Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 5 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2019, Arsenal 2 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         4   12   +9       2.62    85.84     1.83    86.49     8.40    57.16    32.94    84.38    95.14    98.29    99.77     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          4   10  +11       0.29    53.84     3.21    90.99     7.60    75.20    64.30    94.39    98.69    99.65    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         4    8   +3       1.94    76.19     2.15    55.47     9.41     2.98     0.04     0.54     4.02    10.62    32.12     1.39R    0.20  
Crystal_Palace    4    7   +1       1.47    71.49     0.93    50.15     9.20    -5.40     0.01     0.12     1.15     3.71    14.66     4.68R    0.82  
Arsenal           4    7   +0       1.15    68.24    -0.37    66.60     9.62    20.90     0.77     5.66    27.11    48.43    76.95     0.07R    0.01  
Everton           4    7   +0       0.55    58.11    -1.44    52.83     9.26    -2.36     0.01     0.24     2.21     6.61    22.37     2.45R    0.37  
West_Ham          4    7   -1       1.77    76.49    -0.21    48.89     9.37   -10.56     0.01     0.07     0.99     3.03    12.59     6.46R    1.08  
Man_Utd           4    5   +3      -2.04    23.19     0.70    63.63     9.37    21.53     0.39     3.26    17.83    35.91    68.16     0.17R    0.01  
Tottenham         4    5   +1      -1.59    25.98    -0.72    69.44     9.32    29.33     1.35     9.28    39.67    61.97    85.63     0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         4    5   +0       0.79    64.20     2.04    40.75     9.32   -19.57     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.50     2.64    26.52R    8.02  
Chelsea           4    5   -3      -2.08    22.09    -5.54    61.56     9.37    11.89     0.19     1.96    11.97    26.82    58.52     0.27R    0.02  
Burnley           4    4   -1       0.18    56.45     1.84    42.68     8.95   -14.68     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.61     3.45    18.53R    4.58  
Southampton       4    4   -2      -0.04    52.62     0.40    42.45     9.05   -16.70     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.56     3.37    19.69R    4.92  
Newcastle         4    4   -2      -0.89    39.02    -1.05    45.22     8.93   -10.59     0.00     0.02     0.24     0.96     5.77    11.50R    2.27  
Bournemouth       4    4   -3      -0.38    47.27    -0.54    42.80     9.33   -18.94     0.00     0.02     0.20     0.77     4.19    19.70R    5.34  
Brighton          4    4   -3       0.05    53.80     0.05    37.62     8.58   -23.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.92    37.27R   11.96  
Wolverhampton     4    3   -1      -1.83    24.80    -0.10    45.26     9.09    -8.74     0.00     0.01     0.27     1.08     6.03    12.07R    2.52  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -2      -0.81    38.58     0.94    35.88     9.34   -27.72     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.14     0.94    46.56R   19.33  
Norwich           4    3   -4      -0.17    48.61     1.00    35.86     9.67   -32.47     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.18     1.21    47.63R   21.15  
Watford           4    1   -6      -3.90     6.93    -5.11    36.10     8.93   -27.56     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.73    45.01R   17.39  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Birmingham 2 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Swansea          6   16   +8       6.42    97.65     5.92    80.48    10.75    22.45    22.75    39.42    75.83    48.72P    0.08R    0.01  
Charlton         6   14   +6       5.63    94.97     5.76    67.04    11.28     3.32     3.37     7.78    30.10    12.32P    3.62R    0.64  
Leeds_United     6   13   +7       3.35    83.29     4.91    79.16    10.79    23.98    19.54    35.43    72.35    45.89P    0.13R    0.01  
West_Brom        6   12   +3       1.56    66.32    -0.43    79.53    11.00    22.62    21.32    36.94    72.81    47.67P    0.17R    0.02  
Bristol_City     6   11   +3       2.36    75.95     2.36    69.95    10.91     8.96     4.87    11.01    39.53    17.65P    1.67R    0.29  
Fulham           6   10   +5       0.16    51.42     2.56    72.27    11.73    16.14     8.63    17.55    48.89    26.16P    1.49R    0.31  
Preston          6   10   +4       1.07    62.42     2.98    68.15    11.07     8.77     3.62     8.78    34.02    14.78P    2.63R    0.44  
QPR              6   10   +0       2.67    79.25     1.48    56.69    10.60   -13.41     0.29     0.91     7.02     2.00P   17.45R    4.72  
Birmingham       6   10   -2       2.68    79.15    -0.63    60.03    10.54    -9.15     0.52     1.68    11.43     3.42P   10.68R    2.33  
Nott'm_Forest    6    9   +3       1.13    63.17     3.57    66.31    10.67     6.73     2.16     5.76    27.26    10.73P    3.35R    0.57  
Sheff_Wed        6    9   +2      -0.00    50.06     0.84    63.45    10.63     1.35     1.24     3.42    19.42     7.03P    5.58R    1.08  
Millwall         6    9   -2       2.28    76.15     0.19    57.74    10.26   -10.37     0.26     0.92     7.49     2.14P   14.42R    3.60  
Cardiff          6    8   -2      -1.09    38.42    -3.30    64.46    11.32     0.43     2.01     5.20    23.31     9.93P    5.73R    1.13  
Brentford        6    7   +1      -1.79    30.27     0.11    68.05    10.88    10.17     3.31     8.28    33.57    15.10P    2.51R    0.46  
Luton            6    7   +0      -0.67    43.84     0.97    59.14    11.75    -5.26     0.92     2.38    13.03     4.71P   14.32R    4.13  
Reading          6    7   +0      -0.03    51.00     1.93    53.69    10.47   -12.56     0.12     0.40     4.07     1.06P   25.51R    7.72  
Blackburn        6    7   -2      -0.20    48.98    -0.30    59.49    10.75    -5.71     0.56     1.71    11.09     3.73P   11.80R    2.94  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -1      -3.10    17.73    -2.29    65.33    10.38     5.99     1.66     4.52    23.90     9.93P    3.37R    0.59  
Derby            6    6   -3      -2.62    22.66    -3.58    66.37    10.77     5.27     2.22     6.00    27.59    11.83P    3.50R    0.67  
Hull             6    5   -3      -2.84    20.64    -2.27    57.01    10.89    -8.05     0.34     1.09     8.16     2.63P   16.94R    4.86  
Barnsley         6    5   -5      -2.48    24.22    -3.95    52.94    11.00   -15.33     0.15     0.46     4.11     1.24P   29.15R   10.48  
Wigan            6    4   -7      -2.99    18.28    -5.22    51.42    10.38   -18.07     0.07     0.21     2.41     0.64P   32.76R   11.56  
Huddersfield     6    1   -6      -5.90     2.39    -4.11    45.97    10.69   -19.98     0.02     0.04     0.96     0.25P   53.18R   25.91  
Stoke            6    1   -9      -6.16     1.98    -7.50    49.47    10.39   -18.27     0.04     0.12     1.65     0.44P   39.96R   15.54  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich               6   14  +10       3.64    86.36     6.81    82.05    10.91    35.06    32.66    51.04    84.05    61.09P    0.06R    0.00  
Lincoln_City          6   12   +8       3.23    82.38     7.24    65.24    10.88     9.54     2.53     6.54    29.56    11.46P    2.92R    0.07  
Blackpool             6   12   +5       2.90    79.90     3.71    67.89    10.03    10.75     3.05     8.03    36.84    14.56P    1.05R    0.01  
Coventry              6   12   +4       3.05    81.59     2.96    64.67    10.24     4.89     1.82     4.72    26.33     9.26P    2.54R    0.03  
Wycombe               6   12   +4       3.10    81.86     2.96    59.49    10.10    -4.01     0.52     1.73    12.83     3.67P    7.07R    0.13  
Sunderland            6   11   +1       0.76    58.90    -2.17    79.99    10.28    27.84    23.09    42.38    80.01    54.47P    0.05R    0.00  
Peterborough          6   10   +6       0.52    55.98     4.12    72.92    10.46    23.17     8.32    18.96    57.46    29.05P    0.40R    0.00  
Burton_Albion         6   10   +3       1.04    62.01     1.91    70.33    10.31    15.42     5.26    12.54    46.80    21.22P    0.73R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town        6   10   +2       1.01    62.33     0.95    66.81    10.31     9.05     2.64     7.06    33.77    13.31P    1.68R    0.02  
Rochdale              6    9   +3       1.62    68.61     4.37    56.21    10.23    -5.95     0.29     0.88     8.07     2.13P   12.75R    0.47  
Doncaster             4    8   +2       1.22    66.18     0.00    70.38    11.04    13.49     6.25    14.03    47.18    22.14P    1.05R    0.02  
Shrewsbury            6    8   -2       0.15    53.13    -1.49    59.22     9.93    -3.05     0.38     1.31    11.64     3.49P    7.05R    0.22  
Rotherham             4    7   +0       0.55    58.53    -1.52    68.05    11.97     9.29     5.63    12.02    39.41    18.81P    2.47R    0.07  
Bristol_Rovers        6    7   -2      -1.05    38.10    -1.86    56.65    10.05    -5.78     0.24     0.79     8.12     2.28P   11.55R    0.39  
MK_Dons               5    6   -4       0.00    50.79    -2.59    50.23    10.92   -20.18     0.08     0.32     3.41     0.88P   31.72R    2.56  
Gillingham            5    5   +3      -1.98    26.70     2.89    58.30    10.79     1.82     0.57     1.72    12.41     4.00P   10.06R    0.37  
Portsmouth            5    5   +0      -2.77    18.11    -1.46    70.79    10.74    19.26     6.35    14.73    49.52    24.76P    0.87R    0.02  
Oxford_Utd            6    5   -4      -2.07    28.15    -1.97    56.62    10.43    -5.78     0.26     0.94     8.59     2.47P   12.68R    0.53  
Tranmere              5    4   +0      -1.33    34.39     2.72    44.72    10.72   -21.42     0.03     0.09     1.18     0.29P   50.69R    5.93  
Accrington_Stanley    5    4   -4      -1.88    27.72    -2.46    48.42    10.22   -19.24     0.03     0.14     1.88     0.44P   36.12R    2.89  
AFC_Wimbledon         6    2   -5      -4.27     7.77    -1.85    45.35     9.70   -17.89     0.00     0.02     0.66     0.16P   47.14R    4.42  
Southend              6    0  -13      -6.43     0.81   -10.01    41.62    10.00   -31.75     0.01     0.01     0.27     0.05P   63.24R    9.75  
Bolton                5  -11  -17      -3.49    10.48   -13.26    25.74    10.05   -44.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.11R   72.09  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Crawley_Town 1 0 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            6   14   +4       4.61    92.05     2.26    76.34    10.40    15.20    16.49    41.64    71.50    49.44P    0.09R    0.02  
Newport_County    6   12   +4       4.13    89.00     4.35    69.01    10.30     7.81     4.93    17.80    45.20    23.78P    0.89R    0.32  
Crewe             6   12   +0       4.54    90.80     1.04    67.28    10.62     0.87     3.80    14.26    38.24    19.06P    1.63R    0.63  
Grimsby           6   11   +6       3.32    84.44     6.61    63.75    10.37     3.60     1.88     8.39    27.02    12.11P    2.92R    1.00  
Swindon           6   11   +4       1.93    71.58     2.72    71.69    10.64    12.85     8.69    26.36    55.78    33.78P    0.55R    0.18  
Plymouth          6   10   +4      -0.18    47.61     1.00    78.53    11.39    24.69    25.53    51.47    77.16    59.22P    0.15R    0.05  
Macclesfield      6   10   +3       3.13    83.31     4.88    53.52    10.01   -13.02     0.12     0.97     5.73     1.66P   16.84R    7.81  
Crawley_Town      6   10   +2       1.94    71.97     2.27    58.60    10.32    -6.90     0.57     3.31    13.54     5.21P    7.68R    3.09  
Forest_Green      6   10   +0       1.73    69.87    -0.16    67.59    10.53     4.48     4.08    15.16    39.51    20.99P    1.40R    0.49  
Port_Vale         6    9   -1       1.51    68.33    -0.12    56.56    10.07   -10.33     0.32     1.85     9.33     3.30P   10.89R    4.70  
Cheltenham        6    8   +3      -0.29    47.59     2.86    59.84    10.50    -1.18     0.88     4.62    17.02     7.25P    6.28R    2.48  
Bradford          6    8   +2      -1.77    30.48    -0.26    73.08    11.08    17.12    11.87    32.21    60.90    40.96P    0.53R    0.16  
Cambridge_Utd     6    8   +0       1.15    65.29     1.76    56.05    10.15    -8.65     0.28     1.79     8.72     3.02P   11.87R    5.35  
Colchester        6    8   +0      -0.74    42.03    -0.75    67.51    10.52     7.25     4.01    15.02    39.87    21.52P    1.27R    0.43  
Leyton_Orient     6    8   -2       0.97    63.15    -0.32    49.94    10.41   -20.64     0.10     0.65     3.43     1.17P   29.33R   15.96  
Salford_City      6    7   +0       0.54    58.27     2.88    47.18    10.50   -22.34     0.05     0.36     2.09     0.63P   39.86R   24.58  
Northampton       6    7   +0      -1.24    36.18    -0.07    64.47    10.67     4.16     2.38     9.95    29.92    14.88P    2.89R    1.09  
Carlisle          6    7   -3      -1.35    35.37    -3.18    62.13    10.75    -2.53     1.55     6.76    22.66    10.44P    4.69R    1.85  
Mansfield         6    6   +0      -3.91    11.60    -2.51    70.48    10.49    14.18     6.96    23.13    51.99    32.22P    0.63R    0.20  
Morecambe         6    5   -4      -1.61    32.94    -1.65    50.18    10.17   -17.94     0.05     0.51     3.13     0.98P   27.81R   15.24  
Walsall           6    5   -5      -3.43    16.06    -5.34    64.97    11.27     2.96     2.97    11.53    32.00    17.29P    3.50R    1.45  
Oldham            6    4   -5      -4.02    11.07    -4.81    61.45    10.67    -0.85     1.22     5.93    20.80     9.75P    5.26R    2.20  
Stevenage         6    3   -4      -5.10     5.29    -3.96    55.37    10.32    -6.80     0.24     1.71     8.27     3.26P   13.02R    6.03  
Scunthorpe        6    1   -8      -8.23     0.54    -9.51    58.55    11.41    -3.98     1.01     4.61    16.16     8.07P   10.02R    4.71  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 September 2019, Dag_&_Red 1 1 Bromley; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax             9   22  +11       8.88    98.27     9.81    76.50    10.00    16.85    14.40    56.01    23.11P    0.35R    0.01  
Woking              9   22  +10       9.10    97.97     9.20    74.60    11.36    12.86    13.41    48.34    20.58P    1.45R    0.03  
Bromley             9   19   +6       4.55    85.24     2.73    71.58    10.43     8.34     7.42    37.05    13.67P    1.86R    0.05  
Maidenhead          9   17   +8       4.86    87.50     8.35    63.86    10.08     1.83     1.50    14.15     3.83P    8.05R    0.28  
Stockport           9   17   +5       5.96    91.21     7.00    66.27    11.28     2.87     3.60    22.13     7.36P    7.20R    0.38  
Dover_Athletic      9   16   +3       3.01    75.71     2.03    69.57    10.27     7.18     4.86    29.85    10.32P    2.77R    0.09  
Solihull_Moors      9   14   +6      -1.00    40.46     1.89    73.06    10.28    18.58     8.96    43.70    18.61P    1.24R    0.02  
Hartlepool          9   14   +0       1.48    64.08    -0.25    61.47    10.18    -5.31     0.95     9.90     2.60P   12.66R    0.54  
Yeovil              9   13   +2      -2.20    30.35    -2.22    76.46    10.60    21.19    16.15    56.64    29.67P    0.70R    0.01  
Barnet              8   13   +2       1.53    65.20     1.18    70.39    10.27    10.04     5.51    32.56    12.44P    2.28R    0.05  
Torquay             9   12   -2       2.14    69.89     2.06    52.49    11.00   -18.98     0.20     2.67     0.63P   41.52R    5.90  
Dag_&_Red           9   12   -2       0.39    54.41    -0.88    62.64    10.14    -2.25     1.00    11.36     3.26P   10.27R    0.56  
Harrogate_Town      9   11   -1      -2.02    32.28    -1.96    64.92    10.27     3.60     1.82    17.07     5.37P    7.08R    0.24  
Eastleigh           9   11   -2      -0.16    49.77    -0.15    60.33    10.21    -4.27     0.65     8.16     2.19P   14.91R    0.94  
Notts_County        9   10   +2      -5.48    10.05    -2.96    75.40    10.76    24.67    14.27    53.41    27.86P    1.09R    0.02  
Wrexham             9   10   -2      -3.16    22.99    -3.27    65.71    10.11     5.55     2.07    18.45     6.46P    5.66R    0.24  
Sutton_United       9   10   -2      -2.26    30.04    -1.92    57.21    10.10    -7.45     0.29     4.60     1.21P   22.91R    1.50  
AFC_Fylde           9   10   -5      -4.32    15.75    -8.03    65.60    10.34     2.30     2.10    18.56     6.49P    6.52R    0.23  
Boreham_Wood        9    8   -1      -4.33    15.45    -0.97    54.13     9.96    -7.90     0.13     2.59     0.72P   32.17R    2.71  
Aldershot           8    8   -3      -1.04    41.10    -0.24    51.77     9.80   -14.78     0.05     1.33     0.29P   41.89R    4.81  
Barrow              9    7   -5      -3.88    17.91    -2.86    54.25    10.05   -10.38     0.10     2.55     0.67P   32.62R    3.00  
Chesterfield        9    5   -5      -7.66     3.00    -5.46    57.23    10.42    -2.95     0.37     5.14     1.59P   22.83R    1.93  
Ebbsfleet_United    9    5   -9      -6.16     6.34    -7.08    56.01    10.30    -8.73     0.23     3.74     1.08P   27.12R    2.42  
Chorley             9    4  -16      -2.64    25.73    -6.00    32.82     9.60   -52.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.85R   74.06