Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 6 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2019, Arsenal 2 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         4   12   +9       2.59    85.62     1.80    86.69     8.35    57.53    33.86    84.80    95.22    98.34    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          4   10  +11       0.32    54.37     3.21    90.98     7.61    75.24    63.44    94.28    98.59    99.64    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         4    8   +3       1.93    76.22     2.13    55.55     9.34     3.18     0.04     0.45     4.03    10.39    31.85     1.36R    0.14  
Crystal_Palace    4    7   +1       1.47    71.63     0.93    50.14     9.06    -5.47     0.01     0.07     0.98     3.42    14.31     4.45R    0.72  
Arsenal           4    7   +0       1.16    68.50    -0.38    66.70     9.59    21.04     0.75     5.44    26.68    48.60    77.33     0.10R    0.01  
Everton           4    7   +0       0.56    58.46    -1.42    52.84     9.24    -2.31     0.02     0.25     2.23     6.39    22.38     2.44R    0.35  
West_Ham          4    7   -1       1.76    76.09    -0.21    48.90     9.37   -10.61     0.00     0.09     0.98     3.15    12.33     6.63R    1.09  
Man_Utd           4    5   +3      -2.03    23.58     0.72    63.66     9.34    21.58     0.36     3.14    17.63    35.68    68.06     0.14R    0.01  
Tottenham         4    5   +1      -1.65    25.17    -0.83    69.77     9.15    29.87     1.32     9.37    40.56    63.40    86.94     0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         4    5   +0       0.78    63.95     2.04    40.69     9.46   -19.67     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.47     2.78    27.01R    8.35  
Chelsea           4    5   -3      -2.08    22.18    -5.55    61.46     9.45    11.77     0.20     2.03    11.91    26.26    57.94     0.30R    0.03  
Burnley           4    4   -1       0.17    56.32     1.87    42.60     8.94   -14.88     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.53     3.39    18.59R    4.67  
Southampton       4    4   -2      -0.03    52.80     0.45    42.43     9.06   -16.78     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.58     3.65    19.50R    4.97  
Newcastle         4    4   -2      -0.85    39.47    -1.00    45.00     8.87   -10.93     0.00     0.02     0.18     0.86     5.54    11.91R    2.33  
Bournemouth       4    4   -3      -0.39    47.29    -0.52    42.87     9.33   -18.94     0.00     0.02     0.21     0.78     4.06    19.55R    5.27  
Brighton          4    4   -3       0.05    53.66     0.08    37.61     8.60   -23.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.95    37.22R   12.04  
Wolverhampton     4    3   -1      -1.85    24.45    -0.13    45.41     9.04    -8.58     0.00     0.03     0.29     1.07     6.18    11.67R    2.48  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -2      -0.77    39.25     0.99    35.59     9.19   -28.29     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.76    47.40R   19.84  
Norwich           4    3   -4      -0.19    48.05     0.96    35.82     9.54   -32.41     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.18     1.01    47.48R   20.84  
Watford           4    1   -6      -3.91     6.91    -5.15    36.14     8.91   -27.58     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.76    44.25R   16.87  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Birmingham 2 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Swansea          6   16   +8       6.43    97.75     5.97    80.48    10.86    22.42    22.86    39.54    75.61    48.62P    0.13R    0.02  
Charlton         6   14   +6       5.60    94.89     5.72    67.05    11.43     3.32     3.54     7.93    30.13    12.73P    3.58R    0.63  
Leeds_United     6   13   +7       3.34    83.26     4.88    79.10    10.81    23.88    19.31    34.88    72.13    45.50P    0.15R    0.01  
West_Brom        6   12   +3       1.60    66.71    -0.38    79.62    11.00    22.70    21.45    37.29    73.03    47.92P    0.14R    0.01  
Bristol_City     6   11   +3       2.36    75.88     2.40    70.09    10.88     9.13     4.77    11.19    39.91    17.94P    1.62R    0.28  
Fulham           6   10   +5       0.16    51.42     2.59    72.10    11.61    15.92     8.36    17.08    48.15    25.75P    1.46R    0.26  
Preston          6   10   +4       1.06    62.31     2.99    68.29    10.91     8.93     3.58     8.74    34.31    14.73P    2.39R    0.44  
QPR              6   10   +0       2.64    78.94     1.41    56.86    10.63   -13.13     0.29     0.97     7.14     1.98P   17.20R    4.50  
Birmingham       6   10   -2       2.66    79.32    -0.64    59.94    10.55    -9.27     0.49     1.57    11.21     3.44P   10.61R    2.46  
Nott'm_Forest    6    9   +3       1.09    62.88     3.49    66.52    10.71     7.02     2.25     5.89    28.04    10.90P    3.41R    0.62  
Sheff_Wed        6    9   +2       0.01    50.05     0.85    63.25    10.62     1.07     1.26     3.56    18.73     7.00P    5.78R    1.09  
Millwall         6    9   -2       2.25    76.03     0.14    57.95    10.28   -10.08     0.27     0.94     7.73     2.13P   13.70R    3.46  
Cardiff          6    8   -2      -1.14    37.78    -3.35    64.48    11.40     0.52     2.20     5.32    23.28     9.93P    5.85R    1.22  
Brentford        6    7   +1      -1.72    31.30     0.20    67.80    10.90     9.79     3.18     7.93    32.87    14.37P    2.68R    0.49  
Luton            6    7   +0      -0.69    43.30     0.92    59.05    11.70    -5.27     0.82     2.24    12.65     4.62P   14.29R    4.16  
Reading          6    7   +0      -0.01    51.33     1.95    53.58    10.42   -12.68     0.13     0.44     3.96     1.08P   25.18R    7.67  
Blackburn        6    7   -2      -0.22    48.90    -0.34    59.81    10.62    -5.20     0.57     1.64    11.26     3.61P   10.81R    2.56  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -1      -3.16    17.44    -2.37    65.68    10.39     6.43     1.80     4.89    24.98    10.61P    3.24R    0.56  
Derby            6    6   -3      -2.62    22.50    -3.58    66.43    10.88     5.27     2.26     6.09    28.04    11.97P    3.54R    0.65  
Hull             6    5   -3      -2.84    20.73    -2.30    57.23    10.82    -7.73     0.34     1.05     8.18     2.56P   16.24R    4.50  
Barnsley         6    5   -5      -2.40    24.89    -3.84    52.38    11.08   -16.20     0.14     0.45     3.83     1.25P   30.75R   11.06  
Wigan            6    4   -7      -2.91    19.12    -5.11    51.15    10.46   -18.44     0.07     0.22     2.45     0.71P   34.27R   11.79  
Huddersfield     6    1   -6      -5.85     2.48    -4.05    45.66    10.57   -20.40     0.02     0.06     0.86     0.23P   54.11R   26.60  
Stoke            6    1   -9      -6.19     1.96    -7.56    49.60    10.34   -18.00     0.03     0.10     1.53     0.41P   38.88R   14.96  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich               6   14  +10       3.63    86.41     6.78    82.13    10.85    35.17    32.87    51.46    84.47    61.27P    0.07R    0.00  
Lincoln_City          6   12   +8       3.17    81.79     7.13    65.70    10.96    10.18     2.90     7.20    31.21    12.43P    2.62R    0.05  
Blackpool             6   12   +5       2.97    80.24     3.81    67.52    10.09    10.21     2.89     7.46    35.66    13.80P    1.25R    0.02  
Coventry              6   12   +4       3.03    81.37     2.96    64.80    10.15     5.02     1.70     4.83    26.45     9.31P    2.40R    0.02  
Wycombe               6   12   +4       3.12    82.19     2.98    59.16    10.33    -4.59     0.56     1.80    12.63     3.73P    7.92R    0.17  
Sunderland            6   11   +1       0.74    58.51    -2.21    80.25    10.19    28.21    23.71    43.14    80.99    55.49P    0.05R    0.00  
Peterborough          6   10   +6       0.49    55.45     4.08    73.00    10.38    23.33     8.32    19.06    57.89    29.43P    0.35R    0.01  
Burton_Albion         6   10   +3       1.06    62.07     1.95    70.11    10.26    15.15     4.86    12.01    45.95    20.54P    0.76R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        6   10   +2       1.01    62.01     0.94    66.74    10.39     8.94     2.67     7.13    33.60    13.27P    1.70R    0.02  
Rochdale              6    9   +3       1.58    68.40     4.29    56.44    10.18    -5.54     0.23     0.81     8.04     2.03P   12.08R    0.47  
Doncaster             4    8   +2       1.25    66.63     0.05    70.19    10.99    13.25     6.05    13.59    46.22    21.68P    1.15R    0.01  
Shrewsbury            6    8   -2       0.16    53.23    -1.47    59.23     9.90    -3.03     0.38     1.26    11.45     3.43P    6.93R    0.16  
Rotherham             4    7   +0       0.57    58.84    -1.49    67.91    11.88     9.18     5.24    11.63    39.18    18.39P    2.62R    0.08  
Bristol_Rovers        6    7   -2      -1.10    37.60    -1.91    56.67    10.01    -5.70     0.28     0.85     7.91     2.26P   11.35R    0.37  
MK_Dons               5    6   -4       0.02    51.32    -2.55    50.18    10.91   -20.38     0.09     0.32     3.32     0.79P   31.68R    2.68  
Gillingham            5    5   +3      -2.03    26.20     2.81    58.24    10.77     1.72     0.52     1.65    12.41     3.85P   10.27R    0.36  
Portsmouth            5    5   +0      -2.76    18.41    -1.45    70.82    10.72    19.34     6.34    14.54    49.89    25.03P    0.87R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd            6    5   -4      -2.06    27.98    -1.98    56.59    10.48    -5.82     0.32     0.99     8.55     2.37P   13.20R    0.55  
Tranmere              5    4   +0      -1.37    33.93     2.68    45.07    10.76   -20.88     0.02     0.09     1.27     0.28P   49.80R    5.29  
Accrington_Stanley    5    4   -4      -1.90    27.40    -2.49    48.68    10.32   -18.87     0.03     0.13     1.96     0.42P   35.67R    2.87  
AFC_Wimbledon         6    2   -5      -4.23     7.74    -1.75    45.16     9.68   -18.27     0.01     0.04     0.63     0.14P   48.09R    4.44  
Southend              6    0  -13      -6.42     0.76    -9.98    41.66     9.99   -31.65     0.00     0.02     0.33     0.07P   63.11R    9.95  
Bolton                5  -11  -17      -3.46    10.72   -13.17    25.53    10.24   -45.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.05R   72.46  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Crawley_Town 1 0 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            6   14   +4       4.59    91.83     2.25    76.45    10.37    15.31    16.75    41.59    71.96    49.48P    0.09R    0.02  
Newport_County    6   12   +4       4.14    89.01     4.36    69.19    10.40     8.03     5.06    18.35    45.75    24.57P    0.78R    0.26  
Crewe             6   12   +0       4.49    90.52     1.01    67.45    10.60     1.12     3.78    14.52    38.74    19.58P    1.51R    0.54  
Grimsby           6   11   +6       3.28    83.95     6.59    63.90    10.38     3.82     1.99     8.67    27.44    12.54P    2.73R    1.03  
Swindon           6   11   +4       1.94    72.01     2.74    71.59    10.64    12.73     8.52    26.48    55.29    33.55P    0.50R    0.17  
Plymouth          6   10   +4      -0.17    47.71     1.01    78.46    11.41    24.54    25.32    51.33    76.68    59.01P    0.21R    0.08  
Macclesfield      6   10   +3       3.09    82.93     4.87    53.51     9.96   -12.96     0.18     0.93     5.59     1.68P   17.20R    8.08  
Crawley_Town      6   10   +2       2.00    72.43     2.36    58.40    10.37    -7.26     0.61     3.25    13.38     5.17P    8.19R    3.36  
Forest_Green      6   10   +0       1.74    70.08    -0.16    67.59    10.56     4.44     4.10    15.14    39.69    21.00P    1.42R    0.47  
Port_Vale         6    9   -1       1.54    68.63    -0.09    56.40    10.04   -10.63     0.24     1.86     8.91     3.06P   10.84R    4.61  
Cheltenham        6    8   +3      -0.36    46.78     2.77    60.04    10.46    -0.88     0.92     4.53    17.26     7.13P    6.08R    2.47  
Bradford          6    8   +2      -1.83    29.92    -0.32    73.36    11.05    17.56    12.36    32.83    61.74    41.99P    0.46R    0.15  
Cambridge_Utd     6    8   +0       1.15    65.80     1.78    56.01    10.16    -8.72     0.28     1.83     8.67     3.11P   11.99R    5.28  
Colchester        6    8   +0      -0.73    41.99    -0.75    67.22    10.47     6.90     3.84    14.41    39.04    20.73P    1.42R    0.48  
Leyton_Orient     6    8   -2       0.95    62.74    -0.36    50.12    10.54   -20.32     0.09     0.66     3.57     1.14P   29.06R   15.80  
Salford_City      6    7   +0       0.55    58.42     2.89    47.07    10.48   -22.55     0.04     0.33     2.05     0.63P   39.83R   24.69  
Northampton       6    7   +0      -1.26    36.12    -0.10    64.46    10.56     4.12     2.33     9.71    29.60    14.53P    2.74R    0.97  
Carlisle          6    7   -3      -1.39    34.66    -3.23    62.16    10.76    -2.43     1.44     6.90    22.89    10.71P    4.51R    1.84  
Mansfield         6    6   +0      -3.92    11.49    -2.53    70.58    10.45    14.35     6.78    23.21    52.44    32.10P    0.60R    0.18  
Morecambe         6    5   -4      -1.61    32.79    -1.66    50.19    10.07   -17.97     0.07     0.48     2.99     0.89P   27.63R   14.87  
Walsall           6    5   -5      -3.44    15.66    -5.36    64.97    11.01     2.91     2.69    11.10    31.84    16.89P    3.05R    1.21  
Oldham            6    4   -5      -4.01    11.25    -4.78    61.36    10.59    -0.94     1.31     5.76    20.39     9.56P    5.20R    2.15  
Stevenage         6    3   -4      -5.05     5.36    -3.91    55.34    10.36    -6.80     0.23     1.63     8.44     3.30P   13.22R    6.06  
Scunthorpe        6    1   -8      -8.15     0.57    -9.38    58.24    11.49    -4.39     1.07     4.49    15.65     7.66P   10.74R    5.24  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 September 2019, Dag_&_Red 1 1 Bromley; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax             9   22  +11       8.86    98.32     9.74    76.73    10.04    17.13    15.17    56.68    24.14P    0.36R    0.00  
Woking              9   22  +10       9.07    98.04     9.18    74.84    11.41    13.13    14.16    49.08    21.34P    1.31R    0.03  
Bromley             9   19   +6       4.58    85.45     2.78    71.53    10.48     8.24     7.27    36.89    13.35P    1.88R    0.04  
Maidenhead          9   17   +8       4.80    87.36     8.26    63.94    10.08     1.98     1.51    14.18     3.94P    7.74R    0.29  
Stockport           9   17   +5       5.99    91.47     7.06    66.23    11.16     2.77     3.47    21.88     7.19P    7.01R    0.32  
Dover_Athletic      9   16   +3       2.98    75.37     1.99    69.73    10.29     7.43     5.00    30.39    10.63P    2.66R    0.09  
Solihull_Moors      9   14   +6      -0.94    41.04     2.02    72.74    10.28    18.10     8.39    42.90    17.97P    1.35R    0.03  
Hartlepool          9   14   +0       1.51    64.16    -0.20    61.42    10.17    -5.39     0.79     9.81     2.61P   12.70R    0.57  
Yeovil              9   13   +2      -2.12    31.00    -2.09    76.16    10.78    20.70    15.67    55.16    28.66P    0.83R    0.01  
Barnet              8   13   +2       1.56    65.47     1.24    70.43    10.25    10.00     5.31    33.29    12.16P    2.22R    0.06  
Torquay             9   12   -2       2.17    70.50     2.10    52.35    10.95   -19.13     0.18     2.49     0.59P   42.13R    6.00  
Dag_&_Red           9   12   -2       0.41    54.52    -0.85    62.63    10.17    -2.21     0.99    11.57     3.19P   10.29R    0.53  
Harrogate_Town      9   11   -1      -2.06    32.00    -2.00    65.06    10.43     3.82     1.96    17.31     5.66P    7.35R    0.26  
Eastleigh           9   11   -2      -0.23    48.91    -0.26    60.52    10.22    -3.98     0.68     8.41     2.24P   14.61R    0.89  
Notts_County        9   10   +2      -5.54     9.87    -3.06    75.39    10.77    24.70    14.25    53.46    28.17P    0.99R    0.02  
Wrexham             9   10   -2      -3.15    23.04    -3.26    65.62    10.04     5.44     1.94    18.00     6.12P    5.58R    0.19  
Sutton_United       9   10   -2      -2.28    29.98    -1.94    57.22    10.21    -7.43     0.29     4.81     1.25P   23.02R    1.61  
AFC_Fylde           9   10   -5      -4.38    15.24    -8.11    65.77    10.30     2.58     2.18    19.00     6.73P    6.13R    0.22  
Boreham_Wood        9    8   -1      -4.34    15.33    -1.00    54.16     9.91    -7.86     0.15     2.50     0.63P   32.05R    2.52  
Aldershot           8    8   -3      -1.09    40.50    -0.31    51.89     9.89   -14.62     0.06     1.47     0.34P   41.60R    4.59  
Barrow              9    7   -5      -3.86    17.92    -2.82    54.09    10.06   -10.55     0.11     2.26     0.59P   33.14R    3.29  
Chesterfield        9    5   -5      -7.63     3.19    -5.44    57.01    10.33    -3.23     0.29     4.78     1.42P   23.06R    2.05  
Ebbsfleet_United    9    5   -9      -6.14     6.75    -7.04    55.96    10.26    -8.82     0.18     3.68     1.07P   26.97R    2.37  
Chorley             9    4  -16      -2.62    26.06    -5.98    32.84     9.56   -52.80     0.00     0.00     0.00P   95.01R   74.02