Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 12 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2019, Arsenal 2 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         4   12   +9       2.61    85.69     1.87    86.50     8.40    57.07    32.80    84.48    95.01    98.25    99.73     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          4   10  +11       0.29    53.84     3.18    91.07     7.68    75.50    64.45    94.23    98.65    99.61    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         4    8   +3       1.94    76.31     2.14    55.50     9.33     3.15     0.03     0.52     3.85    10.32    32.08     1.41R    0.19  
Crystal_Palace    4    7   +1       1.46    71.44     0.94    50.11     9.20    -5.48     0.00     0.08     1.09     3.60    14.69     4.68R    0.77  
Arsenal           4    7   +0       1.14    68.14    -0.40    66.68     9.61    21.04     0.83     5.85    27.15    48.65    77.10     0.09R    0.01  
Everton           4    7   +0       0.56    58.39    -1.44    53.02     9.27    -2.04     0.03     0.28     2.28     6.84    22.88     2.48R    0.34  
West_Ham          4    7   -1       1.78    76.73    -0.19    48.73     9.40   -10.86     0.01     0.06     0.96     2.99    12.23     6.91R    1.33  
Man_Utd           4    5   +3      -2.02    23.63     0.72    63.67     9.36    21.59     0.40     3.22    17.90    35.84    67.79     0.15R    0.01  
Tottenham         4    5   +1      -1.62    25.60    -0.75    69.52     9.20    29.40     1.26     9.26    39.79    62.48    86.22     0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         4    5   +0       0.79    63.96     2.05    40.79     9.36   -19.59     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.47     2.66    26.41R    8.12  
Chelsea           4    5   -3      -2.09    22.05    -5.55    61.43     9.41    11.65     0.21     1.95    11.99    26.15    57.68     0.28R    0.03  
Burnley           4    4   -1       0.16    56.20     1.85    42.62     9.06   -14.91     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.64     3.63    18.93R    4.77  
Southampton       4    4   -2      -0.02    52.83     0.42    42.46     8.99   -16.65     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.63     3.41    19.37R    4.93  
Newcastle         4    4   -2      -0.87    39.30    -1.02    45.22     8.90   -10.62     0.00     0.03     0.29     1.01     5.62    11.53R    2.26  
Bournemouth       4    4   -3      -0.38    47.42    -0.52    42.77     9.32   -18.95     0.00     0.01     0.22     0.81     4.29    19.66R    5.11  
Brighton          4    4   -3       0.04    53.71     0.04    37.55     8.59   -23.76     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.97    37.64R   12.08  
Wolverhampton     4    3   -1      -1.85    24.80    -0.12    45.47     9.10    -8.43     0.00     0.03     0.31     1.13     6.37    11.55R    2.57  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -2      -0.79    38.81     0.94    35.75     9.32   -28.02     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.85    46.71R   19.82  
Norwich           4    3   -4      -0.18    48.40     0.96    35.82     9.59   -32.50     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.21     1.15    47.55R   20.71  
Watford           4    1   -6      -3.91     6.90    -5.13    36.11     8.88   -27.60     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.72    44.64R   16.96  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Birmingham 2 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Swansea          6   16   +8       6.40    97.72     5.93    80.57    10.81    22.52    22.95    39.66    75.86    48.99P    0.10R    0.01  
Charlton         6   14   +6       5.59    94.97     5.71    67.13    11.32     3.44     3.42     7.90    30.11    12.39P    3.42R    0.65  
Leeds_United     6   13   +7       3.36    83.33     4.92    79.00    10.92    23.74    19.08    34.75    71.47    45.35P    0.18R    0.02  
West_Brom        6   12   +3       1.56    66.57    -0.42    79.78    10.97    22.93    21.48    37.44    73.42    48.01P    0.17R    0.01  
Bristol_City     6   11   +3       2.33    75.67     2.33    70.07    10.85     9.23     4.63    10.79    39.97    17.77P    1.62R    0.29  
Fulham           6   10   +5       0.17    51.70     2.59    72.15    11.70    15.97     8.51    17.45    48.25    25.88P    1.49R    0.24  
Preston          6   10   +4       1.02    61.78     2.92    68.45    11.01     9.17     3.73     9.09    34.99    15.06P    2.34R    0.43  
QPR              6   10   +0       2.69    79.33     1.50    56.59    10.55   -13.59     0.29     0.84     6.69     1.90P   17.56R    4.60  
Birmingham       6   10   -2       2.71    79.70    -0.58    59.77    10.54    -9.46     0.49     1.56    10.83     3.27P   10.94R    2.50  
Nott'm_Forest    6    9   +3       1.08    63.01     3.50    66.68    10.70     7.17     2.33     6.16    28.16    11.27P    3.05R    0.57  
Sheff_Wed        6    9   +2       0.03    50.34     0.87    63.28    10.77     1.07     1.35     3.53    18.91     7.07P    5.93R    1.18  
Millwall         6    9   -2       2.25    76.14     0.16    58.03    10.29    -9.90     0.29     1.03     7.83     2.32P   13.66R    3.15  
Cardiff          6    8   -2      -1.16    37.83    -3.39    64.60    11.36     0.63     2.20     5.37    23.24     9.87P    5.57R    1.17  
Brentford        6    7   +1      -1.76    30.54     0.16    67.76    10.92     9.76     3.22     7.72    32.59    14.34P    2.75R    0.55  
Luton            6    7   +0      -0.70    43.25     0.93    59.04    11.66    -5.29     0.82     2.29    12.50     4.54P   14.21R    4.10  
Reading          6    7   +0      -0.02    51.30     1.93    53.78    10.32   -12.28     0.08     0.33     3.84     0.99P   24.28R    7.10  
Blackburn        6    7   -2      -0.26    48.40    -0.37    59.89    10.77    -5.11     0.60     1.77    11.83     3.95P   10.94R    2.68  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -1      -3.10    17.78    -2.30    65.53    10.33     6.25     1.61     4.47    24.49    10.18P    3.26R    0.56  
Derby            6    6   -3      -2.64    22.31    -3.62    66.53    10.79     5.44     2.32     5.92    28.38    11.74P    3.44R    0.66  
Hull             6    5   -3      -2.85    20.40    -2.30    57.44    10.92    -7.53     0.42     1.17     8.57     2.78P   16.06R    4.43  
Barnsley         6    5   -5      -2.40    25.12    -3.86    52.19    11.00   -16.43     0.10     0.39     3.64     1.11P   30.89R   11.32  
Wigan            6    4   -7      -2.93    18.61    -5.14    50.90    10.30   -18.83     0.03     0.16     2.08     0.53P   34.30R   12.06  
Huddersfield     6    1   -6      -5.85     2.50    -4.04    45.76    10.63   -20.35     0.02     0.05     0.83     0.24P   53.50R   26.08  
Stoke            6    1   -9      -6.13     1.92    -7.44    49.24    10.30   -18.57     0.04     0.14     1.52     0.45P   40.34R   15.64  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Bristol_Rovers 3 3 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wycombe               7   15   +6       4.35    88.22     4.38    61.97    10.16    -0.96     0.91     2.73    17.94     5.43P    4.43R    0.07  
Coventry              7   15   +5       4.33    87.94     3.48    66.83    10.00     6.42     2.25     6.25    32.12    11.49P    1.38R    0.01  
Ipswich               6   14  +10       3.59    86.11     6.71    82.34    10.85    35.74    32.72    51.55    84.54    61.57P    0.05R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        7   13   +3       2.09    71.74     1.11    68.17    10.22     9.62     3.17     8.25    37.68    15.02P    1.21R    0.01  
Lincoln_City          7   12   +6       2.22    72.66     5.80    62.90    10.59     5.82     1.45     3.81    21.65     7.44P    4.07R    0.10  
Blackpool             7   12   +4       1.75    67.96     3.02    66.43    10.02     9.53     2.04     6.01    31.37    11.85P    1.58R    0.02  
Doncaster             5   11   +3       2.32    76.44     0.16    72.23    10.80    14.99     7.95    17.07    53.21    26.02P    0.68R    0.01  
Sunderland            6   11   +1       0.73    58.70    -2.27    80.44    10.19    28.93    23.61    42.93    81.28    55.23P    0.04R    0.00  
Peterborough          6   10   +6       0.48    55.24     4.05    73.31    10.57    24.02     8.72    19.65    58.60    30.27P    0.43R    0.01  
Burton_Albion         6   10   +3       1.06    62.19     1.94    69.99    10.39    15.04     4.82    11.62    44.99    19.80P    0.86R    0.02  
Rochdale              6    9   +3       1.69    69.40     4.50    56.23    10.23    -6.25     0.26     0.84     7.69     2.01P   12.76R    0.45  
MK_Dons               6    9   -3       1.29    64.88    -2.03    51.88    10.77   -19.57     0.15     0.47     4.17     1.10P   25.99R    1.75  
Bristol_Rovers        7    8   -2      -1.84    31.00    -2.41    55.77     9.90    -6.94     0.16     0.53     6.27     1.73P   13.01R    0.54  
Shrewsbury            6    8   -2       0.14    52.93    -1.47    59.71    10.02    -2.55     0.43     1.41    12.34     3.70P    6.69R    0.21  
Rotherham             5    7   -1      -0.50    44.44    -1.98    66.51    11.63     8.09     3.65     8.66    34.47    15.04P    3.21R    0.08  
Gillingham            6    6   +3      -2.43    23.67     2.81    57.84    10.55     1.41     0.43     1.38    10.93     3.45P   10.16R    0.34  
Tranmere              6    5   +0      -1.75    30.97     2.77    44.90    10.44   -21.16     0.02     0.07     1.02     0.22P   49.83R    5.51  
Portsmouth            5    5   +0      -2.79    17.95    -1.51    71.27    10.96    20.24     7.06    15.95    50.72    26.26P    0.84R    0.01  
Accrington_Stanley    6    5   -4      -1.88    29.81    -1.82    48.76    10.10   -18.93     0.04     0.14     1.78     0.41P   34.82R    2.63  
Oxford_Utd            7    5   -5      -2.96    21.49    -2.13    55.38    10.34    -6.74     0.16     0.63     6.47     1.77P   15.29R    0.62  
AFC_Wimbledon         7    2   -6      -5.28     4.92    -2.20    43.88     9.55   -19.57     0.00     0.02     0.40     0.10P   53.63R    5.71  
Southend              6    0  -13      -6.41     0.78    -9.88    41.64    10.05   -32.16     0.01     0.02     0.34     0.09P   63.37R    9.92  
Bolton                5  -11  -17      -3.41    11.30   -13.02    25.84    10.23   -45.02     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   95.66R   71.97  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Bradford 2 1 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            7   17   +6       5.88    95.01     3.75    79.75    10.28    19.66    22.36    50.74    80.33    58.41P    0.03R    0.01  
Newport_County    7   15   +5       5.44    93.34     4.90    70.87    10.33     9.07     5.53    19.95    50.15    26.56P    0.39R    0.12  
Crewe             7   15   +2       6.00    94.77     2.80    70.36    10.50     4.97     4.97    18.61    47.75    24.55P    0.57R    0.16  
Swindon           7   14   +6       2.98    78.99     3.86    74.36    10.53    16.33    10.92    31.62    63.45    39.47P    0.16R    0.04  
Forest_Green      7   13   +1       3.11    80.51     0.45    69.99    10.39     6.54     4.83    17.96    46.36    24.59P    0.60R    0.20  
Cheltenham        7   11   +5       0.80    59.07     4.12    62.63    10.40     2.28     1.23     5.97    22.68     9.53P    3.07R    1.13  
Grimsby           7   11   +4       2.12    72.91     4.86    61.11    10.02    -0.35     0.64     3.93    17.25     6.48P    3.67R    1.37  
Plymouth          7   11   +4      -0.86    40.99     0.51    77.85    11.14    24.32    19.81    45.42    74.46    54.32P    0.12R    0.03  
Macclesfield      7   11   +3       2.71    78.34     4.88    52.79     9.79   -13.64     0.08     0.61     4.08     1.18P   16.17R    7.34  
Bradford          7   11   +3      -0.65    42.95     0.02    75.13    10.87    18.82    12.95    35.03    66.19    44.52P    0.20R    0.06  
Crawley_Town      7   11   +2       1.60    67.64     2.32    57.88    10.12    -7.51     0.36     2.26    10.93     3.91P    7.23R    2.90  
Mansfield         7    9   +2      -2.90    21.13    -1.42    72.78    10.32    17.14     7.86    26.36    58.66    36.62P    0.27R    0.07  
Colchester        7    9   +0      -1.25    37.02    -0.97    66.85    10.35     6.90     2.66    11.41    35.23    17.52P    1.18R    0.39  
Port_Vale         7    9   -2       0.53    57.38    -0.65    55.08     9.81   -11.61     0.14     1.00     6.11     1.85P   11.36R    4.97  
Salford_City      7    8   +0       0.25    54.77     3.05    47.07    10.27   -22.36     0.05     0.26     1.69     0.48P   36.38R   21.19  
Cambridge_Utd     7    8   -1       0.03    52.35     1.08    54.04     9.82   -10.61     0.10     0.76     5.10     1.55P   13.46R    6.14  
Leyton_Orient     7    8   -4       0.16    53.49    -1.43    47.75    10.26   -24.32     0.04     0.24     1.88     0.49P   34.41R   19.77  
Northampton       7    7   -1      -2.26    27.32    -0.51    63.48    10.51     3.67     1.37     7.06    25.08    11.45P    2.80R    1.09  
Carlisle          7    7   -5      -2.42    25.97    -4.72    60.19    10.45    -5.48     0.64     3.70    15.99     6.41P    5.35R    2.09  
Morecambe         7    6   -4      -2.07    28.84    -1.74    49.38     9.96   -18.85     0.03     0.28     2.18     0.65P   27.06R   14.47  
Walsall           7    6   -5      -3.60    16.35    -5.12    64.45    10.88     2.72     1.88     8.50    28.25    14.05P    2.64R    1.00  
Oldham            7    5   -5      -4.02    13.49    -4.20    62.28    10.50     0.84     1.02     5.31    21.34     9.38P    3.65R    1.51  
Stevenage         7    3   -6      -6.04     3.63    -5.31    52.87    10.17   -10.69     0.10     0.68     4.79     1.55P   16.47R    7.66  
Scunthorpe        7    1  -10      -8.97     0.41   -10.52    55.96    11.22    -7.84     0.42     2.32    10.05     4.48P   12.77R    6.28  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Aldershot 1 2 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking             10   23  +10       8.67    96.86     9.10    73.78    10.87    12.18    11.69    47.01    18.91P    1.43R    0.05  
Halifax            10   22   +9       8.03    96.35     8.53    74.36     9.84    13.68    10.39    49.21    18.47P    0.67R    0.02  
Bromley            10   22   +7       6.05    90.64     3.58    74.14    10.24    10.94    11.19    48.21    19.13P    0.90R    0.02  
Maidenhead         10   17   +7       3.84    80.71     7.85    62.01     9.86     0.26     0.92    10.99     2.75P   11.10R    0.80  
Stockport          10   17   +2       5.02    86.44     4.74    60.60    10.63    -6.78     1.03    10.16     2.68P   16.59R    1.61  
Yeovil             10   16   +4      -1.25    38.80    -1.22    79.20    10.24    24.67    23.91    68.63    39.06P    0.27R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     10   16   +1       1.83    65.72     0.31    66.89    10.13     3.16     2.91    22.93     7.41P    4.82R    0.30  
Torquay            10   15   +0       3.42    77.57     3.67    56.74    10.71   -12.87     0.43     5.43     1.37P   27.62R    4.13  
Hartlepool         10   15   +0       1.36    62.33     0.14    61.46     9.90    -4.69     0.84     9.92     2.70P   12.56R    0.89  
Dag_&_Red          10   15   -1       1.77    65.95    -0.26    64.65     9.95    -0.62     1.68    16.17     4.53P    7.33R    0.51  
Solihull_Moors      9   14   +6      -0.95    41.02     2.01    73.14    10.35    18.69     9.94    46.38    20.05P    1.33R    0.05  
Barnet              8   13   +2       1.56    65.61     1.22    70.54    10.35    10.19     6.26    35.42    13.48P    2.43R    0.15  
Eastleigh          10   12   -2      -0.53    46.27    -0.19    60.14     9.89    -4.00     0.50     8.00     1.98P   15.13R    1.47  
Notts_County       10   11   +2      -6.20     8.78    -3.42    73.89    10.58    22.76    11.86    49.85    24.93P    1.37R    0.05  
Boreham_Wood       10   11   +1      -2.88    26.74     0.77    57.84     9.90    -2.82     0.35     5.50     1.46P   20.92R    2.05  
Sutton_United      10   11   -2      -2.23    31.40    -1.30    57.89     9.96    -5.77     0.39     5.48     1.50P   21.42R    2.03  
Harrogate_Town     10   11   -3      -3.41    22.95    -3.94    61.69    10.17    -1.42     0.97    11.28     3.39P   12.72R    1.02  
Wrexham             9   10   -2      -3.22    22.67    -3.36    65.17    10.10     4.74     2.00    18.48     6.41P    6.70R    0.44  
Barrow             10   10   -4      -2.61    28.46    -2.39    55.91     9.91    -9.31     0.16     3.55     0.89P   27.30R    3.67  
AFC_Fylde           9   10   -5      -4.44    15.01    -8.19    65.66    10.25     2.31     2.26    20.11     6.99P    6.48R    0.37  
Aldershot           9    8   -4      -2.14    31.26    -0.83    50.10     9.60   -16.37     0.02     0.89     0.18P   50.45R    9.93  
Chorley            10    7  -13      -1.28    40.63    -3.66    37.66     9.63   -44.02     0.00     0.04     0.01P   89.58R   61.50  
Ebbsfleet_United   10    6   -9      -6.46     6.68    -6.98    55.27    10.05    -9.29     0.18     3.34     0.88P   30.04R    4.27  
Chesterfield       10    5   -6      -8.85     2.02    -6.16    54.77    10.00    -5.62     0.12     3.04     0.83P   30.86R    4.67