Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 15 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 September 2019, Bournemouth 3 1 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         5   15  +11       3.19    89.14     2.03    87.45     8.18    59.16    47.15    85.22    95.34    98.42    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          5   10  +10      -2.05    20.67     0.23    87.24     7.56    69.88    47.77    86.97    96.21    98.81    99.91     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         5    8   +5      -1.07    34.30     1.40    72.16     8.94    35.77     3.13    14.86    48.29    70.45    91.80     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           5    8   +4      -0.95    38.03     0.85    64.73     9.07    21.74     0.58     3.94    17.25    35.94    72.02     0.08R    0.00  
Leicester         5    8   +2       1.04    64.52     1.92    54.47     9.12     2.62     0.02     0.29     2.33     7.07    26.62     1.64R    0.21  
Chelsea           5    8   +0      -0.97    37.19    -3.38    65.03     9.16    18.42     0.65     3.99    17.81    37.23    72.43     0.11R    0.01  
Arsenal           5    8   +0       0.38    55.24    -0.98    65.56     9.37    20.01     0.68     4.51    19.73    40.49    73.63     0.09R    0.01  
Bournemouth       5    7   -1       1.05    65.54     1.07    45.59     9.27   -15.84     0.00     0.03     0.32     1.17     6.42    13.34R    3.10  
West_Ham          4    7   -1       1.83    76.75    -0.18    49.01     9.40   -10.93     0.01     0.07     0.78     2.67    12.16     7.11R    1.43  
Southampton       5    7   -1       1.60    71.80     1.35    44.89     8.90   -14.73     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.76     5.11    13.63R    3.17  
Everton           5    7   -2      -0.78    40.51    -3.39    50.28     9.02    -6.57     0.01     0.09     0.84     3.10    14.04     4.47R    0.74  
Crystal_Palace    5    7   -3       1.01    65.07    -1.49    47.66     9.02   -11.68     0.00     0.02     0.40     1.59     8.68     8.37R    1.59  
Norwich           5    6   -3       2.21    79.27     3.99    41.51     9.56   -23.74     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.54     3.26    26.16R    8.69  
Burnley           5    5   -1      -0.16    50.38     1.92    42.41     8.74   -15.03     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.35     2.82    19.82R    5.05  
Sheff_Utd         5    5   -1      -0.51    45.69     1.30    38.32     8.97   -22.58     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.16     1.29    36.56R   13.31  
Brighton          5    5   -3      -0.35    47.38     0.08    37.00     8.30   -24.68     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.66    41.71R   14.24  
Newcastle         5    4   -4      -1.18    35.91    -1.02    44.81     8.83   -11.26     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.68     4.80    13.16R    2.79  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -2      -0.84    37.94     1.04    35.64     9.24   -28.73     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.79    48.96R   22.24  
Wolverhampton     5    3   -4      -2.76    17.64    -2.34    42.78     8.93   -14.53     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.38     3.09    19.32R    5.33  
Watford           5    2   -6      -3.90     9.13    -4.40    36.33     8.75   -27.30     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.64    45.48R   18.10  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 September 2019, Barnsley 0 2 Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     7   16   +9       4.48    88.79     6.17    81.59    10.48    27.07    26.62    44.08    79.38    54.35P    0.07R    0.00  
Swansea          7   16   +7       4.99    91.15     4.89    77.88    10.45    19.48    15.25    29.46    67.71    39.35P    0.15R    0.01  
Charlton         7   14   +5       4.22    87.24     4.67    64.02    10.80     0.08     1.67     4.16    20.05     7.27P    4.65R    0.78  
Bristol_City     7   14   +4       3.84    85.02     3.11    72.41    10.63    11.29     6.65    14.73    47.25    22.51P    0.74R    0.11  
Preston          7   13   +6       2.30    73.08     4.37    71.25    10.65    13.08     5.73    12.86    43.64    20.29P    0.93R    0.12  
West_Brom        7   13   +3       1.27    63.02    -0.25    79.25    10.73    22.52    19.73    35.23    71.83    45.96P    0.13R    0.01  
QPR              7   13   +1       4.07    86.63     2.14    59.05    10.33   -11.18     0.46     1.29     9.27     2.69P   10.81R    2.09  
Birmingham       7   13   -1       4.31    88.13     0.29    62.57    10.27    -6.49     0.84     2.44    14.91     4.75P    5.71R    1.05  
Nott'm_Forest    7   12   +4       2.95    79.19     4.79    69.64    10.46    10.32     3.89     9.46    36.75    15.77P    1.24R    0.20  
Sheff_Wed        7   12   +4       1.23    62.77     2.23    66.21    10.36     5.15     2.15     5.48    25.72    10.15P    2.54R    0.33  
Fulham           7   11   +5      -0.33    46.65     2.42    71.87    11.36    16.12     7.74    15.99    46.67    24.43P    1.28R    0.19  
Blackburn        7   10   +0       0.94    60.98     0.93    62.13    10.49    -2.04     0.83     2.45    15.01     5.09P    6.58R    1.24  
Middlesbrough    7    9   +0      -1.98    29.48    -2.01    66.70    10.05     6.65     2.04     5.22    26.31    11.15P    2.02R    0.28  
Cardiff          7    9   -2      -1.34    36.37    -3.12    64.48    11.00     1.10     1.91     4.74    22.01     8.97P    4.56R    0.78  
Millwall         7    9   -4       1.43    67.34    -1.11    55.69     9.95   -13.19     0.13     0.45     4.40     1.21P   17.21R    4.06  
Luton            7    7   -1      -1.89    31.80     0.25    56.92    11.32    -7.55     0.49     1.38     8.60     2.97P   16.89R    4.52  
Reading          7    7   -1      -0.93    41.07     1.52    52.35    10.16   -13.23     0.08     0.26     2.67     0.68P   26.90R    7.51  
Brentford        7    7   -1      -2.71    23.20    -1.23    65.14    10.52     5.89     1.66     4.47    23.05     9.32P    3.60R    0.60  
Derby            7    7   -3      -3.25    19.17    -3.96    65.47    10.46     4.47     1.77     4.71    23.41     9.74P    3.25R    0.57  
Hull             7    6   -3      -3.49    17.42    -2.71    56.04    10.72    -9.03     0.24     0.77     6.30     2.01P   17.62R    4.68  
Wigan            7    5   -7      -3.03    20.18    -4.71    51.36    10.06   -17.44     0.04     0.17     2.07     0.56P   30.39R    9.30  
Barnsley         7    5   -7      -3.20    19.65    -5.03    49.90    10.55   -19.58     0.05     0.17     1.83     0.53P   36.86R   13.13  
Huddersfield     7    1   -8      -6.81     1.48    -5.50    43.11    10.15   -23.93     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.06P   61.99R   31.87  
Stoke            7    1  -10      -7.29     1.04    -8.15    47.78    10.04   -19.57     0.02     0.04     0.88     0.21P   43.89R   16.56  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Coventry              8   16   +5       4.20    86.09     3.80    67.15     9.70     7.52     2.04     5.74    32.12    11.08P    1.14R    0.00  
Ipswich               7   15  +10       2.90    78.04     6.24    80.66    10.51    33.62    24.38    42.74    81.01    54.19P    0.04R    0.00  
Wycombe               8   15   +4       3.53    81.86     3.28    60.05     9.73    -3.92     0.42     1.35    12.36     3.22P    5.58R    0.06  
Fleetwood_Town        8   14   +3       1.65    66.54     1.01    67.76     9.86     9.53     2.44     6.62    34.96    12.94P    1.05R    0.00  
Sunderland            7   14   +3       1.79    68.96    -1.19    82.69     9.90    32.48    30.20    50.58    86.61    62.16P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough          7   13  +12       0.86    58.45     7.83    77.53    10.13    34.87    15.21    31.12    73.53    43.21P    0.08R    0.00  
Lincoln_City          8   12   +5       0.93    59.73     4.97    60.40    10.22     3.01     0.55     1.75    14.52     4.32P    5.91R    0.08  
Doncaster             6   12   +3       2.31    74.21     0.76    72.54    10.37    16.14     6.69    15.45    54.17    24.77P    0.44R    0.00  
Blackpool             8   12   +1       0.48    55.27     0.20    62.00     9.57     1.74     0.60     1.83    16.22     4.82P    3.36R    0.03  
MK_Dons               7   12   +0       2.71    76.42     0.64    57.90    10.64    -9.27     0.44     1.31    10.44     2.91P   10.63R    0.20  
Burton_Albion         7   11   +3       0.47    55.60     1.63    69.17     9.95    14.40     3.26     8.71    41.12    16.58P    0.81R    0.01  
Bristol_Rovers        8   11   -1      -0.17    49.08    -1.40    58.20     9.57    -4.74     0.19     0.78     8.57     2.19P    7.67R    0.12  
Rotherham             6   10   +4      -0.31    46.01     0.45    70.18    11.37    16.47     6.15    13.63    45.87    22.04P    1.31R    0.01  
Gillingham            7    9   +5      -1.57    33.39     3.52    59.80    10.28     4.04     0.54     1.71    13.55     4.15P    6.82R    0.08  
Shrewsbury            7    9   -2      -0.18    48.76    -1.43    59.00     9.79    -3.13     0.31     1.02    10.36     2.91P    6.80R    0.07  
Rochdale              7    9   -3       1.44    66.69     0.68    52.60     9.92   -16.34     0.06     0.24     3.45     0.69P   21.17R    0.74  
Oxford_Utd            8    8   -2      -2.23    29.37    -0.57    58.12    10.11    -1.81     0.27     1.05     9.75     2.81P    9.12R    0.17  
Portsmouth            5    5   +0      -2.87    16.90    -1.65    71.13    10.78    20.27     6.24    14.27    49.44    24.61P    0.73R    0.01  
Tranmere              7    5   -3      -2.23    27.08     1.50    41.95    10.00   -26.95     0.00     0.01     0.37     0.06P   61.69R    5.70  
Accrington_Stanley    7    5   -6      -2.70    23.27    -2.85    47.57     9.83   -21.02     0.02     0.07     1.10     0.24P   39.02R    2.07  
AFC_Wimbledon         8    3   -6      -5.51     5.40    -1.95    43.64     9.29   -19.49     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.06P   54.44R    3.64  
Southend              7    1  -13      -6.83     1.80    -9.88    41.46     9.79   -32.49     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.04P   64.18R    6.73  
Bolton                6  -11  -22      -3.57    10.84   -15.60    22.49     9.80   -54.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.02R   80.26  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2019, Crawley_Town 1 0 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            8   18   +6       4.87    89.25     2.80    78.11    10.12    17.89    18.93    46.01    75.88    53.81P    0.05R    0.01  
Swindon           8   17   +9       3.78    83.33     5.62    76.84    10.28    20.67    16.54    41.88    72.74    49.84P    0.05R    0.02  
Forest_Green      8   16   +2       4.62    88.05     1.24    71.86    10.04     7.86     6.62    22.94    53.35    29.96P    0.25R    0.04  
Newport_County    8   15   +3       4.42    87.25     3.33    68.59    10.02     5.76     3.67    14.45    40.79    20.12P    0.67R    0.19  
Crewe             8   15   +1       4.45    86.81     1.58    68.05    10.20     2.47     3.52    13.84    38.47    18.85P    0.89R    0.26  
Cheltenham        8   14   +7       2.10    70.28     5.60    65.23    10.13     5.79     2.16     9.30    29.97    13.62P    1.43R    0.38  
Bradford          8   14   +4       0.78    57.55     0.70    77.65    10.63    21.13    19.41    45.21    74.66    54.26P    0.10R    0.03  
Crawley_Town      8   14   +3       3.29    80.02     3.42    60.91     9.87    -4.36     0.75     4.02    16.23     6.24P    3.48R    1.18  
Grimsby           8   12   +4       1.96    70.12     5.19    61.04     9.96    -0.04     0.72     4.12    17.09     6.60P    3.62R    1.25  
Port_Vale         8   12   -1       2.29    73.28     0.49    57.84     9.62    -8.95     0.28     1.78     9.46     3.25P    6.47R    2.40  
Plymouth          8   11   +3      -2.32    28.27    -0.60    74.44    10.79    20.12    13.14    34.23    64.07    43.17P    0.19R    0.04  
Cambridge_Utd     8   11   +0       1.87    70.17     2.42    57.17     9.69    -7.85     0.26     1.63     8.60     2.84P    7.61R    3.02  
Macclesfield      8   11   +0       2.26    73.65     3.31    50.85     9.44   -17.53     0.04     0.33     2.45     0.63P   20.94R    9.60  
Northampton       8   10   +1      -1.03    40.19     0.89    66.18    10.28     7.20     2.57    10.81    33.45    16.34P    1.34R    0.43  
Carlisle          8   10   -4      -0.77    42.90    -3.67    62.46    10.37    -3.65     1.28     5.80    21.20     9.29P    3.37R    1.26  
Mansfield         8    9   +1      -4.36    13.00    -2.56    70.21     9.99    14.38     5.16    19.34    48.95    28.89P    0.36R    0.10  
Colchester        8    9   -1      -2.36    27.60    -1.64    65.01     9.96     5.20     1.82     8.34    28.53    13.52P    1.47R    0.50  
Leyton_Orient     8    9   -4       0.24    54.10    -0.68    48.58    10.10   -22.91     0.04     0.29     2.11     0.63P   30.69R   16.26  
Salford_City      8    8   -2      -0.58    46.11     1.89    44.61     9.90   -26.20     0.02     0.11     0.84     0.21P   46.05R   27.91  
Oldham            8    6   -5      -4.70    11.10    -4.61    61.53    10.33     0.28     0.87     4.78    19.12     8.51P    4.04R    1.54  
Walsall           8    6   -6      -4.84    10.80    -5.95    62.32    10.64     0.67     1.27     6.09    21.74    10.40P    3.73R    1.40  
Morecambe         8    6   -7      -2.75    23.56    -3.59    47.04     9.66   -23.45     0.01     0.11     0.95     0.24P   35.58R   19.47  
Scunthorpe        8    4   -7      -8.22     1.74    -8.89    59.57    10.95    -1.80     0.86     4.21    16.42     7.79P    6.74R    2.82  
Stevenage         8    3   -7      -7.43     1.90    -6.29    50.99     9.90   -12.66     0.05     0.39     2.92     0.98P   20.90R    9.88  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2019, Barnet 1 0 Maidenhead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking             11   24  +10       8.13    95.09     8.88    73.29    10.56    11.95    11.18    47.13    18.77P    1.49R    0.09  
Bromley            11   23   +7       5.70    88.19     3.64    73.51     9.84    10.50     9.76    47.70    17.84P    0.89R    0.01  
Halifax            11   22   +8       7.04    93.32     8.04    73.08     9.54    12.84     8.25    46.32    16.07P    0.79R    0.02  
Yeovil             11   19   +5       0.09    49.94    -0.70    80.99    10.01    26.00    30.82    76.25    45.92P    0.15R    0.01  
Dag_&_Red          11   18   +1       2.83    72.64     0.88    67.45     9.67     3.13     2.77    24.85     7.38P    4.02R    0.23  
Maidenhead         11   17   +6       2.78    72.76     7.28    60.69     9.53    -0.53     0.60     9.11     2.17P   13.49R    1.10  
Dover_Athletic     11   17   +1       1.09    59.43    -0.29    65.21     9.75     1.15     1.89    18.49     5.36P    6.41R    0.39  
Stockport          11   17   +1       3.84    79.21     4.05    58.52    10.41    -8.95     0.67     7.55     1.97P   22.44R    2.69  
Barnet              9   16   +3       2.84    75.03     1.71    72.05     9.90    11.00     7.22    42.27    15.71P    1.52R    0.06  
Torquay            11   15   -1       2.43    69.93     3.21    54.87    10.34   -14.42     0.31     3.98     0.97P   34.21R    6.14  
Hartlepool         11   15   -2       0.50    55.14    -1.08    59.07     9.61    -8.26     0.41     6.54     1.61P   18.48R    1.86  
Solihull_Moors     10   14   +3      -1.88    33.97    -0.28    69.45    10.08    12.06     5.11    33.76    12.84P    3.06R    0.13  
Notts_County       11   14   +3      -4.99    14.90    -3.00    75.57    10.25    23.72    15.25    57.84    30.03P    0.81R    0.02  
Barrow             11   13   -1      -1.43    38.73    -0.07    59.73     9.63    -2.97     0.50     7.69     2.07P   16.18R    1.67  
Eastleigh          11   13   -2      -0.83    44.01    -0.06    59.95     9.60    -3.55     0.53     7.80     2.16P   15.87R    1.64  
Boreham_Wood       11   12   +1      -2.99    26.76     1.14    57.39     9.50    -2.75     0.29     5.00     1.28P   22.02R    2.37  
Sutton_United      11   12   -2      -2.42    30.70    -1.05    57.80     9.68    -5.30     0.29     5.38     1.39P   21.85R    2.46  
Harrogate_Town     11   12   -3      -3.82    21.53    -4.03    60.90     9.79    -1.93     0.67     9.88     2.79P   14.09R    1.19  
Wrexham            10   11   -2      -3.70    20.34    -3.52    64.08     9.76     3.77     1.42    16.11     5.38P    7.65R    0.62  
Aldershot          10   11   -3      -0.63    45.66    -0.07    52.51     9.39   -14.15     0.05     1.57     0.35P   41.11R    7.34  
AFC_Fylde          10   10   -6      -5.38    11.56    -8.54    64.21    10.12     1.18     1.68    17.15     5.78P    8.39R    0.65  
Chesterfield       11    8   -5      -7.54     5.17    -5.70    56.46     9.77    -4.45     0.18     4.29     1.25P   25.91R    3.72  
Chorley            11    8  -13      -1.45    39.54    -3.51    38.60     9.44   -41.32     0.00     0.06     0.01P   88.79R   60.82  
Ebbsfleet_United   11    7   -9      -6.83     6.71    -6.96    55.28     9.81    -8.72     0.15     3.29     0.88P   30.34R    4.76