Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 4 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2019, Arsenal 2 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         4   12   +9       2.59    85.62     1.80    86.64     8.29    57.31    33.49    85.24    95.36    98.41    99.78     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          4   10  +11       0.30    54.15     3.21    90.99     7.63    75.26    63.99    94.64    98.77    99.69    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         4    8   +3       1.93    76.21     2.14    55.59     9.39     3.19     0.03     0.48     4.20    10.88    32.31     1.39R    0.19  
Crystal_Palace    4    7   +1       1.50    72.04     0.98    49.88     9.16    -5.79     0.01     0.09     1.07     3.28    13.79     5.04R    0.73  
Arsenal           4    7   +0       1.16    68.53    -0.35    66.29     9.55    20.34     0.69     5.02    26.16    47.38    75.75     0.11R    0.02  
Everton           4    7   +0       0.52    57.68    -1.48    53.11     9.31    -1.90     0.01     0.23     2.33     6.69    23.45     2.44R    0.36  
West_Ham          4    7   -1       1.73    75.91    -0.26    49.19     9.41   -10.07     0.00     0.08     1.03     3.31    13.22     6.17R    1.06  
Man_Utd           4    5   +3      -2.02    23.52     0.73    63.60     9.29    21.46     0.33     3.05    17.62    35.89    67.86     0.18R    0.03  
Tottenham         4    5   +1      -1.61    25.71    -0.75    69.45     9.16    29.27     1.23     9.10    39.99    62.49    85.98     0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         4    5   +0       0.80    64.42     2.06    40.52     9.37   -19.87     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.51     2.65    27.24R    8.26  
Chelsea           4    5   -3      -2.08    22.14    -5.55    61.59     9.35    12.00     0.22     2.00    12.10    26.65    58.69     0.27R    0.03  
Burnley           4    4   -1       0.18    56.52     1.87    42.58     8.97   -14.92     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.59     3.47    18.93R    4.76  
Southampton       4    4   -2      -0.05    52.41     0.40    42.53     9.01   -16.49     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.57     3.44    19.26R    4.95  
Newcastle         4    4   -2      -0.88    39.29    -1.05    45.12     8.87   -10.70     0.00     0.02     0.21     0.96     5.48    11.70R    2.31  
Bournemouth       4    4   -3      -0.39    47.16    -0.56    42.91     9.36   -18.85     0.00     0.02     0.26     0.86     4.21    19.45R    5.06  
Brighton          4    4   -3       0.05    53.83     0.09    37.65     8.56   -23.73     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.87    37.08R   11.93  
Wolverhampton     4    3   -1      -1.85    24.68    -0.12    45.46     9.14    -8.52     0.00     0.02     0.34     1.27     6.32    11.74R    2.71  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -2      -0.79    38.87     0.95    35.77     9.25   -27.86     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14     0.90    46.87R   19.47  
Norwich           4    3   -4      -0.17    48.44     0.98    35.82     9.49   -32.42     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.18     1.13    47.17R   20.59  
Watford           4    1   -6      -3.87     7.00    -5.07    36.05     8.95   -27.73     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.74    44.97R   17.54  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Birmingham 2 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Swansea          6   16   +8       6.48    97.73     6.00    80.39    10.74    22.29    22.25    38.78    75.53    48.22P    0.11R    0.01  
Charlton         6   14   +6       5.58    94.93     5.70    67.25    11.25     3.60     3.23     7.84    30.68    12.55P    3.30R    0.65  
Leeds_United     6   13   +7       3.32    83.19     4.89    79.13    10.79    23.91    19.07    34.81    72.31    45.44P    0.16R    0.02  
West_Brom        6   12   +3       1.56    66.45    -0.46    79.94    11.06    23.20    22.35    38.31    73.82    49.02P    0.19R    0.04  
Bristol_City     6   11   +3       2.36    75.62     2.38    70.12    10.92     9.21     4.78    11.24    40.00    18.03P    1.65R    0.28  
Fulham           6   10   +5       0.17    51.68     2.60    71.96    11.78    15.73     8.63    17.09    47.59    25.49P    1.61R    0.28  
Preston          6   10   +4       1.00    61.76     2.89    68.44    11.07     9.17     3.93     9.26    34.92    15.39P    2.40R    0.42  
QPR              6   10   +0       2.61    78.64     1.35    57.08    10.60   -12.78     0.32     0.97     7.34     2.02P   16.58R    4.33  
Birmingham       6   10   -2       2.67    79.35    -0.63    59.99    10.62    -9.18     0.57     1.64    11.60     3.61P   10.66R    2.44  
Nott'm_Forest    6    9   +3       1.15    63.70     3.59    66.43    10.80     6.91     2.25     5.88    28.01    10.91P    3.36R    0.58  
Sheff_Wed        6    9   +2       0.02    50.28     0.89    63.25    10.63     1.06     1.28     3.37    18.87     6.92P    5.67R    1.09  
Millwall         6    9   -2       2.25    76.08     0.17    57.82    10.25   -10.24     0.25     0.88     7.44     2.08P   14.03R    3.45  
Cardiff          6    8   -2      -1.16    37.67    -3.40    64.30    11.42     0.20     2.07     5.19    23.04     9.78P    5.86R    1.26  
Brentford        6    7   +1      -1.76    30.63     0.14    67.94    10.90     9.96     3.09     8.02    33.11    14.50P    2.66R    0.54  
Luton            6    7   +0      -0.68    43.55     0.95    58.90    11.74    -5.58     0.81     2.33    12.44     4.63P   14.82R    4.32  
Reading          6    7   +0      -0.03    51.18     1.92    53.90    10.35   -12.17     0.11     0.38     4.00     1.04P   24.14R    7.10  
Blackburn        6    7   -2      -0.21    49.08    -0.29    59.61    10.79    -5.58     0.57     1.76    11.38     3.70P   11.51R    2.86  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -1      -3.11    17.56    -2.30    65.44    10.34     6.10     1.68     4.60    23.99    10.03P    3.34R    0.57  
Derby            6    6   -3      -2.60    22.65    -3.56    66.27    10.75     5.05     2.16     5.69    27.18    11.40P    3.41R    0.59  
Hull             6    5   -3      -2.85    20.91    -2.29    57.23    10.99    -7.73     0.39     1.16     8.44     2.87P   16.63R    4.73  
Barnsley         6    5   -5      -2.43    24.63    -3.90    52.53    10.96   -15.88     0.12     0.41     3.72     1.09P   29.87R   10.78  
Wigan            6    4   -7      -2.89    19.26    -5.08    50.83    10.25   -18.90     0.04     0.18     2.11     0.56P   35.01R   12.19  
Huddersfield     6    1   -6      -5.82     2.47    -4.00    45.56    10.57   -20.55     0.02     0.08     0.83     0.25P   54.65R   26.75  
Stoke            6    1   -9      -6.20     1.90    -7.55    49.84    10.37   -17.79     0.03     0.12     1.63     0.47P   38.38R   14.71  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich               6   14  +10       3.59    86.22     6.75    82.15    10.85    35.17    32.96    51.54    84.36    61.48P    0.05R    0.00  
Lincoln_City          6   12   +8       3.17    82.25     7.14    65.68    10.83    10.20     2.71     6.88    31.08    12.00P    2.58R    0.05  
Blackpool             6   12   +5       2.98    80.35     3.83    67.44    10.06    10.09     2.72     7.49    35.65    13.83P    1.31R    0.01  
Coventry              6   12   +4       3.06    81.52     2.98    64.67    10.09     4.88     1.69     4.69    25.80     9.01P    2.53R    0.04  
Wycombe               6   12   +4       3.10    81.89     2.93    59.39    10.23    -4.07     0.55     1.74    12.87     3.73P    7.41R    0.17  
Sunderland            6   11   +1       0.76    58.87    -2.21    80.17    10.26    28.13    24.03    43.03    80.88    55.36P    0.06R    0.00  
Peterborough          6   10   +6       0.52    55.93     4.12    72.92    10.51    23.15     8.40    19.26    57.86    29.46P    0.46R    0.01  
Burton_Albion         6   10   +3       1.09    62.54     1.98    69.94    10.37    14.93     4.70    11.87    45.81    20.37P    0.85R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town        6   10   +2       1.02    62.29     0.95    66.70    10.34     8.89     2.60     6.95    33.40    13.09P    1.86R    0.03  
Rochdale              6    9   +3       1.60    68.39     4.35    56.28    10.29    -5.82     0.26     0.86     8.20     2.15P   12.78R    0.50  
Doncaster             4    8   +2       1.24    66.41     0.05    70.23    11.04    13.31     6.10    13.86    46.87    22.03P    1.27R    0.01  
Shrewsbury            6    8   -2       0.15    53.12    -1.50    59.43     9.96    -2.75     0.39     1.40    12.19     3.64P    6.97R    0.17  
Rotherham             4    7   +0       0.59    59.29    -1.47    67.91    11.81     9.02     5.18    11.50    39.20    18.32P    2.59R    0.08  
Bristol_Rovers        6    7   -2      -1.10    37.62    -1.91    56.75    10.01    -5.54     0.23     0.81     7.78     2.20P   11.43R    0.40  
MK_Dons               5    6   -4      -0.00    50.77    -2.59    50.28    11.03   -20.12     0.10     0.32     3.57     0.88P   31.99R    2.56  
Gillingham            5    5   +3      -2.04    26.04     2.78    58.37    10.70     1.95     0.64     1.77    12.38     4.12P    9.81R    0.29  
Portsmouth            5    5   +0      -2.79    17.99    -1.49    70.73    10.86    19.23     6.46    14.94    49.43    25.13P    0.99R    0.02  
Oxford_Utd            6    5   -4      -2.07    27.98    -1.96    56.41    10.47    -6.12     0.20     0.82     8.37     2.28P   13.52R    0.56  
Tranmere              5    4   +0      -1.37    34.00     2.69    45.01    10.67   -21.02     0.03     0.08     1.19     0.28P   49.44R    5.62  
Accrington_Stanley    5    4   -4      -1.89    27.68    -2.49    48.67    10.36   -18.81     0.04     0.16     2.07     0.43P   35.71R    2.77  
AFC_Wimbledon         6    2   -5      -4.24     7.78    -1.79    45.21     9.78   -18.20     0.00     0.02     0.67     0.14P   47.86R    4.55  
Southend              6    0  -13      -6.43     0.77   -10.03    41.90     9.96   -31.23     0.00     0.02     0.35     0.07P   62.59R    8.93  
Bolton                5  -11  -17      -3.44    11.00   -13.12    25.39    10.22   -45.28     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   95.95R   73.22  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Crawley_Town 1 0 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            6   14   +4       4.57    91.90     2.21    76.47    10.36    15.38    16.55    41.82    72.10    49.75P    0.08R    0.02  
Newport_County    6   12   +4       4.12    89.13     4.34    69.08    10.34     7.82     4.89    17.85    45.21    23.91P    0.90R    0.29  
Crewe             6   12   +0       4.52    90.57     1.00    67.39    10.70     1.04     3.87    14.43    38.80    19.42P    1.64R    0.61  
Grimsby           6   11   +6       3.28    84.01     6.57    63.99    10.42     3.97     2.01     8.52    27.68    12.34P    2.67R    0.95  
Swindon           6   11   +4       1.95    72.09     2.75    71.77    10.66    12.96     8.76    26.57    55.58    33.78P    0.51R    0.15  
Plymouth          6   10   +4      -0.15    47.92     1.03    78.61    11.37    24.78    25.55    51.43    77.20    59.43P    0.14R    0.04  
Macclesfield      6   10   +3       3.14    83.44     4.92    53.40     9.95   -13.17     0.13     0.95     5.47     1.66P   17.09R    7.71  
Crawley_Town      6   10   +2       1.99    72.28     2.35    58.24    10.39    -7.53     0.65     3.27    12.88     5.05P    8.39R    3.51  
Forest_Green      6   10   +0       1.76    70.20    -0.13    67.64    10.63     4.51     4.04    15.20    39.82    20.92P    1.45R    0.51  
Port_Vale         6    9   -1       1.45    67.96    -0.20    56.84    10.08   -10.00     0.31     2.04     9.67     3.48P   10.17R    4.43  
Cheltenham        6    8   +3      -0.33    47.18     2.82    59.93    10.46    -1.05     0.91     4.48    17.10     7.10P    6.04R    2.45  
Bradford          6    8   +2      -1.79    30.48    -0.26    73.03    11.30    17.14    11.97    32.17    60.35    40.84P    0.56R    0.23  
Cambridge_Utd     6    8   +0       1.18    65.92     1.80    55.85    10.11    -8.99     0.25     1.73     8.30     2.89P   11.87R    5.35  
Colchester        6    8   +0      -0.75    42.22    -0.76    67.49    10.55     7.25     3.84    15.23    39.75    21.63P    1.40R    0.45  
Leyton_Orient     6    8   -2       0.96    62.80    -0.33    49.85    10.55   -20.84     0.11     0.65     3.50     1.12P   29.87R   16.34  
Salford_City      6    7   +0       0.53    58.15     2.86    47.23    10.54   -22.22     0.03     0.31     2.12     0.59P   39.22R   24.27  
Northampton       6    7   +0      -1.28    35.92    -0.11    64.69    10.78     4.43     2.57    10.26    30.53    15.01P    2.81R    1.09  
Carlisle          6    7   -3      -1.40    34.80    -3.24    62.12    10.65    -2.48     1.41     6.56    22.44    10.41P    4.47R    1.67  
Mansfield         6    6   +0      -3.90    11.84    -2.49    70.51    10.61    14.23     6.84    23.28    52.17    32.51P    0.76R    0.22  
Morecambe         6    5   -4      -1.62    32.65    -1.66    50.21    10.11   -17.85     0.05     0.45     3.01     0.92P   27.69R   14.90  
Walsall           6    5   -5      -3.41    16.07    -5.32    65.12    11.16     3.18     2.95    11.43    32.47    17.35P    3.16R    1.24  
Oldham            6    4   -5      -4.00    11.37    -4.77    61.16    10.56    -1.28     1.10     5.38    19.84     9.11P    5.33R    2.22  
Stevenage         6    3   -4      -5.07     5.50    -3.91    55.24    10.36    -7.02     0.20     1.59     8.24     3.02P   13.34R    6.18  
Scunthorpe        6    1   -8      -8.19     0.52    -9.44    58.33    11.44    -4.26     1.02     4.40    15.77     7.76P   10.43R    5.19  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 September 2019, Dag_&_Red 1 1 Bromley; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax             9   22  +11       8.86    98.36     9.77    76.67     9.96    17.10    14.83    56.46    23.95P    0.36R    0.01  
Woking              9   22  +10       9.06    98.07     9.15    74.80    11.20    13.21    13.61    48.89    20.91P    1.30R    0.02  
Bromley             9   19   +6       4.53    84.97     2.72    71.60    10.52     8.42     7.51    37.09    13.91P    1.91R    0.03  
Maidenhead          9   17   +8       4.88    87.46     8.38    63.67    10.05     1.58     1.43    13.64     3.58P    8.33R    0.25  
Stockport           9   17   +5       5.99    91.42     7.05    66.19    11.11     2.70     3.42    21.52     6.98P    6.84R    0.34  
Dover_Athletic      9   16   +3       3.01    75.89     2.01    69.73    10.27     7.42     4.89    30.71    10.67P    2.81R    0.08  
Solihull_Moors      9   14   +6      -0.90    41.57     2.05    72.73    10.20    18.03     8.50    42.27    17.71P    1.23R    0.02  
Hartlepool          9   14   +0       1.48    64.19    -0.23    61.47    10.17    -5.27     0.84     9.78     2.62P   12.59R    0.49  
Yeovil              9   13   +2      -2.19    30.32    -2.21    76.37    10.61    20.98    16.05    56.17    28.98P    0.75R    0.02  
Barnet              8   13   +2       1.52    65.28     1.17    70.55    10.30    10.24     5.32    33.49    12.19P    2.28R    0.05  
Torquay             9   12   -2       2.13    70.10     2.06    52.53    10.96   -18.88     0.21     2.76     0.75P   41.68R    5.41  
Dag_&_Red           9   12   -2       0.38    54.33    -0.87    62.89    10.16    -1.87     1.07    11.95     3.33P    9.95R    0.50  
Harrogate_Town      9   11   -1      -2.06    32.11    -2.04    65.04    10.34     3.82     1.98    17.46     5.83P    7.12R    0.29  
Eastleigh           9   11   -2      -0.15    49.72    -0.16    60.18    10.17    -4.50     0.66     7.79     2.15P   15.20R    0.90  
Notts_County        9   10   +2      -5.49    10.13    -2.98    75.33    10.81    24.56    14.48    53.34    28.14P    1.05R    0.03  
Wrexham             9   10   -2      -3.10    23.42    -3.20    65.61    10.13     5.40     2.02    18.33     6.37P    5.83R    0.23  
Sutton_United       9   10   -2      -2.34    29.38    -2.06    57.33    10.06    -7.29     0.30     4.66     1.24P   22.35R    1.45  
AFC_Fylde           9   10   -5      -4.34    15.48    -8.07    65.70    10.23     2.40     2.03    18.73     6.48P    6.22R    0.20  
Boreham_Wood        9    8   -1      -4.35    15.33    -1.02    54.32    10.04    -7.62     0.11     2.64     0.66P   31.88R    2.59  
Aldershot           8    8   -3      -1.05    40.87    -0.25    51.81     9.93   -14.75     0.05     1.42     0.33P   41.95R    4.76  
Barrow              9    7   -5      -3.93    17.63    -2.92    54.31    10.06   -10.20     0.16     2.56     0.71P   32.26R    3.11  
Chesterfield        9    5   -5      -7.58     3.49    -5.33    56.96    10.41    -3.38     0.31     4.77     1.46P   23.59R    2.06  
Ebbsfleet_United    9    5   -9      -6.21     6.29    -7.12    55.89    10.24    -8.88     0.19     3.54     1.04P   27.34R    2.40  
Chorley             9    4  -16      -2.58    26.25    -5.89    32.66     9.56   -53.21     0.00     0.02     0.00P   95.18R   74.75