Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 25 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2019, Arsenal 3 2 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         6   18  +12       4.40    94.19     2.27    88.88     7.87    59.86    44.24    91.25    97.88    99.39    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          6   13  +18      -2.12    19.82     3.91    89.75     7.11    81.53    54.08    94.32    98.79    99.69    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         6   11   +3       2.90    81.50     3.25    57.15     8.89     5.05     0.03     0.41     4.80    13.11    39.24     0.75R    0.09  
Arsenal           6   11   +1       1.03    62.51    -1.69    65.55     9.09    17.88     0.42     3.23    23.35    45.04    75.34     0.06R    0.00  
West_Ham          6   11   +1       3.02    82.28     1.69    51.60     8.79    -6.40     0.00     0.06     1.40     4.65    18.17     3.12R    0.37  
Bournemouth       6   10   +1       2.66    79.51     3.12    48.99     8.95   -10.79     0.00     0.03     0.90     3.00    12.14     6.34R    1.17  
Tottenham         6    8   +4      -2.49    21.25     0.51    69.53     8.73    32.54     0.89     7.26    42.17    65.25    88.09     0.01R    0.01  
Man_Utd           6    8   +2      -2.40    24.46    -1.23    61.70     8.79    16.81     0.12     1.38    12.00    27.83    61.88     0.19R    0.02  
Burnley           6    8   +1       0.97    63.49     3.12    44.38     8.52   -12.58     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.72     4.65    13.71R    2.88  
Sheff_Utd         6    8   +1       1.21    65.94     3.38    42.30     8.83   -16.52     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.54     3.22    21.37R    5.80  
Chelsea           6    8   -1      -1.91    28.44    -3.64    63.58     8.86    17.13     0.20     1.98    17.25    36.03    69.16     0.08R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace    6    8   -3       0.42    56.23    -1.83    46.99     8.64   -12.34     0.00     0.02     0.37     1.43     7.61     8.74R    1.66  
Southampton       6    7   -3       0.41    56.69    -0.37    42.10     8.42   -19.63     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.36     2.56    21.00R    5.16  
Everton           6    7   -4      -2.28    25.50    -5.58    46.72     8.70   -12.28     0.00     0.02     0.42     1.41     7.60     9.15R    1.71  
Brighton          6    6   -3      -0.40    45.97     0.62    37.25     8.13   -23.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.63    40.71R   13.17  
Norwich           6    6   -5       1.32    68.33     2.97    39.84     9.13   -26.35     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.38     2.18    32.27R   11.00  
Newcastle         6    5   -4      -2.02    26.46    -1.68    43.64     8.52   -12.36     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.55     3.83    15.57R    3.31  
Aston_Villa       6    4   -3      -1.77    30.34     1.58    35.82     8.73   -25.96     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.68    47.88R   19.87  
Wolverhampton     6    4   -4      -2.95    18.83    -2.12    42.62     8.55   -14.46     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.45     2.83    19.14R    4.79  
Watford           6    2  -14      -3.71    10.53    -8.26    33.58     8.41   -37.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.28    59.90R   28.99  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2019, West_Brom 4 2 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     8   17   +9       3.90    83.64     5.92    80.61    10.19    26.11    23.50    40.33    77.56    51.10P    0.03R    0.01  
Swansea          8   17   +7       4.80    88.75     5.13    77.58    10.29    19.59    14.68    28.74    67.10    38.76P    0.13R    0.01  
Preston          8   16   +7       3.82    83.12     5.21    73.28    10.45    14.71     7.95    17.14    50.87    25.42P    0.50R    0.04  
West_Brom        8   16   +5       1.91    68.14     0.16    80.70    10.51    24.29    24.66    41.28    76.79    51.93P    0.07R    0.01  
QPR              8   16   +2       5.57    91.93     2.89    61.45    10.21    -8.73     0.69     1.91    13.08     3.81P    6.53R    1.01  
Nott'm_Forest    8   15   +5       4.13    85.71     5.08    70.77    10.20    10.68     4.39    10.81    41.08    17.46P    0.75R    0.07  
Bristol_City     8   15   +4       3.52    80.92     3.18    71.79    10.31    10.92     5.71    13.16    45.04    20.66P    0.68R    0.05  
Charlton         8   14   +3       3.25    79.37     3.19    61.39    10.53    -3.58     0.97     2.47    13.80     4.75P    6.78R    1.16  
Sheff_Wed        8   13   +4       0.76    57.65     2.11    65.32    10.14     4.54     1.60     4.26    22.93     8.42P    2.50R    0.32  
Blackburn        8   13   +1       2.43    73.55     1.71    64.49    10.24     0.15     1.34     3.74    20.23     7.30P    3.51R    0.55  
Birmingham       8   13   -2       3.12    79.12    -0.54    60.61     9.96    -8.11     0.49     1.52    10.54     3.22P    7.22R    1.22  
Fulham           8   12   +5      -0.58    44.45     2.64    70.95    10.90    15.25     6.07    13.29    43.19    21.62P    1.14R    0.12  
Cardiff          8   12   -1       0.02    50.62    -2.57    66.90    10.79     3.26     2.85     6.78    28.66    12.34P    2.59R    0.31  
Hull             8    9   +0      -2.21    29.67    -0.28    60.10    10.47    -1.99     0.60     1.70    11.59     3.94P    8.61R    1.65  
Middlesbrough    8    9   -1      -3.14    21.14    -2.78    64.80     9.77     4.94     1.18     3.42    20.21     8.11P    2.67R    0.37  
Millwall         8    9   -5       0.16    53.45    -2.00    53.75     9.68   -14.85     0.08     0.24     2.76     0.64P   21.41R    5.11  
Brentford        8    8   -1      -3.36    19.67    -1.66    63.95    10.32     4.76     1.26     3.54    19.35     7.62P    4.07R    0.66  
Derby            8    8   -3      -3.32    20.43    -3.54    65.81    10.21     5.51     1.67     4.65    24.28     9.84P    2.68R    0.36  
Wigan            8    8   -5      -1.62    34.82    -3.12    54.39     9.82   -13.10     0.13     0.34     3.40     0.94P   19.52R    4.41  
Reading          8    7   -2      -2.15    29.52     0.71    50.72     9.85   -14.30     0.03     0.16     1.63     0.42P   31.36R    8.81  
Luton            8    7   -4      -2.79    25.00    -2.01    52.49    10.91   -15.25     0.13     0.41     3.68     1.14P   27.77R    8.18  
Barnsley         8    5   -8      -4.24    13.61    -5.63    48.72    10.12   -20.00     0.01     0.06     1.13     0.28P   39.79R   13.98  
Stoke            8    2  -10      -7.32     1.76    -7.77    48.08     9.80   -18.24     0.02     0.06     0.84     0.22P   41.40R   14.24  
Huddersfield     8    1  -10      -7.34     1.13    -6.04    41.43     9.98   -26.56     0.00     0.01     0.25     0.06P   68.29R   37.34  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 1 3 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich               9   21  +12       5.51    90.96     7.34    84.01     9.77    35.06    40.78    61.02    90.55    69.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry              9   19   +6       5.40    90.24     4.16    68.56     9.52     8.37     3.08     8.47    39.54    14.63P    0.60R    0.00  
Wycombe              10   19   +5       4.26    83.13     3.49    61.27     9.25    -2.31     0.57     1.82    15.05     4.08P    3.40R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town        9   17   +4       2.64    73.64     1.01    68.39     9.62     9.06     3.09     8.30    39.15    14.94P    0.70R    0.00  
Sunderland            9   16   +3       0.07    49.91    -2.62    79.63     9.55    27.93    21.79    42.20    81.71    54.82P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool            10   16   +2       1.92    66.90     1.41    64.57     9.27     4.98     1.19     3.56    24.46     7.79P    1.52R    0.01  
Doncaster             8   15   +4       2.00    69.05     0.94    72.16     9.90    15.92     6.50    16.20    54.69    25.71P    0.29R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       10   15   +1       0.68    56.56     0.03    60.42     9.28    -1.03     0.40     1.52    13.28     3.86P    4.17R    0.03  
Peterborough          9   14  +10      -0.77    43.09     6.15    74.13     9.71    29.62     9.63    22.34    64.52    34.37P    0.14R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         10   13   -1       0.33    53.66     0.78    54.13     9.58   -10.18     0.11     0.40     4.79     1.21P   15.24R    0.43  
Shrewsbury            9   13   -1       0.71    57.32    -1.00    60.82     9.45    -1.16     0.39     1.55    14.39     4.15P    4.06R    0.04  
Oxford_Utd           10   12   +4      -2.01    33.11     3.70    62.47     9.56     9.57     0.84     2.63    19.60     6.46P    3.02R    0.02  
Rotherham             8   12   +4      -1.18    37.88     0.53    69.45    10.63    16.45     5.29    12.46    45.16    21.40P    1.04R    0.00  
Burton_Albion         9   12   +2      -0.96    41.83     1.12    67.46     9.71    13.37     2.51     7.22    36.71    14.75P    1.04R    0.00  
MK_Dons               9   12   -2       0.25    53.37    -1.07    52.72     9.82   -14.34     0.07     0.28     3.86     0.90P   20.17R    0.62  
Gillingham            9   10   +4      -2.65    26.62     3.54    58.31     9.75     3.78     0.32     1.10    10.66     3.12P    7.53R    0.12  
Rochdale              9   10   -4       0.18    53.41     0.41    50.89     9.47   -16.50     0.02     0.13     2.06     0.42P   25.10R    0.92  
Tranmere              9    9   -2      -0.55    45.82     2.98    45.77     9.68   -21.00     0.01     0.05     0.86     0.18P   45.84R    2.82  
Accrington_Stanley    9    7   -6      -3.19    22.26    -2.58    46.83     9.33   -20.14     0.01     0.03     0.81     0.17P   40.24R    2.20  
Portsmouth            7    6   -1      -4.83     8.98    -2.92    67.44    10.34    15.76     3.40     8.71    37.80    17.09P    1.46R    0.02  
Southend              9    4  -13      -5.97     6.41    -8.95    43.08     9.37   -29.77     0.00     0.02     0.27     0.05P   57.49R    5.44  
AFC_Wimbledon        10    3   -9      -7.36     2.50    -3.73    40.08     8.83   -23.76     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   68.97R    7.48  
Bolton                8   -9  -22      -3.54    15.53   -14.74    23.72     9.20   -49.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.95R   79.82  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2019, Bradford 3 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter           10   22   +8       5.30    88.46     3.65    79.24     9.67    19.75    22.54    50.87    79.59    58.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe            10   21   +5       6.44    92.61     3.67    72.56     9.81     8.29     7.76    24.72    55.20    31.24P    0.13R    0.03  
Cheltenham       10   20  +10       5.11    87.18     8.28    71.15     9.83    12.74     6.32    21.43    50.66    27.76P    0.14R    0.02  
Swindon          10   20   +7       4.14    82.47     3.79    75.29     9.76    15.93    12.34    35.09    66.79    43.06P    0.05R    0.01  
Forest_Green     10   18   +2       3.74    80.28     1.02    70.83     9.62     7.54     5.44    19.09    48.71    26.08P    0.18R    0.04  
Bradford         10   17   +5       0.43    53.35     0.83    78.16    10.18    22.59    21.14    47.54    76.35    56.49P    0.04R    0.01  
Newport_County   10   17   +3       3.62    79.70     3.19    67.54     9.58     5.33     2.71    11.49    35.32    16.71P    0.54R    0.10  
Crawley_Town     10   16   +3       2.92    74.64     3.98    61.12     9.55    -3.19     0.62     3.59    15.39     5.81P    2.57R    0.78  
Grimsby          10   15   +4       1.94    67.78     4.73    60.59     9.52    -0.95     0.51     3.12    14.26     5.32P    2.67R    0.82  
Colchester       10   15   +3      -0.01    50.28     1.02    70.34     9.65    12.00     4.99    18.57    47.79    26.50P    0.23R    0.05  
Cambridge_Utd    10   14   +3       2.25    70.80     5.56    60.51     9.39    -0.40     0.48     2.89    13.72     4.99P    2.87R    0.90  
Northampton      10   14   +2      -0.21    48.73     1.21    67.30     9.81     8.00     2.91    11.88    35.50    17.69P    0.71R    0.22  
Port_Vale        10   13   -3       1.40    64.19    -0.34    56.36     9.26   -10.87     0.14     1.06     6.11     1.92P    6.74R    2.41  
Plymouth         10   12   +1      -4.05    19.05    -2.54    69.99    10.40    14.01     6.13    19.74    46.93    28.16P    0.51R    0.15  
Macclesfield     10   12   -1       0.95    60.37     2.80    49.69     8.99   -17.60     0.02     0.18     1.40     0.35P   20.56R    8.93  
Walsall          10   12   -4      -2.21    31.46    -4.88    66.20     9.90     3.54     2.27     9.76    31.17    15.75P    0.95R    0.28  
Salford_City     10   11   -4       0.58    57.32     1.33    44.63     9.26   -28.68     0.00     0.05     0.52     0.12P   42.67R   23.58  
Carlisle         10   11   -6      -1.99    33.53    -4.86    60.15     9.84    -6.35     0.54     3.00    13.67     5.40P    3.67R    1.30  
Mansfield        10   10   -3      -6.09     8.15    -6.54    64.67     9.69     5.07     1.65     7.63    26.19    13.12P    1.00R    0.27  
Oldham           10   10   -3      -3.87    19.23    -3.25    63.41     9.76     3.16     1.09     5.94    22.48    10.04P    1.74R    0.51  
Leyton_Orient    10    9   -6      -1.54    37.70    -1.23    46.00     9.56   -24.72     0.00     0.09     0.81     0.19P   36.15R   19.51  
Morecambe        10    6  -10      -4.50    13.69    -5.15    43.76     9.15   -27.31     0.00     0.03     0.34     0.08P   45.48R   26.33  
Scunthorpe       10    5   -8      -9.73     1.20    -9.55    56.91    10.34    -4.24     0.36     2.05     9.63     4.23P    7.74R    3.16  
Stevenage        10    4   -8      -8.73     1.54    -6.71    49.13     9.45   -13.63     0.02     0.18     1.49     0.49P   22.66R   10.58  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 September 2019, AFC_Fylde 3 2 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Bromley            13   29   +9       8.48    94.72     4.93    77.92     9.39    14.36    15.52    63.71    25.71P    0.14R    0.00  
Halifax            13   25   +9       7.02    91.39     8.63    73.94     9.14    14.62     7.23    48.16    16.01P    0.50R    0.01  
Woking             13   25   +9       6.63    88.90     8.22    70.22     9.88     9.01     4.84    33.19    10.69P    1.94R    0.05  
Yeovil             13   25   +8       2.16    65.55     0.52    84.93     9.37    30.10    43.70    86.67    58.07P    0.02R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     13   23   +4       3.61    75.31     1.59    69.89     9.25     6.28     3.49    30.89     9.41P    1.62R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red          13   22   +3       3.70    76.05     2.29    69.23     9.19     5.96     2.77    27.96     8.09P    1.92R    0.09  
Barrow             13   19   +4       0.47    53.98     2.93    64.69     9.23     4.55     1.00    15.58     4.10P    5.40R    0.24  
Barnet             12   19   +0       1.81    64.62    -1.18    68.73     9.42     4.75     2.75    26.99     8.45P    2.34R    0.09  
Maidenhead         13   18   +5       1.32    60.87     6.72    58.30     9.01    -2.53     0.16     4.51     0.91P   17.16R    1.28  
Solihull_Moors     12   17   +4      -2.10    33.43    -0.03    69.80     9.55    13.27     3.64    32.29    11.31P    1.85R    0.04  
Notts_County       13   17   +3      -5.19    16.33    -3.72    74.88     9.62    22.23     9.88    54.05    25.47P    0.69R    0.02  
Stockport          13   17   -5       3.17    73.94     1.42    52.46     9.50   -20.25     0.05     1.57     0.29P   41.82R    6.19  
Torquay            13   16   -2       1.10    59.29     2.83    53.07     9.75   -15.57     0.08     2.10     0.44P   38.92R    6.26  
Harrogate_Town     13   16   -2      -2.66    30.87    -3.23    62.91     9.23     0.23     0.62    10.97     2.91P    8.25R    0.43  
AFC_Fylde          12   16   -3      -3.14    26.53    -7.08    68.63     9.64     5.99     2.81    27.71     9.57P    2.73R    0.12  
Eastleigh          13   16   -3      -0.22    49.43    -0.38    60.20     9.20    -4.76     0.28     6.53     1.52P   13.46R    1.06  
Hartlepool         13   16   -4      -0.82    44.52    -2.43    56.97     9.05   -10.87     0.16     3.30     0.75P   22.37R    1.92  
Boreham_Wood       13   15   +4      -3.29    26.76     3.33    59.48     9.16     2.91     0.27     6.12     1.52P   14.01R    1.02  
Sutton_United      13   15   +0      -2.64    30.88     0.27    59.22     9.19    -1.60     0.25     5.66     1.45P   15.17R    1.05  
Aldershot          13   14   -6      -0.43    48.09    -1.17    51.92     8.74   -16.58     0.02     0.78     0.13P   41.84R    5.81  
Wrexham            12   11   -4      -6.30     9.65    -5.30    60.31     9.30     0.21     0.35     7.13     2.08P   12.63R    1.05  
Ebbsfleet_United   13   10   -9      -6.50    10.22    -6.81    56.13     9.31    -7.88     0.10     2.85     0.78P   25.35R    3.02  
Chesterfield       13    9   -9      -8.62     4.55    -8.67    52.72     9.16   -11.54     0.04     1.27     0.33P   38.10R    5.55  
Chorley            13    9  -15      -2.12    34.90    -3.68    37.35     8.74   -42.86     0.00     0.01     0.00    91.77R   64.67