Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 14 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2019, Brighton 1 1 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         5   15  +11       3.19    89.00     2.10    87.76     8.14    59.61    48.36    85.56    95.43    98.55    99.84     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          5   10  +10      -2.09    20.18     0.11    87.21     7.62    69.52    46.21    86.06    95.80    98.65    99.89     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         5    8   +5      -1.07    34.54     1.45    72.32     8.94    35.88     3.12    14.55    47.73    69.81    91.45     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd           5    8   +4      -0.95    38.02     0.90    64.72     9.01    21.57     0.52     3.49    15.92    34.39    71.23     0.05R    0.00  
Leicester         5    8   +2       0.99    63.87     1.84    54.39     9.12     2.46     0.03     0.30     2.10     6.36    25.46     1.65R    0.18  
Chelsea           5    8   +0      -0.97    37.23    -3.39    64.87     9.15    18.04     0.61     3.74    16.57    35.14    71.07     0.08R    0.01  
Arsenal           4    7   +0       1.20    69.14    -0.27    66.85     9.65    21.42     1.12     5.92    23.11    44.66    76.22     0.09R    0.01  
Everton           4    7   +0       0.44    56.64    -1.62    52.80     9.32    -2.59     0.03     0.23     1.61     5.28    20.87     2.69R    0.38  
West_Ham          4    7   -1       1.85    77.02    -0.12    48.65     9.37   -11.44     0.01     0.07     0.66     2.29    11.00     7.17R    1.40  
Southampton       5    7   -1       1.60    72.02     1.39    44.70     8.85   -14.88     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.69     4.47    13.31R    3.03  
Crystal_Palace    5    7   -3       1.01    65.01    -1.51    47.59     8.95   -11.69     0.00     0.04     0.36     1.38     8.06     7.75R    1.52  
Norwich           5    6   -3       2.19    79.10     3.91    41.85     9.58   -22.82     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.53     3.32    24.56R    7.88  
Burnley           5    5   -1      -0.18    50.01     1.89    42.31     8.83   -15.05     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.36     2.77    19.65R    5.19  
Sheff_Utd         5    5   -1      -0.51    45.62     1.25    38.13     9.02   -22.87     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.17     1.23    36.49R   12.91  
Brighton          5    5   -3      -0.35    47.32     0.05    37.09     8.35   -24.45     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.65    39.78R   13.37  
Bournemouth       4    4   -3      -0.41    46.99    -0.66    42.65     9.38   -19.81     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.61     3.64    20.80R    5.73  
Newcastle         5    4   -4      -1.14    36.24    -1.00    44.72     8.81   -11.21     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.58     4.52    12.77R    2.77  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -2      -0.82    38.23     1.02    35.62     9.25   -28.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.72    47.74R   21.17  
Wolverhampton     5    3   -4      -2.69    18.07    -2.26    42.84     8.90   -14.30     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.34     2.93    18.32R    4.85  
Watford           4    1   -6      -3.89     7.18    -5.09    35.78     8.98   -28.68     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.66    47.11R   19.60  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2019, Blackburn 2 0 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Swansea          7   16   +7       5.00    91.52     4.90    77.72    10.59    19.29    16.43    30.80    67.86    40.44P    0.21R    0.03  
Charlton         7   14   +5       4.25    87.42     4.70    64.09    10.85     0.19     1.83     4.52    21.03     7.74P    5.28R    0.97  
Bristol_City     7   14   +4       3.87    85.40     3.18    72.19    10.63    10.95     7.21    15.46    47.12    22.81P    0.89R    0.11  
Leeds_United     6   13   +7       3.36    83.48     4.93    78.90    10.80    23.56    20.45    35.57    71.84    45.64P    0.17R    0.02  
Preston          7   13   +6       2.24    72.67     4.29    71.02    10.69    12.67     6.22    13.37    43.26    20.62P    1.11R    0.16  
West_Brom        7   13   +3       1.26    62.89    -0.28    79.44    10.59    22.92    22.17    37.80    73.34    48.28P    0.12R    0.01  
QPR              7   13   +1       4.06    86.59     2.12    58.82    10.38   -11.61     0.48     1.32     9.23     2.66P   12.27R    2.72  
Birmingham       7   13   -1       4.32    88.34     0.33    62.66    10.19    -6.50     0.91     2.59    15.73     5.03P    6.06R    1.21  
Nott'm_Forest    7   12   +4       2.96    79.06     4.79    69.52    10.54    10.15     4.25     9.85    37.78    16.30P    1.53R    0.25  
Fulham           7   11   +5      -0.28    47.29     2.51    71.77    11.40    15.97     8.08    16.82    47.28    25.33P    1.40R    0.21  
Blackburn        7   10   +0       0.96    61.23     0.96    62.00    10.51    -2.29     0.96     2.67    15.46     5.33P    7.39R    1.46  
Sheff_Wed        6    9   +2      -0.04    49.48     0.77    63.36    10.56     1.33     1.35     3.68    19.03     7.19P    5.22R    0.99  
Middlesbrough    7    9   +0      -2.01    29.23    -2.04    66.68    10.12     6.65     2.18     5.74    27.55    11.79P    2.29R    0.33  
Cardiff          7    9   -2      -1.32    36.93    -3.09    64.72    11.15     1.43     2.20     5.33    23.54    10.11P    5.09R    0.95  
Millwall         7    9   -4       1.40    66.81    -1.13    55.84     9.98   -13.02     0.14     0.51     4.89     1.35P   18.04R    4.57  
Luton            7    7   -1      -1.82    32.50     0.36    57.17    11.42    -7.14     0.61     1.66     9.34     3.47P   17.60R    5.43  
Reading          7    7   -1      -0.90    41.62     1.56    52.59    10.19   -12.89     0.08     0.32     2.92     0.77P   27.86R    8.45  
Brentford        7    7   -1      -2.77    22.49    -1.33    65.29    10.49     6.16     1.98     5.12    23.98    10.03P    3.73R    0.66  
Derby            7    7   -3      -3.24    19.35    -3.97    65.66    10.50     4.75     1.98     5.25    24.90    10.79P    3.36R    0.54  
Hull             7    6   -3      -3.52    16.80    -2.74    56.15    10.60    -8.88     0.27     0.84     6.49     2.06P   18.30R    5.05  
Barnsley         6    5   -5      -2.41    24.98    -3.86    52.40    10.86   -16.09     0.15     0.44     3.55     1.12P   30.07R   10.53  
Wigan            7    5   -7      -2.98    20.89    -4.64    51.28    10.08   -17.68     0.04     0.18     2.09     0.57P   32.55R   10.75  
Huddersfield     6    1   -6      -5.85     2.44    -4.06    45.75    10.53   -20.15     0.02     0.08     0.90     0.29P   53.57R   25.72  
Stoke            7    1  -10      -7.37     1.02    -8.26    47.72    10.04   -19.75     0.01     0.06     0.92     0.27P   45.89R   18.88  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Coventry              8   16   +5       4.25    86.33     3.87    66.91     9.69     7.28     1.96     5.44    31.02    10.55P    1.14R    0.00  
Ipswich               7   15  +10       2.89    78.22     6.28    80.69    10.51    33.56    24.31    42.89    80.96    54.47P    0.05R    0.00  
Wycombe               8   15   +4       3.49    81.45     3.18    60.17     9.73    -3.66     0.48     1.48    12.54     3.34P    5.51R    0.06  
Fleetwood_Town        8   14   +3       1.65    66.35     1.02    67.67     9.89     9.49     2.47     6.60    34.62    12.54P    0.96R    0.00  
Sunderland            7   14   +3       1.78    68.85    -1.18    82.63     9.87    32.37    29.95    50.31    86.23    62.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough          7   13  +12       0.84    58.33     7.82    77.41    10.14    34.59    15.01    30.61    72.91    42.62P    0.08R    0.00  
Lincoln_City          8   12   +5       0.88    59.07     4.90    60.50    10.24     3.24     0.58     1.85    14.92     4.51P    5.72R    0.09  
Doncaster             6   12   +3       2.30    74.17     0.75    72.53    10.45    16.13     6.95    15.81    53.52    24.88P    0.46R    0.00  
Blackpool             8   12   +1       0.44    54.96     0.15    62.16     9.55     1.94     0.61     2.02    16.54     5.14P    3.35R    0.04  
MK_Dons               7   12   +0       2.75    76.69     0.70    57.73    10.61    -9.49     0.40     1.27    10.14     2.77P   10.89R    0.29  
Burton_Albion         7   11   +3       0.42    55.01     1.54    69.51    10.00    14.93     3.57     9.31    42.15    17.52P    0.73R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers        8   11   -1      -0.22    48.36    -1.47    58.58     9.68    -4.13     0.29     1.02     9.42     2.64P    7.41R    0.10  
Rotherham             6   10   +4      -0.28    46.60     0.49    70.24    11.27    16.62     6.17    13.56    46.15    21.81P    1.27R    0.02  
Gillingham            7    9   +5      -1.55    33.45     3.55    59.55    10.17     3.68     0.53     1.55    12.83     3.81P    6.91R    0.11  
Shrewsbury            7    9   -2      -0.28    47.79    -1.59    59.43     9.79    -2.44     0.36     1.16    11.40     3.29P    6.35R    0.08  
Rochdale              7    9   -3       1.47    66.76     0.72    52.63     9.90   -16.23     0.07     0.21     3.45     0.73P   20.82R    0.53  
Oxford_Utd            8    8   -2      -2.21    29.12    -0.52    58.14     9.93    -1.71     0.25     0.91     9.54     2.68P    8.47R    0.12  
Portsmouth            5    5   +0      -2.86    16.95    -1.63    71.20    10.69    20.35     6.04    13.93    49.86    24.27P    0.76R    0.01  
Tranmere              7    5   -3      -2.29    26.37     1.35    42.28     9.97   -26.29     0.00     0.02     0.35     0.08P   60.44R    4.97  
Accrington_Stanley    7    5   -6      -2.57    24.39    -2.68    47.00     9.80   -21.89     0.01     0.04     1.00     0.18P   41.07R    2.17  
AFC_Wimbledon         8    3   -6      -5.53     5.30    -2.02    43.63     9.26   -19.50     0.00     0.01     0.25     0.04P   54.22R    3.48  
Southend              7    1  -13      -6.78     1.74    -9.82    41.22     9.74   -32.94     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.04P   65.05R    6.63  
Bolton                6  -11  -22      -3.50    11.34   -15.41    22.05     9.68   -55.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.33R   81.29  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2019, Crawley_Town 1 0 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            8   18   +6       4.91    89.49     2.86    77.96    10.01    17.72    18.62    45.30    75.91    53.07P    0.02R    0.01  
Swindon           8   17   +9       3.78    83.30     5.62    76.73    10.33    20.52    16.55    41.92    72.20    49.67P    0.05R    0.01  
Forest_Green      8   16   +2       4.54    87.67     1.13    72.12    10.08     8.21     7.15    23.83    54.46    30.96P    0.26R    0.07  
Newport_County    8   15   +3       4.41    87.28     3.37    68.37     9.94     5.46     3.48    14.13    40.05    19.73P    0.66R    0.18  
Crewe             8   15   +1       4.41    86.50     1.52    68.22    10.21     2.67     3.57    14.15    39.62    19.36P    0.84R    0.27  
Cheltenham        8   14   +7       2.07    69.76     5.58    65.22    10.12     5.74     2.22     9.54    29.76    13.79P    1.46R    0.46  
Bradford          8   14   +4       0.83    57.93     0.78    77.61    10.64    21.03    19.47    45.03    74.24    54.02P    0.08R    0.02  
Crawley_Town      8   14   +3       3.29    80.05     3.38    61.06     9.95    -4.22     0.74     4.17    16.96     6.63P    3.71R    1.19  
Grimsby           8   12   +4       1.95    69.69     5.18    61.13    10.01     0.01     0.81     4.35    17.49     6.95P    3.59R    1.28  
Port_Vale         8   12   -1       2.31    73.48     0.52    57.78     9.60    -8.97     0.29     1.75     9.27     3.15P    6.59R    2.51  
Plymouth          8   11   +3      -2.27    28.82    -0.53    74.26    10.88    19.86    12.85    34.27    63.60    43.09P    0.27R    0.09  
Cambridge_Utd     8   11   +0       1.87    70.05     2.40    57.18     9.77    -7.79     0.27     1.68     8.89     2.98P    7.73R    3.15  
Macclesfield      8   11   +0       2.22    73.46     3.26    51.00     9.40   -17.34     0.03     0.33     2.52     0.68P   20.55R    9.19  
Northampton       8   10   +1      -1.02    40.29     0.89    66.01    10.25     6.99     2.37    10.48    33.07    16.07P    1.45R    0.47  
Carlisle          8   10   -4      -0.81    42.45    -3.72    62.47    10.24    -3.62     1.15     5.45    20.96     8.90P    3.04R    1.01  
Mansfield         8    9   +1      -4.33    13.08    -2.51    70.12    10.06    14.32     5.58    19.47    48.43    28.69P    0.43R    0.11  
Colchester        8    9   -1      -2.41    27.22    -1.70    64.99    10.00     5.16     1.87     8.36    28.74    13.77P    1.60R    0.53  
Leyton_Orient     8    9   -4       0.23    53.82    -0.68    48.77    10.14   -22.53     0.04     0.29     2.19     0.63P   30.62R   16.00  
Salford_City      8    8   -2      -0.67    44.99     1.73    44.89     9.96   -25.71     0.01     0.12     0.89     0.25P   45.15R   27.76  
Oldham            8    6   -5      -4.67    11.25    -4.60    61.45    10.34     0.20     0.84     4.78    19.09     8.38P    4.00R    1.44  
Walsall           8    6   -6      -4.78    10.69    -5.90    62.42    10.52     0.82     1.23     6.06    21.74    10.46P    3.62R    1.34  
Morecambe         8    6   -7      -2.73    23.97    -3.54    46.92     9.69   -23.62     0.02     0.13     1.13     0.29P   36.39R   19.97  
Scunthorpe        8    4   -7      -8.14     1.74    -8.77    59.24    10.96    -2.36     0.79     3.98    15.61     7.38P    7.26R    3.10  
Stevenage         8    3   -7      -7.42     1.98    -6.28    51.06     9.98   -12.56     0.04     0.44     3.16     1.09P   20.63R    9.83  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 September 2019, Barnet 1 0 Maidenhead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking             11   24  +10       8.34    95.20     9.16    72.96    10.77    11.43    11.17    45.95    18.03P    1.79R    0.07  
Bromley            11   23   +7       5.61    87.68     3.50    73.82     9.92    10.99    10.64    49.00    18.66P    0.91R    0.03  
Halifax            11   22   +8       7.14    93.63     8.15    72.84     9.60    12.52     8.05    45.10    15.92P    1.05R    0.03  
Yeovil             11   19   +5       0.17    51.02    -0.59    80.67    10.08    25.60    29.99    75.33    45.06P    0.17R    0.01  
Dag_&_Red          11   18   +1       2.86    72.69     0.94    67.30     9.75     2.91     2.73    24.56     7.30P    4.37R    0.26  
Maidenhead         11   17   +6       2.88    73.50     7.46    60.50     9.49    -0.83     0.55     8.61     1.91P   14.05R    1.12  
Dover_Athletic     11   17   +1       1.12    59.58    -0.22    65.24     9.70     1.15     2.05    18.65     5.70P    6.25R    0.40  
Stockport          11   17   +1       3.96    79.89     4.20    58.17    10.30    -9.45     0.54     7.01     1.74P   23.15R    2.80  
Barnet              9   16   +3       2.86    75.03     1.73    72.07    10.02    11.03     7.58    42.44    16.19P    1.63R    0.08  
Torquay            11   15   -1       2.35    69.43     3.05    55.26    10.46   -13.78     0.32     4.50     1.08P   32.87R    5.89  
Hartlepool         11   15   -2       0.44    54.54    -1.14    59.38     9.56    -7.85     0.44     6.83     1.76P   17.66R    1.68  
Solihull_Moors     10   14   +3      -1.94    33.69    -0.37    69.41    10.13    12.08     5.18    33.65    12.89P    3.03R    0.18  
Notts_County       11   14   +3      -4.97    15.14    -3.00    75.44    10.23    23.43    14.67    57.96    29.68P    0.81R    0.05  
Barrow             11   13   -1      -1.49    38.20    -0.14    59.85     9.65    -2.77     0.48     7.82     2.09P   16.18R    1.63  
Eastleigh          11   13   -2      -0.76    44.44     0.03    59.82     9.69    -3.79     0.50     7.90     1.97P   16.36R    1.79  
Boreham_Wood       11   12   +1      -3.03    26.56     1.06    57.56     9.50    -2.50     0.30     5.09     1.27P   21.43R    2.34  
Sutton_United      11   12   -2      -2.45    30.45    -1.11    57.94     9.72    -5.11     0.32     5.77     1.56P   21.46R    2.40  
Harrogate_Town     11   12   -3      -3.81    21.53    -4.00    60.80     9.87    -2.14     0.71     9.97     2.91P   14.51R    1.39  
Wrexham            10   11   -2      -3.82    19.74    -3.67    64.33     9.86     4.09     1.67    17.22     5.81P    7.70R    0.58  
Aldershot          10   11   -3      -0.70    45.00    -0.15    52.68     9.43   -13.89     0.07     1.66     0.36P   40.71R    7.02  
AFC_Fylde          10   10   -6      -5.48    10.94    -8.67    64.35    10.04     1.45     1.69    17.59     6.10P    8.40R    0.67  
Chesterfield       11    8   -5      -7.61     5.21    -5.79    56.42     9.70    -4.50     0.21     4.11     1.20P   25.98R    3.57  
Chorley            11    8  -13      -1.40    40.06    -3.45    38.55     9.38   -41.37     0.00     0.06     0.01P   89.06R   61.36  
Ebbsfleet_United   11    7   -9      -6.87     6.68    -7.00    55.30     9.79    -8.70     0.14     3.22     0.81P   30.47R    4.67