Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 20 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 20 September 2019, Southampton 1 3 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         5   15  +11       3.12    88.72     1.96    87.63     8.15    59.08    47.47    85.73    95.63    98.57    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          5   10  +10      -2.04    20.61     0.29    87.32     7.62    69.61    47.19    87.07    96.17    98.91    99.91     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth       6   10   +1       2.57    78.78     2.87    48.65     8.96   -11.10     0.01     0.03     0.56     2.17    10.76     6.77R    1.20  
Tottenham         5    8   +5      -1.03    34.83     1.54    72.26     8.94    35.77     3.36    14.83    49.33    71.18    91.84     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           5    8   +4      -1.00    37.07     0.81    64.68     9.10    21.50     0.56     3.62    17.04    36.43    72.34     0.10R    0.01  
Leicester         5    8   +2       1.07    64.81     1.95    54.51     9.14     2.66     0.03     0.33     2.28     7.31    27.37     1.70R    0.22  
Chelsea           5    8   +0      -0.94    37.53    -3.34    64.74     9.22    17.75     0.64     3.85    17.35    36.51    71.51     0.11R    0.01  
Arsenal           5    8   +0       0.36    55.04    -1.03    65.47     9.34    19.61     0.73     4.30    19.29    40.00    73.62     0.10R    0.01  
West_Ham          5    8   -1       1.38    68.58    -0.33    48.27     8.99   -11.09     0.00     0.05     0.58     1.91    10.28     7.04R    1.26  
Everton           5    7   -2      -0.69    41.69    -3.22    49.96     9.06    -7.12     0.00     0.10     0.82     2.91    13.58     4.87R    0.87  
Southampton       6    7   -3       0.31    55.36    -0.47    42.14     8.53   -19.09     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.27     2.51    20.68R    5.29  
Crystal_Palace    5    7   -3       0.98    64.56    -1.56    47.75     8.97   -11.43     0.00     0.05     0.41     1.50     8.92     7.89R    1.56  
Norwich           5    6   -3       2.21    79.31     3.94    41.49     9.55   -23.59     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.53     3.43    26.57R    8.67  
Burnley           5    5   -1      -0.18    50.32     1.91    42.07     8.77   -15.53     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.42     2.80    20.65R    5.66  
Sheff_Utd         5    5   -1      -0.50    45.95     1.30    38.23     9.01   -22.46     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.17     1.34    36.90R   13.66  
Brighton          5    5   -3      -0.37    47.03     0.01    37.00     8.25   -24.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.62    41.19R   14.20  
Aston_Villa       5    4   -2      -1.11    37.76     1.07    35.82     8.98   -26.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.76    47.55R   21.06  
Newcastle         5    4   -4      -1.13    36.47    -0.97    44.68     8.82   -11.39     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.67     4.83    13.28R    3.03  
Wolverhampton     5    3   -4      -2.72    17.82    -2.30    42.46     8.91   -15.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.38     3.03    19.99R    5.53  
Watford           5    2   -6      -3.91     8.99    -4.41    36.45     8.72   -26.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.68    44.60R   17.76  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 September 2019, Barnsley 0 2 Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     7   16   +9       4.51    88.88     6.23    81.47    10.47    26.88    26.12    43.96    78.92    54.01P    0.05R    0.00  
Swansea          7   16   +7       5.04    91.44     4.96    77.70    10.57    19.20    15.32    29.07    66.92    38.65P    0.17R    0.02  
Charlton         7   14   +5       4.24    87.28     4.69    64.12    10.89     0.28     1.78     4.37    20.37     7.63P    4.78R    0.84  
Bristol_City     7   14   +4       3.86    85.42     3.14    72.46    10.62    11.31     6.86    14.86    47.30    22.59P    0.74R    0.08  
Preston          7   13   +6       2.35    73.53     4.45    70.91    10.70    12.52     5.52    12.40    42.13    19.46P    1.04R    0.14  
West_Brom        7   13   +3       1.27    63.01    -0.27    79.34    10.72    22.71    20.39    35.78    72.26    46.79P    0.13R    0.02  
QPR              7   13   +1       4.04    86.58     2.07    58.90    10.36   -11.31     0.43     1.22     9.01     2.48P   11.05R    2.20  
Birmingham       7   13   -1       4.32    88.28     0.31    62.67    10.32    -6.38     0.88     2.53    15.40     5.04P    5.64R    0.90  
Nott'm_Forest    7   12   +4       2.90    78.78     4.71    69.76    10.48    10.44     3.91     9.55    37.57    16.09P    1.34R    0.14  
Sheff_Wed        7   12   +4       1.28    63.37     2.28    66.11    10.46     5.04     2.15     5.43    25.61     9.99P    2.61R    0.34  
Fulham           7   11   +5      -0.28    47.18     2.48    71.70    11.39    15.87     7.46    15.64    45.84    24.01P    1.24R    0.18  
Blackburn        7   10   +0       0.96    61.09     0.96    62.15    10.45    -2.05     0.83     2.46    15.07     5.03P    6.23R    1.12  
Middlesbrough    7    9   +0      -2.00    29.15    -2.01    66.78    10.02     6.79     1.92     5.27    26.57    11.12P    1.94R    0.25  
Cardiff          7    9   -2      -1.37    36.28    -3.16    64.57    11.04     1.21     1.90     4.82    22.30     9.34P    4.65R    0.77  
Millwall         7    9   -4       1.37    66.56    -1.18    55.86    10.03   -12.93     0.13     0.44     4.71     1.23P   17.05R    4.13  
Luton            7    7   -1      -1.90    31.54     0.23    56.99    11.32    -7.48     0.49     1.41     8.63     2.99P   16.59R    4.44  
Reading          7    7   -1      -0.95    40.70     1.46    52.59    10.13   -12.75     0.05     0.19     2.80     0.66P   26.01R    7.22  
Brentford        7    7   -1      -2.76    22.63    -1.30    65.20    10.48     5.95     1.67     4.44    23.11     9.33P    3.50R    0.59  
Derby            7    7   -3      -3.24    19.46    -3.96    65.45    10.52     4.45     1.77     4.84    23.65     9.93P    3.41R    0.54  
Hull             7    6   -3      -3.52    17.22    -2.76    56.29    10.71    -8.62     0.28     0.90     6.63     2.15P   17.13R    4.27  
Wigan            7    5   -7      -2.96    20.74    -4.62    51.17    10.12   -17.70     0.05     0.16     1.98     0.55P   31.43R    9.54  
Barnsley         7    5   -7      -3.26    18.92    -5.11    50.05    10.49   -19.37     0.04     0.18     1.96     0.58P   36.32R   12.58  
Huddersfield     7    1   -8      -6.78     1.48    -5.43    42.73    10.22   -24.57     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.06P   63.47R   33.49  
Stoke            7    1  -10      -7.32     1.08    -8.18    47.87    10.11   -19.49     0.02     0.08     0.96     0.28P   43.48R   16.21  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 September 2019, Bolton 0 0 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Coventry              9   19   +6       5.32    90.05     4.03    68.32     9.44     7.99     2.72     7.23    36.87    13.18P    0.61R    0.00  
Ipswich               8   18  +11       4.17    85.35     6.74    82.10    10.17    33.97    30.94    50.63    85.60    60.95P    0.02R    0.00  
Wycombe               9   16   +4       2.82    74.96     2.76    58.76     9.46    -5.16     0.34     1.06     9.98     2.52P    6.36R    0.05  
Sunderland            8   15   +3       1.01    59.36    -1.80    81.06     9.71    30.03    25.73    46.01    84.09    58.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool             9   15   +2       2.19    70.18     1.30    65.04     9.48     5.04     1.42     3.94    25.04     8.40P    1.44R    0.02  
Peterborough          8   14  +12       0.09    50.54     7.21    76.02     9.96    32.87    13.16    27.55    69.47    39.26P    0.12R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        8   14   +3       1.65    66.39     1.01    67.33     9.90     8.94     2.62     6.96    34.31    13.16P    1.07R    0.01  
Lincoln_City          9   13   +5       0.50    55.23     4.85    60.27    10.02     3.56     0.64     1.89    14.52     4.49P    5.25R    0.08  
Burton_Albion         8   12   +3       0.37    54.13     2.05    69.90     9.78    16.06     4.09    10.23    44.59    19.18P    0.52R    0.00  
Doncaster             7   12   +2       0.84    58.50    -0.36    69.61    10.24    12.61     4.38    10.56    43.51    18.54P    0.82R    0.01  
MK_Dons               8   12   -1       1.81    68.04     0.34    55.78    10.21   -11.11     0.19     0.70     6.99     1.79P   13.35R    0.35  
Bristol_Rovers        9   12   -1      -0.65    44.41    -1.56    57.64     9.49    -4.86     0.23     0.78     7.96     2.28P    7.87R    0.10  
Shrewsbury            8   12   -1       0.79    58.46    -1.43    60.46     9.73    -2.57     0.45     1.55    13.49     3.83P    4.80R    0.04  
Rotherham             7   11   +4      -0.38    46.12     1.05    71.54    10.84    19.37     7.24    16.24    51.99    25.49P    0.70R    0.00  
Gillingham            8   10   +5      -1.70    33.71     3.91    59.75    10.01     4.70     0.57     1.65    13.35     4.09P    5.92R    0.05  
Rochdale              8   10   -3       1.04    61.74     0.58    52.08     9.66   -16.23     0.04     0.21     2.91     0.62P   21.77R    0.69  
Oxford_Utd            9    9   -2      -2.78    25.17    -0.88    57.14     9.72    -2.62     0.20     0.69     8.02     2.24P    9.40R    0.12  
Portsmouth            6    6   +0      -3.48    14.59    -1.99    69.78    10.51    18.62     5.04    12.05    45.55    21.55P    0.92R    0.01  
Tranmere              8    6   -3      -2.32    27.38     1.93    42.82     9.73   -24.66     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.07P   57.50R    4.34  
Accrington_Stanley    8    6   -6      -2.72    24.50    -2.33    47.47     9.55   -20.19     0.01     0.05     1.02     0.21P   37.91R    1.65  
AFC_Wimbledon         9    3   -7      -6.28     4.06    -2.15    42.57     9.14   -19.98     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P   57.99R    4.23  
Southend              8    1  -14      -7.64     1.19    -9.85    40.46     9.60   -33.21     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.04P   67.44R    7.61  
Bolton                7  -10  -22      -3.71    12.52   -15.40    22.49     9.46   -53.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.20R   80.65  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 September 2019, Carlisle 0 0 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            9   21   +8       5.73    91.89     3.74    79.89     9.86    20.07    25.87    54.42    81.88    61.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe             9   18   +2       5.77    91.11     2.14    70.01    10.14     3.92     5.58    18.89    45.82    24.58P    0.51R    0.13  
Cheltenham        9   17   +8       3.61    79.92     6.45    67.56     9.94     7.69     3.36    13.48    37.87    18.67P    0.64R    0.16  
Swindon           9   17   +6       2.78    74.39     3.20    73.28    10.10    14.32     9.67    29.66    59.89    37.16P    0.18R    0.04  
Forest_Green      9   17   +2       4.32    85.16     1.35    71.56     9.88     7.97     6.80    22.60    52.51    29.42P    0.28R    0.09  
Newport_County    9   16   +3       3.82    82.33     3.01    67.94     9.77     5.33     3.38    13.21    38.26    18.78P    0.62R    0.15  
Crawley_Town      9   15   +3       3.16    77.62     3.79    60.85     9.74    -4.01     0.75     3.88    16.01     6.13P    3.39R    1.13  
Cambridge_Utd     9   14   +4       3.35    79.73     6.18    62.08     9.75     0.77     0.97     4.79    19.13     7.60P    2.63R    0.86  
Bradford          9   14   +3      -0.54    45.19    -0.22    75.65    10.50    19.19    15.77    38.79    68.16    47.78P    0.10R    0.02  
Northampton       9   13   +2       0.39    54.24     1.56    68.07    10.14     8.57     3.88    14.94    39.91    21.11P    0.80R    0.23  
Grimsby           9   12   +3       0.66    57.27     4.25    58.70     9.62    -2.34     0.44     2.47    11.20     4.25P    5.02R    1.89  
Plymouth          9   12   +3      -2.88    25.06    -0.82    73.83    10.59    19.77    12.51    33.66    62.63    42.55P    0.20R    0.04  
Colchester        9   12   +2      -0.98    41.24     0.97    68.92     9.81    11.36     4.18    16.22    43.56    23.76P    0.52R    0.17  
Macclesfield      9   12   +0       2.03    70.36     3.43    50.83     9.24   -17.12     0.03     0.28     2.21     0.57P   20.21R    9.03  
Port_Vale         9   12   -3       1.74    67.88    -0.39    56.22     9.43   -11.35     0.16     1.15     6.70     2.09P    8.61R    3.38  
Salford_City      9   11   -1       0.96    60.46     2.61    47.25     9.74   -23.05     0.01     0.16     1.42     0.36P   34.62R   18.61  
Carlisle          9   11   -4      -1.29    38.91    -3.89    62.06     9.94    -3.56     0.99     5.02    19.41     8.23P    3.01R    1.06  
Mansfield         9    9   -3      -5.57     9.02    -6.28    65.70     9.88     5.98     2.35     9.89    31.28    16.31P    1.21R    0.35  
Leyton_Orient     9    9   -5      -0.80    43.90    -1.20    46.88     9.75   -24.34     0.01     0.13     1.25     0.33P   36.25R   20.21  
Walsall           9    9   -5      -3.49    20.59    -5.39    64.14    10.22     1.89     1.72     7.90    25.96    13.08P    2.11R    0.72  
Oldham            9    7   -5      -4.83    12.25    -4.26    61.70    10.01     1.03     0.89     4.78    18.87     8.40P    3.33R    1.24  
Morecambe         9    6   -8      -3.82    17.08    -4.26    45.33     9.39   -24.89     0.00     0.07     0.57     0.16P   42.11R   24.13  
Scunthorpe        9    5   -7      -8.66     1.92    -8.95    58.55    10.62    -2.84     0.64     3.37    13.60     6.37P    7.21R    3.14  
Stevenage         9    3   -8      -8.58     1.25    -7.00    49.02     9.74   -14.38     0.03     0.23     1.88     0.61P   26.42R   13.20  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 September 2019, Barnet 2 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking             11   24  +10       8.24    95.01     9.02    72.97    10.55    11.46    10.14    45.15    17.28P    1.49R    0.09  
Bromley            11   23   +7       5.66    87.92     3.59    73.43     9.95    10.37     9.78    46.60    17.50P    0.96R    0.02  
Halifax            11   22   +8       7.11    93.51     8.11    72.94     9.53    12.66     7.75    44.56    15.51P    0.84R    0.03  
Yeovil             11   19   +5       0.03    49.63    -0.78    81.05    10.13    26.16    30.60    76.10    45.62P    0.19R    0.01  
Barnet             10   19   +5       3.87    80.97     2.85    74.30     9.82    13.95    10.36    50.63    20.42P    0.72R    0.03  
Dag_&_Red          11   18   +1       2.91    73.11     0.99    67.13     9.80     2.64     2.60    23.66     7.03P    4.40R    0.28  
Maidenhead         11   17   +6       2.85    73.34     7.39    60.69     9.56    -0.62     0.56     8.86     2.10P   13.42R    1.02  
Dover_Athletic     11   17   +1       1.15    59.80    -0.19    65.20     9.82     1.10     1.82    18.41     5.39P    6.29R    0.41  
Stockport          11   17   +1       3.88    79.24     4.13    58.30    10.45    -9.24     0.60     7.24     1.86P   22.69R    2.79  
Torquay            11   15   -1       2.41    69.86     3.10    55.16    10.41   -14.01     0.29     4.25     1.06P   32.67R    5.62  
Hartlepool         11   15   -2       0.49    54.67    -1.10    59.17     9.59    -8.19     0.37     6.46     1.56P   17.91R    1.68  
Solihull_Moors     10   14   +3      -1.93    33.53    -0.36    69.50    10.10    12.21     4.97    33.15    12.28P    2.86R    0.17  
Notts_County       11   14   +3      -5.01    14.84    -3.05    75.75    10.14    23.96    14.64    58.39    29.84P    0.75R    0.03  
Barrow             11   13   -1      -1.45    38.69    -0.07    59.73     9.64    -2.95     0.48     7.46     1.93P   15.78R    1.51  
Eastleigh          11   13   -2      -0.79    44.22     0.02    59.71     9.62    -3.90     0.40     7.09     1.75P   16.10R    1.71  
Boreham_Wood       11   12   +1      -2.95    27.20     1.16    57.38     9.48    -2.77     0.23     4.77     1.22P   21.52R    2.37  
Sutton_United      11   12   -2      -2.40    30.98    -1.02    57.78     9.72    -5.35     0.23     5.35     1.30P   21.36R    2.32  
Harrogate_Town     11   12   -3      -3.93    20.67    -4.15    61.15     9.80    -1.60     0.70     9.94     2.83P   13.12R    1.19  
Wrexham            10   11   -2      -3.77    20.18    -3.61    64.29     9.86     3.99     1.52    16.60     5.54P    7.47R    0.65  
Aldershot          11   11   -5      -1.41    39.23    -1.22    50.86     9.22   -16.59     0.02     0.92     0.17P   47.86R    9.09  
AFC_Fylde          10   10   -6      -5.44    11.53    -8.64    64.32    10.08     1.34     1.61    17.14     5.80P    8.08R    0.61  
Chesterfield       11    8   -5      -7.65     4.91    -5.83    56.55     9.67    -4.27     0.21     4.14     1.21P   24.89R    3.31  
Chorley            11    8  -13      -1.41    40.08    -3.43    38.56     9.42   -41.41     0.00     0.05     0.00P   88.57R   60.47  
Ebbsfleet_United   11    7   -9      -6.82     6.81    -6.93    55.15     9.75    -8.93     0.11     3.08     0.81P   30.07R    4.59