Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 29 August 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 August 2019, Bournemouth 1 3 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         3    9   +6       1.99    80.94     0.56    84.88     8.75    53.54    31.87    78.58    92.20    96.87    99.52     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          3    7   +7       0.05    50.55     1.90    89.70     8.01    70.91    63.13    91.54    97.53    99.27    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           3    6   +0       1.49    72.24    -0.46    66.44     9.93    19.87     1.18     7.18    26.32    45.81    75.52     0.09R    0.01  
Leicester         3    5   +1       0.81    64.11     0.90    53.39     9.57     0.53     0.04     0.36     2.44     7.33    24.74     2.83R    0.42  
Man_Utd           3    4   +3      -1.17    32.51     1.42    65.32     9.57    23.70     0.99     5.87    22.03    41.57    73.39     0.11R    0.01  
Burnley           3    4   +2       0.60    63.90     3.15    43.98     9.28   -11.72     0.00     0.04     0.23     0.93     5.05    16.41R    4.05  
Tottenham         3    4   +1      -1.13    31.24    -0.62    69.72     9.50    28.88     2.18    12.21    39.26    61.26    85.62     0.04R    0.00  
Brighton          3    4   +1       0.19    55.94     1.38    38.59     8.75   -20.52     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.16     1.27    34.12R   10.48  
Sheff_Utd         3    4   +0       0.56    62.47     1.00    39.51     9.59   -21.71     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.39     2.37    32.68R   11.41  
Crystal_Palace    3    4   +0       0.31    58.31     0.63    48.53     9.46    -6.39     0.01     0.13     0.81     2.65    11.68     7.44R    1.43  
Bournemouth       3    4   -1       0.49    62.44     0.55    44.67     9.64   -15.52     0.00     0.04     0.37     1.31     6.40    16.12R    3.91  
Everton           3    4   -1      -0.82    38.44    -2.07    50.88     9.50    -3.50     0.02     0.21     1.44     4.47    17.02     4.74R    0.86  
Chelsea           3    4   -3      -1.04    34.87    -4.49    63.29     9.52    14.06     0.56     3.65    15.51    31.81    65.25     0.19R    0.02  
West_Ham          3    4   -3       0.64    64.56    -1.33    46.74     9.66   -13.34     0.01     0.07     0.57     2.03     9.10    11.18R    2.48  
Wolverhampton     3    3   +0      -0.73    37.99     0.52    47.06     9.29    -6.49     0.00     0.05     0.50     1.77     8.80     9.40R    1.98  
Aston_Villa       3    3   -1       0.17    53.24     1.30    36.86     9.67   -27.36     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.24     1.47    43.49R   18.24  
Norwich           3    3   -2       0.75    64.21     2.08    37.86    10.08   -29.10     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.34     2.11    40.66R   16.87  
Southampton       3    3   -2      -0.09    48.51    -0.22    41.82     9.27   -18.08     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.55     3.34    22.99R    6.59  
Newcastle         3    3   -2      -0.29    45.17    -0.75    46.06     9.04    -9.68     0.00     0.03     0.30     1.13     6.64    10.77R    2.16  
Watford           3    0   -6      -3.77     3.45    -5.46    35.95     9.19   -28.08     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.12     0.79    46.76R   19.08  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 August 2019, Swansea 3 0 Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     5   13   +8       4.76    94.41     5.96    82.16    11.11    27.73    27.71    45.26    79.50    54.84P    0.10R    0.01  
Swansea          5   13   +7       4.66    94.27     4.72    77.77    11.06    19.86    15.77    29.66    66.37    38.87P    0.25R    0.02  
Charlton         5   11   +4       4.16    91.17     4.01    63.12    11.49    -2.26     1.60     4.11    19.55     7.24P    7.50R    1.73  
Bristol_City     5   10   +3       2.89    82.48     2.59    70.70    11.06     9.57     5.23    11.85    41.39    18.92P    1.41R    0.24  
Fulham           5    9   +5       0.41    53.76     2.40    72.77    12.09    16.47     9.28    18.58    49.90    27.25P    1.64R    0.30  
Preston          5    9   +4       1.30    65.59     2.77    68.34    11.21     8.42     3.50     8.70    34.14    14.62P    2.72R    0.54  
Sheff_Wed        5    9   +3       1.65    69.64     2.25    66.42    10.92     4.74     2.38     6.08    27.50    10.84P    3.42R    0.68  
West_Brom        5    9   +2       0.61    56.47    -0.36    78.87    11.22    23.17    18.56    33.53    70.03    44.46P    0.26R    0.03  
Nott'm_Forest    5    8   +3       1.61    71.44     3.75    67.52    11.10     8.00     2.84     7.28    31.30    12.91P    2.95R    0.54  
Millwall         5    8   -2       2.73    83.30     0.34    58.65    10.51    -9.77     0.35     1.15     8.78     2.51P   13.03R    3.26  
Reading          5    7   +2       1.25    67.22     3.80    56.64    10.69    -8.19     0.27     0.92     6.95     2.01P   17.46R    4.89  
QPR              5    7   -1       0.75    60.87     0.03    53.57    10.81   -16.94     0.14     0.49     4.33     1.14P   26.87R    8.78  
Blackburn        5    7   -1       0.51    57.62    -0.39    60.47    10.90    -5.33     0.69     1.99    12.74     4.29P   10.20R    2.55  
Cardiff          5    7   -2      -0.63    42.49    -3.16    65.06    11.69     0.70     2.41     6.05    24.81    10.78P    5.73R    1.21  
Birmingham       5    7   -3       1.25    67.43    -1.32    58.02    10.68   -10.77     0.36     1.18     8.48     2.57P   14.69R    3.69  
Derby            5    6   +0      -1.68    29.47    -1.22    69.69    11.04    11.18     4.27    10.37    38.43    18.31P    1.94R    0.33  
Middlesbrough    5    5   -1      -2.94    17.16    -2.54    65.40    10.52     5.62     1.63     4.37    23.72     9.76P    3.76R    0.71  
Luton            5    4   -1      -1.86    29.33     0.63    57.57    12.00    -6.20     0.68     1.89    10.79     3.87P   18.18R    5.91  
Brentford        5    4   -2      -2.97    16.62    -2.20    64.22    11.10     3.84     1.58     4.34    21.90     8.90P    5.61R    1.23  
Hull             5    4   -3      -2.60    20.79    -2.46    57.36    11.21    -8.32     0.44     1.23     8.79     2.84P   17.22R    5.10  
Barnsley         5    4   -5      -2.25    24.50    -4.10    52.21    11.37   -17.48     0.17     0.44     4.15     1.29P   31.97R   12.32  
Wigan            5    3   -7      -2.38    21.23    -4.84    51.63    10.48   -18.65     0.06     0.20     2.47     0.64P   32.46R   11.63  
Huddersfield     5    1   -5      -4.89     4.26    -3.67    47.49    10.99   -18.88     0.04     0.14     1.49     0.41P   47.37R   22.09  
Stoke            5    1   -8      -5.14     3.46    -6.99    51.32    10.54   -16.52     0.05     0.19     2.49     0.73P   33.27R   12.19  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 August 2019, Bolton 0 5 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich               5   11   +7       2.85    82.12     5.06    78.96    11.34    29.27    21.76    38.94    76.19    50.00P    0.17R    0.00  
Blackpool             5   11   +5       3.27    85.54     3.73    67.79    10.41    10.03     3.26     8.26    37.40    14.74P    1.19R    0.04  
Wycombe               5   11   +4       3.67    88.64     3.30    60.15    10.60    -3.48     0.72     2.16    15.30     4.35P    6.70R    0.27  
Sunderland            5   11   +4       1.76    71.36     0.23    83.49    10.44    33.98    35.03    55.70    87.87    66.37P    0.02R    0.00  
Coventry              5   11   +4       3.46    87.33     3.00    64.98    10.37     5.06     1.81     5.14    27.36     9.87P    2.26R    0.06  
Fleetwood_Town        5   10   +4       2.04    74.86     2.40    69.10    10.62    12.45     4.32    10.74    42.46    18.15P    1.00R    0.02  
Lincoln_City          5    9   +6       1.91    72.41     5.72    62.40    11.27     5.71     1.59     4.30    22.71     8.04P    4.98R    0.25  
Shrewsbury            5    9   +2       1.60    69.15     1.16    63.37    10.34     3.65     1.32     3.81    22.70     7.90P    3.06R    0.13  
Doncaster             4    8   +2       1.25    66.50     0.05    70.47    11.22    13.58     6.28    14.34    47.58    22.91P    1.09R    0.04  
Peterborough          5    7   +3      -0.77    41.00     1.61    69.08    10.94    16.26     4.70    11.50    43.51    19.61P    1.25R    0.04  
Burton_Albion         5    7   +1      -0.08    49.93     0.64    67.70    10.66    11.78     3.23     8.53    37.61    15.94P    1.50R    0.06  
Bristol_Rovers        5    7   +0      -0.22    47.75    -0.62    58.75    10.44    -2.44     0.47     1.63    12.19     3.72P    8.08R    0.43  
Rochdale              5    6   +0       0.32    55.23     1.88    52.25    10.45   -12.43     0.11     0.33     4.17     1.07P   22.02R    1.98  
Rotherham             3    6   +0       1.42    69.67    -0.70    70.32    12.31    12.40     7.72    16.20    47.62    24.27P    1.95R    0.10  
Portsmouth            4    4   +0      -2.38    19.63    -1.41    71.08    11.21    18.97     6.93    15.89    50.82    26.23P    0.82R    0.02  
Oxford_Utd            5    4   -4      -1.63    31.46    -1.97    56.96    10.85    -5.42     0.36     1.17    10.21     3.17P   12.05R    0.77  
MK_Dons               4    4   -4      -0.71    42.72    -2.75    49.08    11.28   -20.42     0.10     0.37     3.26     0.85P   34.05R    4.77  
Tranmere              4    3   +0      -1.44    29.59     1.82    43.27    10.94   -24.42     0.02     0.07     0.94     0.21P   54.22R   10.85  
Gillingham            4    2   -2      -2.66    16.77    -0.69    54.05    11.04    -7.21     0.24     0.77     6.84     1.93P   18.42R    1.78  
AFC_Wimbledon         5    1   -5      -3.80     8.03    -1.69    45.71    10.12   -17.95     0.01     0.05     0.95     0.20P   43.80R    6.35  
Accrington_Stanley    4    1   -5      -3.26    10.88    -3.15    46.16    10.61   -20.78     0.01     0.08     1.36     0.29P   43.37R    6.76  
Southend              5    0  -10      -5.34     1.57    -7.54    44.76    10.44   -25.20     0.00     0.04     0.92     0.18P   48.73R    8.45  
Bolton                4  -11  -12      -3.19    11.39   -10.09    30.07    10.66   -33.40     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    89.26R   56.85  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 August 2019, Bradford 0 1 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            5   11   +3       3.12    84.94     1.49    74.36    10.64    13.77    10.80    33.31    64.98    41.55P    0.23R    0.05  
Plymouth          5   10   +6       1.06    63.01     2.80    82.08    11.48    29.86    34.07    62.32    84.94    69.34P    0.06R    0.01  
Forest_Green      5   10   +2       3.09    84.77     1.84    70.87    10.73     9.19     6.14    22.45    52.35    29.55P    0.68R    0.23  
Macclesfield      5    9   +3       3.15    85.46     4.44    52.96    10.04   -14.18     0.12     0.90     5.07     1.56P   18.13R    8.71  
Newport_County    5    9   +2       2.61    80.56     2.51    65.76    10.59     3.51     2.36    10.97    33.46    15.88P    2.07R    0.74  
Crewe             5    9   -1       2.93    82.68     0.12    64.67    10.82    -1.59     1.97     9.50    30.28    13.84P    2.88R    1.14  
Grimsby           5    8   +4       1.58    71.09     4.51    60.34    10.41    -0.86     0.72     4.25    17.85     6.82P    5.61R    2.27  
Cheltenham        5    8   +4       0.90    62.29     3.63    61.63    10.73     0.31     1.29     6.11    21.74     9.24P    4.59R    1.82  
Bradford          5    8   +3      -0.42    44.67     0.74    75.80    11.32    20.17    15.23    40.11    69.66    49.20P    0.29R    0.11  
Swindon           5    8   +2       0.95    62.95     1.67    69.52    10.80    10.13     5.07    19.31    47.74    26.34P    0.93R    0.31  
Cambridge_Utd     5    8   +1       2.28    78.87     2.49    57.89    10.24    -7.03     0.43     2.44    11.87     4.10P    8.56R    3.61  
Crawley_Town      5    7   +1       0.49    57.82     1.60    56.18    10.54    -9.38     0.33     2.08     9.85     3.49P   11.98R    5.41  
Leyton_Orient     5    7   -2       1.23    66.96    -0.43    50.10    10.82   -21.23     0.11     0.71     3.89     1.25P   29.31R   16.63  
Mansfield         5    6   +1      -2.80    17.60    -1.86    72.53    10.73    16.26     8.57    28.24    59.39    37.78P    0.43R    0.11  
Salford_City      5    6   +0       0.97    64.31     3.01    48.00    10.86   -21.81     0.06     0.43     2.82     0.83P   36.43R   22.28  
Port_Vale         5    6   -2       0.03    51.65    -0.91    54.29    10.23   -12.46     0.18     1.19     6.68     2.14P   15.33R    7.10  
Colchester        5    5   -1      -2.42    21.90    -1.81    64.60    10.84     4.45     2.11     9.86    30.86    15.35P    2.73R    1.00  
Morecambe         5    5   -2      -0.89    40.56    -0.64    51.77    10.45   -15.54     0.11     0.67     4.56     1.42P   22.78R   11.92  
Walsall           5    5   -3      -2.01    26.58    -3.30    68.62    11.41     8.23     4.92    18.24    44.66    25.74P    1.62R    0.59  
Northampton       5    4   -2      -2.78    18.32    -1.94    60.78    10.76    -0.86     0.93     5.15    19.85     8.67P    5.65R    2.47  
Carlisle          5    4   -4      -3.16    15.48    -4.47    59.46    10.94    -5.28     0.72     4.22    16.80     7.07P    7.74R    3.43  
Oldham            5    4   -4      -2.60    20.29    -3.72    63.77    10.87     1.52     1.78     8.19    28.03    13.25P    3.39R    1.38  
Stevenage         5    2   -4      -4.33     6.70    -3.40    56.00    10.42    -6.32     0.27     1.84     9.40     3.63P   11.63R    5.36  
Scunthorpe        5    1   -7      -6.77     1.17    -8.37    61.33    11.85    -0.88     1.72     7.50    23.27    11.96P    6.99R    3.32  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 August 2019, AFC_Fylde 0 0 Harrogate_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking              7   18   +9       8.48    98.60     9.16    73.30    11.92    11.76    11.26    43.97    18.13P    2.36R    0.15  
Bromley             7   17   +6       5.25    92.25     2.64    72.68    11.05     8.84     9.06    41.23    15.84P    1.83R    0.08  
Halifax             7   16   +9       5.95    94.71     8.24    71.82    10.43    12.87     6.82    38.48    13.59P    1.61R    0.07  
Solihull_Moors      7   13   +7       0.59    55.41     2.61    75.55    10.86    20.72    13.69    53.19    24.40P    0.94R    0.04  
Maidenhead          7   13   +5       3.69    84.11     5.50    59.69    10.47    -5.58     0.68     7.96     1.92P   16.69R    1.43  
Dover_Athletic      7   12   +1       2.12    71.20     0.54    67.18    10.80     3.36     3.25    23.74     7.62P    5.42R    0.29  
Stockport           7   11   +3       2.71    77.11     5.10    59.82    11.74    -4.03     1.25    10.83     3.25P   19.28R    2.43  
Torquay             7   11   -1       3.28    81.49     2.15    53.81    11.57   -18.82     0.35     4.13     1.08P   37.31R    6.84  
Sutton_United       7   10   +2      -0.37    46.19     0.82    62.24    10.74    -0.09     1.31    12.66     3.78P   11.60R    0.87  
Barnet              7   10   +1       0.20    52.72     0.63    68.46    10.54     8.56     3.74    27.22     9.73P    3.73R    0.18  
Dag_&_Red           7   10   -2       0.84    59.73    -1.29    63.05    10.76    -2.99     1.41    13.76     4.01P   10.71R    0.92  
Notts_County        7    9   +4      -3.99    14.13    -1.44    79.65    11.42    30.97    25.97    67.48    40.59P    0.51R    0.01  
Wrexham             7    9   -1      -1.15    38.38    -1.87    68.92    10.52     8.70     3.92    28.73    10.42P    3.41R    0.17  
AFC_Fylde           7    9   -4      -2.53    24.89    -6.95    68.69    10.83     5.27     4.32    28.27    10.66P    4.04R    0.21  
Harrogate_Town      7    8   -1      -1.65    33.96    -0.91    66.63    10.97     6.79     2.92    23.20     7.88P    6.14R    0.42  
Hartlepool          7    8   -2      -1.23    38.23    -1.42    57.27    10.60    -9.04     0.41     5.58     1.40P   23.78R    2.52  
Eastleigh           7    8   -3      -0.37    47.82    -1.05    59.31    10.64    -6.47     0.57     7.71     2.08P   18.22R    1.83  
Yeovil              7    7   -1      -4.71    10.54    -4.15    70.73    11.29    14.43     7.20    36.57    16.50P    3.13R    0.17  
Barrow              7    7   -3      -1.69    33.09    -1.69    57.86    10.59    -7.02     0.40     6.00     1.57P   21.92R    2.46  
Boreham_Wood        7    5   -1      -4.08    13.57    -0.24    55.18    10.40    -5.99     0.19     3.58     0.93P   28.80R    3.74  
Aldershot           7    5   -4      -2.68    23.55    -1.23    49.18    10.06   -17.40     0.03     0.82     0.17P   51.90R   10.57  
Chesterfield        7    4   -4      -6.12     4.64    -4.78    59.25    10.79    -1.53     0.72     8.10     2.54P   17.93R    1.98  
Ebbsfleet_United    7    4   -8      -4.36    11.29    -6.00    58.58    10.74    -6.53     0.52     6.70     1.90P   20.33R    2.34  
Chorley             7    4  -12      -1.32    37.96    -4.38    36.66    10.50   -46.77     0.01     0.09     0.02P   88.42R   60.24