Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 3 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2019, Arsenal 2 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         4   12   +9       2.62    85.85     1.82    86.52     8.38    57.22    32.95    84.10    94.91    98.27    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          4   10  +11       0.32    54.40     3.25    91.05     7.66    75.58    64.25    94.24    98.58    99.63    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         4    8   +3       1.93    76.17     2.13    55.46     9.34     3.01     0.04     0.51     3.85    10.35    31.90     1.36R    0.19  
Crystal_Palace    4    7   +1       1.49    71.85     0.96    49.94     9.11    -5.74     0.01     0.09     0.97     3.38    13.80     4.67R    0.75  
Arsenal           4    7   +0       1.14    67.99    -0.41    66.72     9.61    21.15     0.84     5.85    26.75    48.62    77.10     0.07R    0.01  
Everton           4    7   +0       0.54    58.00    -1.47    52.88     9.30    -2.27     0.01     0.20     2.29     6.40    22.63     2.59R    0.37  
West_Ham          4    7   -1       1.78    76.46    -0.19    48.86     9.36   -10.63     0.00     0.07     0.89     2.88    12.53     6.64R    1.14  
Man_Utd           4    5   +3      -2.05    23.42     0.70    63.79     9.33    21.81     0.37     3.35    17.92    36.29    68.50     0.12R    0.01  
Tottenham         4    5   +1      -1.64    25.26    -0.78    69.71     9.27    29.74     1.32     9.52    40.51    62.94    86.18     0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         4    5   +0       0.81    64.21     2.07    40.54     9.38   -20.04     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.51     2.69    27.26R    8.21  
Chelsea           4    5   -3      -2.08    22.04    -5.54    61.53     9.40    11.86     0.22     1.97    12.04    26.29    58.20     0.31R    0.03  
Burnley           4    4   -1       0.17    56.46     1.88    42.70     9.01   -14.68     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.62     3.61    18.57R    4.54  
Southampton       4    4   -2      -0.04    52.66     0.40    42.45     9.05   -16.63     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.52     3.38    19.63R    4.83  
Newcastle         4    4   -2      -0.88    39.41    -1.05    45.26     8.87   -10.55     0.00     0.01     0.25     0.94     5.69    11.22R    2.16  
Bournemouth       4    4   -3      -0.42    46.87    -0.61    43.09     9.37   -18.55     0.00     0.01     0.23     0.82     4.42    18.82R    4.82  
Brighton          4    4   -3       0.06    54.00     0.07    37.60     8.57   -23.79     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.85    37.18R   11.67  
Wolverhampton     4    3   -1      -1.83    24.85    -0.10    45.37     9.08    -8.63     0.00     0.03     0.27     1.05     5.98    11.67R    2.61  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -2      -0.76    39.28     1.01    35.63     9.32   -28.38     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14     0.94    47.40R   19.96  
Norwich           4    3   -4      -0.19    48.11     0.99    35.71     9.56   -32.73     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.19     1.08    47.81R   21.19  
Watford           4    1   -6      -3.91     6.89    -5.12    36.09     8.93   -27.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.72    44.65R   17.53  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Birmingham 2 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Swansea          6   16   +8       6.40    97.62     5.91    80.77    10.76    22.81    23.01    40.20    76.50    49.41P    0.09R    0.01  
Charlton         6   14   +6       5.55    94.68     5.64    67.46    11.48     3.93     3.66     8.38    31.58    13.31P    3.54R    0.62  
Leeds_United     6   13   +7       3.35    83.31     4.91    79.07    10.82    23.80    18.95    34.63    71.97    45.24P    0.17R    0.01  
West_Brom        6   12   +3       1.54    66.25    -0.50    79.94    10.96    23.20    21.64    37.71    74.33    48.81P    0.14R    0.01  
Bristol_City     6   11   +3       2.35    75.89     2.36    70.11    10.96     9.25     4.81    11.22    39.78    18.07P    1.73R    0.23  
Fulham           6   10   +5       0.13    51.18     2.53    72.06    11.82    15.84     8.54    17.26    47.71    25.49P    1.61R    0.27  
Preston          6   10   +4       1.06    62.42     2.97    68.18    11.10     8.76     3.58     8.60    34.18    14.70P    2.66R    0.48  
QPR              6   10   +0       2.62    78.61     1.40    57.03    10.54   -12.89     0.28     0.91     7.41     2.01P   16.38R    4.12  
Birmingham       6   10   -2       2.65    79.31    -0.65    60.08    10.50    -9.04     0.54     1.66    11.16     3.50P   10.14R    2.38  
Nott'm_Forest    6    9   +3       1.13    63.31     3.56    66.60    10.63     7.08     2.18     5.84    28.13    10.87P    3.06R    0.53  
Sheff_Wed        6    9   +2      -0.01    49.79     0.81    63.34    10.59     1.23     1.28     3.46    18.84     6.78P    5.52R    1.07  
Millwall         6    9   -2       2.31    76.69     0.27    57.69    10.33   -10.47     0.30     0.93     7.39     2.13P   14.64R    3.76  
Cardiff          6    8   -2      -1.15    37.56    -3.39    64.34    11.29     0.27     2.05     4.92    22.68     9.45P    5.67R    1.12  
Brentford        6    7   +1      -1.79    30.23     0.11    68.11    10.85    10.23     3.31     8.16    33.34    14.94P    2.45R    0.43  
Luton            6    7   +0      -0.66    43.74     1.01    58.70    11.71    -5.92     0.85     2.15    12.12     4.35P   15.02R    4.20  
Reading          6    7   +0      -0.04    51.01     1.93    53.82    10.45   -12.29     0.11     0.40     4.13     1.06P   24.75R    7.42  
Blackburn        6    7   -2      -0.19    49.03    -0.28    59.58    10.67    -5.59     0.55     1.62    10.88     3.60P   11.27R    2.80  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -1      -3.12    17.50    -2.31    65.41    10.45     6.06     1.72     4.62    24.04    10.02P    3.46R    0.60  
Derby            6    6   -3      -2.59    22.77    -3.55    66.19    10.74     4.97     2.07     5.40    26.96    11.09P    3.41R    0.60  
Hull             6    5   -3      -2.89    20.11    -2.34    57.65    10.86    -7.15     0.36     1.17     8.77     2.93P   15.51R    4.18  
Barnsley         6    5   -5      -2.41    25.00    -3.87    52.34    11.01   -16.20     0.13     0.43     3.71     1.11P   30.71R   10.83  
Wigan            6    4   -7      -2.89    19.32    -5.10    50.96    10.23   -18.75     0.03     0.13     2.00     0.51P   34.11R   11.90  
Huddersfield     6    1   -6      -5.81     2.58    -3.98    45.58    10.54   -20.64     0.02     0.07     0.81     0.22P   54.20R   26.60  
Stoke            6    1   -9      -6.13     1.92    -7.44    49.32    10.39   -18.51     0.03     0.14     1.57     0.40P   39.78R   15.83  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich               6   14  +10       3.63    86.29     6.78    81.99    10.89    34.97    32.31    50.93    84.04    60.88P    0.06R    0.00  
Lincoln_City          6   12   +8       3.17    81.69     7.13    65.68    11.00    10.17     2.94     7.09    30.99    12.23P    2.65R    0.04  
Blackpool             6   12   +5       2.91    79.76     3.73    67.72    10.13    10.51     3.05     8.11    36.37    14.47P    1.12R    0.00  
Coventry              6   12   +4       3.01    81.15     2.91    64.59    10.13     4.83     1.54     4.34    25.74     8.79P    2.52R    0.04  
Wycombe               6   12   +4       3.08    82.14     2.91    59.49    10.33    -4.07     0.61     1.88    13.36     3.82P    7.44R    0.12  
Sunderland            6   11   +1       0.75    58.78    -2.19    80.11    10.20    27.97    23.73    42.68    80.54    54.84P    0.04R    0.00  
Peterborough          6   10   +6       0.52    55.83     4.09    72.85    10.44    23.03     8.13    18.75    57.43    29.03P    0.39R    0.00  
Burton_Albion         6   10   +3       1.08    62.43     1.97    69.92    10.30    14.84     4.78    11.88    45.28    20.35P    0.78R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town        6   10   +2       0.98    62.00     0.91    66.81    10.28     9.07     2.58     6.81    33.34    12.81P    1.70R    0.03  
Rochdale              6    9   +3       1.66    69.04     4.38    56.25    10.15    -5.76     0.22     0.80     7.78     2.07P   12.37R    0.41  
Doncaster             4    8   +2       1.23    66.13     0.03    70.47    11.01    13.67     6.50    14.40    47.17    22.38P    1.07R    0.02  
Shrewsbury            6    8   -2       0.14    53.09    -1.49    59.48    10.04    -2.70     0.46     1.55    12.43     3.76P    6.92R    0.19  
Rotherham             4    7   +0       0.52    58.50    -1.57    68.19    11.75     9.56     5.30    11.66    39.60    18.78P    2.35R    0.05  
Bristol_Rovers        6    7   -2      -1.13    37.30    -1.93    56.77    10.04    -5.57     0.26     0.85     7.91     2.27P   11.15R    0.29  
MK_Dons               5    6   -4      -0.01    50.79    -2.60    50.38    10.94   -19.93     0.12     0.43     3.36     0.90P   30.93R    2.44  
Gillingham            5    5   +3      -1.99    26.49     2.85    58.33    10.78     1.85     0.59     1.72    12.45     4.02P   10.03R    0.33  
Portsmouth            5    5   +0      -2.77    18.11    -1.49    70.90    10.79    19.45     6.54    14.95    49.82    25.24P    0.92R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd            6    5   -4      -2.01    28.71    -1.90    56.34    10.55    -6.23     0.26     0.89     8.48     2.46P   13.66R    0.50  
Tranmere              5    4   +0      -1.34    34.36     2.72    44.84    10.87   -21.28     0.02     0.10     1.25     0.30P   50.09R    5.75  
Accrington_Stanley    5    4   -4      -1.86    27.86    -2.45    48.47    10.16   -19.06     0.03     0.12     1.77     0.40P   36.01R    2.70  
AFC_Wimbledon         6    2   -5      -4.19     7.98    -1.70    45.07     9.68   -18.41     0.01     0.04     0.55     0.13P   48.59R    4.38  
Southend              6    0  -13      -6.42     0.80    -9.96    41.69    10.03   -31.65     0.00     0.02     0.33     0.06P   63.01R    9.48  
Bolton                5  -11  -17      -3.44    10.90   -13.14    25.34    10.07   -45.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.19R   73.21  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Crawley_Town 1 0 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            6   14   +4       4.56    91.94     2.22    76.63    10.43    15.60    17.05    42.81    72.40    50.57P    0.13R    0.05  
Newport_County    6   12   +4       4.14    89.04     4.36    68.97    10.38     7.71     4.88    17.80    45.07    23.97P    0.81R    0.24  
Crewe             6   12   +0       4.51    90.49     1.00    67.49    10.55     1.23     3.68    14.60    38.79    19.40P    1.49R    0.45  
Grimsby           6   11   +6       3.31    84.22     6.63    63.72    10.37     3.54     1.92     8.22    26.97    11.92P    2.90R    1.05  
Swindon           6   11   +4       1.94    71.79     2.74    71.67    10.68    12.83     8.76    26.44    55.58    33.82P    0.51R    0.18  
Plymouth          6   10   +4      -0.10    48.61     1.11    78.32    11.31    24.28    24.94    50.68    76.70    58.80P    0.17R    0.05  
Macclesfield      6   10   +3       3.07    83.00     4.82    53.69     9.97   -12.67     0.14     1.05     5.84     1.81P   16.52R    7.56  
Crawley_Town      6   10   +2       2.00    72.57     2.37    58.43    10.33    -7.30     0.66     3.34    13.42     5.20P    8.18R    3.21  
Forest_Green      6   10   +0       1.76    70.23    -0.14    67.53    10.57     4.38     3.87    15.01    39.78    20.80P    1.48R    0.58  
Port_Vale         6    9   -1       1.56    68.84    -0.07    56.38    10.11   -10.66     0.37     1.92     9.02     3.30P   11.27R    4.81  
Cheltenham        6    8   +3      -0.28    47.96     2.89    59.58    10.46    -1.56     0.91     4.23    16.11     6.70P    6.60R    2.83  
Bradford          6    8   +2      -1.77    30.50    -0.26    73.10    11.25    17.20    12.20    32.32    60.92    41.28P    0.57R    0.19  
Cambridge_Utd     6    8   +0       1.17    65.75     1.78    55.94    10.06    -8.80     0.26     1.64     8.27     2.78P   11.91R    5.33  
Colchester        6    8   +0      -0.79    41.40    -0.84    67.56    10.56     7.37     4.13    15.28    40.22    21.82P    1.35R    0.47  
Leyton_Orient     6    8   -2       0.93    62.71    -0.40    50.24    10.51   -20.15     0.14     0.72     3.71     1.28P   28.88R   15.74  
Salford_City      6    7   +0       0.48    57.63     2.79    47.42    10.52   -21.94     0.05     0.38     2.25     0.72P   38.97R   24.04  
Northampton       6    7   +0      -1.27    36.27    -0.10    64.61    10.66     4.34     2.38    10.03    30.36    14.89P    2.73R    1.11  
Carlisle          6    7   -3      -1.38    34.94    -3.24    62.09    10.61    -2.56     1.45     6.61    22.53    10.21P    4.49R    1.79  
Mansfield         6    6   +0      -3.91    11.67    -2.49    70.38    10.47    14.07     6.77    22.64    51.42    31.42P    0.63R    0.18  
Morecambe         6    5   -4      -1.62    32.51    -1.67    50.21    10.18   -17.94     0.05     0.45     3.05     0.90P   28.03R   15.40  
Walsall           6    5   -5      -3.47    15.51    -5.40    65.27    11.10     3.36     2.94    11.77    32.95    17.73P    2.95R    1.19  
Oldham            6    4   -5      -4.05    10.97    -4.84    61.57    10.65    -0.72     1.32     6.06    21.35     9.97P    5.08R    2.15  
Stevenage         6    3   -4      -5.04     5.49    -3.87    55.19    10.23    -6.98     0.23     1.60     7.90     3.14P   13.31R    5.99  
Scunthorpe        6    1   -8      -8.17     0.55    -9.41    58.13    11.46    -4.62     0.89     4.39    15.39     7.55P   11.00R    5.43  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 September 2019, Barrow 0 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Halifax             9   22  +11       8.92    98.41     9.85    76.40     9.95    16.68    13.89    55.06    22.61P    0.40R    0.00  
Woking              9   22  +10       9.06    98.07     9.13    74.80    11.29    13.14    13.76    48.70    21.04P    1.39R    0.03  
Bromley             8   18   +6       4.94    88.86     2.76    72.21    10.76     8.67     8.40    39.32    14.74P    1.84R    0.03  
Maidenhead          9   17   +8       4.83    87.40     8.33    63.84    10.10     1.75     1.50    14.14     3.76P    8.13R    0.26  
Stockport           9   17   +5       5.94    91.28     6.97    66.53    11.15     3.25     3.35    22.35     7.23P    6.66R    0.25  
Dover_Athletic      9   16   +3       3.02    75.66     2.04    69.51    10.23     7.07     4.48    29.58    10.04P    2.78R    0.09  
Solihull_Moors      9   14   +6      -0.99    40.59     1.90    73.00    10.28    18.43     8.61    43.27    18.22P    1.26R    0.02  
Hartlepool          9   14   +0       1.56    64.75    -0.13    61.22    10.17    -5.68     0.82     9.13     2.54P   13.13R    0.52  
Yeovil              9   13   +2      -2.19    30.56    -2.24    76.55    10.60    21.29    16.10    56.71    29.56P    0.75R    0.02  
Barnet              8   13   +2       1.55    65.53     1.21    70.38    10.27     9.96     5.37    32.67    12.34P    2.24R    0.07  
Torquay             9   12   -2       2.19    70.65     2.15    52.23    10.76   -19.25     0.14     2.32     0.52P   42.53R    5.72  
Harrogate_Town      9   11   -1      -2.04    32.21    -2.00    65.06    10.34     3.84     1.96    17.35     5.56P    7.02R    0.25  
Dag_&_Red           8   11   -2       0.66    57.54    -0.99    62.86    10.38    -2.47     1.21    12.16     3.54P   10.35R    0.54  
Eastleigh           9   11   -2      -0.16    49.68    -0.15    60.42    10.11    -4.17     0.68     7.99     2.22P   14.63R    0.85  
Notts_County        9   10   +2      -5.52     9.99    -3.02    75.47    10.83    24.79    14.35    53.39    28.13P    1.02R    0.01  
Wrexham             9   10   -2      -3.13    23.15    -3.21    65.53    10.08     5.30     2.00    17.98     6.21P    5.80R    0.21  
Sutton_United       9   10   -2      -2.26    29.95    -1.91    57.20    10.10    -7.49     0.35     4.44     1.22P   22.94R    1.56  
AFC_Fylde           9   10   -5      -4.42    14.98    -8.15    65.86    10.31     2.68     2.26    18.80     6.58P    6.00R    0.22  
Boreham_Wood        9    8   -1      -4.39    15.03    -1.05    54.33    10.00    -7.67     0.14     2.61     0.64P   31.52R    2.48  
Aldershot           8    8   -3      -1.00    41.52    -0.18    51.64     9.86   -15.05     0.07     1.27     0.28P   42.81R    4.74  
Barrow              9    7   -5      -3.97    16.87    -2.96    54.52    10.00    -9.93     0.10     2.44     0.61P   31.52R    3.01  
Chesterfield        9    5   -5      -7.60     3.20    -5.39    56.96    10.25    -3.38     0.27     4.67     1.39P   23.33R    1.96  
Ebbsfleet_United    9    5   -9      -6.16     6.47    -7.08    56.02    10.23    -8.74     0.18     3.63     0.99P   26.85R    2.40  
Chorley             9    4  -16      -2.56    26.49    -5.89    32.72     9.55   -53.05     0.00     0.02     0.01P   95.08R   74.74