Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 7 September 2019 at 21:00:02 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2019, Arsenal 2 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         4   12   +9       2.59    85.75     1.78    86.64     8.37    57.45    33.15    84.72    95.16    98.41    99.76     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          4   10  +11       0.28    53.52     3.15    91.09     7.63    75.58    64.07    94.49    98.70    99.64    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         4    8   +3       1.94    76.16     2.15    55.48     9.38     3.04     0.04     0.47     3.95    10.44    31.98     1.40R    0.20  
Crystal_Palace    4    7   +1       1.48    71.97     0.95    50.00     9.14    -5.71     0.00     0.09     1.07     3.46    14.22     4.69R    0.77  
Arsenal           4    7   +0       1.12    67.90    -0.41    66.78     9.59    21.23     0.80     5.57    27.49    49.09    77.31     0.05R    0.01  
Everton           4    7   +0       0.55    58.05    -1.46    52.86     9.24    -2.31     0.01     0.22     2.15     6.44    22.39     2.54R    0.34  
West_Ham          4    7   -1       1.81    76.90    -0.15    48.80     9.36   -10.78     0.00     0.09     0.95     2.95    12.20     6.75R    1.26  
Man_Utd           4    5   +3      -2.05    23.25     0.68    63.70     9.40    21.63     0.40     3.23    17.95    36.17    68.34     0.16R    0.02  
Tottenham         4    5   +1      -1.60    25.86    -0.73    69.46     9.26    29.32     1.34     9.10    39.51    61.94    85.72     0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         4    5   +0       0.80    64.12     2.06    40.56     9.46   -20.06     0.00     0.02     0.15     0.51     2.77    27.56R    8.60  
Chelsea           4    5   -3      -2.08    21.92    -5.54    61.54     9.36    11.80     0.19     1.93    11.83    26.36    58.41     0.29R    0.02  
Burnley           4    4   -1       0.18    56.56     1.89    42.67     8.95   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.55     3.58    18.45R    4.42  
Southampton       4    4   -2      -0.01    52.99     0.44    42.40     9.04   -16.77     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.50     3.42    20.03R    5.19  
Newcastle         4    4   -2      -0.86    39.50    -1.03    45.16     8.90   -10.70     0.00     0.01     0.23     1.01     5.69    11.62R    2.28  
Bournemouth       4    4   -3      -0.38    47.09    -0.56    42.89     9.40   -18.90     0.00     0.02     0.22     0.82     4.24    19.57R    5.31  
Brighton          4    4   -3       0.04    53.62     0.05    37.63     8.53   -23.67     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.10     0.96    36.93R   11.78  
Wolverhampton     4    3   -1      -1.85    24.34    -0.13    45.43     9.10    -8.51     0.00     0.03     0.29     1.17     6.15    11.73R    2.43  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -2      -0.77    39.39     1.00    35.59     9.26   -28.30     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.91    47.65R   19.82  
Norwich           4    3   -4      -0.17    48.51     1.02    35.79     9.60   -32.53     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.20     1.17    47.64R   21.23  
Watford           4    1   -6      -3.93     6.79    -5.14    36.41     8.95   -27.02     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.80    42.92R   16.31  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Birmingham 2 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Swansea          6   16   +8       6.44    97.71     5.99    80.07    10.82    21.84    21.59    38.09    74.44    47.50P    0.10R    0.01  
Charlton         6   14   +6       5.63    95.15     5.78    66.96    11.32     3.19     3.42     7.74    29.77    12.08P    3.59R    0.70  
Leeds_United     6   13   +7       3.36    83.60     4.92    79.04    10.73    23.79    18.96    34.88    72.36    45.46P    0.16R    0.02  
West_Brom        6   12   +3       1.55    66.56    -0.44    79.76    10.94    22.92    21.86    37.77    73.69    48.34P    0.16R    0.02  
Bristol_City     6   11   +3       2.39    76.31     2.40    70.05    10.91     9.07     4.98    10.98    39.81    17.96P    1.66R    0.25  
Fulham           6   10   +5       0.15    51.27     2.56    72.32    11.64    16.29     8.73    17.72    48.87    26.31P    1.39R    0.22  
Preston          6   10   +4       1.07    62.32     2.97    68.21    11.11     8.80     3.80     9.02    34.17    15.12P    2.64R    0.49  
QPR              6   10   +0       2.62    78.54     1.39    56.91    10.67   -13.08     0.37     1.04     7.43     2.12P   17.21R    4.49  
Birmingham       6   10   -2       2.71    79.60    -0.59    59.60    10.53    -9.76     0.50     1.48    10.55     3.18P   11.43R    2.65  
Nott'm_Forest    6    9   +3       1.13    63.62     3.54    66.43    10.85     6.88     2.36     6.04    28.04    11.06P    3.51R    0.68  
Sheff_Wed        6    9   +2       0.03    50.32     0.88    63.28    10.77     1.08     1.32     3.61    19.22     7.17P    5.98R    1.18  
Millwall         6    9   -2       2.21    75.57     0.12    58.11    10.32    -9.83     0.32     1.08     7.94     2.32P   13.71R    3.26  
Cardiff          6    8   -2      -1.15    37.75    -3.37    64.48    11.29     0.43     2.00     5.22    23.21     9.86P    5.63R    1.18  
Brentford        6    7   +1      -1.79    30.10     0.11    67.93    10.74    10.02     3.37     7.94    32.98    14.56P    2.39R    0.42  
Luton            6    7   +0      -0.69    43.31     0.94    59.06    11.74    -5.32     0.92     2.45    12.80     4.69P   14.72R    4.21  
Reading          6    7   +0      -0.02    51.33     1.95    53.70    10.39   -12.45     0.15     0.43     3.93     1.12P   24.93R    7.63  
Blackburn        6    7   -2      -0.20    49.19    -0.29    59.67    10.78    -5.40     0.60     1.67    11.45     3.74P   11.62R    2.87  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -1      -3.12    17.73    -2.33    65.60    10.35     6.32     1.73     4.68    24.68    10.31P    3.33R    0.61  
Derby            6    6   -3      -2.63    22.43    -3.59    66.36    10.84     5.25     2.39     6.16    27.61    11.89P    3.48R    0.60  
Hull             6    5   -3      -2.84    20.59    -2.28    57.32    10.85    -7.59     0.40     1.15     8.25     2.77P   16.25R    4.60  
Barnsley         6    5   -5      -2.44    24.76    -3.88    52.60    10.97   -15.90     0.15     0.48     4.01     1.22P   30.26R   10.63  
Wigan            6    4   -7      -2.93    18.91    -5.13    51.11    10.24   -18.51     0.05     0.19     2.29     0.59P   33.65R   11.79  
Huddersfield     6    1   -6      -5.87     2.47    -4.06    45.90    10.60   -20.09     0.02     0.07     0.90     0.24P   53.31R   26.28  
Stoke            6    1   -9      -6.22     1.89    -7.57    49.66    10.37   -17.96     0.03     0.11     1.62     0.41P   38.89R   15.18  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Bristol_Rovers 3 3 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wycombe               7   15   +6       4.36    88.22     4.38    62.00    10.08    -0.96     0.95     2.80    17.92     5.45P    4.18R    0.08  
Coventry              7   15   +5       4.30    87.96     3.42    66.91    10.00     6.63     2.53     6.54    32.55    11.78P    1.43R    0.01  
Ipswich               6   14  +10       3.61    86.28     6.74    82.23    10.87    35.64    32.87    51.37    84.22    61.15P    0.07R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        7   13   +3       2.13    72.11     1.13    68.11    10.10     9.47     3.08     8.10    37.23    14.71P    1.05R    0.01  
Lincoln_City          7   12   +6       2.24    72.54     5.84    62.90    10.63     5.74     1.41     3.92    22.06     7.57P    4.07R    0.11  
Blackpool             7   12   +4       1.83    68.95     3.14    66.27    10.01     9.18     2.17     5.94    30.65    11.37P    1.57R    0.03  
Doncaster             5   11   +3       2.35    77.03     0.22    71.96    10.78    14.54     7.55    16.65    52.07    25.45P    0.67R    0.02  
Sunderland            6   11   +1       0.72    58.47    -2.26    80.31    10.17    28.65    24.00    42.94    80.86    55.48P    0.05R    0.00  
Peterborough          6   10   +6       0.50    55.64     4.06    73.30    10.41    24.00     8.52    19.59    58.44    30.09P    0.41R    0.00  
Burton_Albion         6   10   +3       0.99    61.40     1.81    70.28    10.35    15.46     5.10    12.60    46.40    21.27P    0.87R    0.01  
Rochdale              6    9   +3       1.62    68.42     4.39    56.36    10.28    -5.96     0.26     0.87     8.02     2.14P   12.77R    0.46  
MK_Dons               6    9   -3       1.28    64.69    -2.05    52.04    10.73   -19.26     0.13     0.44     4.37     1.16P   25.86R    1.68  
Bristol_Rovers        7    8   -2      -1.83    30.97    -2.37    55.79     9.84    -6.90     0.13     0.59     6.39     1.72P   12.91R    0.50  
Shrewsbury            6    8   -2       0.08    52.25    -1.55    59.88    10.07    -2.25     0.45     1.59    13.04     4.07P    6.50R    0.16  
Rotherham             5    7   -1      -0.47    44.91    -1.93    66.30    11.53     7.73     3.56     8.32    33.50    14.57P    3.33R    0.09  
Gillingham            6    6   +3      -2.43    23.75     2.83    57.85    10.60     1.49     0.44     1.38    11.18     3.52P   10.52R    0.36  
Tranmere              6    5   +0      -1.72    31.25     2.80    44.92    10.45   -21.09     0.02     0.08     1.03     0.26P   50.34R    5.39  
Portsmouth            5    5   +0      -2.78    17.89    -1.51    71.11    10.85    19.99     6.58    15.45    50.46    25.76P    0.88R    0.02  
Accrington_Stanley    6    5   -4      -1.91    29.45    -1.86    48.91    10.27   -18.66     0.04     0.16     2.11     0.48P   34.58R    2.72  
Oxford_Utd            7    5   -5      -2.99    21.33    -2.15    55.53    10.29    -6.44     0.19     0.63     6.81     1.87P   14.70R    0.62  
AFC_Wimbledon         7    2   -6      -5.26     4.97    -2.16    43.76     9.51   -19.76     0.01     0.02     0.38     0.08P   54.25R    5.81  
Southend              6    0  -13      -6.42     0.87    -9.89    41.71    10.11   -32.01     0.00     0.02     0.29     0.06P   63.18R   10.13  
Bolton                5  -11  -17      -3.42    11.34   -13.03    25.75    10.22   -45.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.80R   71.81  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Bradford 2 1 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            7   17   +6       5.90    95.09     3.80    79.48    10.33    19.32    21.73    49.91    79.80    57.75P    0.03R    0.01  
Newport_County    7   15   +5       5.41    93.08     4.85    71.10    10.24     9.41     5.75    20.29    50.99    27.16P    0.37R    0.12  
Crewe             7   15   +2       5.98    94.71     2.77    70.63    10.35     5.36     5.26    19.29    48.83    25.46P    0.48R    0.17  
Swindon           7   14   +6       2.96    78.89     3.83    74.21    10.54    16.14    10.82    31.48    63.31    39.32P    0.19R    0.04  
Forest_Green      7   13   +1       3.18    80.82     0.57    69.66    10.41     6.09     4.66    17.18    45.38    23.68P    0.62R    0.21  
Cheltenham        7   11   +5       0.93    60.18     4.30    62.14    10.32     1.59     1.11     5.65    21.12     8.87P    3.16R    1.10  
Grimsby           7   11   +4       2.15    73.04     4.90    60.98    10.19    -0.46     0.75     4.14    17.47     6.80P    4.08R    1.57  
Plymouth          7   11   +4      -0.83    41.14     0.57    77.64    11.28    24.02    19.90    44.95    73.72    53.67P    0.15R    0.04  
Macclesfield      7   11   +3       2.70    78.23     4.84    52.98     9.81   -13.32     0.09     0.66     4.31     1.23P   16.11R    7.34  
Bradford          7   11   +3      -0.60    43.41     0.09    74.85    10.99    18.46    12.69    34.64    65.03    43.82P    0.21R    0.07  
Crawley_Town      7   11   +2       1.54    67.04     2.21    58.21    10.13    -7.10     0.40     2.35    11.43     4.03P    6.79R    2.69  
Mansfield         7    9   +2      -2.88    21.29    -1.38    72.84    10.22    17.14     8.31    27.05    58.90    37.16P    0.18R    0.07  
Colchester        7    9   +0      -1.24    37.23    -0.95    66.78    10.36     6.75     2.60    11.52    35.46    17.59P    1.22R    0.40  
Port_Vale         7    9   -2       0.55    57.50    -0.64    55.11     9.78   -11.60     0.14     0.99     6.00     1.88P   11.48R    4.77  
Salford_City      7    8   +0       0.27    54.99     3.08    47.18    10.47   -22.18     0.03     0.30     1.90     0.59P   36.36R   21.65  
Cambridge_Utd     7    8   -1       0.01    52.02     1.05    54.15     9.92   -10.44     0.10     0.77     5.46     1.66P   13.68R    6.13  
Leyton_Orient     7    8   -4       0.15    53.56    -1.44    47.75    10.26   -24.37     0.05     0.27     1.91     0.55P   34.62R   19.77  
Northampton       7    7   -1      -2.22    27.70    -0.49    63.38    10.56     3.49     1.38     7.07    24.80    11.42P    2.84R    1.15  
Carlisle          7    7   -5      -2.41    26.16    -4.71    59.84    10.53    -5.99     0.60     3.54    15.54     6.17P    5.91R    2.43  
Morecambe         7    6   -4      -2.10    28.46    -1.78    49.40    10.00   -18.87     0.03     0.28     2.28     0.63P   27.54R   14.62  
Walsall           7    6   -5      -3.69    15.67    -5.25    65.08    10.80     3.57     2.19     9.44    30.25    15.06P    2.35R    0.87  
Oldham            7    5   -5      -4.03    13.35    -4.23    62.15    10.43     0.67     0.97     5.21    20.90     9.19P    3.64R    1.43  
Stevenage         7    3   -6      -6.14     3.64    -5.44    53.17    10.22   -10.23     0.09     0.77     5.06     1.79P   16.01R    7.57  
Scunthorpe        7    1  -10      -8.99     0.42   -10.56    56.14    11.07    -7.49     0.35     2.24    10.13     4.49P   11.98R    5.80  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 September 2019, Aldershot 1 2 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking             10   23  +10       8.69    96.82     9.16    73.82    10.98    12.26    12.46    47.35    19.70P    1.50R    0.07  
Halifax            10   22   +9       7.97    96.39     8.44    74.43     9.80    13.82    10.56    49.79    18.96P    0.65R    0.02  
Bromley            10   22   +7       6.07    90.57     3.63    74.14    10.31    10.84    11.45    48.26    19.09P    1.04R    0.02  
Maidenhead         10   17   +7       3.78    80.29     7.77    62.12     9.79     0.44     0.93    11.18     2.75P   10.77R    0.85  
Stockport          10   17   +2       4.91    85.94     4.57    60.98    10.78    -6.21     1.21    11.23     3.12P   15.85R    1.57  
Yeovil             10   16   +4      -1.20    39.09    -1.13    78.94    10.19    24.34    23.35    68.01    38.39P    0.30R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     10   16   +1       1.83    65.90     0.35    66.79     9.98     2.98     2.68    22.37     7.13P    4.82R    0.28  
Torquay            10   15   +0       3.40    77.42     3.58    57.10    10.90   -12.34     0.61     6.30     1.60P   27.12R    4.02  
Hartlepool         10   15   +0       1.37    62.43     0.14    61.45     9.95    -4.68     0.86    10.07     2.67P   12.79R    1.00  
Dag_&_Red          10   15   -1       1.82    66.33    -0.21    64.52     9.88    -0.80     1.53    15.87     4.42P    7.51R    0.41  
Solihull_Moors      9   14   +6      -0.90    41.49     2.07    73.09    10.35    18.60     9.88    46.00    19.97P    1.36R    0.06  
Barnet              8   13   +2       1.62    66.23     1.30    70.15    10.28     9.57     5.63    33.76    12.43P    2.54R    0.13  
Eastleigh          10   12   -2      -0.58    46.22    -0.21    59.99     9.95    -4.24     0.60     7.84     2.02P   15.72R    1.53  
Notts_County       10   11   +2      -6.19     8.66    -3.42    73.89    10.48    22.76    11.77    50.13    25.34P    1.39R    0.06  
Boreham_Wood       10   11   +1      -2.85    26.87     0.82    57.72     9.79    -3.04     0.29     5.33     1.40P   20.88R    2.08  
Sutton_United      10   11   -2      -2.24    31.42    -1.29    57.66     9.89    -6.14     0.36     5.22     1.39P   21.95R    2.28  
Harrogate_Town     10   11   -3      -3.39    23.17    -3.93    61.79    10.16    -1.25     0.99    11.29     3.29P   12.31R    1.04  
Wrexham             9   10   -2      -3.24    22.52    -3.40    65.16    10.09     4.76     1.93    18.54     6.19P    6.77R    0.44  
Barrow             10   10   -4      -2.60    28.69    -2.36    55.76     9.78    -9.57     0.18     3.46     0.90P   27.91R    3.58  
AFC_Fylde           9   10   -5      -4.41    15.06    -8.14    65.82    10.36     2.53     2.44    20.64     7.31P    6.51R    0.44  
Aldershot           9    8   -4      -2.16    31.07    -0.87    50.09     9.57   -16.31     0.03     0.88     0.20P   50.46R    9.85  
Chorley            10    7  -13      -1.28    40.23    -3.70    37.83     9.64   -43.70     0.00     0.05     0.01P   89.12R   61.17  
Ebbsfleet_United   10    6   -9      -6.44     6.86    -6.97    55.38    10.01    -9.10     0.13     3.29     0.85P   29.79R    4.36  
Chesterfield       10    5   -6      -8.85     2.09    -6.20    54.82     9.99    -5.52     0.12     3.15     0.88P   30.92R    4.72