Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 30 August 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 August 2019, Bournemouth 1 3 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         3    9   +6       1.98    80.90     0.56    85.00     8.69    53.67    32.02    78.76    92.01    96.97    99.57     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          3    7   +7       0.05    50.65     1.91    89.76     7.94    71.04    63.20    91.87    97.61    99.27    99.91     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           3    6   +0       1.48    71.89    -0.49    66.70     9.88    20.31     1.22     7.31    26.65    47.19    76.40     0.11R    0.02  
Leicester         3    5   +1       0.82    64.41     0.93    53.30     9.65     0.44     0.03     0.38     2.67     7.13    24.65     2.83R    0.45  
Man_Utd           3    4   +3      -1.17    32.58     1.44    65.04     9.65    23.20     0.94     5.63    21.39    40.51    72.38     0.12R    0.01  
Burnley           3    4   +2       0.59    63.60     3.15    43.96     9.22   -11.68     0.00     0.02     0.22     0.85     4.86    16.36R    4.14  
Tottenham         3    4   +1      -1.16    30.54    -0.64    69.78     9.45    28.96     2.05    11.91    39.45    61.05    85.97     0.02R    0.00  
Brighton          3    4   +1       0.18    55.66     1.37    38.72     8.75   -20.22     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.17     1.33    33.38R   10.31  
Sheff_Utd         3    4   +0       0.56    62.53     1.00    39.42     9.59   -21.81     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.42     2.39    32.91R   11.41  
Crystal_Palace    3    4   +0       0.28    57.96     0.61    48.64     9.41    -6.21     0.01     0.07     0.73     2.59    11.82     7.18R    1.44  
Bournemouth       3    4   -1       0.48    62.32     0.54    44.72     9.65   -15.44     0.00     0.04     0.45     1.32     6.32    15.71R    3.92  
Everton           3    4   -1      -0.84    38.02    -2.10    50.98     9.46    -3.29     0.02     0.18     1.45     4.44    17.41     4.31R    0.71  
Chelsea           3    4   -3      -1.03    35.14    -4.49    63.15     9.62    13.79     0.50     3.65    15.36    31.65    64.64     0.24R    0.02  
West_Ham          3    4   -3       0.64    64.52    -1.36    46.82     9.63   -13.16     0.01     0.06     0.65     2.03     9.36    11.01R    2.54  
Wolverhampton     3    3   +0      -0.73    37.86     0.51    47.00     9.33    -6.66     0.00     0.05     0.52     1.86     8.90     9.61R    2.02  
Aston_Villa       3    3   -1       0.20    53.92     1.34    36.82     9.59   -27.53     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.20     1.33    44.22R   18.07  
Norwich           3    3   -2       0.75    64.20     2.10    37.70     9.98   -29.50     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.40     1.93    41.03R   16.96  
Southampton       3    3   -2      -0.09    48.72    -0.24    41.72     9.26   -18.19     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.55     3.16    23.36R    6.70  
Newcastle         3    3   -2      -0.26    45.57    -0.72    46.05     9.13    -9.64     0.00     0.02     0.33     1.31     6.81    10.93R    2.34  
Watford           3    0   -6      -3.75     3.62    -5.43    35.98     9.16   -28.08     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.86    46.68R   18.96  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 30 August 2019, Cardiff 1 1 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     5   13   +8       4.76    94.55     5.95    82.09    11.04    27.62    28.01    45.23    79.60    55.00P    0.08R    0.01  
Swansea          5   13   +7       4.70    94.39     4.79    77.37    11.06    19.22    15.07    28.60    65.44    38.21P    0.24R    0.03  
Charlton         5   11   +4       4.13    90.80     3.94    63.33    11.55    -1.94     1.69     4.41    20.41     7.58P    7.41R    1.81  
Fulham           6   10   +5       0.15    51.15     2.54    72.35    11.60    16.33     8.27    17.15    48.53    25.73P    1.43R    0.22  
Bristol_City     5   10   +3       2.88    82.53     2.58    70.68    11.02     9.60     5.18    12.15    41.75    19.13P    1.52R    0.22  
Preston          5    9   +4       1.26    64.88     2.71    68.39    11.29     8.56     3.90     9.27    34.74    15.30P    2.70R    0.47  
Sheff_Wed        5    9   +3       1.68    70.11     2.32    66.25    10.91     4.50     2.44     6.03    27.00    10.80P    3.57R    0.71  
West_Brom        5    9   +2       0.62    56.60    -0.36    79.00    11.15    23.30    19.39    34.58    70.96    45.45P    0.23R    0.03  
Nott'm_Forest    5    8   +3       1.63    71.31     3.78    67.36    11.08     7.71     2.86     7.35    30.63    12.79P    2.99R    0.64  
Cardiff          6    8   -2      -1.10    38.18    -3.30    64.49    11.36     0.48     2.02     5.07    22.96     9.66P    5.95R    1.24  
Millwall         5    8   -2       2.73    83.27     0.34    58.51    10.53    -9.84     0.32     1.13     8.57     2.42P   13.23R    3.37  
Reading          5    7   +2       1.21    66.97     3.73    56.86    10.82    -7.78     0.27     1.04     7.48     2.29P   17.18R    4.68  
QPR              5    7   -1       0.72    60.65    -0.03    53.65    10.70   -16.78     0.13     0.44     4.28     1.07P   26.44R    8.37  
Blackburn        5    7   -1       0.56    58.60    -0.34    60.33    10.93    -5.58     0.72     2.05    12.67     4.18P   10.65R    2.62  
Birmingham       5    7   -3       1.24    67.60    -1.32    57.88    10.70   -10.90     0.37     1.23     8.28     2.56P   15.19R    3.89  
Derby            5    6   +0      -1.71    29.40    -1.28    69.74    11.01    11.31     4.31    10.46    38.80    18.33P    1.89R    0.33  
Middlesbrough    5    5   -1      -2.96    16.85    -2.58    65.56    10.53     5.84     1.75     4.75    24.67    10.28P    3.53R    0.68  
Luton            5    4   -1      -1.86    29.07     0.64    57.74    12.05    -5.91     0.74     2.02    11.12     4.06P   17.65R    5.88  
Brentford        5    4   -2      -2.98    16.61    -2.23    64.25    11.14     3.93     1.71     4.56    22.22     9.12P    5.67R    1.16  
Hull             5    4   -3      -2.59    20.64    -2.44    57.39    11.20    -8.29     0.46     1.31     8.96     2.89P   16.81R    5.10  
Barnsley         5    4   -5      -2.28    24.25    -4.15    52.57    11.39   -16.94     0.19     0.53     4.28     1.31P   31.02R   11.74  
Wigan            5    3   -7      -2.35    21.73    -4.78    51.56    10.61   -18.71     0.08     0.29     2.63     0.70P   32.91R   11.76  
Huddersfield     5    1   -5      -4.84     4.17    -3.61    47.38    11.04   -18.94     0.04     0.15     1.51     0.43P   47.90R   22.48  
Stoke            5    1   -8      -5.09     3.56    -6.90    51.13    10.61   -16.79     0.07     0.21     2.52     0.71P   33.80R   12.53  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 August 2019, Bolton 0 5 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich               5   11   +7       2.83    82.16     5.05    78.95    11.31    29.27    20.95    38.80    75.82    49.79P    0.14R    0.00  
Blackpool             5   11   +5       3.22    85.16     3.64    68.07    10.33    10.50     3.39     8.67    38.18    15.39P    0.97R    0.01  
Wycombe               5   11   +4       3.66    88.68     3.28    60.16    10.50    -3.49     0.64     2.06    15.08     4.38P    6.47R    0.26  
Sunderland            5   11   +4       1.74    71.02     0.19    83.87    10.56    34.63    36.83    56.76    88.25    67.30P    0.02R    0.00  
Coventry              5   11   +4       3.44    87.48     2.97    65.09    10.44     5.16     1.83     5.18    27.91     9.75P    2.26R    0.06  
Fleetwood_Town        5   10   +4       2.04    74.85     2.39    69.26    10.63    12.71     4.43    10.81    42.94    18.31P    0.93R    0.03  
Lincoln_City          5    9   +6       1.96    72.57     5.78    62.06    11.43     5.12     1.55     4.14    22.06     7.87P    5.52R    0.32  
Shrewsbury            5    9   +2       1.63    69.51     1.19    63.40    10.25     3.76     1.14     3.67    22.54     7.85P    2.90R    0.08  
Doncaster             4    8   +2       1.23    66.40     0.02    70.63    11.17    13.82     6.25    14.30    48.37    22.86P    1.02R    0.04  
Peterborough          5    7   +3      -0.76    41.31     1.65    68.93    10.81    15.92     4.29    10.88    42.73    18.98P    1.18R    0.05  
Burton_Albion         5    7   +1      -0.08    49.81     0.64    67.67    10.60    11.75     3.09     8.40    37.45    15.80P    1.45R    0.04  
Bristol_Rovers        5    7   +0      -0.20    48.16    -0.60    58.59    10.35    -2.69     0.41     1.46    11.93     3.58P    7.88R    0.38  
Rochdale              5    6   +0       0.32    55.19     1.86    52.37    10.46   -12.12     0.10     0.39     4.34     1.09P   21.92R    1.94  
Rotherham             3    6   +0       1.42    69.64    -0.69    70.08    12.49    11.97     7.56    15.91    46.46    23.72P    2.01R    0.11  
Portsmouth            4    4   +0      -2.43    19.20    -1.49    71.54    11.10    19.74     6.84    16.22    52.57    27.02P    0.80R    0.03  
Oxford_Utd            5    4   -4      -1.61    31.57    -1.95    56.71    10.73    -5.78     0.33     1.09     9.46     2.81P   12.06R    0.83  
MK_Dons               4    4   -4      -0.70    42.96    -2.72    48.92    11.40   -20.71     0.08     0.30     3.20     0.80P   34.94R    5.05  
Tranmere              4    3   +0      -1.42    29.91     1.86    43.37    11.08   -24.37     0.03     0.07     1.11     0.21P   53.83R   10.94  
Gillingham            4    2   -2      -2.62    17.49    -0.62    53.77    10.98    -7.63     0.20     0.69     6.31     1.79P   18.92R    1.73  
AFC_Wimbledon         5    1   -5      -3.76     8.28    -1.62    45.44    10.13   -18.39     0.01     0.05     0.90     0.17P   44.91R    6.52  
Accrington_Stanley    4    1   -5      -3.31    10.52    -3.22    46.38    10.55   -20.46     0.02     0.09     1.45     0.34P   41.98R    6.35  
Southend              5    0  -10      -5.32     1.60    -7.51    44.74    10.51   -25.26     0.02     0.04     0.92     0.16P   48.56R    8.58  
Bolton                4  -11  -12      -3.20    11.38   -10.11    30.04    10.62   -33.46     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   89.33R   56.66  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 August 2019, Bradford 0 1 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            5   11   +3       3.16    85.39     1.53    74.11    10.66    13.41    10.25    32.54    63.96    40.71P    0.23R    0.07  
Plymouth          5   10   +6       1.09    63.19     2.82    82.07    11.63    29.91    34.08    62.33    84.79    69.35P    0.07R    0.02  
Forest_Green      5   10   +2       3.10    84.66     1.85    70.80    10.88     9.08     6.48    22.75    51.98    29.97P    0.68R    0.22  
Macclesfield      5    9   +3       3.17    85.45     4.48    52.93    10.11   -14.23     0.11     0.89     5.12     1.59P   18.58R    9.04  
Newport_County    5    9   +2       2.64    80.91     2.55    65.70    10.60     3.44     2.22    10.72    33.76    15.78P    2.03R    0.79  
Crewe             5    9   -1       2.92    82.61     0.07    64.93    10.83    -1.17     2.02     9.73    30.99    14.22P    2.81R    1.05  
Grimsby           5    8   +4       1.62    71.66     4.54    60.09    10.41    -1.23     0.69     4.09    17.21     6.76P    5.83R    2.35  
Cheltenham        5    8   +4       0.85    61.62     3.57    61.79    10.65     0.59     1.18     6.13    22.24     9.48P    4.45R    1.70  
Bradford          5    8   +3      -0.45    44.48     0.70    75.85    11.50    20.24    15.69    40.03    69.45    48.93P    0.30R    0.12  
Swindon           5    8   +2       0.91    62.50     1.64    69.46    10.88    10.07     5.27    19.64    47.72    26.46P    0.95R    0.34  
Cambridge_Utd     5    8   +1       2.33    79.30     2.58    57.71    10.35    -7.32     0.40     2.53    11.97     4.30P    8.91R    3.70  
Crawley_Town      5    7   +1       0.48    57.40     1.57    56.29    10.64    -9.18     0.37     2.17    10.47     3.74P   11.65R    5.41  
Leyton_Orient     5    7   -2       1.26    67.40    -0.41    49.98    10.70   -21.30     0.10     0.68     3.72     1.14P   29.31R   16.71  
Mansfield         5    6   +1      -2.79    17.33    -1.84    72.32    10.75    15.98     8.25    27.94    58.69    37.34P    0.47R    0.15  
Salford_City      5    6   +0       0.97    64.13     2.98    47.96    10.92   -21.78     0.08     0.52     2.88     0.94P   36.74R   22.49  
Port_Vale         5    6   -2       0.01    51.35    -0.92    54.46    10.36   -12.20     0.22     1.33     7.12     2.42P   15.43R    7.17  
Colchester        5    5   -1      -2.45    21.45    -1.82    64.74    10.82     4.62     2.04     9.88    31.44    15.50P    2.60R    0.96  
Morecambe         5    5   -2      -0.89    40.31    -0.67    51.73    10.40   -15.63     0.12     0.76     4.60     1.47P   22.59R   11.70  
Walsall           5    5   -3      -2.03    26.26    -3.31    68.77    11.31     8.41     5.06    18.46    44.99    25.87P    1.45R    0.55  
Northampton       5    4   -2      -2.81    18.12    -2.00    60.97    10.81    -0.66     1.05     5.48    20.27     8.85P    5.53R    2.26  
Carlisle          5    4   -4      -3.13    15.49    -4.40    59.21    10.82    -5.60     0.75     3.90    15.85     6.55P    7.72R    3.41  
Oldham            5    4   -4      -2.58    20.49    -3.68    63.41    10.95     1.02     1.69     8.08    26.95    12.76P    3.86R    1.56  
Stevenage         5    2   -4      -4.37     6.39    -3.46    56.45    10.47    -5.68     0.25     1.99    10.26     3.89P   10.92R    4.99  
Scunthorpe        5    1   -7      -6.77     1.14    -8.40    61.41    11.79    -0.80     1.62     7.42    23.58    11.98P    6.89R    3.24  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 August 2019, AFC_Fylde 0 0 Harrogate_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking              7   18   +9       8.44    98.58     9.11    73.42    11.91    12.08    11.77    44.95    18.67P    2.34R    0.12  
Bromley             7   17   +6       5.36    92.59     2.80    72.52    11.04     8.58     8.89    41.06    15.34P    1.92R    0.07  
Halifax             7   16   +9       5.91    94.61     8.19    71.91    10.37    12.92     6.91    38.85    13.82P    1.61R    0.05  
Solihull_Moors      7   13   +7       0.65    56.09     2.72    75.26    10.80    20.28    13.08    52.44    23.79P    0.86R    0.02  
Maidenhead          7   13   +5       3.71    83.90     5.53    59.85    10.45    -5.33     0.69     8.15     1.95P   16.49R    1.29  
Dover_Athletic      7   12   +1       2.10    71.13     0.53    67.32    10.75     3.51     3.40    23.94     7.77P    5.18R    0.35  
Stockport           7   11   +3       2.79    77.94     5.18    59.61    11.56    -4.25     1.10    10.14     2.94P   19.47R    2.37  
Torquay             7   11   -1       3.25    81.30     2.13    53.83    11.69   -18.94     0.45     4.44     1.16P   37.49R    7.08  
Sutton_United       7   10   +2      -0.38    46.17     0.81    62.27    10.65    -0.02     1.31    12.50     3.75P   11.63R    0.79  
Barnet              7   10   +1       0.22    52.89     0.63    68.35    10.47     8.48     3.68    26.98     9.46P    3.69R    0.22  
Dag_&_Red           7   10   -2       0.92    60.29    -1.19    62.83    10.68    -3.27     1.44    13.23     3.93P   11.00R    0.97  
Notts_County        7    9   +4      -3.90    14.89    -1.31    79.28    11.53    30.34    25.32    66.47    40.12P    0.72R    0.05  
Wrexham             7    9   -1      -1.13    38.40    -1.83    68.70    10.49     8.34     3.84    28.20    10.14P    3.58R    0.17  
AFC_Fylde           7    9   -4      -2.46    25.19    -6.86    68.59    10.76     5.13     4.20    28.16    10.83P    4.18R    0.24  
Harrogate_Town      7    8   -1      -1.66    34.02    -0.96    66.55    10.96     6.59     2.93    22.73     7.51P    6.27R    0.50  
Hartlepool          7    8   -2      -1.24    38.30    -1.46    57.44    10.72    -8.75     0.39     5.88     1.51P   23.54R    2.61  
Eastleigh           7    8   -3      -0.42    47.27    -1.08    59.16    10.58    -6.72     0.61     7.46     1.93P   18.57R    2.07  
Yeovil              7    7   -1      -4.79    10.10    -4.24    71.19    11.33    15.08     7.94    38.19    17.76P    2.86R    0.22  
Barrow              7    7   -3      -1.70    33.19    -1.72    57.93    10.59    -6.99     0.49     6.07     1.75P   21.74R    2.49  
Boreham_Wood        7    5   -1      -4.15    13.29    -0.33    55.37    10.53    -5.68     0.26     3.97     1.02P   28.36R    4.03  
Aldershot           7    5   -4      -2.68    23.62    -1.25    49.10     9.95   -17.42     0.02     0.80     0.15P   52.26R   10.77  
Chesterfield        7    4   -4      -6.06     4.70    -4.73    59.02    10.80    -1.81     0.67     7.78     2.46P   18.67R    2.18  
Ebbsfleet_United    7    4   -8      -4.46    10.79    -6.13    58.89    10.82    -6.09     0.62     7.48     2.20P   19.68R    2.40  
Chorley             7    4  -12      -1.40    37.18    -4.53    37.07    10.59   -46.08     0.01     0.12     0.02P   87.88R   58.95