Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 28 August 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 August 2019, Bournemouth 1 3 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         3    9   +6       2.00    81.05     0.60    85.01     8.73    53.75    32.50    79.13    92.24    97.01    99.55     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          3    7   +7       0.07    51.12     1.91    89.69     7.98    70.83    62.78    91.73    97.54    99.22    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           3    6   +0       1.47    71.81    -0.50    66.70     9.91    20.35     1.24     7.30    27.09    47.26    76.21     0.11R    0.01  
Leicester         3    5   +1       0.83    64.45     0.93    53.39     9.59     0.46     0.02     0.42     2.56     7.10    24.80     2.95R    0.45  
Man_Utd           3    4   +3      -1.18    32.52     1.43    64.99     9.66    23.21     0.86     5.56    21.34    40.41    72.07     0.12R    0.01  
Burnley           3    4   +2       0.60    63.80     3.15    44.03     9.25   -11.60     0.00     0.02     0.22     0.90     5.06    16.12R    4.08  
Tottenham         3    4   +1      -1.18    30.43    -0.66    69.67     9.49    28.80     2.11    11.70    38.95    60.88    85.75     0.04R    0.00  
Brighton          3    4   +1       0.19    55.72     1.40    38.56     8.77   -20.53     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.20     1.27    34.18R   10.60  
Sheff_Utd         3    4   +0       0.58    62.96     1.01    39.33     9.42   -21.94     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.36     2.21    33.02R   11.32  
Crystal_Palace    3    4   +0       0.31    58.32     0.64    48.50     9.43    -6.50     0.01     0.10     0.81     2.64    11.54     7.39R    1.48  
Bournemouth       3    4   -1       0.48    62.27     0.55    44.61     9.74   -15.58     0.00     0.03     0.42     1.41     6.67    16.35R    4.23  
Everton           3    4   -1      -0.85    37.80    -2.10    51.06     9.53    -3.20     0.02     0.19     1.48     4.55    17.80     4.46R    0.79  
Chelsea           3    4   -3      -1.02    35.05    -4.47    63.13     9.62    13.80     0.44     3.63    15.39    31.66    64.37     0.24R    0.03  
West_Ham          3    4   -3       0.64    64.52    -1.35    47.01     9.66   -12.95     0.00     0.08     0.65     2.11     9.56    10.80R    2.47  
Wolverhampton     3    3   +0      -0.73    37.84     0.52    46.89     9.35    -6.82     0.01     0.04     0.51     1.82     8.55     9.87R    2.06  
Aston_Villa       3    3   -1       0.18    53.52     1.33    36.85     9.62   -27.51     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.23     1.45    43.60R   18.36  
Norwich           3    3   -2       0.72    63.45     2.03    38.03     9.97   -28.82     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.37     2.08    40.01R   16.23  
Southampton       3    3   -2      -0.11    48.38    -0.25    41.90     9.32   -17.97     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.55     3.42    22.96R    6.52  
Newcastle         3    3   -2      -0.24    46.04    -0.68    45.91     9.15    -9.87     0.00     0.04     0.37     1.25     6.91    11.41R    2.34  
Watford           3    0   -6      -3.77     3.41    -5.47    36.06     9.11   -27.91     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.79    46.36R   19.01  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 August 2019, Swansea 3 0 Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     5   13   +8       4.76    94.49     5.96    82.17    11.03    27.72    27.90    45.37    79.71    55.01P    0.10R    0.01  
Swansea          5   13   +7       4.65    94.20     4.72    77.58    11.03    19.54    15.09    28.76    66.17    38.29P    0.31R    0.03  
Charlton         5   11   +4       4.12    90.87     3.96    63.30    11.49    -1.93     1.72     4.39    20.16     7.49P    7.28R    1.62  
Bristol_City     5   10   +3       2.90    82.69     2.60    70.65    11.14     9.52     5.27    12.10    41.68    19.03P    1.66R    0.25  
Fulham           5    9   +5       0.45    54.37     2.45    72.47    12.02    15.96     9.05    18.04    48.68    26.59P    1.62R    0.27  
Preston          5    9   +4       1.29    65.30     2.78    68.24    11.22     8.21     3.65     8.94    33.76    14.65P    2.69R    0.48  
Sheff_Wed        5    9   +3       1.69    70.26     2.32    66.24    10.92     4.51     2.35     5.86    26.83    10.67P    3.48R    0.67  
West_Brom        5    9   +2       0.64    57.08    -0.32    78.80    11.21    23.00    18.59    33.64    70.02    44.51P    0.28R    0.04  
Nott'm_Forest    5    8   +3       1.62    71.42     3.76    67.45    10.97     7.87     2.73     7.01    30.77    12.37P    3.09R    0.56  
Millwall         5    8   -2       2.72    83.14     0.32    58.61    10.47    -9.80     0.31     1.05     8.74     2.50P   13.02R    3.30  
Reading          5    7   +2       1.25    67.31     3.78    56.77    10.83    -7.93     0.30     0.99     7.49     2.18P   17.39R    4.90  
QPR              5    7   -1       0.76    61.06     0.06    53.39    10.76   -17.28     0.12     0.43     4.10     1.04P   27.17R    9.02  
Blackburn        5    7   -1       0.54    57.92    -0.36    60.56    10.86    -5.18     0.76     2.06    12.94     4.37P   10.12R    2.30  
Cardiff          5    7   -2      -0.68    41.88    -3.22    65.37    11.82     1.10     2.75     6.54    25.86    11.74P    5.64R    1.30  
Birmingham       5    7   -3       1.25    67.61    -1.31    57.86    10.75   -10.86     0.34     1.17     8.26     2.50P   15.16R    4.06  
Derby            5    6   +0      -1.72    29.23    -1.27    69.69    10.99    11.22     4.32    10.35    38.62    18.41P    1.92R    0.33  
Middlesbrough    5    5   -1      -2.92    17.22    -2.53    65.45    10.54     5.67     1.65     4.54    23.86     9.75P    3.58R    0.65  
Luton            5    4   -1      -1.89    28.75     0.57    57.85    11.96    -5.67     0.76     2.05    10.94     4.13P   17.48R    5.65  
Brentford        5    4   -2      -2.98    16.59    -2.25    64.36    11.06     4.11     1.58     4.34    22.38     8.84P    5.36R    1.17  
Hull             5    4   -3      -2.60    20.80    -2.46    57.40    11.15    -8.23     0.41     1.23     8.67     2.88P   16.80R    4.91  
Barnsley         5    4   -5      -2.28    24.22    -4.13    52.43    11.41   -17.13     0.21     0.62     4.13     1.40P   31.44R   11.82  
Wigan            5    3   -7      -2.40    21.21    -4.88    51.83    10.51   -18.33     0.06     0.24     2.64     0.67P   31.98R   11.31  
Huddersfield     5    1   -5      -4.85     4.18    -3.62    47.17    10.88   -19.27     0.02     0.11     1.28     0.36P   48.23R   22.80  
Stoke            5    1   -8      -5.08     3.52    -6.91    51.11    10.55   -16.83     0.05     0.19     2.32     0.64P   34.21R   12.56  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 August 2019, Bolton 0 5 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich               5   11   +7       2.83    82.00     5.04    79.00    11.44    29.33    21.73    39.29    75.55    50.00P    0.18R    0.00  
Blackpool             5   11   +5       3.20    84.93     3.61    68.18    10.45    10.58     3.41     8.84    38.78    15.76P    1.06R    0.03  
Wycombe               5   11   +4       3.68    88.84     3.29    60.26    10.72    -3.40     0.82     2.50    15.79     4.81P    6.57R    0.25  
Sunderland            5   11   +4       1.76    71.49     0.25    83.61    10.46    34.15    35.75    55.78    87.94    66.31P    0.02R    0.00  
Coventry              5   11   +4       3.49    87.71     3.03    64.89    10.39     4.92     1.72     4.93    27.20     9.60P    2.27R    0.06  
Fleetwood_Town        5   10   +4       2.06    75.01     2.41    69.14    10.70    12.58     4.31    10.81    42.77    18.40P    0.96R    0.03  
Lincoln_City          5    9   +6       1.94    72.55     5.73    62.31    11.32     5.61     1.62     4.37    22.32     8.21P    5.01R    0.25  
Shrewsbury            5    9   +2       1.61    69.60     1.17    63.45    10.27     3.82     1.15     3.60    22.80     7.73P    2.92R    0.08  
Doncaster             4    8   +2       1.21    65.87     0.00    70.60    11.09    13.79     6.25    14.36    47.98    22.88P    0.97R    0.02  
Peterborough          5    7   +3      -0.77    41.06     1.62    69.03    11.00    16.12     4.62    11.31    43.29    19.54P    1.29R    0.03  
Burton_Albion         5    7   +1      -0.09    49.72     0.63    67.53    10.68    11.59     2.88     8.14    37.14    15.57P    1.57R    0.05  
Bristol_Rovers        5    7   +0      -0.24    47.44    -0.65    58.67    10.34    -2.56     0.42     1.40    11.69     3.53P    7.99R    0.38  
Rochdale              5    6   +0       0.34    55.36     1.90    52.41    10.54   -12.15     0.13     0.44     4.59     1.09P   22.00R    1.95  
Rotherham             3    6   +0       1.41    69.59    -0.71    70.21    12.24    12.20     7.51    15.68    46.84    23.48P    1.73R    0.07  
Portsmouth            4    4   +0      -2.43    18.87    -1.49    71.33    11.10    19.35     6.95    16.20    51.62    26.50P    0.86R    0.02  
Oxford_Utd            5    4   -4      -1.58    31.73    -1.89    56.84    10.82    -5.62     0.33     1.08     9.84     2.92P   12.10R    0.87  
MK_Dons               4    4   -4      -0.73    42.49    -2.75    49.31    11.55   -20.18     0.11     0.35     3.68     0.98P   33.89R    5.00  
Tranmere              4    3   +0      -1.41    29.91     1.87    42.97    11.02   -24.93     0.02     0.07     0.96     0.23P   55.37R   11.36  
Gillingham            4    2   -2      -2.61    17.55    -0.62    53.60    10.82    -7.84     0.23     0.66     5.83     1.74P   19.00R    1.69  
AFC_Wimbledon         5    1   -5      -3.76     8.18    -1.65    45.66    10.11   -18.09     0.01     0.03     1.00     0.20P   44.15R    6.29  
Accrington_Stanley    4    1   -5      -3.30    10.69    -3.18    46.27    10.60   -20.67     0.02     0.10     1.50     0.31P   42.81R    6.50  
Southend              5    0  -10      -5.34     1.54    -7.54    44.99    10.38   -24.80     0.02     0.07     0.87     0.18P   47.75R    7.92  
Bolton                4  -11  -12      -3.20    11.38   -10.08    29.84    10.78   -33.81     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   89.53R   57.13  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 August 2019, Bradford 0 1 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            5   11   +3       3.14    85.09     1.50    74.45    10.67    13.87    11.03    33.66    65.22    41.75P    0.21R    0.09  
Plymouth          5   10   +6       1.10    63.33     2.84    81.78    11.60    29.45    33.28    61.10    84.05    68.21P    0.08R    0.03  
Forest_Green      5   10   +2       3.10    84.81     1.84    70.87    10.84     9.18     6.40    22.49    51.99    29.58P    0.67R    0.24  
Macclesfield      5    9   +3       3.12    84.84     4.38    53.23    10.05   -13.78     0.12     0.91     5.45     1.59P   17.70R    8.08  
Newport_County    5    9   +2       2.60    80.33     2.51    65.87    10.61     3.62     2.38    10.97    34.01    15.94P    2.06R    0.72  
Crewe             5    9   -1       2.95    82.72     0.12    64.71    10.77    -1.51     2.02     9.46    29.98    13.53P    2.79R    1.05  
Grimsby           5    8   +4       1.62    71.66     4.57    59.93    10.44    -1.40     0.72     3.99    16.88     6.54P    5.84R    2.28  
Cheltenham        5    8   +4       0.84    61.31     3.55    61.92    10.73     0.70     1.25     6.22    22.69     9.51P    4.43R    1.83  
Bradford          5    8   +3      -0.42    44.72     0.72    75.80    11.48    20.17    15.39    40.00    69.18    48.88P    0.34R    0.09  
Swindon           5    8   +2       0.94    62.96     1.64    69.69    10.78    10.37     5.30    19.65    48.21    26.60P    0.89R    0.29  
Cambridge_Utd     5    8   +1       2.32    79.23     2.55    57.78    10.29    -7.21     0.39     2.49    12.01     4.26P    8.76R    3.74  
Crawley_Town      5    7   +1       0.48    57.36     1.58    56.09    10.53    -9.52     0.31     2.02     9.71     3.44P   11.90R    5.39  
Leyton_Orient     5    7   -2       1.24    67.12    -0.42    49.80    10.66   -21.60     0.09     0.58     3.58     1.11P   29.68R   16.87  
Mansfield         5    6   +1      -2.80    17.48    -1.86    72.49    10.85    16.16     8.49    28.36    59.11    38.04P    0.45R    0.14  
Salford_City      5    6   +0       0.99    64.62     3.04    47.70    10.82   -22.27     0.06     0.42     2.71     0.76P   37.48R   23.10  
Port_Vale         5    6   -2      -0.00    50.94    -0.93    54.43    10.28   -12.31     0.17     1.31     6.90     2.29P   14.92R    6.95  
Colchester        5    5   -1      -2.44    21.93    -1.83    64.60    10.76     4.47     2.05     9.59    30.78    14.97P    2.56R    0.97  
Morecambe         5    5   -2      -0.85    40.86    -0.62    51.71    10.30   -15.61     0.08     0.67     4.42     1.34P   22.67R   11.91  
Walsall           5    5   -3      -2.01    26.81    -3.29    68.58    11.29     8.10     4.84    17.91    44.40    25.39P    1.47R    0.54  
Northampton       5    4   -2      -2.85    17.66    -2.04    61.25    10.92    -0.16     1.20     5.92    21.04     9.58P    5.48R    2.36  
Carlisle          5    4   -4      -3.11    15.74    -4.40    59.20    11.00    -5.58     0.70     4.21    16.29     7.02P    7.96R    3.56  
Oldham            5    4   -4      -2.62    19.74    -3.72    63.79    10.87     1.53     1.76     8.50    27.91    13.49P    3.48R    1.33  
Stevenage         5    2   -4      -4.36     6.67    -3.43    56.36    10.50    -5.79     0.24     1.97    10.10     3.97P   11.16R    5.03  
Scunthorpe        5    1   -7      -6.75     1.24    -8.34    61.36    11.90    -0.85     1.74     7.59    23.38    12.19P    7.01R    3.38  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 August 2019, AFC_Fylde 0 0 Harrogate_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking              7   18   +9       8.48    98.75     9.15    73.48    11.93    12.09    11.51    44.87    18.42P    2.40R    0.12  
Bromley             7   17   +6       5.37    92.61     2.83    72.32    11.02     8.21     8.55    40.14    14.89P    2.08R    0.08  
Halifax             7   16   +9       5.96    94.82     8.27    71.76    10.28    12.72     6.44    38.27    13.11P    1.55R    0.07  
Solihull_Moors      7   13   +7       0.60    55.67     2.67    75.56    10.89    20.80    13.82    53.16    24.75P    0.86R    0.03  
Maidenhead          7   13   +5       3.73    84.19     5.57    59.55    10.45    -5.87     0.67     7.79     1.87P   16.89R    1.47  
Dover_Athletic      7   12   +1       2.08    71.02     0.48    67.34    10.78     3.56     3.39    23.91     7.76P    5.14R    0.35  
Stockport           7   11   +3       2.73    77.15     5.10    59.79    11.72    -4.03     1.21    10.65     3.04P   19.15R    2.42  
Torquay             7   11   -1       3.27    81.47     2.11    53.81    11.65   -18.89     0.42     4.28     1.15P   37.40R    7.04  
Sutton_United       7   10   +2      -0.33    47.00     0.88    62.00    10.68    -0.42     1.20    12.28     3.61P   11.95R    0.93  
Barnet              7   10   +1       0.21    52.83     0.65    68.31    10.40     8.32     3.37    26.44     9.17P    3.57R    0.21  
Dag_&_Red           7   10   -2       0.88    59.84    -1.28    62.99    10.63    -3.10     1.30    13.24     3.68P   10.58R    0.75  
Notts_County        7    9   +4      -3.99    14.05    -1.42    79.78    11.45    31.18    26.57    67.89    41.50P    0.50R    0.02  
Wrexham             7    9   -1      -1.15    38.00    -1.87    68.76    10.47     8.46     3.84    28.10    10.36P    3.42R    0.18  
AFC_Fylde           7    9   -4      -2.54    24.86    -6.97    69.04    10.87     5.82     4.49    29.63    11.27P    3.92R    0.21  
Harrogate_Town      7    8   -1      -1.64    34.21    -0.90    66.60    11.03     6.68     3.07    23.10     8.00P    6.19R    0.42  
Hartlepool          7    8   -2      -1.23    38.21    -1.42    57.26    10.68    -9.05     0.37     5.61     1.36P   23.98R    2.70  
Eastleigh           7    8   -3      -0.39    47.21    -1.05    59.20    10.60    -6.64     0.58     7.61     2.01P   18.48R    1.95  
Yeovil              7    7   -1      -4.73    10.28    -4.15    70.82    11.25    14.59     7.28    37.10    16.85P    2.97R    0.17  
Barrow              7    7   -3      -1.68    33.26    -1.68    57.86    10.54    -7.10     0.44     5.97     1.48P   21.51R    2.39  
Boreham_Wood        7    5   -1      -4.12    13.22    -0.26    55.09    10.42    -6.05     0.18     3.66     0.93P   29.39R    3.92  
Aldershot           7    5   -4      -2.71    23.19    -1.30    49.20     9.99   -17.27     0.02     0.86     0.19P   52.30R   10.25  
Chesterfield        7    4   -4      -6.12     4.57    -4.77    59.09    10.75    -1.75     0.71     7.85     2.40P   18.22R    2.05  
Ebbsfleet_United    7    4   -8      -4.47    10.77    -6.15    59.06    10.76    -5.79     0.55     7.52     2.20P   19.05R    2.06  
Chorley             7    4  -12      -1.34    37.48    -4.49    36.73    10.40   -46.47     0.00     0.07     0.00P   88.51R   60.23