Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 21 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2019, Burnley 2 0 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         5   15  +11       3.13    88.59     1.89    87.29     8.13    58.80    38.72    86.71    95.83    98.64    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          6   13  +18      -2.18    19.03     3.73    89.72     7.14    81.63    58.71    93.67    98.51    99.58    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         6   11   +3       2.93    81.80     3.29    57.42     8.88     5.50     0.03     0.53     4.21    11.86    38.59     0.69R    0.08  
Bournemouth       6   10   +1       2.65    79.41     3.09    48.93     8.87   -10.90     0.00     0.07     0.69     2.36    10.99     6.14R    0.98  
Tottenham         6    8   +4      -2.51    20.89     0.49    69.73     8.73    32.97     1.13     8.31    39.49    62.31    88.02     0.02R    0.00  
Man_Utd           5    8   +4      -1.00    37.25     0.81    64.62     9.01    21.40     0.41     3.30    18.55    37.70    72.23     0.08R    0.00  
Burnley           6    8   +1       0.96    63.08     3.10    44.45     8.47   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.65     4.32    12.96R    2.75  
Sheff_Utd         6    8   +1       1.23    66.32     3.42    42.38     8.82   -16.49     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.47     3.08    20.76R    5.44  
Chelsea           5    8   +0      -0.85    38.80    -3.17    64.85     9.12    18.01     0.49     3.57    19.58    38.57    71.92     0.08R    0.00  
Arsenal           5    8   +0       0.29    54.03    -1.12    65.25     9.36    19.27     0.48     3.71    21.13    40.91    72.31     0.13R    0.01  
West_Ham          5    8   -1       1.36    68.36    -0.28    48.29     8.96   -11.38     0.01     0.04     0.58     2.23    10.21     7.03R    1.17  
Southampton       6    7   -3       0.43    57.02    -0.32    42.30     8.50   -19.35     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.36     2.63    20.02R    5.05  
Crystal_Palace    5    7   -3       1.00    64.91    -1.51    47.88     8.95   -11.58     0.00     0.04     0.48     1.74     9.11     7.67R    1.48  
Everton           6    7   -4      -2.32    24.96    -5.61    46.73     8.67   -12.35     0.00     0.02     0.37     1.31     6.93     8.90R    1.65  
Brighton          6    6   -3      -0.46    45.40     0.54    37.42     8.10   -23.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.62    39.01R   12.26  
Norwich           6    6   -5       1.36    68.88     3.02    39.38     9.10   -27.19     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.25     1.78    33.59R   11.55  
Newcastle         6    5   -4      -1.98    27.04    -1.66    43.45     8.49   -12.68     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.42     3.20    15.65R    3.24  
Aston_Villa       5    4   -2      -1.14    37.27     1.05    35.44     8.81   -28.02     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.61    49.72R   21.58  
Wolverhampton     5    3   -4      -2.81    16.98    -2.43    43.14     8.87   -14.32     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.50     3.38    18.36R    4.60  
Watford           6    2  -14      -3.73    10.53    -8.33    33.64     8.42   -37.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.24    59.20R   28.16  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2019, Birmingham 0 1 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     8   17   +9       3.94    84.02     5.95    80.51    10.25    25.91    24.35    41.07    77.33    51.58P    0.05R    0.01  
Swansea          8   17   +7       4.83    89.26     5.18    77.52    10.19    19.42    15.47    29.25    67.43    39.09P    0.15R    0.01  
Preston          8   16   +7       3.83    83.19     5.24    73.28    10.34    14.69     8.22    17.47    51.58    25.62P    0.48R    0.06  
QPR              8   16   +2       5.69    92.56     3.00    61.17    10.05    -9.09     0.65     1.90    12.28     3.59P    6.74R    1.09  
Nott'm_Forest    8   15   +5       4.06    85.07     5.00    70.91    10.15    10.88     4.80    11.38    41.91    18.24P    0.77R    0.08  
Bristol_City     8   15   +4       3.44    80.40     3.07    71.89    10.36    11.13     6.34    14.23    46.19    21.79P    0.63R    0.09  
Charlton         8   14   +3       3.25    79.49     3.20    61.33    10.53    -3.59     1.01     2.55    13.84     4.99P    7.13R    1.30  
Sheff_Wed        8   13   +4       0.81    58.04     2.18    65.48    10.11     4.80     1.81     4.72    23.55     8.95P    2.66R    0.31  
West_Brom        7   13   +3       1.16    61.87    -0.41    78.91    10.52    21.86    20.24    35.15    72.02    45.91P    0.10R    0.02  
Blackburn        8   13   +1       2.42    73.44     1.67    64.54    10.16     0.33     1.45     3.91    20.43     7.39P    3.52R    0.49  
Birmingham       8   13   -2       3.16    79.84    -0.49    60.48     9.96    -8.30     0.47     1.49    10.70     3.18P    7.54R    1.31  
Fulham           8   12   +5      -0.62    44.11     2.58    71.24    10.94    15.72     6.85    14.70    44.60    23.23P    1.13R    0.13  
Cardiff          8   12   -1       0.03    50.71    -2.53    66.81    10.73     3.23     3.00     7.05    28.25    12.42P    2.52R    0.37  
Hull             8    9   +0      -2.23    29.30    -0.30    60.17    10.30    -1.82     0.57     1.72    11.65     3.94P    8.29R    1.63  
Middlesbrough    8    9   -1      -3.15    20.83    -2.79    64.76     9.78     4.91     1.26     3.54    20.48     8.21P    2.66R    0.37  
Millwall         8    9   -5       0.13    53.19    -2.07    53.81     9.75   -14.65     0.09     0.30     3.01     0.77P   21.61R    5.56  
Brentford        8    8   -1      -3.44    19.34    -1.76    64.06    10.27     5.00     1.39     3.81    19.99     8.20P    3.90R    0.58  
Derby            8    8   -3      -3.21    21.30    -3.41    65.41    10.22     4.96     1.74     4.72    23.53     9.76P    2.86R    0.41  
Wigan            8    8   -5      -1.61    34.98    -3.10    54.12     9.91   -13.41     0.09     0.36     3.36     0.94P   21.01R    5.07  
Reading          8    7   -2      -2.09    30.22     0.75    50.59     9.84   -14.45     0.03     0.13     1.60     0.39P   32.10R    9.75  
Luton            8    7   -4      -2.77    25.23    -2.00    52.34    10.75   -15.42     0.12     0.37     3.57     1.03P   28.17R    8.42  
Barnsley         8    5   -8      -4.22    13.61    -5.60    48.67    10.37   -19.88     0.02     0.09     1.40     0.42P   40.90R   14.73  
Stoke            8    2  -10      -7.35     1.64    -7.85    48.17     9.86   -17.93     0.02     0.07     0.92     0.27P   41.53R   14.77  
Huddersfield     7    1   -8      -6.79     1.62    -5.51    42.61    10.25   -24.31     0.00     0.03     0.38     0.09P   63.54R   33.44  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 1 3 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich               9   21  +12       5.47    90.52     7.31    84.02     9.89    35.09    40.96    60.66    90.24    69.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry              9   19   +6       5.45    90.58     4.23    68.52     9.54     8.32     3.13     8.51    39.14    14.60P    0.65R    0.00  
Wycombe              10   19   +5       4.26    83.04     3.47    61.14     9.27    -2.48     0.52     1.77    14.66     3.92P    3.56R    0.03  
Fleetwood_Town        9   17   +4       2.59    73.23     0.94    68.66     9.60     9.49     3.36     8.77    40.12    15.67P    0.58R    0.00  
Sunderland            9   16   +3       0.07    50.20    -2.58    79.51     9.50    27.70    21.06    41.08    81.55    54.18P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool            10   16   +2       1.86    66.39     1.36    64.76     9.19     5.23     1.20     3.66    24.92     8.11P    1.42R    0.01  
Doncaster             8   15   +4       2.00    68.77     0.92    72.29     9.90    16.15     6.78    16.40    55.37    25.99P    0.30R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       10   15   +1       0.67    56.62    -0.03    60.41     9.20    -1.01     0.40     1.42    12.68     3.68P    4.20R    0.03  
Peterborough          9   14  +10      -0.85    42.08     6.02    74.45     9.77    30.13    10.19    23.50    65.59    35.33P    0.15R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         10   13   -1       0.34    53.74     0.82    53.96     9.59   -10.46     0.10     0.38     4.52     1.18P   15.72R    0.40  
Shrewsbury            9   13   -1       0.75    57.77    -0.94    60.60     9.40    -1.44     0.42     1.58    13.69     4.09P    4.19R    0.05  
Oxford_Utd           10   12   +4      -2.02    32.90     3.66    62.76     9.62    10.05     0.89     2.83    20.56     6.86P    3.01R    0.02  
Rotherham             8   12   +4      -1.12    38.58     0.59    69.22    10.67    16.07     5.03    12.25    44.67    20.64P    1.12R    0.01  
Burton_Albion         9   12   +2      -0.97    41.58     1.09    67.40     9.62    13.25     2.47     7.15    36.30    14.37P    0.88R    0.01  
MK_Dons               9   12   -2       0.36    54.23    -0.87    52.49     9.85   -14.74     0.06     0.27     3.76     0.88P   21.04R    0.68  
Gillingham            9   10   +4      -2.62    26.88     3.62    58.19     9.79     3.55     0.28     1.14    10.57     3.21P    7.86R    0.09  
Rochdale              9   10   -4       0.17    53.03     0.40    50.93     9.39   -16.48     0.03     0.11     2.20     0.44P   24.69R    0.88  
Tranmere              9    9   -2      -0.57    45.86     2.99    45.86     9.57   -20.93     0.01     0.03     0.75     0.16P   45.12R    2.70  
Accrington_Stanley    9    7   -6      -3.23    21.91    -2.64    47.08     9.37   -19.81     0.01     0.04     0.83     0.19P   39.36R    2.20  
Portsmouth            7    6   -1      -4.82     8.96    -2.89    67.34    10.36    15.61     3.11     8.43    37.51    16.92P    1.48R    0.01  
Southend              9    4  -13      -5.96     6.41    -8.96    43.13     9.39   -29.62     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.05P   57.38R    5.26  
AFC_Wimbledon        10    3   -9      -7.39     2.42    -3.79    40.05     8.81   -23.83     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   69.35R    7.40  
Bolton                8   -9  -22      -3.50    15.85   -14.70    23.61     9.24   -49.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.87R   80.21  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2019, Bradford 3 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter           10   22   +8       5.31    88.89     3.65    79.22     9.70    19.65    22.87    50.43    79.61    58.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe            10   21   +5       6.47    92.70     3.75    72.43     9.85     8.08     7.74    24.20    54.56    30.45P    0.13R    0.03  
Cheltenham       10   20  +10       5.12    87.14     8.30    71.03     9.76    12.65     6.03    20.92    50.16    27.21P    0.15R    0.02  
Swindon          10   20   +7       4.11    82.37     3.72    75.43     9.81    16.15    12.91    35.75    67.37    43.69P    0.05R    0.01  
Forest_Green     10   18   +2       3.80    80.81     1.09    70.78     9.60     7.42     5.17    18.98    48.10    25.69P    0.25R    0.05  
Bradford         10   17   +5       0.45    53.75     0.81    78.08    10.12    22.49    20.79    47.12    75.94    56.14P    0.03R    0.01  
Newport_County   10   17   +3       3.59    79.64     3.15    67.49     9.54     5.23     2.59    11.51    34.89    16.55P    0.46R    0.15  
Crawley_Town     10   16   +3       2.94    74.76     4.03    61.03     9.51    -3.31     0.63     3.40    14.96     5.64P    2.39R    0.72  
Grimsby          10   15   +4       1.91    67.36     4.67    60.64     9.46    -0.85     0.47     3.02    14.29     5.32P    2.59R    0.77  
Colchester       10   15   +3      -0.05    49.84     0.99    70.43     9.62    12.16     5.05    18.78    48.06    26.55P    0.20R    0.06  
Cambridge_Utd    10   14   +3       2.20    70.37     5.52    60.64     9.46    -0.21     0.55     3.03    14.28     5.25P    2.76R    0.89  
Northampton      10   14   +2      -0.23    48.37     1.22    67.16     9.83     7.80     2.78    11.75    35.11    17.55P    0.62R    0.17  
Port_Vale        10   13   -3       1.44    64.19    -0.27    56.19     9.23   -11.04     0.12     0.92     5.79     1.75P    6.87R    2.50  
Plymouth         10   12   +1      -4.04    18.83    -2.56    70.05    10.42    14.08     6.05    20.09    47.51    28.48P    0.51R    0.16  
Macclesfield     10   12   -1       1.01    60.73     2.90    49.54     9.02   -17.91     0.01     0.10     1.32     0.30P   21.50R    9.46  
Walsall          10   12   -4      -2.20    31.58    -4.88    66.40     9.93     3.80     2.42    10.29    31.66    16.20P    0.90R    0.24  
Salford_City     10   11   -4       0.51    56.33     1.20    44.80     9.36   -28.35     0.00     0.05     0.51     0.13P   41.69R   22.94  
Carlisle         10   11   -6      -2.02    33.45    -4.89    60.24     9.84    -6.25     0.53     3.07    13.84     5.39P    3.77R    1.33  
Mansfield        10   10   -3      -6.18     7.83    -6.68    65.01     9.72     5.48     1.73     8.07    27.34    13.89P    1.00R    0.29  
Oldham           10   10   -3      -3.88    19.37    -3.27    63.43     9.82     3.21     1.13     6.00    22.60    10.49P    1.71R    0.57  
Leyton_Orient    10    9   -6      -1.50    38.03    -1.13    45.85     9.58   -24.97     0.02     0.11     0.83     0.26P   36.65R   19.89  
Morecambe        10    6  -10      -4.51    14.08    -5.13    43.86     9.22   -27.26     0.01     0.03     0.33     0.07P   44.94R   25.93  
Scunthorpe       10    5   -8      -9.69     1.30    -9.51    56.88    10.36    -4.27     0.38     2.16     9.43     4.28P    7.73R    3.00  
Stevenage        10    4   -8      -8.70     1.56    -6.68    49.00     9.51   -13.79     0.02     0.21     1.51     0.53P   23.09R   10.82  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 September 2019, AFC_Fylde 3 1 Eastleigh; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Bromley            12   26   +8       7.24    92.49     4.54    75.97     9.66    12.81    13.42    57.15    22.68P    0.39R    0.01  
Halifax            12   25  +10       8.23    95.38     9.41    75.98     9.39    16.60    12.77    57.92    22.76P    0.30R    0.00  
Woking             12   25  +10       7.61    92.91     8.63    71.53    10.05     9.88     7.31    39.66    14.04P    1.69R    0.06  
Yeovil             12   22   +6       1.40    60.48    -0.16    82.58     9.61    26.82    35.80    81.37    50.72P    0.05R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     12   20   +3       2.29    67.96     1.10    67.96     9.52     4.86     3.03    25.93     7.82P    3.19R    0.17  
Barnet             11   19   +3       2.80    72.67     1.29    71.85     9.65    10.31     6.47    40.32    14.86P    1.33R    0.07  
Dag_&_Red          12   19   +1       2.39    68.61     0.75    66.55     9.38     2.39     1.95    20.58     6.04P    4.14R    0.21  
Maidenhead         12   18   +6       2.40    69.17     7.27    60.42     9.31    -0.36     0.44     8.12     1.78P   12.99R    0.98  
Stockport          12   17   -3       3.72    77.93     2.10    54.11     9.88   -17.95     0.14     2.77     0.58P   35.61R    5.97  
Barrow             12   16   +2      -0.51    46.50     1.87    62.86     9.39     2.27     0.89    12.18     3.33P    8.47R    0.64  
Torquay            12   16   -1       2.10    66.74     3.11    55.23     9.99   -12.76     0.20     3.63     0.83P   31.48R    5.02  
Boreham_Wood       12   15   +5      -2.39    31.96     3.63    61.01     9.40     4.17     0.61     9.36     2.53P   11.47R    0.85  
Sutton_United      12   15   +2      -1.64    37.52     1.67    61.97     9.48     2.42     0.70    11.04     3.00P   10.22R    0.74  
Hartlepool         12   15   -4      -0.37    47.90    -2.30    57.27     9.34   -11.01     0.19     4.02     0.86P   22.89R    2.40  
Solihull_Moors     11   14   +2      -2.94    26.85    -0.77    67.80     9.78    10.71     3.06    26.77     9.30P    3.59R    0.21  
Notts_County       12   14   +2      -6.36    10.27    -4.05    73.03     9.90    20.85     8.84    47.51    22.45P    1.17R    0.03  
Aldershot          12   14   -4       0.29    53.63    -0.20    53.36     8.91   -14.27     0.05     1.39     0.26P   36.29R    5.25  
Harrogate_Town     12   13   -3      -4.19    20.38    -4.02    60.36     9.64    -2.21     0.64     8.34     2.55P   14.15R    1.30  
AFC_Fylde          11   13   -4      -4.42    17.77    -7.58    66.47     9.81     4.15     2.33    22.23     7.83P    4.77R    0.29  
Eastleigh          12   13   -4      -1.66    37.82    -1.21    58.10     9.42    -6.32     0.24     5.11     1.23P   20.05R    2.30  
Wrexham            11   11   -3      -5.18    13.22    -4.69    62.23     9.54     2.02     0.81    11.34     3.67P    9.72R    0.84  
Chorley            12    9  -13      -1.41    40.26    -2.86    38.97     9.04   -39.89     0.00     0.03     0.01P   88.47R   58.87  
Chesterfield       12    8   -9      -8.19     4.37    -8.57    53.32     9.43   -11.19     0.07     1.83     0.51P   36.31R    6.13  
Ebbsfleet_United   12    7  -12      -7.58     5.33    -8.96    52.30     9.47   -14.27     0.04     1.41     0.36P   41.23R    7.68