Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 23 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2019, Arsenal 3 2 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         6   18  +12       4.37    94.06     2.25    88.87     7.82    59.91    44.86    91.25    97.91    99.43    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          6   13  +18      -2.09    20.18     4.03    89.60     7.10    81.14    53.42    94.07    98.69    99.66    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         6   11   +3       2.92    81.53     3.27    57.27     8.93     5.25     0.04     0.48     4.82    13.46    39.52     0.76R    0.08  
Arsenal           6   11   +1       1.04    62.45    -1.67    65.42     9.10    17.65     0.33     3.13    22.77    44.24    74.40     0.08R    0.00  
West_Ham          6   11   +1       3.00    82.55     1.65    51.59     8.81    -6.35     0.00     0.08     1.48     4.61    17.93     3.24R    0.43  
Bournemouth       6   10   +1       2.65    79.50     3.08    49.20     8.87   -10.38     0.00     0.03     0.87     2.84    12.37     5.80R    0.98  
Tottenham         6    8   +4      -2.52    20.66     0.44    69.70     8.70    32.83     1.02     7.38    42.57    65.75    88.50     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           6    8   +2      -2.39    24.39    -1.21    61.75     8.77    16.89     0.12     1.32    12.01    27.77    62.08     0.16R    0.02  
Burnley           6    8   +1       1.00    63.72     3.16    44.34     8.58   -12.65     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.78     4.74    14.04R    2.99  
Sheff_Utd         6    8   +1       1.25    66.51     3.41    42.33     8.86   -16.40     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.52     3.28    21.08R    5.61  
Chelsea           6    8   -1      -1.93    28.25    -3.69    63.69     8.93    17.35     0.21     2.20    17.39    35.99    69.46     0.13R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace    6    8   -3       0.44    57.07    -1.78    46.74     8.65   -12.72     0.00     0.02     0.34     1.37     7.18     9.17R    1.70  
Southampton       6    7   -3       0.38    56.37    -0.40    42.19     8.48   -19.43     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.41     2.64    20.84R    5.14  
Everton           6    7   -4      -2.33    25.09    -5.62    46.82     8.69   -12.20     0.00     0.03     0.45     1.69     7.68     9.00R    1.54  
Brighton          6    6   -3      -0.43    45.46     0.54    37.41     8.09   -23.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.66    39.72R   12.66  
Norwich           6    6   -5       1.33    68.44     2.97    39.65     9.19   -26.68     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.33     2.13    33.14R   11.41  
Newcastle         6    5   -4      -1.98    26.92    -1.67    43.60     8.45   -12.46     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.53     3.65    15.26R    3.19  
Aston_Villa       6    4   -3      -1.75    30.62     1.67    35.56     8.71   -26.49     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.64    49.12R   20.61  
Wolverhampton     6    4   -4      -2.98    18.57    -2.17    42.76     8.57   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.45     2.95    18.90R    4.66  
Watford           6    2  -14      -3.69    10.57    -8.27    33.59     8.41   -37.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.28    59.53R   28.96  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 September 2019, West_Brom 4 2 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     8   17   +9       3.88    83.74     5.88    80.71    10.18    26.28    23.71    41.00    77.75    51.57P    0.05R    0.01  
Swansea          8   17   +7       4.85    89.27     5.26    77.31    10.17    19.17    14.17    27.73    66.46    37.79P    0.13R    0.01  
Preston          8   16   +7       3.81    83.11     5.20    73.20    10.38    14.65     7.66    16.57    50.74    24.72P    0.54R    0.07  
West_Brom        8   16   +5       1.88    67.51     0.12    80.79    10.43    24.34    24.58    41.31    77.05    51.70P    0.05R    0.00  
QPR              8   16   +2       5.62    91.93     2.93    61.22    10.08    -9.13     0.65     1.83    12.29     3.59P    6.67R    1.03  
Nott'm_Forest    8   15   +5       4.07    85.04     5.02    70.92    10.25    10.87     4.61    11.07    41.81    18.11P    0.89R    0.07  
Bristol_City     8   15   +4       3.52    81.11     3.20    71.65    10.33    10.74     5.68    13.07    44.53    20.67P    0.68R    0.08  
Charlton         8   14   +3       3.25    79.60     3.19    61.35    10.46    -3.59     0.89     2.41    13.66     4.60P    6.88R    1.17  
Sheff_Wed        8   13   +4       0.85    58.83     2.23    65.21    10.14     4.38     1.62     4.26    22.42     8.35P    2.62R    0.36  
Blackburn        8   13   +1       2.45    73.59     1.76    64.45    10.20     0.14     1.35     3.71    19.89     6.97P    3.40R    0.47  
Birmingham       8   13   -2       3.08    79.02    -0.61    60.79     9.96    -7.83     0.48     1.38    10.99     3.15P    7.00R    1.07  
Fulham           8   12   +5      -0.65    43.73     2.54    71.18    11.12    15.67     6.67    14.40    44.41    22.89P    1.15R    0.16  
Cardiff          8   12   -1       0.03    50.76    -2.55    66.75    10.65     3.16     2.69     6.42    27.57    11.89P    2.61R    0.39  
Hull             8    9   +0      -2.21    29.52    -0.28    60.19    10.44    -1.92     0.57     1.78    11.86     4.07P    8.41R    1.62  
Middlesbrough    8    9   -1      -3.15    20.90    -2.80    64.77     9.86     4.92     1.21     3.52    20.58     8.19P    2.65R    0.37  
Millwall         8    9   -5       0.11    52.72    -2.03    53.86     9.65   -14.67     0.08     0.22     2.70     0.67P   20.95R    4.92  
Brentford        8    8   -1      -3.42    19.14    -1.75    64.17    10.27     5.13     1.35     3.64    19.95     7.91P    3.60R    0.52  
Derby            8    8   -3      -3.34    20.30    -3.56    65.82    10.27     5.54     1.74     4.73    24.52    10.16P    2.71R    0.37  
Wigan            8    8   -5      -1.62    34.73    -3.13    54.34     9.87   -13.20     0.09     0.30     3.35     0.91P   19.93R    4.82  
Reading          8    7   -2      -2.17    29.44     0.70    50.81     9.81   -14.21     0.03     0.14     1.76     0.44P   30.92R    8.53  
Luton            8    7   -4      -2.78    25.15    -2.00    52.38    10.73   -15.43     0.13     0.38     3.53     1.09P   27.76R    8.29  
Barnsley         8    5   -8      -4.13    14.15    -5.48    48.40    10.12   -20.41     0.02     0.09     1.10     0.29P   41.29R   14.56  
Stoke            8    2  -10      -7.30     1.72    -7.74    48.09     9.88   -18.22     0.01     0.05     0.87     0.21P   41.44R   14.37  
Huddersfield     8    1  -10      -7.37     1.23    -6.10    41.55     9.96   -26.38     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.05P   67.64R   36.75  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 1 3 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich               9   21  +12       5.57    90.90     7.44    83.72     9.82    34.53    39.79    59.74    90.01    68.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry              9   19   +6       5.37    90.34     4.13    68.60     9.49     8.45     3.17     8.65    39.41    14.71P    0.59R    0.00  
Wycombe              10   19   +5       4.41    83.98     3.71    60.85     9.19    -3.00     0.57     1.68    13.87     3.58P    3.75R    0.03  
Fleetwood_Town        9   17   +4       2.58    73.06     0.94    68.68     9.64     9.48     3.48     8.92    40.33    15.92P    0.64R    0.00  
Sunderland            9   16   +3       0.11    50.37    -2.55    79.43     9.50    27.59    21.33    41.09    81.30    54.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool            10   16   +2       1.86    66.47     1.34    64.76     9.17     5.27     1.09     3.63    24.84     8.06P    1.32R    0.01  
Doncaster             8   15   +4       2.04    69.23     1.00    72.09    10.01    15.85     6.90    16.46    54.40    25.81P    0.32R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       10   15   +1       0.72    56.88     0.07    60.38     9.21    -1.06     0.43     1.47    12.80     3.65P    4.16R    0.04  
Peterborough          9   14  +10      -0.87    41.90     5.97    74.47     9.69    30.18    10.37    23.53    65.75    35.57P    0.13R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         10   13   -1       0.32    53.74     0.78    54.01     9.60   -10.40     0.12     0.38     4.43     1.08P   16.14R    0.45  
Shrewsbury            9   13   -1       0.74    57.68    -0.97    60.72     9.32    -1.30     0.38     1.41    13.87     3.95P    4.03R    0.05  
Oxford_Utd           10   12   +4      -2.02    33.05     3.68    62.55     9.57     9.73     0.84     2.74    19.97     6.59P    3.09R    0.03  
Rotherham             8   12   +4      -1.17    37.87     0.53    69.56    10.55    16.65     5.14    12.49    45.50    21.37P    0.92R    0.01  
Burton_Albion         9   12   +2      -1.00    41.26     1.06    67.57     9.61    13.56     2.57     7.29    36.77    14.97P    0.96R    0.01  
MK_Dons               9   12   -2       0.28    53.48    -1.01    52.73     9.81   -14.32     0.08     0.28     3.91     0.89P   20.31R    0.67  
Gillingham            9   10   +4      -2.65    26.68     3.55    58.27     9.73     3.69     0.30     1.14    10.51     3.08P    7.49R    0.13  
Rochdale              9   10   -4       0.15    52.75     0.36    51.05     9.45   -16.32     0.03     0.12     2.34     0.47P   24.62R    0.79  
Tranmere              9    9   -2      -0.62    45.33     2.90    45.97     9.56   -20.63     0.00     0.04     0.75     0.14P   44.88R    2.38  
Accrington_Stanley    9    7   -6      -3.22    21.99    -2.60    46.92     9.29   -20.07     0.00     0.04     0.75     0.16P   40.16R    2.23  
Portsmouth            7    6   -1      -4.85     8.98    -2.94    67.53    10.32    15.83     3.41     8.88    38.13    17.29P    1.38R    0.01  
Southend              9    4  -13      -5.92     6.59    -8.86    42.93     9.46   -29.88     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.06P   58.52R    5.38  
AFC_Wimbledon        10    3   -9      -7.44     2.36    -3.90    40.25     8.75   -23.48     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   68.52R    7.04  
Bolton                8   -9  -22      -3.47    16.17   -14.63    23.33     9.21   -50.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.05R   80.73  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2019, Bradford 3 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter           10   22   +8       5.34    88.77     3.71    79.01     9.63    19.38    21.90    49.66    78.86    57.36P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe            10   21   +5       6.48    92.70     3.74    72.44     9.86     8.09     7.70    24.30    54.88    30.87P    0.14R    0.03  
Cheltenham       10   20  +10       5.12    87.15     8.28    71.09     9.75    12.70     6.14    21.26    50.38    27.32P    0.16R    0.03  
Swindon          10   20   +7       4.09    81.89     3.70    75.36     9.83    16.01    13.13    35.59    67.04    43.43P    0.04R    0.01  
Forest_Green     10   18   +2       3.77    80.76     1.05    70.84     9.66     7.51     5.39    19.31    48.55    26.35P    0.24R    0.06  
Bradford         10   17   +5       0.45    53.54     0.87    78.05    10.13    22.45    20.63    46.89    75.85    55.88P    0.03R    0.01  
Newport_County   10   17   +3       3.57    79.59     3.13    67.54     9.63     5.28     2.74    11.67    35.09    16.91P    0.53R    0.13  
Crawley_Town     10   16   +3       2.91    74.71     3.97    61.11     9.57    -3.18     0.69     3.72    15.44     5.96P    2.53R    0.75  
Grimsby          10   15   +4       1.93    67.79     4.72    60.50     9.42    -1.01     0.45     2.98    14.00     5.10P    2.69R    0.76  
Colchester       10   15   +3      -0.00    50.16     1.06    70.20     9.68    11.85     4.98    18.36    46.94    25.96P    0.21R    0.05  
Cambridge_Utd    10   14   +3       2.24    70.49     5.56    60.62     9.45    -0.27     0.49     3.07    14.10     5.25P    2.88R    0.91  
Northampton      10   14   +2      -0.19    48.60     1.23    67.24     9.79     7.91     2.84    11.86    35.28    17.59P    0.62R    0.19  
Port_Vale        10   13   -3       1.43    64.02    -0.29    56.16     9.27   -11.13     0.13     0.99     5.80     1.88P    7.09R    2.56  
Plymouth         10   12   +1      -4.11    18.74    -2.64    70.22    10.39    14.38     6.39    20.45    47.98    28.69P    0.46R    0.13  
Macclesfield     10   12   -1       1.04    61.23     2.93    49.52     9.07   -17.95     0.03     0.15     1.42     0.36P   21.48R    9.45  
Walsall          10   12   -4      -2.24    31.23    -4.95    66.54     9.94     3.95     2.49    10.49    32.29    16.67P    0.80R    0.25  
Salford_City     10   11   -4       0.52    56.55     1.24    44.79     9.35   -28.41     0.00     0.05     0.51     0.09P   41.57R   23.09  
Carlisle         10   11   -6      -1.90    34.34    -4.75    60.07     9.79    -6.57     0.55     2.97    13.29     5.36P    3.82R    1.33  
Mansfield        10   10   -3      -6.12     8.20    -6.60    64.84     9.72     5.24     1.66     7.77    26.94    13.37P    1.03R    0.29  
Oldham           10   10   -3      -3.86    19.29    -3.27    63.49     9.89     3.27     1.29     6.01    22.90    10.47P    1.83R    0.55  
Leyton_Orient    10    9   -6      -1.50    37.92    -1.13    45.84     9.55   -24.97     0.01     0.13     0.87     0.26P   36.95R   19.94  
Morecambe        10    6  -10      -4.55    13.61    -5.24    43.95     9.18   -27.00     0.00     0.03     0.37     0.10P   44.64R   25.69  
Scunthorpe       10    5   -8      -9.77     1.28    -9.61    57.12    10.37    -3.91     0.34     2.13     9.79     4.31P    7.39R    2.98  
Stevenage        10    4   -8      -8.72     1.52    -6.74    49.06     9.46   -13.64     0.01     0.15     1.42     0.47P   22.86R   10.80  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2019, AFC_Fylde 3 1 Eastleigh; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Bromley            12   26   +8       7.22    92.45     4.46    76.06     9.63    13.01    13.65    57.43    22.91P    0.34R    0.01  
Halifax            12   25  +10       8.18    95.15     9.35    75.90     9.30    16.48    12.22    57.72    22.17P    0.24R    0.01  
Woking             12   25  +10       7.53    92.61     8.52    71.85    10.30    10.35     8.05    41.12    14.91P    1.69R    0.07  
Yeovil             12   22   +6       1.36    60.17    -0.24    82.68     9.69    26.94    36.22    81.37    51.25P    0.06R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     12   20   +3       2.25    67.56     1.06    67.87     9.50     4.69     3.03    25.66     8.02P    3.15R    0.17  
Barnet             11   19   +3       2.83    72.73     1.31    71.64     9.56    10.03     6.00    39.44    14.11P    1.27R    0.06  
Dag_&_Red          12   19   +1       2.38    68.48     0.73    66.60     9.48     2.44     2.00    21.45     6.19P    4.20R    0.26  
Maidenhead         12   18   +6       2.49    70.01     7.39    60.18     9.32    -0.75     0.48     7.83     1.84P   13.47R    1.15  
Stockport          12   17   -3       3.63    77.25     1.98    54.33     9.82   -17.49     0.13     2.96     0.65P   34.94R    5.76  
Barrow             12   16   +2      -0.47    46.73     1.94    62.74     9.44     2.11     0.87    12.15     3.38P    8.67R    0.77  
Torquay            12   16   -1       2.10    67.14     3.14    55.20    10.00   -12.85     0.23     3.70     0.86P   31.50R    5.30  
Boreham_Wood       12   15   +5      -2.37    32.09     3.69    60.89     9.39     3.98     0.57     9.12     2.57P   11.68R    0.98  
Sutton_United      12   15   +2      -1.60    38.13     1.73    61.93     9.53     2.41     0.72    11.04     3.03P   10.27R    0.82  
Hartlepool         12   15   -4      -0.40    47.69    -2.33    57.34     9.41   -10.87     0.23     4.21     1.01P   22.73R    2.69  
Solihull_Moors     11   14   +2      -2.90    27.08    -0.72    67.82     9.72    10.71     3.06    26.89     9.33P    3.54R    0.19  
Notts_County       12   14   +2      -6.28    10.54    -3.90    72.87     9.93    20.56     8.60    47.20    22.14P    1.22R    0.04  
Aldershot          12   14   -4       0.30    53.78    -0.18    53.39     8.94   -14.30     0.05     1.40     0.30P   36.47R    5.36  
Harrogate_Town     12   13   -3      -4.16    20.52    -3.96    60.36     9.57    -2.23     0.53     8.18     2.34P   14.10R    1.35  
AFC_Fylde          11   13   -4      -4.40    17.57    -7.51    66.60     9.76     4.32     2.28    22.43     7.66P    4.79R    0.24  
Eastleigh          12   13   -4      -1.66    37.67    -1.17    57.97     9.33    -6.57     0.20     4.80     1.11P   20.08R    2.36  
Wrexham            11   11   -3      -5.10    13.57    -4.58    61.84     9.56     1.51     0.78    10.75     3.42P   10.67R    0.91  
Chorley            12    9  -13      -1.59    38.89    -3.20    39.47     9.13   -39.06     0.00     0.03     0.01P   87.43R   57.21  
Chesterfield       12    8   -9      -8.11     4.74    -8.45    53.28     9.45   -11.33     0.05     1.82     0.50P   36.70R    6.51  
Ebbsfleet_United   12    7  -12      -7.61     5.21    -9.03    52.40     9.45   -14.07     0.04     1.31     0.31P   40.80R    7.81