Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 16 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 September 2019, Aston_Villa 0 0 West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         5   15  +11       3.19    89.11     2.01    87.30     8.16    58.56    47.12    85.41    95.40    98.58    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          5   10  +10      -2.05    20.66     0.29    87.08     7.58    69.11    47.49    86.72    96.18    98.82    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         5    8   +5      -1.04    34.75     1.50    72.14     8.94    35.64     3.28    14.97    48.99    70.54    91.77     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           5    8   +4      -0.99    37.31     0.85    64.71     8.98    21.55     0.61     3.73    16.89    36.42    72.64     0.07R    0.00  
Leicester         5    8   +2       1.10    65.29     1.98    54.48     9.18     2.68     0.03     0.30     2.32     7.25    27.37     1.77R    0.30  
Chelsea           5    8   +0      -0.95    37.66    -3.35    64.94     9.10    18.18     0.64     3.94    17.63    37.08    72.73     0.11R    0.01  
Arsenal           5    8   +0       0.35    54.96    -1.00    65.53     9.36    19.90     0.80     4.66    19.78    40.45    73.99     0.10R    0.01  
West_Ham          5    8   -1       1.42    69.00    -0.28    48.16     9.02   -11.38     0.00     0.06     0.60     2.02    10.23     7.48R    1.35  
Bournemouth       5    7   -1       1.06    65.66     1.05    45.53     9.12   -15.76     0.00     0.02     0.30     1.19     6.52    13.14R    3.13  
Southampton       5    7   -1       1.60    72.00     1.33    44.83     8.84   -14.68     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.80     5.12    13.50R    3.19  
Everton           5    7   -2      -0.75    40.88    -3.34    50.20     9.04    -6.66     0.01     0.10     0.87     3.09    14.12     4.70R    0.79  
Crystal_Palace    5    7   -3       1.04    65.43    -1.43    47.58     8.87   -11.71     0.00     0.02     0.31     1.38     8.41     8.18R    1.54  
Norwich           5    6   -3       2.22    79.47     4.03    41.27     9.61   -24.16     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.51     3.27    27.69R    9.37  
Burnley           5    5   -1      -0.13    51.03     1.96    42.23     8.78   -15.23     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.39     2.94    20.58R    5.57  
Sheff_Utd         5    5   -1      -0.56    44.91     1.19    38.57     8.93   -21.97     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.20     1.32    35.38R   12.83  
Brighton          5    5   -3      -0.36    47.16     0.03    37.04     8.28   -24.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.61    41.61R   14.73  
Aston_Villa       5    4   -2      -1.16    37.01     1.00    35.65     8.92   -27.05     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.72    48.75R   21.54  
Newcastle         5    4   -4      -1.13    36.53    -0.97    44.73     8.75   -11.26     0.00     0.02     0.15     0.67     4.74    13.10R    2.93  
Wolverhampton     5    3   -4      -2.77    17.26    -2.37    42.76     8.88   -14.50     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.40     3.02    19.36R    5.21  
Watford           5    2   -6      -3.93     8.92    -4.49    36.52     8.66   -26.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.69    44.47R   17.50  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 September 2019, Barnsley 0 2 Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     7   16   +9       4.46    88.71     6.16    81.80    10.58    27.44    27.23    44.53    79.46    54.48P    0.03R    0.00  
Swansea          7   16   +7       5.00    91.35     4.89    77.92    10.51    19.59    15.39    29.66    67.49    39.17P    0.14R    0.01  
Charlton         7   14   +5       4.19    86.87     4.64    64.29    10.96     0.49     1.82     4.46    21.07     8.08P    4.85R    0.85  
Bristol_City     7   14   +4       3.84    84.93     3.13    72.35    10.78    11.21     6.91    15.00    46.96    22.51P    0.86R    0.09  
Preston          7   13   +6       2.31    73.25     4.39    71.06    10.73    12.74     5.64    12.65    42.59    19.88P    0.94R    0.13  
West_Brom        7   13   +3       1.23    62.60    -0.33    79.28    10.59    22.62    19.63    35.08    72.10    46.05P    0.11R    0.01  
QPR              7   13   +1       4.00    86.15     2.04    59.11    10.42   -11.08     0.46     1.39     9.27     2.78P   10.91R    2.10  
Birmingham       7   13   -1       4.37    88.66     0.36    62.48    10.34    -6.62     0.89     2.46    15.04     4.78P    5.92R    1.02  
Nott'm_Forest    7   12   +4       2.96    79.19     4.80    69.63    10.50    10.26     3.72     9.35    37.05    15.71P    1.28R    0.17  
Sheff_Wed        7   12   +4       1.27    63.13     2.30    65.89    10.40     4.71     1.93     5.06    24.80     9.48P    2.86R    0.38  
Fulham           7   11   +5      -0.34    46.45     2.44    71.77    11.23    15.97     7.29    15.40    46.01    23.95P    1.07R    0.15  
Blackburn        7   10   +0       0.92    60.94     0.91    62.10    10.53    -2.07     0.88     2.46    15.08     4.98P    6.68R    1.20  
Middlesbrough    7    9   +0      -2.01    29.28    -2.04    66.83    10.14     6.82     1.95     5.48    26.83    11.52P    2.02R    0.25  
Cardiff          7    9   -2      -1.34    36.57    -3.12    64.50    10.93     1.12     1.76     4.58    21.76     9.18P    4.57R    0.80  
Millwall         7    9   -4       1.45    67.34    -1.04    55.56     9.96   -13.48     0.11     0.42     4.40     1.21P   17.38R    4.14  
Luton            7    7   -1      -1.86    31.90     0.25    56.96    11.43    -7.55     0.47     1.40     8.84     2.97P   16.66R    4.55  
Reading          7    7   -1      -0.95    40.91     1.47    52.75    10.19   -12.54     0.08     0.27     2.94     0.80P   25.72R    7.01  
Brentford        7    7   -1      -2.75    22.86    -1.28    65.20    10.57     5.99     1.78     4.66    23.14     9.54P    3.59R    0.62  
Derby            7    7   -3      -3.23    19.32    -3.95    65.33    10.52     4.24     1.66     4.49    23.46     9.50P    3.35R    0.56  
Hull             7    6   -3      -3.46    17.43    -2.65    56.09    10.75    -9.00     0.28     0.77     6.33     1.97P   17.50R    4.63  
Wigan            7    5   -7      -2.97    20.67    -4.64    51.29    10.02   -17.57     0.04     0.13     1.97     0.47P   30.72R    8.86  
Barnsley         7    5   -7      -3.28    19.01    -5.16    50.29    10.74   -19.01     0.06     0.22     2.22     0.69P   35.48R   12.32  
Huddersfield     7    1   -8      -6.76     1.59    -5.39    42.75    10.15   -24.54     0.00     0.02     0.29     0.06P   63.41R   33.31  
Stoke            7    1  -10      -7.29     1.08    -8.16    47.69    10.08   -19.75     0.01     0.05     0.89     0.25P   43.95R   16.82  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Coventry              8   16   +5       4.20    86.05     3.81    67.10     9.74     7.49     2.00     5.57    32.26    10.88P    1.09R    0.00  
Ipswich               7   15  +10       2.91    78.17     6.27    80.60    10.50    33.52    24.25    42.48    81.01    54.10P    0.05R    0.00  
Wycombe               8   15   +4       3.51    81.71     3.23    60.12     9.79    -3.75     0.45     1.47    12.67     3.37P    5.77R    0.05  
Fleetwood_Town        8   14   +3       1.62    66.34     0.96    67.70     9.94     9.53     2.45     6.73    34.76    12.99P    1.05R    0.01  
Sunderland            7   14   +3       1.79    68.83    -1.18    82.65     9.90    32.36    30.15    50.57    86.49    62.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough          7   13  +12       0.84    58.27     7.78    77.60    10.17    35.00    15.56    31.42    73.73    43.41P    0.07R    0.00  
Lincoln_City          8   12   +5       0.88    59.30     4.92    60.49    10.22     3.13     0.71     2.04    14.69     4.67P    5.65R    0.08  
Doncaster             6   12   +3       2.34    74.42     0.82    72.19    10.50    15.59     6.54    15.17    52.52    24.12P    0.54R    0.00  
Blackpool             8   12   +1       0.47    55.00     0.16    62.10     9.75     1.85     0.69     2.10    17.02     5.29P    3.59R    0.04  
MK_Dons               7   12   +0       2.70    76.34     0.64    57.89    10.50    -9.25     0.41     1.22    10.12     2.77P   10.37R    0.23  
Burton_Albion         7   11   +3       0.48    55.63     1.65    69.19    10.03    14.43     3.40     8.82    41.07    16.75P    0.84R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers        8   11   -1      -0.21    48.63    -1.46    58.52     9.67    -4.17     0.25     0.88     9.29     2.57P    7.43R    0.09  
Rotherham             6   10   +4      -0.33    45.78     0.39    70.51    11.19    16.98     6.23    13.92    47.18    22.64P    1.25R    0.01  
Gillingham            7    9   +5      -1.54    33.63     3.57    59.68    10.19     3.86     0.51     1.66    12.94     4.07P    6.98R    0.08  
Shrewsbury            7    9   -2      -0.23    48.26    -1.52    59.20     9.82    -2.87     0.32     1.11    10.93     3.05P    6.72R    0.09  
Rochdale              7    9   -3       1.53    67.29     0.84    52.25     9.89   -16.91     0.07     0.24     3.15     0.60P   22.26R    0.67  
Oxford_Utd            8    8   -2      -2.24    28.83    -0.57    58.16    10.03    -1.68     0.28     0.92     9.77     2.64P    8.90R    0.14  
Portsmouth            5    5   +0      -2.83    17.45    -1.57    70.83    10.72    19.76     5.72    13.57    48.43    23.68P    0.82R    0.01  
Tranmere              7    5   -3      -2.29    26.43     1.36    42.34    10.01   -26.25     0.01     0.02     0.38     0.07P   59.93R    5.29  
Accrington_Stanley    7    5   -6      -2.66    23.39    -2.80    47.55     9.86   -20.98     0.01     0.07     1.11     0.24P   38.98R    2.03  
AFC_Wimbledon         8    3   -6      -5.51     5.33    -1.97    43.57     9.30   -19.58     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.05P   54.61R    3.70  
Southend              7    1  -13      -6.80     1.81    -9.85    41.33     9.68   -32.85     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P   65.01R    6.75  
Bolton                6  -11  -22      -3.54    11.13   -15.50    22.39     9.74   -55.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.05R   80.74  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2019, Crawley_Town 1 0 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            8   18   +6       4.96    89.80     2.96    77.83    10.04    17.50    18.04    44.82    75.45    52.87P    0.04R    0.00  
Swindon           8   17   +9       3.75    83.03     5.57    77.06    10.28    20.94    17.35    43.12    73.14    50.81P    0.07R    0.03  
Forest_Green      8   16   +2       4.63    88.08     1.25    71.82    10.08     7.80     6.90    22.99    53.28    29.97P    0.32R    0.08  
Newport_County    8   15   +3       4.41    87.32     3.34    68.50     9.99     5.64     3.56    14.09    40.60    19.81P    0.67R    0.22  
Crewe             8   15   +1       4.42    86.71     1.53    68.05    10.29     2.55     3.66    14.10    39.00    19.29P    0.91R    0.29  
Cheltenham        8   14   +7       2.07    69.56     5.57    65.19    10.08     5.71     2.08     9.21    29.73    13.58P    1.39R    0.42  
Bradford          8   14   +4       0.83    58.04     0.79    77.47    10.64    20.78    19.19    44.65    73.86    53.55P    0.07R    0.02  
Crawley_Town      8   14   +3       3.38    80.54     3.50    60.89     9.93    -4.46     0.78     3.92    16.39     6.20P    3.80R    1.29  
Grimsby           8   12   +4       1.91    69.50     5.11    61.15    10.01     0.17     0.84     4.32    17.46     7.05P    3.55R    1.18  
Port_Vale         8   12   -1       2.27    73.18     0.49    57.81     9.62    -8.99     0.30     1.79     9.37     3.14P    6.56R    2.45  
Plymouth          8   11   +3      -2.33    28.18    -0.60    74.36    10.92    20.06    12.87    34.52    63.78    43.54P    0.27R    0.07  
Cambridge_Utd     8   11   +0       1.86    69.91     2.38    57.07     9.73    -7.99     0.25     1.54     8.58     2.85P    7.93R    3.03  
Macclesfield      8   11   +0       2.18    73.09     3.22    51.03     9.55   -17.33     0.04     0.35     2.60     0.70P   20.71R    9.55  
Northampton       8   10   +1      -1.00    40.59     0.90    66.20    10.31     7.21     2.58    11.03    33.68    16.59P    1.40R    0.44  
Carlisle          8   10   -4      -0.89    41.95    -3.82    62.85    10.33    -3.01     1.27     5.90    22.49     9.68P    2.99R    1.01  
Mansfield         8    9   +1      -4.35    12.94    -2.57    70.27    10.10    14.53     5.51    19.93    49.34    29.04P    0.39R    0.11  
Colchester        8    9   -1      -2.34    27.89    -1.62    64.93    10.03     5.05     1.70     8.45    28.70    13.60P    1.62R    0.54  
Leyton_Orient     8    9   -4       0.22    53.90    -0.69    48.77    10.06   -22.59     0.04     0.26     2.04     0.56P   30.14R   15.69  
Salford_City      8    8   -2      -0.60    45.68     1.86    44.74     9.96   -25.97     0.01     0.11     0.85     0.24P   45.87R   28.14  
Oldham            8    6   -5      -4.64    11.48    -4.56    61.21    10.22    -0.16     0.88     4.23    18.02     7.77P    4.11R    1.60  
Walsall           8    6   -6      -4.84    10.78    -5.96    62.44    10.59     0.80     1.22     6.07    22.07    10.61P    3.59R    1.42  
Morecambe         8    6   -7      -2.74    23.86    -3.57    46.93     9.70   -23.59     0.01     0.13     1.08     0.30P   36.13R   19.71  
Scunthorpe        8    4   -7      -8.18     1.70    -8.82    59.46    10.85    -1.92     0.86     4.09    15.60     7.29P    6.60R    2.79  
Stevenage         8    3   -7      -7.42     1.97    -6.26    50.95     9.91   -12.76     0.06     0.39     2.88     0.96P   20.86R    9.93  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2019, Barnet 1 0 Maidenhead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking             11   24  +10       8.20    95.12     8.98    73.16    10.64    11.77    10.72    46.56    18.14P    1.54R    0.05  
Bromley            11   23   +7       5.63    87.81     3.55    73.52     9.87    10.55     9.95    47.38    17.98P    0.95R    0.04  
Halifax            11   22   +8       7.11    93.56     8.11    72.92     9.54    12.68     7.88    45.59    15.67P    0.88R    0.03  
Yeovil             11   19   +5       0.04    49.51    -0.76    80.94    10.03    26.04    30.78    76.14    45.91P    0.20R    0.01  
Dag_&_Red          11   18   +1       2.89    73.13     0.98    67.22     9.70     2.78     2.64    24.15     7.14P    4.39R    0.30  
Maidenhead         11   17   +6       2.86    73.30     7.42    60.54     9.52    -0.76     0.57     8.83     2.06P   13.75R    1.07  
Dover_Athletic     11   17   +1       1.08    59.39    -0.30    65.26     9.76     1.22     1.92    18.68     5.54P    6.47R    0.38  
Stockport          11   17   +1       3.83    79.29     4.02    58.46    10.31    -8.95     0.55     7.28     1.77P   22.06R    2.51  
Barnet              9   16   +3       2.85    75.22     1.70    72.24     9.98    11.26     7.70    43.05    16.36P    1.48R    0.05  
Torquay            11   15   -1       2.44    69.93     3.19    55.02    10.31   -14.12     0.23     4.01     0.93P   33.52R    5.58  
Hartlepool         11   15   -2       0.40    53.93    -1.23    59.41     9.69    -7.78     0.49     7.12     1.86P   17.75R    1.70  
Solihull_Moors     10   14   +3      -1.92    33.88    -0.36    69.55    10.07    12.24     5.28    33.81    12.87P    2.79R    0.12  
Notts_County       11   14   +3      -5.01    14.69    -3.01    75.69    10.13    23.84    15.19    59.00    30.38P    0.71R    0.02  
Barrow             11   13   -1      -1.39    39.16     0.00    59.69     9.66    -2.95     0.55     7.62     2.02P   16.16R    1.63  
Eastleigh          11   13   -2      -0.78    44.26     0.01    59.89     9.70    -3.69     0.53     7.94     2.01P   16.35R    1.61  
Boreham_Wood       11   12   +1      -3.04    26.51     1.05    57.55     9.60    -2.57     0.29     5.27     1.38P   21.99R    2.29  
Sutton_United      11   12   -2      -2.38    31.13    -1.03    57.78     9.63    -5.39     0.26     5.28     1.33P   21.92R    2.41  
Harrogate_Town     11   12   -3      -3.82    21.48    -4.04    60.86     9.75    -2.03     0.66     9.56     2.71P   14.00R    1.18  
Wrexham            10   11   -2      -3.74    20.02    -3.59    64.33     9.92     4.06     1.70    17.15     5.86P    7.74R    0.65  
Aldershot          10   11   -3      -0.71    44.89    -0.15    52.74     9.40   -13.86     0.07     1.60     0.37P   40.35R    6.97  
AFC_Fylde          10   10   -6      -5.40    11.43    -8.57    64.13    10.10     1.05     1.72    16.86     5.81P    8.51R    0.66  
Chesterfield       11    8   -5      -7.62     5.09    -5.79    56.48     9.65    -4.43     0.19     4.06     1.16P   25.56R    3.27  
Chorley            11    8  -13      -1.31    40.77    -3.26    38.22     9.33   -42.04     0.00     0.03     0.01P   89.72R   62.71  
Ebbsfleet_United   11    7   -9      -6.81     6.78    -6.92    55.09     9.73    -8.93     0.11     3.05     0.75P   31.21R    4.74