Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 18 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 September 2019, Aston_Villa 0 0 West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         5   15  +11       3.18    88.88     2.00    87.56     8.17    59.18    47.87    85.31    95.54    98.59    99.89     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          5   10  +10      -2.02    21.02     0.29    87.15     7.60    69.58    46.97    86.88    96.05    98.81    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         5    8   +5      -1.05    34.49     1.51    72.22     8.93    35.75     3.15    14.83    48.98    70.92    91.96     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           5    8   +4      -0.96    37.69     0.87    64.63     9.08    21.48     0.56     3.60    16.60    36.04    72.55     0.08R    0.01  
Leicester         5    8   +2       1.06    64.77     1.93    54.50     9.15     2.60     0.02     0.31     2.29     7.05    27.39     1.67R    0.24  
Chelsea           5    8   +0      -0.97    37.37    -3.37    65.03     9.16    18.26     0.66     4.08    17.76    37.38    72.63     0.06R    0.00  
Arsenal           5    8   +0       0.34    54.73    -1.05    65.61     9.41    20.02     0.76     4.72    20.00    40.54    74.18     0.12R    0.01  
West_Ham          5    8   -1       1.41    68.83    -0.29    48.33     9.06   -11.03     0.00     0.06     0.55     2.02    10.41     7.15R    1.26  
Bournemouth       5    7   -1       1.03    65.25     1.00    45.55     9.03   -15.76     0.00     0.02     0.24     1.03     6.16    12.66R    2.81  
Southampton       5    7   -1       1.62    71.96     1.37    44.84     8.84   -14.76     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.80     5.04    13.69R    3.12  
Everton           5    7   -2      -0.73    41.25    -3.32    50.15     8.99    -6.85     0.01     0.11     0.90     2.92    13.99     4.58R    0.75  
Crystal_Palace    5    7   -3       1.01    64.81    -1.50    47.51     8.92   -11.84     0.00     0.04     0.38     1.44     8.40     8.16R    1.60  
Norwich           5    6   -3       2.19    78.74     3.94    41.61     9.61   -23.45     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.59     3.56    26.36R    8.51  
Burnley           5    5   -1      -0.12    51.08     1.98    42.14     8.78   -15.44     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.42     2.92    20.67R    5.40  
Sheff_Utd         5    5   -1      -0.48    46.22     1.34    38.14     8.92   -22.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12     1.17    37.29R   13.56  
Brighton          5    5   -3      -0.37    47.11     0.06    37.06     8.36   -24.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.75    41.27R   14.64  
Aston_Villa       5    4   -2      -1.14    37.16     1.06    35.48     8.95   -27.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.71    49.28R   22.02  
Newcastle         5    4   -4      -1.15    36.15    -0.98    44.70     8.77   -11.30     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.69     4.73    13.05R    2.88  
Wolverhampton     5    3   -4      -2.78    17.47    -2.37    42.74     8.90   -14.60     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.42     3.10    19.33R    5.26  
Watford           5    2   -6      -3.93     8.96    -4.45    36.45     8.73   -26.99     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.61    44.58R   17.94  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 September 2019, Barnsley 0 2 Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     7   16   +9       4.48    88.76     6.18    81.48    10.43    26.96    26.06    43.47    79.02    53.73P    0.05R    0.00  
Swansea          7   16   +7       5.01    91.50     4.89    77.80    10.50    19.34    15.26    29.30    67.13    39.15P    0.16R    0.01  
Charlton         7   14   +5       4.26    87.28     4.71    64.09    10.87     0.19     1.72     4.30    20.55     7.53P    4.73R    0.73  
Bristol_City     7   14   +4       3.87    85.18     3.16    72.40    10.77    11.25     7.05    15.30    47.00    22.72P    0.72R    0.09  
Preston          7   13   +6       2.36    73.57     4.46    70.83    10.76    12.38     5.45    12.18    42.26    19.46P    1.20R    0.14  
West_Brom        7   13   +3       1.26    62.83    -0.28    79.30    10.62    22.58    20.04    35.54    72.13    46.16P    0.12R    0.02  
QPR              7   13   +1       3.97    86.00     2.01    59.19    10.36   -10.90     0.49     1.34     9.38     2.73P   10.42R    2.05  
Birmingham       7   13   -1       4.30    88.41     0.28    62.72    10.33    -6.30     1.00     2.63    15.51     5.07P    5.59R    0.92  
Nott'm_Forest    7   12   +4       3.00    79.41     4.88    69.28    10.51     9.73     3.69     8.97    35.93    15.18P    1.54R    0.21  
Sheff_Wed        7   12   +4       1.27    63.29     2.29    66.23    10.46     5.14     2.29     5.62    25.89    10.27P    2.60R    0.38  
Fulham           7   11   +5      -0.33    46.71     2.45    71.78    11.24    15.97     7.28    15.66    46.13    24.29P    1.24R    0.15  
Blackburn        7   10   +0       0.89    60.36     0.88    62.21    10.57    -1.89     0.97     2.64    15.39     5.33P    6.44R    1.14  
Middlesbrough    7    9   +0      -1.98    29.38    -1.99    66.73    10.06     6.68     2.09     5.24    26.71    11.12P    2.06R    0.28  
Cardiff          7    9   -2      -1.35    36.19    -3.16    64.64    11.06     1.37     1.93     4.96    22.37     9.49P    4.79R    0.81  
Millwall         7    9   -4       1.37    66.40    -1.20    55.82     9.95   -12.95     0.13     0.43     4.51     1.15P   16.93R    3.83  
Luton            7    7   -1      -1.87    31.94     0.28    56.88    11.39    -7.69     0.50     1.46     8.58     3.03P   17.26R    4.60  
Reading          7    7   -1      -0.95    40.99     1.47    52.62    10.17   -12.74     0.08     0.23     2.84     0.71P   25.95R    7.46  
Brentford        7    7   -1      -2.76    22.83    -1.31    65.36    10.60     6.22     1.86     4.85    23.69     9.83P    3.53R    0.57  
Derby            7    7   -3      -3.25    19.31    -3.97    65.47    10.49     4.46     1.73     4.58    23.59     9.67P    3.22R    0.50  
Hull             7    6   -3      -3.43    17.78    -2.60    56.00    10.68    -9.11     0.24     0.79     6.16     1.93P   17.64R    4.75  
Wigan            7    5   -7      -2.99    20.56    -4.68    51.19    10.07   -17.72     0.05     0.20     2.00     0.53P   31.16R    9.35  
Barnsley         7    5   -7      -3.25    19.18    -5.09    50.08    10.61   -19.31     0.08     0.24     2.10     0.63P   36.16R   12.88  
Huddersfield     7    1   -8      -6.81     1.47    -5.49    43.00    10.14   -24.06     0.00     0.01     0.32     0.08P   62.35R   32.42  
Stoke            7    1  -10      -7.29     1.08    -8.17    47.74    10.05   -19.61     0.01     0.05     0.82     0.20P   44.13R   16.72  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 September 2019, Bolton 0 0 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Coventry              9   19   +6       5.26    89.82     3.94    68.42     9.49     8.11     2.77     7.27    37.24    13.15P    0.57R    0.00  
Ipswich               8   18  +11       4.17    85.58     6.74    82.21    10.04    34.07    30.91    51.00    85.76    61.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Wycombe               9   16   +4       2.79    74.93     2.70    58.81     9.37    -5.02     0.29     0.94     9.77     2.38P    6.14R    0.04  
Sunderland            8   15   +3       1.02    59.42    -1.78    81.04     9.59    30.05    25.59    45.55    84.16    57.68P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool             9   15   +2       2.18    70.12     1.29    65.11     9.48     5.09     1.32     3.93    25.35     8.46P    1.48R    0.01  
Peterborough          8   14  +12       0.03    49.74     7.11    76.36     9.92    33.44    13.59    28.34    70.92    40.66P    0.09R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        8   14   +3       1.60    66.26     0.96    67.49     9.92     9.21     2.78     7.07    34.74    13.27P    1.05R    0.01  
Lincoln_City          9   13   +5       0.56    55.78     4.94    60.10     9.92     3.29     0.52     1.63    13.75     4.19P    5.33R    0.08  
Burton_Albion         8   12   +3       0.38    54.10     2.10    69.81     9.80    15.98     4.00    10.18    44.32    18.72P    0.57R    0.00  
Doncaster             7   12   +2       0.81    58.19    -0.37    69.69    10.20    12.73     4.30    10.54    43.46    18.52P    0.74R    0.00  
MK_Dons               8   12   -1       1.86    68.25     0.39    55.44    10.21   -11.67     0.19     0.63     6.66     1.62P   14.34R    0.31  
Bristol_Rovers        9   12   -1      -0.65    44.06    -1.56    57.70     9.42    -4.82     0.21     0.78     7.93     2.16P    7.68R    0.12  
Shrewsbury            8   12   -1       0.78    58.30    -1.46    60.40     9.70    -2.64     0.49     1.55    13.26     3.86P    4.67R    0.06  
Rotherham             7   11   +4      -0.36    46.47     1.05    71.51    10.89    19.36     7.31    16.08    51.76    25.40P    0.73R    0.01  
Gillingham            8   10   +5      -1.71    33.51     3.90    59.87    10.02     4.88     0.57     1.75    13.51     4.28P    5.79R    0.07  
Rochdale              8   10   -3       1.05    61.76     0.63    52.03     9.71   -16.33     0.05     0.20     2.94     0.61P   21.73R    0.61  
Oxford_Utd            9    9   -2      -2.74    25.89    -0.82    57.05     9.80    -2.66     0.19     0.68     7.70     2.17P    9.59R    0.14  
Portsmouth            6    6   +0      -3.47    14.67    -1.97    69.67    10.57    18.45     4.90    11.79    45.01    21.27P    0.96R    0.01  
Tranmere              8    6   -3      -2.30    27.48     1.98    42.66     9.70   -24.90     0.01     0.01     0.37     0.04P   58.15R    4.32  
Accrington_Stanley    8    6   -6      -2.73    24.49    -2.38    47.57     9.60   -20.00     0.01     0.06     1.09     0.24P   37.36R    1.81  
AFC_Wimbledon         9    3   -7      -6.32     3.82    -2.19    42.65     9.14   -19.99     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P   57.46R    4.00  
Southend              8    1  -14      -7.57     1.22    -9.77    40.37     9.58   -33.48     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   67.37R    7.94  
Bolton                7  -10  -22      -3.73    12.57   -15.44    22.57     9.43   -53.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.16R   80.44  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 September 2019, Carlisle 0 0 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            9   21   +8       5.76    92.01     3.80    79.54     9.99    19.59    25.10    52.93    80.48    60.32P    0.03R    0.00  
Crewe             9   18   +2       5.77    91.23     2.15    70.06    10.08     3.97     5.33    18.79    46.11    24.61P    0.49R    0.12  
Cheltenham        9   17   +8       3.62    80.10     6.46    67.69    10.04     7.87     3.82    14.32    38.31    19.17P    0.60R    0.16  
Swindon           9   17   +6       2.75    74.10     3.13    73.40    10.09    14.56    10.10    29.86    60.77    37.40P    0.14R    0.03  
Forest_Green      9   17   +2       4.31    85.06     1.35    71.67     9.79     8.10     6.84    22.91    52.93    29.90P    0.25R    0.07  
Newport_County    9   16   +3       3.85    82.58     3.07    67.80     9.71     5.14     3.07    12.64    37.57    18.21P    0.70R    0.23  
Crawley_Town      9   15   +3       3.10    77.14     3.68    61.04     9.75    -3.67     0.73     3.97    16.33     6.25P    3.22R    1.08  
Cambridge_Utd     9   14   +4       3.35    79.96     6.21    62.04     9.75     0.71     0.95     4.94    18.96     7.65P    2.67R    0.89  
Bradford          9   14   +3      -0.57    44.79    -0.30    75.91    10.46    19.55    16.36    40.04    69.43    48.87P    0.10R    0.02  
Northampton       9   13   +2       0.45    54.81     1.65    68.01     9.97     8.45     3.65    14.32    39.37    20.38P    0.72R    0.20  
Grimsby           9   12   +3       0.67    57.39     4.26    58.73     9.69    -2.29     0.47     2.46    11.49     4.35P    4.98R    1.72  
Plymouth          9   12   +3      -2.82    25.75    -0.76    73.66    10.62    19.54    12.14    32.76    61.91    41.77P    0.26R    0.07  
Colchester        9   12   +2      -1.01    40.80     0.95    69.02     9.88    11.43     4.46    16.63    43.53    24.11P    0.48R    0.14  
Macclesfield      9   12   +0       1.98    69.98     3.39    50.94     9.29   -16.89     0.03     0.32     2.29     0.61P   19.83R    8.90  
Port_Vale         9   12   -3       1.72    67.67    -0.41    56.03     9.52   -11.63     0.14     1.10     6.58     2.13P    8.94R    3.46  
Salford_City      9   11   -1       0.96    60.51     2.60    47.21     9.65   -23.02     0.04     0.20     1.27     0.37P   34.76R   18.82  
Carlisle          9   11   -4      -1.22    39.48    -3.80    61.96    10.15    -3.73     1.08     5.23    19.51     8.49P    3.25R    1.18  
Mansfield         9    9   -3      -5.54     8.99    -6.25    65.63     9.91     5.84     2.16     9.83    30.76    16.13P    1.16R    0.31  
Leyton_Orient     9    9   -5      -0.82    43.69    -1.26    46.98     9.85   -24.17     0.02     0.18     1.31     0.38P   36.04R   20.10  
Walsall           9    9   -5      -3.55    20.10    -5.50    64.42    10.26     2.30     1.94     8.26    26.74    13.51P    2.16R    0.73  
Oldham            9    7   -5      -4.87    12.01    -4.28    61.48    10.06     0.78     0.88     4.70    18.57     8.27P    3.58R    1.32  
Morecambe         9    6   -8      -3.80    17.08    -4.21    45.41     9.41   -24.81     0.01     0.05     0.59     0.15P   41.88R   24.08  
Scunthorpe        9    5   -7      -8.66     1.94    -8.96    58.52    10.69    -2.97     0.67     3.39    13.53     6.43P    7.34R    3.13  
Stevenage         9    3   -8      -8.55     1.18    -6.96    48.90     9.62   -14.64     0.01     0.20     1.64     0.53P   26.44R   13.22  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 September 2019, Barnet 2 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking             11   24  +10       8.36    95.50     9.21    72.67    10.59    10.97     9.79    44.26    16.57P    1.71R    0.11  
Bromley            11   23   +7       5.61    87.91     3.51    73.64     9.97    10.73     9.97    47.76    18.00P    0.96R    0.05  
Halifax            11   22   +8       7.09    93.47     8.09    72.94     9.55    12.70     7.78    44.87    15.48P    0.90R    0.03  
Yeovil             11   19   +5       0.02    49.64    -0.79    81.12    10.07    26.24    30.87    76.32    45.88P    0.13R    0.01  
Barnet             10   19   +5       3.95    81.16     2.97    74.04     9.82    13.51    10.01    49.48    19.99P    0.75R    0.02  
Dag_&_Red          11   18   +1       2.89    73.04     0.98    67.20     9.73     2.75     2.50    23.65     6.91P    4.22R    0.26  
Maidenhead         11   17   +6       2.84    73.43     7.39    60.77     9.57    -0.48     0.61     9.20     2.19P   13.08R    1.06  
Dover_Athletic     11   17   +1       1.04    59.00    -0.34    65.32     9.73     1.30     1.84    18.59     5.58P    5.99R    0.34  
Stockport          11   17   +1       3.83    79.02     4.03    58.51    10.46    -8.92     0.56     7.67     1.83P   21.89R    2.78  
Torquay            11   15   -1       2.48    70.48     3.24    54.77    10.35   -14.53     0.26     3.93     0.94P   33.92R    5.81  
Hartlepool         11   15   -2       0.41    54.08    -1.22    59.35     9.63    -7.88     0.46     6.67     1.65P   17.52R    1.67  
Solihull_Moors     10   14   +3      -1.93    33.41    -0.37    69.51    10.01    12.23     4.78    33.32    12.40P    2.74R    0.16  
Notts_County       11   14   +3      -5.07    14.48    -3.13    75.74    10.27    23.94    15.04    58.09    30.18P    0.70R    0.03  
Barrow             11   13   -1      -1.57    37.77    -0.24    59.99     9.65    -2.58     0.51     7.97     2.07P   15.24R    1.49  
Eastleigh          11   13   -2      -0.78    44.41     0.03    59.95     9.72    -3.59     0.48     7.82     1.96P   15.78R    1.60  
Boreham_Wood       11   12   +1      -2.99    27.00     1.12    57.44     9.57    -2.67     0.26     5.06     1.26P   21.47R    2.46  
Sutton_United      11   12   -2      -2.38    31.23    -1.02    57.75     9.68    -5.42     0.25     5.32     1.28P   21.55R    2.36  
Harrogate_Town     11   12   -3      -3.87    21.04    -4.11    60.93     9.83    -1.91     0.69     9.54     2.79P   13.61R    1.30  
Wrexham            10   11   -2      -3.71    20.37    -3.53    64.25     9.75     3.92     1.49    16.21     5.32P    7.37R    0.54  
Aldershot          11   11   -5      -1.39    39.34    -1.19    50.77     9.20   -16.73     0.03     0.87     0.18P   48.26R    9.24  
AFC_Fylde          10   10   -6      -5.34    11.90    -8.49    63.98    10.10     0.81     1.50    16.13     5.55P    8.67R    0.66  
Chesterfield       11    8   -5      -7.59     5.16    -5.79    56.53     9.71    -4.27     0.21     4.19     1.19P   24.91R    3.37  
Chorley            11    8  -13      -1.42    40.23    -3.42    38.61     9.45   -41.39     0.00     0.06     0.01P   88.54R   60.17  
Ebbsfleet_United   11    7   -9      -6.84     6.64    -6.97    55.26     9.78    -8.72     0.11     3.02     0.79P   30.08R    4.50