Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 10 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2019, Arsenal 2 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         4   12   +9       2.62    85.87     1.81    86.50     8.43    57.20    32.98    84.38    94.98    98.21    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          4   10  +11       0.31    54.05     3.25    91.02     7.67    75.37    64.27    94.34    98.53    99.62    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         4    8   +3       1.94    76.21     2.16    55.46     9.37     3.04     0.04     0.50     3.93    10.61    32.15     1.39R    0.18  
Crystal_Palace    4    7   +1       1.51    72.24     0.99    49.89     9.13    -5.85     0.01     0.10     1.07     3.34    13.92     4.84R    0.79  
Arsenal           4    7   +0       1.15    68.21    -0.36    66.46     9.64    20.65     0.75     5.35    26.29    47.96    76.51     0.11R    0.00  
Everton           4    7   +0       0.54    58.17    -1.46    52.91     9.24    -2.28     0.01     0.22     2.20     6.47    22.55     2.51R    0.32  
West_Ham          4    7   -1       1.76    76.06    -0.26    49.19     9.33   -10.13     0.00     0.09     1.03     3.23    13.07     6.16R    1.07  
Man_Utd           4    5   +3      -2.09    22.94     0.61    63.91     9.42    22.01     0.40     3.42    18.36    37.25    69.12     0.17R    0.02  
Tottenham         4    5   +1      -1.62    25.38    -0.77    69.62     9.19    29.58     1.30     9.61    40.72    62.71    86.05     0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         4    5   +0       0.78    63.77     2.05    40.67     9.39   -19.71     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.48     2.74    27.04R    8.18  
Chelsea           4    5   -3      -2.04    22.57    -5.48    61.25     9.41    11.38     0.23     1.90    11.69    25.70    57.32     0.33R    0.03  
Burnley           4    4   -1       0.17    56.31     1.86    42.55     8.97   -15.01     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.53     3.46    19.18R    4.82  
Southampton       4    4   -2      -0.03    52.73     0.42    42.50     9.01   -16.53     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.59     3.46    19.54R    4.99  
Newcastle         4    4   -2      -0.86    39.48    -1.02    45.18     8.86   -10.68     0.00     0.02     0.23     0.90     5.60    11.50R    2.26  
Bournemouth       4    4   -3      -0.42    46.72    -0.60    42.99     9.33   -18.72     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.73     4.22    18.96R    5.09  
Brighton          4    4   -3       0.05    53.70     0.06    37.66     8.61   -23.63     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.99    37.43R   12.00  
Wolverhampton     4    3   -1      -1.82    24.94    -0.09    45.21     9.14    -8.87     0.00     0.02     0.31     1.12     6.19    12.32R    2.72  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -2      -0.77    39.37     0.99    35.66     9.35   -28.16     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.93    47.64R   20.38  
Norwich           4    3   -4      -0.18    48.49     1.00    35.80     9.52   -32.52     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.15     1.08    47.58R   20.91  
Watford           4    1   -6      -3.92     6.74    -5.14    36.42     8.92   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.14     0.86    43.26R   16.25  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Birmingham 2 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Swansea          6   16   +8       6.39    97.53     5.90    80.61    10.82    22.55    22.85    39.75    75.89    49.05P    0.12R    0.01  
Charlton         6   14   +6       5.58    94.89     5.69    67.42    11.26     3.83     3.57     8.03    30.78    12.66P    3.13R    0.55  
Leeds_United     6   13   +7       3.37    83.64     4.92    79.08    10.76    23.85    18.91    34.51    72.18    45.12P    0.18R    0.02  
West_Brom        6   12   +3       1.55    66.31    -0.45    79.68    10.98    22.80    21.48    36.96    73.10    47.63P    0.16R    0.01  
Bristol_City     6   11   +3       2.39    75.92     2.40    69.91    10.98     8.89     4.73    10.65    39.43    17.34P    1.87R    0.30  
Fulham           6   10   +5       0.09    50.78     2.49    72.46    11.77    16.39     8.91    18.03    49.24    26.60P    1.49R    0.24  
Preston          6   10   +4       1.08    62.49     2.99    68.27    11.09     8.90     3.54     8.75    34.29    14.83P    2.63R    0.46  
QPR              6   10   +0       2.66    78.99     1.46    56.69    10.68   -13.38     0.31     0.89     7.09     1.98P   17.67R    4.80  
Birmingham       6   10   -2       2.64    79.16    -0.68    60.09    10.51    -9.01     0.55     1.64    11.05     3.45P   10.15R    2.36  
Nott'm_Forest    6    9   +3       1.11    63.00     3.53    66.66    10.72     7.22     2.26     6.09    28.43    11.15P    3.14R    0.55  
Sheff_Wed        6    9   +2      -0.00    49.92     0.84    63.17    10.80     0.93     1.31     3.45    18.84     7.01P    6.05R    1.28  
Millwall         6    9   -2       2.32    76.67     0.25    57.67    10.31   -10.48     0.25     0.84     7.41     2.05P   14.72R    3.69  
Cardiff          6    8   -2      -1.12    38.09    -3.32    64.33    11.44     0.23     2.05     5.19    22.94     9.87P    5.91R    1.14  
Brentford        6    7   +1      -1.75    30.78     0.14    67.98    10.99    10.06     3.41     8.51    33.14    15.03P    2.59R    0.47  
Luton            6    7   +0      -0.70    43.08     0.92    59.02    11.67    -5.38     0.85     2.29    12.49     4.57P   14.36R    3.95  
Reading          6    7   +0      -0.06    50.92     1.89    53.75    10.45   -12.42     0.14     0.44     4.11     1.12P   24.65R    7.54  
Blackburn        6    7   -2      -0.24    48.42    -0.37    59.89    10.74    -5.10     0.55     1.73    11.63     3.77P   10.75R    2.74  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -1      -3.13    17.57    -2.31    65.55    10.45     6.33     1.79     4.89    24.36    10.30P    3.40R    0.61  
Derby            6    6   -3      -2.58    22.84    -3.52    66.16    10.77     4.93     1.96     5.45    26.91    11.47P    3.58R    0.66  
Hull             6    5   -3      -2.82    20.84    -2.25    57.21    10.87    -7.78     0.31     1.11     8.33     2.67P   16.39R    4.55  
Barnsley         6    5   -5      -2.39    25.00    -3.82    52.43    10.96   -16.12     0.16     0.47     3.74     1.16P   30.43R   10.58  
Wigan            6    4   -7      -2.91    19.12    -5.13    50.88    10.29   -18.81     0.04     0.13     2.07     0.48P   34.37R   12.18  
Huddersfield     6    1   -6      -5.86     2.50    -4.03    45.74    10.67   -20.38     0.02     0.09     1.03     0.29P   53.65R   26.49  
Stoke            6    1   -9      -6.20     1.83    -7.54    49.59    10.27   -18.07     0.03     0.13     1.53     0.41P   38.63R   14.82  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Bristol_Rovers 3 3 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wycombe               7   15   +6       4.34    88.12     4.36    62.03    10.18    -0.85     1.04     2.94    18.13     5.65P    4.39R    0.06  
Coventry              7   15   +5       4.34    88.00     3.47    66.80     9.97     6.40     2.33     6.18    32.33    11.46P    1.44R    0.02  
Ipswich               6   14  +10       3.66    86.40     6.80    82.21    11.06    35.58    32.33    51.13    83.89    60.94P    0.06R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        7   13   +3       2.06    71.26     1.06    68.31    10.14     9.80     3.27     8.42    38.15    15.24P    1.11R    0.01  
Lincoln_City          7   12   +6       2.30    73.34     5.96    62.60    10.55     5.26     1.29     3.64    20.91     7.19P    4.33R    0.10  
Blackpool             7   12   +4       1.85    69.05     3.16    66.08     9.98     8.92     2.00     5.66    30.42    11.29P    1.62R    0.02  
Doncaster             5   11   +3       2.36    76.97     0.21    72.26    10.84    15.01     7.93    17.24    53.36    26.13P    0.65R    0.01  
Sunderland            6   11   +1       0.68    57.95    -2.33    80.61    10.27    29.12    24.59    44.27    81.60    56.28P    0.06R    0.00  
Peterborough          6   10   +6       0.56    56.37     4.18    73.06    10.56    23.55     8.42    19.16    57.78    29.41P    0.41R    0.00  
Burton_Albion         6   10   +3       0.99    61.61     1.85    70.37    10.36    15.64     5.29    12.50    46.82    21.44P    0.74R    0.01  
Rochdale              6    9   +3       1.58    68.10     4.36    56.50    10.32    -5.71     0.27     0.88     8.35     2.13P   12.54R    0.48  
MK_Dons               6    9   -3       1.24    64.24    -2.12    52.19    10.74   -19.03     0.16     0.48     4.29     1.21P   25.19R    1.74  
Bristol_Rovers        7    8   -2      -1.85    31.23    -2.42    55.80     9.93    -6.90     0.15     0.63     6.54     1.91P   12.92R    0.47  
Shrewsbury            6    8   -2       0.08    52.23    -1.57    59.91    10.08    -2.22     0.46     1.56    13.29     3.91P    6.71R    0.19  
Rotherham             5    7   -1      -0.46    45.00    -1.92    66.08    11.60     7.38     3.58     8.33    32.88    14.50P    3.30R    0.12  
Gillingham            6    6   +3      -2.40    23.72     2.83    57.74    10.50     1.38     0.45     1.33    10.66     3.25P   10.52R    0.34  
Tranmere              6    5   +0      -1.71    31.48     2.83    44.79    10.39   -21.35     0.01     0.06     0.92     0.22P   50.56R    5.71  
Portsmouth            5    5   +0      -2.79    18.14    -1.47    70.95    10.77    19.75     6.20    14.81    49.88    25.23P    0.88R    0.02  
Accrington_Stanley    6    5   -4      -1.90    29.67    -1.87    48.91    10.16   -18.55     0.04     0.13     1.95     0.46P   34.57R    2.56  
Oxford_Utd            7    5   -5      -3.01    20.93    -2.22    55.60    10.33    -6.26     0.18     0.64     7.16     2.01P   14.62R    0.66  
AFC_Wimbledon         7    2   -6      -5.24     5.00    -2.13    43.67     9.55   -19.89     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.08P   54.35R    6.05  
Southend              6    0  -13      -6.43     0.78    -9.93    41.64    10.05   -32.15     0.00     0.01     0.32     0.06P   63.37R    9.87  
Bolton                5  -11  -17      -3.45    11.08   -13.09    25.95    10.16   -44.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    95.67R   71.54  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Bradford 2 1 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            7   17   +6       5.86    95.07     3.74    79.63    10.24    19.54    22.05    50.69    80.35    58.32P    0.02R    0.01  
Newport_County    7   15   +5       5.45    93.33     4.89    70.90    10.24     9.10     5.39    19.74    50.43    26.53P    0.42R    0.12  
Crewe             7   15   +2       5.98    94.62     2.77    70.45    10.52     5.10     5.32    19.10    48.01    24.95P    0.62R    0.23  
Swindon           7   14   +6       3.01    79.35     3.90    74.24    10.54    16.13    10.97    31.59    63.26    39.58P    0.17R    0.04  
Forest_Green      7   13   +1       3.17    80.94     0.55    69.61    10.30     6.01     4.39    16.74    44.96    23.14P    0.62R    0.23  
Cheltenham        7   11   +5       0.86    59.59     4.18    62.64    10.33     2.32     1.23     6.02    22.48     9.46P    2.95R    1.14  
Grimsby           7   11   +4       2.13    73.03     4.88    61.10    10.19    -0.35     0.70     4.21    17.68     6.83P    3.91R    1.52  
Plymouth          7   11   +4      -0.80    41.49     0.62    77.69    11.22    24.08    19.74    44.95    74.06    53.92P    0.15R    0.04  
Macclesfield      7   11   +3       2.72    78.30     4.88    52.97     9.73   -13.33     0.08     0.67     4.20     1.23P   15.72R    6.96  
Bradford          7   11   +3      -0.63    43.21     0.06    74.98    10.85    18.61    13.04    35.09    65.98    44.39P    0.22R    0.05  
Crawley_Town      7   11   +2       1.57    67.10     2.30    58.05    10.10    -7.29     0.36     2.33    11.10     4.02P    7.01R    2.75  
Mansfield         7    9   +2      -2.87    21.19    -1.38    72.79    10.23    17.05     7.88    26.63    59.15    36.62P    0.21R    0.05  
Colchester        7    9   +0      -1.27    36.89    -1.02    66.87    10.33     6.89     2.78    11.72    35.78    17.83P    1.19R    0.40  
Port_Vale         7    9   -2       0.51    57.09    -0.68    55.01     9.88   -11.70     0.16     0.99     6.20     1.97P   11.79R    5.10  
Salford_City      7    8   +0       0.28    55.20     3.06    47.23    10.39   -22.07     0.07     0.31     1.93     0.57P   36.57R   21.50  
Cambridge_Utd     7    8   -1       0.06    52.56     1.10    54.00     9.87   -10.70     0.10     0.77     5.25     1.61P   13.95R    6.42  
Leyton_Orient     7    8   -4       0.14    53.47    -1.43    47.76    10.22   -24.32     0.03     0.25     1.87     0.52P   34.52R   19.85  
Northampton       7    7   -1      -2.25    26.97    -0.54    63.43    10.44     3.53     1.29     6.84    24.83    11.28P    2.81R    1.05  
Carlisle          7    7   -5      -2.39    26.15    -4.69    59.81    10.51    -6.03     0.71     3.57    15.27     6.27P    5.92R    2.34  
Morecambe         7    6   -4      -2.15    27.99    -1.86    49.61     9.97   -18.47     0.05     0.29     2.34     0.71P   26.69R   14.16  
Walsall           7    6   -5      -3.66    16.12    -5.21    64.76    10.87     3.20     2.15     9.29    29.05    14.98P    2.47R    0.93  
Oldham            7    5   -5      -4.02    13.38    -4.19    61.99    10.54     0.48     1.00     5.28    20.70     9.15P    4.01R    1.58  
Stevenage         7    3   -6      -6.11     3.68    -5.39    53.17    10.21   -10.26     0.10     0.77     5.01     1.76P   16.01R    7.72  
Scunthorpe        7    1  -10      -8.98     0.38   -10.55    56.12    11.05    -7.55     0.43     2.15    10.11     4.39P   12.05R    5.81  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Aldershot 1 2 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking             10   23  +10       8.58    96.73     8.99    74.17    10.98    12.81    13.03    48.59    20.39P    1.32R    0.05  
Halifax            10   22   +9       7.98    96.31     8.47    74.45     9.77    13.79    10.56    49.75    19.03P    0.61R    0.02  
Bromley            10   22   +7       6.10    90.95     3.65    74.02    10.19    10.69    10.87    47.91    18.57P    0.99R    0.03  
Maidenhead         10   17   +7       3.84    80.59     7.86    61.99     9.83     0.17     0.94    11.11     2.69P   11.06R    0.77  
Stockport          10   17   +2       4.99    86.39     4.68    60.71    10.69    -6.56     1.16    10.66     2.88P   16.30R    1.48  
Yeovil             10   16   +4      -1.22    38.81    -1.17    79.01    10.32    24.43    23.71    68.12    38.62P    0.30R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     10   16   +1       1.83    65.89     0.35    66.73    10.02     2.84     2.79    22.37     7.10P    4.84R    0.23  
Torquay            10   15   +0       3.36    77.01     3.57    56.93    10.76   -12.62     0.45     5.94     1.46P   27.20R    4.17  
Hartlepool         10   15   +0       1.40    62.63     0.19    61.50     9.82    -4.67     0.78     9.79     2.56P   12.59R    0.94  
Dag_&_Red          10   15   -1       1.73    65.45    -0.33    64.72     9.93    -0.51     1.61    16.51     4.81P    7.33R    0.50  
Solihull_Moors      9   14   +6      -0.93    41.25     2.05    73.08    10.25    18.58     9.74    46.09    19.81P    1.27R    0.03  
Barnet              8   13   +2       1.66    66.35     1.35    70.04    10.30     9.51     5.56    33.70    12.47P    2.70R    0.14  
Eastleigh          10   12   -2      -0.60    45.77    -0.26    60.16     9.95    -3.94     0.63     8.19     2.21P   15.52R    1.45  
Notts_County       10   11   +2      -6.22     8.68    -3.43    74.00    10.50    22.94    11.73    50.44    25.22P    1.29R    0.02  
Boreham_Wood       10   11   +1      -2.74    27.53     0.95    57.59     9.79    -3.25     0.33     5.25     1.42P   21.51R    2.25  
Sutton_United      10   11   -2      -2.20    31.67    -1.23    57.65     9.86    -6.17     0.30     5.15     1.28P   21.93R    2.31  
Harrogate_Town     10   11   -3      -3.24    24.16    -3.70    61.43    10.11    -1.81     0.91    10.80     3.26P   13.05R    1.10  
Wrexham             9   10   -2      -3.22    22.35    -3.35    65.15    10.05     4.74     1.90    18.47     6.24P    6.74R    0.49  
Barrow             10   10   -4      -2.59    28.79    -2.39    55.93     9.84    -9.35     0.17     3.63     0.90P   27.50R    3.76  
AFC_Fylde           9   10   -5      -4.41    15.10    -8.14    65.72    10.29     2.44     2.45    19.96     7.02P    6.56R    0.42  
Aldershot           9    8   -4      -2.18    30.86    -0.90    50.12     9.61   -16.30     0.02     0.86     0.17P   50.27R    9.92  
Chorley            10    7  -13      -1.33    39.85    -3.83    37.79     9.55   -43.60     0.00     0.06     0.01P   89.59R   61.37  
Ebbsfleet_United   10    6   -9      -6.53     6.49    -7.09    55.52     9.99    -8.86     0.19     3.36     0.94P   29.07R    4.08  
Chesterfield       10    5   -6      -8.90     1.97    -6.28    54.94    10.02    -5.31     0.17     3.29     0.94P   30.44R    4.49