Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 19 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 September 2019, Aston_Villa 0 0 West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         5   15  +11       3.16    88.76     1.97    87.55     8.13    59.07    47.60    85.50    95.58    98.59    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          5   10  +10      -2.05    20.56     0.26    87.22     7.60    69.62    47.30    86.87    96.11    98.84    99.91     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         5    8   +5      -1.02    35.10     1.53    72.07     8.97    35.49     3.07    14.73    48.52    70.60    91.51     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd           5    8   +4      -0.97    37.69     0.87    64.74     9.07    21.65     0.61     3.82    17.16    36.54    72.64     0.09R    0.01  
Leicester         5    8   +2       1.05    64.64     1.93    54.46     9.03     2.57     0.03     0.28     2.14     6.93    26.89     1.60R    0.21  
Chelsea           5    8   +0      -0.96    37.09    -3.37    64.93     9.15    18.15     0.64     4.04    17.79    37.27    72.71     0.08R    0.01  
Arsenal           5    8   +0       0.35    54.95    -1.01    65.55     9.39    19.85     0.74     4.53    19.96    40.35    73.96     0.08R    0.01  
West_Ham          5    8   -1       1.35    67.89    -0.39    48.52     9.07   -10.72     0.00     0.05     0.60     2.16    10.89     6.86R    1.29  
Bournemouth       5    7   -1       1.01    64.88     0.99    45.62     9.15   -15.59     0.00     0.02     0.27     1.08     6.37    12.80R    3.00  
Southampton       5    7   -1       1.60    71.94     1.35    44.79     8.83   -14.82     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.79     4.98    13.65R    2.95  
Everton           5    7   -2      -0.73    41.20    -3.30    50.06     8.95    -6.95     0.00     0.07     0.78     2.86    13.99     4.67R    0.71  
Crystal_Palace    5    7   -3       0.99    64.80    -1.52    47.72     8.98   -11.53     0.01     0.04     0.36     1.49     8.73     8.04R    1.63  
Norwich           5    6   -3       2.24    79.65     4.04    41.37     9.53   -23.92     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.52     3.28    26.75R    8.91  
Burnley           5    5   -1      -0.14    50.77     1.98    42.33     8.85   -15.19     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.45     3.06    20.25R    5.41  
Sheff_Utd         5    5   -1      -0.44    46.72     1.36    37.95     8.87   -23.04     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14     1.12    38.07R   13.88  
Brighton          5    5   -3      -0.35    47.09     0.05    36.99     8.31   -24.60     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.67    41.47R   14.46  
Aston_Villa       5    4   -2      -1.11    37.74     1.08    35.45     8.87   -27.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.65    49.30R   21.81  
Newcastle         5    4   -4      -1.16    36.08    -1.02    44.83     8.80   -11.13     0.00     0.02     0.17     0.78     4.93    12.84R    2.77  
Wolverhampton     5    3   -4      -2.78    17.52    -2.40    42.87     8.86   -14.34     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.39     3.18    18.68R    5.03  
Watford           5    2   -6      -3.90     8.98    -4.41    36.40     8.70   -27.08     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.66    44.78R   17.90  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 September 2019, Barnsley 0 2 Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     7   16   +9       4.50    88.69     6.20    81.60    10.46    27.11    26.72    44.13    79.42    54.29P    0.06R    0.00  
Swansea          7   16   +7       4.99    91.33     4.91    77.83    10.53    19.44    15.18    29.42    67.42    39.02P    0.15R    0.02  
Charlton         7   14   +5       4.23    87.19     4.70    64.08    10.90     0.15     1.80     4.55    20.18     7.75P    4.85R    0.89  
Bristol_City     7   14   +4       3.83    84.92     3.09    72.39    10.64    11.25     6.79    14.89    47.12    22.38P    0.76R    0.10  
Preston          7   13   +6       2.34    73.30     4.44    71.03    10.77    12.72     5.83    12.71    42.79    20.01P    1.04R    0.13  
West_Brom        7   13   +3       1.23    62.55    -0.32    79.30    10.67    22.67    20.02    35.45    71.99    46.43P    0.15R    0.01  
QPR              7   13   +1       4.03    86.32     2.09    58.93    10.41   -11.40     0.42     1.35     9.15     2.68P   11.14R    2.10  
Birmingham       7   13   -1       4.32    88.47     0.30    62.57    10.38    -6.54     0.93     2.51    15.23     5.01P    5.94R    0.99  
Nott'm_Forest    7   12   +4       2.96    79.22     4.80    69.44    10.49    10.05     3.67     9.13    36.49    15.60P    1.33R    0.16  
Sheff_Wed        7   12   +4       1.26    63.38     2.28    66.06    10.39     4.94     2.18     5.35    25.24     9.87P    2.67R    0.39  
Fulham           7   11   +5      -0.27    47.29     2.52    71.41    11.31    15.43     6.99    14.87    45.12    23.24P    1.34R    0.21  
Blackburn        7   10   +0       0.89    60.31     0.88    62.16    10.43    -1.92     0.97     2.54    15.09     5.18P    6.18R    1.18  
Middlesbrough    7    9   +0      -2.01    29.20    -2.04    66.89    10.05     6.94     2.00     5.42    27.24    11.34P    1.90R    0.23  
Cardiff          7    9   -2      -1.38    36.15    -3.20    64.82    11.00     1.58     2.00     4.93    22.91     9.60P    4.51R    0.71  
Millwall         7    9   -4       1.42    66.96    -1.12    55.75     9.99   -13.15     0.15     0.48     4.65     1.25P   16.99R    3.94  
Luton            7    7   -1      -1.84    32.30     0.30    57.02    11.37    -7.39     0.47     1.43     8.57     2.96P   16.96R    4.46  
Reading          7    7   -1      -0.88    41.52     1.57    52.41    10.22   -13.14     0.11     0.32     2.81     0.76P   26.96R    7.53  
Brentford        7    7   -1      -2.75    22.78    -1.28    65.33    10.61     6.13     1.83     4.83    23.58     9.71P    3.52R    0.62  
Derby            7    7   -3      -3.21    19.69    -3.89    65.28    10.48     4.18     1.55     4.47    23.30     9.50P    3.42R    0.55  
Hull             7    6   -3      -3.48    17.22    -2.70    56.18    10.71    -8.82     0.23     0.75     6.41     1.95P   17.30R    4.58  
Wigan            7    5   -7      -3.02    20.27    -4.70    51.42    10.11   -17.38     0.06     0.19     2.06     0.61P   30.36R    8.90  
Barnsley         7    5   -7      -3.27    18.81    -5.12    50.12    10.55   -19.27     0.06     0.20     1.98     0.58P   36.10R   12.75  
Huddersfield     7    1   -8      -6.83     1.50    -5.50    42.99    10.18   -24.13     0.01     0.01     0.32     0.08P   62.74R   32.88  
Stoke            7    1  -10      -7.31     1.05    -8.22    47.86    10.12   -19.47     0.01     0.06     0.92     0.20P   43.63R   16.66  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 September 2019, Bolton 0 0 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Coventry              9   19   +6       5.29    90.12     4.00    68.39     9.54     8.05     2.94     7.57    37.42    13.53P    0.64R    0.00  
Ipswich               8   18  +11       4.17    85.32     6.76    82.19    10.14    34.11    31.27    51.08    85.85    61.54P    0.02R    0.00  
Wycombe               9   16   +4       2.79    74.80     2.72    58.83     9.52    -5.05     0.34     1.11    10.05     2.55P    6.38R    0.05  
Sunderland            8   15   +3       0.97    58.94    -1.87    81.10     9.73    30.10    25.99    45.98    84.11    58.17P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool             9   15   +2       2.23    70.42     1.36    64.98     9.42     4.91     1.29     3.74    25.12     8.19P    1.46R    0.01  
Peterborough          8   14  +12       0.09    50.48     7.22    76.05     9.92    32.89    12.85    27.34    69.88    39.35P    0.10R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        8   14   +3       1.56    65.62     0.89    67.57     9.83     9.29     2.68     7.17    35.20    13.37P    0.98R    0.00  
Lincoln_City          9   13   +5       0.56    55.81     4.93    60.11     9.83     3.24     0.53     1.78    13.56     4.13P    5.22R    0.08  
Burton_Albion         8   12   +3       0.42    54.56     2.13    69.61     9.81    15.69     3.92    10.00    43.81    18.37P    0.59R    0.00  
Doncaster             7   12   +2       0.88    58.73    -0.29    69.34    10.18    12.13     3.95     9.99    42.48    17.66P    0.91R    0.01  
MK_Dons               8   12   -1       1.71    67.07     0.16    56.30    10.29   -10.19     0.23     0.88     7.80     2.15P   12.53R    0.29  
Bristol_Rovers        9   12   -1      -0.68    43.90    -1.58    57.61     9.34    -4.89     0.19     0.69     7.79     2.11P    7.79R    0.11  
Shrewsbury            8   12   -1       0.77    58.45    -1.44    60.57     9.57    -2.41     0.38     1.41    13.44     3.73P    4.51R    0.05  
Rotherham             7   11   +4      -0.35    46.25     1.08    71.51    11.02    19.41     7.59    16.53    51.74    25.97P    0.81R    0.00  
Gillingham            8   10   +5      -1.67    33.87     3.95    59.60    10.02     4.36     0.47     1.62    13.14     4.08P    6.28R    0.06  
Rochdale              8   10   -3       1.11    62.45     0.72    51.62     9.61   -16.99     0.05     0.16     2.67     0.54P   22.93R    0.64  
Oxford_Utd            9    9   -2      -2.73    26.12    -0.80    57.11     9.71    -2.68     0.20     0.61     7.91     2.16P    9.52R    0.13  
Portsmouth            6    6   +0      -3.50    14.31    -2.03    69.92    10.54    18.89     5.12    12.29    46.21    22.07P    0.97R    0.00  
Tranmere              8    6   -3      -2.37    26.88     1.87    42.88     9.86   -24.57     0.01     0.02     0.40     0.07P   57.07R    4.48  
Accrington_Stanley    8    6   -6      -2.69    24.64    -2.31    47.63     9.65   -19.82     0.01     0.05     1.11     0.23P   37.66R    1.72  
AFC_Wimbledon         9    3   -7      -6.33     3.83    -2.20    42.81     9.13   -19.67     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.03P   57.28R    3.91  
Southend              8    1  -14      -7.60     1.35    -9.82    40.25     9.62   -33.62     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   67.97R    7.91  
Bolton                7  -10  -22      -3.73    12.50   -15.45    22.50     9.37   -53.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.36R   80.52  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 September 2019, Carlisle 0 0 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            9   21   +8       5.74    92.04     3.76    79.73     9.84    19.86    25.37    54.08    81.46    61.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe             9   18   +2       5.78    91.55     2.13    69.97    10.00     3.87     5.27    18.34    45.72    23.83P    0.45R    0.12  
Cheltenham        9   17   +8       3.57    79.69     6.41    67.72     9.96     7.97     3.70    13.98    38.46    19.21P    0.63R    0.16  
Swindon           9   17   +6       2.78    74.27     3.20    73.25    10.18    14.34    10.16    29.60    59.76    37.22P    0.17R    0.03  
Forest_Green      9   17   +2       4.36    85.40     1.39    71.53     9.84     7.95     6.78    22.65    52.63    29.55P    0.27R    0.10  
Newport_County    9   16   +3       3.94    82.93     3.19    67.57     9.69     4.86     3.12    12.48    36.77    17.69P    0.60R    0.19  
Crawley_Town      9   15   +3       3.11    77.14     3.73    60.88     9.72    -3.94     0.75     3.92    15.94     6.19P    3.38R    1.19  
Cambridge_Utd     9   14   +4       3.26    79.19     6.08    62.16     9.76     0.88     0.94     5.00    19.43     7.91P    2.73R    0.88  
Bradford          9   14   +3      -0.49    45.47    -0.14    75.51    10.43    19.00    15.44    38.51    68.23    47.72P    0.12R    0.03  
Northampton       9   13   +2       0.34    53.78     1.47    68.23    10.11     8.85     4.02    15.33    40.44    21.62P    0.77R    0.25  
Grimsby           9   12   +3       0.66    57.29     4.24    58.83     9.80    -2.20     0.53     2.76    12.10     4.70P    5.19R    1.85  
Plymouth          9   12   +3      -2.88    25.35    -0.86    73.90    10.68    19.92    12.59    33.76    62.90    43.00P    0.29R    0.08  
Colchester        9   12   +2      -1.02    40.82     0.95    69.05     9.84    11.53     4.42    16.53    43.82    24.01P    0.54R    0.13  
Macclesfield      9   12   +0       2.00    69.79     3.40    50.91     9.36   -16.94     0.04     0.36     2.46     0.71P   20.17R    9.05  
Port_Vale         9   12   -3       1.69    67.47    -0.45    56.35     9.54   -11.14     0.13     1.24     7.02     2.34P    8.59R    3.42  
Salford_City      9   11   -1       0.96    60.63     2.62    47.30     9.64   -23.00     0.03     0.18     1.29     0.38P   34.45R   18.31  
Carlisle          9   11   -4      -1.23    39.53    -3.81    61.88    10.02    -3.86     0.96     5.03    18.93     8.09P    3.27R    1.15  
Mansfield         9    9   -3      -5.49     9.19    -6.20    65.49     9.86     5.60     2.24     9.72    30.51    15.94P    1.09R    0.32  
Leyton_Orient     9    9   -5      -0.87    43.11    -1.31    47.18     9.81   -23.96     0.02     0.18     1.34     0.37P   35.19R   19.48  
Walsall           9    9   -5      -3.50    20.29    -5.42    64.17    10.25     1.93     1.82     7.94    26.27    12.95P    2.13R    0.75  
Oldham            9    7   -5      -4.82    12.39    -4.25    61.59    10.12     0.84     0.95     4.87    18.82     8.50P    3.75R    1.40  
Morecambe         9    6   -8      -3.78    17.32    -4.20    45.30     9.42   -24.85     0.01     0.07     0.63     0.18P   42.34R   24.75  
Scunthorpe        9    5   -7      -8.65     1.98    -8.96    58.43    10.60    -3.05     0.66     3.27    13.21     6.09P    7.42R    3.14  
Stevenage         9    3   -8      -8.57     1.16    -6.98    49.00     9.69   -14.47     0.03     0.21     1.85     0.59P   26.44R   13.21  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 September 2019, Barnet 2 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking             11   24  +10       8.21    95.23     8.97    72.95    10.54    11.47    10.08    44.92    17.16P    1.51R    0.05  
Bromley            11   23   +7       5.58    87.69     3.48    73.64     9.86    10.71     9.81    47.60    17.54P    0.86R    0.02  
Halifax            11   22   +8       7.10    93.36     8.12    72.92     9.50    12.55     7.60    44.81    15.24P    0.87R    0.03  
Yeovil             11   19   +5       0.04    49.72    -0.75    81.02    10.07    26.13    30.59    75.87    45.53P    0.18R    0.00  
Barnet             10   19   +5       3.79    80.31     2.76    74.42     9.82    14.08    10.63    51.14    20.70P    0.69R    0.02  
Dag_&_Red          11   18   +1       2.86    72.95     0.93    67.25     9.62     2.84     2.48    23.47     6.98P    4.05R    0.25  
Maidenhead         11   17   +6       2.89    73.74     7.43    60.68     9.52    -0.57     0.63     8.83     2.09P   13.21R    0.94  
Dover_Athletic     11   17   +1       1.12    59.74    -0.24    65.30     9.79     1.32     1.88    18.50     5.48P    6.37R    0.39  
Stockport          11   17   +1       3.82    79.13     4.03    58.37    10.20    -9.06     0.46     6.91     1.61P   21.80R    2.40  
Torquay            11   15   -1       2.46    70.16     3.22    55.00    10.48   -14.18     0.26     4.12     0.97P   33.52R    5.81  
Hartlepool         11   15   -2       0.37    53.78    -1.24    59.45     9.56    -7.69     0.40     6.81     1.61P   16.78R    1.57  
Solihull_Moors     10   14   +3      -2.00    33.00    -0.46    69.43    10.06    12.09     4.92    32.98    12.35P    2.72R    0.12  
Notts_County       11   14   +3      -5.03    14.64    -3.05    75.79    10.10    23.95    14.61    58.30    30.26P    0.69R    0.03  
Barrow             11   13   -1      -1.42    38.99    -0.06    59.53     9.62    -3.24     0.41     7.13     1.74P   16.39R    1.59  
Eastleigh          11   13   -2      -0.74    44.66     0.05    59.88     9.62    -3.71     0.42     7.54     1.92P   15.82R    1.51  
Boreham_Wood       11   12   +1      -3.07    26.24     1.00    57.67     9.51    -2.36     0.27     5.12     1.34P   20.74R    2.06  
Sutton_United      11   12   -2      -2.39    31.08    -1.02    57.95     9.66    -5.06     0.33     5.47     1.48P   20.72R    2.18  
Harrogate_Town     11   12   -3      -3.71    22.51    -3.84    60.51     9.96    -2.55     0.68     9.20     2.75P   14.86R    1.40  
Wrexham            10   11   -2      -3.72    20.50    -3.54    64.27     9.85     3.97     1.56    16.36     5.38P    7.45R    0.57  
Aldershot          11   11   -5      -1.36    39.51    -1.14    50.67     9.17   -16.91     0.02     0.78     0.15P   48.48R    9.32  
AFC_Fylde          10   10   -6      -5.49    11.09    -8.71    64.29    10.09     1.33     1.67    17.07     5.79P    8.08R    0.57  
Chesterfield       11    8   -5      -7.57     5.13    -5.73    56.52     9.67    -4.38     0.20     4.00     1.16P   24.80R    3.27  
Chorley            11    8  -13      -1.31    40.75    -3.27    38.28     9.35   -41.89     0.00     0.03     0.00P   89.11R   61.34  
Ebbsfleet_United   11    7   -9      -6.83     6.66    -6.95    55.20     9.78    -8.81     0.12     3.04     0.77P   30.28R    4.57