Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 11 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2019, Arsenal 2 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         4   12   +9       2.60    85.73     1.79    86.50     8.42    57.17    32.99    84.20    94.89    98.19    99.75     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          4   10  +11       0.30    54.03     3.22    91.04     7.66    75.37    64.16    94.21    98.65    99.63    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         4    8   +3       1.92    75.89     2.12    55.63     9.46     3.34     0.04     0.50     4.20    10.90    32.86     1.46R    0.19  
Crystal_Palace    4    7   +1       1.48    71.74     0.96    50.06     9.17    -5.57     0.01     0.10     1.11     3.46    14.38     4.73R    0.79  
Arsenal           4    7   +0       1.15    68.36    -0.38    66.65     9.67    21.00     0.89     5.73    27.23    48.49    76.75     0.11R    0.01  
Everton           4    7   +0       0.54    57.96    -1.45    52.96     9.27    -2.21     0.02     0.28     2.18     6.45    22.57     2.53R    0.38  
West_Ham          4    7   -1       1.75    76.01    -0.25    48.81     9.38   -10.68     0.00     0.07     0.98     3.11    12.46     6.77R    1.14  
Man_Utd           4    5   +3      -2.03    23.55     0.68    63.69     9.33    21.62     0.35     3.23    17.64    35.97    68.05     0.14R    0.01  
Tottenham         4    5   +1      -1.59    26.02    -0.70    69.57     9.21    29.50     1.35     9.57    39.82    62.43    86.17     0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         4    5   +0       0.81    64.46     2.07    40.56     9.44   -19.91     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.46     2.69    27.49R    8.44  
Chelsea           4    5   -3      -2.06    22.36    -5.50    61.41     9.51    11.63     0.20     2.02    12.06    26.32    57.67     0.31R    0.04  
Burnley           4    4   -1       0.16    56.16     1.82    42.79     9.03   -14.55     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.61     3.64    18.35R    4.64  
Southampton       4    4   -2      -0.00    53.21     0.47    42.27     8.98   -16.93     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.55     3.27    19.84R    4.89  
Newcastle         4    4   -2      -0.89    38.96    -1.09    45.10     8.86   -10.72     0.00     0.02     0.21     0.90     5.59    11.50R    2.26  
Bournemouth       4    4   -3      -0.39    47.23    -0.55    43.09     9.32   -18.49     0.00     0.02     0.25     0.83     4.20    18.72R    4.81  
Brighton          4    4   -3       0.02    53.12     0.03    37.59     8.60   -23.75     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.92    37.36R   12.04  
Wolverhampton     4    3   -1      -1.85    24.61    -0.12    45.51     9.05    -8.36     0.00     0.02     0.27     1.19     6.35    11.29R    2.38  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -2      -0.79    39.02     0.93    35.97     9.38   -27.55     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.15     1.04    45.91R   19.03  
Norwich           4    3   -4      -0.15    48.89     1.05    35.50     9.54   -33.07     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.17     0.98    48.73R   21.52  
Watford           4    1   -6      -3.90     7.06    -5.09    36.02     8.92   -27.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.70    44.74R   17.43  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Birmingham 2 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Swansea          6   16   +8       6.44    97.66     5.96    80.40    10.88    22.24    22.65    39.00    75.33    48.49P    0.11R    0.02  
Charlton         6   14   +6       5.63    95.22     5.74    67.00    11.31     3.29     3.33     7.55    29.62    11.95P    3.72R    0.72  
Leeds_United     6   13   +7       3.31    83.01     4.85    79.42    10.79    24.37    19.59    35.95    73.19    46.61P    0.12R    0.00  
West_Brom        6   12   +3       1.60    66.88    -0.39    79.72    10.95    22.81    21.07    36.87    73.47    47.57P    0.16R    0.02  
Bristol_City     6   11   +3       2.34    75.80     2.35    69.99    10.94     9.04     4.84    11.06    39.60    17.69P    1.64R    0.25  
Fulham           6   10   +5       0.16    51.44     2.58    72.12    11.79    15.96     8.66    17.54    48.11    25.67P    1.52R    0.33  
Preston          6   10   +4       1.05    62.43     2.96    68.51    10.98     9.24     3.67     9.00    34.72    15.06P    2.37R    0.40  
QPR              6   10   +0       2.65    78.94     1.46    56.60    10.65   -13.59     0.30     0.92     7.03     1.95P   17.78R    4.59  
Birmingham       6   10   -2       2.69    79.66    -0.61    59.87    10.47    -9.31     0.47     1.47    10.76     3.32P   10.60R    2.50  
Nott'm_Forest    6    9   +3       1.10    63.12     3.51    66.84    10.73     7.52     2.39     6.40    28.85    11.75P    3.00R    0.58  
Sheff_Wed        6    9   +2       0.03    50.50     0.87    63.22    10.64     1.06     1.23     3.41    18.79     7.02P    5.68R    1.11  
Millwall         6    9   -2       2.23    75.87     0.17    57.98    10.32   -10.07     0.31     0.94     7.71     2.25P   13.88R    3.35  
Cardiff          6    8   -2      -1.13    37.77    -3.37    64.55    11.47     0.57     2.22     5.43    23.55    10.11P    5.65R    1.18  
Brentford        6    7   +1      -1.79    30.13     0.10    68.05    10.79    10.19     3.27     7.93    33.42    14.73P    2.48R    0.40  
Luton            6    7   +0      -0.70    43.23     0.92    59.01    11.80    -5.40     0.86     2.35    12.78     4.70P   14.69R    4.20  
Reading          6    7   +0      -0.04    50.96     1.91    53.71    10.40   -12.43     0.11     0.40     3.93     1.04P   24.72R    7.40  
Blackburn        6    7   -2      -0.26    48.28    -0.37    59.81    10.73    -5.22     0.63     1.72    11.56     3.79P   11.05R    2.63  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -1      -3.09    17.79    -2.27    65.23    10.38     5.84     1.68     4.40    23.46     9.75P    3.60R    0.66  
Derby            6    6   -3      -2.60    22.68    -3.56    66.36    10.79     5.26     2.18     5.84    27.58    11.54P    3.50R    0.62  
Hull             6    5   -3      -2.81    20.64    -2.25    57.15    10.92    -7.99     0.31     1.05     8.13     2.63P   16.79R    4.71  
Barnsley         6    5   -5      -2.46    24.43    -3.92    52.58    10.94   -15.87     0.13     0.42     3.73     1.11P   29.75R   10.45  
Wigan            6    4   -7      -2.93    18.78    -5.15    51.06    10.27   -18.59     0.06     0.17     2.15     0.57P   33.70R   11.72  
Huddersfield     6    1   -6      -5.83     2.51    -3.99    45.51    10.65   -20.78     0.01     0.06     0.96     0.27P   54.59R   27.18  
Stoke            6    1   -9      -6.19     1.93    -7.51    49.58    10.32   -18.13     0.03     0.12     1.57     0.41P   38.89R   14.96  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Bristol_Rovers 3 3 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wycombe               7   15   +6       4.32    88.05     4.31    62.02    10.08    -0.90     0.86     2.64    17.91     5.29P    4.28R    0.07  
Coventry              7   15   +5       4.29    87.95     3.42    66.89     9.98     6.64     2.37     6.36    32.26    11.62P    1.39R    0.02  
Ipswich               6   14  +10       3.63    86.43     6.76    82.14    10.88    35.48    32.16    50.99    84.04    61.08P    0.07R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        7   13   +3       2.11    71.67     1.11    68.21    10.12     9.62     3.24     8.33    37.70    14.91P    1.12R    0.02  
Lincoln_City          7   12   +6       2.28    73.07     5.89    62.85    10.68     5.64     1.48     4.00    21.76     7.78P    4.27R    0.09  
Blackpool             7   12   +4       1.80    68.54     3.09    66.33     9.84     9.26     1.92     5.42    30.67    10.92P    1.51R    0.00  
Doncaster             5   11   +3       2.40    77.52     0.29    71.90    10.78    14.42     7.54    16.52    51.87    25.24P    0.64R    0.01  
Sunderland            6   11   +1       0.69    58.08    -2.33    80.59    10.22    29.05    24.32    43.66    81.49    55.98P    0.03R    0.00  
Peterborough          6   10   +6       0.54    56.03     4.11    73.38    10.63    24.08     8.96    19.99    58.73    30.42P    0.41R    0.01  
Burton_Albion         6   10   +3       0.98    61.45     1.83    70.39    10.31    15.64     4.88    12.28    46.69    21.12P    0.74R    0.02  
Rochdale              6    9   +3       1.59    68.27     4.37    56.38    10.40    -5.97     0.30     0.97     8.29     2.13P   12.81R    0.51  
MK_Dons               6    9   -3       1.23    64.23    -2.13    52.30    10.82   -18.95     0.15     0.47     4.56     1.19P   24.84R    1.64  
Bristol_Rovers        7    8   -2      -1.83    31.25    -2.40    55.83     9.89    -6.79     0.16     0.60     6.32     1.75P   12.68R    0.49  
Shrewsbury            6    8   -2       0.14    52.98    -1.48    59.69    10.09    -2.54     0.48     1.44    12.66     3.80P    6.68R    0.19  
Rotherham             5    7   -1      -0.48    44.59    -1.98    66.36    11.59     7.82     3.54     8.64    33.62    15.03P    3.24R    0.09  
Gillingham            6    6   +3      -2.41    23.77     2.86    57.45    10.58     0.84     0.45     1.26    10.52     3.18P   10.95R    0.31  
Tranmere              6    5   +0      -1.69    31.60     2.88    44.53    10.39   -21.76     0.02     0.05     0.93     0.19P   51.56R    5.74  
Portsmouth            5    5   +0      -2.80    17.88    -1.55    71.27    10.87    20.29     6.97    15.65    51.03    26.02P    0.82R    0.01  
Accrington_Stanley    6    5   -4      -1.93    29.40    -1.88    48.94    10.14   -18.59     0.03     0.11     1.82     0.41P   34.14R    2.71  
Oxford_Utd            7    5   -5      -2.97    21.25    -2.11    55.49    10.22    -6.54     0.17     0.59     6.47     1.79P   14.80R    0.60  
AFC_Wimbledon         7    2   -6      -5.24     4.94    -2.10    43.76     9.48   -19.76     0.01     0.01     0.38     0.08P   53.98R    5.71  
Southend              6    0  -13      -6.41     0.82    -9.91    41.74     9.90   -31.87     0.00     0.01     0.26     0.07P   63.13R    9.45  
Bolton                5  -11  -17      -3.42    11.14   -13.05    25.71    10.15   -45.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.89R   72.30  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Bradford 2 1 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            7   17   +6       5.90    95.01     3.77    79.61    10.25    19.47    21.86    50.58    79.97    58.32P    0.03R    0.01  
Newport_County    7   15   +5       5.43    93.29     4.88    70.92    10.18     9.12     5.35    19.76    50.29    26.59P    0.41R    0.08  
Crewe             7   15   +2       5.96    94.56     2.73    70.77    10.41     5.59     5.38    19.69    49.51    25.98P    0.51R    0.15  
Swindon           7   14   +6       2.95    78.81     3.80    74.46    10.53    16.47    10.97    32.39    63.86    40.39P    0.19R    0.05  
Forest_Green      7   13   +1       3.18    80.90     0.54    69.66    10.36     6.04     4.59    16.97    45.11    23.43P    0.59R    0.17  
Cheltenham        7   11   +5       0.84    59.47     4.18    62.41    10.30     2.07     1.18     5.60    21.63     8.81P    2.99R    1.00  
Grimsby           7   11   +4       2.14    72.97     4.89    60.95    10.13    -0.52     0.69     3.87    17.25     6.50P    3.98R    1.47  
Plymouth          7   11   +4      -0.87    40.86     0.53    77.75    11.19    24.14    19.94    45.23    74.06    53.93P    0.16R    0.04  
Macclesfield      7   11   +3       2.71    78.25     4.87    52.87     9.76   -13.42     0.08     0.60     4.01     1.12P   15.90R    7.34  
Bradford          7   11   +3      -0.69    42.69    -0.03    75.28    10.89    19.00    13.29    35.73    66.64    44.95P    0.21R    0.07  
Crawley_Town      7   11   +2       1.57    67.32     2.29    57.96    10.15    -7.46     0.34     2.31    11.07     3.91P    7.15R    2.89  
Mansfield         7    9   +2      -2.92    20.93    -1.44    72.79    10.26    17.18     7.90    26.66    58.95    36.70P    0.22R    0.06  
Colchester        7    9   +0      -1.27    36.90    -1.00    66.86    10.27     6.87     2.59    11.23    35.74    17.59P    1.11R    0.36  
Port_Vale         7    9   -2       0.55    57.38    -0.63    54.87     9.89   -11.90     0.14     0.97     6.12     1.94P   11.90R    5.19  
Salford_City      7    8   +0       0.24    54.81     3.01    47.27    10.39   -22.01     0.04     0.25     1.84     0.53P   35.88R   21.19  
Cambridge_Utd     7    8   -1       0.06    52.44     1.11    53.98     9.85   -10.68     0.09     0.73     5.17     1.51P   13.62R    6.19  
Leyton_Orient     7    8   -4       0.23    54.51    -1.31    47.45    10.18   -24.84     0.03     0.20     1.64     0.40P   35.59R   20.43  
Northampton       7    7   -1      -2.22    27.40    -0.49    63.43    10.44     3.59     1.31     6.71    24.51    11.08P    2.70R    0.99  
Carlisle          7    7   -5      -2.40    26.36    -4.69    60.03    10.38    -5.71     0.67     3.42    15.55     6.10P    5.49R    2.14  
Morecambe         7    6   -4      -2.13    27.99    -1.80    49.52     9.97   -18.67     0.05     0.29     2.24     0.64P   26.93R   14.21  
Walsall           7    6   -5      -3.64    16.05    -5.16    64.62    10.81     3.00     1.98     8.72    28.73    14.36P    2.61R    0.96  
Oldham            7    5   -5      -3.99    13.56    -4.16    62.13    10.44     0.62     1.00     5.07    20.78     8.99P    3.71R    1.50  
Stevenage         7    3   -6      -6.00     3.72    -5.26    52.93    10.20   -10.67     0.09     0.68     4.91     1.67P   16.46R    7.74  
Scunthorpe        7    1  -10      -9.03     0.38   -10.63    56.31    11.09    -7.26     0.44     2.31    10.43     4.56P   11.68R    5.75  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Aldershot 1 2 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking             10   23  +10       8.76    96.84     9.22    73.64    11.01    11.99    11.95    46.54    19.05P    1.65R    0.07  
Halifax            10   22   +9       7.97    96.41     8.43    74.53     9.92    13.87    11.06    50.09    19.19P    0.76R    0.03  
Bromley            10   22   +7       6.05    90.64     3.56    74.34    10.21    11.19    11.81    48.84    19.61P    0.92R    0.01  
Maidenhead         10   17   +7       3.76    80.21     7.74    62.29     9.84     0.64     1.06    11.87     3.06P   10.45R    0.72  
Stockport          10   17   +2       4.97    86.14     4.61    60.78    10.70    -6.42     1.20    10.68     2.96P   16.44R    1.45  
Yeovil             10   16   +4      -1.05    40.51    -0.94    78.49    10.38    23.66    22.41    66.11    37.08P    0.39R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     10   16   +1       1.89    66.39     0.41    66.60     9.95     2.70     2.57    21.63     6.67P    4.93R    0.29  
Torquay            10   15   +0       3.38    77.18     3.57    57.01    10.80   -12.45     0.53     6.13     1.57P   27.07R    3.96  
Hartlepool         10   15   +0       1.30    62.00     0.07    61.68     9.90    -4.34     0.82    10.43     2.77P   12.34R    0.90  
Dag_&_Red          10   15   -1       1.74    65.34    -0.30    64.51     9.89    -0.79     1.53    15.91     4.45P    7.29R    0.51  
Solihull_Moors      9   14   +6      -0.93    41.16     2.01    73.06    10.30    18.57     9.94    46.12    20.08P    1.44R    0.04  
Barnet              8   13   +2       1.59    65.88     1.27    70.34    10.37     9.90     5.99    34.75    13.11P    2.50R    0.16  
Eastleigh          10   12   -2      -0.53    46.25    -0.14    59.91    10.00    -4.34     0.57     8.01     2.16P   16.08R    1.60  
Notts_County       10   11   +2      -6.27     8.42    -3.51    74.12    10.38    23.06    11.89    50.91    25.44P    1.13R    0.05  
Boreham_Wood       10   11   +1      -2.86    26.63     0.81    57.78     9.83    -2.89     0.36     5.47     1.46P   20.94R    2.01  
Sutton_United      10   11   -2      -2.25    31.09    -1.33    57.82     9.90    -5.92     0.32     5.31     1.34P   21.58R    2.20  
Harrogate_Town     10   11   -3      -3.33    23.54    -3.83    61.53    10.17    -1.68     0.98    10.86     3.31P   12.98R    1.02  
Wrexham             9   10   -2      -3.23    22.33    -3.36    65.28    10.06     4.88     2.00    18.79     6.34P    6.51R    0.49  
Barrow             10   10   -4      -2.61    28.52    -2.40    55.83     9.77    -9.46     0.19     3.40     0.81P   27.83R    3.56  
AFC_Fylde           9   10   -5      -4.43    15.15    -8.16    65.77    10.28     2.52     2.42    20.34     7.36P    6.62R    0.38  
Aldershot           9    8   -4      -2.13    31.30    -0.83    50.01     9.57   -16.44     0.04     0.86     0.17P   50.68R   10.16  
Chorley            10    7  -13      -1.26    40.72    -3.63    37.73     9.58   -43.89     0.00     0.05     0.01P   89.50R   61.64  
Ebbsfleet_United   10    6   -9      -6.49     6.59    -7.04    55.35    10.03    -9.15     0.18     3.48     0.97P   29.79R    4.22  
Chesterfield       10    5   -6      -8.88     1.96    -6.21    55.05    10.07    -5.21     0.18     3.41     1.03P   30.18R    4.50