3.56    30.19     9.47P    1.65R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red          13   22   +3       3.67    76.01     2.21    69.38     9.18     6.19     2.81    28.53     8.15P    1.82R    0.06  
Barrow             13   19   +4       0.45    53.68     2.92    64.73     9.20     4.60     1.10    15.52     4.31P    5.12R    0.24  
Barnet             12   19   +0       1.88    65.18    -1.09    68.67     9.36     4.66     2.43    26.70     7.99P    2.43R    0.10  
Maidenhead         13   18   +5       1.28    60.64     6.67    58.40     9.09    -2.44     0.17     4.74     1.01P   17.19R    1.35  
Solihull_Moors     12   17   +4      -2.07    33.64     0.00    69.80     9.57    13.19     3.63    32.37    11.42P    1.86R    0.05  
Notts_County       13   17   +3      -5.10    16.63    -3.56    74.71     9.60    21.95     9.63    53.17    24.65P    0.62R    0.02  
Stockport          13   17   -5       3.16    73.86     1.41    52.56     9.51   -20.04     0.07     1.64     0.31P   41.31R    6.03  
Torquay            13   16   -2       1.11    59.49     2.85    53.05     9.74   -15.59     0.09     1.87     0.45P   38.86R    6.19  
Harrogate_Town     13   16   -2      -2.65    31.07    -3.22    62.84     9.34     0.09     0.76    11.22     3.07P    8.58R    0.52  
AFC_Fylde          12   16   -3      -3.17    26.41    -7.16    68.77     9.66     6.26     2.97    28.25     9.81P    2.71R    0.10  
Eastleigh          13   16   -3      -0.25    49.03    -0.39    60.37     9.18    -4.51     0.31     6.67     1.51P   13.11R    0.93  
Hartlepool         13   16   -4      -0.80    44.69    -2.42    56.98     9.07   -10.80     0.12     3.22     0.74P   22.31R    2.01  
Boreham_Wood       13   15   +4      -3.36    26.20     3.23    59.52     9.13     2.95     0.24     6.21     1.60P   13.84R    1.00  
Sutton_United      13   15   +0      -2.64    30.98     0.24    59.22     9.16    -1.64     0.27     5.78     1.55P   15.03R    1.10  
Aldershot          13   14   -6      -0.51    47.47    -1.26    52.05     8.75   -16.40     0.01     0.86     0.16P   41.72R    5.68  
Wrexham            12   11   -4      -6.36     9.52    -5.38    60.36     9.43     0.29     0.40     7.65     2.33P   12.95R    1.13  
Ebbsfleet_United   13   10   -9      -6.48    10.07    -6.82    56.03     9.29    -8.02     0.06     2.91     0.74P   25.90R    2.91  
Chesterfield       13    9   -9      -8.55     4.47    -8.55    52.54     9.23   -11.88     0.02     1.25     0.29P   38.79R    5.76  
Chorley            13    9  -15      -2.09    35.21    -3.63    37.27     8.87   -42.95     0.00     0.01     0.00P   91.51R   64.71