Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 13 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2019, Arsenal 2 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         4   12   +9       2.61    85.64     1.84    86.55     8.42    57.26    33.04    84.26    94.92    98.32    99.78     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          4   10  +11       0.29    53.72     3.18    91.02     7.66    75.43    64.12    94.22    98.69    99.65    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         4    8   +3       1.93    76.10     2.13    55.60     9.39     3.21     0.04     0.52     4.03    10.67    32.66     1.48R    0.22  
Crystal_Palace    4    7   +1       1.49    72.00     0.97    50.06     9.21    -5.68     0.01     0.11     1.17     3.73    14.54     4.82R    0.70  
Arsenal           4    7   +0       1.16    68.35    -0.36    66.46     9.65    20.70     0.77     5.49    26.54    48.02    76.49     0.09R    0.01  
Everton           4    7   +0       0.56    58.26    -1.45    52.87     9.29    -2.33     0.01     0.21     2.33     6.56    22.61     2.55R    0.36  
West_Ham          4    7   -1       1.76    76.36    -0.21    48.96     9.38   -10.45     0.00     0.07     0.99     3.05    12.47     6.55R    1.23  
Man_Utd           4    5   +3      -2.05    23.32     0.67    63.66     9.43    21.56     0.37     3.34    17.86    36.19    67.92     0.15R    0.01  
Tottenham         4    5   +1      -1.62    25.57    -0.76    69.65     9.35    29.67     1.46     9.81    40.62    62.73    86.07     0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         4    5   +0       0.78    63.88     2.03    40.67     9.40   -19.76     0.00     0.02     0.13     0.49     2.76    26.92R    8.14  
Chelsea           4    5   -3      -2.06    22.17    -5.50    61.34     9.38    11.53     0.18     1.90    11.57    26.07    57.90     0.33R    0.04  
Burnley           4    4   -1       0.17    56.40     1.85    42.68     9.04   -14.74     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.66     3.68    18.70R    4.82  
Southampton       4    4   -2      -0.04    52.73     0.41    42.41     9.03   -16.80     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.47     3.46    20.02R    4.99  
Newcastle         4    4   -2      -0.87    39.37    -1.04    45.25     8.92   -10.55     0.00     0.01     0.25     1.01     5.92    11.37R    2.26  
Bournemouth       4    4   -3      -0.38    47.40    -0.53    42.84     9.34   -18.97     0.00     0.02     0.24     0.76     4.23    19.61R    5.24  
Brighton          4    4   -3       0.05    53.79     0.06    37.64     8.64   -23.70     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.14     0.95    37.42R   12.14  
Wolverhampton     4    3   -1      -1.84    24.67    -0.11    45.25     8.96    -8.85     0.00     0.02     0.25     1.05     5.67    11.74R    2.44  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -2      -0.79    38.78     0.96    35.77     9.27   -27.85     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.95    46.86R   19.55  
Norwich           4    3   -4      -0.20    47.99     0.94    36.03     9.55   -32.09     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.17     1.13    46.82R   20.39  
Watford           4    1   -6      -3.91     6.82    -5.11    36.16     8.98   -27.58     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.84    44.56R   17.46  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 13 September 2019, Derby 1 1 Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Swansea          6   16   +8       6.42    97.75     5.95    80.35    10.83    22.16    22.72    39.20    75.62    48.54P    0.13R    0.01  
Charlton         6   14   +6       5.56    94.88     5.66    67.41    11.22     3.93     3.43     8.08    31.28    12.87P    3.26R    0.61  
Leeds_United     6   13   +7       3.38    83.42     4.97    78.85    10.79    23.42    18.87    34.33    71.44    44.79P    0.17R    0.02  
West_Brom        6   12   +3       1.57    66.67    -0.44    79.74    10.97    22.86    21.74    37.60    73.74    48.23P    0.18R    0.03  
Bristol_City     6   11   +3       2.36    75.80     2.36    70.04    10.89     9.10     4.81    11.40    39.81    18.10P    1.73R    0.25  
Fulham           6   10   +5       0.14    51.36     2.56    72.21    11.70    16.12     8.82    17.67    48.59    26.09P    1.41R    0.21  
Preston          6   10   +4       1.07    62.40     2.98    68.31    10.98     8.97     3.77     8.98    34.51    15.10P    2.53R    0.42  
QPR              6   10   +0       2.68    79.19     1.49    56.68    10.65   -13.44     0.24     0.86     7.05     1.89P   17.52R    4.72  
Birmingham       6   10   -2       2.66    79.22    -0.66    59.92    10.50    -9.20     0.53     1.62    11.20     3.38P   10.52R    2.40  
Nott'm_Forest    6    9   +3       1.10    63.13     3.51    66.68    10.78     7.21     2.49     6.40    28.84    11.64P    3.19R    0.59  
Sheff_Wed        6    9   +2       0.01    49.99     0.84    63.46    10.66     1.36     1.34     3.75    19.35     7.43P    5.65R    1.11  
Cardiff          7    9   -2      -1.27    37.11    -3.03    64.51    11.07     1.10     2.00     4.93    22.95     9.72P    5.18R    1.04  
Millwall         6    9   -2       2.25    75.93     0.17    57.75    10.20   -10.33     0.29     0.91     7.41     2.14P   14.14R    3.48  
Brentford        6    7   +1      -1.77    30.21     0.11    67.93    10.81    10.03     3.27     8.17    33.26    14.74P    2.55R    0.46  
Luton            6    7   +0      -0.67    43.27     0.95    59.15    11.69    -5.14     0.81     2.34    13.08     4.67P   14.14R    4.03  
Reading          6    7   +0      -0.04    51.04     1.91    53.86    10.38   -12.16     0.12     0.44     4.23     1.13P   24.35R    7.19  
Blackburn        6    7   -2      -0.25    48.49    -0.35    59.82    10.72    -5.20     0.63     1.74    11.67     3.88P   11.11R    2.84  
Derby            7    7   -3      -3.17    20.15    -3.85    65.45    10.56     4.36     1.78     4.95    24.81    10.40P    3.80R    0.72  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -1      -3.10    17.97    -2.29    65.37    10.42     6.02     1.74     4.80    24.35    10.28P    3.47R    0.62  
Hull             6    5   -3      -2.82    20.93    -2.24    56.96    10.81    -8.18     0.34     0.97     7.90     2.44P   16.97R    4.76  
Barnsley         6    5   -5      -2.42    24.86    -3.87    52.57    11.08   -15.93     0.16     0.49     4.09     1.26P   30.39R   10.53  
Wigan            6    4   -7      -2.96    18.73    -5.21    51.20    10.32   -18.27     0.07     0.22     2.38     0.62P   33.45R   11.69  
Huddersfield     6    1   -6      -5.85     2.46    -4.04    45.73    10.60   -20.32     0.01     0.07     0.92     0.25P   53.85R   26.27  
Stoke            6    1   -9      -6.18     2.05    -7.50    49.34    10.40   -18.47     0.04     0.10     1.52     0.41P   40.29R   16.02  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Bristol_Rovers 3 3 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wycombe               7   15   +6       4.34    88.03     4.38    61.96    10.18    -0.96     1.03     2.85    17.74     5.50P    4.43R    0.07  
Coventry              7   15   +5       4.32    88.11     3.48    66.80     9.95     6.46     2.22     6.25    31.95    11.46P    1.38R    0.01  
Ipswich               6   14  +10       3.69    86.75     6.87    81.91    10.89    34.98    31.27    50.00    83.51    60.13P    0.05R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        7   13   +3       2.06    71.51     1.06    68.26    10.21     9.78     3.40     8.68    38.10    15.36P    1.16R    0.01  
Lincoln_City          7   12   +6       2.27    72.93     5.88    62.99    10.63     5.85     1.42     3.82    22.20     7.62P    4.04R    0.12  
Blackpool             7   12   +4       1.85    69.06     3.16    66.12     9.97     8.98     2.00     5.58    30.21    11.09P    1.66R    0.02  
Doncaster             5   11   +3       2.31    76.54     0.18    72.28    10.82    15.05     8.18    17.43    53.52    26.41P    0.63R    0.01  
Sunderland            6   11   +1       0.69    58.10    -2.31    80.50    10.26    28.98    24.45    43.80    81.19    56.15P    0.07R    0.00  
Peterborough          6   10   +6       0.49    55.38     4.06    73.32    10.54    24.03     8.94    19.97    58.83    30.39P    0.40R    0.01  
Burton_Albion         6   10   +3       0.99    61.54     1.84    70.24    10.34    15.41     5.01    12.18    46.08    20.65P    0.82R    0.01  
Rochdale              6    9   +3       1.61    68.30     4.38    56.46    10.27    -5.79     0.25     0.88     8.19     2.04P   12.37R    0.40  
MK_Dons               6    9   -3       1.22    64.18    -2.13    52.24    10.77   -18.92     0.17     0.50     4.37     1.15P   25.03R    1.63  
Bristol_Rovers        7    8   -2      -1.78    31.76    -2.31    55.53     9.86    -7.28     0.15     0.51     6.05     1.63P   13.42R    0.49  
Shrewsbury            6    8   -2       0.13    52.85    -1.46    59.56    10.09    -2.78     0.41     1.41    12.44     3.68P    6.93R    0.22  
Rotherham             5    7   -1      -0.49    44.43    -1.97    66.39    11.64     7.91     3.73     8.60    33.70    14.96P    3.26R    0.10  
Gillingham            6    6   +3      -2.45    23.38     2.77    57.91    10.56     1.58     0.45     1.37    11.01     3.44P   10.20R    0.31  
Tranmere              6    5   +0      -1.70    31.52     2.90    44.48    10.35   -21.88     0.02     0.06     0.90     0.22P   51.81R    5.88  
Portsmouth            5    5   +0      -2.81    17.86    -1.56    71.14    10.86    20.04     6.69    15.29    50.40    25.60P    0.84R    0.02  
Accrington_Stanley    6    5   -4      -1.90    29.35    -1.85    48.83    10.17   -18.85     0.03     0.12     1.89     0.42P   34.77R    2.62  
Oxford_Utd            7    5   -5      -2.97    21.23    -2.16    55.59    10.30    -6.37     0.17     0.65     6.92     1.91P   14.53R    0.61  
AFC_Wimbledon         7    2   -6      -5.24     4.92    -2.15    43.80     9.55   -19.69     0.00     0.02     0.45     0.10P   53.99R    5.70  
Southend              6    0  -13      -6.44     0.80    -9.96    41.93    10.12   -31.61     0.00     0.02     0.35     0.09P   62.42R    9.93  
Bolton                5  -11  -17      -3.44    11.11   -13.08    25.88    10.15   -44.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.78R   71.81  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Bradford 2 1 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            7   17   +6       5.88    95.16     3.75    79.56    10.19    19.43    21.72    50.17    80.01    57.81P    0.02R    0.01  
Newport_County    7   15   +5       5.41    93.17     4.84    70.99    10.20     9.23     5.56    19.92    50.47    26.51P    0.39R    0.11  
Crewe             7   15   +2       6.02    94.80     2.80    70.59    10.53     5.33     5.53    19.30    48.44    25.24P    0.52R    0.18  
Swindon           7   14   +6       2.99    79.16     3.86    74.18    10.46    16.09    10.39    30.98    62.80    38.86P    0.17R    0.05  
Forest_Green      7   13   +1       3.18    80.96     0.54    69.94    10.36     6.44     4.72    17.68    46.19    24.41P    0.52R    0.17  
Cheltenham        7   11   +5       0.81    59.26     4.15    62.57    10.38     2.18     1.21     5.94    22.16     9.26P    3.00R    1.10  
Grimsby           7   11   +4       2.17    73.50     4.94    60.87    10.16    -0.67     0.71     3.99    17.26     6.51P    4.15R    1.54  
Plymouth          7   11   +4      -0.82    41.38     0.59    77.64    11.16    24.00    19.57    44.69    73.61    53.46P    0.14R    0.05  
Macclesfield      7   11   +3       2.69    78.12     4.84    52.86     9.74   -13.39     0.07     0.62     4.23     1.23P   15.86R    7.07  
Bradford          7   11   +3      -0.71    42.61    -0.05    75.45    10.88    19.31    13.66    36.11    67.50    45.57P    0.20R    0.06  
Crawley_Town      7   11   +2       1.58    67.05     2.27    58.01    10.17    -7.33     0.38     2.37    11.11     3.98P    7.02R    2.76  
Mansfield         7    9   +2      -2.88    21.13    -1.39    72.74    10.27    17.06     7.94    26.40    58.41    36.71P    0.22R    0.06  
Colchester        7    9   +0      -1.25    37.10    -0.98    66.78    10.35     6.79     2.53    11.43    35.28    17.47P    1.23R    0.43  
Port_Vale         7    9   -2       0.55    57.33    -0.64    55.08     9.83   -11.62     0.14     1.05     6.07     2.01P   11.35R    4.92  
Salford_City      7    8   +0       0.25    54.84     3.05    47.05    10.39   -22.32     0.04     0.23     1.83     0.50P   36.61R   21.78  
Cambridge_Utd     7    8   -1       0.04    52.12     1.08    54.13     9.85   -10.49     0.09     0.79     5.25     1.63P   13.27R    6.00  
Leyton_Orient     7    8   -4       0.17    53.77    -1.40    47.64    10.14   -24.52     0.03     0.23     1.73     0.50P   34.33R   19.51  
Northampton       7    7   -1      -2.21    27.64    -0.46    63.36    10.49     3.41     1.32     6.54    24.19    10.73P    2.86R    1.14  
Carlisle          7    7   -5      -2.37    26.55    -4.65    59.76    10.45    -6.17     0.59     3.41    14.87     6.01P    5.66R    2.31  
Morecambe         7    6   -4      -2.10    28.58    -1.78    49.31     9.94   -19.01     0.03     0.24     2.06     0.59P   27.44R   14.43  
Walsall           7    6   -5      -3.76    15.40    -5.32    65.09    10.79     3.65     2.22     9.42    30.23    15.33P    2.26R    0.82  
Oldham            7    5   -5      -3.98    13.54    -4.15    62.22    10.55     0.79     1.07     5.50    21.27     9.56P    3.78R    1.43  
Stevenage         7    3   -6      -6.04     3.86    -5.31    52.84    10.18   -10.73     0.08     0.69     4.53     1.47P   16.76R    7.90  
Scunthorpe        7    1  -10      -8.99     0.38   -10.58    56.21    11.25    -7.47     0.39     2.32    10.51     4.63P   12.22R    6.17  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Aldershot 1 2 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking             10   23  +10       8.59    96.76     8.99    73.96    10.99    12.46    12.46    48.00    19.76P    1.50R    0.05  
Halifax            10   22   +9       8.02    96.36     8.48    74.39     9.77    13.73    10.32    49.66    18.61P    0.64R    0.01  
Bromley            10   22   +7       6.09    90.79     3.62    74.05    10.20    10.69    11.13    48.00    18.91P    0.92R    0.03  
Maidenhead         10   17   +7       3.83    80.27     7.84    62.22     9.88     0.55     1.00    11.77     2.87P   10.86R    0.75  
Stockport          10   17   +2       4.93    86.29     4.60    60.89    10.64    -6.33     1.07    10.76     2.80P   15.95R    1.63  
Yeovil             10   16   +4      -1.17    39.67    -1.11    78.96    10.33    24.45    23.93    67.88    38.59P    0.33R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     10   16   +1       1.90    66.34     0.45    66.67    10.05     2.81     2.83    22.29     7.13P    5.10R    0.34  
Torquay            10   15   +0       3.31    76.53     3.48    57.23    10.84   -12.10     0.63     6.55     1.77P   26.74R    3.80  
Hartlepool         10   15   +0       1.32    61.98     0.08    61.55     9.87    -4.56     0.86    10.14     2.76P   12.64R    0.97  
Dag_&_Red          10   15   -1       1.80    66.08    -0.21    64.46     9.93    -0.87     1.54    15.98     4.54P    7.44R    0.48  
Solihull_Moors      9   14   +6      -0.89    41.67     2.11    72.94    10.33    18.38     9.89    45.86    20.03P    1.37R    0.05  
Barnet              8   13   +2       1.61    65.78     1.28    70.32    10.25     9.87     5.64    34.61    12.94P    2.54R    0.12  
Eastleigh          10   12   -2      -0.56    46.21    -0.20    60.00     9.94    -4.24     0.60     8.05     2.14P   15.87R    1.57  
Notts_County       10   11   +2      -6.19     8.88    -3.43    73.88    10.45    22.76    11.68    49.97    25.13P    1.33R    0.07  
Boreham_Wood       10   11   +1      -2.73    27.86     0.96    57.58     9.88    -3.27     0.34     5.23     1.38P   21.77R    2.27  
Sutton_United      10   11   -2      -2.26    31.07    -1.34    57.87     9.90    -5.77     0.35     5.31     1.35P   21.51R    2.26  
Harrogate_Town     10   11   -3      -3.35    23.50    -3.84    61.54    10.20    -1.61     1.00    11.11     3.28P   13.03R    1.03  
Wrexham             9   10   -2      -3.23    22.27    -3.35    65.13    10.09     4.71     2.01    18.48     6.33P    6.77R    0.51  
Barrow             10   10   -4      -2.60    28.67    -2.35    55.88     9.82    -9.40     0.17     3.54     0.88P   27.71R    3.68  
AFC_Fylde           9   10   -5      -4.31    15.71    -7.99    65.47    10.22     2.03     2.19    19.47     6.82P    6.86R    0.44  
Aldershot           9    8   -4      -2.13    31.34    -0.84    50.18     9.64   -16.26     0.03     0.94     0.20P   50.01R   10.05  
Chorley            10    7  -13      -1.40    39.60    -3.86    37.94     9.69   -43.53     0.00     0.05     0.01P   88.81R   60.98  
Ebbsfleet_United   10    6   -9      -6.55     6.38    -7.10    55.42     9.95    -9.06     0.15     3.26     0.91P   29.35R    4.11  
Chesterfield       10    5   -6      -8.91     1.94    -6.28    54.89    10.04    -5.44     0.17     3.13     0.87P   30.94R    4.80