Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 24 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2019, Arsenal 3 2 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         6   18  +12       4.38    94.14     2.26    88.83     7.83    59.67    44.18    91.11    97.80    99.29    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          6   13  +18      -2.15    19.54     3.89    89.80     7.10    81.74    53.99    94.36    98.84    99.72    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         6   11   +3       2.84    80.76     3.16    57.43     8.97     5.51     0.03     0.45     5.10    13.70    40.43     0.77R    0.10  
Arsenal           6   11   +1       1.02    62.43    -1.71    65.61     9.09    18.04     0.40     3.38    23.07    44.88    74.92     0.07R    0.00  
West_Ham          6   11   +1       3.01    82.29     1.66    51.67     8.77    -6.34     0.00     0.07     1.43     4.56    18.01     3.07R    0.40  
Bournemouth       6   10   +1       2.67    79.42     3.14    49.07     8.99   -10.67     0.00     0.05     0.92     3.03    12.44     6.43R    1.18  
Tottenham         6    8   +4      -2.50    20.90     0.48    69.77     8.64    33.00     1.07     7.37    42.88    66.11    88.79     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           6    8   +2      -2.35    24.64    -1.16    61.53     8.78    16.53     0.11     1.26    11.73    27.27    61.00     0.18R    0.02  
Burnley           6    8   +1       0.97    63.44     3.12    44.35     8.46   -12.67     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.73     4.49    13.53R    2.72  
Sheff_Utd         6    8   +1       1.19    65.57     3.35    42.40     8.87   -16.38     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.64     3.40    21.01R    5.71  
Chelsea           6    8   -1      -1.90    28.70    -3.64    63.48     8.88    16.95     0.21     1.88    16.74    35.34    68.76     0.13R    0.02  
Crystal_Palace    6    8   -3       0.47    56.93    -1.77    46.68     8.58   -12.78     0.00     0.01     0.33     1.28     7.05     9.16R    1.68  
Southampton       6    7   -3       0.39    56.46    -0.39    42.17     8.54   -19.57     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.42     2.65    21.17R    5.19  
Everton           6    7   -4      -2.28    25.31    -5.57    46.66     8.66   -12.37     0.00     0.01     0.39     1.50     7.57     9.14R    1.63  
Brighton          6    6   -3      -0.41    46.01     0.59    37.39     8.07   -23.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.67    39.50R   12.67  
Norwich           6    6   -5       1.34    68.36     3.01    39.69     9.26   -26.63     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.35     2.23    33.10R   11.66  
Newcastle         6    5   -4      -1.98    26.93    -1.64    43.60     8.53   -12.42     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.58     3.89    15.41R    3.39  
Aston_Villa       6    4   -3      -1.74    30.69     1.66    35.59     8.67   -26.33     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.62    49.02R   20.64  
Wolverhampton     6    4   -4      -2.96    18.66    -2.12    42.62     8.60   -14.49     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.44     2.93    19.19R    4.90  
Watford           6    2  -14      -3.73    10.50    -8.32    33.71     8.35   -37.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.24    59.11R   28.10  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2019, West_Brom 4 2 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     8   17   +9       3.91    84.05     5.91    80.65    10.21    26.17    23.29    40.55    77.50    51.18P    0.05R    0.00  
Swansea          8   17   +7       4.81    88.91     5.16    77.62    10.16    19.63    14.67    28.60    67.56    38.91P    0.11R    0.02  
Preston          8   16   +7       3.81    82.78     5.19    73.41    10.47    14.96     8.22    17.35    51.55    25.57P    0.49R    0.04  
West_Brom        8   16   +5       1.88    67.76     0.10    80.82    10.44    24.52    24.58    41.34    77.18    52.08P    0.06R    0.00  
QPR              8   16   +2       5.58    91.97     2.88    61.33    10.13    -8.97     0.72     1.95    12.67     3.82P    6.42R    0.91  
Nott'm_Forest    8   15   +5       4.03    85.10     4.98    71.03    10.08    11.04     4.49    10.85    41.72    17.93P    0.72R    0.06  
Bristol_City     8   15   +4       3.51    81.00     3.19    71.82    10.26    11.00     5.76    13.14    44.84    20.45P    0.63R    0.06  
Charlton         8   14   +3       3.29    79.76     3.24    61.14    10.46    -3.89     0.76     2.20    13.08     4.30P    7.10R    1.28  
Sheff_Wed        8   13   +4       0.86    58.60     2.22    65.33    10.10     4.45     1.63     4.29    22.54     8.41P    2.63R    0.33  
Blackburn        8   13   +1       2.47    73.84     1.77    64.31    10.27    -0.14     1.24     3.48    19.62     6.78P    3.93R    0.64  
Birmingham       8   13   -2       3.16    79.58    -0.47    60.41     9.95    -8.47     0.44     1.25    10.33     2.96P    7.57R    1.25  
Fulham           8   12   +5      -0.62    44.09     2.58    71.05    10.93    15.34     6.19    13.62    43.57    21.98P    1.11R    0.15  
Cardiff          8   12   -1       0.06    50.89    -2.50    66.58    10.80     2.85     2.64     6.44    27.22    11.94P    2.90R    0.34  
Hull             8    9   +0      -2.20    29.45    -0.26    60.10    10.44    -2.01     0.63     1.74    11.46     3.84P    8.45R    1.63  
Middlesbrough    8    9   -1      -3.17    20.73    -2.82    64.80     9.91     4.94     1.29     3.56    20.61     8.28P    2.80R    0.38  
Millwall         8    9   -5       0.10    52.57    -2.06    53.80     9.62   -14.76     0.06     0.21     2.67     0.65P   20.93R    4.98  
Brentford        8    8   -1      -3.42    19.20    -1.73    64.12    10.25     5.07     1.21     3.52    19.87     7.66P    3.84R    0.59  
Derby            8    8   -3      -3.35    20.30    -3.57    66.00    10.31     5.77     1.84     4.85    25.05    10.28P    2.64R    0.36  
Wigan            8    8   -5      -1.62    35.21    -3.11    54.44     9.99   -12.98     0.11     0.39     3.65     1.08P   19.54R    4.56  
Reading          8    7   -2      -2.18    29.35     0.67    50.79     9.85   -14.24     0.03     0.12     1.57     0.36P   30.99R    8.66  
Luton            8    7   -4      -2.81    24.79    -2.01    52.39    10.73   -15.44     0.15     0.38     3.36     0.95P   27.57R    8.04  
Barnsley         8    5   -8      -4.20    13.86    -5.58    48.65    10.33   -20.11     0.02     0.09     1.38     0.33P   40.36R   14.02  
Stoke            8    2  -10      -7.35     1.82    -7.82    48.21     9.79   -18.00     0.01     0.06     0.80     0.23P   40.78R   14.09  
Huddersfield     8    1  -10      -7.29     1.26    -5.98    41.28     9.93   -26.74     0.00     0.01     0.18     0.04P   68.37R   37.60  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 1 3 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich               9   21  +12       5.48    90.66     7.31    84.09     9.78    35.14    41.09    61.27    90.60    70.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry              9   19   +6       5.45    90.63     4.21    68.55     9.43     8.42     3.04     8.26    39.27    14.39P    0.57R    0.00  
Wycombe              10   19   +5       4.29    83.31     3.54    61.01     9.25    -2.64     0.50     1.68    14.41     3.77P    3.64R    0.03  
Fleetwood_Town        9   17   +4       2.60    73.08     0.92    68.61     9.70     9.40     3.30     8.94    40.20    16.02P    0.72R    0.00  
Sunderland            9   16   +3       0.10    50.45    -2.57    79.51     9.56    27.68    21.67    41.61    81.32    54.53P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool            10   16   +2       1.87    66.50     1.32    64.69     9.21     5.13     1.15     3.63    24.78     8.09P    1.45R    0.02  
Doncaster             8   15   +4       2.06    69.35     1.03    72.00     9.87    15.71     6.40    15.63    54.21    25.15P    0.34R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       10   15   +1       0.66    56.43    -0.01    60.45     9.29    -0.96     0.41     1.45    13.36     3.76P    4.23R    0.05  
Peterborough          9   14  +10      -0.81    42.48     6.08    74.27     9.74    29.82     9.82    22.89    65.13    34.77P    0.13R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         10   13   -1       0.34    53.75     0.80    54.04     9.60   -10.31     0.09     0.36     4.65     1.13P   15.80R    0.42  
Shrewsbury            9   13   -1       0.67    57.06    -1.06    60.92     9.39    -1.00     0.46     1.76    14.52     4.35P    3.78R    0.05  
Oxford_Utd           10   12   +4      -1.96    33.30     3.79    62.51     9.66     9.65     0.88     2.78    19.87     6.55P    3.21R    0.02  
Rotherham             8   12   +4      -1.17    37.97     0.53    69.52    10.77    16.60     5.28    12.80    45.85    21.57P    1.09R    0.01  
Burton_Albion         9   12   +2      -0.97    41.42     1.09    67.41     9.56    13.31     2.38     7.04    36.36    14.41P    0.95R    0.01  
MK_Dons               9   12   -2       0.30    53.60    -0.96    52.64     9.84   -14.49     0.08     0.30     3.77     0.94P   20.74R    0.62  
Gillingham            9   10   +4      -2.63    26.57     3.58    58.20     9.72     3.63     0.29     1.03    10.46     3.01P    7.64R    0.11  
Rochdale              9   10   -4       0.21    53.35     0.46    50.77     9.37   -16.75     0.02     0.10     1.96     0.38P   25.41R    0.84  
Tranmere              9    9   -2      -0.65    44.98     2.82    46.13     9.57   -20.43     0.01     0.04     0.90     0.16P   43.88R    2.50  
Accrington_Stanley    9    7   -6      -3.19    22.30    -2.58    46.93     9.40   -19.98     0.01     0.04     0.84     0.16P   40.24R    2.29  
Portsmouth            7    6   -1      -4.77     9.27    -2.84    67.25    10.33    15.46     3.15     8.38    37.11    16.74P    1.58R    0.02  
Southend              9    4  -13      -5.93     6.55    -8.90    42.94     9.39   -29.95     0.00     0.02     0.33     0.06P   58.16R    5.44  
AFC_Wimbledon        10    3   -9      -7.41     2.35    -3.82    40.14     8.80   -23.68     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   68.48R    7.62  
Bolton                8   -9  -22      -3.53    15.76   -14.73    23.68     9.25   -49.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.93R   79.95  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2019, Bradford 3 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter           10   22   +8       5.29    88.55     3.60    79.32     9.69    19.81    23.35    51.11    79.91    58.70P    0.03R    0.01  
Crewe            10   21   +5       6.50    92.59     3.79    72.37     9.84     7.99     7.50    24.50    54.45    30.82P    0.15R    0.04  
Cheltenham       10   20  +10       5.08    86.89     8.26    71.20     9.76    12.81     6.24    21.49    50.97    27.71P    0.12R    0.03  
Swindon          10   20   +7       4.10    81.96     3.72    75.45     9.83    16.19    13.09    35.82    67.16    43.58P    0.04R    0.00  
Forest_Green     10   18   +2       3.80    80.78     1.09    70.71     9.53     7.35     5.06    18.67    47.90    25.72P    0.18R    0.05  
Bradford         10   17   +5       0.52    54.19     0.94    77.94    10.13    22.27    20.38    46.83    75.87    55.58P    0.04R    0.01  
Newport_County   10   17   +3       3.59    79.50     3.17    67.52     9.49     5.24     2.52    11.35    35.39    16.84P    0.49R    0.14  
Crawley_Town     10   16   +3       2.94    74.62     4.02    61.05     9.48    -3.24     0.60     3.37    15.03     5.51P    2.41R    0.78  
Grimsby          10   15   +4       1.85    66.98     4.61    60.62     9.42    -0.81     0.54     3.25    14.25     5.49P    2.51R    0.81  
Colchester       10   15   +3      -0.01    50.24     1.04    70.26     9.70    11.93     5.19    18.66    47.16    26.27P    0.27R    0.06  
Cambridge_Utd    10   14   +3       2.22    70.58     5.52    60.61     9.41    -0.22     0.52     3.06    14.00     5.10P    2.75R    0.89  
Northampton      10   14   +2      -0.24    48.62     1.17    67.32     9.84     8.01     2.86    12.16    35.77    18.04P    0.66R    0.23  
Port_Vale        10   13   -3       1.42    64.03    -0.29    56.27     9.25   -10.93     0.13     0.95     6.05     1.87P    6.94R    2.58  
Plymouth         10   12   +1      -4.06    18.85    -2.59    69.97    10.22    13.98     5.87    19.45    47.07    27.85P    0.46R    0.15  
Macclesfield     10   12   -1       1.08    61.38     3.00    49.33     9.03   -18.22     0.02     0.15     1.25     0.35P   22.05R    9.57  
Walsall          10   12   -4      -2.24    31.26    -4.94    66.44     9.92     3.85     2.33    10.11    31.94    16.52P    0.89R    0.25  
Salford_City     10   11   -4       0.57    57.04     1.29    44.65     9.29   -28.62     0.01     0.04     0.50     0.09P   42.41R   23.45  
Carlisle         10   11   -6      -1.96    33.95    -4.80    60.11     9.84    -6.49     0.52     2.98    13.69     5.30P    3.72R    1.23  
Mansfield        10   10   -3      -6.12     8.04    -6.58    64.79     9.68     5.22     1.66     7.63    26.82    13.24P    1.08R    0.34  
Oldham           10   10   -3      -3.86    19.49    -3.25    63.53     9.80     3.35     1.24     6.14    22.86    10.55P    1.68R    0.52  
Leyton_Orient    10    9   -6      -1.59    37.06    -1.32    46.16     9.55   -24.52     0.00     0.08     0.70     0.19P   35.66R   19.19  
Morecambe        10    6  -10      -4.51    13.98    -5.14    43.85     9.20   -27.26     0.00     0.03     0.34     0.10P   45.28R   26.10  
Scunthorpe       10    5   -8      -9.74     1.26    -9.56    56.90    10.34    -4.23     0.34     2.00     9.51     4.12P    7.89R    3.15  
Stevenage        10    4   -8      -8.76     1.49    -6.77    49.22     9.48   -13.45     0.03     0.15     1.40     0.46P   22.30R   10.42  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 September 2019, AFC_Fylde 3 2 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Bromley            13   29   +9       8.47    94.74     4.93    77.93     9.38    14.38    15.20    63.56    25.09P    0.18R    0.00  
Halifax            13   25   +9       7.04    91.24     8.66    73.81     9.15    14.45     6.93    47.40    15.60P    0.49R    0.01  
Woking             13   25   +9       6.63    88.59     8.23    70.16     9.89     8.94     4.68    33.26    10.62P    2.00R    0.06  
Yeovil             13   25   +8       2.11    65.02     0.45    85.00     9.54    30.24    44.39    86.44    58.44P    0.02R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     13   23   +4       3.45    74.49     1.36    70.11     9.22     6.63     3.63    31.73     9.89P    1.48R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red          13   22   +3       3.69    75.99     2.23    69.34     9.18     6.11     2.90    28.60     8.28P    1.90R    0.06  
Barrow             13   19   +4       0.38    53.29     2.82    64.98     9.25     5.00     1.12    16.18     4.39P    5.04R    0.22  
Barnet             12   19   +0       1.93    65.55    -1.04    68.58     9.24     4.51     2.39    26.11     7.92P    2.36R    0.09  
Maidenhead         13   18   +5       1.28    60.52     6.68    58.38     9.11    -2.50     0.16     4.82     1.03P   17.30R    1.21  
Solihull_Moors     12   17   +4      -2.05    33.96     0.05    69.67     9.58    13.06     3.60    32.01    11.32P    2.13R    0.05  
Notts_County       13   17   +3      -5.09    16.66    -3.57    74.71     9.68    21.96     9.73    53.24    24.90P    0.65R    0.02  
Stockport          13   17   -5       3.12    73.50     1.29    52.73     9.55   -19.78     0.06     1.67     0.29P   40.38R    5.75  
Torquay            13   16   -2       1.14    59.89     2.90    52.94     9.66   -15.71     0.07     1.78     0.39P   38.91R    6.32  
Harrogate_Town     13   16   -2      -2.74    30.41    -3.32    63.02     9.42     0.40     0.75    11.80     3.49P    8.42R    0.50  
AFC_Fylde          12   16   -3      -3.16    26.36    -7.14    68.64     9.68     6.03     2.88    27.79     9.56P    2.81R    0.12  
Eastleigh          13   16   -3      -0.21    49.39    -0.40    60.29     9.24    -4.65     0.32     6.78     1.68P   13.44R    1.02  
Hartlepool         13   16   -4      -0.76    44.98    -2.33    56.79     9.07   -11.10     0.10     3.04     0.71P   23.03R    2.03  
Boreham_Wood       13   15   +4      -3.34    26.45     3.25    59.46     9.08     2.84     0.28     5.83     1.53P   13.65R    1.05  
Sutton_United      13   15   +0      -2.60    31.20     0.34    59.14     9.19    -1.75     0.26     5.83     1.44P   15.40R    1.04  
Aldershot          13   14   -6      -0.40    48.22    -1.13    51.91     8.75   -16.57     0.01     0.78     0.15P   42.19R    6.09  
Wrexham            12   11   -4      -6.30     9.80    -5.30    60.28     9.43     0.09     0.41     7.43     2.28P   12.80R    1.07  
Ebbsfleet_United   13   10   -9      -6.44    10.36    -6.69    55.90     9.28    -8.24     0.09     2.64     0.67P   26.11R    2.94  
Chesterfield       13    9   -9      -8.62     4.33    -8.67    52.72     9.23   -11.54     0.03     1.23     0.35P   37.57R    5.65  
Chorley            13    9  -15      -2.09    35.16    -3.61    37.34     8.73   -42.79     0.00     0.02     0.00P   91.74R   64.67