Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 2 September 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 September 2019, Arsenal 2 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         4   12   +9       2.64    86.06     1.90    86.36     8.40    56.86    32.01    84.10    94.88    98.17    99.74     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          4   10  +11       0.28    53.73     3.12    91.20     7.59    75.87    65.27    94.78    98.76    99.70    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         4    8   +3       1.95    76.35     2.14    55.50     9.43     3.15     0.04     0.52     4.06    10.94    32.09     1.43R    0.20  
Crystal_Palace    4    7   +1       1.48    71.74     0.97    50.05     9.14    -5.63     0.01     0.10     1.07     3.48    14.24     4.70R    0.79  
Arsenal           4    7   +0       1.12    67.76    -0.42    66.63     9.67    21.02     0.85     5.75    27.29    48.77    76.74     0.08R    0.00  
Everton           4    7   +0       0.55    58.10    -1.45    52.94     9.32    -2.13     0.01     0.25     2.32     6.61    22.71     2.48R    0.34  
West_Ham          4    7   -1       1.76    76.14    -0.21    48.92     9.39   -10.51     0.01     0.08     0.99     3.15    12.69     6.63R    1.13  
Man_Utd           4    5   +3      -2.00    23.88     0.73    63.50     9.35    21.31     0.41     3.21    17.46    35.25    67.47     0.15R    0.01  
Tottenham         4    5   +1      -1.58    25.95    -0.70    69.43     9.20    29.20     1.19     9.21    39.82    62.07    85.92     0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         4    5   +0       0.81    64.70     2.10    40.54     9.29   -19.97     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.42     2.55    27.18R    8.30  
Chelsea           4    5   -3      -2.10    22.06    -5.58    61.48     9.42    11.79     0.20     1.90    11.93    26.45    58.24     0.31R    0.04  
Burnley           4    4   -1       0.14    55.92     1.80    42.94     9.03   -14.34     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.63     3.81    17.94R    4.41  
Southampton       4    4   -2      -0.03    52.99     0.43    42.39     9.10   -16.78     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.59     3.46    19.86R    5.22  
Newcastle         4    4   -2      -0.89    38.90    -1.04    45.13     8.88   -10.78     0.00     0.02     0.26     1.05     5.55    11.46R    2.25  
Bournemouth       4    4   -3      -0.39    47.24    -0.53    42.91     9.36   -18.83     0.00     0.01     0.23     0.83     4.34    19.64R    4.98  
Brighton          4    4   -3       0.05    53.86     0.10    37.51     8.56   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.15     0.97    37.71R   11.94  
Wolverhampton     4    3   -1      -1.88    24.15    -0.15    45.68     9.10    -8.10     0.00     0.03     0.38     1.32     6.61    11.09R    2.32  
Aston_Villa       4    3   -2      -0.80    38.71     0.93    35.82     9.37   -27.90     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.15     1.05    46.61R   19.73  
Norwich           4    3   -4      -0.18    48.46     0.99    35.70     9.60   -32.68     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.19     1.06    48.16R   21.17  
Watford           4    1   -6      -3.90     7.01    -5.10    36.12     8.95   -27.68     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.79    44.55R   17.17  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Birmingham 2 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Swansea          6   16   +8       6.40    97.65     5.93    80.43    10.78    22.31    22.38    38.90    75.70    48.43P    0.12R    0.02  
Charlton         6   14   +6       5.60    94.81     5.72    67.22    11.42     3.56     3.57     8.08    30.44    12.75P    3.50R    0.64  
Leeds_United     6   13   +7       3.34    83.43     4.89    79.28    10.79    24.11    19.43    35.23    72.60    45.81P    0.13R    0.02  
West_Brom        6   12   +3       1.59    66.75    -0.39    79.68    10.91    22.71    20.91    36.88    73.34    47.79P    0.17R    0.02  
Bristol_City     6   11   +3       2.37    76.00     2.37    70.09    10.82     9.20     4.72    10.93    39.92    17.84P    1.59R    0.21  
Fulham           6   10   +5       0.14    51.30     2.54    72.33    11.77    16.30     8.89    17.83    48.65    26.28P    1.46R    0.26  
Preston          6   10   +4       1.05    62.41     2.97    68.25    10.98     8.86     3.76     8.90    34.11    14.82P    2.47R    0.42  
QPR              6   10   +0       2.63    78.61     1.42    56.81    10.64   -13.25     0.31     0.92     7.09     1.99P   17.27R    4.63  
Birmingham       6   10   -2       2.73    79.89    -0.56    59.70    10.49    -9.59     0.48     1.59    10.58     3.17P   10.82R    2.52  
Nott'm_Forest    6    9   +3       1.11    63.29     3.54    66.60    10.71     7.14     2.47     6.10    27.95    11.10P    3.11R    0.57  
Sheff_Wed        6    9   +2      -0.00    50.01     0.81    63.30    10.67     1.10     1.31     3.53    19.14     7.08P    5.79R    1.13  
Millwall         6    9   -2       2.26    76.16     0.20    57.69    10.19   -10.41     0.25     0.74     7.01     1.88P   14.18R    3.50  
Cardiff          6    8   -2      -1.15    37.66    -3.37    64.53    11.36     0.54     2.10     5.28    23.48     9.89P    5.73R    1.20  
Brentford        6    7   +1      -1.77    30.28     0.12    67.96    10.84    10.05     3.28     8.01    33.14    14.75P    2.46R    0.44  
Luton            6    7   +0      -0.63    44.05     1.01    58.77    11.78    -5.77     0.89     2.36    12.30     4.58P   15.15R    4.33  
Reading          6    7   +0      -0.05    50.97     1.89    53.82    10.35   -12.26     0.11     0.41     4.06     1.07P   24.42R    7.10  
Blackburn        6    7   -2      -0.22    48.67    -0.33    59.78    10.70    -5.28     0.59     1.63    11.54     3.67P   10.99R    2.68  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -1      -3.12    17.53    -2.32    65.38    10.50     6.06     1.82     4.70    24.06    10.13P    3.66R    0.68  
Derby            6    6   -3      -2.62    22.56    -3.59    66.47    10.74     5.35     2.17     5.96    27.89    11.76P    3.26R    0.57  
Hull             6    5   -3      -2.85    20.63    -2.28    57.35    10.95    -7.60     0.37     1.25     8.45     2.81P   16.43R    4.69  
Barnsley         6    5   -5      -2.47    24.49    -3.93    52.67    11.05   -15.75     0.11     0.42     4.00     1.18P   30.00R   10.59  
Wigan            6    4   -7      -2.88    19.14    -5.09    50.88    10.25   -18.82     0.04     0.16     2.10     0.54P   34.48R   12.03  
Huddersfield     6    1   -6      -5.85     2.56    -4.03    45.70    10.58   -20.37     0.01     0.06     0.87     0.25P   53.63R   26.47  
Stoke            6    1   -9      -6.18     1.82    -7.52    49.51    10.31   -18.20     0.03     0.12     1.57     0.44P   39.16R   15.29  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich               6   14  +10       3.66    86.42     6.85    81.95    10.91    34.84    32.10    50.94    83.81    60.73P    0.05R    0.00  
Lincoln_City          6   12   +8       3.16    81.81     7.11    65.75    10.92    10.25     2.92     7.19    31.02    12.46P    2.44R    0.04  
Blackpool             6   12   +5       2.93    80.03     3.75    67.88    10.08    10.72     3.18     8.21    36.80    14.51P    1.09R    0.01  
Coventry              6   12   +4       3.01    81.10     2.90    65.02    10.15     5.39     1.86     5.06    26.80     9.54P    2.17R    0.04  
Wycombe               6   12   +4       3.07    81.54     2.91    59.44    10.26    -4.11     0.53     1.68    13.00     3.67P    7.30R    0.16  
Sunderland            6   11   +1       0.76    59.01    -2.20    80.19    10.18    28.09    23.75    42.94    80.69    55.19P    0.05R    0.00  
Peterborough          6   10   +6       0.52    55.91     4.11    72.73    10.51    22.79     8.13    18.51    56.81    28.58P    0.44R    0.00  
Burton_Albion         6   10   +3       1.08    62.32     1.96    69.94    10.28    14.89     4.65    11.66    45.53    20.17P    0.69R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town        6   10   +2       1.02    62.39     0.98    66.39    10.32     8.48     2.35     6.34    32.27    12.20P    1.79R    0.04  
Rochdale              6    9   +3       1.61    68.44     4.35    56.32    10.27    -5.77     0.29     0.90     8.21     2.18P   12.43R    0.45  
Doncaster             4    8   +2       1.20    66.00    -0.01    70.50    10.93    13.68     6.28    14.07    47.33    22.56P    1.01R    0.02  
Shrewsbury            6    8   -2       0.12    52.60    -1.53    59.37     9.96    -2.88     0.41     1.42    11.94     3.59P    6.83R    0.18  
Rotherham             4    7   +0       0.54    58.31    -1.53    68.20    11.90     9.58     5.60    12.11    40.14    19.12P    2.41R    0.08  
Bristol_Rovers        6    7   -2      -1.07    38.06    -1.87    56.61    10.08    -5.79     0.28     0.86     7.98     2.33P   11.57R    0.37  
MK_Dons               5    6   -4       0.03    51.36    -2.54    50.03    10.96   -20.54     0.09     0.32     3.21     0.77P   32.04R    2.65  
Gillingham            5    5   +3      -1.99    26.61     2.87    58.33    10.89     1.87     0.61     1.74    12.60     4.06P   10.28R    0.40  
Portsmouth            5    5   +0      -2.81    17.75    -1.50    70.81    10.81    19.34     6.60    14.84    49.49    25.09P    0.87R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd            6    5   -4      -2.06    28.24    -1.95    56.54    10.45    -5.88     0.29     0.95     8.49     2.38P   12.97R    0.51  
Tranmere              5    4   +0      -1.34    34.41     2.74    44.85    10.68   -21.12     0.03     0.09     1.14     0.26P   49.62R    5.80  
Accrington_Stanley    5    4   -4      -1.85    28.16    -2.43    48.28    10.23   -19.45     0.03     0.14     1.78     0.42P   36.60R    2.98  
AFC_Wimbledon         6    2   -5      -4.21     7.96    -1.75    44.91     9.72   -18.57     0.00     0.03     0.63     0.11P   48.75R    4.99  
Southend              6    0  -13      -6.39     0.78    -9.93    41.60    10.07   -31.74     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.07P   62.95R   10.30  
Bolton                5  -11  -17      -3.51    10.46   -13.26    26.02    10.05   -44.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.65R   70.97  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Crawley_Town 1 0 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            6   14   +4       4.61    92.10     2.26    76.32    10.40    15.18    16.20    41.54    71.38    49.26P    0.11R    0.02  
Newport_County    6   12   +4       4.16    89.27     4.37    68.96    10.45     7.69     4.85    17.98    44.72    23.98P    0.96R    0.31  
Crewe             6   12   +0       4.52    90.67     1.01    67.32    10.55     0.96     3.61    14.21    38.23    19.12P    1.50R    0.55  
Grimsby           6   11   +6       3.33    84.62     6.66    63.86    10.39     3.76     1.87     8.42    27.52    12.28P    2.74R    0.97  
Swindon           6   11   +4       1.96    72.07     2.78    71.55    10.76    12.64     8.62    26.17    55.01    33.36P    0.65R    0.21  
Plymouth          6   10   +4      -0.15    47.83     1.03    78.47    11.39    24.54    25.37    51.05    76.88    58.88P    0.15R    0.05  
Macclesfield      6   10   +3       3.10    83.01     4.87    53.50     9.94   -13.00     0.12     0.95     5.35     1.67P   16.99R    7.71  
Crawley_Town      6   10   +2       1.98    72.41     2.38    58.24    10.29    -7.50     0.54     3.07    12.63     4.82P    8.12R    3.40  
Forest_Green      6   10   +0       1.70    69.62    -0.20    67.75    10.63     4.74     4.22    15.37    40.45    21.39P    1.46R    0.48  
Port_Vale         6    9   -1       1.49    68.10    -0.16    56.60    10.04   -10.33     0.30     1.78     9.21     3.22P   10.39R    4.54  
Cheltenham        6    8   +3      -0.34    47.35     2.80    59.87    10.43    -1.13     0.93     4.58    16.75     7.05P    6.00R    2.42  
Bradford          6    8   +2      -1.83    29.97    -0.34    73.46    11.17    17.75    12.55    33.02    61.79    41.95P    0.47R    0.16  
Cambridge_Utd     6    8   +0       1.20    66.10     1.82    55.86     9.99    -8.98     0.23     1.54     8.05     2.79P   11.85R    5.33  
Colchester        6    8   +0      -0.81    41.34    -0.85    67.72    10.49     7.55     4.13    15.42    40.51    21.80P    1.27R    0.46  
Leyton_Orient     6    8   -2       1.01    63.48    -0.26    49.71    10.41   -21.09     0.07     0.51     3.18     0.92P   30.26R   16.35  
Salford_City      6    7   +0       0.54    58.30     2.87    47.12    10.63   -22.53     0.05     0.38     2.28     0.71P   40.25R   24.82  
Northampton       6    7   +0      -1.28    35.58    -0.12    64.75    10.67     4.51     2.34    10.12    30.92    15.15P    2.63R    1.07  
Carlisle          6    7   -3      -1.38    34.88    -3.23    62.13    10.62    -2.51     1.46     6.62    22.41    10.12P    4.52R    1.69  
Mansfield         6    6   +0      -3.94    11.64    -2.57    70.65    10.62    14.42     7.31    23.47    52.61    32.62P    0.67R    0.22  
Morecambe         6    5   -4      -1.56    33.56    -1.60    50.07    10.18   -18.14     0.08     0.47     3.02     0.96P   27.84R   15.25  
Walsall           6    5   -5      -3.41    15.95    -5.30    64.96    11.04     2.95     2.77    11.04    31.76    16.82P    3.07R    1.23  
Oldham            6    4   -5      -3.98    11.42    -4.75    61.44    10.66    -0.86     1.18     5.96    20.76     9.69P    5.25R    2.20  
Stevenage         6    3   -4      -5.14     5.10    -4.00    55.64    10.32    -6.38     0.24     1.70     8.56     3.42P   12.33R    5.47  
Scunthorpe        6    1   -8      -8.23     0.57    -9.48    58.36    11.55    -4.24     0.97     4.62    16.03     8.01P   10.51R    5.11  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 August 2019, Bromley 2 2 AFC_Fylde; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking              8   21  +10       9.70    99.13     9.55    76.17    11.64    14.60    16.44    52.97    23.91P    1.20R    0.03  
Halifax             8   19  +10       7.43    96.98     9.06    74.69    10.17    15.60    10.55    48.20    18.67P    0.68R    0.01  
Bromley             8   18   +6       5.00    88.85     2.81    72.62    10.77     9.35     8.67    40.72    15.49P    1.78R    0.04  
Maidenhead          8   16   +8       5.09    89.73     8.15    63.45    10.32     0.67     1.32    13.48     3.52P    9.41R    0.48  
Dover_Athletic      8   15   +3       3.50    80.64     2.20    70.24    10.52     7.54     5.45    31.85    11.39P    2.74R    0.09  
Stockport           8   14   +4       4.40    86.24     6.13    62.92    11.58    -0.91     2.12    15.22     4.76P   12.87R    1.04  
Solihull_Moors      8   13   +6      -0.75    42.27     1.62    73.03    10.76    17.99     9.37    43.28    18.79P    1.55R    0.04  
Barnet              8   13   +2       1.51    64.92     1.15    70.47    10.32    10.10     5.24    32.65    12.06P    2.23R    0.06  
Hartlepool          8   11   -1       0.06    51.53    -0.93    59.34    10.47    -7.39     0.61     7.18     1.97P   18.48R    1.29  
Torquay             8   11   -2       2.26    72.21     1.72    52.35    11.29   -20.13     0.20     2.76     0.65P   42.84R    7.39  
Dag_&_Red           8   11   -2       0.60    57.16    -1.08    63.00    10.48    -2.35     1.26    12.77     3.64P   10.58R    0.69  
Yeovil              8   10   +1      -3.39    20.08    -2.59    74.49    11.02    19.76    12.29    48.98    24.28P    1.37R    0.03  
Sutton_United       8   10   -1      -1.40    36.72    -1.65    58.61    10.43    -6.64     0.43     6.44     1.66P   19.82R    1.54  
AFC_Fylde           8   10   -4      -2.96    22.96    -7.07    68.42    10.60     5.44     3.86    26.49     9.95P    4.20R    0.17  
Notts_County        8    9   +2      -5.20     9.80    -3.18    76.42    11.06    26.08    16.56    56.78    30.63P    0.96R    0.03  
Wrexham             8    9   -2      -2.57    26.13    -2.96    66.23    10.36     5.80     2.40    19.95     7.08P    5.61R    0.28  
Boreham_Wood        8    8   +1      -3.25    21.14     0.59    56.98    10.34    -3.89     0.33     4.88     1.31P   23.46R    1.89  
Harrogate_Town      8    8   -3      -2.78    25.27    -2.52    63.44    10.61     1.94     1.45    13.98     4.39P    9.98R    0.61  
Aldershot           8    8   -3      -1.09    40.41    -0.26    52.07     9.90   -14.59     0.05     1.40     0.30P   41.07R    5.31  
Eastleigh           8    8   -4      -1.55    36.09    -1.70    57.48    10.47    -8.30     0.41     5.20     1.36P   23.34R    2.15  
Barrow              8    7   -4      -2.78    24.51    -2.20    56.13    10.32    -8.78     0.29     3.83     0.95P   27.08R    2.73  
Chesterfield        8    5   -4      -6.39     5.11    -4.64    58.71    10.51    -1.76     0.45     6.69     2.03P   19.23R    1.73  
Ebbsfleet_United    8    4   -9      -5.82     6.23    -7.08    56.40    10.53    -8.84     0.29     4.27     1.21P   26.30R    2.85  
Chorley             8    4  -14      -2.00    31.25    -5.13    34.26     9.92   -51.29     0.00     0.03     0.00P   93.22R   69.51