Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 8 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2019, Arsenal 2 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         4   12   +9       2.61    85.83     1.85    86.59     8.45    57.34    33.01    84.45    94.99    98.29    99.76     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          4   10  +11       0.28    53.81     3.13    91.13     7.63    75.63    64.35    94.56    98.76    99.66    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         4    8   +3       1.93    75.96     2.13    55.44     9.35     2.97     0.03     0.48     3.91    10.48    31.69     1.43R    0.18  
Crystal_Palace    4    7   +1       1.48    71.60     0.96    50.02     9.19    -5.65     0.00     0.10     1.06     3.39    14.45     4.83R    0.79  
Arsenal           4    7   +0       1.14    68.09    -0.39    66.70     9.58    21.08     0.82     5.54    27.41    49.07    77.36     0.06R    0.01  
Everton           4    7   +0       0.55    58.16    -1.47    53.00     9.32    -2.09     0.01     0.26     2.40     6.82    22.76     2.59R    0.34  
West_Ham          4    7   -1       1.76    76.13    -0.21    48.96     9.37   -10.51     0.00     0.09     0.98     3.09    12.53     6.44R    1.04  
Man_Utd           4    5   +3      -2.05    23.33     0.68    63.75     9.45    21.75     0.38     3.41    18.17    36.35    68.31     0.17R    0.01  
Tottenham         4    5   +1      -1.59    26.10    -0.71    69.37     9.20    29.12     1.19     9.13    39.39    61.66    85.74     0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         4    5   +0       0.79    64.11     2.04    40.54     9.37   -19.89     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.47     2.60    27.15R    8.25  
Chelsea           4    5   -3      -2.06    22.13    -5.51    61.41     9.37    11.68     0.18     1.89    11.60    26.00    57.63     0.27R    0.03  
Burnley           4    4   -1       0.20    56.72     1.87    42.70     9.01   -14.68     0.00     0.02     0.16     0.62     3.65    18.56R    4.49  
Southampton       4    4   -2      -0.05    52.51     0.39    42.59     9.10   -16.46     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.62     3.62    19.32R    4.91  
Newcastle         4    4   -2      -0.89    38.77    -1.07    45.25     8.90   -10.54     0.00     0.01     0.25     0.99     5.84    11.20R    2.19  
Bournemouth       4    4   -3      -0.38    47.26    -0.50    42.71     9.34   -19.27     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.75     4.11    20.06R    5.18  
Brighton          4    4   -3       0.07    53.98     0.09    37.61     8.61   -23.66     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.13     0.96    37.17R   11.83  
Wolverhampton     4    3   -1      -1.84    24.85    -0.10    45.34     9.11    -8.69     0.00     0.02     0.34     1.21     6.20    11.80R    2.65  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -2      -0.80    38.83     0.97    35.58     9.37   -28.33     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.15     0.91    47.76R   20.64  
Norwich           4    3   -4      -0.19    48.07     0.95    35.89     9.55   -32.37     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.16     1.09    47.01R   20.43  
Watford           4    1   -6      -3.89     7.00    -5.11    36.20     8.95   -27.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.80    44.16R   17.03  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Birmingham 2 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Swansea          6   16   +8       6.41    97.56     5.94    80.56    10.85    22.54    22.84    39.69    75.85    49.18P    0.12R    0.01  
Charlton         6   14   +6       5.61    95.06     5.72    67.09    11.24     3.35     3.25     7.55    29.94    12.22P    3.32R    0.58  
Leeds_United     6   13   +7       3.39    83.57     4.96    79.07    10.83    23.86    19.23    34.91    71.79    45.52P    0.15R    0.03  
West_Brom        6   12   +3       1.56    66.21    -0.44    79.70    10.94    22.84    21.28    37.28    73.08    47.62P    0.18R    0.02  
Bristol_City     6   11   +3       2.38    76.27     2.38    69.94    10.86     8.91     4.64    10.64    38.98    17.24P    1.61R    0.28  
Fulham           6   10   +5       0.14    51.27     2.57    72.10    11.68    15.94     8.38    17.08    47.99    25.57P    1.49R    0.27  
Preston          6   10   +4       1.08    62.88     3.02    68.20    11.04     8.80     3.69     8.59    33.99    14.54P    2.53R    0.43  
QPR              6   10   +0       2.61    78.55     1.39    56.78    10.71   -13.25     0.32     0.95     7.24     2.02P   17.65R    4.47  
Birmingham       6   10   -2       2.71    79.82    -0.57    59.83    10.48    -9.45     0.53     1.53    10.83     3.30P   10.52R    2.32  
Nott'm_Forest    6    9   +3       1.08    62.84     3.48    66.89    10.66     7.55     2.39     6.20    28.94    11.50P    2.99R    0.47  
Sheff_Wed        6    9   +2       0.01    50.09     0.84    63.31    10.75     1.15     1.32     3.66    18.96     7.15P    5.76R    1.17  
Millwall         6    9   -2       2.24    75.95     0.15    58.04    10.31    -9.95     0.34     1.03     7.79     2.25P   13.30R    3.19  
Cardiff          6    8   -2      -1.13    37.86    -3.36    64.35    11.43     0.29     2.14     5.05    22.89     9.67P    6.05R    1.26  
Brentford        6    7   +1      -1.81    29.90     0.08    68.30    10.91    10.50     3.57     8.66    34.30    15.59P    2.43R    0.41  
Luton            6    7   +0      -0.67    43.44     0.95    59.06    11.66    -5.38     0.84     2.38    12.67     4.71P   14.16R    3.81  
Reading          6    7   +0      -0.02    51.38     1.94    53.67    10.35   -12.54     0.14     0.45     3.82     1.12P   24.86R    7.51  
Blackburn        6    7   -2      -0.23    48.61    -0.34    59.78    10.68    -5.26     0.53     1.59    11.52     3.60P   10.94R    2.71  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -1      -3.15    17.47    -2.36    65.72    10.38     6.52     1.78     4.77    24.95    10.47P    3.18R    0.58  
Derby            6    6   -3      -2.66    22.12    -3.64    66.56    10.82     5.52     2.20     6.08    28.18    11.90P    3.30R    0.56  
Hull             6    5   -3      -2.83    20.90    -2.25    57.05    10.92    -8.01     0.38     1.16     7.88     2.60P   17.00R    4.90  
Barnsley         6    5   -5      -2.46    24.54    -3.91    52.50    10.93   -16.00     0.09     0.39     3.83     1.08P   30.05R   10.24  
Wigan            6    4   -7      -2.93    18.84    -5.14    51.03    10.24   -18.67     0.05     0.17     2.16     0.51P   33.88R   11.69  
Huddersfield     6    1   -6      -5.78     2.62    -3.94    45.43    10.63   -20.82     0.01     0.05     0.83     0.22P   54.56R   27.37  
Stoke            6    1   -9      -6.17     1.95    -7.49    49.32    10.38   -18.47     0.05     0.13     1.61     0.42P   39.95R   15.69  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Bristol_Rovers 3 3 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wycombe               7   15   +6       4.36    88.10     4.38    62.04    10.16    -0.89     0.99     2.88    18.12     5.55P    4.29R    0.07  
Coventry              7   15   +5       4.32    87.98     3.44    66.73    10.05     6.38     2.31     6.45    31.64    11.57P    1.55R    0.02  
Ipswich               6   14  +10       3.65    86.47     6.81    82.14    10.97    35.43    32.03    50.94    84.12    60.96P    0.04R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        7   13   +3       2.08    71.62     1.09    68.22    10.13     9.70     3.32     8.35    37.78    15.08P    1.10R    0.01  
Lincoln_City          7   12   +6       2.22    72.61     5.82    63.03    10.68     5.97     1.57     4.13    22.48     7.99P    4.02R    0.13  
Blackpool             7   12   +4       1.82    68.91     3.14    66.17     9.99     9.06     2.12     5.78    30.43    11.10P    1.65R    0.02  
Doncaster             5   11   +3       2.38    77.48     0.27    72.09    10.78    14.77     7.67    16.77    52.60    25.57P    0.63R    0.01  
Sunderland            6   11   +1       0.72    58.60    -2.29    80.42    10.35    28.82    24.38    43.16    80.91    55.47P    0.07R    0.00  
Peterborough          6   10   +6       0.48    55.46     4.06    73.25    10.47    23.95     8.32    19.28    58.59    30.01P    0.37R    0.00  
Burton_Albion         6   10   +3       1.03    61.95     1.91    70.16    10.44    15.25     4.86    12.16    46.04    20.66P    0.89R    0.01  
Rochdale              6    9   +3       1.62    68.44     4.39    56.31    10.27    -6.06     0.22     0.83     7.93     2.06P   12.63R    0.48  
MK_Dons               6    9   -3       1.28    64.53    -2.04    52.00    10.73   -19.40     0.12     0.39     4.29     1.02P   25.79R    1.82  
Bristol_Rovers        7    8   -2      -1.82    31.46    -2.35    55.66     9.93    -7.15     0.20     0.66     6.36     1.81P   13.39R    0.52  
Shrewsbury            6    8   -2       0.12    52.61    -1.53    59.68    10.04    -2.61     0.53     1.56    12.58     3.84P    6.71R    0.15  
Rotherham             5    7   -1      -0.54    43.81    -2.05    66.81    11.59     8.59     4.05     9.24    34.88    15.78P    2.84R    0.06  
Gillingham            6    6   +3      -2.43    23.70     2.79    57.83    10.48     1.48     0.45     1.44    10.88     3.49P   10.19R    0.32  
Tranmere              6    5   +0      -1.73    31.35     2.79    44.92    10.55   -21.13     0.02     0.08     1.11     0.26P   50.26R    5.65  
Portsmouth            5    5   +0      -2.78    18.09    -1.50    71.03    10.86    19.82     6.62    15.05    50.07    25.29P    0.87R    0.01  
Accrington_Stanley    6    5   -4      -1.89    29.70    -1.85    48.84    10.19   -18.79     0.04     0.15     1.96     0.48P   34.96R    2.67  
Oxford_Utd            7    5   -5      -2.99    21.24    -2.15    55.39    10.28    -6.62     0.16     0.68     6.57     1.86P   15.14R    0.58  
AFC_Wimbledon         7    2   -6      -5.26     4.94    -2.17    43.85     9.52   -19.64     0.00     0.01     0.39     0.09P   53.68R    5.58  
Southend              6    0  -13      -6.41     0.81    -9.90    41.73     9.99   -31.88     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.05P   63.19R    9.62  
Bolton                5  -11  -17      -3.44    11.14   -13.05    25.82    10.22   -45.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.73R   72.26  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Bradford 2 1 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            7   17   +6       5.90    95.03     3.78    79.49    10.17    19.40    21.18    50.12    79.86    58.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Newport_County    7   15   +5       5.40    93.15     4.85    71.09    10.23     9.44     5.63    20.25    50.79    26.89P    0.36R    0.10  
Crewe             7   15   +2       5.98    94.71     2.78    70.70    10.45     5.48     5.50    19.61    49.09    25.66P    0.53R    0.15  
Swindon           7   14   +6       2.97    78.90     3.85    74.33    10.56    16.27    10.97    31.80    63.56    39.99P    0.21R    0.06  
Forest_Green      7   13   +1       3.18    80.80     0.56    69.67    10.39     6.09     4.69    17.08    45.24    23.68P    0.66R    0.16  
Cheltenham        7   11   +5       0.87    59.53     4.20    62.43    10.29     1.99     1.17     5.67    21.83     8.91P    2.82R    1.09  
Grimsby           7   11   +4       2.15    73.28     4.90    60.90    10.12    -0.60     0.69     3.91    17.20     6.51P    4.01R    1.54  
Plymouth          7   11   +4      -0.81    41.51     0.60    77.58    11.26    23.90    19.55    44.85    73.63    53.47P    0.19R    0.06  
Macclesfield      7   11   +3       2.72    78.03     4.87    52.95     9.86   -13.44     0.09     0.70     4.31     1.27P   16.00R    7.34  
Bradford          7   11   +3      -0.70    42.54    -0.04    75.22    11.04    19.00    13.54    35.94    66.43    45.14P    0.26R    0.07  
Crawley_Town      7   11   +2       1.55    66.85     2.23    58.17    10.13    -7.11     0.37     2.34    11.51     4.03P    7.10R    2.73  
Mansfield         7    9   +2      -2.86    21.45    -1.37    72.76    10.35    17.07     8.13    26.48    58.54    36.36P    0.24R    0.06  
Colchester        7    9   +0      -1.26    36.70    -0.99    66.81    10.28     6.79     2.65    11.38    35.31    17.53P    1.09R    0.39  
Port_Vale         7    9   -2       0.54    57.42    -0.65    54.97     9.83   -11.79     0.14     0.98     6.01     1.85P   11.87R    5.10  
Salford_City      7    8   +0       0.27    55.08     3.08    47.14    10.49   -22.26     0.05     0.27     1.99     0.52P   36.64R   21.65  
Cambridge_Utd     7    8   -1       0.08    52.71     1.13    53.80     9.82   -10.91     0.12     0.76     4.90     1.49P   13.98R    6.37  
Leyton_Orient     7    8   -4       0.16    53.84    -1.40    47.74    10.23   -24.43     0.02     0.23     1.84     0.51P   34.64R   19.86  
Northampton       7    7   -1      -2.23    27.48    -0.46    63.37    10.52     3.41     1.34     6.60    24.67    10.92P    2.89R    1.12  
Carlisle          7    7   -5      -2.42    26.15    -4.73    59.92    10.56    -5.87     0.60     3.51    15.54     6.27P    5.78R    2.35  
Morecambe         7    6   -4      -2.15    27.87    -1.84    49.61     9.92   -18.54     0.04     0.29     2.29     0.67P   26.59R   14.02  
Walsall           7    6   -5      -3.68    15.76    -5.24    64.97    10.84     3.49     2.19     9.39    29.92    15.15P    2.32R    0.90  
Oldham            7    5   -5      -3.98    13.40    -4.16    61.99    10.40     0.41     0.88     4.94    20.32     8.95P    3.81R    1.47  
Stevenage         7    3   -6      -6.09     3.54    -5.37    53.09    10.16   -10.33     0.06     0.65     4.75     1.62P   16.01R    7.56  
Scunthorpe        7    1  -10      -8.99     0.38   -10.57    56.21    11.15    -7.44     0.39     2.26    10.47     4.52P   11.98R    5.84  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Aldershot 1 2 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking             10   23  +10       8.63    96.80     9.06    73.91    10.99    12.40    12.44    47.67    19.84P    1.39R    0.07  
Halifax            10   22   +9       8.01    96.34     8.49    74.45     9.81    13.80    10.58    50.02    18.78P    0.59R    0.02  
Bromley            10   22   +7       6.01    90.39     3.52    74.41    10.20    11.25    11.80    49.24    19.65P    0.92R    0.04  
Maidenhead         10   17   +7       3.77    80.22     7.76    62.18     9.78     0.56     0.96    11.21     2.76P   10.51R    0.74  
Stockport          10   17   +2       4.95    86.17     4.60    60.79    10.68    -6.47     1.18    10.64     2.99P   16.07R    1.47  
Yeovil             10   16   +4      -1.15    39.85    -1.08    78.83    10.35    24.23    23.09    67.15    37.85P    0.33R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     10   16   +1       1.87    66.14     0.37    66.70    10.01     2.88     2.72    22.11     6.99P    4.97R    0.35  
Torquay            10   15   +0       3.41    77.38     3.64    56.96    10.91   -12.59     0.50     6.31     1.49P   27.50R    4.35  
Hartlepool         10   15   +0       1.39    62.58     0.16    61.58     9.92    -4.50     0.85    10.33     2.70P   12.20R    0.95  
Dag_&_Red          10   15   -1       1.74    65.72    -0.32    64.71     9.90    -0.54     1.58    16.38     4.60P    7.11R    0.45  
Solihull_Moors      9   14   +6      -0.89    41.70     2.11    73.01    10.26    18.47     9.52    45.66    19.67P    1.31R    0.06  
Barnet              8   13   +2       1.54    65.30     1.19    70.27    10.24     9.86     5.69    34.38    13.06P    2.49R    0.17  
Eastleigh          10   12   -2      -0.54    46.49    -0.15    59.92     9.94    -4.31     0.53     7.81     2.03P   16.10R    1.42  
Notts_County       10   11   +2      -6.19     8.83    -3.44    73.93    10.52    22.81    11.88    50.02    25.17P    1.33R    0.04  
Boreham_Wood       10   11   +1      -2.80    27.29     0.88    57.69     9.78    -3.07     0.31     5.28     1.35P   21.02R    2.01  
Sutton_United      10   11   -2      -2.21    31.62    -1.27    57.71     9.90    -6.04     0.36     5.27     1.45P   22.16R    2.41  
Harrogate_Town     10   11   -3      -3.29    24.02    -3.75    61.46    10.23    -1.84     0.99    10.89     3.20P   13.29R    1.11  
Wrexham             9   10   -2      -3.24    22.38    -3.35    65.09    10.15     4.65     2.06    18.34     6.44P    6.82R    0.43  
Barrow             10   10   -4      -2.65    28.29    -2.42    55.87     9.88    -9.39     0.16     3.58     0.84P   27.71R    3.70  
AFC_Fylde           9   10   -5      -4.39    15.37    -8.12    65.64    10.35     2.31     2.47    20.20     7.18P    6.86R    0.46  
Aldershot           9    8   -4      -2.20    30.70    -0.95    50.33     9.64   -16.01     0.04     1.00     0.22P   49.24R   10.13  
Chorley            10    7  -13      -1.39    39.52    -3.82    37.96     9.71   -43.47     0.00     0.06     0.01P   88.91R   60.43  
Ebbsfleet_United   10    6   -9      -6.50     6.59    -7.03    55.44    10.08    -9.08     0.15     3.55     0.93P   29.44R    4.18  
Chesterfield       10    5   -6      -8.78     2.07    -6.07    54.61    10.05    -5.88     0.15     2.91     0.82P   31.73R    5.02