Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 9 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2019, Arsenal 2 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         4   12   +9       2.61    85.75     1.86    86.34     8.44    56.84    32.48    84.16    94.97    98.20    99.75     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          4   10  +11       0.31    54.23     3.20    91.05     7.65    75.43    64.85    94.49    98.72    99.62    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         4    8   +3       1.95    76.24     2.16    55.54     9.38     3.16     0.04     0.51     4.11    10.78    32.36     1.45R    0.18  
Crystal_Palace    4    7   +1       1.48    71.80     0.97    50.15     9.17    -5.42     0.00     0.09     1.10     3.66    14.79     4.62R    0.76  
Arsenal           4    7   +0       1.18    68.57    -0.34    66.22     9.71    20.19     0.81     5.57    25.97    46.99    75.16     0.11R    0.01  
Everton           4    7   +0       0.54    58.00    -1.46    53.04     9.29    -1.97     0.02     0.26     2.46     6.84    22.92     2.43R    0.34  
West_Ham          4    7   -1       1.71    75.34    -0.33    49.15     9.34   -10.17     0.01     0.11     1.04     3.25    13.08     6.18R    1.04  
Man_Utd           4    5   +3      -2.03    23.34     0.71    63.88     9.33    21.95     0.38     3.46    18.80    37.28    68.95     0.11R    0.02  
Tottenham         4    5   +1      -1.59    26.11    -0.70    69.32     9.29    29.11     1.23     9.21    39.11    61.71    85.31     0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         4    5   +0       0.79    64.12     2.03    40.73     9.43   -19.52     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.48     2.78    26.87R    8.26  
Chelsea           4    5   -3      -2.08    22.33    -5.54    61.48     9.40    11.82     0.18     2.05    12.37    26.57    57.95     0.28R    0.03  
Burnley           4    4   -1       0.16    56.21     1.82    42.67     9.03   -14.75     0.00     0.02     0.17     0.59     3.67    18.94R    4.55  
Southampton       4    4   -2      -0.03    52.72     0.40    42.49     9.05   -16.62     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.60     3.45    19.46R    5.01  
Newcastle         4    4   -2      -0.88    39.06    -1.05    45.08     8.88   -10.80     0.00     0.02     0.22     0.91     5.54    11.69R    2.25  
Bournemouth       4    4   -3      -0.38    47.44    -0.54    42.88     9.35   -18.87     0.00     0.02     0.24     0.86     4.22    19.22R    5.04  
Brighton          4    4   -3       0.07    54.16     0.11    37.44     8.62   -24.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.88    38.09R   12.40  
Wolverhampton     4    3   -1      -1.87    24.39    -0.14    45.63     9.07    -8.15     0.00     0.03     0.33     1.23     6.63    11.11R    2.46  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -2      -0.80    38.87     0.92    35.74     9.23   -27.96     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.86    47.01R   19.46  
Norwich           4    3   -4      -0.18    48.30     1.01    35.71     9.53   -32.68     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     1.02    47.79R   20.99  
Watford           4    1   -6      -3.88     7.01    -5.08    36.12     8.90   -27.59     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.72    44.61R   17.18  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Birmingham 2 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Swansea          6   16   +8       6.39    97.71     5.90    80.62    10.77    22.59    22.53    39.22    76.07    48.76P    0.10R    0.01  
Charlton         6   14   +6       5.60    94.88     5.72    67.03    11.18     3.34     3.14     7.41    29.77    12.02P    3.28R    0.59  
Leeds_United     6   13   +7       3.33    83.38     4.89    79.37    10.79    24.27    19.77    35.69    72.67    46.34P    0.12R    0.02  
West_Brom        6   12   +3       1.51    65.91    -0.50    79.85    10.96    23.05    21.67    37.91    73.69    48.47P    0.16R    0.02  
Bristol_City     6   11   +3       2.38    75.98     2.39    69.88    10.90     8.86     4.73    10.73    38.88    17.27P    1.65R    0.30  
Fulham           6   10   +5       0.13    51.25     2.56    72.31    11.73    16.20     8.65    17.67    49.09    26.29P    1.44R    0.26  
Preston          6   10   +4       1.07    62.54     2.99    68.20    11.04     8.75     3.54     8.63    33.79    14.62P    2.58R    0.37  
QPR              6   10   +0       2.67    79.09     1.46    56.52    10.64   -13.66     0.28     0.89     6.73     1.99P   17.93R    4.79  
Birmingham       6   10   -2       2.65    79.22    -0.65    60.02    10.60    -9.12     0.55     1.72    11.48     3.50P   10.56R    2.37  
Nott'm_Forest    6    9   +3       1.12    63.36     3.55    66.66    10.65     7.22     2.27     5.90    28.12    11.03P    3.11R    0.56  
Sheff_Wed        6    9   +2      -0.00    50.19     0.84    63.29    10.70     1.05     1.32     3.48    19.14     7.00P    5.75R    1.16  
Millwall         6    9   -2       2.29    76.51     0.22    57.58    10.29   -10.54     0.24     0.78     7.21     1.99P   14.60R    3.54  
Cardiff          6    8   -2      -1.18    37.41    -3.40    64.68    11.41     0.72     2.12     5.47    23.79    10.31P    5.52R    1.15  
Brentford        6    7   +1      -1.78    30.39     0.10    68.09    10.83    10.21     3.34     8.07    33.58    14.88P    2.52R    0.43  
Luton            6    7   +0      -0.64    43.72     0.98    58.88    11.77    -5.54     0.94     2.42    12.59     4.64P   14.74R    4.30  
Reading          6    7   +0      -0.01    51.37     1.93    53.80    10.35   -12.34     0.10     0.34     3.95     0.93P   24.36R    7.32  
Blackburn        6    7   -2      -0.21    48.88    -0.32    59.91    10.74    -5.08     0.56     1.71    11.66     3.78P   10.90R    2.71  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -1      -3.10    17.94    -2.28    65.29    10.32     5.94     1.55     4.27    23.57     9.64P    3.45R    0.58  
Derby            6    6   -3      -2.61    22.72    -3.56    66.34    10.78     5.15     2.13     5.82    27.53    11.55P    3.51R    0.68  
Hull             6    5   -3      -2.83    20.68    -2.27    57.18    10.84    -7.86     0.30     1.02     8.15     2.54P   16.35R    4.70  
Barnsley         6    5   -5      -2.47    24.39    -3.94    52.75    11.02   -15.60     0.18     0.50     4.06     1.28P   29.53R   10.40  
Wigan            6    4   -7      -2.90    19.24    -5.11    51.05    10.23   -18.59     0.04     0.18     2.10     0.50P   34.06R   11.68  
Huddersfield     6    1   -6      -5.85     2.46    -4.04    45.62    10.52   -20.49     0.01     0.05     0.88     0.22P   53.92R   26.56  
Stoke            6    1   -9      -6.15     1.98    -7.48    49.30    10.25   -18.53     0.04     0.13     1.52     0.47P   39.87R   15.50  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Bristol_Rovers 3 3 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wycombe               7   15   +6       4.34    88.28     4.33    62.15    10.18    -0.70     0.99     2.90    18.52     5.62P    4.22R    0.06  
Coventry              7   15   +5       4.33    88.09     3.45    66.84    10.03     6.53     2.33     6.43    32.31    11.72P    1.40R    0.01  
Ipswich               6   14  +10       3.65    86.44     6.79    82.25    10.93    35.68    32.66    51.33    83.91    61.16P    0.07R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        7   13   +3       2.09    71.83     1.12    68.21    10.17     9.72     3.13     8.39    37.57    15.25P    1.14R    0.01  
Lincoln_City          7   12   +6       2.20    72.12     5.79    63.19    10.75     6.20     1.54     4.21    23.08     8.25P    4.17R    0.10  
Blackpool             7   12   +4       1.78    68.30     3.09    66.31     9.99     9.28     2.16     6.02    31.17    11.73P    1.54R    0.01  
Doncaster             5   11   +3       2.38    77.20     0.25    71.86    10.81    14.40     7.32    16.14    51.68    24.92P    0.68R    0.00  
Sunderland            6   11   +1       0.71    58.28    -2.30    80.48    10.25    29.01    24.26    43.17    81.10    55.43P    0.04R    0.00  
Peterborough          6   10   +6       0.47    55.36     4.04    73.39    10.55    24.11     8.74    19.90    58.85    30.21P    0.40R    0.00  
Burton_Albion         6   10   +3       0.98    61.49     1.83    70.17    10.39    15.28     4.94    11.95    46.00    20.55P    0.79R    0.01  
Rochdale              6    9   +3       1.63    68.69     4.43    56.25    10.29    -6.18     0.24     0.87     7.84     2.02P   12.95R    0.47  
MK_Dons               6    9   -3       1.26    64.58    -2.08    52.22    10.77   -19.04     0.15     0.46     4.44     1.12P   25.20R    1.56  
Bristol_Rovers        7    8   -2      -1.75    32.12    -2.27    55.50     9.93    -7.43     0.16     0.58     5.99     1.73P   13.68R    0.56  
Shrewsbury            6    8   -2       0.10    52.64    -1.51    59.81    10.04    -2.39     0.48     1.48    12.78     3.77P    6.58R    0.15  
Rotherham             5    7   -1      -0.47    44.84    -1.93    66.09    11.51     7.39     3.33     8.04    32.26    14.07P    3.29R    0.09  
Gillingham            6    6   +3      -2.44    23.49     2.78    57.84    10.63     1.43     0.48     1.50    11.11     3.55P   10.48R    0.35  
Tranmere              6    5   +0      -1.74    31.30     2.81    44.66    10.46   -21.67     0.01     0.09     1.02     0.24P   51.30R    5.46  
Portsmouth            5    5   +0      -2.80    17.79    -1.52    71.22    10.89    20.19     6.85    15.75    50.83    26.15P    0.87R    0.02  
Accrington_Stanley    6    5   -4      -1.91    29.53    -1.88    49.00    10.19   -18.50     0.03     0.13     2.00     0.46P   33.97R    2.50  
Oxford_Utd            7    5   -5      -2.99    21.12    -2.17    55.61    10.28    -6.30     0.19     0.64     6.87     1.88P   14.77R    0.54  
AFC_Wimbledon         7    2   -6      -5.27     4.85    -2.15    43.87     9.59   -19.59     0.00     0.01     0.41     0.08P   53.69R    5.87  
Southend              6    0  -13      -6.43     0.77    -9.91    41.75     9.99   -31.89     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.07P   62.86R    9.54  
Bolton                5  -11  -17      -3.40    11.34   -13.00    25.59    10.21   -45.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    95.90R   72.68  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Bradford 2 1 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            7   17   +6       5.89    95.10     3.76    79.53    10.20    19.32    21.20    49.88    79.96    57.78P    0.02R    0.00  
Newport_County    7   15   +5       5.46    93.38     4.92    70.90    10.18     9.11     5.34    19.58    50.12    26.34P    0.37R    0.10  
Crewe             7   15   +2       5.98    94.50     2.76    70.60    10.50     5.35     5.45    19.37    48.40    25.34P    0.55R    0.17  
Swindon           7   14   +6       2.97    79.02     3.84    74.34    10.53    16.31    10.74    31.87    63.37    39.68P    0.16R    0.05  
Forest_Green      7   13   +1       3.12    80.49     0.49    69.97    10.29     6.48     4.63    17.71    46.40    24.26P    0.53R    0.17  
Cheltenham        7   11   +5       0.85    59.39     4.20    62.50    10.38     2.11     1.17     5.76    22.18     9.27P    3.01R    1.12  
Grimsby           7   11   +4       2.18    73.58     4.95    61.03    10.13    -0.49     0.69     3.85    17.41     6.60P    3.98R    1.49  
Plymouth          7   11   +4      -0.84    41.13     0.55    77.77    11.27    24.22    19.95    45.06    73.83    53.90P    0.14R    0.04  
Macclesfield      7   11   +3       2.70    78.11     4.88    52.79     9.79   -13.61     0.09     0.69     4.23     1.22P   16.23R    7.46  
Bradford          7   11   +3      -0.69    42.74    -0.03    75.40    11.06    19.22    13.94    36.04    66.83    45.29P    0.23R    0.07  
Crawley_Town      7   11   +2       1.63    67.96     2.35    57.78    10.10    -7.74     0.32     2.14    10.83     3.77P    7.38R    2.90  
Mansfield         7    9   +2      -2.87    21.15    -1.41    72.78    10.30    17.03     7.94    26.70    58.72    36.67P    0.21R    0.07  
Colchester        7    9   +0      -1.25    37.03    -0.96    66.81    10.36     6.78     2.63    11.50    35.52    17.53P    1.21R    0.41  
Port_Vale         7    9   -2       0.51    56.90    -0.70    55.21     9.81   -11.44     0.15     0.94     6.23     1.88P   11.25R    4.86  
Salford_City      7    8   +0       0.24    54.85     3.03    47.17    10.29   -22.20     0.03     0.27     1.70     0.53P   36.17R   21.15  
Cambridge_Utd     7    8   -1       0.03    52.12     1.05    54.20     9.88   -10.38     0.08     0.77     5.28     1.58P   13.18R    6.06  
Leyton_Orient     7    8   -4       0.15    53.49    -1.44    47.67    10.21   -24.36     0.02     0.22     1.74     0.51P   34.53R   19.76  
Northampton       7    7   -1      -2.25    27.32    -0.52    63.25    10.48     3.32     1.34     6.52    24.19    10.83P    2.93R    1.15  
Carlisle          7    7   -5      -2.43    25.86    -4.73    59.96    10.50    -5.80     0.69     3.63    15.54     6.21P    5.65R    2.35  
Morecambe         7    6   -4      -2.09    28.60    -1.75    49.30     9.96   -19.00     0.04     0.31     2.14     0.62P   27.45R   14.49  
Walsall           7    6   -5      -3.67    15.80    -5.20    64.80    10.87     3.21     2.09     9.09    29.28    14.76P    2.40R    0.87  
Oldham            7    5   -5      -3.99    13.50    -4.16    62.14    10.49     0.66     0.95     5.24    21.10     9.25P    3.78R    1.50  
Stevenage         7    3   -6      -6.06     3.65    -5.33    52.89    10.11   -10.65     0.08     0.64     4.64     1.56P   16.55R    7.79  
Scunthorpe        7    1  -10      -8.99     0.36   -10.56    56.19    11.11    -7.45     0.43     2.23    10.35     4.62P   12.09R    5.97  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Aldershot 1 2 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking             10   23  +10       8.69    96.92     9.11    73.86    10.79    12.26    12.03    47.14    19.20P    1.34R    0.05  
Halifax            10   22   +9       8.04    96.40     8.52    74.34     9.84    13.67    10.57    49.57    18.74P    0.69R    0.01  
Bromley            10   22   +7       6.08    90.74     3.59    74.07    10.18    10.73    11.19    48.07    19.00P    0.99R    0.02  
Maidenhead         10   17   +7       3.80    80.63     7.79    62.14     9.82     0.45     1.02    11.16     2.91P   10.77R    0.71  
Stockport          10   17   +2       5.01    86.48     4.71    60.71    10.74    -6.56     1.14    10.76     2.95P   16.45R    1.58  
Yeovil             10   16   +4      -1.17    39.50    -1.09    78.91    10.38    24.27    23.50    67.66    38.25P    0.33R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     10   16   +1       1.87    66.25     0.37    66.79     9.96     2.94     2.83    22.42     6.97P    4.80R    0.33  
Torquay            10   15   +0       3.43    77.38     3.65    56.87    10.77   -12.63     0.48     6.08     1.48P   27.43R    3.99  
Hartlepool         10   15   +0       1.34    62.04     0.09    61.57     9.92    -4.52     0.90    10.17     2.72P   12.53R    0.91  
Dag_&_Red          10   15   -1       1.77    65.68    -0.25    64.50     9.90    -0.85     1.47    15.81     4.56P    7.53R    0.44  
Solihull_Moors      9   14   +6      -0.97    40.92     1.96    73.27    10.29    18.91    10.00    46.65    20.22P    1.32R    0.03  
Barnet              8   13   +2       1.59    65.81     1.25    70.31    10.26     9.83     5.76    34.76    13.11P    2.45R    0.15  
Eastleigh          10   12   -2      -0.59    45.70    -0.25    60.16    10.01    -4.02     0.64     8.24     2.30P   15.87R    1.45  
Notts_County       10   11   +2      -6.18     8.86    -3.42    73.92    10.56    22.82    11.76    49.94    25.04P    1.40R    0.07  
Boreham_Wood       10   11   +1      -2.78    27.28     0.92    57.54     9.81    -3.30     0.31     5.24     1.31P   21.54R    2.14  
Sutton_United      10   11   -2      -2.28    31.09    -1.34    57.87     9.86    -5.80     0.34     5.29     1.39P   21.22R    2.14  
Harrogate_Town     10   11   -3      -3.37    23.28    -3.90    61.70    10.09    -1.35     1.02    11.08     3.36P   12.52R    0.99  
Wrexham             9   10   -2      -3.27    21.99    -3.41    65.29    10.10     4.94     2.11    18.89     6.47P    6.45R    0.41  
Barrow             10   10   -4      -2.61    28.51    -2.40    56.11     9.87    -9.10     0.17     3.78     0.88P   26.93R    3.46  
AFC_Fylde           9   10   -5      -4.40    15.26    -8.11    65.58    10.34     2.21     2.41    20.05     7.18P    6.80R    0.38  
Aldershot           9    8   -4      -2.17    30.98    -0.89    50.20     9.69   -16.17     0.04     0.95     0.21P   49.80R    9.96  
Chorley            10    7  -13      -1.29    40.27    -3.66    37.66     9.56   -43.87     0.00     0.03     0.01P   89.77R   61.53  
Ebbsfleet_United   10    6   -9      -6.48     6.79    -7.00    55.19    10.07    -9.33     0.15     3.26     0.93P   30.37R    4.62  
Chesterfield       10    5   -6      -8.90     1.98    -6.24    54.84    10.01    -5.52     0.16     3.02     0.81P   30.70R    4.60